Dow Inc. (DOW) — Company Research

Last Updated: 30 Oct 2026

Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) is one of the world’s largest commodity and specialty chemical makers. It sells polyethylene, industrial intermediates such as glycols and polyurethanes, and silicones and coatings, mostly from integrated ethylene crackers on the US Gulf Coast, in Canada and in Europe. FY2025 was a loss year: net sales fell 7.0% to $39.97bn, GAAP EPS was −$3.70 and operating EPS −$0.94, and the quarterly dividend was halved to $0.35. 2026 has brought a recovery. Q3 2026 net sales rose 13% to $11.27bn on higher prices, operating EPS was $0.71, and cash from operations reached $4.29bn for the first nine months. Karen S. Carter became CEO on 01 Jul 2026, and the Transform to Outperform cost programme is targeting about $700m of EBITDA uplift this year. Since the last version of this report (16 Jun 2026) Dow has reported Q2 and Q3 2026 results, S&P has moved its outlook to stable, and the CEO handover has taken place. All figures come from Dow’s earnings releases and SEC filings. There are no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / Exchange	DOW / NYSE
CEO / Leadership	Karen S. Carter, Chief Executive Officer since 01 Jul 2026 (previously COO); Jim Fitterling, Executive Chair (CEO 2018–2026); Jeffrey L. Tate, CFO
Sector	Materials — commodity and specialty chemicals, plastics, silicones and coatings
Employees	~34,600 full-time at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K)
Market cap	~$24.6bn ($34.01 at 26 Oct 2026 close × 723.88m shares per the Q3 2026 10-Q cover)
FY2025 Revenue	$39,968m net sales (−7.0%)
FY2025 earnings	GAAP diluted EPS −$3.70; operating EPS (non-GAAP) −$0.94
Q3 2026	Net sales $11,267m (+13%), GAAP EPS $0.62, operating EPS $0.71, operating EBITDA $1,553m
Dividend	$0.35 quarterly ($1.40 annualised), cut from $0.70 in Q3 2025; ~4.1% yield at $34.01
Credit ratings	S&P BBB− (stable), Moody’s Baa3 (negative), Fitch BBB (stable), per the Q3 2026 10-Q

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Earnings turning up: Operating EPS was $1.44 in Q2 2026 and $0.71 in Q3 2026, against −$0.42 and −$0.19 a year earlier. Q3 net sales rose 13%, with local prices up 14%.
• Self-help programme ahead of plan: Transform to Outperform is now targeting about $700m of operating EBITDA uplift in 2026, up from $500m at launch, and about $2bn in total by the end of 2027.
• Strong 2026 cash generation: Cash from operations was $4,287m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026, and free cash flow was $2,446m. Dow also received about CAD 1.8bn from NOVA Chemicals in Mar 2026 and has reduced debt by about $600m this year.
• Credit outlook stabilised: S&P moved its BBB− rating to a stable outlook on 30 Jul 2026, citing better expected earnings and credit metrics.
• Higher-margin growth projects: Silicones expansions in the US, China and Japan target electronics, AI and data-centre cooling, and management says many have a two-to-three-year payback.

Bear Case

• Loss-making 2025 and halved dividend: FY2025 GAAP EPS was −$3.70 and operating EPS −$0.94. The quarterly dividend was cut from $0.70 to $0.35 from Q3 2025.
• Long revenue decline: Net sales fell from $56.9bn in FY2022 to $40.0bn in FY2025, a compound decline of about 7.7% a year between FY2021 and FY2025.
• Ratings one notch above junk: S&P cut Dow to BBB− on 18 Feb 2026 and Moody’s to Baa3 on 27 Feb 2026, with Moody’s still on negative outlook. Total debt was ~$17.5bn at 30 Sep 2026.
• Path2Zero delayed: First start-up of the ~$7.5bn Alberta net-zero cracker has been pushed back to late 2029, about two years later than originally planned.
• Global oversupply and write-downs: Dow is closing three European upstream assets, and booked a $292m Sadara guarantee charge in Q1 2026. Its 10-K cites industry oversupply in Europe and Asia Pacific.

3. Business Segments

Dow reports three operating segments plus Corporate. Percentages use FY2025 net sales of $39,968m.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Packaging & Specialty Plastics	50.0% ($19,970m)	Ethylene and polyethylene from integrated crackers, used in food and consumer packaging, wire and cable, and infrastructure. FY2025 operating EBIT $827m.
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure	27.9% ($11,163m)	Ethylene oxide and glycols, propylene oxide, polyurethanes, chlor-alkali and vinyl, and construction chemicals. FY2025 operating EBIT −$561m.
Performance Materials & Coatings	20.4% ($8,134m)	Silicones, acrylics and coatings for consumer, mobility, electronics and architectural markets. FY2025 operating EBIT $306m.
Corporate	1.8% ($701m)	Non-business items, including insurance operations and licensing. FY2025 operating EBIT −$150m.

Q3 2026 segment net sales were Packaging & Specialty Plastics $5,778m (+18%), Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure $3,058m (+8%) and Performance Materials & Coatings $2,250m (+8%). Operating EBIT was $585m, $176m and $154m respectively.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Dow turns natural gas liquids and naphtha into ethylene and propylene, then into plastics, chemicals and silicones that it sells to packaging, construction, consumer, industrial and mobility customers. Profit depends mainly on the spread between product prices and feedstock and energy costs, so earnings swing with the chemical cycle.

Cost position. Its US Gulf Coast and Canadian crackers run largely on low-cost ethane, which gives them an advantage over naphtha-based plants in Europe and Asia when oil is expensive relative to gas. Dow is closing higher-cost European assets, including the Böhlen cracker and the Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl units, to improve its average cost position.

Scale and integration. Large integrated sites, a broad product range and joint ventures such as Sadara give Dow scale advantages in purchasing, logistics and technology. The trade-off is heavy fixed costs and capital needs, which hurt returns when industry capacity outruns demand, as in 2024–2025.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Dow’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Adjusted EPS is Dow’s non-GAAP operating EPS, which excludes significant items. Long-term debt is the non-current amount on the year-end balance sheet.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$54,968m	+42.6%	$8.38	$8.98	$2.80	$14,280m
FY2022	$56,902m	+3.5%	$6.28	$6.25	$2.80	$14,698m
FY2023	$44,622m	−21.6%	$0.82	$2.24	$2.80	$14,907m
FY2024	$42,964m	−3.7%	$1.57	$1.71	$2.80	$15,711m
FY2025	$39,968m	−7.0%	−$3.70	−$0.94	$2.10	$17,849m

FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 net sales of $38,542m. Dividends are declared per share as reported in SEC XBRL; FY2025 reflects the cut to $0.35 a quarter from Q3 2025. Long-term debt is from the SEC XBRL tag for long-term debt and finance leases due after one year.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 2026	$11,267m	$0.71	$0.62
Q2 2026	$12,092m	$1.44	$0.99
Q1 2026	$9,794m	−$0.14	−$0.74
Q4 2025	$9,460m	−$0.34	−$2.15
Q3 2025	$9,973m	−$0.19	$0.08
Q2 2025	$10,104m	−$0.42	−$1.18
Q1 2025	$10,431m	$0.02	−$0.44
FY2025 total	$39,968m	−$0.94	−$3.70

Q3 2026 significant items of −$0.09 a share mainly reflected Transform to Outperform costs and a $53m loss on early debt repurchases, partly offset by a $69m pre-tax gain linked to the NOVA Chemicals matter. Q1 2026 GAAP EPS included a $292m Sadara guarantee charge. Over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026, net sales were ~$42.6bn, GAAP EPS ~−$1.28 and operating EPS ~$1.67.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL data and Dow’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow (continuing operations): $1,062m in FY2025; $4,287m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026; ~$4,585m trailing twelve months.
• Capital expenditure: $2,479m in FY2025, giving free cash flow of −$1,417m; $1,841m in the nine months to 30 Sep 2026; ~$2,409m trailing twelve months, giving TTM free cash flow of ~$2,176m.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $2,834m in FY2025; ~$2,757m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Sep 2026: $16,778m of non-current long-term debt, $745m due within one year and $16m of notes payable, ~$17,539m in total.
• Cash at 30 Sep 2026: cash and equivalents $4,142m; no short-term marketable securities are reported. Management puts total liquidity at about $14bn, with no substantive debt maturities until 2029.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$24.6bn (price $34.01 at 26 Oct 2026 close × 723.88m shares)
Enterprise value	~$38.0bn (market cap ~$24.6bn + total debt ~$17.5bn − cash ~$4.1bn per 30 Sep 2026 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	n/m — TTM GAAP EPS is a loss of ~−$1.28 (Q4 2025–Q3 2026). On TTM operating EPS of ~$1.67 the multiple is ~20.4x
P/E (forward)	n/m — Dow does not give full-year EPS guidance, and ChartsView does not use analyst estimates
P/S (TTM)	~0.58x ($24.6bn / ~$42.6bn TTM net sales)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~11.9x (EV ~$38.0bn / TTM EBITDA ~$3.19bn; Dow does not report an operating income line, so EBITDA = pre-tax income ~−$0.43bn + interest expense ~$0.86bn + D&A ~$2.76bn from the cash flow statement). GAAP EBITDA is depressed by restructuring, Sadara and other significant items
P/FCF	~11.3x (market cap ~$24.6bn / TTM FCF ~$2.18bn; FCF = operating CF $4.59bn − capex $2.41bn, Q4 2025–Q3 2026). FY2025 FCF was negative (−$1.42bn), so the FY2025 multiple is n/m
Dividend yield	~4.1% ($1.40 annualised / $34.01)
52-week high	$42.74
52-week low	$20.93
Short interest (% of float)	~4.74% (34.09m shares at the 30 Sep 2026 settlement, down 3.8% from 15 Sep; MarketBeat)
Days to cover	~3.6 days

7. What Are They Building

Dow has cut growth spending sharply and is focusing on cost reduction, while keeping a smaller set of projects.

• Transform to Outperform: Launched on 29 Jan 2026, it targets at least $2bn of operating EBITDA uplift, about two-thirds from productivity and one-third from growth, with one-off costs of $1.1–1.5bn. About 4,500 roles are being cut, and about 70% of those reductions were complete by Q3 2026.
• Path2Zero, Alberta: The net-zero ethylene and derivatives project at Fort Saskatchewan was slowed in Apr 2025. Phase 1 is now planned to start up in late 2029 and Phase 2 by the end of 2030, with total capex of about $7.5bn. About 30% of project capex has been spent.
• Europe rationalisation: The Barry, UK siloxanes plant closed in Q2 2026. Shutdowns of the Böhlen cracker and Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl assets, announced in Jul 2025, were targeted for Q4 2027.
• Targeted growth: Projects include the Poly-7 polyethylene unit on the US Gulf Coast, alkoxylation capacity in the US and Europe, and silicones expansions aimed at electronics, data-centre cooling and mobility.
• Advanced nuclear: Dow and X-energy received an NRC Finding of No Significant Impact for their proposed Texas nuclear project on 18 May 2026.

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8. Competitive Landscape

Dow competes with integrated chemical and plastics producers in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Market caps are late-Oct 2026 values from MarketBeat stock pages (BASF from its US ADR at 09 Oct 2026). Metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

Peer	Market cap (Oct 2026)	Key 2025 metric
BASF (BASFY)	~$51.9bn	FY2025 sales €59.7bn, per BASF release of 27 Feb 2026
LyondellBasell (LYB)	~$21.8bn	FY2025 sales $30.15bn, per LyondellBasell release of 30 Jan 2026
DuPont (DD)	~$18.2bn	FY2025 net sales $6.85bn from continuing operations, per DuPont release of 10 Feb 2026
Westlake (WLK)	~$8.2bn	FY2025 net sales ~$11.17bn, per Westlake release of 24 Feb 2026
Eastman Chemical (EMN)	~$7.5bn	FY2025 sales $8.75bn, per Eastman release of 29 Jan 2026

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Karen S. Carter became Chief Executive Officer on 01 Jul 2026, succeeding Jim Fitterling, who became Executive Chair. Jeffrey L. Tate is CFO. New segment presidents took over Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure (Nestor de Mattos Cunha Neto, Form 3 filed 14 Aug 2026) and Performance Materials & Coatings (Charles Ross Zimmer Jr., Form 3 filed 23 Oct 2026). Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases or sales in 2026; the dispositions below are shares withheld to pay tax on vesting awards.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Jeffrey L. Tate (CFO)	26 Oct 2026	Tax withholding	25,564	$33.99	~$868,900	Not 10b5-1; shares withheld on vesting
Karen S. Carter (CEO)	01 Jul 2026	Award	150,790	$0	n/a	Equity award on appointment as CEO
Eleven non-employee directors	09 Apr 2026	Award	5,127 each	$0	n/a	Annual director equity grant
Amy Wilson (General Counsel)	26 Feb 2026	Tax withholding	3,718	$29.90	~$111,200	Shares withheld on vesting
Karen S. Carter (then COO)	26 Feb 2026	Tax withholding	2,969	$29.90	~$88,800	Not 10b5-1; shares withheld on vesting
Jim Fitterling (then Chair & CEO)	12 Feb 2026	Award	500,212	$0	n/a	Annual long-term incentive grant

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10. Key Risks

• Credit ratings (Financial): Dow is rated BBB− by S&P and Baa3 by Moody’s, the lowest investment-grade levels, and Moody’s outlook is negative. A further downgrade would raise funding costs, and the 10-K lists failure to keep an investment-grade rating as a risk.
• Industry oversupply (Market): New capacity in Asia and the Middle East has pressured polyethylene and intermediates margins. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure lost $561m at the operating EBIT level in FY2025.
• Project execution (Operational): Path2Zero has already been delayed by about two years. Cost growth or further delay on a ~$7.5bn project would weigh on returns and cash flow.
• Joint ventures and write-downs (Financial): Dow booked a $292m Sadara guarantee charge in Q1 2026 and has suspended recognising Sadara equity losses. European closures bring further restructuring costs.
• Litigation and legacy liabilities (Legal): Union Carbide asbestos liabilities were $708m at 31 Dec 2025, and Dow also carries pension obligations and environmental remediation exposure.
• Macro, trade and regulation (Macro): Tariffs, the Middle East conflict that hit Q3 2026 volumes in Asia Pacific, and rules on plastic waste and chemical safety can all reduce demand or raise costs.

11. Recent Developments

• 26 Oct 2026 — CFO shares withheld for tax. 25,564 of Jeffrey Tate’s shares were withheld at $33.99 to cover tax on vesting awards; he held 93,197 shares afterwards.
• 23 Oct 2026 — New Performance Materials & Coatings president. A Form 3 was filed for Charles Ross Zimmer Jr. as president of the segment.
• 22 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 13% to $11.27bn, GAAP EPS was $0.62 and operating EPS $0.71, up from −$0.19. Free cash flow was $1.13bn, and management guided Q4 EBITDA to about $1.5bn.
• 22 Oct 2026 — Cost programme progress. Dow raised its 2026 Transform to Outperform target to about $700m and said about 70% of the ~4,500 planned role reductions were done. About $300m of debt was repurchased in Q3, with about $200m more planned in Q4.
• 15 Oct 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a $0.35 quarterly dividend, payable 11 Dec 2026 to holders of record on 30 Nov 2026.
• 14 Aug 2026 — New Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure president. A Form 3 was filed for Nestor de Mattos Cunha Neto.
• 12 Aug 2026 — Dividend declared. A $0.35 dividend was declared, paid on 11 Sep 2026.
• 30 Jul 2026 — S&P outlook to stable. S&P affirmed Dow at BBB− and moved its outlook to stable from negative.
• 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $12.09bn, GAAP EPS $0.99 and operating EPS $1.44.
• 01 Jul 2026 — CEO handover. Karen S. Carter became CEO and Jim Fitterling became Executive Chair, as announced on 14 Apr 2026.

Macro data that move chemical stocks, such as manufacturing PMIs, are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 30 Nov 2026 — record date for the $0.35 quarterly dividend
• 11 Dec 2026 — payment of the $0.35 quarterly dividend
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (date not yet announced; FY2025 results were released on 29 Jan 2026)
• Expected Apr 2027 — 2027 annual stockholder meeting (the 2026 meeting was held on 09 Apr 2026)
• Expected Q4 2027 — target for the Böhlen cracker and Schkopau chlor-alkali and vinyl shutdowns, as announced in Jul 2025
• Expected late 2029 — Path2Zero Phase 1 start-up

Dow has not yet confirmed the Q4 2026 results date.

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