The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — Company Research

Last Updated: 9 November 2026

The Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) is one of the two largest US private auto insurers, selling car, motorcycle, RV, boat, home and commercial auto cover through independent agents and directly online and by phone. In 2025 total revenues rose 16.3% to $87,671m, net income was $11,308m and diluted EPS was $19.23, on a combined ratio of 87.4 (an underwriting margin of 12.6%). Q3 2026 results, released on 14 Oct 2026, showed net premiums written up 4% to $22,301m, net income down 3% to $2,542m and diluted EPS of $4.37, with the combined ratio improving to 88.7. Progressive paid a $13.50 annual variable dividend in Jan 2026 on top of its $0.10 quarterly dividend. Every figure here comes from Progressive's own releases and SEC filings.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	The Progressive Corporation
Ticker / Exchange	PGR / NYSE
Sector	Financials (property and casualty insurance)
CEO / Leadership	Tricia Griffith (President & CEO); Andrew Quigg (CFO since Jul 2026, succeeding John Sauerland)
Employees	70,053 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 annual report)
Headquarters	Mayfield Village, Ohio
Founded	1937
Fiscal year end	31 December
Revenue (FY2025)	$87,671m total revenues (+16.3%); trailing four quarters to 30 Sep 2026 $91,735m
Net income (FY2025)	$11,308m; diluted EPS $19.23
Market cap	~$132.0bn ($227.77 close on 06 Nov 2026 × 579.4m shares outstanding at 01 Oct 2026)
Policies in force	40.5m at 30 Sep 2026 (+6% year on year)
Dividend	$0.10 per quarter plus an annual variable dividend ($13.50 a share for 2025, paid 08 Jan 2026)

2. Investment Thesis: Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

• Underwriting profit at scale: Progressive's combined ratio was 87.4 in 2025 and 87.5 in the first nine months of 2026, well inside its long-standing target of 96, giving a 2025 pretax underwriting profit of $10,249m.
• Market share gains: On AM Best figures Progressive and State Farm were tied at about 18.6% of 2025 US private auto direct premiums, after Progressive's premiums grew 14.9%; S&P Global estimates it moved into first place on a trailing basis to 31 Mar 2026.
• Policy growth continues: Policies in force rose 6% to 40.5m in Q3 2026, with Direct auto up 8% and Agency auto up 7%.
• High returns and cash returns: Trailing return on average common equity was 34.4% at Sep 2026; the company paid a $13.50 variable dividend in Jan 2026 and bought back $1.6bn of shares in the first nine months of 2026.
• Large investment portfolio: The $99.2bn portfolio earned a 4.3% pretax book yield in Q3 2026, and investment income was $3,583m in 2025.

Bear Case

• Profit growth has stalled: Q3 2026 net income fell 3% and diluted EPS fell to $4.37 from $4.45, and July and August 2026 net income fell 12% and 22% year on year.
• Rate cuts and shopping: Personal auto rates were cut over the past year and were flat in Q3 2026, new personal vehicle applications fell 1%, and Direct auto policy life expectancy was down 10%.
• Commercial Lines softer: Commercial Lines net premiums written fell 3% in 2025 and its Q3 2026 combined ratio rose to 92.6 from 89.2.
• Reserve releases may fade: Results in 2026 include $1,536m of favourable prior-year reserve development in the first nine months, which may not repeat.

3. Business Segments

Progressive reports Personal Lines (split into Agency, Direct and Property) and Commercial Lines. Figures are FY2025 net premiums written from the FY2025 annual report.

Segment	% of net premiums written	What it is
Personal Lines — Direct	47.6% ($39,631m)	Auto and special lines (motorcycle, RV, boat) sold online, by app and by phone. FY2025 combined ratio 90.1.
Personal Lines — Agency	35.9% ($29,825m)	Auto and special lines sold through more than 40,000 independent agencies. FY2025 combined ratio 85.4.
Personal Lines — Property	3.7% ($3,102m)	Homeowners, renters, umbrella and flood insurance. FY2025 combined ratio 75.1.
Commercial Lines	12.8% ($10,613m)	Commercial auto, business owners and general liability, and transportation network company cover; the largest US commercial auto writer since 2015. FY2025 combined ratio 87.0.

Total FY2025 net premiums written were $83,174m. Total revenues of $87,671m also include investment income and realised and unrealised gains on securities.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Progressive earns an underwriting profit when premiums exceed claims and expenses (a combined ratio below 100), and investment income on the premiums it holds before claims are paid. In 2025 the underwriting margin was 12.6%, or $10,249m pretax, and investment income was $3,583m.

Pricing and data. The company rolls out new rating models frequently; its latest personal auto models covered states with 85% of personal auto premiums (outside California) at Q3 2026. Snapshot, its usage-based telematics programme, is offered in every state except California, and about half of direct new-business customers chose it in Q3 2026.

Distribution and brand. Direct sales were 57% of personal vehicle premiums in 2025, backed by heavy advertising ($1.6bn in Q3 2026 alone, up 18%), while the agency channel and the Platinum agent bundling programme (nearly 6,000 agents) give reach through independent agents.

Where the moat is tested. Auto insurance is a commodity product and customers shop on price; rivals such as State Farm, GEICO and Allstate also use telematics and big advertising budgets, and regulators control the pace of rate changes.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from Progressive's annual reports and 10-K filings, cross-checked against SEC XBRL data. Revenue is total revenues. Long-term debt is the year-end carrying value of debt; Progressive had no current portion of debt at any year end shown.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	$47,702m	+11.8%	$5.66	$5.66†	$1.90	$4,899m
FY2022	$49,611m	+4.0%	$1.18	$1.18†	$0.40	$6,388m
FY2023	$62,109m	+25.2%	$6.58	$6.58†	$1.15	$6,889m
FY2024	$75,372m	+21.4%	$14.40	$14.40†	$4.90	$6,893m
FY2025	$87,671m	+16.3%	$19.23	$19.23†	$13.90	$6,897m

† Progressive does not report an adjusted or operating EPS figure, so GAAP diluted EPS is repeated. Dividends are declared per share in each year: $0.40 of regular quarterly dividends plus annual variable dividends of $1.50 (2021), none (2022), $0.75 (2023), $4.50 (2024) and $13.50 (2025). FY2021 growth is against FY2020 total revenues of $42,658m. Combined ratios were 95.3 (2021), 95.8 (2022), 94.9 (2023), 88.8 (2024) and 87.4 (2025).

Quarterly results, most recent first.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q3 2026 (to 30 Sep 2026)	$23,192m	$4.37†	$4.37
Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$23,609m	$5.67†	$5.67
Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026)	$22,188m	$4.80†	$4.80
Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025)	$22,746m	$5.02†	$5.02
Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)	$22,512m	$4.45†	$4.45
Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$22,004m	$5.40†	$5.40
Q1 2025 (to 31 Mar 2025)	$20,409m	$4.37†	$4.37
FY2025 total	$87,671m	$19.23†	$19.23

Q4 2025 revenue is FY2025 total revenues less the nine-month figure of $64,925m. In the first nine months of 2026 total revenues were $68,989m, net income $8,671m and diluted EPS $14.83.

Cash flow and balance sheet. Operating cash flow was $17,548m in 2025 and $12,492m in the first nine months of 2026; purchases of property and equipment were $348m and $317m. Depreciation was $313m in 2025. At 30 Sep 2026 debt was $8,389m after a $1.5bn senior notes issue in March 2026, debt-to-total-capital was 19.6% (policy limit 30%), shareholders' equity was $34,485m and book value per share was $59.51. Cash was $141m and short-term investments $2,125m, within an investment portfolio of $99.2bn that carried a net unrealised pretax loss on fixed maturities of $3,455m. Follow the shares on ChartsView Live Charts.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, November 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$132.0bn ($227.77 close on 06 Nov 2026 × 579.4m shares outstanding)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~11.5x ($227.77 / GAAP diluted EPS of $19.86 over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026). Progressive reports no adjusted EPS.
P/E (forward)	n/a — Progressive does not give EPS guidance, and ChartsView does not use analyst estimates
P/S (TTM)	~1.4x (~$132.0bn / total revenues of $91,735m over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026)
Price/book	~3.8x ($227.77 / book value per share of $59.51 at 30 Sep 2026)
Enterprise value	~$138.1bn (market cap ~$132.0bn + debt $8,389m − cash $141m and short-term investments $2,125m, per 30 Sep 2026 balance sheet). The rest of the $99.2bn portfolio backs policyholder liabilities and is not deducted.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	n/m — for an insurer, claims and investment income are the core business, so EBITDA is not meaningful; see Price/book instead
P/FCF	~8.7x (market cap ~$132.0bn / FCF ~$15.2bn; FCF = operating cash flow $15,662m − capex $438m over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026). An insurer's operating cash flow includes premiums held before claims are paid, so this flatters the multiple.
Dividend yield	~0.2% on the $0.40 regular annual dividend; ~6.1% including the $13.50 variable dividend declared in Dec 2025 ($13.90 declared over the four quarters to 30 Sep 2026)
52-week high	$241.02 (05 Nov 2026, intraday)
52-week low	$189.02 (29 May 2026, intraday)
Short interest (% of float)	~1.18% (6.81m shares at settlement 30 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)
Days to cover	~1.9 (30 Sep 2026, MarketBeat)

7. What Are They Building

New auto pricing models. Personal auto product model 9.0, which adds an embedded renters endorsement, more outside data and new rating variables, began rolling out in Q3 2025 and covered 10 states (about 25% of personal auto premiums) by the end of 2025. The first state for model 9.1 is expected in early 2027.

Reshaping the property book. Progressive is cutting homeowners exposure in volatile weather markets (policies in force down 16% there in Q3 2026) while growing where it can hit its targets; homeowners new applications rose 22% in Q3 2026. Next-generation property models cover 39 states and close to 90% of property premiums.

Commercial Lines. Commercial auto model 8.3 was live in 11 states by the end of 2025, a new business owners policy model in 34 states and the Cargo Plus endorsement in 49 states. Growth is being steered towards business auto and contractors while for-hire transportation shrinks; the Smart Haul and Snapshot ProView telematics programmes support pricing.

Bundling and agents. HomeQuote Explorer and the Platinum agent programme aim to sell auto and home together, to win and keep the more profitable bundled customers.

Capital. Progressive issued $1.5bn of senior notes (4.60% due 2031 and 5.15% due 2036) in March 2026, renewed its 25m-share buyback authorisation on 08 May 2026 and published its catastrophe reinsurance programme on 10 Aug 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Peer	Market cap (November 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Chubb (CB)	~$139.5bn ($365.02 close on 06 Nov 2026 × 382.1m shares)	FY2025 total revenues $59,402m (SEC XBRL, FY2025 10-K)
Travelers (TRV)	~$81.0bn ($395.20 close on 06 Nov 2026 × 204.9m shares)	FY2025 total revenues $48,828m (SEC XBRL, FY2025 10-K)
Allstate (ALL)	~$63.1bn ($254.81 close on 06 Nov 2026 × 247.4m shares)	FY2025 total revenues $67,685m (SEC XBRL, FY2025 10-K); about 10.2% of US private auto premiums (CarInsurance.com)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) — GEICO	~$1.22tn for all of Berkshire ($570.89 B-share close on 06 Nov 2026)	GEICO 2025 premiums written $45,193m, combined ratio 84.7% (Berkshire FY2025 10-K); about 11.6% of US private auto premiums (AM Best)
State Farm (private mutual)	Not listed	2025 US private auto direct premiums written $69.16bn, about 18.6% share, tied with Progressive's $69.01bn (AM Best)

The US private auto market was about $371.6bn of direct premiums written in 2025 (+3.4%), so Progressive's 14.9% premium growth was more than four times the market's. Discuss the sector on the ChartsView Forum.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Tricia Griffith is President and CEO and hosted the Q3 2026 call on 03 Nov 2026. Andrew Quigg became CFO in Jul 2026 when John Sauerland retired, and Lori Niederst was named Chief Personal Lines Officer from Jul 2026. SEC Form 4 filings show no open-market purchases by insiders in 2026; all open-market transactions were sales, most under Rule 10b5-1 plans. The largest are below.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Steven Broz (CIO, IT)	22 Oct 2026	Sell	1,225	$223.32	~$0.27m	10b5-1
Tricia Griffith (CEO, shares in spouse's trust)	01 Sep 2026	Sell	37,338	$219.50	~$8.20m	10b5-1
Lori Niederst (Chief Personal Lines Officer)	13 Aug 2026	Sell	7,339	$209.29	~$1.54m	10b5-1
Andrew Quigg (CFO)	28 Jul 2026	Sell	3,499	$220.00	~$0.77m	10b5-1
Tricia Griffith (CEO, shares in spouse's trust)	27 Jul 2026	Sell	37,338	$212.71	~$7.94m	10b5-1
Karen Bailo (Commercial Lines President)	27 Jul 2026	Sell	8,452	$212.71	~$1.80m	10b5-1
John Murphy (Claims President)	27 Jul 2026	Sell	8,124	$212.70	~$1.73m	10b5-1
Jeffrey Kelly (Director)	24 Jun 2026	Sell	7,000	$216.33	~$1.51m	Not 10b5-1
John Murphy (Claims President)	05 Jun 2026	Sell	5,916	$200.00	~$1.18m	10b5-1

Other 2026 filings were routine restricted stock unit and performance share awards and vestings, tax withholding, director awards and gifts.

10. Key Risks

• Claim costs (Operational): Auto claim frequency and severity depend on repair and parts costs, tariffs, used-car prices, medical costs and litigation; the Q3 2026 loss and loss adjustment expense ratio rose 3.7 points.
• Price competition (Competitive): With personal auto rates cut over the past year and flat in Q3 2026, rivals cutting prices could slow new business and shorten policy life, which was already down 10% for Direct auto.
• Catastrophes and weather (Operational): Hurricanes, hail, wildfire and other storms hit the property book and special lines; the reinsurance programme retains the first $200m of an event outside Florida and $75m in Florida.
• Rate regulation (Regulatory): State regulators approve rate changes and can limit rating factors; Florida's statutory profit cap led to a $1,224m policyholder credit expense in 2025.
• Investment and interest rates (Financial): The fixed-income portfolio carried a net unrealised pretax loss of $3,455m at 30 Sep 2026, and Q3 2026 included $170m of net realised losses on securities.
• Reserve development (Financial): 2026 profits include $1,536m of favourable prior-year development in nine months; if reserves prove too low, especially in commercial auto injury claims, earnings would fall.
• Class actions (Legal): Certified class actions over total-loss valuation adjustments in several states, and other putative class actions, are pending.
• Variable dividend (Financial): The annual variable dividend is at the board's discretion and has swung from nothing for 2022 to $13.50 a share for 2025.

11. Recent Developments

• 03 Nov 2026 — Q3 conference call. CEO Tricia Griffith and CFO Andrew Quigg discussed Q3 results; the 10-Q filed on 02 Nov 2026 showed Q3 advertising spend up 18% to $1.6bn and policies in force up 6% to 40.5m.
• 18 Oct 2026 — New Personal Lines President. A Form 3 filing shows James C. Curtis became an executive officer as Personal Lines President, following the Jun 2026 announcement that Pat Callahan would retire.
• 14 Oct 2026 — Q3 and September results. Q3 net premiums written rose 4% to $22,301m and net income fell 3% to $2,542m ($4.37 a share), with a combined ratio of 88.7 against 89.5. September net income was $630m, up from $305m when September 2025 carried a Florida policyholder credit.
• 18 Sep 2026 — August results. Net premiums written rose 6% to $7,605m but net income fell 22% to $951m as the combined ratio rose to 89.3 from 83.1.
• 19 Aug 2026 — July results. Net premiums written rose 5% to $7,441m and net income fell 12% to $961m, on a combined ratio of 86.8 against 85.3.
• 07 Aug 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a $0.10 quarterly dividend, paid on 09 Oct 2026 to holders of record on 01 Oct 2026.

Progressive's investment income and bond values are sensitive to interest rates, so Federal Reserve decisions and inflation data on the ChartsView Economic Calendar are worth watching.

12. Key Dates

• 18 Nov 2026 — October 2026 monthly results, before the market opens.
• Expected Dec 2026 — November results and declaration of the next quarterly and any annual variable dividend (last year declared on 05 Dec 2025; date not yet confirmed).
• Expected Jan 2027 — Payment of any 2026 annual variable dividend (the 2025 one was paid on 08 Jan 2026).
• Expected Jan 2027 — December and Q4 2026 results (Q4 2025 results were released on 28 Jan 2026; date not yet confirmed).
• Expected May 2027 — Annual shareholder meeting (the 2026 meeting was held on 08 May 2026).

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