Last Updated: 7 August 2026
Newmont Corporation is the largest listed gold miner in the world by attributable production, at 5.89 million ounces in 2025, and by market capitalisation among pure gold producers. Following the November 2023 acquisition of Newcrest Mining and the completion of a seven-asset divestiture programme in April 2025, the portfolio is now a concentrated set of long-life operations across the Americas, Australia, Africa and Papua New Guinea. FY2025 revenue was $22.7bn and free cash flow $7.3bn. Newmont does not hedge its metal sales, so the earnings line is fully exposed to spot prices. This report sets out what the filings say, without opinions on the share price.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Newmont Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | NEM (New York Stock Exchange, primary). Also listed as CHESS Depositary Interests on the ASX and as PETS Depositary Interests on PNGX. Delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on 24 September 2025. |
| Sector | Materials — gold and copper mining |
| Headquarters | 6900 E Layton Ave, Denver, Colorado, United States |
| CEO / Leadership | Natascha Viljoen, President and Chief Executive Officer since 1 January 2026, the first woman to lead Newmont. Brian Tabolt has been Chief Financial Officer since 1 July 2026. Mark Rodgers is Chief Operating Officer and David Thornton Chief Technical Officer, both from 1 July 2026. Predecessor Tom Palmer stepped down as CEO on 31 December 2025. |
| Employees | Approximately 17,500 employed by Newmont and its subsidiaries at 31 December 2025, alongside approximately 26,600 people working as contractors |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $22,669m ($22.7bn), up 21.3% on FY2024 |
| Net income (FY2025) | $7,085m attributable to Newmont stockholders; diluted EPS $6.39, adjusted EPS $6.89 |
| Gold production (FY2025) | 5,889 koz attributable, of which 5,680 koz from the core portfolio |
| All-in sustaining cost (FY2025) | $1,358 per ounce on a by-product basis |
| Market capitalisation | ~$111.1bn at the close on 6 August 2026 (share price $105.43; ~1,053.7m shares outstanding at 16 July 2026) |
| Dividend | $0.26 per share quarterly, $1.04 annualised. The framework fixes the aggregate commitment at $1.1bn a year, so the per-share rate rises mechanically as buybacks shrink the share count. |
| Balance sheet | Net cash of $3,411m at 30 June 2026; cash $9,009m against non-current debt of $5,083m and no current debt; total liquidity $13.0bn |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Cash generation at scale: FY2025 operating cash flow of $10,334m and free cash flow of $7,299m, followed by a record second-quarter free cash flow of $2,205m in Q2 2026 despite a gold price correction during the period.
- Net cash balance sheet: $3.4bn net cash at 30 June 2026 after repaying $3,430m of debt during 2025, taking total debt from $8,476m to $5,115m and leaving no current maturities at all.
- Aggressive share-count reduction: more than 100 million shares, roughly 9% of the company, repurchased since February 2024. The original $6.0bn programme was fully executed by April 2026 and a further $6.0bn was authorised, of which $4.3bn remained at 23 July 2026.
- A funded organic pipeline: Tanami Expansion 2 reaching commercial production in H2 2027; Cadia panel caves PC2-3 and PC1-2 running to 2034 and 2042 respectively; the Lihir Nearshore Barrier unlocking more than 5 Moz from 2028; Cerro Negro District Expansion 1 adding roughly 3.5 Moz; and Red Chris block cave, which received its amended environmental certificate and mines permit in June 2026.
- Growing copper optionality: $1,438m of copper revenue in FY2025 and 12.5 million tonnes of copper reserves alongside 118.2 Moz of attributable gold reserves, with Cadia PC1-2 alone adding more than 700 kt of copper over its life.
Bear Case
- 2026 is a step down on both production and cost: guidance of roughly 5,260 koz against 5,889 koz delivered in 2025, with by-product all-in sustaining cost guided to $1,680 per ounce against $1,358 achieved in 2025.
- Guidance assumes a gold price above spot: the 2026 plan is built on $4,500 per ounce, while gold traded at roughly $4,262 per ounce on 6 August 2026. Newmont states a policy of not hedging, and quantifies the sensitivity at roughly $505m pre-tax per $100 per ounce move.
- Cadia has stopped twice this year: a magnitude 4.5 seismic event in April 2026 and two further tremors on 19 June 2026 suspended underground operations, and Q2 2026 copper output fell 43% quarter on quarter partly as a result.
- Reclamation is a large and front-loaded cash cost: $6,297m of reclamation and remediation liabilities at 31 December 2025, with roughly $850m of 2026 spend planned, of which about $550m is on the Yanacocha water treatment plants. Total Yanacocha water treatment spend is estimated at roughly $1.8bn with $1.1bn already spent.
- Fiscal and jurisdictional terms are being reopened: Ghana's cabinet approved revised mining legislation on 15 July 2026 introducing a sliding-scale royalty and signalling the phasing out of fiscal stability agreements, which is directly relevant to Newmont's ratified Revised Investment Agreement covering Ahafo. Papua New Guinea's new Income Tax Act took effect on 1 January 2026.
- The largest revenue segment is not operated by Newmont: Nevada Gold Mines contributed $3,560m, 15.7% of FY2025 revenue, from a 38.5% non-operated stake. Newmont has served a notice of default on operator Barrick and the dispute was unresolved as at 24 July 2026.
3. Business Segments
Newmont reports by individual mine or mine complex. The table groups those into the categories that drive the business, using FY2025 revenue as filed in the 2025 Form 10-K.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Australia and Papua New Guinea (Cadia, Boddington, Lihir, Tanami) | 34.7% ($7,876m) | The former Newcrest core plus Boddington and Tanami. Cadia and Boddington are gold-copper operations; Lihir is a large refractory gold mine in PNG; Tanami is an underground gold mine being expanded via a 1,460m hoisting shaft. |
| North America (Nevada Gold Mines 38.5%, Brucejack, Red Chris 70%) | 21.6% ($4,897m) | Nevada Gold Mines is a 38.5% non-operated interest in the Barrick-operated Nevada complex and was the single largest revenue line at $3,560m. Brucejack and Red Chris are British Columbia operations acquired with Newcrest. |
| Mexico (Peñasquito) | 15.1% ($3,419m) | A polymetallic open pit producing gold alongside silver, lead and zinc. It is the source of essentially all of Newmont's silver, lead and zinc revenue and the reason the by-product cost measure differs so sharply from the co-product measure. |
| Africa (Ahafo South, Ahafo North) | 11.1% ($2,508m) | Ghana. Ahafo South is a mature producer; Ahafo North declared commercial production on 24 October 2025 with an initial 13-year mine life and is guided at 315 koz in 2026. |
| South America (Yanacocha, Merian 75%, Cerro Negro) | 14.7% ($3,341m) | Peru, Suriname and Argentina. Yanacocha carries the largest reclamation obligation in the group; Cerro Negro is the subject of a district expansion adding roughly 3.5 Moz. |
| Divested assets (CC&V, Musselwhite, Porcupine, Éléonore, Akyem) | 2.8% ($628m) | Part-year revenue from the five mines sold during the first half of 2025 as the non-core divestiture programme completed. This revenue does not recur in 2026. |
By metal, FY2025 revenue was $19,304m of gold (85.2%), $1,438m of copper (6.3%), $1,080m of silver (4.8%), $664m of zinc (2.9%) and $183m of lead (0.8%). By production route, gold doré accounted for $14,330m and concentrate and other production $8,339m.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Newmont extracts ore, processes it into doré bars or metal concentrate, and sells at spot. There is no hedge book: the FY2025 Form 10-K states a strategy of not hedging gold, copper, silver, lead or zinc sales. Revenue is therefore price times volume with no smoothing, and the margin is whatever sits between the realised price and the all-in sustaining cost. In Q2 2026 that spread was $4,414 realised against $1,621 by-product AISC. Co-product metals from Peñasquito, Cadia, Boddington and Red Chris are credited against gold costs, which is why the by-product figure of $1,621 and the co-product figure of $1,938 differ so widely.
What protects it. The moat is orebody quality and duration rather than brand or switching cost — gold is fungible, so no producer has pricing power. What Newmont has instead is 118.2 Moz of attributable gold reserves and 12.5 Mt of copper reserves in jurisdictions where permits already exist, and a set of mine lives that run to 2040 and beyond at Tanami and Lihir, to 2042 at Cadia PC1-2, beyond 2038 at Cerro Negro and into the mid-2040s at Red Chris. Replacing that would require a decade of permitting and construction. The Newcrest acquisition was the mechanism for assembling it.
How capital is allocated. The enhanced framework announced on 19 February 2026 sets a strict order: sustaining capital first at $1.95bn in 2026, then a fixed $1.1bn aggregate dividend, then $1.4bn of development capital, then a balance-sheet target of $1bn net cash within a $2bn band and a minimum $5bn cash balance through the cycle, and only then rateable buybacks of surplus cash. At $3.4bn net cash the company is currently at the top of that flexibility band, which is why buybacks have been running at pace.
Where the model is exposed. Sustaining capital is elevated and will remain so for several years, dominated by tailings work at Cadia and Boddington. Reclamation spend is running well above a normal year, guided at roughly $850m in 2026 against an expected normalised $300m to $400m from 2028 once the Yanacocha water treatment plants are complete. Both are cash costs that do not produce an ounce.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from Newmont's Form 10-K filings and quarterly earnings releases, cross-checked against the SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0001164727.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 12,222 | +6.3% | $1.46 | $2.96 | $2.20 | $5,565m |
| FY2022 | 11,915 | −2.5% | $(0.54) | $1.85 | $2.20 | $5,571m |
| FY2023 † | 11,812 | −0.9% | $(2.97) | $1.61 | $1.60 | $6,951m |
| FY2024 | 18,682 | +58.2% | $2.92 | $3.48 | $1.00 | $7,552m |
| FY2025 | 22,669 | +21.3% | $6.39 | $6.89 | $1.01 | $5,115m |
† Newmont completed the all-stock acquisition of Newcrest Mining on 6 November 2023, exchanging 0.400 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share and leaving legacy Newmont and Newcrest holders with roughly 69% and 31% of the combined company. FY2023 therefore contains only about eight weeks of Newcrest, and FY2024 is the first full year. The 58.2% revenue increase from FY2023 to FY2024 is substantially acquisition, not organic growth: Lihir went from $266m to $1,473m, Cadia from $422m to $1,861m, Brucejack from $72m to $610m and Red Chris from $32m to $325m. The FY2023 GAAP loss of $(2.97) per share reflects impairments and transaction costs, not the operating result.
Long-term debt above is the non-current balance. Current debt was $87m at FY2021, nil at FY2022, $1,923m at FY2023, $924m at FY2024 and nil at FY2025 — Newmont entered 2026 with no debt maturing within one year. Cash and cash equivalents were $7,647m at 31 December 2025 with a further $594m of short-term investments, producing a net cash position of $2,058m, which had risen to $3,411m by 30 June 2026.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 6,118 | $2.10 | $2.06 |
| Q1 2026 | 7,307 | $2.90 | $3.00 |
| Q4 2025 | 6,818 | $2.52 | $1.19 |
| Q3 2025 | 5,524 | $1.71 | $1.67 |
| Q2 2025 | 5,317 | $1.43 | $1.85 |
| FY2025 total | 22,669 | $6.89 | $6.39 |
The Q4 2025 divergence between GAAP $1.19 and adjusted $2.52 reflects $779m of impairment charges and $975m of deferred tax expense recorded in that quarter. FY2025 impairment charges totalled $842m.
FY2025 cash flow and cost detail, from the 10-K: net cash provided by operating activities $10,334m; additions to property, plant and mine development $3,035m, giving free cash flow of $7,299m; depreciation and amortisation $2,521m; costs applicable to sales $8,085m; reclamation and remediation $249m; exploration $243m; general and administrative $382m. Total costs and expenses were $11,708m against sales of $22,669m. Newmont's income statement does not present an operating income subtotal and does not tag one in XBRL; income before income and mining tax and other items was $11,342m, and adjusted EBITDA was $13,480m.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $105.43 at the close on 6 August 2026 |
| Market cap | ~$111.1bn (~1,053.7m shares at $105.43) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~13.3x. Trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $7.92 is the sum of Q3 2025 $1.67, Q4 2025 $1.19, Q1 2026 $3.00 and Q2 2026 $2.06. On trailing-twelve-month adjusted EPS of $9.23, which excludes the Q4 2025 impairment and deferred tax charges, the same share price is roughly 11.4x earnings. |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — Newmont does not publish an earnings-per-share forecast. Its 2026 guidance is expressed in ounces, all-in sustaining cost and capital spend, with a stated gold price assumption of $4,500 per ounce, so any forward multiple would be an assumed metal price rather than a company figure. |
| P/S (TTM) | ~4.31x (market cap ~$111.1bn / trailing-twelve-month revenue ~$25.8bn; TTM revenue is Q3 2025 $5,524m plus Q4 2025 $6,818m plus Q1 2026 $7,307m plus Q2 2026 $6,118m, totalling $25,767m) |
| Enterprise value | ~$107.2bn (market cap ~$111.1bn + total debt $5.08bn − cash $9.01bn, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Newmont is in a net cash position, so enterprise value is below market capitalisation. Including lease and other financing obligations of $515m, enterprise value is ~$107.7bn. |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~6.8x (enterprise value ~$107.2bn / trailing-twelve-month EBITDA ~$15.75bn). Because Newmont does not report an operating income line, EBITDA is derived as sales less total costs and expenses, plus depreciation and amortisation, using the reported quarterly figures for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026: sales $25,767m less costs and expenses $12,561m gives $13,206m, plus D&A of $2,544m. This uses the cash-flow-statement D&A. Note that the derived figure is depressed by the $779m of impairment charges recorded within Q4 2025 costs; Newmont's own adjusted EBITDA measure, which excludes those, was $13,480m for FY2025 alone. |
| P/FCF | ~11.4x (market cap ~$111.1bn / trailing-twelve-month free cash flow ~$9.73bn; FCF = operating cash flow $12,628m − capital expenditure $2,895m across Q3 2025 to Q2 2026). On the FY2025 full-year figures the ratio is ~15.2x, using operating cash flow $10,334m less capex $3,035m for free cash flow of $7,299m. |
| 52-week high | $134.88 |
| 52-week low | $66.94 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 1.87%, being 19,917,795 shares short at the 15 July 2026 settlement date. Short interest has held in a 1.6% to 1.9% band all year despite the share price falling from roughly $113 in April to roughly $95 in July. |
| Days to cover | 2.9 |
| Dividend yield | ~1.0% on the $1.04 annualised rate at $105.43 |
| Gold spot price | ~$4,262 per ounce on 6 August 2026, against a 2026 record high of $5,602 set on 28 January 2026 and Newmont's guidance assumption of $4,500 |
Live price action and technical levels for this and other tickers are on the ChartsView Live Charts page.
7. What Are They Building
Tanami Expansion 2, Australia. A 1,460m hoisting shaft and associated infrastructure taking the operation to 3.3 million tonnes a year and extending mine life beyond 2040. Total capital of $1.7bn to $1.8bn, of which $1.3bn has been spent since approval including $284m in 2025. Commercial production is expected in the second half of 2027, with the production and efficiency uplift running from 2028 to 2032.
Cadia panel caves, Australia. Two caves extending mine life well beyond 2030. PC2-3 targets 1.0 Moz of gold and more than 400 kt of copper over a ten-year cave life to 2034, peaking between 2027 and 2032; its last drawbell is expected in the second half of 2026. PC1-2 is the larger prize at 4.0 Moz of gold and more than 700 kt of copper over a fifteen-year life to 2042, peaking between 2030 and 2040 at 275 to 325 koz of gold a year; its first drawbell was fired in December 2025. Newmont's post-acquisition spend on PC1-2 is $900m to $1.0bn through 2029.
Lihir Nearshore Barrier, Papua New Guinea. A water seepage barrier unlocking additional Kapit phases worth more than 5 Moz of gold and extending mine life beyond 2040. Capital of $500m to $550m with completion in 2028. Management highlighted this project specifically on the Q2 2026 call.
Red Chris block cave, British Columbia. British Columbia approved the amended Environmental Assessment Certificate on 18 June 2026 with 27 binding conditions, twelve of them co-developed with the Tahltan Central Government, alongside an amended Mines Act permit. The transition from open pit to block cave extends mine life into the mid-2040s and is expected to lift Canada's national copper production by roughly 15%. A definitive feasibility study is due in the second half of 2026, followed by a full-funds investment decision. Management flagged on 24 July 2026 that capital will likely exceed the Newcrest-era estimates.
Cerro Negro District Expansion 1, Argentina. Developing the Marianas and Eastern districts simultaneously to add roughly 3.5 Moz and extend mine life beyond 2038, at a capital cost of $550m to $600m with $171m spent since approval. The project restarted after a one-year pause for capital-allocation reassessment and safety and productivity improvements.
Ahafo North, Ghana. Commercial production was declared on 24 October 2025 with an initial 13-year mine life. 2026 is the first full year, guided at 315 koz at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,285 per ounce as the mill continues to ramp.
8. Competitive Position
Newmont is the largest of the listed gold producers on both market capitalisation and attributable production, at roughly 1.7 times Agnico Eagle and 1.8 times Barrick on output. Market capitalisations below are as at the close on 6 August 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) | $85.2bn | FY2025 payable gold production 3,447,367 oz at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,339 per ounce; realised gold price $3,453 per ounce |
| Barrick Mining (B) | $69.3bn | FY2025 attributable gold production 3,255,000 oz at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,637 per ounce; 2026 AISC guidance $1,760 to $1,950 per ounce. Operator of Nevada Gold Mines, in which Newmont holds 38.5%. |
| AngloGold Ashanti (AU) | $44.3bn | FY2025 gold production 3.09 Moz, up 16% year on year, at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,709 per ounce; record free cash flow of $2.9bn |
| Gold Fields (GFI) | $33.4bn | FY2025 production 2.44 Moz gold-equivalent, up 18%, at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,645 per ounce; 2026 AISC guidance $1,800 to $2,000 per ounce |
| Kinross Gold (KGC) | $30.6bn | FY2025 attributable production 2,012,106 gold-equivalent ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,571 per ounce sold; 2026 AISC guidance $1,730 per ounce |
Two cautions apply when reading that table. Cost conventions differ: Newmont's headline $1,358 per ounce for FY2025 is a by-product figure flattered by copper, silver, lead and zinc credits — Peñasquito's by-product AISC in Q2 2026 was negative $4,352 per ounce — whereas Newmont's own co-product measure for Q2 2026 was $1,938 against a by-product $1,621. Production conventions also differ: Gold Fields and Kinross report gold-equivalent ounces, while Newmont, Barrick, Agnico and AngloGold report gold. Separately, Zijin Mining Group carried a larger market capitalisation than Newmont in August 2026 but is classified as a diversified copper-gold miner rather than a gold producer.
9. Insider and Institutional Activity
President and Chief Executive Officer Natascha Viljoen, who took office on 1 January 2026, held 152,089 shares after her February 2026 vesting events. A review of the 55 Form 4 filings made by Newmont insiders between 1 January and 7 August 2026 shows no open-market purchases by any insider during the period. Open-market sales totalled roughly 74,956 shares for about $8.46m across six insiders, and all but one carry an explicit Rule 10b5-1 plan representation.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Toth | 03 Aug 2026 | Open-market sale | 3,000 | $93.45 | $280,350 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 17 Dec 2025 |
| Peter Toth | 01 Jul 2026 | Open-market sale | 3,000 | $92.38 | $277,140 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 17 Dec 2025 |
| Natascha Viljoen | 01 Jun 2026 | Open-market sale | 3,882 | $105.32 | $408,852 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 23 Feb 2026 |
| Peter Wexler | 01 May 2026 | Open-market sale | 13,378 | $110.11 | $1,473,052 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 01 Dec 2025 |
| David Fry | 16 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 18,394 | $111.45 weighted average | ~$2,050,000 | No plan stated on the filing |
| David Thornton | 03 Mar 2026 | Open-market sale | 8,060 | $120.78 | $973,487 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 01 Dec 2025 |
| Mark Rodgers | 27 Feb 2026 | Open-market sale | 4,443 | $130.00 | $577,590 | Rule 10b5-1 plan dated 24 Nov 2025 |
Peter Toth has sold 3,000 shares a month from March to August 2026, which is characteristic of an automatic plan rather than a discretionary view. The one filing without a stated plan is David Fry's 18,394-share sale on 16 March 2026. Newmont itself has been by far the largest buyer of the stock, repurchasing $2,303m in FY2025 and $3,462m across the first half of 2026, with $4.3bn remaining under the current authorisation at 23 July 2026.
10. Key Risks
- Unhedged commodity price exposure: the 10-K states that a substantial or extended decline in gold, copper, silver, lead or zinc prices would have a material adverse effect, and that Newmont's strategy is not to hedge. Sensitivity is roughly $505m pre-tax per $100 per ounce gold move, plus about $6 per ounce of royalties and production taxes. 2026 guidance assumes $4,500 per ounce against spot of roughly $4,262 on 6 August 2026.
- Geotechnical and seismic failure: the filing warns that geotechnical, geothermal and hydrogeological challenges could adversely affect production, and that a tailings facility, dam or pit-slope failure could suspend operations and trigger investigations and penalties. This is live rather than theoretical: Cadia was suspended after a magnitude 4.5 event in April 2026 and again after two tremors on 19 June 2026, and $1.95bn of 2026 sustaining capital is dominated by tailings work at Cadia and Boddington.
- Reclamation and closure liabilities: $6,297m of reclamation and remediation liabilities at 31 December 2025. Roughly $850m of spend is planned in 2026, of which about $550m is at Yanacocha, against total estimated Yanacocha water treatment spend of roughly $1.8bn with $1.1bn already incurred. Accretion guidance of $385m for 2026 is up from a $249m expense in 2025.
- Fiscal and political risk in host countries: the 10-K names Peru, Ghana, Papua New Guinea, Argentina, Mexico, Suriname and Canada individually. Ghana's cabinet approved revised mining legislation on 15 July 2026 with a sliding-scale royalty and signalled the phasing out of the fiscal stability agreements under which Ahafo operates, and Q2 2026 costs already carried a full quarter of increased Ghanaian royalties. Papua New Guinea's Income Tax Act 2025 took effect on 1 January 2026 with limited consultation, and the Lihir special mining lease will require extension on expiry.
- Reserve replacement and estimate uncertainty: the filing warns Newmont may be unable to replace reserves as they deplete, that reserve and resource estimates are uncertain and recovered volume and grade may vary, and that project and mine-plan estimates may prove optimistic on cost and return. Management has already flagged that Red Chris capital will likely exceed the Newcrest-era estimate.
- Impairment of goodwill and long-lived assets: $2,658m of goodwill sits on the balance sheet, primarily from the Newcrest acquisition, and FY2025 already carried $842m of impairment charges including $779m in Q4 2025.
- Water availability at Peñasquito: the operation sits in an area of high baseline water stress and draws from the Cedros Aquifer, which the 10-K describes as having limited and declining yield in a dry and arid region. Peñasquito is 15.1% of revenue and the source of essentially all silver, lead and zinc credits.
- Non-operated joint-venture exposure: Nevada Gold Mines, at 38.5% and $3,560m of FY2025 revenue, is operated by Barrick, and Newmont has served a notice of default that remained unresolved as at 24 July 2026. Further non-operated interests include Pueblo Viejo at 40%, Norte Abierto and NuevaUnión at 50% each and Lundin Gold at 32%.
- Cost inflation and energy: the filing cites inflation in Argentina specifically, warns of rising energy prices or shortages across purchased electricity, diesel, heavy fuel oil and natural gas, and notes reliance on contractors and on supply chains for critical parts and equipment. Q2 2026 costs applicable to sales were explicitly affected by higher diesel prices.
- Contingent divestiture consideration: much of the headline value of the seven divested assets was structured as up-to figures with contingent components, and the 10-K states Newmont may not receive any or all of the deferred or contingent consideration, naming Telfer, CC&V, Musselwhite and Éléonore.
11. Recent Developments
- 12 Jun 2026 — LunR Royalties shares received. A Newmont subsidiary received 16,099,564 common shares of LunR Royalties Corp. as a dividend in kind from Lundin Gold, in which Newmont holds a 32% interest.
- 15 Jun 2026 — Executive team rebuilt. Brian Tabolt appointed Chief Financial Officer, Mark Rodgers Chief Operating Officer, David Thornton Chief Technical Officer and David Fry EVP Project Development, all effective 1 July 2026 and all internal promotions. Tabolt succeeded Peter Wexler, who had served as interim CFO after Karyn Ovelmen departed in July 2025.
- 18 Jun 2026 — Red Chris environmental approval granted. British Columbia approved the amended Environmental Assessment Certificate for the open-pit-to-block-cave transition with 27 binding conditions, twelve co-developed with the Tahltan Central Government, which had given notice of Tahltan consent on 22 May 2026.
- 19 Jun 2026 — Cadia suspended for a second time. Underground operations were halted after two tremors of magnitude 3.2 and 3.4 within the mine site. All personnel were reported safe. Newmont's ASX depositary interests fell 6.7% on the news.
- 15 Jul 2026 — Ghana approved a revised mining law. Ghana's cabinet approved amendments for submission to parliament, following the introduction of a price-linked sliding-scale gold royalty and signalling plans to phase out fiscal stability agreements.
- 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Record second-quarter free cash flow of $2,205m, revenue of $6,118m, adjusted EPS of $2.10 against $1.43 a year earlier, attributable gold production of 1,293 koz at a by-product all-in sustaining cost of $1,621 per ounce, a realised gold price of $4,414 per ounce, and full-year guidance reaffirmed. A $0.26 dividend was declared and $1.7bn of buybacks had been executed since the Q1 call.
- 24 Jul 2026 — Lihir upside and the Barrick dispute detailed on the call. Management set out the Lihir Nearshore Barrier as unlocking more than 5 Moz from 2028, guided sustaining capital up roughly $150m in Q3, confirmed more than 100 million shares repurchased to date, and said the Nevada Gold Mines dispute with Barrick remained unresolved following Newmont's notice of default.
- 06 Aug 2026 — Shares firmed with the gold price. NEM closed at $105.43, up 1.09% on the day, as gold held near its highest level since 18 June at roughly $4,262 per ounce.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 03 Sep 2026 — record date for the Q2 2026 dividend of $0.26 per share.
- 28 Sep 2026 — payment date for the Q2 2026 dividend of $0.26 per share.
- Expected 01 Oct 2026 — confirmation of the Q3 2026 results date. Newmont has historically issued the conference-call notice roughly three weeks ahead.
- Expected 22 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Newmont had not confirmed the date as at 7 August 2026; Q3 2025 was reported on 23 October 2025, after the North American close.
- Expected Dec 2026 — last drawbell fired at the Cadia PC2-3 panel cave, and delivery of the Red Chris block cave definitive feasibility study, both guided to the second half of 2026.
- TBC — full-funds final investment decision on the Red Chris block cave, expected to follow the definitive feasibility study.
- Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 results, 2027 guidance and the annual recalculation of the per-share dividend against the then-current share count under the $1.1bn aggregate framework.
- Expected Dec 2027 — commercial production at Tanami Expansion 2, guided to the second half of 2027.
- Expected Dec 2028 — completion of the Lihir Nearshore Barrier, and the point at which reclamation spend is expected to normalise to $300m to $400m a year once the Yanacocha water treatment plants are complete.
Undated items worth tracking: resolution of the Nevada Gold Mines notice of default served on Barrick; the passage of Ghana's revised mining legislation through parliament and its effect on Newmont's Revised Investment Agreement; the resumption schedule and any capital consequences at Cadia following the June 2026 seismic events; and receipt of contingent consideration from the divested assets. Scheduled macro releases that move the gold price are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and readers can discuss this report on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 20 June 2026
The Sherwin-Williams Company (NYSE: SHW) is the largest paints and coatings business in the world, built around a company-operated store network that sells directly to professional painters and contractors across North America. In its 2025 fiscal year the company delivered record net sales of $23.57 billion and record adjusted earnings, lifting its dividend for a 47th consecutive year, even as soft do-it-yourself demand and a sluggish new-housing market held back volumes. This report walks through how Sherwin-Williams makes money, what its three operating segments contribute, the strength of its balance sheet and cash generation, where the valuation sits today, and the risks and catalysts investors are watching into the second half of 2026. Explore the price action on our Live Charts and track upcoming releases on the Economic Calendar.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | SHW (NYSE) |
| Sector / Industry | Materials — Specialty Chemicals (Paints & Coatings) |
| Headquarters | Cleveland, Ohio, United States |
| CEO | Heidi G. Petz (Chair, President & CEO) |
| Employees | 64,249 (at 31 December 2025) |
| Market capitalisation | ~$77.3 billion (June 2026) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $23.57 billion |
| Net income (FY2025) | $2.57 billion |
| Diluted EPS (FY2025) | $10.26 GAAP / $11.43 adjusted |
| Quarterly dividend | $0.80 per share (~$3.20 annualised; 47 consecutive years of increases) |
| 52-week range | $301.58 – $379.65 |
| Next earnings | Q2 2026 results, expected late July 2026 |
2. Bull vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Unrivalled distribution moat: Sherwin-Williams operates thousands of company-owned stores in the Paint Stores Group that sell directly to professional contractors, a controlled channel competitors cannot easily replicate and the engine of roughly 58% of group sales.
- Pricing power and high margins: Full-year 2025 gross margin reached 48.8%, near record levels, demonstrating the company's ability to push price and manage raw-material costs through the cycle.
- Prodigious cash generation: The company produced $3.45 billion of operating cash flow in 2025 (14.6% of sales) and returned $2.45 billion to shareholders through buybacks and a 47th straight annual dividend increase.
- International and adjacency expansion: The completed Suvinil acquisition adds a leading Brazilian architectural-paint brand, extending the Consumer Brands Group's reach into a large emerging market.
- Operating leverage on recovery: With DIY and new-residential demand still depressed, a housing-market upturn would convert into outsized volume and margin gains given the largely fixed store base.
Bear Case
- Demand softness persists: Core North American DIY demand remained soft through 2025 and Performance Coatings sales were broadly flat, leaving the top line growing only in the low-single digits.
- Housing and construction cyclicality: A large share of revenue is tied to new residential, repaint and commercial construction activity that is sensitive to interest rates and the broader economy.
- Rising leverage from deals: Total debt climbed almost $1 billion in 2025 to about $10.87 billion as the company funded the Suvinil purchase, new headquarters and buybacks.
- Premium valuation: The shares trade around 30 times trailing earnings, a rich multiple that leaves little room for execution missteps if a demand recovery is delayed.
- Input-cost and tariff exposure: Raw-material inflation, energy prices and shifting trade/tariff policy can compress margins faster than price can be recovered.
3. Business Segments
Sherwin-Williams reports through three operating segments. The figures below are full-year 2025 net sales.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Paint Stores Group | 57.7% | Company-operated stores across North America selling Sherwin-Williams branded architectural and protective coatings directly to professional painters, contractors and DIY customers. FY2025 net sales of $13.61 billion. |
| Performance Coatings Group | 28.8% | Industrial and OEM coatings sold worldwide — including packaging, automotive refinish, general industrial, coil and protective & marine coatings. FY2025 net sales of $6.80 billion. |
| Consumer Brands Group | 13.4% | Supplies branded and private-label architectural paint through retailers and other distribution, plus international architectural operations including the newly acquired Suvinil business in Brazil. FY2025 net sales of $3.17 billion. |
A small Administrative line carries unallocated corporate costs. Net sales by segment sum to the consolidated $23.57 billion reported for 2025.
4. How Sherwin-Williams Makes Money
Sherwin-Williams is, at its core, a manufacturer and direct distributor of coatings. It earns the bulk of its profit by formulating paint and selling it through channels it controls, where it captures both the manufacturing and the retail margin.
The professional contractor model. The Paint Stores Group is the heart of the business. Rather than relying mainly on third-party retailers, Sherwin-Williams runs its own stores staffed to serve painting contractors who value consistent product, colour matching, fast availability and credit terms. This direct relationship produces recurring, high-margin revenue and deep switching costs, and it is why the Paint Stores Group generated segment profit of roughly $3.06 billion in 2025.
Industrial coatings and global reach. The Performance Coatings Group sells specialised coatings to manufacturers worldwide — from beverage cans to car repairs to industrial equipment — spreading the company across end-markets and geographies. The Consumer Brands Group rounds out the model by supplying retail shelves and international architectural markets. Across all three, the economics rest on scale purchasing of raw materials, pricing discipline and the operating leverage of a large, mostly fixed store and plant footprint.
5. Financial Health
The five-year record below is drawn from Sherwin-Williams' annual earnings releases and Form 10-K filings. Adjusted EPS excludes Valspar acquisition-related amortisation and certain restructuring and impairment items.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $19,944.6m | — | $6.98 | $8.15 | $2.20 | $8,591m |
| 2022 | $22,148.9m | +11.1% | $7.72 | $8.73 | $2.40 | $9,591m |
| 2023 | $23,051.9m | +4.1% | $9.25 | $10.35 | $2.42 | $8,378m |
| 2024 | $23,098.5m | +0.2% | $10.55 | $11.33 | $2.86 | $8,176.8m |
| 2025 | $23,574.3m | +2.1% | $10.26 | $11.43 | $3.16 | $9,320.7m |
Quarterly net sales and earnings are shown below, most recent first, with the bold full-year 2025 total at the foot.
| Quarter | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $5,670m | $2.35 | $2.15 |
| Q4 2025 | $5,595.9m | $2.23 | $1.92 |
| Q3 2025 | $6,360m | $3.59 | $3.35 |
| Q2 2025 | $6,310m | $3.38 | $3.00 |
| Q1 2025 | $5,310m | $2.25 | $2.00 |
| FY2025 total | $23,574.3m | $11.43 | $10.26 |
Net income for 2025 was $2,568.5 million. The company carried cash of $207.2 million against total debt of $10,871.3 million (short-term borrowings $1,200.5m + current portion of long-term debt $350.1m + long-term debt $9,320.7m) at year-end, with shareholders' equity of $4,598.3 million. Operating cash flow of $3.45 billion comfortably covered capital expenditure of $797.6 million and dividends.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$77.3bn (246.4m shares × $313.80) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~30x (price $313.80 / TTM GAAP EPS ~$10.42; TTM = Q2–Q4 2025 plus Q1 2026) |
| P/E (forward) | ~27x (price $313.80 / FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint $11.70, range $11.50–$11.90) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~3.2x (market cap ~$77.3bn / TTM revenue ~$23.9bn) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~19.6x (EV ~$88.0bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$4.48bn; EBITDA = pre-tax income $3,338.2m + interest $465.0m + D&A $676.9m) |
| P/FCF | ~29x (market cap ~$77.3bn / FCF ~$2.65bn; FCF = operating cash flow $3.45bn − capex $0.80bn per FY2025 cash flow statement) |
| Enterprise value | ~$88.0bn (market cap ~$77.3bn + total debt $10.87bn − cash $0.21bn per FY2025 balance sheet) |
| 52-week high | $379.65 |
| 52-week low | $301.58 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~2.4% (as of 30 April 2026) |
| Days to cover | ~3.4 |
7. Growth Drivers
The clearest structural driver is continued share gains in the professional contractor channel, where Sherwin-Williams' store density and service model let it win business through housing cycles. Management's "Success by Design" strategy targets new store openings, sales-rep additions and productivity gains funded by disciplined capital spending now stepping down toward roughly 2% of sales.
Beyond the core, the Suvinil acquisition and the broader Consumer Brands Group give the company exposure to faster-growing international architectural markets, while Performance Coatings offers leverage to industrial recovery and packaging demand. The biggest cyclical lever remains a recovery in new residential construction and DIY repaint volumes, which have been the principal drag on growth and would translate into meaningful operating leverage across the fixed store and plant base when activity turns.
8. Peer Comparison
| Peer | Market cap (June 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| PPG Industries (PPG) | ~$26.4bn | FY2024 net sales ~$15.8bn; global coatings number-two |
| RPM International (RPM) | ~$14.0bn | FY net sales ~$7.4bn across specialty coatings and sealants |
| AkzoNobel (AKZA) | ~$10bn | FY2025 revenue ~€10.2bn; agreed merger with Axalta |
| Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) | ~$7.4bn | FY2025 net sales ~$5.2bn; automotive refinish and industrial |
9. Insider Activity
Recent insider activity at Sherwin-Williams consists of routine equity-compensation events and tax-related share withholding rather than open-market buying or selling. There has been no material insider purchase or discretionary sale signalling a directional view. The company is led by Chair, President and CEO Heidi G. Petz. Selected 2026 Form 4 filings are summarised below.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin T. Binns (EVP) | 17 Feb 2026 | Acquire (PRSU vest) | 9,900 | $368.59 | ~$3.65m | 2023–2025 performance RSU |
| James R. Jaye (SVP) | 17 Feb 2026 | Acquire (PRSU vest) | 2,100 | $368.59 | ~$0.77m | 2023–2025 performance RSU |
| Thomas J. Williams (Director) | 06 Apr 2026 | Acquire (deferred units) | 106.97 | $315.50 | ~$33.7k | Director Deferred Fee Plan |
| Kerrii B. Anderson (Director) | 09 Jan 2026 | Acquire (deferred units) | 28.94 | $345.60 | ~$10.0k | Director Deferred Fee Plan |
| Michael H. Thaman (Director) | 16 Feb 2026 | Grant (RSU) | 558 | $0.00 | — | 2025 Equity & Incentive Plan |
10. Key Risks
- Macro and housing cyclicality: A material share of demand depends on residential construction, repaint and commercial activity that weakens when interest rates are high or the economy slows.
- Raw-material and tariff costs: Prices for resins, pigments, solvents and energy, together with shifting import/export tariffs, can compress margins faster than price increases can offset them.
- Competition: Well-funded rivals including PPG, Behr (Masco), AkzoNobel and Axalta compete on price, distribution and innovation across architectural and industrial coatings.
- Acquisition integration: Integrating Suvinil and other deals carries execution risk and has added debt and interest expense to the balance sheet.
- Lead-pigment and environmental litigation: Sherwin-Williams faces ongoing legal and remediation exposure related to lead pigment and to environmental obligations at current and former sites.
- Foreign-currency and international exposure: Expanding operations in Latin America, Europe and Asia increase sensitivity to currency moves and regional economic conditions.
11. Recent Developments
- 28 Apr 2026 — First-quarter 2026 results. Net sales rose 6.8% to $5.67 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.35; the company reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $11.50 to $11.90 and roughly doubled its targeted restructuring savings to about $105 million amid persistent demand softness.
- 09 Feb 2026 — Credit agreement extended. Sherwin-Williams amended its Citicorp credit facility, extending commitments to December 2030, reinforcing liquidity.
- 20 Jan 2026 — Full-year 2025 results. Record net sales of $23.57 billion and record adjusted EPS of $11.43; the board lifted the quarterly dividend to $0.80 per share, a 47th consecutive annual increase.
- 31 Oct 2025 — Suvinil acquisition completed. The company closed its roughly $1.15 billion purchase of BASF's Brazilian architectural-paints business Suvinil (about $525 million of 2024 sales), adding it to the Consumer Brands Group.
- 01 Jan 2026 — New global headquarters. Sherwin-Williams completed the move into its new headquarters tower in downtown Cleveland, with staff returning to office on a full-time basis in 2026.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- 28 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter 2026 results (approximate; to be confirmed by the company)
- Expected October 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 results
- Expected January 2027 — Full-year and fourth-quarter 2026 results
- Expected September 2026 — Next quarterly dividend declaration and payment
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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 30 Oct 2026
Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) is one of the world’s largest commodity and specialty chemical makers. It sells polyethylene, industrial intermediates such as glycols and polyurethanes, and silicones and coatings, mostly from integrated ethylene crackers on the US Gulf Coast, in Canada and in Europe. FY2025 was a loss year: net sales fell 7.0% to $39.97bn, GAAP EPS was −$3.70 and operating EPS −$0.94, and the quarterly dividend was halved to $0.35. 2026 has brought a recovery. Q3 2026 net sales rose 13% to $11.27bn on higher prices, operating EPS was $0.71, and cash from operations reached $4.29bn for the first nine months. Karen S. Carter became CEO on 01 Jul 2026, and the Transform to Outperform cost programme is targeting about $700m of EBITDA uplift this year. Since the last version of this report (16 Jun 2026) Dow has reported Q2 and Q3 2026 results, S&P has moved its outlook to stable, and the CEO handover has taken place. All figures come from Dow’s earnings releases and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / Exchange | DOW / NYSE |
| CEO / Leadership | Karen S. Carter, Chief Executive Officer since 01 Jul 2026 (previously COO); Jim Fitterling, Executive Chair (CEO 2018–2026); Jeffrey L. Tate, CFO |
| Sector | Materials — commodity and specialty chemicals, plastics, silicones and coatings |
| Employees | ~34,600 full-time at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K) |
| Market cap | ~$24.6bn ($34.01 at 26 Oct 2026 close × 723.88m shares per the Q3 2026 10-Q cover) |
| FY2025 Revenue | $39,968m net sales (−7.0%) |
| FY2025 earnings | GAAP diluted EPS −$3.70; operating EPS (non-GAAP) −$0.94 |
| Q3 2026 | Net sales $11,267m (+13%), GAAP EPS $0.62, operating EPS $0.71, operating EBITDA $1,553m |
| Dividend | $0.35 quarterly ($1.40 annualised), cut from $0.70 in Q3 2025; ~4.1% yield at $34.01 |
| Credit ratings | S&P BBB− (stable), Moody’s Baa3 (negative), Fitch BBB (stable), per the Q3 2026 10-Q |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Earnings turning up: Operating EPS was $1.44 in Q2 2026 and $0.71 in Q3 2026, against −$0.42 and −$0.19 a year earlier. Q3 net sales rose 13%, with local prices up 14%.
- Self-help programme ahead of plan: Transform to Outperform is now targeting about $700m of operating EBITDA uplift in 2026, up from $500m at launch, and about $2bn in total by the end of 2027.
- Strong 2026 cash generation: Cash from operations was $4,287m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026, and free cash flow was $2,446m. Dow also received about CAD 1.8bn from NOVA Chemicals in Mar 2026 and has reduced debt by about $600m this year.
- Credit outlook stabilised: S&P moved its BBB− rating to a stable outlook on 30 Jul 2026, citing better expected earnings and credit metrics.
- Higher-margin growth projects: Silicones expansions in the US, China and Japan target electronics, AI and data-centre cooling, and management says many have a two-to-three-year payback.
Bear Case
- Loss-making 2025 and halved dividend: FY2025 GAAP EPS was −$3.70 and operating EPS −$0.94. The quarterly dividend was cut from $0.70 to $0.35 from Q3 2025.
- Long revenue decline: Net sales fell from $56.9bn in FY2022 to $40.0bn in FY2025, a compound decline of about 7.7% a year between FY2021 and FY2025.
- Ratings one notch above junk: S&P cut Dow to BBB− on 18 Feb 2026 and Moody’s to Baa3 on 27 Feb 2026, with Moody’s still on negative outlook. Total debt was ~$17.5bn at 30 Sep 2026.
- Path2Zero delayed: First start-up of the ~$7.5bn Alberta net-zero cracker has been pushed back to late 2029, about two years later than originally planned.
- Global oversupply and write-downs: Dow is closing three European upstream assets, and booked a $292m Sadara guarantee charge in Q1 2026. Its 10-K cites industry oversupply in Europe and Asia Pacific.
3. Business Segments
Dow reports three operating segments plus Corporate. Percentages use FY2025 net sales of $39,968m.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Packaging & Specialty Plastics | 50.0% ($19,970m) | Ethylene and polyethylene from integrated crackers, used in food and consumer packaging, wire and cable, and infrastructure. FY2025 operating EBIT $827m. |
| Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure | 27.9% ($11,163m) | Ethylene oxide and glycols, propylene oxide, polyurethanes, chlor-alkali and vinyl, and construction chemicals. FY2025 operating EBIT −$561m. |
| Performance Materials & Coatings | 20.4% ($8,134m) | Silicones, acrylics and coatings for consumer, mobility, electronics and architectural markets. FY2025 operating EBIT $306m. |
| Corporate | 1.8% ($701m) | Non-business items, including insurance operations and licensing. FY2025 operating EBIT −$150m. |
Q3 2026 segment net sales were Packaging & Specialty Plastics $5,778m (+18%), Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure $3,058m (+8%) and Performance Materials & Coatings $2,250m (+8%). Operating EBIT was $585m, $176m and $154m respectively.
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. Dow turns natural gas liquids and naphtha into ethylene and propylene, then into plastics, chemicals and silicones that it sells to packaging, construction, consumer, industrial and mobility customers. Profit depends mainly on the spread between product prices and feedstock and energy costs, so earnings swing with the chemical cycle.
Cost position. Its US Gulf Coast and Canadian crackers run largely on low-cost ethane, which gives them an advantage over naphtha-based plants in Europe and Asia when oil is expensive relative to gas. Dow is closing higher-cost European assets, including the Böhlen cracker and the Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl units, to improve its average cost position.
Scale and integration. Large integrated sites, a broad product range and joint ventures such as Sadara give Dow scale advantages in purchasing, logistics and technology. The trade-off is heavy fixed costs and capital needs, which hurt returns when industry capacity outruns demand, as in 2024–2025.
5. Financial Health
Annual figures are from Dow’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Adjusted EPS is Dow’s non-GAAP operating EPS, which excludes significant items. Long-term debt is the non-current amount on the year-end balance sheet.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $54,968m | +42.6% | $8.38 | $8.98 | $2.80 | $14,280m |
| FY2022 | $56,902m | +3.5% | $6.28 | $6.25 | $2.80 | $14,698m |
| FY2023 | $44,622m | −21.6% | $0.82 | $2.24 | $2.80 | $14,907m |
| FY2024 | $42,964m | −3.7% | $1.57 | $1.71 | $2.80 | $15,711m |
| FY2025 | $39,968m | −7.0% | −$3.70 | −$0.94 | $2.10 | $17,849m |
FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 net sales of $38,542m. Dividends are declared per share as reported in SEC XBRL; FY2025 reflects the cut to $0.35 a quarter from Q3 2025. Long-term debt is from the SEC XBRL tag for long-term debt and finance leases due after one year.
Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11,267m | $0.71 | $0.62 |
| Q2 2026 | $12,092m | $1.44 | $0.99 |
| Q1 2026 | $9,794m | −$0.14 | −$0.74 |
| Q4 2025 | $9,460m | −$0.34 | −$2.15 |
| Q3 2025 | $9,973m | −$0.19 | $0.08 |
| Q2 2025 | $10,104m | −$0.42 | −$1.18 |
| Q1 2025 | $10,431m | $0.02 | −$0.44 |
| FY2025 total | $39,968m | −$0.94 | −$3.70 |
Q3 2026 significant items of −$0.09 a share mainly reflected Transform to Outperform costs and a $53m loss on early debt repurchases, partly offset by a $69m pre-tax gain linked to the NOVA Chemicals matter. Q1 2026 GAAP EPS included a $292m Sadara guarantee charge. Over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026, net sales were ~$42.6bn, GAAP EPS ~−$1.28 and operating EPS ~$1.67.
Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL data and Dow’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q).
- Operating cash flow (continuing operations): $1,062m in FY2025; $4,287m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026; ~$4,585m trailing twelve months.
- Capital expenditure: $2,479m in FY2025, giving free cash flow of −$1,417m; $1,841m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026; ~$2,409m trailing twelve months, giving TTM free cash flow of ~$2,176m.
- Depreciation & amortisation: $2,834m in FY2025; ~$2,757m trailing twelve months.
- Debt at 30 Sep 2026: $16,778m of non-current long-term debt, $745m due within one year and $16m of notes payable, ~$17,539m in total.
- Cash at 30 Sep 2026: cash and equivalents $4,142m; no short-term marketable securities are reported. Management puts total liquidity at about $14bn, with no substantive debt maturities until 2029.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$24.6bn (price $34.01 at 26 Oct 2026 close × 723.88m shares) |
| Enterprise value | ~$38.0bn (market cap ~$24.6bn + total debt ~$17.5bn − cash ~$4.1bn per 30 Sep 2026 balance sheet) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | n/m — TTM GAAP EPS is a loss of ~−$1.28 (Q4 2025–Q3 2026). On TTM operating EPS of ~$1.67 the multiple is ~20.4x |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — Dow does not give full-year EPS guidance, and ChartsView does not use analyst estimates |
| P/S (TTM) | ~0.58x ($24.6bn / ~$42.6bn TTM net sales) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~11.9x (EV ~$38.0bn / TTM EBITDA ~$3.19bn; Dow does not report an operating income line, so EBITDA = pre-tax income ~−$0.43bn + interest expense ~$0.86bn + D&A ~$2.76bn from the cash flow statement). GAAP EBITDA is depressed by restructuring, Sadara and other significant items |
| P/FCF | ~11.3x (market cap ~$24.6bn / TTM FCF ~$2.18bn; FCF = operating CF $4.59bn − capex $2.41bn, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). FY2025 FCF was negative (−$1.42bn), so the FY2025 multiple is n/m |
| Dividend yield | ~4.1% ($1.40 annualised / $34.01) |
| 52-week high | $42.74 |
| 52-week low | $20.93 |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~4.74% (34.09m shares at the 30 Sep 2026 settlement, down 3.8% from 15 Sep; MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | ~3.6 days |
7. What Are They Building
Dow has cut growth spending sharply and is focusing on cost reduction, while keeping a smaller set of projects.
- Transform to Outperform: Launched on 29 Jan 2026, it targets at least $2bn of operating EBITDA uplift, about two-thirds from productivity and one-third from growth, with one-off costs of $1.1–1.5bn. About 4,500 roles are being cut, and about 70% of those reductions were complete by Q3 2026.
- Path2Zero, Alberta: The net-zero ethylene and derivatives project at Fort Saskatchewan was slowed in Apr 2025. Phase 1 is now planned to start up in late 2029 and Phase 2 by the end of 2030, with total capex of about $7.5bn. About 30% of project capex has been spent.
- Europe rationalisation: The Barry, UK siloxanes plant closed in Q2 2026. Shutdowns of the Böhlen cracker and Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl assets, announced in Jul 2025, were targeted for Q4 2027.
- Targeted growth: Projects include the Poly-7 polyethylene unit on the US Gulf Coast, alkoxylation capacity in the US and Europe, and silicones expansions aimed at electronics, data-centre cooling and mobility.
- Advanced nuclear: Dow and X-energy received an NRC Finding of No Significant Impact for their proposed Texas nuclear project on 18 May 2026.
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8. Competitive Landscape
Dow competes with integrated chemical and plastics producers in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Market caps are late-Oct 2026 values from MarketBeat stock pages (BASF from its US ADR at 09 Oct 2026). Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.
| Peer | Market cap (Oct 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| BASF (BASFY) | ~$51.9bn | FY2025 sales €59.7bn, per BASF release of 27 Feb 2026 |
| LyondellBasell (LYB) | ~$21.8bn | FY2025 sales $30.15bn, per LyondellBasell release of 30 Jan 2026 |
| DuPont (DD) | ~$18.2bn | FY2025 net sales $6.85bn from continuing operations, per DuPont release of 10 Feb 2026 |
| Westlake (WLK) | ~$8.2bn | FY2025 net sales ~$11.17bn, per Westlake release of 24 Feb 2026 |
| Eastman Chemical (EMN) | ~$7.5bn | FY2025 sales $8.75bn, per Eastman release of 29 Jan 2026 |
9. Leadership & Insider Activity
Karen S. Carter became Chief Executive Officer on 01 Jul 2026, succeeding Jim Fitterling, who became Executive Chair. Jeffrey L. Tate is CFO. New segment presidents took over Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure (Nestor de Mattos Cunha Neto, Form 3 filed 14 Aug 2026) and Performance Materials & Coatings (Charles Ross Zimmer Jr., Form 3 filed 23 Oct 2026). Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases or sales in 2026; the dispositions below are shares withheld to pay tax on vesting awards.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey L. Tate (CFO) | 26 Oct 2026 | Tax withholding | 25,564 | $33.99 | ~$868,900 | Not 10b5-1; shares withheld on vesting |
| Karen S. Carter (CEO) | 01 Jul 2026 | Award | 150,790 | $0 | n/a | Equity award on appointment as CEO |
| Eleven non-employee directors | 09 Apr 2026 | Award | 5,127 each | $0 | n/a | Annual director equity grant |
| Amy Wilson (General Counsel) | 26 Feb 2026 | Tax withholding | 3,718 | $29.90 | ~$111,200 | Shares withheld on vesting |
| Karen S. Carter (then COO) | 26 Feb 2026 | Tax withholding | 2,969 | $29.90 | ~$88,800 | Not 10b5-1; shares withheld on vesting |
| Jim Fitterling (then Chair & CEO) | 12 Feb 2026 | Award | 500,212 | $0 | n/a | Annual long-term incentive grant |
Discuss insider activity with other members on the ChartsView Forum.
10. Key Risks
- Credit ratings (Financial): Dow is rated BBB− by S&P and Baa3 by Moody’s, the lowest investment-grade levels, and Moody’s outlook is negative. A further downgrade would raise funding costs, and the 10-K lists failure to keep an investment-grade rating as a risk.
- Industry oversupply (Market): New capacity in Asia and the Middle East has pressured polyethylene and intermediates margins. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure lost $561m at the operating EBIT level in FY2025.
- Project execution (Operational): Path2Zero has already been delayed by about two years. Cost growth or further delay on a ~$7.5bn project would weigh on returns and cash flow.
- Joint ventures and write-downs (Financial): Dow booked a $292m Sadara guarantee charge in Q1 2026 and has suspended recognising Sadara equity losses. European closures bring further restructuring costs.
- Litigation and legacy liabilities (Legal): Union Carbide asbestos liabilities were $708m at 31 Dec 2025, and Dow also carries pension obligations and environmental remediation exposure.
- Macro, trade and regulation (Macro): Tariffs, the Middle East conflict that hit Q3 2026 volumes in Asia Pacific, and rules on plastic waste and chemical safety can all reduce demand or raise costs.
11. Recent Developments
- 26 Oct 2026 — CFO shares withheld for tax. 25,564 of Jeffrey Tate’s shares were withheld at $33.99 to cover tax on vesting awards; he held 93,197 shares afterwards.
- 23 Oct 2026 — New Performance Materials & Coatings president. A Form 3 was filed for Charles Ross Zimmer Jr. as president of the segment.
- 22 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 13% to $11.27bn, GAAP EPS was $0.62 and operating EPS $0.71, up from −$0.19. Free cash flow was $1.13bn, and management guided Q4 EBITDA to about $1.5bn.
- 22 Oct 2026 — Cost programme progress. Dow raised its 2026 Transform to Outperform target to about $700m and said about 70% of the ~4,500 planned role reductions were done. About $300m of debt was repurchased in Q3, with about $200m more planned in Q4.
- 15 Oct 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a $0.35 quarterly dividend, payable 11 Dec 2026 to holders of record on 30 Nov 2026.
- 14 Aug 2026 — New Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure president. A Form 3 was filed for Nestor de Mattos Cunha Neto.
- 12 Aug 2026 — Dividend declared. A $0.35 dividend was declared, paid on 11 Sep 2026.
- 30 Jul 2026 — S&P outlook to stable. S&P affirmed Dow at BBB− and moved its outlook to stable from negative.
- 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $12.09bn, GAAP EPS $0.99 and operating EPS $1.44.
- 01 Jul 2026 — CEO handover. Karen S. Carter became CEO and Jim Fitterling became Executive Chair, as announced on 14 Apr 2026.
Macro data that move chemical stocks, such as manufacturing PMIs, are tracked on the Economic Calendar.
12. Key Dates
- 30 Nov 2026 — record date for the $0.35 quarterly dividend
- 11 Dec 2026 — payment of the $0.35 quarterly dividend
- Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced; FY2025 results were released on 29 Jan 2026)
- Expected Apr 2027 — 2027 annual stockholder meeting (the 2026 meeting was held on 09 Apr 2026)
- Expected Q4 2027 — target for the Böhlen cracker and Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl shutdowns, as announced in Jul 2025
- Expected late 2029 — Path2Zero Phase 1 start-up
Dow has not yet confirmed the Q4 2026 results date.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 30 Oct 2026
Mondi plc (MNDI) is a paper and packaging group with a primary listing in London and a secondary listing in Johannesburg. It makes containerboard, kraft paper and uncoated fine paper in its own mills, mainly in Central and Eastern Europe, and converts them into corrugated boxes, paper bags and flexible packaging. It reports in euros. FY2025 revenue was €7,663m (+3.3%), but underlying EPS fell to 56.5 euro cents and the total ordinary dividend was cut to 28.25c from 70.0c. Conditions have stayed weak in 2026. H1 2026 underlying EBITDA fell to €379m from €564m, €296m of impairments led to a statutory loss, and the interim dividend was cut to 9.42c. The Q3 2026 trading update on 15 Oct reported underlying EBITDA of €196m against €223m a year earlier. Since the last version of this report (15 Jun 2026) Mondi has reported its half-year results and Q3 trading update, cut 2026 capex guidance to about €500m and started selling converting plants. Every figure comes from Mondi’s results announcements, trading updates and RNS notices. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.
Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker / exchange | MNDI — London Stock Exchange (primary listing); secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange |
| CEO / Leadership | Andrew King, Group Chief Executive Officer; Mike Powell, Group Chief Financial Officer; Philip Yea, Chair |
| Sector | Materials — paper-based and flexible packaging, containerboard, kraft paper and uncoated fine paper |
| Employees | About 24,000 (2025 Integrated Report); average 22,100 full-time equivalents in FY2025 |
| FY2025 Revenue | €7,663m, up 3.3% (FY2024: €7,416m), helped by the Schumacher Packaging acquisition |
| FY2025 earnings | Underlying EBITDA €1,001m (13.1% margin); basic EPS 37.4c; underlying EPS 56.5c |
| H1 2026 | Revenue €3,975m; underlying EBITDA €379m (9.5% margin); basic EPS (57.8)c after €320m of special items; underlying EPS 11.6c |
| Dividend per share | FY2025 total ordinary dividend 28.25c (FY2024: 70.0c); 2026 interim 9.42c (2025 interim: 23.33c) |
| Net debt | €2,632m at 30 Jun 2026, 3.2x underlying EBITDA (€2,599m and 2.6x at 31 Dec 2025) |
| Credit ratings | S&P BBB (stable); Moody’s Baa1 (negative), as stated at 30 Jul 2026 |
2. Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price increases coming through: The Q3 2026 update reported positive price momentum backed by good order books. Mondi has announced further price rises for several paper grades, with the benefit expected towards the end of 2026 and into 2027.
- Expansion spending largely complete: Major capacity projects are mostly finished, adding about 300,000 tonnes of output in 2026. 2026 capex guidance has been cut to about €500m, from €673m of property, plant and equipment spending in FY2025.
- Cost and portfolio actions: Six converting plants are closing, cutting about 580 roles, and Group Services headcount is down 13%. Schumacher synergies have been raised to €32m, and Mondi sold one converting plant at the end of Sep 2026 and agreed the sale of a second.
- Investment-grade funding with no covenants: Mondi has investment-grade ratings, no financial covenants, a refinanced €1bn revolving credit facility and a weighted average debt maturity of 4.6 years.
Bear Case
- Sharp earnings decline: Underlying EPS fell from 195.6c in FY2022 to 56.5c in FY2025, and was 11.6c in H1 2026 against 42.7c a year earlier.
- Rising leverage: Net debt to underlying EBITDA rose to 3.2x at 30 Jun 2026 from 2.6x at the end of 2025, and Moody’s has Mondi on negative outlook.
- Dividend cuts: The FY2025 ordinary dividend of 28.25c was 60% below FY2024’s 70.0c, and the 2026 interim fell to 9.42c from 23.33c.
- Impairments on new capacity: H1 2026 included €296m of impairments, including €206m on the Duino containerboard mill in Italy, which had only recently been converted.
- Input cost pressure: Energy and Central European wood costs rose in Q3 2026. Year-to-date underlying EBITDA was €575m against €787m in the same period of 2025.
3. Business Segments
From 01 Oct 2025 Mondi reports two segments, after merging Uncoated Fine Paper into Corrugated Packaging and restating prior periods. Percentages use FY2025 external revenue against group revenue of €7,663m.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Flexible Packaging | 51.1% (€3,919m external) | Kraft paper, paper bags, and consumer flexible packaging such as pouches, films and coated products. FY2025 underlying EBITDA €583m. |
| Corrugated Packaging | 48.9% (€3,744m external) | Virgin and recycled containerboard, corrugated boxes (including the acquired Schumacher plants) and, since Oct 2025, uncoated fine paper. FY2025 underlying EBITDA €458m. |
The last standalone Uncoated Fine Paper figure was FY2024 segment revenue of €1,317m, about 17.8% of the group. Segment revenue including sales between segments was €3,941m for Flexible Packaging and €3,775m for Corrugated Packaging, with €53m eliminated.
4. Business Model & Moat
How it makes money. Mondi grows and buys wood, runs pulp and paper mills, and sells the paper either to outside customers or to its own converting plants, which turn it into boxes, bags and flexible packaging. Earnings depend on paper and packaging prices relative to wood, energy, recovered paper and chemical costs, so margins move with the paper cycle.
Integration and cost position. Mondi’s large mills, many in Central and Eastern Europe, are supplied with wood from its own forests and from local markets. Making its own paper and then converting it gives Mondi more control over supply and quality across the chain.
Trade-offs. The mills need heavy maintenance and expansion spending, and new capacity is exposed to the industry cycle. The €206m impairment on the converted Duino mill in H1 2026 shows that risk. Exposure to South Africa also brings currency and country risk.
5. Financial Health
Mondi reports in euros under IFRS for calendar years. Figures are continuing operations: FY2021 is restated in the FY2022 report to exclude the Russian operations, which were sold in 2023. GAAP EPS is basic EPS from continuing operations; Adjusted EPS is Mondi’s basic underlying EPS, which excludes special items. Long-term debt is medium and long-term borrowings at each year end.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (€m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | €6,974m | +15.9%† | 112.0c | 110.1c | 65.0c | €2,104m |
| FY2022 | €8,902m | +27.6% | 244.5c | 195.6c | 70.0c | €1,970m |
| FY2023 | €7,330m | −17.7% | 103.5c | 107.8c | 70.0c | €1,460m |
| FY2024 | €7,416m | +1.2% | 49.1c | 82.7c | 70.0c‡ | €1,952m |
| FY2025 | €7,663m | +3.3% | 37.4c | 56.5c | 28.25c | €2,538m |
† Mondi did not publish a continuing-operations revenue figure for FY2020, so FY2021 growth is the originally reported rate including Russia (€7,723m against €6,663m). FY2022 basic EPS includes the gain on selling Personal Care Components. ‡ A special dividend of 160.0c per share, returning the Russia sale proceeds, was paid on 13 Feb 2024 alongside a 10-for-11 share consolidation and is excluded here. EPS and dividends are in euro cents. Short-term borrowings were €124m, €102m, €559m, €63m and €344m for FY2021 to FY2025.
Mondi reports half-yearly, with trading updates in Q1 and Q3. Most recent first:
| Quarter / Half | Revenue (€m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 (Jan–Jun 2026) | 3,975 | 11.6c | (57.8)c |
| H2 2025 (Jul–Dec 2025) | 3,754 | 13.8c | (1.2)c |
| H1 2025 (Jan–Jun 2025) | 3,909 | 42.7c | 38.6c |
| FY2025 total | 7,663 | 56.5c | 37.4c |
The Q3 2026 trading update gave no revenue or EPS figures. It reported Q3 underlying EBITDA of €196m with no forestry fair value gain, against €167m in Q2 2026 (including a €43m forestry loss), €212m in Q1 2026 and €223m in Q3 2025.
Cash flow and balance sheet. In FY2025 cash generated from operations was €1,072m and net cash from operating activities €986m. Capital expenditure was €690m: property, plant and equipment €673m and intangibles €17m; a further €50m was invested in forestry assets. Depreciation, amortisation and impairments were €504m on an underlying basis and €563m including €59m of special items. Underlying operating profit was €497m and reported operating profit €391m. At 31 Dec 2025 cash was €292m, short-term borrowings €344m and medium and long-term borrowings €2,538m. In H1 2026 net cash from operating activities was €319m and capex €214m; at 30 Jun 2026 borrowings were €264m short-term and €2,529m medium and long-term, with cash of €157m.
2026 guidance. In Jul 2026 Mondi guided capex of about €500m, depreciation and amortisation of about €475m, about €80m of EBITDA impact from maintenance shuts, net finance costs of about €125m and an effective tax rate of about 25%. In Oct 2026 it said it expects no forestry fair value gain in Q4 if current energy and South African diesel prices persist.
6. Valuation
Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Underlying EBITDA | €1,001m for FY2025 at a 13.1% margin (€962m excluding forestry); H1 2026 €379m at 9.5%; Q3 2026 €196m |
| EBITDA (FY2025, statutory) | About €954m = reported operating profit €391m plus depreciation, amortisation and impairments €563m (wider total, including special items, from the FY2025 results) |
| Free cash flow | About €296m for FY2025: net cash from operating activities €986m less capex €690m (FY2025 cash flow statement); about €105m in H1 2026 (€319m less €214m) |
| Net debt | Borrowings €2,882m (€344m short-term plus €2,538m medium and long-term) less cash €292m = about €2,590m; Mondi reports €2,599m at 31 Dec 2025 (2.6x underlying EBITDA) and €2,632m at 30 Jun 2026 (3.2x) |
| Underlying EPS | 56.5c for FY2025 (FY2024: 82.7c); 11.6c for H1 2026 |
| Dividend per share | 28.25c for FY2025, covered 2.0 times by underlying earnings; 2026 interim 9.42c |
| Short interest (% of float) | FCA aggregated net short position of 7.11% of issued share capital at 27 Oct 2026 (FCA list; since 13 Jul 2026 holders are no longer named). US over-the-counter ADR line MONDY: 18,849 shares short, 0.01% of float, at 15 Oct 2026 (MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | 0.6 days for the thinly traded MONDY line (MarketBeat, 15 Oct 2026); not published for the London line |
7. What Are They Building
After several years of heavy investment, Mondi has moved from building capacity to cutting costs and running the new assets at full rate.
- New capacity ramp-up: About 300,000 tonnes of new output came on in 2026, from the new Steti sack kraft paper machine in Czechia, debottlenecking at Swiecie and Kuopio, the Duino recycled containerboard ramp-up and more e-commerce paper bag capacity in North America.
- Lower capital spending: 2026 capex guidance has been cut from €650m to €550m and then to about €500m, focused on maintenance and cost improvements.
- Converting footprint: Six converting plants are closing in 2026, two of them by mid-year, and Mondi sold one solid board converting plant at the end of Sep 2026 and agreed the sale of a second.
- Schumacher integration: The western European Schumacher Packaging plants, bought on 31 Mar 2025, are being integrated, with synergies now targeted at €32m over three years.
- Operational excellence: A new group-wide programme, Mondi Management Systems, aims to standardise mill and plant performance.
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8. Competitive Landscape
Mondi competes with integrated paper and packaging groups in Europe and with flexible packaging specialists worldwide. Metrics come from each company’s own FY2025 results release.
| Peer | Key latest fiscal-year metric |
|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock (SW) | FY2025 net sales $31,179m (FY2024: $21,109m), per its results of 11 Feb 2026 |
| International Paper (IP), including DS Smith | FY2025 net sales $23.63bn, per its results of 29 Jan 2026, which also announced a plan to split into two companies |
| Amcor (AMCR) | Fiscal 2025 (year to 30 Jun 2025) net sales $15,009m (FY2024: $13,640m), per its results of 14 Aug 2025 |
| Stora Enso | FY2025 sales €9,326m (FY2024: €9,049m), per its results of 04 Feb 2026 |
| Huhtamaki | FY2025 net sales €3,960.2m (FY2024: €4,126.3m), per its results of 13 Feb 2026 |
Mondi’s FY2025 revenue of €7,663m rose 3.3%, helped by acquisitions, while Huhtamaki’s sales fell and Stora Enso’s rose about 3%.
9. Leadership & Insider Activity
Andrew King is Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Mike Powell is Group Chief Financial Officer; no change to either role has been announced in 2026. Philip Yea has chaired the board since May 2020. Sue Clark, Senior Independent Director, joined the board of Hill & Smith on 02 Oct 2026. The dealings below were disclosed through RNS notifications in 2026. Apart from the incentive plans, the only open-market purchase found was by a person closely associated with a non-executive director.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew King (CEO), Mike Powell (CFO) | 07 Oct 2026 | Monthly purchase (partnership and matching shares) | 40 (King), 38 (Powell) | Share Incentive Plan |
| Marita Erler (Chief People Officer) | 24 Sep 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 5,281 exercised and sold | Long Term Incentive Plan |
| Cheryl Young (associate of non-executive director Stephen Young) | 27 Apr 2026 | Purchase | 5,000 | Market purchase |
| Thomas Ott (CEO, Flexible Packaging) | 23 Mar 2026 | Option exercise; shares sold for tax | 18,726 exercised; 10,300 sold | Bonus Share Plan |
| Andrew King (CEO) | 06 Mar 2026 | Award | 27,468 (BSP) and 284,575 (LTIP) | Bonus Share Plan / Long Term Incentive Plan |
| Mike Powell (CFO) | 06 Mar 2026 | Award | 17,436 (BSP) and 165,676 (LTIP) | Bonus Share Plan / Long Term Incentive Plan |
| Andrew King (CEO) | 26 Feb 2026 | Option exercise; shares sold | 73,197 exercised; 34,403 sold | Bonus Share Plan |
| Mike Powell (CFO) | 26 Feb 2026 | Option exercise; shares sold; transfer to spouse | 43,339 exercised; 20,370 sold; 22,969 transferred | Bonus Share Plan |
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10. Key Risks
- Leverage and credit rating (Financial): Net debt to underlying EBITDA reached 3.2x at 30 Jun 2026, and Moody’s Baa1 rating is on negative outlook. Further EBITDA weakness would push leverage higher and could lead to a downgrade.
- Selling price and margin volatility (Market): Mondi names this as a principal risk. Corrugated Solutions margins are still squeezed by competition and the lag in passing on paper price rises, and uncoated fine paper demand weakened seasonally in Q3 2026.
- Industry capacity (Strategic): New European containerboard capacity has weighed on prices, and the €206m Duino impairment shows the risk to newly built assets.
- Energy and raw material costs (Operational): Energy costs rose through Q3 2026 and Central and Eastern European wood costs increased. Mondi downgraded its raw material cost and availability risk in 2025.
- Country and currency exposure (Macro): Operations in South Africa and emerging Europe expose Mondi to currency moves, diesel prices and political risk, and it downgraded its country risk in 2025.
- Restructuring and integration (Operational): Plant closures, the Schumacher integration and the ramp-up of new capacity must be delivered without disrupting customers or adding cost.
11. Recent Developments
- 15 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 trading update. Underlying EBITDA was €196m against €223m a year earlier, as energy and wood costs rose and maintenance shuts weighed. Mondi announced further paper price increases, sold one solid board converting plant at the end of Sep and agreed the sale of a second.
- 13 Oct 2026 — Silchester raises its stake. Silchester International Investors notified a holding of 10.01%, up from 5.02%.
- 08 Oct 2026 — AGM voting update. Mondi published an update on two 2026 AGM resolutions, on disapplying pre-emption rights and on 14-day notice for general meetings, which passed with about 78% support. Most of the votes against came from holders on the South African register.
- 25 Sep 2026 — Interim dividend paid. The 2026 interim dividend of 9.42c per share was paid, equal to 8.09159p for UK holders.
- 09 Sep 2026 — Coronation reduces its holding. Coronation Fund Managers cut its holding to 4.784% from 9.001%.
- 26 Aug 2026 — PIC reduces its holding. South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation cut its holding to 8.963% from 9.811%.
- 30 Jul 2026 — H1 2026 results. Revenue was €3,975m and underlying EBITDA €379m, against €564m. Impairments of €296m, including €206m on Duino, produced a statutory operating loss of €178m. The interim dividend was cut to 9.42c and 2026 capex guidance lowered to about €500m.
Euro-area and UK data releases that affect packaging demand are on the Economic Calendar.
12. Key Dates
- 25 Feb 2027 — FY2026 full-year results (Mondi financial calendar, subject to change)
- 30 Apr 2027 — Q1 2027 trading update and 2027 Annual General Meeting
- Expected May 2027 — payment of any 2026 final dividend
- 29 Jul 2027 — H1 2027 half-year results
- 14 Oct 2027 — Q3 2027 trading update
The ex-dividend and record dates for any 2026 final dividend will be set with the full-year results.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.