Moderna (MRNA) — Company Research

Last Updated: 18 Oct 2026

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is a US biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. Its revenue still comes almost entirely from COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE), alongside the RSV vaccine mRESVIA. Revenue has fallen every year since the 2022 pandemic peak, and losses remain heavy. In 2026, however, Moderna won US approval for the first mRNA flu vaccine (mFLUSIVA), and its personalised cancer therapy with Merck met its Phase 3 primary endpoint in melanoma. The shares rose roughly sevenfold over twelve months. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	MRNA / NASDAQ (Nasdaq-100 member since 09 Oct 2026)
Headquarters	Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
CEO / Leadership	Stéphane Bancel, CEO; Stephen Hoge, President; James (Jamey) Mock, CFO; Juan Andres, COO (from 05 Oct 2026)
Sector	Healthcare — biotechnology (mRNA vaccines and therapeutics)
Employees	~4,700 full-time in 18 countries at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K), down from ~5,800 a year earlier
Market cap	~$87.0bn ($218.01 at 16 Oct 2026 close × ~399.2m shares at 24 Jul 2026)
FY2025 Revenue	$1,944m (−39.9%)
FY2025 GAAP net loss	−$2,822m (−$7.26 per diluted share)
2026 guidance	Revenue growth of up to 10% on 2025, split about half US and half international; year-end cash and investments $4.7–$5.2bn (set on 31 Jul 2026, before the $2.6bn convertible-note issue)
Dividend	None paid

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• First mRNA flu vaccine approved: The FDA approved mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) for adults aged 50 and over in Aug 2026, Moderna’s fifth approved product globally, and the EU approved the flu/COVID combination mCOMBRIAX in Apr 2026.
• Oncology Phase 3 success: INTerpath-001, testing intismeran autogene with Merck’s KEYTRUDA in resected melanoma, met its recurrence-free survival primary endpoint and a key secondary endpoint at an interim analysis. The data are a late-breaking abstract at ESMO on 24 Oct 2026.
• Cost base coming down: Q2 2026 R&D fell 7% and SG&A 6% year on year. Cash costs are targeted at about $4.2bn in 2026 and $3.5–$3.9bn in 2027, and cash breakeven is targeted for 2028.
• Funded runway: Cash and investments were $6.9bn at 30 Jun 2026, before net proceeds of about $2.56bn from 0% convertible notes due 2032. Further draws are available on the Ares credit facility.
• Onshore manufacturing partnerships: Moderna-owned plants in the UK, Canada and Australia supply long-term government contracts, which brings stand-ready revenue and steadier international demand.

Bear Case

• Shrinking core revenue: Revenue fell from $19,263m in FY2022 to $1,944m in FY2025. Q2 2026 revenue was just $145m, and US product sales fell to $70m from $88m a year earlier.
• Heavy losses and cash burn: The FY2025 net loss was $2,822m. Over the twelve months to 30 Jun 2026, operating cash outflow was about $1.07bn and free cash flow about −$1.24bn, and Moderna paid $950m in Jul 2026 to settle with Arbutus/Genevant.
• US vaccine policy uncertainty: The 2026-27 COVID vaccines are approved only for adults aged 65 and over and higher-risk younger people, and ACIP has issued no flu or COVID recommendations for the season while litigation over its reconstitution continues.
• Valuation after a sevenfold rally: The shares rose from a 52-week low of $22.28 to $242.29, about 39x trailing sales, while senior executives sold stock under 10b5-1 plans.
• Patent litigation: GSK suits go to trial in 2027, a Bayer (Monsanto) suit was allowed to proceed on 28 Sep 2026, and the EPO revoked a key Moderna patent Moderna had asserted against Pfizer/BioNTech.

3. Business Segments

Moderna operates in a single segment. Percentages use FY2025 total revenue of $1,944m: net product sales were $1,818m and other revenue $126m. By geography, total revenue was about $1.2bn in the US and $745m internationally.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
COVID-19 vaccines	93.1% ($1,810m)	Spikevax and the next-generation mNEXSPIKE, reported together, sold to governments, wholesalers, distributors and retail pharmacies.
RSV vaccine	0.4% ($8m)	mRESVIA, approved for older and at-risk adults; an EU joint-procurement contract covers up to 24m doses for six countries.
Other revenue	6.5% ($126m)	Grants, collaboration, licensing and royalty income, plus stand-ready manufacturing revenue from government partnerships.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Moderna sells seasonal respiratory vaccines through US wholesalers, distributors and retailers and through government contracts and tenders abroad. Sales cluster in the second half of the year: 55% of 2026 second-half revenue is expected in Q3. Product gross margin swings widely, from about 79% in Q3 2025 to near zero in Q2 2026, when $93m cost of sales included $41m of inventory write-downs and $23m of unutilised capacity.

Platform economics. One mRNA platform and shared manufacturing support every product. The aim is to add flu, combination and norovirus vaccines and individualised cancer therapies to the same plant network. Since 2022 Moderna has exited eight contract manufacturers and built its own plants in Laval (Canada), Harwell (UK) and Clayton (Australia), plus Norwood and Marlborough in Massachusetts.

Moat. Moderna’s edge is a decade of mRNA design, lipid-nanoparticle and manufacturing know-how, which lets it develop new vaccines quickly. Its intellectual property is contested, though: it paid $950m to settle the Arbutus/Genevant case and faces GSK and Bayer suits, so the platform is defensible but not exclusive.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Moderna’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$18,471m	+2,200.2%	$28.29	$28.29†	Nil	Nil‡
FY2022	$19,263m	+4.3%	$20.12	$20.12†	Nil	Nil‡
FY2023	$6,848m	−64.4%	−$12.33	−$12.33†	Nil	Nil‡
FY2024	$3,236m	−52.7%	−$9.28	−$9.28†	Nil	$0m
FY2025	$1,944m	−39.9%	−$7.26	−$7.26†	Nil	$590m

† Moderna reports GAAP results only and publishes no adjusted EPS, so the GAAP figure is repeated. ‡ Moderna had no borrowings before its Ares term loan of up to $1.5bn, which closed on 20 Nov 2025 with $600m drawn; FY2024 non-current long-term debt was $0m in SEC XBRL. FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 revenue of $803m, before COVID vaccine sales began at scale. Moderna has never paid a dividend; it repurchased $3,329m of stock in 2022 and $1,153m in 2023.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$145m	−$1.97†	−$1.97
Q1 2026	$389m	−$3.40†	−$3.40
Q4 2025	$678m	−$2.11†	−$2.11
Q3 2025	$1,016m	−$0.51†	−$0.51
FY2025 total	$1,944m	−$7.26†	−$7.26

Q1 2026 GAAP EPS includes a −$2.22 per share hit from the Arbutus/Genevant settlement, booked mainly in cost of sales ($878m). Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, revenue was about $2,228m and GAAP EPS about −$7.99.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: −$1.87bn in FY2025; ~−$1.07bn trailing twelve months to 30 Jun 2026.
• Capital expenditure: $0.19bn in FY2025; ~$0.17bn trailing twelve months, against 2026 guidance of $0.2–$0.3bn.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $0.21bn in FY2025; ~$0.23bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: $591m of non-current long-term debt (the Ares term loan), with no current portion. After the quarter, Moderna issued $2.6bn of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 01 Mar 2032 (conversion price ~$210.58), priced on 28 Aug 2026.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: cash and equivalents $1,723m, current investments $3,415m and non-current investments $1,772m, $6.91bn in total. Moderna paid $950m to Arbutus/Genevant in Jul 2026. Stockholders’ equity was $6,761m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$87.0bn (price $218.01 at 16 Oct 2026 close × ~399.2m shares)
Enterprise value	~$80.7bn (market cap ~$87.0bn + total debt ~$0.59bn − cash and investments ~$6.91bn per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet). Adjusted for the $950m Jul 2026 settlement payment and the $2.6bn Sep 2026 convertible notes (net proceeds ~$2.56bn), it is ~$81.7bn
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m — TTM GAAP EPS is ~−$7.99 (Q3 2025–Q2 2026)
P/E (forward)	n/m — Moderna gives no EPS guidance, and its cost and cash guidance implies continued losses in 2026, with cash breakeven targeted for 2028
P/S (TTM)	~39.1x ($87.0bn / ~$2.23bn TTM revenue)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	n/m — TTM EBITDA is ~−$3.09bn (operating loss ~−$3.32bn + D&A ~$0.23bn), including the ~$0.9bn Q1 2026 settlement charge
P/FCF	n/m — TTM FCF is ~−$1.24bn (operating CF −$1.07bn − capex $0.17bn); FY2025 FCF was ~−$2.07bn (−$1.87bn − $0.19bn)
Price/book	~12.9x ($87.0bn / stockholders’ equity $6.76bn at 30 Jun 2026)
52-week high	$242.29 (15 Oct 2026, intraday)
52-week low	$22.28 (21 Nov 2025, intraday)
Short interest (% of float)	~8.7% (30.9m shares at 30 Sep 2026 settlement, MarketBeat; FINRA data show ~7.7% of shares outstanding), down from a peak of 71.5m shares on 30 Jan 2026
Days to cover	~1.8 days

7. What Are They Building

Moderna is trying to turn a single-product COVID business into a broader respiratory-vaccine and oncology company before cash breakeven in 2028. It targets up to six approved seasonal products by 2028 and up to three new launches in 2027–28.

• Seasonal respiratory vaccines: mFLUSIVA (flu) won US approval in Aug 2026, with traditional approval for ages 50–64 and accelerated approval for 65 and over. mCOMBRIAX (flu plus COVID, mRNA-1083) is approved in the EU and under review in Japan, Canada and Australia, while Moderna awaits FDA guidance on refiling in the US.
• Individualised cancer therapy: Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157, with Merck) is in nine Phase 2/3 trials across melanoma, lung, bladder and kidney cancer. INTerpath-001 was positive in melanoma, Phase 3 work in Stage I lung cancer has started, and a dedicated plant in Marlborough, MA has been built for commercial supply.
• Norovirus: The mRNA-1403 Phase 3 did not meet the criteria for early success at its interim analysis. The trial stays blinded and Moderna is preparing to enrol an additional cohort.
• Rare disease: The registrational study of mRNA-3927 in propionic acidemia is fully enrolled, and partner Recordati expects data by the end of 2026. The pivotal-trial decision for mRNA-3705 (methylmalonic acidemia) waits on those data.
• Pruned programmes: The congenital CMV vaccine was discontinued after its Phase 3 failure, HSV and VZV vaccines will not advance to Phase 3, and several flu combination candidates are paused. Smaller programmes include pandemic flu (mRNA-1018, with CEPI) and a Bundibugyo Ebola vaccine (mRNA-1469) that entered Phase 1 on 04 Aug 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Moderna competes with Pfizer/BioNTech in COVID vaccines, with GSK, Sanofi, CSL Seqirus and Pfizer in flu and RSV, and with Novavax’s protein-based COVID shot. Merck is also its oncology partner. Market caps are mid-Oct 2026 figures, and metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Merck & Co. (MRK)	~$360bn	FY2025 worldwide sales $65.0bn, including Gardasil ~$5.2bn (−39%), per Merck Q4 2025 release
Pfizer (PFE)	~$169bn	FY2025 revenue ~$62.6bn, per Pfizer FY2025 results release
GSK (GSK)	~$99bn	FY2025 total sales £32.7bn, including vaccines £9.2bn, per GSK FY2025 results
Sanofi (SNY)	~$97bn	FY2025 Beyfortus (RSV antibody) sales ~€1.8bn, per Sanofi FY2025 results
CSL (CSL.AX), owner of Seqirus	~US$64bn	FY2025 (year to Jun 2025) group revenue ~US$15.6bn, per CSL results
BioNTech (BNTX)	~$22.7bn	FY2025 revenue €2,869.9m, per BioNTech FY2025 results release
Novavax (NVAX)	~$1.9bn	FY2025 total revenue $1,123m, per Novavax FY2025 results release

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Stéphane Bancel is CEO and a director. Stephen Hoge is President and since 16 Jun 2026 has had operating oversight of R&D, manufacturing and commercial. James (Jamey) Mock has been CFO since Sep 2022. In 2026 David Berman became Chief Development Officer (02 Mar) and Ester Banque Chief Commercial Officer (15 Jun). Former Biogen CFO Michael McDonnell joined the board on 08 Jul. Juan Andres returned as Chief Operating Officer on 05 Oct, when Jerh Collins retired. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026; the recent sales below are mostly under Rule 10b5-1 plans.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Stephen Hoge (President)	15 Oct 2026	Option exercise and sale	39,145	$220.72	~$8.64m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Jun 2026
Stephen Hoge (President)	14 Oct 2026	Option exercise and sale	39,224	~$213.47–$214.15	~$8.37m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Jun 2026
Stephen Hoge (President)	15 Sep 2026	Sale	40,281	$146.07	~$5.88m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Jun 2026
Stephen Hoge (President)	14 Sep 2026	Sale	40,294	$144.13	~$5.81m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Jun 2026
James Mock (CFO)	10 Sep 2026	Option exercise and sale	34,836	$134.49	~$4.69m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 09 Jun 2026
Shannon Thyme Klinger (General Counsel)	01 Sep 2026	Sale	3,471	$139.95	~$0.49m	Plan status not verified
Stéphane Bancel (CEO)	05 Aug 2026	Option exercise and sale	499,246	~$57.52 (weighted)	~$28.7m	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 04 May 2026; cashless exercise of options expiring 10 Aug 2026

10. Key Risks

• US vaccine policy (Regulatory): A Mar 2026 court order stayed the appointments and votes of the reconstituted ACIP, and the First Circuit heard the appeal on 06 Oct 2026. There is no federal flu or COVID recommendation for 2026-27, and FDA labels for the new COVID vaccines are limited to adults aged 65 and over and higher-risk younger people.
• Cash burn (Financial): Operating cash outflow was $1.16bn in H1 2026, and Moderna paid the $950m settlement in Jul 2026. Year-end cash guidance of $4.7–$5.2bn predates the convertible notes, and breakeven is not targeted until 2028.
• Leverage and dilution (Financial): Moderna now carries the $591m Ares loan plus $2.6bn of convertible notes due 2032, convertible at about $210.58 per share. The capped call offsets dilution only up to $392.62.
• Patent litigation (Legal): GSK’s Spikevax and mRESVIA suits go to trial in Delaware in Jul and Aug 2027. A Delaware judge let Bayer’s mRNA patent suit proceed on 28 Sep 2026, and in Sep 2026 the EPO revoked EP 3 590 949, the patent Moderna had asserted against Pfizer/BioNTech.
• COVID demand and concentration (Commercial): COVID vaccines were 93% of FY2025 revenue. US COVID demand keeps falling, inventory write-downs were $291m in FY2025, and mRESVIA sold only $8m that year.
• Clinical and launch execution (Operational): Much of the valuation rests on the full INTerpath-001 data, on regulators accepting intismeran, and on the mFLUSIVA launch. The norovirus vaccine already missed at its interim analysis, and the 65-and-over flu approval needs a confirmatory trial.

11. Recent Developments

• 16 Oct 2026 — Shares pull back. The stock fell 7.8% to $218.01, a day after setting a 52-week intraday high of $242.29.
• 14 Oct 2026 — President sells under plan. Stephen Hoge sold about 78,000 shares on 14–15 Oct under his Rule 10b5-1 plan, worth about $17m.
• 13 Oct 2026 — Q3 date set. Moderna will report Q3 2026 results on Friday 06 Nov 2026, with a call at 8:00am ET.
• 09 Oct 2026 — Joins the Nasdaq-100. Moderna replaced Warner Bros. Discovery in the index, as announced by Nasdaq on 01 Oct.
• 30 Sep 2026 — New COO. Juan Andres returned as Chief Operating Officer, a new role leading manufacturing, effective 05 Oct; Jerh Collins is retiring.
• 28 Sep 2026 — Bayer suit proceeds. A Delaware federal judge refused to dismiss Bayer’s mRNA-stabilisation patent suits against Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.
• 21 Sep 2026 — ESMO late-breaker. INTerpath-001 Phase 3 data were selected as LBA1 in the ESMO 2026 Presidential Symposium on 24 Oct.
• 28 Aug 2026 — $2.6bn convertible priced. Moderna priced upsized 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032 at a 47.5% conversion premium, with net proceeds of about $2.56bn.
• 27 Aug 2026 — 2026-27 COVID vaccines approved. The FDA approved the updated Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE for adults aged 65 and over and for higher-risk younger people.
• 19 Aug 2026 — INTerpath-001 positive. Merck and Moderna said intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA met the recurrence-free survival primary endpoint and the distant-metastasis-free survival secondary endpoint at an interim analysis in 1,137 patients.
• 05 Aug 2026 — mFLUSIVA approved. The FDA approved mRNA-1010, the first mRNA flu vaccine, for adults aged 50 and over, after a unanimous VRBPAC vote in Jun.
• 31 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $145m and GAAP EPS −$1.97, and cash and investments were $6.9bn. The norovirus Phase 3 missed the interim criteria for early success.

12. Key Dates

• 23 Oct 2026 — ESMO Congress 2026 opens in Madrid (to 27 Oct)
• 24 Oct 2026 — INTerpath-001 Phase 3 presentation (LBA1, 10:30am EDT), followed by an investor webcast at 1:00pm EDT
• 06 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results and conference call (8:00am ET)
• 12 Nov 2026 — Moderna Analyst Day
• Expected by end of 2026 — registrational data for mRNA-3927 in propionic acidemia (per partner Recordati)
• TBC — First Circuit ruling on the ACIP litigation (argued 06 Oct 2026)
• 19 Jul 2027 — GSK v. Moderna Spikevax patent trial begins in Delaware
• 23 Aug 2027 — GSK v. Moderna mRESVIA patent trial begins in Delaware
• 01 Mar 2032 — maturity of the $2.6bn 0.00% convertible senior notes

Regulatory decisions on mRNA-1010 in the EU, Canada and Australia and on mRNA-1083 in Japan, Canada and Australia are pending, with no dates announced. No pending US PDUFA date has been disclosed.

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