Moderna (MRNA) — Company Research
Last Updated: 2 June 2026
Moderna is the mRNA pioneer whose COVID-19 vaccine made it a household name and, briefly, one of the most profitable companies in biotech. That windfall is now firmly in the rear-view mirror: full-year 2025 revenue fell about 40% to roughly $1.9 billion as COVID vaccination normalised into a small seasonal market, and the company posted a GAAP net loss of $(2.8) billion. The 2026 investment question is whether Moderna can stabilise its respiratory franchise, win approvals for new vaccines (flu, flu-plus-COVID combinations) and advance its oncology and rare-disease pipeline before its cash pile runs too low. This report sets out the reported figures, the cash runway and the catalysts and risks. See our Live Charts for pricing and the Economic Calendar for macro events.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | MRNA (NASDAQ) |
| Sector | Healthcare — Biotechnology (vaccines / mRNA) |
| CEO / Leadership | Stéphane Bancel (Chief Executive Officer, co-founder); Stephen Hoge, M.D. (President) |
| Headquarters | Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA |
| Employees | ~5,800 (FY2025); reducing toward ~4,700 under 2026 cost plan |
| Market cap | ~$18.75 billion (1 Jun 2026, ~$47.26/share) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | ~$1.9 billion (-40% vs 2024) |
| GAAP EPS (FY2025) | $(7.26) (net loss) |
| Cash & investments | ~$8.1 billion at 31 Dec 2025 (vs $9.5bn a year earlier) |
| Dividend | None |
| 52-week range | $22.28 – $59.55 |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Platform optionality: The mRNA platform is reusable across vaccines, oncology and rare disease, giving Moderna many shots on goal from one technology base rather than a single-product story.
- New respiratory launches: Next-generation COVID vaccine mNEXSPIKE, RSV vaccine mRESVIA, a standalone flu vaccine (mRNA-1010, US PDUFA 5 Aug 2026) and flu-plus-COVID combinations could rebuild a multi-product seasonal franchise.
- Oncology catalyst: Intismeran (individualised neoantigen therapy, partnered with Merck) has pivotal melanoma data expected, offering a potentially large new market well beyond vaccines.
- Cost discipline: Management is cutting GAAP operating expenses and headcount in 2026, narrowing the loss and extending the runway.
- Balance-sheet cushion: ~$8.1 billion of cash and investments at year-end 2025 plus an undrawn credit facility give time for the pipeline to mature, even with continued cash burn.
Bear Case
- Revenue collapse: Revenue has fallen from ~$19.3 billion (2022) to ~$1.9 billion (2025); the COVID franchise is a fraction of its former self and still shrinking.
- Sustained losses and cash burn: A $(2.8) billion FY2025 GAAP loss and continued burn mean year-end 2026 cash is guided down to ~$4.5–$5.0 billion.
- Regulatory and political risk: mRNA vaccines face heightened US political and FDA scrutiny; the flu vaccine received a Refusal-to-File letter in early 2026 before a PDUFA date was later set.
- Litigation overhang: A $950 million Arbutus/Genevant patent settlement charge hit Q1 2026, with up to $1.3 billion more contingent on an appellate ruling.
- Pipeline binary risk: The investment case leans on unapproved products; trial failures or slow uptake would leave Moderna burning cash with limited revenue.
3. Business Segments
Moderna operates as a single mRNA-medicines business. Revenue is disclosed by product, and in 2025 it remained dominated by COVID-19 vaccine sales, with small contributions from RSV and from grants and collaborations.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE) | ~90% of product sales | Seasonal COVID-19 vaccines; roughly 80% of 2025 revenue came from international markets. |
| RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) | <5% | RSV vaccine for older adults, launched in 2024; sales still small. |
| Other revenue | ~7% (~$126m) | Grant revenue, collaboration and licensing income. |
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Moderna designs, manufactures and sells mRNA-based vaccines, today almost entirely seasonal COVID-19 products, sold to governments, pharmacies and healthcare systems. Because demand is now seasonal, revenue is heavily concentrated in the autumn/winter vaccination period, making quarterly results extremely uneven.
Unit economics. Approved mRNA vaccines can carry healthy gross margins, but Moderna is currently spending far more on R&D (~$3.3–3.4 billion in 2025) and SG&A (~$1.1 billion) than its product sales support, which is why the company is loss-making and burning cash while it builds new franchises.
Moat. The durable advantages are the mRNA platform, manufacturing know-how and a deep patent and trade-secret estate, plus speed of design. The weakness is that the platform's commercial value today rests on a narrow, declining product set; the moat only widens if new approvals (flu, combinations, oncology) convert the technology into multiple revenue streams.
5. Financial Health
The five-year revenue table captures the extraordinary rise and fall of the COVID franchise — from a near-$19 billion peak to under $2 billion — and the swing from large profits to sustained losses.
| Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE, $m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18,471 | — | — | — | None | Nil |
| 2022 | 19,263 | +4.3% | — | — | None | Nil |
| 2023 | 6,848 | -64.5% | — | — | None | Nil |
| 2024 | 3,235 | -52.8% | — | — | None | Nil |
| 2025 | 1,900 | -41.3% | $(7.26) | — | None | 600 |
Moderna reports on a GAAP basis and does not publish a meaningful adjusted EPS, so that column is left blank. Long-term debt is minimal: the company carried essentially no term debt until a $600 million initial draw on its $1.5 billion credit facility in 2025. Quarterly detail for fiscal 2025 (most recent first) shows revenue heavily concentrated in the third quarter, the seasonal vaccination peak.
| Quarter | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | ~634 | — | — |
| Q3 2025 | 1,016 | — | — |
| Q2 2025 | 142 | — | — |
| Q1 2025 | 108 | — | — |
| FY2025 total | ~1,900 | — | $(7.26) |
Balance sheet and cash (FY2025): cash and investments ~$8.1 billion at 31 December 2025 (down from $9.5 billion a year earlier), including a $600 million credit-facility draw; no dividend. The first quarter of 2026 showed revenue of $389 million and a GAAP net loss of $(1.3) billion, or $(3.40) per share, including a $950 million non-recurring litigation-settlement charge; excluding that charge the net loss was about $(0.5) billion.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$18.75bn (~$47.26/share × ~397m shares, 1 Jun 2026) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | n/m — FY2025 GAAP net loss of $(7.26)/share |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — company expects continued GAAP losses in 2026 |
| P/S (TTM) | ~9.9x (market cap ~$18.75bn / FY2025 revenue ~$1.9bn) |
| Enterprise value | ~$11.7bn (market cap ~$18.75bn + debt ~$1.0bn − cash & investments ~$8.1bn per FY2025 balance sheet) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | n/m — negative EBITDA (FY2025 operating loss; EBITDA = operating income + D&A is negative) |
| P/FCF | n/m — negative free cash flow (operating cash burn; FCF = operating CF − capex is negative) |
| 52-week high | $59.55 |
| 52-week low | $22.28 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~20% (~63m shares short) |
| Days to cover | ~6 days |
7. Growth Drivers
Moderna's growth thesis rests on broadening from a single seasonal COVID product into a portfolio of respiratory vaccines and, eventually, oncology and rare-disease medicines. The near-term respiratory build-out includes mNEXSPIKE (next-generation COVID, approved), mRESVIA (RSV), the standalone flu vaccine mRNA-1010 (US PDUFA goal date 5 August 2026) and flu-plus-COVID combinations such as mRNA-1083, which has secured European Commission authorisation as mCOMBRIAX and is under review elsewhere. Management's framing is a future "seasonal respiratory franchise" that bundles COVID, flu and RSV.
Beyond vaccines, the highest-value opportunity is oncology: intismeran autogene, the individualised neoantigen therapy partnered with Merck, has pivotal data expected in melanoma and adjuvant settings. Additional pipeline readouts in 2026 span norovirus, propionic acidemia and other rare diseases. Crucially, growth must be paired with continued cost cuts: management is targeting up to 10% revenue growth and lower GAAP operating expenses in 2026 to slow the cash burn while these programmes mature.
8. Peer Comparison
| Peer | Market cap (Jun 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Pfizer (PFE) | ~$140bn | Comirnaty COVID partner of BioNTech; diversified large-cap pharma |
| BioNTech (BNTX) | ~$25bn | mRNA peer; COVID partner of Pfizer, building oncology pipeline |
| Novavax (NVAX) | ~$1–2bn | Protein-based COVID vaccine maker; much smaller scale |
| GSK (GSK) | ~$80bn | Leading RSV vaccine (Arexvy) competitor to mRESVIA |
9. Insider Activity
Recent Form 4 activity has been led by routine, pre-arranged executive selling rather than open-market buying. CEO and co-founder Stéphane Bancel leads the company; President Stephen Hoge accounts for the most visible 2026 transactions, executed under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Hoge (President) | 15 May 2026 | Sale | 53,336 | ~$48.40 | ~$2.58m | Rule 10b5-1 |
| Stephen Hoge (President) | 23 Feb 2026 | Sale | 160,009 | ~$48.84 | ~$7.81m | Rule 10b5-1 |
10. Key Risks
- Demand decline (Commercial): COVID vaccination volumes continue to normalise downward; the core revenue base is small and shrinking.
- Liquidity / cash burn (Financial): Sustained losses are draining the balance sheet, with year-end 2026 cash guided to ~$4.5–$5.0 billion; persistent burn raises longer-term funding risk if pipeline revenue is slow to arrive.
- Regulatory / political (Regulatory): mRNA vaccines face elevated US political and FDA scrutiny; the flu vaccine drew a Refusal-to-File letter before a PDUFA date was set, illustrating the unpredictability.
- Litigation (Legal): The Arbutus/Genevant LNP patent settlement triggered a $950 million charge, with up to $1.3 billion more contingent on appeal; other patent disputes remain.
- Pipeline execution (Operational): The valuation leans on unapproved products; trial failures, delays or weak launch uptake would undermine the recovery case.
- Concentration and seasonality (Macro): Heavy reliance on a single product category and a single selling season makes results volatile and exposed to vaccination-rate shifts.
11. Recent Developments
- 01 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue of $389 million and a GAAP net loss of $(1.3) billion, or $(3.40)/share, including a $950 million litigation-settlement charge; management reiterated plans for up to 10% revenue growth and lower operating expenses in 2026.
- 03 March 2026 — Patent settlement. Moderna resolved global LNP patent litigation with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences, recording a $950 million Q1 charge (payable July 2026) plus up to $1.3 billion contingent on an appellate ruling.
- February 2026 — Flu vaccine regulatory swing. The FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter for the standalone flu vaccine mRNA-1010 before later assigning a PDUFA goal date of 5 August 2026.
- 13 February 2026 — FY2025 results. Full-year revenue of ~$1.9 billion (-40%) and a GAAP net loss of $(2.8) billion, or $(7.26)/share; year-end cash and investments of $8.1 billion.
12. Key Dates
- 05 Aug 2026 — FDA PDUFA goal date for standalone flu vaccine mRNA-1010.
- 30 Jul 2026 — Expected second-quarter 2026 results.
- 12 Nov 2026 — Moderna Analyst/R&D Day.
- Expected Dec 2026 — Pivotal readouts including intismeran in melanoma, norovirus and propionic acidemia.
Dates beyond reported results are management's stated expectations and may shift.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Moderna is an mRNA-platform biotech whose revenue today comes almost entirely from seasonal COVID-19 vaccines, sold mainly to governments and health systems. FY2025 revenue fell ~40% to ~$1.9 billion and the company posted a GAAP net loss of $(2.8) billion, or $(7.26) per share, ending the year with $8.1 billion of cash and investments; management targets up to 10% revenue growth and lower operating expenses in 2026. The structural driver is converting the platform into a broader respiratory franchise (flu, flu/COVID combinations, RSV) and, longer term, oncology via intismeran.
What would confirm or break it. The case is confirmed if new approvals — notably the flu vaccine (PDUFA 5 Aug 2026) and combination vaccines — plus positive oncology readouts rebuild revenue while cost cuts slow the burn. It is invalidated by the liquidity/cash-burn risk worsening, further regulatory setbacks for mRNA vaccines, or pipeline failures that leave the company spending heavily with little revenue.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ2 2026 earnings (58 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Platform optionality:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Liquidity / cash burn (Financial):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 2 Jun 2026.