ConocoPhillips (COP) - Company Research
Last Updated: 12 Oct 2026
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is the largest US independent exploration and production company, with no refining or chemicals arm. Its output is concentrated in the US Lower 48 shale basins (Delaware, Midland, Eagle Ford and Bakken), supplemented by Alaska, Canadian oil sands, Norway, Qatar, Australia and a growing LNG offtake portfolio. FY2025 sales and other operating revenues were $58.9 billion with net income of $8.0 billion ($6.35 diluted EPS). Q2 2026 net income doubled year on year to $3.9 billion ($3.23 per share) as realised prices rose to $62.33 per barrel of oil equivalent. Andy O'Brien took over as CEO on 1 September 2026, and on 1 October the company said it was evaluating an unsolicited offer for its Norway business and Teesside terminal. Track the share price on our Live Charts.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | NYSE: COP |
| Headquarters | Houston, Texas, USA (Delaware corporation) |
| Sector / Industry | Energy: Oil & Gas Exploration and Production |
| CEO / Leadership | Andy O'Brien, President and CEO since 01 Sep 2026 (previously CFO); Ryan Lance, Executive Chair in a transitional role; Konnie Haynes-Welsh, CFO |
| Employees | ~9,900 (31 Dec 2025, FY2025 10-K; ~11,800 at end-2024) |
| Market cap | ~$161bn (Oct 2026: $134.10 close on 9 Oct 2026 x ~1,201m shares per Q2 2026 10-Q cover) |
| FY2025 Revenue | $58.9bn sales and other operating revenues (+7.7% YoY); total revenues and other income $61.5bn |
| FY2025 net income (GAAP) | $8.0bn ($6.35 diluted EPS); adjusted EPS $6.16 |
| Production | 2,248 MBOED in Q2 2026 (Lower 48: 1,479 MBOED) |
| Dividend | $0.84 per share quarterly ($3.36 annualised) |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Strong cash generation at current prices: Q2 2026 cash from operations was $7.4bn and H1 2026 operating cash flow reached $11.7bn, while H1 capital spending fell to $6.0bn from $6.7bn a year earlier.
- Rising shareholder returns: Q2 2026 returns were $3.0bn ($2.0bn buybacks, double Q1, plus $1.0bn dividends), and the company says it is on track to return 45% of CFO in 2026.
- Self-help on costs and portfolio: Marathon Oil synergies exceeded $1bn run-rate, a further $1bn-plus cost and margin programme runs to end-2026, and the $5bn disposal target was met early with a $1.7bn Lower 48 sale.
- Growing LNG and long-life projects: LNG offtake has risen to 12 MTPA, a new 20-year Venture Global supply deal was signed on 2 Oct 2026, and Willow in Alaska targets first oil in 2029.
- Moderate leverage: Total debt of ~$23.3bn against ~$7.7bn of cash and short-term investments at 30 Jun 2026, with equity of $65.3bn.
Bear Case
- Underlying production is shrinking: Q2 2026 output of 2,248 MBOED was 143 MBOED lower year on year, about 4% lower after adjusting for acquisitions and disposals, and Qatar volumes are excluded from guidance.
- Heavy insider selling: Former CEO Ryan Lance sold over 620,000 shares (~$79.5m) in March 2026, and several senior officers sold during the year, none under 10b5-1 plans in the filings checked.
- Leadership transition: A new CEO and a new CFO took office together on 1 Sep 2026, shortly before a possible Norway sale and new Middle East entries in Iraq and Syria.
- Concentration in US shale: The Lower 48 provided ~70% of FY2025 revenue, leaving results tied closely to US oil and gas prices and shale well productivity.
3. Products & Segments
ConocoPhillips sells crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and LNG. It reports by geography.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Lower 48 | ~70.2% ($41.4bn FY2025) | US onshore shale: Delaware and Midland (Permian), Eagle Ford and Bakken, plus Gulf Coast commercial activities. |
| Europe, Middle East & North Africa | ~11.0% ($6.5bn FY2025) | Norway North Sea fields, Qatar LNG interests, Libya and Equatorial Guinea; also the Teesside terminal in the UK. |
| Alaska | ~9.6% ($5.6bn FY2025) | North Slope production (Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk, Alpine) and the Willow development. |
| Canada | ~6.2% ($3.6bn FY2025) | Surmont oil sands and Montney unconventional gas and liquids. |
| Asia Pacific | ~3.0% ($1.8bn FY2025) | Australia Pacific LNG, Malaysia and China interests. |
Figures are sales and other operating revenues from the FY2025 10-K segment note; Corporate makes up the small remainder of the $58.9bn total.
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. Revenue is volume multiplied by realised price. Q2 2026 realised price averaged $62.33 per BOE against $45.77 a year earlier, which drove most of the rise in earnings. Costs are mainly lifting, transport, depreciation and taxes, so profit margins expand sharply when commodity prices rise.
Where the advantage lies. The company holds a deep inventory of low-cost shale locations across four US basins, enlarged by the 2024 Marathon Oil acquisition, plus long-life conventional assets in Alaska, Norway and Qatar. Its size lets it run large, multi-year programmes like Willow and LNG offtake contracts that smaller independents cannot.
Limits of the moat. As a pure producer it has no refining or chemicals business to offset weak prices, and shale wells decline quickly, so steady reinvestment is needed just to hold output flat.
5. Financial Health
ConocoPhillips reports on a calendar year. Revenue below is sales and other operating revenues. Figures are from the company's 10-K filings, earnings releases and SEC XBRL data.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $45,828m | +144.0% | $6.07 | $6.01 | $1.75 | $18,734m |
| FY2022 | $78,494m | +71.3% | $14.57 | $13.52 | $1.89 ordinary + $2.60 VROC† | $16,226m |
| FY2023 | $56,141m | -28.5% | $9.06 | $8.77 | $2.11 ordinary + $2.50 VROC† | $17,863m |
| FY2024 | $54,745m | -2.5% | $7.81 | $7.79 | $2.52 | $23,289m |
| FY2025 | $58,944m | +7.7% | $6.35 | $6.16 | $3.18 | $22,424m |
† VROC is the variable return of cash paid in 2022 and 2023 in addition to the ordinary dividend; no VROC has been paid since. Ordinary dividends are per-share amounts declared in each calendar year. Long-term debt is the noncurrent balance-sheet line; the FY2024 increase reflects debt assumed with Marathon Oil.
Quarterly trend, most recent quarter first:
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (Jun-26) | $19,161m | $3.24 | $3.23 |
| Q1 2026 (Mar-26) | $15,761m | $1.89 | $1.78 |
| Q4 2025 (Dec-25) | $13,392m | $1.02 | $1.17 |
| Q3 2025 (Sep-25) | $15,031m | $1.61 | $1.38 |
| Q2 2025 (Jun-25) | $14,004m | $1.42 | $1.56 |
| Q1 2025 (Mar-25) | $16,517m | $2.09 | $2.23 |
| FY2025 total | $58,944m | $6.16 | $6.35 |
Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 operating cash flow was $19,796m and capital expenditures and investments were $12,553m, giving free cash flow of ~$7.2bn. Depreciation, depletion and amortisation was $11,500m. In H1 2026 operating cash flow was $11,729m and capital expenditures $5,972m. At 30 Jun 2026 long-term debt was $22,828m and short-term debt $462m (total ~$23.3bn), against cash of $6,574m and short-term investments of $1,118m. 2026 guidance: capex of $12.0-12.5bn and production of 2.295-2.325 MMBOED.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$161bn ($134.10 close on 9 Oct 2026 x ~1,201m shares) |
| Enterprise value | ~$177bn (market cap ~$161bn + total debt ~$23.3bn [long-term $22.8bn + short-term $0.5bn] - cash and short-term investments ~$7.7bn, per 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~17.7x ($134.10 / TTM GAAP EPS $7.56, Q3 2025 to Q2 2026); on TTM adjusted EPS of $7.76 the multiple is ~17.3x |
| P/E (forward) | ~12.4x (MarketBeat, data to 9 Oct 2026) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~2.54x (market cap ~$161bn / TTM sales ~$63.3bn) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~6.5x (EV ~$177bn / TTM EBITDA ~$27.2bn; EBITDA = pre-tax income $14.6bn + interest and debt expense $0.8bn + DD&A $11.8bn, TTM to 30 Jun 2026. ConocoPhillips does not report an operating income line, so EBIT is built from pre-tax income plus interest; pre-tax income includes disposal gains) |
| P/FCF | ~16.0x (market cap ~$161bn / TTM FCF ~$10.1bn; FCF = operating CF $21.9bn - capital expenditures and investments $11.9bn, TTM to 30 Jun 2026. On FY2025 alone FCF was $7.2bn) |
| 52-week high | $141.62 (15 Sep 2026) |
| 52-week low | $85.57 (06 Nov 2025) |
| Dividend yield | ~2.5% ($3.36 annualised / $134.10) |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~1.40% (16.8m shares, settlement 31 Aug 2026, MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | ~2.4 days (MarketBeat, 31 Aug 2026) |
7. What Are They Building
Willow, Alaska. The North Slope development was about 50% complete at the Q1 2026 update, with first oil targeted for 2029. Nearby, Coyote achieved first oil in the Kuparuk River Unit on 12 Aug 2026, ahead of schedule and under budget.
LNG portfolio. Offtake commitments have grown to 12 MTPA. ConocoPhillips holds 30% of Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 in Texas (Train 1 expected around end-2027) and on 2 Oct 2026 signed a 20-year, 1 MTPA supply deal with Venture Global starting in 2030.
New Middle East positions. On 17 Jul 2026 the company agreed to take a 42% stake in a joint venture to redevelop producing oil fields in Kirkuk, Iraq, with closing expected by end-2026, and it has agreed to re-enter Syria.
Portfolio high-grading. The $1.7bn sale of noncore Lower 48 assets closed in July 2026, meeting the $5bn disposal target early. The company is now evaluating an unsolicited offer for its Norway business and the Teesside terminal and says it will keep the assets if offers miss its value expectations.
Cost programme. Management targets more than $1bn of incremental run-rate cost reductions and margin improvements by end-2026 and about $7bn of incremental free cash flow by 2029.
8. Peer Comparison
| Peer | Market cap (Oct 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | ~$416bn (9 Oct 2026 close) | FY2025 earnings $12.3bn; diluted EPS $6.63 (Chevron FY2025 release) |
| EOG Resources (EOG) | ~$79bn (9 Oct 2026 close) | FY2025 net income $4.98bn; diluted EPS $9.12 (EOG FY2025 release) |
| Occidental (OXY) | ~$60bn (9 Oct 2026 close) | Q4 2025 production 1,481 MBOED (Occidental Q4 2025 release) |
| Diamondback Energy (FANG) | ~$54bn (9 Oct 2026 close) | FY2025 net income attributable $1.66bn; diluted EPS $5.73 (Diamondback FY2025 release) |
| Devon Energy (DVN) | ~$53bn (9 Oct 2026 close, after the Coterra merger) | FY2025 diluted EPS $4.17 (Devon Q4 2025 supplemental tables) |
9. Insider Activity
All 2026 Form 4 open-market transactions were sales; there were no open-market purchases. The largest were by former CEO and now Executive Chair Ryan Lance in March 2026, following the exercise of options expiring in February 2027. New CEO Andy O'Brien has no open-market transactions in the period shown. The Form 4s checked for Lance, Rose and Lundquist do not mark the trades as 10b5-1 plan sales.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lundquist (SVP) | 21 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 9,487 | $135.15 | ~$1.28m | Not a 10b5-1 plan (per Form 4) |
| Kelly Rose (SVP and General Counsel) | 20 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 15,000 | $134.52 avg | ~$2.02m | Not a 10b5-1 plan (per Form 4) |
| Sharmila Mulligan (Director) | 10 Jun 2026 | Open-market sale | 1,974 | $119.00 | ~$0.23m | Not indicated |
| Ryan Lance (then Chairman and CEO), via family trust | 31 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 113,221 | $132.71 avg | ~$15.0m | Not a 10b5-1 plan (per Form 4) |
| Ryan Lance (then Chairman and CEO) | 20 Mar 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 506,800 | $127.26 avg | ~$64.5m | Not a 10b5-1 plan (per Form 4) |
| Andrew Lundquist (SVP) | 13 Mar 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 34,500 | $119.68 | ~$4.13m | Not indicated |
| Kontessa Haynes-Welsh (then VP and Controller, now CFO) | 12 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 10,339 | $120.07 | ~$1.24m | Not indicated |
| Timothy Leach (Director) | 06 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 40,000 | $118.79 | ~$4.75m | Not indicated |
Other March 2026 sales came from EVP Nicholas Olds (three sales totalling 33,666 shares), Kelly Rose (two sales totalling 16,200 shares) and SVP Heather Hrap (2,654 shares).
10. Key Risks
- Commodity prices: With no downstream business, earnings move almost one-for-one with oil and gas prices; Q2 2026 realised prices of $62.33/BOE were 36% above a year earlier, and a reversal would compress cash flow and buybacks.
- Middle East and geopolitical exposure: Qatar volumes were removed from 2026 guidance because of regional conflict, and the company is expanding into Iraq (Kirkuk) and Syria, both carrying security and political risk.
- Production decline: Underlying output fell about 4% year on year in Q2 2026; disposals and shale decline rates make it harder to hold volumes without higher spending.
- Project execution and regulation: Willow (first oil targeted 2029) and Port Arthur LNG are large, long-dated projects exposed to cost overruns, legal challenges and changes in US federal policy.
- Leadership and portfolio change: A new CEO and CFO from 1 Sep 2026 are overseeing a possible Norway and Teesside sale and new country entries at the same time.
- Venezuela recovery: Collection of the $8.5bn ICSID award plus interest upheld in January 2025 remains uncertain and depends on the ongoing CITGO auction process.
11. Recent Developments
- 02 Oct 2026 — Venture Global LNG deal. Venture Global announced a 20-year agreement to supply ConocoPhillips with 1 MTPA of LNG from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, starting in 2030.
- 01 Oct 2026 — Norway and Teesside under review. ConocoPhillips confirmed it is evaluating a sale of its Norway business and its Teesside terminal after an unsolicited offer; no buyer or price was disclosed.
- 24 Sep 2026 — Q3 results date set. The company will release Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026 before the market opens, with a call at 12:00 ET.
- 01 Sep 2026 — CEO succession effective. Andy O'Brien became President and CEO, Ryan Lance moved to a transitional Executive Chair role and Konnie Haynes-Welsh became CFO; the Q3 dividend of $0.84 was paid the same day.
- 12 Aug 2026 — Coyote first oil. First oil from Coyote 3SX in the Kuparuk River Unit, Alaska, ahead of schedule and under budget.
- 06 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Net income of $3.9bn ($3.23 per share), adjusted EPS $3.24, production 2,248 MBOED and $3.0bn returned to shareholders; full-year guidance unchanged.
12. Key Dates & Catalysts
- 05 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results before the US open, conference call at 12:00 ET (confirmed by the company). Q3 production guidance is 2.29-2.32 MMBOED.
- Expected Nov 2026 — Q4 2026 ordinary dividend declaration, normally announced with Q3 results.
- Expected Dec 2026 — Closing of the Kirkuk, Iraq joint venture, which the company expects by year-end 2026.
- Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance.
Also worth watching: the outcome of the Norway and Teesside review, progress on Willow and Port Arthur LNG, and oil price direction. See our Economic Calendar for inventory and macro releases, and join the discussion on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. ConocoPhillips is the largest US independent oil and gas producer, earning its revenue from selling crude, gas, NGLs and LNG, with about 70% of sales from the Lower 48 shale basins. FY2025 sales were $58.9bn with net income of $8.0bn ($6.35 per share); Q2 2026 net income doubled year on year to $3.9bn ($3.23 per share) on higher realised prices, and management has kept 2026 guidance of $12.0-12.5bn capex and 2.295-2.325 MMBOED while targeting 45% of CFO returned to shareholders. Longer-term growth rests on Willow in Alaska (first oil targeted 2029), a 12 MTPA LNG offtake portfolio and a cost programme aimed at about $7bn of extra free cash flow by 2029.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be Q3 2026 results on 05 Nov 2026 at or above the 2.29-2.32 MMBOED guidance, continued buybacks under new CEO Andy O'Brien, and a Norway and Teesside outcome that adds value. The thesis weakens if oil prices retreat, underlying production keeps declining, Middle East exposure in Qatar, Iraq or Syria causes losses, or Willow and LNG projects slip.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (05 Nov 2026) (24 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Strong cash generation at current prices:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Commodity prices:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 12 Oct 2026.