ASML Holding (ASML) - Company Research

Last Updated: 23 April 2026

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML / Euronext Amsterdam: ASML) is the Dutch lithography monopoly that sits at the very tip of the semiconductor supply chain — the only company on earth that builds Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems, the machines TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK hynix and Micron need to print circuits at 5nm and below. Q1 2026 results released on 15 April 2026 came in ahead of guidance (€8.8bn net sales, 53.0% gross margin, €2.8bn net income) and the company raised full-year 2026 sales guidance to €36–40bn from €34–39bn. Two days before this report, the 2026 AGM (22 April 2026) approved the final 2025 dividend of €2.70/share (€7.50 total for 2025, +17% YoY), reappointed CFO Roger Dassen and COO Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury, added Marco Pieters to the management board as CTO, and renewed buyback authority. Same day, Bloomberg reported TSMC co-COO Kevin Zhang saying TSMC has "no plans" to deploy ASML's High-NA EUV through 2029 — the stock fell as much as 5.5% intraday before closing −1.05% at $1,443.66. This research pulls together segment mix, financials, valuation, the High-NA roadmap and the China export-control overhang entirely from ASML's own filings and press releases — no analyst opinions, no price targets. For live pricing and market context see our live charts, the economic calendar, and the community forum.

1. Company Snapshot

Name	ASML Holding N.V.
Tickers	NASDAQ: ASML (US ADR) / Euronext Amsterdam: ASML (primary)
Sector	Semiconductor capital equipment (lithography systems)
Headquarters	Veldhoven, Netherlands
Founded	1 April 1984 (originally ASM Lithography, JV between Philips and ASM International; IPO 1995)
CEO	Christophe Fouquet (President & CEO since 24 April 2024)
CFO	Roger Dassen (reappointed at 22 April 2026 AGM for 4 years)
Supervisory Board Chair	Nils Andersen (term ends at 2027 AGM)
Employees	~44,175 at year-end 2025 (1,700 layoffs announced Feb 2026 alongside ~1,400 new engineering hires)
FY2025 net sales	€32.7 billion (+15.6% YoY)
FY2025 gross margin	52.8%
FY2025 net income	€9.6 billion (US GAAP)
Order backlog (year-end 2025)	€38.8 billion
Market cap (22 Apr 2026)	~$564 billion (NASDAQ ADR basis)
Website	asml.com

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Sole supplier of EUV lithography globally — effective 100% market share in EUV, ~80–94% share of total lithography by value. Built up over 17+ years with >€6bn of cumulative R&D plus customer co-funding; supply chain (Zeiss SMT optics, Cymer light source, HMI metrology) is largely owned or part-owned by ASML.
• FY2026 sales guidance raised at Q1 results to €36–40bn (from €34–39bn) — midpoint implies ~+16% YoY. Management cited AI infrastructure demand pulling forward customer capex.
• Q1 2026 net sales €8.8bn beat guidance midpoint and consensus; gross margin 53.0%; net income €2.8bn; EPS €7.15. Memory mix surged to 51% of system sales (from 34% in 2025) as DRAM/HBM customers ramp EUV for AI.
• Year-end 2025 backlog €38.8bn (~1.2x FY2025 revenue); EUV capacity sold out through 2027.
• New €12bn share buyback programme running 2026–2028; FY2025 dividend raised 17% to €7.50; both Moody’s (A1) and Fitch (A+) upgraded ASML in November 2025.
• High-NA EUV (EXE:5200B, ASP ~€350m+ each) shipping to Intel, Samsung, SK hynix and Imec; Hyper-NA roadmap (HXE, 0.75 NA) targets ~2030 at ~$700m+ ASP.

Bear Case

• TSMC publicly said on 22 April 2026 that it has "no plans" to deploy High-NA EUV through 2029 (co-COO Kevin Zhang); earliest possible adoption pushed to A13 node. This removes the largest expected High-NA volume customer for the rest of the decade.
• China revenue exposure shrinking fast: 33% of FY2025 net sales → ~19% in Q1 2026 → ASML guides ~20% for FY2026. Further US/Dutch tightening could accelerate the cliff. The US House MATCH Act (introduced 2 April 2026) would extend export curbs to ASML’s DUV immersion lithography for SMIC, CXMT, YMTC and Hua Hong — the company itself flagged the wider FY2026 guidance range to "accommodate potential outcomes" of these talks.
• ASML stopped reporting quarterly bookings from Q1 2026 onwards, removing a previously closely-watched leading indicator.
• Customer concentration: top 5 (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, SK hynix) drive most system sales; any one delaying capex (e.g. Intel restructuring, TSMC pulling back on High-NA) materially affects mix.
• Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative €2.6bn on customer down-payment timing; cash & short-term investments fell to €8.4bn from €13.3bn at year-end 2025.
• Foundry capex is cyclical — the 2024 / early-2025 soft patch is fresh in memory; one bad year for customer capex resets bookings sharply.

3. What Does ASML Actually Do?

ASML designs, manufactures and services photolithography systems — the multi-million-euro machines that print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. It is the only company globally capable of producing Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the technology required for advanced logic at ≤7nm and leading-edge DRAM. Revenue is reported in two pillars:

• Net system sales (~75% of FY2025 revenue, €24.5bn). Sales of new and refurbished systems. Within this:
  • EUV systems ~47% of system sales (€11.6bn, +39% YoY; 48 systems shipped including High-NA). Average EUV ASP ~€240m for low-NA (NXE:3800E) and ~€350m+ for High-NA (EXE:5200B).
  • DUV systems ~49% of system sales (€12.0bn, −6% YoY). TWINSCAN NXT immersion (ArFi) and dry (ArF/KrF) at ~€60–90m ASPs.
  • Metrology & inspection (YieldStar, HMI e-beam) ~4% of system sales.
• Installed Base Management (~25% of FY2025 revenue, €8.2bn, +26% YoY). Service contracts, performance upgrades and field options on the ~6,300-system installed base. The recurring leg of the model.

By region (FY2025): China 33%, South Korea 25%, Taiwan 22%, US/others 20%. Q1 2026 already shows the rotation away from China — China just 19% of system sales, Korea ~45%.

4. The Business Model

ASML’s economic moat is unique: it is the sole supplier of EUV lithography in the world, a position built up over >17 years and >€6bn of cumulative R&D investment, plus parallel customer-co-funding (TSMC, Samsung and Intel were all early co-investors). The supply chain is unreplicable in any reasonable timescale — ASML owns or controls the critical inputs:

• Carl Zeiss SMT — sole supplier of EUV optics; ASML holds a 24.9% indirect stake (acquired 2016 for ~€1.0bn).
• Cymer — the EUV light source (CO₂ laser-produced plasma generating 13.5nm photons); acquired by ASML in 2013.
• Hermes Microvision (HMI) — e-beam metrology & inspection; acquired 2016 for ~€2.75bn.
• ~4,700 vendors in the supplier base; only ~15% of EUV machine value is built in-house.

FY2025 gross margin was 52.8% and Q1 2026 53.0%; R&D was ~€4.7bn in 2025 (~14% of sales) and ~€1.2bn in Q1 2026. Operating margin (TTM) ~34.8%. ASML receives no material subsidies or government tax credits — the dominant policy variable affecting earnings is the Dutch + US export-control regime, not domestic incentives.

5. Financial Health

Five-year revenue, profit and cash trend (€ millions, source: ASML annual reports and quarterly press releases)

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Net sales	€18,611	€21,173	€27,559	€28,263	€32,667
YoY growth	+33%	+14%	+30%	+2.5%	+15.6%
Gross margin	52.7%	49.7%	50.0%	50.5%	52.8%
Net income	€5,883	€5,624	€7,839	€7,572	€9,606
Free cash flow	~€10.0B	~€7.5B	~€3.6B	~€9.9B	~€11B
Cash & ST investments (period-end)	~€7.0B	~€7.3B	~€7.0B	~€12.7B	€13.3B

Year-end 2025: outstanding bonds €3.75bn (maturities through 2032); credit ratings Moody’s A1 / Fitch A+ (both upgraded November 2025). Year-end 2025 order backlog €38.8bn, of which €7.4bn EUV booked in Q4 2025 alone.

Quarterly trend — last five quarters (source: ASML earnings releases)

Quarter	Net sales	Gross margin	Net income	EPS (basic)
Q1 2025	€7.7B	54.0%	€2.36B	€6.00
Q2 2025	€7.7B	53.7%	€2.30B	€5.90
Q3 2025	€7.5B	51.6%	€2.10B	€5.49
Q4 2025	€9.72B	52.2%	€2.84B	n/d
Q1 2026	€8.80B	53.0%	€2.80B	€7.15

Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative €2.6bn on customer down-payment timing; cash & short-term investments fell to €8.4bn from €13.3bn at year-end 2025 as ASML executed €1.1bn of buybacks in Q1 alongside the dividend cycle.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Metric	Value	Notes / source date
Share price (NASDAQ ADR)	$1,443.66	Close 22 April 2026 (−1.05%)
Market capitalisation	~$564B	22 April 2026
Enterprise value	~$558B	EV ~ market cap minus net cash
P/E (trailing, GAAP)	48.9x	EPS $29.79 TTM
P/E (forward)	~37.1x	Consensus 12-mo forward
P/S (TTM)	~16x	TTM revenue ~€33.7bn
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~36.5x	EBITDA TTM ~€12.8bn
P/FCF (TTM)	~63x	FCF TTM ~$9bn
Dividend (2025 total)	€7.50/share	Final €2.70 ex 24/27 Apr 2026, pays 5 May
Dividend yield	~0.45%	22 April 2026
52-week high	$1,547.22	25 February 2026
52-week low	$614.06	21 April 2025
Beta	1.38	5-year
Short interest	~692,629 shares (~0.2% float)	31 March 2026; days-to-cover ~0.4 (down 28.5% MoM)
Buyback authority	€12bn programme 2026–2028	€1.1bn executed in Q1 2026

7. What Are They Building / What’s Coming?

• FY2026 guidance raised at Q1 results (15 April 2026): net sales €36–40bn (from €34–39bn previously); gross margin 51–53%. Q2 2026 guidance: €8.4–9.0bn sales, GM 51–52%, R&D ~€1.2bn, SG&A ~€0.3bn.
• EUV capacity ramp: ASML is targeting ~60 low-NA EUV systems shipped in 2026 (+25% YoY) and ~80 in 2027. EUV annual capacity will reach ~90 systems by 2027. DUV capacity ~600/year.
• High-NA EUV (EXE:5200B, 0.55 NA, ASP ~€350m+):
  • Intel — first commercial customer; testing complete; 14A node target. Has expanded order to 2 units.
  • Samsung — first unit late 2025; second shipping H1 2026; targeting 2nm foundry.
  • SK hynix — first High-NA at M16 fab (Sept 2025) for DRAM; expected 2 units.
  • TSMC — confirmed 22 April 2026 (per Bloomberg) it will not deploy High-NA through 2029; co-COO Kevin Zhang said "no plans" for the next-gen tools, citing cost.
  • Imec — installed EXE:5200 in March 2026 for sub-2nm research.
• Hyper-NA roadmap (HXE, 0.75 NA): targeted ~2030; expected ASP ~$700m+. Throughput goal 300 wph by 2035 (vs ~150 wph today on EXE:5000).
• Capacity expansion: Eindhoven city council approved (March 2026) ASML’s second campus at the Brainport Industries Campus — capacity for ~20,000 employees long-term. Wilton, CT expansion (~1,000 jobs, the second-largest ASML R&D centre). Linkou, Taiwan facility (Asia’s largest ASML site) starts operations in 2026.
• Capital return: €12bn share buyback programme through 31 December 2028; AGM authority renewed 22 April 2026 to repurchase up to 10% of issued capital through October 2027.

8. Competitive Landscape

Lithography equipment is one of the most concentrated markets in semiconductors. ASML dominates by value; Canon and Nikon retain share at the lower end of the technology stack and in legacy nodes; SMEE is China’s emerging domestic alternative.

Company	2024 share (by value)	Notes
ASML	~94%	Sole EUV supplier — effectively 100% of EUV; spans low-NA and High-NA.
Canon	~3%	DUV (KrF, ArF, ArFi); also nanoimprint lithography (NIL) for select memory niches.
Nikon	~2%	DUV (ArFi/ArF/KrF) — declining share, particularly at advanced nodes.
SMEE (Shanghai Micro Electronics)	~1%	KrF and developmental ArFi; targeted at the 90–28nm node range; export-control beneficiary inside China.

In the EUV sub-segment specifically, ASML holds 100% global share — no competitor produces a commercial EUV lithography system, and none has publicly demonstrated one in the medium term.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Board of Management (post-22 April 2026 AGM, expanded to six members): Christophe Fouquet (President & CEO, term to 2028); Roger Dassen (CFO, reappointed 4 years to 2030); Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury (COO, reappointed); Marco Pieters (newly appointed CTO, effective 22 April 2026); plus two further EVPs.

Supervisory Board: Nils Andersen (Chair, term ends 2027 AGM); Jack de Kreij (term ends 2027); Terri Kelly and An Steegen reappointed at 22 April 2026 AGM; Benjamin Loh newly appointed; Alexander Everke departed.

Holder	Approx stake	Notes
BlackRock	~8.4%	Largest disclosed institutional holder
Vanguard	~3.9%
Norges Bank Investment Management	~2.7%	Norwegian sovereign wealth fund
Capital Group (World & International)	~2.1% combined
Insiders / Board	<1%	Typical for Dutch-listed multinationals

Recent insider activity (under EU/SEC disclosure regimes) has been skewed to small executive sales in line with vested equity awards; no notable insider buying disclosed in the trailing 12 months.

Source: ASML is a Dutch foreign private issuer. As a Section 16 exemption applies, executives and directors of ASML do not file SEC Form 4s for open-market transactions in ADRs. Beneficial-ownership disclosures instead appear in ASML's 20-F annual filings and, where applicable, under the Dutch AFM's register of managers' transactions (bestuurdersmeldingen). No material open-market insider transactions were identified in the 12 months ending April 2026 from either register.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
No reportable open-market dealings	12 months to Apr 2026	—	—	—	—	See regulatory note above

10. Risks and Challenges

• US export controls / China. The MATCH Act (Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware) was introduced in the US House on 2 April 2026. If enacted it would extend US export bans from EUV to DUV immersion lithography and cryogenic etching for SMIC, CXMT, YMTC, Hua Hong, Huawei and affiliates. Estimated revenue exposure ~5% of total. Stock dropped on 7 April 2026 on the news. ASML’s wider FY2026 guidance range (€36–40bn) explicitly accommodates these scenarios.
• China revenue cliff. China share fell from 33% (FY2025) to ~19% in Q1 2026; FY2026 guidance ~20%. Further tightening could accelerate.
• Geopolitical / Taiwan. Taiwan is ~22% of FY2025 revenue (TSMC); cross-strait tensions are a tail risk.
• Customer concentration. Top 5 customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, SK hynix) drive most system sales. TSMC’s 22 April 2026 statement that it will not adopt High-NA before 2029 is the latest example of how a single customer decision can move the stock.
• High-NA execution risk. EXE:5200B ramp pace now depends on Intel and Samsung uptake; absent TSMC, the volume profile through 2027–2028 is more uncertain.
• Foundry capex cyclicality. Lithography is the most expensive line in fab capex; downcycles compress system sales (Q4 2023–Q1 2025 was the most recent soft patch).
• Currency. EUR/USD swings affect reported sales (~40% of customer billings in USD); ASML hedges quarterly exposure.
• Rare-earth supply chain. China’s 2025 expansion of rare-earth export controls is an indirect input-cost risk; the CFO has said ASML holds buffer stock thanks to long lead times.
• Patent / IP litigation. Historical Nikon vs ASML matter settled 2019; new IP disputes possible as Chinese DUV alternatives mature.
• Workforce friction. 1,700 announced layoffs in February 2026 (mostly Netherlands) drew employee walkouts in March; CEO framed the move as efficiency-led.

11. Recent Developments

• 22 April 2026 — 2026 AGM held in Veldhoven. Shareholders approved final 2025 dividend of €2.70/share (€7.50 total for 2025, +17% YoY); reappointed Roger Dassen (CFO, 4 years) and Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury (COO); appointed Marco Pieters as new CTO to the Board of Management (board expands from 5 to 6); reappointed Terri Kelly and An Steegen to the Supervisory Board; appointed Benjamin Loh; renewed authority to repurchase up to 10% of issued capital through 22 October 2027; reappointed PwC as external auditor for 2027; discharged management.
• 22 April 2026 — TSMC says no to High-NA EUV through 2029. Bloomberg reported TSMC co-COO Kevin Zhang’s comments that TSMC has "no plans to deploy" ASML’s High-NA EUV machines for next-gen processors; earliest possible adoption pushed to A13 (~2029) on cost grounds. ASML stock fell as much as 5.5% intraday and closed −1.05% at $1,443.66.
• 22 April 2026 — CEO Fouquet at AGM. Reiterated that ASML "will not be a bottleneck" for chipmakers in 2026 and that demand is "outpacing supply," with customers pulling forward 2026+ capacity expansion.
• 15 April 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Net sales €8.8bn; gross margin 53.0%; net income €2.8bn; EPS €7.15; FY2026 sales guidance raised to €36–40bn (from €34–39bn). Buyback of €1.1bn executed in Q1 within the new €12bn 2026–2028 programme. CEO Fouquet attributed momentum to AI-related infrastructure investment and flagged that the wider guidance range "accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls."
• 7 April 2026 — Stock fell on US MATCH Act introduction (2 April). The bill targets DUV export curbs to China and would extend existing EUV bans.
• March 2026 — Eindhoven 2nd campus approved. City council greenlit ASML’s expansion at Brainport Industries Campus; long-term capacity for ~20,000 employees.
• 25 March 2026 — Walkout. ASML employees staged a walkout in protest at the announced 1,700 job cuts.
• February 2026 — 1,700 layoffs announced (mostly Netherlands, ~185 in US) alongside ~1,400 new engineering hires; CEO framing: "the faster you grow, the less efficient you get."
• 28 January 2026 — Q4 2025 / FY2025 results. Q4 net sales €9.72bn; full-year €32.7bn revenue, €9.6bn net income, 52.8% GM. Record Q4 bookings €13.16bn (€7.4bn EUV). Year-end backlog €38.8bn. Announced new €12bn share buyback programme through 31 December 2028.
• November 2025 — Credit-rating upgrades. Moody’s upgraded ASML to A1; Fitch upgraded to A+ (both stable outlook).

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 24 April 2026 — Final dividend ex-date (Euronext Amsterdam).
• 27 April 2026 — Final dividend ex-date (NASDAQ ADR).
• 5 May 2026 — 2025 final dividend payment (€2.70/share).
• ~16 July 2026 — Q2 2026 results (estimated; specific date TBC by IR).
• 5 August 2026 — Interim dividend instalment.
• ~15 October 2026 — Q3 2026 results (estimated).
• 4 November 2026 — Interim dividend instalment.
• ~28 January 2027 — Q4 2026 / FY2026 results (estimated).
• April 2027 — 2027 AGM (Nils Andersen and Jack de Kreij Supervisory Board terms end).

Related

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Disclaimer: Research only. This article is for information and discussion purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and does not take your personal circumstances into account. All financial figures come from ASML company filings and press releases; market data is as of the dates stated. Always do your own research and consult a qualified adviser before making investment decisions.