Finance & Banking

Last Updated: 1 August 2026

S&P Global Inc. sells the plumbing of the capital markets: credit ratings that debt issuers cannot easily do without, the index franchise behind the S&P 500, benchmark commodity price assessments, and the financial data and analytics that sit inside institutional workflows. Roughly three-quarters of its revenue is recurring. On 1 July 2026 it completed the spin-off of its Mobility division as Mobility Global Inc. (NYSE: MBGL), leaving four divisions and a materially different set of comparatives. Two consecutive quarters of adjusted earnings arriving below market expectations have taken the shares from a 52-week high of $547.82 to $411.93, even as the company raised its 2026 buyback target above $7 billion. This report sets out the reported figures from S&P Global's own filings, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• A licensed oligopoly in ratings: S&P Global Ratings is registered with the SEC as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization, a regime dating to 1975 and now formalised under the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act. Ratings generated $4,724m of FY2025 recast revenue at a 65% adjusted margin and contributes 43% of adjusted operating profit on 34% of revenue.
• The index franchise is a compounding annuity: ETF assets linked to S&P Dow Jones Indices reached $6,350bn at 30 June 2026, up 34% year on year, comprising $1,010bn of price appreciation and $605bn of net inflows. In June 2026 a single S&P 500 tracker passed $1 trillion in assets for the first time in history. The division runs a 70% adjusted operating margin and has a 10–12% medium-term organic growth target.
• Three-quarters of revenue is recurring: subscription revenue of $7,865m (51%), non-transaction ratings revenue of $2,054m (13%), asset-linked fees of $1,206m (8%) and recurring variable of $623m (4%) leave only about 21% genuinely episodic. No single customer accounts for more than 10% of consolidated revenue.
• Portfolio surgery is complete and capital return is stepping up: Mobility spun off 1 July 2026, OSTTRA sold to KKR at a $3.1bn enterprise value in October 2025, With Intelligence acquired for $1.8bn in November 2025. The 2026 buyback target was raised on 28 July 2026 to more than $7 billion, over 5% of the market capitalisation, on top of $5,001m repurchased in FY2025.
• AI is showing up as revenue, not just narrative: Kensho LLM-Ready API customers passed 500 active and trialling in Q2 2026, up more than 70% quarter on quarter, with API call volume 5.4 times Q1 2026. Annualised contract value growth among Market Intelligence AI clients ran 1.6 times that of non-AI clients, and 3.0 times in Energy.

Bear Case

• The cyclical line is the profitable one: approximately 21% of FY2025 revenue, or $3,144m, is transaction revenue geared directly to gross debt issuance, and it sits inside the highest-margin division. The 2022 precedent is instructive: on a like-for-like pro forma basis adjusted revenue fell 4% and adjusted EPS fell 4% when issuance dried up, even with the IHS Markit assets in the base.
• Market Intelligence is the weak link and is being restructured mid-flight: 34% of revenue but only 22% of adjusted operating profit, on a 33% adjusted margin against 65–70% at Ratings and Indices, growing around 6% against Indices at 20%. Its President departed on 30 July 2026 as the division was being split into two new verticals.
• The company itself flags AI disintermediation: its own Q2 2026 slides list "some customers looking to build in-house solutions with S&P Global data in lieu of reliance on third party platforms" and customers "increasingly focused on their token expense". The read-across from FactSet, down to a $9.36bn market cap with 16.25% of float sold short, shows how fast the market re-rates data vendors it thinks AI can bypass.
• Reported earnings are flattered and heavily intangible-backed: trailing twelve-month GAAP EPS of $16.42 includes roughly $456m of pre-tax disposal gains ($270m in Q4 2025, $172m in Q1 2026, $11m in Q2 2026). Goodwill and other intangibles stood at $52,043m at 30 June 2026 against total equity of $31,616m, with deal-related amortisation guided at approximately $785m for FY2026.
• Separation execution and accounting are not finished: stranded Mobility costs are allocated at division level, offset only partly by a transition services agreement worth $13m in the first half of 2026, and the company states its discontinued-operations estimates "are preliminary and could change" as it finalises the accounting in the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q. Tax-free qualification of the spin is itself a named risk factor.

3. Business Segments

Following the Mobility separation on 1 July 2026, S&P Global reports four divisions. Percentages are of FY2025 revenue recast onto the post-separation structure, published on 6 July 2026.

Divested for context: Mobility, spun off on 1 July 2026 as Mobility Global Inc. (NYSE: MBGL), had FY2025 revenue of $1,747m and operating profit of $378m. It qualifies as discontinued operations for the full year 2026, but Q2 2026 GAAP results still consolidate it in full.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. FY2025 revenue of $15,336m breaks down by type as subscription $7,865m (51%), non-subscription and transaction $3,144m (21%, essentially ratings fees on newly issued debt), non-transaction $2,054m (13%, surveillance fees, annual relationship programmes and Crisil research), asset-linked fees $1,206m (8%, index licence fees on ETF and fund assets), recurring variable $623m (4%) and sales usage-based royalties $444m (3%). Roughly 76% of the total is recurring or recurring variable. Within Ratings, the FY2025 split was $2,470m transaction and $2,254m non-transaction; in Q2 2026 transaction revenue grew 25% year on year against 8% for non-transaction.

What protects it. Three separable moats. The first is regulatory: NRSRO registration is a licensed barrier, and issuers of large debt programmes generally need two ratings, which in practice means S&P and Moody's. The second is the index franchise, where S&P Dow Jones Indices is the number one global provider by ETF-linked assets and ranked first in flow capture in Q2 2026 — index licences are priced off assets under management, so the revenue compounds with market levels and passive flows without incremental cost. The third is data network effects: ratings content feeds RatingsXpress and RatingsDirect inside Market Intelligence at a $200m internal transfer price, Platts assessments are written directly into physical commodity contracts, and Kensho APIs are being embedded in customer AI workflows.

Profitability and diversification. FY2025 GAAP operating margin was 42.2% and adjusted operating margin 50.4%; Q2 2026 GAAP margin was 47.8% with a pro forma adjusted margin of 54.3%. Revenue splits 61% United States and 39% international, with no foreign country representing more than 7% of consolidated revenue, and no single customer above 10%.

5. Financial Health

All figures are from S&P Global's own earnings releases, SEC filings and XBRL data. The fiscal year ends 31 December. Revenue and EPS are shown as originally reported, including Mobility.

† FY2022 contains a major discontinuity. The IHS Markit merger completed on 28 February 2022, so GAAP figures include IHS Markit for only ten months and the diluted share count jumped from 241.8 million to 318.5 million as stock was issued to fund it. On the company's own non-GAAP pro forma basis, as if the merger had closed on 1 January 2021, FY2022 adjusted revenue actually declined 4% and the $11.19 adjusted EPS was down 4%. There is no directly comparable as-reported adjusted EPS for FY2022. Long-term debt is the non-current balance sheet line item of that name; FY2025 total debt was $13,088m of which $718m was short-term including current maturities.

Recast note: on 6 July 2026 S&P Global filed pro forma statements reclassifying Mobility as discontinued operations for FY2023 to FY2025. On that basis FY2023 revenue was $11,013m and GAAP EPS $7.43; FY2024 revenue $12,599m and GAAP EPS $11.44; FY2025 revenue $13,589m, GAAP EPS $13.74 and adjusted EPS $15.85. FY2021 and FY2022 were not recast. The table above therefore uses the as-reported basis throughout for internal consistency.

‡ The Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.83 is presented by the company on a pro forma non-GAAP basis excluding Mobility; pro forma revenue for the quarter was $3,678m and pro forma GAAP diluted EPS $4.08. GAAP revenue and GAAP EPS in the table remain on the as-reported basis, which still consolidates Mobility.

Cash flow and balance sheet detail: FY2025 net cash provided by operating activities was $5,651m against capital expenditure of $195m, with depreciation of $110m plus amortisation of intangibles of $1,069m, and GAAP operating profit of $6,478m. Company-defined free cash flow was $5,135m and adjusted free cash flow $5,481m; $6.2bn was returned to shareholders in 2025, equal to 113% of adjusted free cash flow. At 30 June 2026 long-term debt was $12,598m, short-term debt $2,572m, cash and equivalents including restricted cash $4,141m, total assets $62,906m, total equity $31,616m and redeemable non-controlling interests $5,024m. Management's FY2026 guidance issued on 28 July 2026, which excludes Mobility, is organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6.0% to 8.0%, GAAP diluted EPS of $16.35 to $16.60, adjusted diluted EPS of $17.50 to $17.75, capital expenditure of $190m to $210m and a tax rate of 22% to 23%.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Price action and technical levels for SPGI and its peers can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

A narrower, higher-margin company. The Mobility separation, announced 29 April 2025 and completed 1 July 2026, removed the lowest-multiple and most industrially exposed asset — $1,747m of FY2025 revenue at $378m of operating profit. Pro forma FY2025 adjusted operating margin excluding Mobility was 51.3% against 50.4% as reported, and 2026 guidance targets 35 to 60 basis points of further adjusted margin expansion, or 75 to 100 basis points excluding the drag from the OSTTRA disposal.

Kensho and agentic AI, the biggest strategic push. From Q3 2026 Market Intelligence is reorganised into Kensho Data and Platforms, with trailing revenue of $3.0bn at 30 June 2026, and Enterprise Solutions at $1.9bn — a change announced on 6 July 2026 explicitly to accelerate agentic solutions. The hard metrics disclosed for Q2 2026 are 500-plus active and trialling LLM-Ready API customers, up more than 70% quarter on quarter, API call volume at 5.4 times Q1 2026 levels, and annualised contract value growth among AI clients running 1.6 times non-AI clients in Market Intelligence and 3.0 times in Energy. Adaptive Retrieval, launched 21 July 2026, lets customer AI agents assemble licensed S&P Global data through natural-language queries.

Private markets data. The $1.8bn acquisition of With Intelligence completed on 25 November 2025, expected to add roughly $130m of revenue with high-teens organic contract value growth. Its datasets were integrated into S&P Capital IQ Pro in July 2026. Private Market Solutions revenue was $169m in Q4 2025, up 16% year on year.

Index expansion. ETF assets linked to S&P Dow Jones Indices reached $6,350bn at 30 June 2026. The 2026 plan assumes low-teens equity market appreciation and low-teens exchange-traded derivative volume growth; average daily derivative volumes rose 19% and related revenue 22% in Q2 2026. The Investor Day medium-term target for Indices is 10 to 12% organic constant-currency growth, the fastest of the four divisions.

New products and cost. The Vitality Index, measuring revenue from new or enhanced products, ran at 12% in Q4 2025 on $470m of Vitality revenue, against a stated floor of 10%. Approximately 60% of a $100m cost savings programme targeted for 2027 had been achieved as at Q2 2026. Group medium-term targets set at the 13 November 2025 Investor Day are 7 to 9% organic constant-currency revenue growth, 50 to 75 basis points of annual adjusted margin expansion, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, and a capital return framework of approximately 85% of adjusted free cash flow.

8. Peer Comparison

At $121.44bn S&P Global is larger than Moody's, MSCI and FactSet combined. In ratings specifically, S&P Global Ratings' FY2025 revenue of $4,724m compares with Moody's Investors Service at approximately $4.1bn, making S&P the larger of the two NRSRO duopolists.

9. Insider Activity

President and Chief Executive Officer Martina Cheung bought S&P Global stock in the open market on 29 April 2026, and she was not alone. The notable feature of calendar 2026 is a cluster of unplanned open-market purchases by four separate insiders — the CEO, two directors and the CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices — totalling approximately $2.6 million between 11 February and 1 May 2026, immediately after the shares fell roughly 20% on the 10 February 2026 fourth-quarter print. Against that, there were no discretionary open-market sales by any insider during 2026; every disposition recorded was a code "F" withholding of shares to settle tax on vesting equity. None of the Form 4 filings examined carried a Rule 10b5-1 plan designation.

10. Key Risks

• Debt issuance cyclicality: approximately 21% of FY2025 revenue, or $3,144m, is transaction revenue levered directly to gross debt issuance, and it sits inside Ratings, which contributes 43% of adjusted operating profit on 34% of revenue. The 2026 plan assumes only low to mid single-digit billed issuance growth off a $4,327bn 2025 base, and management credits 2025's strength to credit spreads finishing the year below historical averages. Spread widening reverses this quickly.
• AI disintermediation of the data business: the company's own Q2 2026 slides name "some customers looking to build in-house solutions with S&P Global data in lieu of reliance on third party platforms" and customers "increasingly focused on their token expense, with higher expectations for ROI on AI investments". Market Intelligence, the most exposed division, grows around 6% on a 33% adjusted margin.
• Separation execution and stranded costs: stranded Mobility costs are allocated at division level, offset only partially by transition services agreement income of $6m in Q2 2026 and $13m in the first half. The company states that its discontinued-operations estimates are preliminary and could change as the accounting is finalised in the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q and the annual report, and it lists loss of synergies from separating the businesses among its forward-looking risks.
• Tax-free spin qualification: a named risk factor is the ability of the Mobility separation to qualify for tax-free treatment for US federal income tax purposes. Retrospective disqualification would carry a material tax cost.
• Regulatory and litigation exposure: Ratings operates under SEC NRSRO registration, the Dodd-Frank Act, the Exchange Act and an EU and UK regime the Form 10-K describes as continuously evolving. The filing states the company and its subsidiaries "are defendants in numerous legal proceedings and are often the subject of government and regulatory proceedings, investigations and inquiries", many relating to Ratings, Indices and Energy. Ratings incurred $42m of legal costs in FY2025.
• Leadership churn at a critical moment: three senior departures inside twelve weeks. Saugata Saha, President of Market Intelligence and Chief Enterprise Data Officer, notified departure on 19 May 2026 effective 30 July 2026; Steven Kemps, EVP and Chief Legal Officer, notified retirement on 1 July 2026 effective 31 December 2026; and Mark Eramo, Co-President of Commodity Insights, retired in October 2025. This coincides with the restructuring of Market Intelligence into two new verticals.
• Earnings quality and goodwill: goodwill and other intangibles net stood at $52,043m at 30 June 2026 against total assets of $62,906m and total equity of $31,616m, a direct legacy of the IHS Markit merger. Deal-related amortisation is guided at approximately $785m for FY2026, and trailing GAAP earnings have been flattered by roughly $456m of disposal gains across the last three quarters.
• Competition and vendor budget consolidation: Market Intelligence's own disclosed headwinds include vendor consolidation and optimisation of customer budgets, multiple mature platforms, and select sub-scale products. Moody's Analytics is growing at around 9% against Market Intelligence at 6 to 7%, while LSEG, MSCI and privately held Bloomberg all compete directly.
• Sanctions and geopolitical exposure: Energy revenue was explicitly hurt in FY2025 by a negative impact related to government sanctions on select customers, and the company files a quarterly Iran Notice with the SEC, most recently on 28 July 2026.

11. Recent Developments

• 10 Oct 2025 — OSTTRA sale to KKR completes. S&P Global and CME Group completed the sale of their 50/50 post-trade joint venture at a $3.1bn total enterprise value, split evenly. The loss of OSTTRA equity income is why 2026 guidance carries a separate margin line excluding OSTTRA.
• 13 Nov 2025 — Investor Day and a new 30 million share buyback authorisation. New medium-term targets of 7 to 9% organic constant-currency revenue growth, 50 to 75 basis points of annual adjusted margin expansion and double-digit adjusted EPS growth, all excluding Mobility. Commodity Insights was renamed S&P Global Energy, and the Board authorised a new repurchase programme on top of a $2.5bn accelerated share repurchase launched in Q4 2025.
• 25 Nov 2025 — With Intelligence acquired for $1.8bn. Bought from a group led by Motive Partners, expected to contribute approximately $130m of revenue with high-teens organic contract value growth, establishing a position in private-markets data and analytics.
• 14 Jan 2026 — Dividend raised 1.0% to $0.97 per quarter. The 53rd consecutive annual increase. S&P Global has paid a dividend every year since 1937 and is one of fewer than thirty S&P 500 companies with more than fifty consecutive years of increases.
• 10 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results, and the shares fall hard. Full-year revenue of $15,336m (+8%), GAAP diluted EPS of $14.66 (+19%) and adjusted diluted EPS of $17.83 (+14%), with $6.2bn returned to shareholders, equal to 113% of adjusted free cash flow. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.30 came in short of market expectations and the stock hit a 52-week low of $361.03 on 12 February. Directors and executives then bought stock in the open market.
• 24 Apr 2026 — Agreement to divest the Energy geoscience and petroleum-engineering software portfolio. Part of the Upstream software business, expected to close in the second half of 2026 or early 2027, carried as $120m of assets held for sale at 30 June 2026.
• 21 May 2026 — Board approves the Mobility separation. Record date 15 June 2026, distribution effective at 12:01am New York time on 1 July 2026, one Mobility Global share for every S&P Global share held.
• 01 Jul 2026 — Mobility separation completes. Mobility Global Inc. began regular-way trading on the NYSE under the ticker MBGL. Cheung described it as reflecting "the extraordinary work and dedication of the S&P Global and Mobility Global teams over the past 15 months".
• 06 Jul 2026 — Recast financials and a new Market Intelligence operating model. Pro forma statements published for FY2023 to FY2025 and for 2025 quarters plus Q1 2026; Market Intelligence reorganised into Kensho Data and Platforms and Enterprise Solutions to accelerate agentic solutions; and the retirement of the Chief Legal Officer effective 31 December 2026 disclosed.
• 28 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results, first GAAP guidance, and a larger buyback. Revenue of $4,146m (+10%), GAAP diluted EPS of $4.12 (+18%) and pro forma adjusted diluted EPS of $4.83 (+23%), though adjusted EPS again arrived below market expectations and the shares fell around 5% intraday. First-ever GAAP EPS guidance of $16.35 to $16.60 was issued alongside adjusted guidance of $17.50 to $17.75, and the 2026 buyback target was lifted to more than $7bn. Agreements were announced to acquire datacenterHawk and a majority stake in Nigerian rating agency Agusto & Co.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 26 Aug 2026 — ex-dividend and record date for the third-quarter dividend of $0.97 per share, declared 22 June 2026.
• 28 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 conference call replay availability ends.
• 10 Sep 2026 — payment date for the $0.97 third-quarter dividend.
• Expected Sep 2026 — Board declaration of the fourth-quarter 2026 dividend. The third-quarter dividend was declared on 22 June 2026.
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings release. No date had been published as at 1 August 2026; Q3 2025 was reported on 30 October 2025 and Q3 2024 on 24 October 2024. This will be the first quarter reported entirely without Mobility on either a GAAP or an adjusted basis, and the quarter in which discontinued-operations accounting is finalised.
• Expected H2 2026 — completion of the datacenterHawk acquisition, announced 28 July 2026.
• Expected H2 2026 — completion of the majority-stake acquisition of Agusto & Co., announced 28 July 2026.
• Expected H2 2026 — completion of the Energy geoscience and petroleum-engineering software divestiture, which may slip into early 2027.
• 31 Dec 2026 — retirement of Steven Kemps as EVP and Chief Legal Officer; a successor search is under way.
• Expected Jan 2027 — the next annual dividend increase decision, which would be the 54th consecutive rise. The 2026 increase was declared on 14 January 2026.
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 results and FY2027 guidance. FY2025 results were reported on 10 February 2026.
• TBC — next Investor Day. The last was held on 13 November 2025 and no successor date has been published.

Scheduled macro releases that drive debt issuance volumes and index levels are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and company-specific discussion is on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 31 July 2026

Berkshire Hathaway is the first company in this series to be researched under a new chief executive. Gregory Abel took over as CEO on 1 January 2026, ending Warren Buffett's 55-year run in the role, and the first seven months of his tenure have produced a record first quarter, the resumption of buybacks after a full year of inactivity, two completed acquisitions and the largest cash pile the company has ever held. This report sets out what the filings actually say about the business Abel inherited, using only Berkshire's own press releases, its FY2025 Form 10-K and its Q1 2026 Form 10-Q. No analyst opinions or price targets appear anywhere in it.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Unrivalled scale and diversification: FY2025 revenues of $371,444m came from seven reportable segments spanning insurance underwriting, freight rail, regulated energy, manufacturing, food distribution, travel centres and retailing, with no single segment above 29% of revenue.
• A record and still-growing cash reserve: consolidated cash and US Treasury Bills stood at roughly $397bn at 31 March 2026, up from about $373bn at the end of 2025 — optionality that almost no other buyer of businesses possesses.
• Insurance float that funds itself: float reached $176.9bn at 31 March 2026, and FY2025 insurance underwriting produced a $9,460m pre-tax profit, meaning the investable capital carried a negative cost.
• The succession has been operationally uneventful: Q1 2026 operating earnings of $11,346m were 17.7% above the prior-year quarter, a record for a first quarter, and Abel completed the $9.5bn OxyChem purchase and the $8.5bn Taylor Morrison deal inside his first seven months.
• Capital return has restarted: after no repurchases at all during 2025, Berkshire bought back roughly $234m of stock in March 2026 under a programme now triggered by the CEO rather than by Buffett personally.

Bear Case

• Growth has stalled at the top line: FY2025 revenue of $371,444m was essentially unchanged on FY2024's $371,433m — an increase of $11m, or effectively zero, after +20.7% in FY2023.
• Operating earnings went backwards: FY2025 after-tax operating earnings of $44,486m were 6.2% below FY2024's $47,437m, with Q4 2025 down 29.8% year on year and insurance underwriting profit down 54% in that quarter.
• The cash pile is a symptom, not only a strength: Berkshire bought $16.9bn of equities against $30.7bn of sales in FY2025, a further year as a net seller, which is what happens when management cannot find assets at prices it likes.
• Concentration inside the equity book: Apple alone was $57.84bn of a $263.10bn portfolio at 31 March 2026, and FY2025 carried an $8,255m after-tax impairment on Kraft Heinz and Occidental.
• Key-person risk has been transferred, not removed: the FY2025 10-K states plainly that major capital allocation and investment decisions are now the responsibility of one person, Mr Abel, and he has no public multi-decade record of allocating at this scale.

3. Business Segments

Berkshire reports seven segments. The percentages below are each segment's share of FY2025 consolidated total revenues of $371,444m, taken from Note 26 of the FY2025 Form 10-K. Investment gains of $39,078m pre-tax are reported separately and are excluded from revenue.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Berkshire earns from three distinct engines. The insurance businesses collect premiums today against claims paid later, and the difference — the float, $176.9bn at 31 March 2026 — is invested for Berkshire's own account. The wholly-owned operating businesses, from BNSF to Precision Castparts to See's Candies, generate cash that is remitted to Omaha rather than reinvested locally beyond what each business needs. The marketable equity portfolio, worth $263.10bn at 31 March 2026, produces dividends and, unpredictably, mark-to-market gains that flow through GAAP net earnings but not through the operating-earnings figure management prefers.

Where the moat sits. The durable advantage is structural rather than product-based. Berkshire can write insurance risk no other underwriter will accept because its balance sheet absorbs single-event losses that would impair a peer — the FY2025 10-K states that Berkshire has been and will continue to be willing to assume more risk from a single event than any other insurer has knowingly assumed. It can buy whole companies for cash without financing conditions, which is why sellers who care about permanence accept a lower price. And its cost of capital is unusually low because float is effectively borrowed money on which the lender has, in profitable years, paid Berkshire for the privilege.

What it does not have. Berkshire has no consumer brand pulling revenue across the group, no network effect and no proprietary technology. The FY2025 10-K risk factors acknowledge directly that competition and technology may erode the business franchises. Several subsidiaries — McLane in particular, on $50,998m of revenue — are low-margin distribution businesses with no moat at all; they are held because they generate cash, not because they are defensible.

How capital is allocated. Cash goes to one of four places: capital expenditure inside the subsidiaries ($20,927m in FY2025, concentrated in BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy), whole-company acquisitions, marketable securities, or buybacks. Dividends have never been an option since 1967. The buyback authorisation was amended in 2025 so that the CEO, after consulting the Chairman, sets the trigger, with a hard floor requiring cash and Treasury Bills to stay above $30bn.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from Berkshire's own quarterly earnings press releases, the FY2025 Form 10-K filed 2 March 2026 and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q filed 4 May 2026. Berkshire uses an unclassified balance sheet, so the debt column shows total notes payable and other borrowings, which carries no current/non-current split.

† Berkshire does not publish a per-share operating earnings figure. The Adjusted EPS column is derived here as after-tax operating earnings divided by weighted-average Class B-equivalent shares outstanding, using the totals Berkshire does disclose: $27,455m, $30,853m, $37,350m, $47,437m and $44,486m respectively. All EPS figures are on a Class B basis; each Class A share equals 1,500 Class B shares. FY2022's GAAP loss reflects mark-to-market losses on the equity portfolio, not an operating loss.

The pattern worth noting is how far apart the two EPS columns sit. GAAP earnings swing on the mark-to-market value of the equity portfolio — $14.28 in Q3 2025 against $6.25 of operating earnings, then $4.68 against $5.26 in Q1 2026. Operating earnings are the smoother series and the one management points to. On that measure FY2025 was a down year: $44,486m against $47,437m, with the weakness concentrated in insurance, where underwriting profit fell and investment income declined from $13,670m to $12,513m after tax.

The balance sheet remains conservatively financed. Total borrowings of $128,886m at 31 March 2026 sit against $727,181m of Berkshire shareholders' equity and roughly $397bn of cash and Treasury Bills — Berkshire holds far more in short-dated government paper than it owes in total debt. Operating cash flow of $45,969m in FY2025 covered $20,927m of capital expenditure nearly two and a half times over.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Two cautions on the market-cap figure. Finviz publishes $989.65bn for BRK.B because it applies the Class B share count only; the arithmetically complete figure on the Class B-equivalent count, which includes Class A converted at 1,500:1, is approximately $1,099bn, and that is what is used throughout this section. Separately, book value is a more stable anchor than earnings for a company whose reported profit moves with the stock market. You can track the price action against these levels on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

A homebuilding operation at national scale. Berkshire agreed to buy Taylor Morrison Home Corporation on 31 May 2026 for $72.50 per share in cash, an equity value of roughly $6.8bn and an enterprise value of roughly $8.5bn, at a 24% premium to the prior close. The deal completed on 24 July 2026. Combined with Clayton Properties Group's fifteen regional homebuilders, the enlarged operation delivered close to 23,000 site-built home closings in 2025 across 21 states, 52 housing markets and more than 700 communities — making Berkshire the fourth-largest homebuilder in the United States. Taylor Morrison continues under CEO Sheryl Palmer.

A chemicals platform. The $9.5bn all-cash purchase of OxyChem from Occidental Petroleum completed on 2 January 2026, Abel's first day in the job. OxyChem is a top-three North American producer of PVC, chlor-alkali and chlorinated organics, running 21 US plants across ten states plus operations in Canada and Chile with roughly 4,000 employees and contractors. Occidental retained the legacy environmental liabilities. It slots into the Manufacturing segment alongside Lubrizol and Marmon.

A materially reshaped equity portfolio. The 13F filed on 15 May 2026 — Abel's first as CEO — showed the portfolio cut from 42 positions to 29 and from $274.16bn to $263.10bn. Alphabet Class A was increased 204% to 54,249,798 shares with a new Class C position alongside it, and a new 39,809,456-share Delta Air Lines holding appeared, Berkshire's first airline position since it liquidated the four US carriers in 2020. Chevron was cut 35% and Constellation Brands 95%. Amazon, Visa, Mastercard, UnitedHealth, Charter, Aon, Domino's Pizza, Pool Corp, HEICO and Lamar Advertising were exited entirely. Apple, at $57.84bn still the largest holding, was left completely untouched.

Buyback capacity. March 2026 saw the first repurchases in more than a year: 33 Class A shares at an average $729,701.17 and 431,462 Class B at an average $486.92, roughly $234m in total. Against a cash position near $397bn this is a rounding error, but the restart matters because the trigger now sits with Abel.

8. Peer Comparison

Market caps are as at the close on 30 July 2026; FY2025 figures are from each company's own annual filing. On market value Berkshire is roughly eight times Chubb, nine times Progressive and forty-seven times Markel — the comparison is really one of kind rather than degree, since none of these peers owns a Class I railroad or a regulated utility group. Progressive is the closest operating comparison to GEICO specifically, and its 87.4 combined ratio for FY2025 is the number to watch against GEICO's $6,824m of underwriting profit.

9. Insider Activity

Berkshire insiders filed nine Form 4s in 2026 to 31 July. The pattern is unusual: no open-market sales at all, two open-market purchases, and a series of charitable gifts. Chief Executive Gregory Abel's March purchase is the single most significant transaction. None of the filings reviewed carried a Rule 10b5-1 plan notation.

Two points stand out. First, CEO Gregory Abel committed roughly $15.31m of his own money to Class A stock across eighteen fills on 4 March 2026, taking his personal holding to 249 Class A shares — the clearest signal an incoming chief executive can send, and it was not made under a pre-arranged plan. Second, Buffett's 14 July conversion and donation of 12,000,000 Class B shares, worth roughly $5.89bn, is the continuation of an annual pledge rather than a view on price; it leaves him with 188,290 Class A shares. Separately, Berkshire filed Form 4s as a greater-than-10% owner of DaVita, selling 1,658,480 shares at $120.5561 on 29 January 2026 and 1,220,376 shares at $149.8429 on 1 May 2026 — portfolio disposals, not insider dealing in Berkshire stock.

10. Key Risks

• Concentrated capital-allocation authority: the FY2025 10-K states that major capital allocation and investment decisions are the responsibility of Mr Abel. The company's entire method depends on one person's judgement, and the record of the current holder of that authority is seven months long.
• Underwriting tolerance by design: Berkshire discloses that it has been and will continue to be willing to assume more risk from a single event than any other insurer has knowingly assumed. A single catastrophic loss could produce an underwriting result far outside the normal range.
• Equity concentration and impairment risk: the 10-K notes that a high percentage of the insurance subsidiaries' equity investments sit in a relatively small number of issuers. FY2025 carried an $8,255m after-tax other-than-temporary impairment on Kraft Heinz and Occidental, and large fair-value declines also reduce statutory surplus and therefore underwriting capacity.
• Geopolitical and trade exposure: the 10-K states that risks of adverse effects from geopolitical events are rising, and names international trade policies, tariffs and other barriers as a specific potential negative to operating results.
• Regulated-business capital intensity and policy risk: BNSF and Berkshire Hathaway Energy require heavy continuing capital investment and are subject to rate, safety, environmental and labour regulation. BNSF derives significant revenue from hauling coal, and policies that displace coal as a generation fuel hit that revenue directly.
• Climate and wildfire liability: the 10-K flags hurricanes, floods, wildfires and other extreme weather as impacting both the insurance and energy businesses, with Berkshire Hathaway Energy carrying disclosed exposure from the 2020 and 2022 wildfires.
• Cybersecurity: Berkshire states directly that certain of its information systems have been subject to cyber threats, and that attacks could impair operation of facilities and business systems across a decentralised group of nearly 400,000 employees.
• Regulatory change including AI and data privacy: the 10-K expressly identifies data privacy and artificial intelligence laws and regulations, enacted or under development across US and global jurisdictions, as a source of adverse impact on future operating results.

11. Recent Developments

• 01 Jan 2026 — Gregory Abel becomes Chief Executive Officer. Abel succeeded Warren Buffett after a unanimous board vote formalised in May 2025. Buffett remains Chairman. Michael J. O'Sullivan also joined as SVP and General Counsel on the same date.
• 02 Jan 2026 — OxyChem acquisition completes. Berkshire closed the all-cash purchase of Occidental's chemicals arm; the Q1 2026 10-Q puts the price paid at approximately $9.5bn. Occidental retained the legacy environmental liabilities.
• 28 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and Abel's first shareholder letter. FY2025 operating earnings of $44,486m were 6.2% below FY2024; Q4 operating earnings fell 29.8% to $10,200m with insurance underwriting profit down 54%. GAAP net earnings of $66,968m included an $8,255m after-tax impairment on Kraft Heinz and Occidental.
• 04 Mar 2026 — Abel buys 21 Class A shares personally. Roughly $15.31m at an average $728,970.11 per share, via his revocable trust, across eighteen separate fills.
• 31 Mar 2026 — buybacks restart after a full-year pause. All Q1 2026 repurchases occurred in March: 33 Class A at an average $729,701.17 and 431,462 Class B at an average $486.92, roughly $234m in total. There were no repurchases at all during 2025.
• 02 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results and the annual meeting in Omaha. Operating earnings of $11,346m were up 17.7% year on year, a first-quarter record. Net earnings were $10,106m against $4,603m. Cash and Treasury Bills reached roughly $397bn, an all-time high.
• 15 May 2026 — first 13F under the new CEO shows a major overhaul. The portfolio fell from 42 positions to 29. Alphabet was increased 204%, a new Delta Air Lines stake appeared, Chevron was cut 35% and Constellation Brands 95%, and ten positions including Amazon, Visa, Mastercard and UnitedHealth were exited outright. Apple was untouched.
• 31 May 2026 — Taylor Morrison agreed at $72.50 per share in cash. An equity value of roughly $6.8bn and enterprise value of roughly $8.5bn, a 24% premium to the 29 May close of $58.50. Abel's first major acquisition.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Buffett's annual charitable donation. He converted 8,000 Class A into 12,000,000 Class B and gifted all of it to five charitable organisations, worth roughly $5.89bn at that day's close, leaving him 188,290 Class A shares.
• 24 Jul 2026 — Taylor Morrison acquisition completes. The company delisted from the NYSE. Combined with Clayton Properties Group, Berkshire becomes the fourth-largest homebuilding operation in the United States.

12. Key Dates

• Expected 03 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Not officially announced as at 31 July 2026: there is no press release, no filed 10-Q and no advance notice on berkshirehathaway.com. Berkshire's pattern is a Saturday-morning posting with roughly two days' notice, and third-party trackers point to Monday 3 August.
• 14 Aug 2026 — statutory deadline for the Q2 2026 Form 13F, which will show the second portfolio constructed under Abel.
• Expected Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Not yet announced. Q3 2025 was released on Saturday 1 November 2025 and Q3 2024 on 2 November 2024.
• 16 Nov 2026 — statutory deadline for the Q3 2026 Form 13F.
• Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 results and the 2026 Annual Report, including Abel's second shareholder letter. Not yet announced; FY2025 was released on 28 February 2026.
• 01 May 2027 — 2027 Annual Shareholders Meeting, CHI Health Center, Omaha. Confirmed in Berkshire's own 2026 meeting visitor guide.
• 01 Jun 2027 — Marc D. Hamburg retires, completing the CFO transition to Charles C. Chang, who took the role on 1 June 2026.

Berkshire pays no dividend, so there are no declaration, record or ex-dividend dates to track. Scheduled macro releases that move the insurance and rail businesses are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and you can discuss this research with other members in the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 31 July 2026

Bank of America reported its strongest quarter in years on 14 July 2026 — diluted earnings per share of $1.21, up 34% year on year, on revenue of $31.6bn, up 15% — and followed it ten days later with a 14% dividend increase. The stock is trading close to its 52-week high as a result. This report works through what the filings show about how that result was produced, which parts of the bank are driving it, and what the FY2025 Form 10-K identifies as the risks. Every figure comes from Bank of America's own earnings releases and SEC filings, or from named market-data sources. There are no analyst opinions or price targets in it.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Every segment is compounding at once: Q2 2026 delivered double-digit net income growth in all four reporting segments simultaneously, producing revenue of $31,558m and net income of $9,074m.
• The markets business has become a genuine growth engine: Q2 2026 sales and trading revenue of $7.1bn was up 33% and marked the seventeenth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth, with Equities up 70% to $3.6bn.
• Net interest income is expanding again: NII rose from $56,060m in FY2024 to $60,096m in FY2025 and reached $15,997m in Q2 2026 alone, up 9% year on year, on a deposit base above $2.0 trillion.
• Capital return is accelerating from a position of strength: CET1 of 11.2% sits 120 basis points above the 10.0% requirement, and the bank returned $8.0bn in Q2 2026 alone while raising the dividend 14% and retaining roughly $17bn of a $40bn buyback authorisation.
• Operating leverage is real: Q2 2026 produced 6.6% positive operating leverage and an efficiency ratio of 59.02%, an improvement of 359 basis points, with ROTCE reaching 17.03% against a full-year FY2025 figure of 14.22%.

Bear Case

• The starting valuation is no longer depressed: at $61.73 the shares sit within 2% of the $62.99 52-week high, against a low of $44.75, so the re-rating has already happened and the stock trades above 1.5 times book.
• Trading revenue is the least durable part of the mix: Equities up 70% and investment banking fees up 50% in a single quarter is a cyclical peak signature, and Global Markets plus Global Banking together were 42.4% of FY2025 revenue.
• Credit costs are structurally higher than they were: the provision for credit losses swung from a $4,594m benefit in FY2021 to charges of $5,821m in FY2024 and $5,675m in FY2025, with FY2025 net charge-offs of $5,631m.
• Reported history has been restated: a Q4 2025 change in accounting for tax-related equity investments was applied retrospectively, restating FY2023 and FY2024 revenue and EPS, which makes any multi-year comparison against pre-2023 figures inexact.
• Regulatory and legal costs keep arriving: a $72.5m Epstein-related class action settlement in March 2026 and a $7.5m SEC penalty against Merrill Lynch for suspicious-activity-report failures in June 2026 are small individually but indicative of a persistent compliance drag.

3. Business Segments

Bank of America reports four business segments plus All Other. Segment results are stated on a fully taxable-equivalent basis, on which FY2025 total revenue was $113,706m; the percentages below are of that figure, from Note 22 of the FY2025 Form 10-K.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Two streams. Net interest income — $60,096m in FY2025, and 51% of Q2 2026 revenue — is the spread between what the bank earns on $3.5 trillion of assets and what it pays on $2.0 trillion of deposits and $399,842m of borrowings. Non-interest income comes from fees: asset management on $2.3 trillion of AUM, card interchange, investment banking fees of $2.1bn in Q2 2026, service charges and trading revenue of $7.1bn in the quarter. The first stream depends on rates and balance growth; the second depends on market activity and client wealth.

Where the moat sits. It is the deposit base. Bank of America holds the number one position in US consumer deposits, and the cost of those deposits is what makes the lending spread work — a competitor cannot replicate 3,530 financial centres, 38.7 million consumer checking accounts and roughly 60 million verified digital users at any price. Deposit franchises of this kind are sticky because switching a primary banking relationship is inconvenient rather than expensive, and that inconvenience is the moat. The second layer is regulatory: as a globally systemically important bank carrying a 3.0% GSIB surcharge, Bank of America operates inside a compliance perimeter that is a permanent barrier to new entrants.

How the segments feed each other. The design is deliberate. Consumer Banking gathers low-cost deposits and originates clients; Global Wealth & Investment Management monetises those clients as their assets grow; Global Banking serves the corporate side of the same relationships; Global Markets provides the institutional distribution that makes the investment bank credible. Client referral between segments is the reason the bank runs an integrated model rather than separate businesses.

What management is targeting. At its November 2025 investor day — the first in roughly fifteen years — the bank set out approximately 12% annual EPS growth over three to five years and a 16–18% ROTCE target, with the consumer bank aiming at $20bn of profit and wealth management growing revenue at twice the rate of expenses. Q2 2026 ROTCE of 17.03% is inside that target band. Executive pay has been aligned to it: Moynihan's 2025 award requires three-year average adjusted tangible book value growth of 10.5% and ROA of 90 basis points for a 100% payout, rising to 12.5% and 110 basis points for the 150% maximum — a level of net income the company has never achieved.

5. Financial Health

Figures are from Bank of America's quarterly earnings releases and supplemental information, and the FY2025 Form 10-K filed 25 February 2026. An important caveat: effective Q4 2025 the bank changed its accounting method for certain tax-related equity investments and applied the change retrospectively, restating FY2023 and FY2024. FY2021 and FY2022 have not been restated in any filing. The table uses restated figures for FY2023 to FY2025 and as-reported figures for FY2021 and FY2022; the mixed-basis comparison is flagged below.

† Bank of America does not report an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings per share figure. GAAP diluted EPS is repeated in the Adjusted EPS column for completeness. The bank's non-GAAP measures are return on average tangible common shareholders' equity, tangible book value per share, pretax pre-provision income, and revenue and net income excluding net DVA within Global Markets. ‡ FY2021 growth is not shown because FY2020 was not restated onto a comparable basis. FY2023's +8.2% compares restated FY2023 revenue with as-reported FY2022 revenue and therefore overstates the like-for-like change; on an as-reported basis FY2023 revenue was $98,581m, or +3.8%. Revenue throughout is total revenue, net of interest expense. Long-term debt excludes other short-term borrowings, which were $48,088m at the end of FY2025.

The sequential improvement is the point. Quarterly revenue has risen in every period from $27,443m to $31,558m, and EPS from $0.90 to $1.21, a 34% year-on-year increase. For the six months to 30 June 2026 revenue was $61,830m, net income $17,658m and diluted EPS $2.31 — already 61% of the full FY2025 EPS in half the time. Net interest income of $31,742m for the half compares with $60,096m for all of FY2025.

Credit quality has held. The Q2 2026 provision of $1,366m was below the $1,592m of Q2 2025, net charge-offs were $1,412m for a 0.47% ratio, and the allowance for credit losses stood at $14,264m, or 1.08% of loans, with non-performing loans at 0.47%. Capital and book value both moved the right way: CET1 of 11.2% against a 10.0% requirement, book value per share of $39.34 and tangible book value per share of $29.37, each up 7% year on year. The share count is shrinking meaningfully — weighted-average diluted shares fell from 8,558.4m in FY2021 to 7,680.9m in FY2025, and common shares outstanding were 7,017,967,460 at 30 June 2026.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

For banks the two multiples that carry information are price to tangible book and the return that justifies it. Bank of America trades at roughly 2.10 times tangible book while producing a 17.03% return on tangible common equity in the most recent quarter. Live price levels against the 52-week range are on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

A markets franchise that no longer looks cyclical. Q2 2026 sales and trading revenue of $7.1bn was the seventeenth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth — more than four straight years. Equities rose 70% to $3.6bn and FICC 9% to $3.5bn. Investment banking fees excluding self-led deals were $2.1bn, up 50%. The consistency of the streak is what distinguishes this from a single strong quarter, though seventeen quarters is still short of a full cycle.

A rebuilt consumer rewards architecture. BofA Rewards launched on 27 May 2026, absorbing the legacy Preferred Rewards programme. Roughly two million clients enrolled during Q2 2026, taking total enrolment to 13.3 million by 30 June. The economics of the consumer bank depend on deepening relationships rather than acquiring new ones, and rewards tiering is the mechanism.

Wealth management scale. Global Wealth & Investment Management ended Q2 2026 with $4.9 trillion of client balances and $2.3 trillion of assets under management, on FY2025 revenue of $24,883m. Management's stated aim is revenue growth at twice the rate of expense growth — this is the segment where operating leverage is expected to come from rather than headcount reduction.

Capital return under a favourable regulatory turn. On 4 February 2026 the Federal Reserve voted to maintain existing stress capital buffer requirements until 2027 while it consults on revised stress-test models, so the June 2026 stress test did not reset the requirement. On 19 March 2026 the OCC, Federal Reserve and FDIC jointly re-proposed the Basel III framework, formally rescinding the 2023 endgame proposal, with the agencies expecting system capital to decrease modestly. Bank of America's total CET1 requirement stands at 10.0% — 4.5% minimum plus a 2.5% stress capital buffer plus a 3.0% GSIB surcharge — against 11.2% actual. That 120 basis point cushion is what funds the $40bn buyback authorisation, of which roughly $17bn remained at 30 June 2026.

8. Peer Comparison

Bank of America is the second-largest US money-centre bank by market value, well behind JPMorgan — which is approaching $1 trillion and earned $57,048m in FY2025 against Bank of America's $30,509m — but ahead of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Market caps are from the Nasdaq quote service on 31 July 2026; FY2025 figures are from each bank's own annual filing.

9. Insider Activity

Form 4 activity in 2026 follows a routine pattern for a large bank: restricted stock units vest in mid-February and on 1 March, shares are withheld to cover tax, and several senior executives then sell part of what remains. There were no open-market purchases by Bank of America insiders in 2026 to 31 July. Chief Executive Brian Moynihan's beneficial holding has been unchanged at 2,699,612 shares since 1 March 2026. None of the Form 4 documents reviewed carried an explicit Rule 10b5-1 plan footnote, so plan type is recorded below as not disclosed.

The reading is straightforward. Chief Executive Brian Moynihan has not sold on the open market at all — the recurring 18,083-share monthly entries are settlement of previously awarded units disposed back to the company, and his holding has been flat since March. The discretionary selling sits one level below him, with roughly $31.1m disposed by named executives across 2026 to date, concentrated in the fortnight after the annual vest at prices between $46.94 and $53.01. Every one of those sales was struck below the current $61.73 share price. There were no insider purchases.

10. Key Risks

• Credit deterioration and reserve adequacy: the FY2025 10-K warns that economic or market disruptions and insufficient credit loss reserves may result in a higher provision for credit losses. FY2025 net charge-offs were $5,631m against an allowance of $14,264m, and the provision has run above $5.6bn for two consecutive years.
• Interest rate and market risk: the bank identifies that increased market volatility and adverse changes in financial or capital market conditions may increase its market risk, and that declining asset values may hit capital and liquidity positions. Net interest income of $60,096m is the single largest revenue line and is rate-dependent.
• Funding, liquidity and rating sensitivity: the 10-K flags that an inability to access capital markets, sustained net deposit outflows or higher borrowing costs would damage the competitive position, and that a credit rating reduction could trigger additional collateral or funding requirements. Long-term debt stood at $339,863m at 30 June 2026.
• Cybersecurity and third-party dependency: the bank and the third parties it relies on are subject to cybersecurity incidents, and the 10-K notes that emerging technologies including artificial intelligence may amplify threat-actor capabilities in ways that are difficult to anticipate.
• Regulatory capital and legislative change: US federal banking agencies may require increased capital and liquidity levels, and the 10-K notes that Federal Reserve hypothetical scenarios may affect stress test results and therefore the stress capital buffer. The Basel III framework was re-proposed on 19 March 2026 and is not yet finalised.
• Litigation and enforcement: the bank warns of significant financial and reputational harm from lawsuits and regulatory action. Recent instances include a $72.5m Epstein-related settlement on 27 March 2026 and a $7.5m SEC penalty against Merrill Lynch on 29 June 2026 for failing to file numerous suspicious activity reports between April 2020 and September 2024.
• Geopolitical exposure: operating across more than 35 jurisdictions brings political, economic, compliance and legal risk, with the 10-K specifically flagging escalation of US–China tensions including tariff increases.
• Model and data risk: the bank states it could suffer operational, reputational and financial harm if its models fail to properly anticipate and manage risk, and that failure to manage data could produce errors in operations, reporting and decision-making.

11. Recent Developments

• 06 Jan 2026 — retrospective accounting change restates prior years. An 8-K furnished revised supplemental information reflecting a change in accounting for certain tax-related equity investments, restating FY2024 revenue to $105,856m and EPS to $3.19, and FY2023 to $102,769m and $3.05.
• 14 Jan 2026 — FY2025 results. Full-year revenue $113,097m, up 7%; net income $30,509m; diluted EPS $3.81; ROE 10.59% and ROTCE 14.22%; CET1 11.4%. Q4 revenue was $28,367m with EPS of $0.98.
• 04 Feb 2026 — Federal Reserve holds stress capital buffers to 2027. The Board voted to maintain existing requirements pending public feedback on revised stress-test models, meaning the 2026 stress test did not reset Bank of America's buffer.
• 13 Feb 2026 — chief executive pay disclosed with raised hurdles. Moynihan's 2025 award comprised a $1.5m salary, no cash bonus and $39.5m of equity incentives. The board introduced a 150% maximum payout requiring three-year average tangible book value growth of 12.5% and ROA of 110 basis points, equating to roughly $37bn of annual net income — more than the company has earned in any year.
• 19 Mar 2026 — Basel III endgame formally re-proposed. The OCC, Federal Reserve and FDIC jointly issued three notices of proposed rulemaking rescinding the 2023 framework, with the Fed voting 6–1. The agencies expect overall system capital would modestly decrease. The comment period closed on 18 June 2026.
• 27 Mar 2026 — $72.5m Epstein-related settlement. The bank agreed to settle a class action brought by victims of Jeffrey Epstein alleging it facilitated his operation, while expressly denying and continuing to deny participation or facilitation.
• 15 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue $30,272m, net income $8,584m, diluted EPS $1.11, ROTCE 16.00%, CET1 11.2%, tangible book value per share $28.84.
• 04 May 2026 — annual meeting. All twelve directors were elected and say-on-pay approved. Both shareholder proposals were defeated, including one seeking an independent board chair, which drew 1,719m votes for against 3,562m against.
• 24 Jun 2026 — 2026 Federal Reserve stress test results published. Banks absorbed more than $708bn of aggregate losses with capital falling only 1.6 percentage points. Bank of America's total CET1 requirement was confirmed at 10.0%, against 11.2% actual.
• 29 Jun 2026 — SEC penalises Merrill Lynch $7.5m. A settled administrative order found Merrill Lynch failed to file numerous suspicious activity reports from April 2020 through September 2024, because the transaction-monitoring system only investigated event groups scoring above a risk threshold. Merrill agreed to a cease-and-desist order and censure without admitting the findings.
• 14 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results, the strongest in years. Net income $9,074m and diluted EPS $1.21, up 34%; revenue $31,558m, up 15%; NII $15,997m, up 9%; ROTCE 17.03%; efficiency ratio 59.02%. Investment banking fees rose 50% and sales and trading 33%, with Equities up 70%. All four segments grew net income by double digits.
• 23 Jul 2026 — dividend raised 14%. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share, up from $0.28, payable 25 September 2026 to holders of record on 4 September 2026. In the first half of 2026 the bank repurchased $13.2bn of stock and paid $4bn of dividends, with roughly $17bn remaining under the $40bn authorisation in place since 1 August 2025.

12. Key Dates

• Expected Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filing. Not filed as at 31 July 2026; the Q1 2026 10-Q was filed on 1 May 2026.
• 04 Sep 2026 — record date for the raised $0.32 quarterly common dividend. Under T+1 settlement the ex-dividend date normally falls on the same business day, but the company does not publish it separately.
• 25 Sep 2026 — payment date for the $0.32 quarterly common dividend.
• 09 Oct 2026 — record date for the $1.75 per share dividend on the 7% Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Series B.
• 14 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Press release expected around 6:45am ET with the investor call at 8:30am ET. Officially announced.
• 23 Oct 2026 — payment date for the Preferred Series B dividend.
• 15 Jan 2027 — Q4 2026 and full-year 2026 results. Officially announced on 19 March 2026.
• 14 Apr 2027 — Q1 2027 results. Officially announced.
• 14 Jul 2027 — Q2 2027 results. Officially announced.
• Expected May 2027 — 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. Not yet announced; the 2026 meeting was held on 4 May 2026.

Rate decisions and inflation prints move net interest income more than any company-specific event, and those are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar. You can discuss this research with other members in the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 19 July 2026

BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) is the world's largest asset manager, with a record $15.3 trillion of assets under management at 30 June 2026. Once known primarily as the home of iShares ETFs and index funds, the firm has spent the past two years re-engineering itself around private markets, data and technology, spending roughly $28bn on Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), HPS Investment Partners, Preqin and ElmTree Funds. Second-quarter 2026 results, published on 15 July, showed revenue up 31% year on year and adjusted EPS of $13.91 — both records. This report lays out the numbers, the valuation and both sides of the argument, with no analyst opinions.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record scale and organic growth: AUM reached a record $15.3tn at 30 June 2026 with $191.7bn of Q2 net inflows; 2025 delivered a record $698bn of full-year net inflows, 6% organic asset growth and 9% organic base-fee growth, with last-twelve-month organic base-fee growth running at 10–11%.
• Private-markets transformation: The GIP, HPS, Preqin and ElmTree acquisitions have built a large fee-paying private-markets platform spanning infrastructure, private credit and real assets; Q2 2026 performance fees rose 224% year on year and securities lending 40%, while insurance and pension mandates feed the HPS credit engine.
• Aladdin and data flywheel: Technology services and subscription revenue grew 13% year on year in Q2 2026 ($1,981m in FY2025), and Preqin bolts proprietary private-markets data onto Aladdin — recurring, market-independent revenue that software peers command premium multiples for.
• Margin expansion and shareholder returns: Adjusted operating margin hit 45.9% in Q2 2026 (43.3% a year earlier); the dividend was raised 10% for 2026 to $5.73 per quarter — a 16th consecutive annual increase — alongside ongoing buybacks and a record $5.0bn returned to shareholders in 2025.
• Product breadth and new-market optionality: iShares dominates global ETFs, IBIT became the fastest-growing exchange-traded product in history, and BlackRock is positioning for tokenization of funds and the retirement/models channel — multiple shots on structural growth themes.

Bear Case

• Market-beta dependence: Base fees are priced on AUM, so revenue is geared to equity and bond markets BlackRock does not control; a bear market would compress fees, performance fees and flows simultaneously — the 2022 template, when revenue fell 7.7%.
• Fee compression: The secular price war in index funds and ETFs grinds average fee rates lower every year, meaning BlackRock must keep winning outsized flows just to stand still on revenue.
• Integration and dilution drag: GAAP EPS fell from $42.01 to $35.31 in FY2025 despite record revenue, weighed down by a $720m contingent-consideration charge, $775m of intangible amortisation and restructuring; 8.5m Subco units issued for HPS dilute existing holders, and goodwill-heavy deals raise impairment risk if private markets cool.
• Political and geopolitical entanglements: BlackRock sits in the crossfire of the US–China dispute over the CK Hutchison Panama-ports consortium, faces state-level ESG boycotts in parts of the US, and its systemic scale keeps regulatory designation debates alive.
• Key-person and succession risk: The firm remains closely identified with 73-year-old founder Larry Fink; recent Form 4 filings show sustained insider selling (~$45m net over 90 days), and no formal succession timetable has been disclosed.

3. Business Segments

BlackRock manages the business as a single operating segment, but its FY2025 revenue splits cleanly by line:

By product, Q2 2026 base fees were spread across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, alternatives and cash, with ETFs the single largest wrapper and private markets the fastest-growing fee pool.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. BlackRock charges a percentage fee on client assets: a few basis points on giant index and ETF pools, more on active strategies, and the richest fees plus performance carry on private-markets vehicles from GIP and HPS. Aladdin adds contracted technology subscriptions. Because costs are substantially fixed, incremental AUM drops through at high margin — adjusted operating margin reached 45.9% in Q2 2026.

The moat. Scale is self-reinforcing: iShares' liquidity begets more liquidity, making its ETFs hard to displace; Aladdin is embedded in the plumbing of hundreds of institutions with high switching costs; and the brand plus distribution reach give BlackRock first call on the largest mandates, from sovereign funds to insurance general accounts.

The private-markets pivot. Management is deliberately shifting the revenue mix toward higher-fee, longer-duration private assets — infrastructure (GIP), private credit (HPS, ElmTree) and the data to price them (Preqin) — targeting revenue streams less hostage to daily market beta and fee compression.

5. Financial Health

All figures from BlackRock earnings releases, 10-K filings and SEC XBRL data.

† FY2025 GAAP EPS fell despite record revenue because of acquisition-related items: a $720m change in fair value of contingent consideration, $775m amortisation/impairment of intangibles, a $39m restructuring charge and noncontrolling-interest effects from HPS Subco units. Long-term debt is the balance-sheet "long-term borrowings" line per SEC XBRL; dividends are cash declared and paid per share. FY2021 YoY is calculated against FY2020 revenue of $16,205m.

† Q1 2026 GAAP EPS exceeded adjusted EPS mainly on non-operating investment gains. From Q3 2025, adjusted EPS assumes all HPS Subco units are exchanged one-for-one into BLK common stock. FY2025 cash flow statement (used in Section 6): operating cash flow $3,927m, capital expenditure $375m, depreciation and amortisation $1,126m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers — What Are They Building?

The build-out is a deliberate second act. First, private markets: GIP (infrastructure, closed October 2024), HPS (private credit, closed July 2025), ElmTree (net-lease real estate, closed September 2025) and Preqin (private-markets data, closed March 2025) assemble an alternatives platform aimed at insurance balance sheets, wealth channels and retirement accounts — higher-fee assets with locked-up capital. Second, technology and data: Aladdin plus Preqin turns BlackRock into the pricing and analytics layer for private assets, a subscription business growing 13% a year. Third, new wrappers: IBIT and the iShares digital-asset suite became the fastest-growing ETP franchise in history, and management named tokenization of funds a defining market theme for 2026. Fourth, the retirement and model-portfolio channel in the US and Asia wealth expansion give the index engine fresh distribution. Management frames the ambition simply: $400bn+ of private-markets fundraising cumulatively by 2030 and technology revenue compounding double-digit — making a third of revenue market-independent over time.

8. Competitive Landscape

Direct public comparators in asset management and alternatives:

BlackRock is roughly the size of the next four listed managers combined by market value, and its $15.3tn AUM is more than double the combined AUM of the alternatives leaders — though Blackstone and Apollo still out-earn it per dollar of AUM in fee rate terms.

9. Insider Activity

Form 4 filings in 2026 show sustained selling by senior leadership, including Chairman and CEO Larry Fink and President Robert Kapito — net insider sales of roughly $45m over the 90 days to mid-July 2026:

Fink retained ~223,831 shares (including unvested RSUs) after the July sale, so sales are small relative to his holding, but the direction of travel in 2026 has been one-way.

10. Key Risks

• Market risk (Macro): Fees are a percentage of AUM, so a sustained equity or bond bear market would cut base fees, performance fees and flows at the same time — revenue fell 7.7% in 2022 on exactly this dynamic.
• Fee compression (Competitive): Index and ETF pricing wars structurally erode the average fee rate; organic growth must outrun repricing every year.
• Integration and balance-sheet risk (Financial): Roughly $28bn of acquisitions since 2024 brought $720m of contingent-consideration charges and $775m of intangible amortisation in FY2025 alone, plus goodwill that would be tested hard if private-markets fundraising slows.
• Regulatory and political scrutiny (Regulatory): Anti-ESG campaigns in several US states, antitrust attention on common ownership, and recurring systemic-importance debates could constrain products or raise costs.
• Geopolitical exposure (Geopolitical): BlackRock's role in the CK Hutchison Panama-ports consortium has drawn Beijing's ire while it manages ~$16bn in Chinese equities — a live example of cross-border deals becoming political footballs.
• Key-person and operational risk (Governance/Operational): Succession after founder-CEO Larry Fink (73) is unresolved; separately, Aladdin's ubiquity concentrates operational and cyber risk in one platform.

11. Recent Developments

• 15 Jul 2026 — Record Q2 2026 results. Revenue $7,084m (+31% year on year), GAAP EPS $12.19, adjusted EPS $13.91 (beat), AUM a record $15.34tn with $191.7bn of quarterly net inflows; adjusted operating margin 45.9%.
• 19 May 2026 — Quarterly dividend declared. $5.73 per share, paid 23 June 2026 (record date 5 June) — the 2026 rate is 10% above 2025, the 16th consecutive annual increase.
• 14 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue $6,698m (+27%), GAAP EPS $14.06, adjusted EPS $12.53, record first-quarter flows and 13% annualised organic base-fee growth.
• 15 Jan 2026 — Full-year 2025 results and dividend raise. Record $698bn of 2025 net inflows and $14.0tn closing AUM; revenue +19% to $24,216m; adjusted EPS $48.09; 2026 dividend raised 10%.

Coverage through mid-July 2026 also highlighted continued leadership of IBIT in US spot-bitcoin ETF inflows and management's framing of crypto and tokenization as defining 2026 market themes.

12. Key Dates

• Expected 13 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results (BlackRock typically reports mid-October; date per earnings calendars, to be confirmed by the company)
• Expected Sep 2026 — next quarterly dividend record and payment dates (recent pattern: record early final month of quarter, payment ~23rd)
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4/full-year 2026 results and 2027 dividend announcement

BlackRock's annual Investor Day and proxy filings will set out any updates to private-markets and technology-revenue targets.

Track BLK live on our Live Charts, check macro catalysts on the Economic Calendar, or join the discussion on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 13 July 2026

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is a 157-year-old global investment bank whose business is advising, financing and trading for the world's largest companies, institutions and governments — and, increasingly, managing their money. Founded in 1869 and headquartered at 200 West Street in New York, the firm now runs three reporting segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions. In 2025 it produced net revenues of $58.28 billion and diluted earnings per share of $51.32, and in the first quarter of 2026 it delivered its second-highest quarterly net revenues, net earnings and EPS on record. This report sets out what Goldman is, how it earns money, what the reported numbers actually say, and what could change them — using only figures taken from the firm's own earnings releases and SEC filings. No analyst opinions, no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Earnings power has re-rated: Diluted EPS has gone from $22.87 in 2023 to $40.54 in 2024 to $51.32 in 2025, and the first quarter of 2026 alone delivered $17.55 with a 19.8% annualised return on equity — the second-highest quarterly EPS in the firm's history.
• Number one in the deal business: Goldman ranked #1 in announced and completed M&A and in equity and equity-related offerings in the first quarter of 2026 (Dealogic). Investment banking fees of $2.84bn in Q1 2026 were 48% higher year on year, with Advisory up 89%.
• Financing is the quiet compounder: Equities financing revenues were a record $2.61bn in Q1 2026, up 59% year on year, and full-year 2025 Equities financing was $7.20bn (+31%). This is recurring, balance-sheet-backed revenue rather than episodic trading.
• Asset & Wealth Management is scaling: Assets under supervision reached a record $3.65 trillion at 31 March 2026, with a 33rd consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows and management fees from alternatives up 13% year on year. Management's stated ambition is $750bn of alternative assets under supervision by 2030.
• Capital return is rising: The firm returned $16.78bn to common shareholders in 2025 (including $12.36bn of buybacks), and after the 2026 CCAR results announced it intends to lift the quarterly dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 — 25% above the prior year — with its stress capital buffer held at 3.4%.

Bear Case

• Cyclicality is structural, not solved: Net revenues fell from $59.34bn in 2021 to $47.37bn in 2022 and $46.25bn in 2023 — a 22% peak-to-trough decline in two years. The advisory and underwriting fee pool that is now driving earnings can contract just as fast.
• FICC is going the other way: First-quarter 2026 FICC net revenues of $4.01bn were 10% lower year on year, with intermediation down 13%. The strength is concentrated in equities and banking.
• Capital ratios have tightened: The Standardized CET1 ratio fell from 14.3% at 31 December 2025 to 12.5% at 31 March 2026, and the supplementary leverage ratio from 5.2% to 4.6%, as risk-weighted assets and balance-sheet exposure grew. Total assets rose to $2.06 trillion in the quarter.
• The consumer chapter cost real money: Platform Solutions produced negative net revenues of $(1.68)bn in Q4 2025 on $2.26bn of markdowns and contract-termination obligations related to transferring the Apple Card portfolio to another issuer; the segment's 2025 net revenues collapsed to $151m from $2.13bn.

3. Business Segments

Goldman changed its segment presentation starting in the fourth quarter of 2025. The three segments and their share of FY2025 net revenues of $58.28bn are below.

4. How It Makes Money

Goldman's revenue is not one thing. It is four distinct engines with very different behaviour, and understanding which is firing explains most of the share-price story.

Fees for advice and access to capital. When a company buys another company, or lists shares, or issues bonds, Goldman is paid a fee. In FY2025 that produced $9.34bn — advisory $4.73bn, equity underwriting $1.78bn, debt underwriting $2.83bn. It is high-margin, requires almost no balance sheet, and is entirely dependent on chief executives feeling confident enough to act. Q1 2026 fees of $2.84bn (+48% year on year) show what happens when they do.

Intermediation — being the market. Goldman stands between buyers and sellers in bonds, currencies, commodities and equities, earning the spread and taking managed risk. In FY2025 FICC intermediation was $10.27bn and Equities intermediation $9.34bn. Average daily value-at-risk was $90m for 2025, giving a sense of the risk carried to earn it.

Financing — lending against collateral. This is the least glamorous and arguably the best business: prime brokerage financing for hedge funds, securities-based lending, mortgages and structured loans. Equities financing produced $7.20bn and FICC financing $4.25bn in FY2025. Loans reached $253bn at 31 March 2026 with net charge-offs of just $9m in the quarter (an annualised rate of 0.0%) and roughly 85% of gross loans secured.

Fees on managed assets. Asset & Wealth Management charges a percentage of the $3.65 trillion it supervises. Management and other fees were $11.54bn in FY2025 and $3.08bn in Q1 2026 alone. Alternatives carry higher effective fees (58 basis points on average across $428bn of alternatives AUS in Q1 2026, versus 75bp on funds and discretionary accounts) and are where the firm is pushing hardest.

Costs are dominated by people: compensation and benefits were $18.91bn of $37.54bn of FY2025 operating expenses. The firm's efficiency ratio was 64.4% in 2025 and 60.5% in Q1 2026.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from Goldman Sachs earnings press releases and Form 10-K XBRL data filed with the SEC. Long-term debt is unsecured long-term borrowings at year-end.

¹ Goldman Sachs does not publish an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings-per-share measure; it reports on a GAAP basis only. Revenue is net revenues (revenues net of interest expense). Dividends are dividends declared per common share as reported in the firm's 10-K XBRL data.

The balance sheet at 31 December 2025 showed total assets of $1.81 trillion, deposits of $501bn, cash and cash equivalents of $164bn, unsecured long-term borrowings of $286bn and shareholders' equity of $125bn. By 31 March 2026 total assets had grown to $2.06 trillion and deposits to $561bn. Common equity tier 1 capital was $104.3bn at year-end 2025 for a 14.4% Standardized CET1 ratio; that ratio was 12.5% at 31 March 2026 against an 11.4% requirement. The effective tax rate was 21.4% for 2025 and 13.2% in Q1 2026 (flattered by share-based award settlements).

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

You can chart these against the market's own read of momentum on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

Alternatives at scale. The strategic push is to turn Goldman's investing franchise into a fee stream rather than a balance-sheet return. Alternative investments AUS reached $429bn at 31 March 2026, management fees from alternatives were $597m in the quarter (+13% year on year), and gross third-party fundraising was $26bn in the quarter ($464bn raised since 2019). In July 2026 the firm publicly framed a target of $750bn of alternative assets under supervision by 2030, sizing the private-credit market at roughly $3.5 trillion.

Buying capability rather than building it. Goldman completed the acquisition of Industry Ventures (venture-capital secondaries) in Q1 2026 — which brought $5bn of inflows into long-term AUS — and Innovator Capital Management in Q2 2026.

Financing over flow. Management is consciously growing the financing book — prime, portfolio, mortgage and structured lending — because it is more durable than intermediation. Equities financing hit a record in Q1 2026 and total loans reached $253bn.

Productivity from AI. The firm explicitly lists artificial intelligence among its productivity initiatives in its forward-looking statements. Headcount was 47,400 at end-2025, up 2% in the year but down 2% in the fourth quarter.

8. Competitors

9. Leadership & Insiders

Goldman Sachs is led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David Solomon, who has held the CEO role since 2018 and is quoted in both the Q1 2026 earnings materials and the June 2026 CCAR statement. On the Q1 2026 results he said the firm "delivered very strong performance for our shareholders this quarter, even as market conditions became more volatile," adding that "disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate."

Insider activity in the period searched consists of routine disposals by the CEO; there is no material insider buying on record and no material insider selling beyond the ordinary-course sales shown above. Insider sales of this size at a firm that pays a large share of compensation in stock are not, on their own, a signal about the business.

10. Risks

• Cyclical revenue collapse (Market risk): Investment banking fees and trading revenues are tied to deal activity and volatility. Net revenues fell 20.2% in 2022 and a further 2.3% in 2023. A stalled M&A cycle would remove the single biggest driver of the 2024–26 earnings recovery.
• Capital and regulatory constraints (Regulatory): The Standardized CET1 ratio fell to 12.5% at 31 March 2026 against an 11.4% requirement, and the supplementary leverage ratio to 4.6%. Any tightening of US capital rules, or a worse stress-test outcome in a future CCAR cycle, would directly constrain buybacks and dividends.
• Credit losses in a growing loan book (Credit): Loans grew to $253bn by 31 March 2026 with a $315m provision for credit losses in the quarter, which the firm attributed partly to impairments on wholesale loans. Commercial real estate exposure alone was $39bn.
• Trading and market risk (Market): Average daily value-at-risk was $90m for 2025. A disorderly move in rates, credit or equities can turn intermediation revenue negative in a single quarter.
• Concentration in a single business (Operational): Global Banking & Markets produced 71% of FY2025 net revenues. Asset & Wealth Management grew just 2% in 2025 and Platform Solutions collapsed to $151m, leaving little diversification cushion.
• Litigation and regulatory proceedings (Legal): Net provisions for litigation and regulatory proceedings were $215m in 2025, up from $166m in 2024. As a systemically important dealer, Goldman carries persistent legal exposure.
• Macro and geopolitical shock (Macro): Management explicitly flags a "very complex" geopolitical landscape. Tariffs, conflict, or a sharp economic slowdown would hit fees, credit and asset values simultaneously.

Scheduled macro events that move bank earnings — rate decisions and inflation prints — are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

11. Recent Developments

• 15 Jan 2026 — Goldman reports FY2025 EPS of $51.32 and raises the dividend 12.5%. Full-year net revenues of $58.28bn (+9%), net earnings of $17.18bn, a 15.0% return on equity, and book value per share up 6.2% to $357.60. The board lifted the quarterly dividend from $4.00 to $4.50 per share, payable 30 March 2026. The firm returned $16.78bn to common shareholders during 2025.
• 13 Apr 2026 — Second-highest quarter on record. Q1 2026 net revenues of $17.23bn (+14% year on year), net earnings of $5.63bn, diluted EPS of $17.55 and a 19.8% annualised ROE. Global Banking & Markets set a record $12.74bn, with record Equities net revenues and record Equities financing. AUS hit a record $3.65 trillion. Provision for credit losses was $315m.
• 24 Jun 2026 — Federal Reserve CCAR results; dividend to rise again. Goldman's stress capital buffer stays at 3.4% through 30 September 2027 and its Standardized CET1 requirement at 11.4%. The firm said it intends to raise the quarterly common dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 per share from 1 July 2026 — 11% higher than the current level and 25% above the prior year — subject to board approval at the third-quarter meeting.
• 08 Jul 2026 — Private-markets ambition set out. Goldman publicly framed a target of $750bn in alternative assets under supervision by 2030, with CEO David Solomon sizing the private-credit market at roughly $3.5 trillion of total assets and $1.6–1.7 trillion in direct lending alone.
• Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 — The Apple Card exit lands in the numbers. Platform Solutions posted negative net revenues of $(1.68)bn in Q4 2025 after $2.26bn of markdowns and contract-termination obligations tied to transferring the Apple Card loan portfolio to another issuer, more than offset in earnings terms by a $2.48bn reserve release. The segment's Q1 2026 net revenues of $411m were still 33% below the prior year.

12. Key Dates

• 14 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter 2026 earnings results, released before the opening bell (the immediate catalyst for this report).
• Expected Oct 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 earnings results.
• Expected Jul 2026 — Board decision on the intended increase of the quarterly common dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 per share, effective from 1 July 2026, at the scheduled third-quarter board meeting.
• 30 Sep 2027 — End of the period through which Goldman's 3.4% stress capital buffer requirement is fixed following the 2026 CCAR results.
• Expected Jan 2027 — Full-year and fourth-quarter 2026 earnings results.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 20 June 2026

The Travelers Companies (NYSE: TRV) is one of the largest property and casualty insurers in the United States and a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It underwrites commercial, specialty and personal insurance through three segments, and earns money in two ways: an underwriting profit when premiums collected exceed claims and expenses, and investment income on the large pool of premiums it holds before claims are paid. In 2025 Travelers produced record results — net income of $6.29 billion, total revenues of $48.83 billion and a consolidated combined ratio of 89.9% — and in April 2026 it raised its dividend for a 22nd consecutive year. This report sets out how the business is built, the strength of its underwriting and investment engines, where the valuation sits, and the risks and catalysts ahead. You can follow the price on our Live Charts and watch macro releases on the Economic Calendar.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Best-in-class underwriting: Travelers delivered a consolidated combined ratio of 89.9% in 2025 and an underlying combined ratio below 84%, with all three segments profitable, evidence of disciplined risk selection and pricing.
• Rising investment income: Higher reinvestment rates and a growing, high-quality fixed-income portfolio lifted after-tax net investment income to $3.25 billion in 2025, a durable tailwind as bonds roll over into higher yields.
• Strong capital return: The company returned $4.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, raised the dividend 14% in April 2026 to extend a 22-year streak, and added $5.0 billion to its buyback authorisation.
• Book-value compounding: Adjusted book value per share grew 14% in 2025 to $158.01, and book value per share rose 23% as interest rates eased, reflecting consistent value creation.
• Diversified, market-leading franchise: Leadership positions across Business Insurance, Bond & Specialty and Personal Insurance spread risk across commercial, surety and consumer lines.

Bear Case

• Catastrophe exposure: Results are inherently volatile; first-quarter 2026 alone carried $761 million of pre-tax catastrophe losses from winter storms and tornado-hail events, and a severe season can swing earnings sharply.
• Pricing-cycle risk: Commercial-insurance rate increases have moderated, and softening pricing could pressure margins if loss-cost inflation persists.
• Reserve dependence: Recent results have benefited from net favourable prior-year reserve development; a reversal would weigh on reported earnings.
• Reinvestment and rate sensitivity: The investment tailwind narrows if interest rates fall, and the bond portfolio's marked value moves inversely with yields.
• Personal-lines competition: Auto and homeowners remain intensely competitive against larger, technology-driven rivals on price and customer acquisition.

3. Business Segments

Travelers reports three segments. The figures below are full-year 2025 net written premiums.

Segment net written premiums sum to the consolidated $44.39 billion written in 2025.

4. How Travelers Makes Money

Travelers runs a classic dual-engine insurance model: it must price risk well, and it must invest the float wisely.

Underwriting profit. The first engine is underwriting. Travelers collects premiums and pays claims and expenses; when the combined ratio is below 100%, the difference is an underwriting profit. A combined ratio of 89.9% in 2025 means the company kept roughly ten cents of every premium dollar as underwriting margin before investment returns — an unusually strong result driven by disciplined pricing, favourable prior-year reserve development and a manageable catastrophe load.

Investment income on the float. The second engine is the investment portfolio. Because claims are paid out over months and years, Travelers holds a large pool of premiums — the float — which it invests mainly in high-quality fixed income. After-tax net investment income reached $3.25 billion in 2025 and is growing as maturing bonds are reinvested at higher yields. Together, underwriting margin and investment income produced a full-year core return on equity of 19.4%, with surplus capital recycled to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

5. Financial Health

The five-year record below is drawn from Travelers' annual earnings releases. Core income (the insurer's adjusted measure) excludes net realised investment gains and losses and certain other items. Long-term debt reflects holding-company borrowings; the year-end 2025 debt-to-capital ratio was 22.0%, within the company's 15–25% target.

Quarterly total revenues and earnings are shown below, most recent first, with the bold full-year 2025 total at the foot.

Shareholders' equity ended 2025 at $32.89 billion, up 18%, with book value per share of $151.21 and adjusted book value per share of $158.01. The company generated record operating cash flow of $10.61 billion in 2025. The catastrophe-light first quarter of 2026 produced net income per diluted share of $7.78 and a quarterly combined ratio of 88.6%.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers

Travelers' near-term earnings momentum rests on two reinforcing trends. The first is the rising yield on its investment portfolio: as older, lower-coupon bonds mature and are reinvested at today's higher rates, net investment income grows mechanically, independent of underwriting. The second is continued strong underwriting execution, with positive renewal premium change and high retention across Business Insurance, plus disciplined growth in Personal Insurance homeowners and auto.

Longer term, the company is investing more than $1.5 billion a year in artificial intelligence and other technology aimed at productivity, pricing precision and claims efficiency. Sustained premium growth, a stable-to-firm commercial pricing environment, and steady book-value compounding through retained earnings and buybacks are the levers most likely to drive value, balanced against the inherent year-to-year volatility of catastrophe losses.

8. Peer Comparison

9. Insider Activity

There has been no material insider open-market buying or selling at Travelers that would signal a directional view; recent insider activity is consistent with routine equity-compensation vesting, option exercises and related tax withholding by officers and directors. The company is led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Alan D. Schnitzer. Investors monitoring positioning should treat compensation-driven transactions as distinct from discretionary trades.

No material discretionary insider transactions were identified in public Form 4 filings for the period covered by this report. Routine equity-award and tax-withholding activity by management continued as normal.

10. Key Risks

• Catastrophe and weather volatility: Hurricanes, severe convective storms, wildfires and winter weather can cause large, unpredictable losses in any quarter, as the $761 million Q1 2026 catastrophe load illustrates.
• Loss-cost inflation: Rising costs for auto and property repair, medical care and litigation ("social inflation") can erode margins if pricing fails to keep pace.
• Reserve adequacy: Estimates for unpaid claims may prove insufficient; adverse reserve development would directly reduce earnings, removing a recent tailwind.
• Interest-rate and investment risk: Falling rates would slow the growth of net investment income, while credit losses or spread widening could impair the investment portfolio.
• Competitive and pricing-cycle pressure: Softening commercial rates and intense personal-lines competition from larger, data-driven insurers could compress growth and profitability.
• Regulatory and catastrophe-model risk: Insurance is heavily regulated at the state level, and changing rate-approval, climate and capital rules could affect pricing flexibility and returns.

11. Recent Developments

• 16 Apr 2026 — First-quarter 2026 results. Core income of $1.7 billion ($7.71 per diluted share) and net income of $7.78 per diluted share, with a combined ratio of 88.6% despite $761 million of catastrophe losses; the board raised the quarterly dividend 14% to $1.25 per share.
• 22 Apr 2026 — Dividend increase confirmed. The 14% dividend rise marked the 22nd consecutive year of increases, lifting the annualised payout to $5.00 per share.
• 20 Jan 2026 — Full-year 2025 results. Record net income of $6.29 billion, total revenues of $48.83 billion, a combined ratio of 89.9% and record operating cash flow of $10.61 billion; the board added $5.0 billion to the buyback authorisation.
• 16 Oct 2025 — Third-quarter 2025 results. Net income of $1.89 billion ($8.24 per diluted share) with a combined ratio of 87.3%, continuing a streak of strong underlying underwriting income.
• 15 Jul 2025 — Second-quarter 2025 results. Net income of $1.51 billion and record net written premiums of $11.54 billion as catastrophe losses eased from the wildfire-affected first quarter.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 17 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter 2026 results (approximate; to be confirmed by the company)
• Expected October 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 results
• Expected January 2027 — Full-year and fourth-quarter 2026 results
• 30 Jun 2026 — Payment date for the $1.25 quarterly dividend

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 11 June 2026

Prudential plc is a London- and Hong Kong-listed life and health insurer and asset manager focused entirely on Asia and Africa. The group sells protection, savings and retirement products across Greater China, ASEAN, India and Africa, and runs the Eastspring asset management business with $277.7 billion of funds under management. Its 2025 full year results, published on 18 March 2026, delivered double-digit growth across the company’s key metrics and an enlarged capital-return programme. This report sets out the facts an investor needs: how Prudential makes money, its financial track record under IFRS 17, raw valuation metrics, peers, insider activity and the key risks and dates ahead. You can follow the live price on our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Structural Asia and Africa demand: Prudential is a pure play on rising protection, retirement and wealth needs across Greater China, ASEAN, India and Africa, with top-three insurance positions in seven Asian and two African markets and growth delivered through all four quarters of 2025.
• Delivery against 2027 objectives: 2025 guidance was met in full — new business profit up 12% to $2,782m, adjusted operating EPS up 12% to 101.4 cents and operating free surplus generation up 15% to $3,059m — keeping the group on track for its 15–20% new business profit CAGR (2022–2027) and at least $4.4bn of operating free surplus generation in 2027.
• Enhanced capital returns: management expects to return more than $7bn to shareholders over 2024–2027; a $2bn buyback completed in 2025, a further $1.2bn buyback is running through 2026 and a $1.3bn capital return is expected in 2027, on top of a 2025 dividend up 15% to 26.60 cents.
• Balance sheet strength: S&P upgraded the financial strength rating of Prudential’s core entities to AA in March 2026; the GWS shareholder cover ratio stood at 262% and the free surplus ratio at 221% at end-2025, with modest group leverage of 13% (Moody’s basis).
• Momentum into 2026: the Q1 2026 update (29 April 2026) showed new business profit up a further 10% to $686m with growth in every segment and double-digit gains in Hong Kong, Mainland China and Malaysia.

Bear Case

• Hong Kong and Greater China concentration: Hong Kong alone generated $12,988m of FY2025 total revenue (≈47% of the group total) and $1,219m of segment profit, so any deterioration in Mainland Chinese visitor flows, Hong Kong market conditions or China’s economy would hit the group disproportionately.
• IFRS earnings volatility: reported profit swings with markets — the group recorded a $997m IFRS loss in 2022 and only $182m of first-half profit in 2024 before 2025’s $4,119m profit, which itself included a one-off $1,515m gain from corporate transactions (largely the ICICI Prudential AMC IPO).
• Regulatory and geopolitical exposure: the group is supervised by the Hong Kong Insurance Authority and operates across markets with shifting rules — heightened supervision of Malaysian medical insurance repricing, Indonesia’s OJK roadmap and new capital standards in Taiwan all feature in management’s own risk disclosures, alongside US–China and broader geopolitical tension.
• Asset management softness: Eastspring’s funds under management fell from $277.7bn at end-2025 to $268.9bn at 31 March 2026 on adverse market and FX movements, and asset management remains a small profit contributor ($329m of FY2025 segment profit).
• Currency mismatch: results are reported in US dollars while earnings arise in Asian and African currencies, so a strong dollar mechanically deflates reported growth.

3. Business Segments

Prudential manages the business by market, with the Eastspring asset management arm reported as its own segment. The split below uses FY2025 IFRS total revenue of $27,755m (insurance revenue plus investment return plus other revenue, after eliminations and central items of –$241m).

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Prudential collects regular premiums on long-duration life and health policies and invests the float until claims fall due. Under IFRS 17 the profit emerges over the life of each policy as the contractual service margin is released, supplemented by investment returns on shareholder assets and fee income from Eastspring. New business is measured by APE sales ($6,661m in 2025, up 6%) and the value it creates by new business profit ($2,782m on a traditional embedded value basis). Cash emerges as operating free surplus from the in-force book ($3,059m in 2025), which funds new business strain, the dividend and buybacks.

The moat. A 178-year-old brand, top-three market positions in nine markets, and a multi-channel distribution machine that competitors cannot quickly replicate: a professionalised tied-agency force and exclusive bancassurance partnerships (including Standard Chartered and UOB) across Asia and Africa. Licences in markets such as Mainland China (via the CITIC Prudential JV) and India (via ICICI Prudential) are scarce assets. Scale in health and protection gives pricing and claims data advantages, and Eastspring adds vertically integrated asset management with top-ten positions in six of its markets.

Capital framework. The group runs a disciplined capital allocation model: free surplus above a 175–200% operating range is returned to shareholders, which underpins the $7bn+ 2024–2027 capital-return expectation and the growing dividend (target of growing dividend per share broadly in line with operating free surplus generation).

5. Financial Health

Figures below are from Prudential’s IFRS consolidated financial statements and full year financial supplements (all in US dollars; IFRS 17 basis from 2022 onwards). Total revenue is the sum of insurance revenue, investment return and other revenue as presented in note B1.4 of the accounts. 2022 comparatives reflect the IFRS 17 restatement.

Reported IFRS revenue swings with mark-to-market investment returns (most of which are matched by policyholder liability movements), so the steadier indicators are adjusted operating profit ($2,722m in 2022, $2,893m in 2023, $3,129m in 2024 and $3,306m in 2025) and adjusted operating EPS, which has compounded from 79.4 cents to 101.4 cents over the same period. Long-term debt is the group’s core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed businesses. Net cash flows from operating activities were $2,450m in 2025 (2024: $3,609m); cash and cash equivalents ended 2025 at $7,706m, and IFRS shareholders’ equity rose 15% to $20,117m.

Prudential reports half-yearly. The split of FY2025 is shown below (H2 derived as full year minus H1).

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers

Health and protection gap. Out-of-pocket medical spending across Asia remains among the highest in the world, and insurance penetration in markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and India is a fraction of developed-market levels. Prudential is extending standalone health products and repricing medical books to capture this structurally growing demand.

Agency and bancassurance productivity. The strategy launched in 2023 focuses on professionalising the agency force (quality recruitment, digital tools, higher activation) and deepening bank partnerships, including training programmes with partners such as SCB in Thailand. Q1 2026 showed margin expansion in Hong Kong across both channels.

India and China optionality. The 26% stake in ICICI Prudential Life and the listed ICICI Prudential Asset Management stake (post-IPO), plus the CITIC Prudential JV in Mainland China, give exposure to two of the largest long-term savings pools in the world.

Capital returns as a compounding lever. The 2026 buyback of $1.2bn (about 4% of the market cap at current prices) and the expected $1.3bn return in 2027 reduce the share count while the business grows, mechanically lifting per-share metrics — weighted average shares already fell from 2,715m in 2024 to 2,580m in 2025.

8. Peer Comparison

Prudential’s closest pure-Asia comparator is AIA; the Canadian groups Manulife and Sun Life have large Asian franchises alongside North American businesses.

9. Insider Activity

Recent PDMR (director) dealings disclosed via RNS in 2026 are dominated by incentive-plan vesting and awards to CEO Anil Wadhwani; there have been no material open-market sales disclosed by the Chief Executive in recent months.

10. Key Risks

• Greater China macro and geopolitical risk: Hong Kong is roughly half of group revenue and the largest profit pool; a Chinese economic downturn, fewer Mainland visitor sales or escalation in US–China tension would directly hit new business and asset values.
• Market and interest-rate volatility: IFRS results, solvency cover (GWS ratio 262% at end-2025, down 18ppts year on year) and Eastspring FUM all move with equity and bond markets, as the Q1 2026 FUM decline showed.
• Regulatory tightening: Prudential is an Internationally Active Insurance Group supervised by the Hong Kong IA; live regulatory themes include Malaysian medical-insurance repricing supervision, Indonesia’s OJK roadmap, Taiwan’s new Insurance Capital Standard (from January 2026) and evolving rules in Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
• Currency translation: earnings arise in HKD, SGD, MYR, IDR, INR and other currencies but are reported in USD; adverse FX shaved growth rates in 2025 (5% CER vs 6% AER adjusted operating profit growth).
• Competitive intensity: AIA, Manulife, Sun Life, FWD and strong local players compete for agents, bank partnerships and customers in every key market, pressuring margins and distribution costs.
• Execution and transformation risk: the strategy depends on multi-year technology modernisation, agency professionalisation and health-business build-out; management’s own disclosures flag the risk that transformation projects fail to deliver on time.
• Catastrophe, health and climate shocks: pandemics, natural catastrophes and climate transition effects could raise claims and impair investment assets.

11. Recent Developments

• 09 Jun 2026 — 2026 buyback continues. Prudential repurchased a further 418,725 shares for cancellation at prices between £9.19 and £9.67, part of the $1.2bn programme launched in January 2026; roughly 20 million shares ($312m) had already been bought back in Q1 2026.
• 03 Jun 2026 — CEO receives 419,318-share LTIP award. Anil Wadhwani was granted a Long Term Incentive Plan award at a reference price of HK$113.13, releasable in June 2029 subject to performance conditions, following the vesting of 256,093 shares on 1 June.
• 29 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 business update: new business profit up 10%. New business profit rose 10% at constant FX to $686m with growth in every segment; APE sales rose 6% to $1,823m and new business margin improved 2ppts to 38%. Eastspring FUM eased to $268.9bn on market volatility.
• 18 Mar 2026 — FY2025 results: double-digit growth and bigger capital returns. New business profit up 12% to $2,782m, adjusted operating EPS up 12% to 101.4¢, dividend up 15% to 26.60¢, a new $1.2bn buyback for 2026 and an expected $1.3bn capital return in 2027; S&P upgraded core entities to AA. The group also raised its Malaysian conventional business stake to 70% in early 2026.

12. Key Dates

• Expected Aug 2026 — Half-year 2026 results (the 2025 half-year results were released on 27 August 2025; date to be confirmed on the company’s financial calendar)
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 business performance update
• Expected Dec 2026 — completion of the $1.2bn 2026 share buyback programme (running through the course of 2026)
• Expected 2027 — $1.3bn capital return comprising recurring returns and ICICI Prudential AMC IPO net proceeds

Macro events that move insurers — Fed and BoE rate decisions, China data releases — can be tracked on our Economic Calendar, and you can discuss Prudential with other investors on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 11 June 2026

3i Group plc is a FTSE 100 investment company that invests its own balance-sheet capital in private equity and infrastructure. Its defining position is a 65.4% stake in Action, the Dutch-headquartered European non-food discount retailer, valued at £23.7 billion at 31 March 2026 — roughly three quarters of 3i’s net asset value. The FY2026 results (published 14 May 2026) delivered a 22% total return and a NAV of 3,030 pence per share, yet the shares have more than halved from their October 2025 peak as Action’s like-for-like sales growth slowed, swinging the stock from a long-standing premium to NAV to a wide discount and prompting 3i’s first buyback in two decades. You can follow the live price on our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Action’s compounding machine: Action generated a gross investment return of £4,510m (25% on opening value) in FY2026, grew 2025 net sales 16% and EBITDA 14%, and retains a powerful multi-year store roll-out runway across Europe — with 69 new stores already opened in 2026 year to date and a planned US entry extending the white space.
• Consistent double-digit NAV compounding: total returns of 36% (FY2023), 23% (FY2024), 25% (FY2025) and 22% (FY2026) have compounded NAV per share from 1,745p to 3,030p in three years, comfortably above 3i’s 15% through-the-cycle target.
• Deep discount plus first buyback since 2005: at ≈2,187p the shares trade roughly 28% below the 3,030p NAV, and the board has responded with a £750m buyback to be completed before 31 December 2026 — buying assets at a discount with the CEO personally purchasing £1.1m of shares in May 2026.
• Conservative balance sheet and cash generation: gearing was just 2% at year end (net debt £547m), liquidity stood at £1,864m, and the group received £1.9bn of portfolio cash proceeds in FY2026, including realisations of MPM and MAIT at money multiples above the 2x target and Action dividends.

Bear Case

• Extreme single-asset concentration: Action represents about 74% of NAV, so 3i is effectively a leveraged bet on one discount retailer; any stumble in Action’s growth, margins or valuation multiple dominates everything else in the portfolio.
• Action’s like-for-like slowdown: year-to-date LFL sales growth was 2.4% at week 19 of 2026 against 6.8% a year earlier, with flat trading in France and Germany; the update triggered the sharpest one-day fall in 3i shares on record on results day.
• Valuation scepticism and discount risk: the market has moved from pricing 3i at a ≈48% premium to NAV (4,497p high) to a ≈28% discount, signalling doubt about the private valuation multiple applied to Action; if scepticism persists the discount can stay wide regardless of NAV growth.
• US expansion execution risk: investors reacted poorly in March 2026 to Action’s planned US entry, which brings currency, supply-chain and competitive risks (dollar stores, Walmart) outside Action’s proven European playbook.

3. Business Segments

3i invests proprietary capital — it does not primarily manage third-party funds. The split below uses the FY2026 gross investment return (GIR) of £5,464m as the revenue analogue.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. 3i invests its own permanent balance-sheet capital and earns returns through value growth, dividends and interest on portfolio companies — reported as gross investment return — plus fee income from managing 3i Infrastructure and related funds. Unlike conventional private equity firms it does not depend on raising external buyout funds, so it pays no carry away and faces no fundraising cycle; cash from realisations and portfolio dividends (£1.9bn in FY2026) is recycled into new investment, the dividend (84.5p for FY2026) and now a £750m buyback.

The moat. Permanent capital allows 3i to hold winners indefinitely — it has compounded Action since 2011 rather than selling it to crystallise carry, something fund-based rivals cannot easily replicate. The group runs with a famously lean team (≈220 staff), an operating cost base of £135m against a £31.8bn portfolio, and 2% gearing, making the model unusually scalable and the costs negligible relative to NAV.

Capital discipline. Investment is selective (£907m cash invested in FY2026, against £1,517m of realised proceeds); the dividend policy aims to maintain or grow the payout each year, and the new buyback adds a second return channel when the shares trade below NAV.

5. Financial Health

Figures below are from 3i’s audited results announcements for the years to 31 March (Investment basis). As an investment company 3i’s “revenue” is its gross investment return (GIR): realised and unrealised value movements plus portfolio income. GAAP EPS is basic earnings per share (total comprehensive income basis); 3i does not report an adjusted EPS measure — its headline per-share KPI is NAV per share, which ended FY2026 at 3,030p (FY2023: 1,745p; FY2024: 2,085p; FY2025: 2,542p). Long-term debt is gross borrowings at year end.

The balance sheet remains conservative: net debt of £547m at 31 March 2026 (gearing 2% of net assets), liquidity of £1,864m and an operating cash profit of £276m (FY2025: £469m, the decline reflecting the timing of Action dividends — a further ≈£255m Action dividend was approved for receipt by the end of May 2026). Total dividends have grown from 53.0p to 84.5p in three years, a ≈17% compound rate.

3i reports half-yearly. The split of FY2026 is shown below (H2 derived as full year minus H1).

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers

Action’s store roll-out. Action’s growth algorithm combines new stores (69 opened in 2026 year to date, with management citing significant remaining white space across Europe) with like-for-like growth and margin leverage; first-three-period 2026 net sales rose to €4,010m from €3,521m a year earlier with operating EBITDA of €498m.

US market entry. Action plans to enter the United States, a step-change in the addressable market for the format — high potential reward, though it is also a key execution risk the market is currently discounting.

Broader Private Equity portfolio. Royal Sanders delivered another year of robust growth, standout performers sit in the consumer and private-label sector, and realisations (MPM, MAIT at >2x money multiples) recycle capital into new platforms.

Buyback at a discount. The £750m buyback retires shares at ≈0.7x NAV, mechanically accreting NAV per share for remaining holders, and the second FY2026 dividend of 48.0p (payable July 2026) continues a progressive payout.

8. Peer Comparison

No listed peer shares 3i’s proprietary-capital, single-asset-heavy model; the closest comparators are listed European private-markets groups.

9. Insider Activity

Director dealings in 2026 have been notable open-market purchases by the Chief Executive into share-price weakness, disclosed via RNS.

10. Key Risks

• Action concentration: ≈74% of NAV sits in one private retailer; a sustained deterioration in Action’s growth or profitability, or a cut to the earnings multiple used in its valuation, would directly and materially reduce 3i’s NAV.
• European consumer weakness: Action’s 2026 LFL growth has slowed to 2.4% year to date, with flat performance in France and Germany amid consumer caution and the fallout from the Middle East conflict; cooler weather has also hurt seasonal categories.
• Private valuation risk: Action is valued by 3i using private-market methodology; the share-price discount to NAV indicates the listed market currently applies a haircut to that valuation, and an eventual monetisation below carrying value cannot be ruled out.
• US expansion execution: entering the US exposes Action to entrenched discount competitors, different supply chains and tariff/geopolitical frictions, with the investment phase likely to weigh on near-term cash generation.
• Macro and FX exposure: portfolio earnings are largely in euros while 3i reports in sterling (FY2026 included a 77p per-share FX translation gain that can reverse), and management itself expects inflation to rise in the coming months on geopolitical disruption.
• Key-person and team risk: an unusually small team and a long-tenured CEO (since 2012) concentrate decision-making; succession or departures could unsettle the investment approach.

11. Recent Developments

• 21 May 2026 — CEO buys £1.1m of shares. Simon Borrows purchased 50,000 shares at £22.2863 on the London Stock Exchange, his second significant purchase of 2026, after the post-results sell-off.
• 14 May 2026 — FY2026 results: strong NAV growth, but shares plunge on Action slowdown. 3i reported a 22% total return, NAV of 3,030p (+19%) and a total dividend of 84.5p (+16%), and announced a £750m buyback — its first since 2005. The shares nonetheless fell by double digits on the day as Action’s week-19 year-to-date LFL growth of 2.4% (vs 6.8% a year earlier) disappointed, leaving the stock at a wide discount to NAV.
• 26 Mar 2026 — CEO and family trusts buy 350,147 shares. Simon Borrows and associated family trusts bought ≈£8.9m of stock at £25.55 following the March sell-off that accompanied Action’s US-entry announcement and capital markets seminar.

12. Key Dates

• 18 Jun 2026 — ex-dividend date for the second FY2026 dividend of 48.0p per share (record date 19 June 2026)
• 23 Jul 2026 — Q1 FY2027 performance update (per 3i’s financial calendar)
• 24 Jul 2026 — payment of the second FY2026 dividend of 48.0p, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM
• Expected Nov 2026 — half-year FY2027 results (the FY2026 half-year results were released on 13 November 2025)
• 31 Dec 2026 — targeted completion date for the £750m share buyback programme

Macro events relevant to a consumer-exposed portfolio — eurozone inflation prints, ECB decisions and retail sales data — can be tracked on our Economic Calendar, and you can discuss 3i Group with other investors on the ChartsView Forum.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 June 2026

M&G plc is a FTSE 100 international savings and investment group, managing £375.9 billion of assets for around 4.2 million retail clients and more than 1,000 institutional clients across 38 offices worldwide. Demerged from Prudential plc in October 2019, the group combines a global asset manager (M&G Investments) with a large UK life and savings business built around PruFund, annuities and traditional with-profits. In 2025 it returned its open business to strong net inflows, signed a landmark strategic partnership with Japan's Dai-ichi Life, and lifted its dividend for a sixth consecutive year. You can track the share price live on our Live Charts page, see upcoming macro events on the Economic Calendar, and discuss the stock in the Forum.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Flows have decisively turned: Net inflows from open business hit £7.8bn in 2025 against a £1.9bn outflow in 2024 — a near £10bn swing — with Asset Management taking in £7.0bn from external clients (4.4% of opening AUMA) and PruFund back in sustained net inflows since mid-2025.
• Dai-ichi Life partnership: Japan's Dai-ichi Life HD has built a ~15% stake (announced May 2025) to become M&G's largest shareholder, made M&G its preferred European asset manager, and is expected to deliver at least US$6bn of new business flows over five years; £0.4bn had already arrived within seven months.
• Capital strength and income: The shareholder Solvency II ratio rose to 242% (from 223%), and the 20.5p dividend — a ~6.5% yield — is backed by a progressive policy and £765m of operating capital generation in 2025, on track for the £2.7bn 2025–27 cumulative OCG target (before new business strain).
• Growing annuity engine: Bulk purchase annuity volumes rose 65% to £1.5bn across 11 transactions in 2025, and the new With-Profits BPA proposition completed its first deal in Q1 2026, opening a differentiated growth avenue in a structurally attractive UK pension risk transfer market.
• Cost discipline delivered: The transformation programme beat its upgraded target with £250m of cost savings, the Asset Management cost-to-income ratio improved from 76% to 75%, and management targets 70% by end-2027 with a meaningful acceleration in AOP growth guided for 2026.

Bear Case

• Profit growth still flat: Adjusted operating profit was £838m in 2025 versus £837m in 2024 and £797m in 2023 — the promised "meaningful acceleration" remains a forecast, with lower performance fees, soft investment income and a widening £206m corporate centre loss offsetting growth in Life and fee-based earnings.
• Ground-rent legislation overhang: The UK draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill (January 2026) proposes capping residential ground rents; M&G held £932m of ground-rent-backed loans at end-2025 and estimated a scenario impact of roughly £325m on IFRS profit before tax, with secondary legislation still to come.
• Legacy book drag: The Heritage business and parts of the traditional with-profits and shareholder annuity books are in structural run-off, while PruFund only returned to inflows in the second half of 2025 after years of UK retail outflows — momentum that still has to prove durable.
• Market and rate sensitivity: Earnings, AUMA and solvency are geared to equity, credit and gilt markets; IFRS results have swung from a £2,055m restated loss (2022) to modest profits, operating capital generation fell 18% in 2025 on higher new business strain, and lower short-term rates are already squeezing investment income.

3. Business Segments

M&G reports through three segments: Asset Management, Life and Corporate Centre. The percentages below are each segment's share of FY2025 revenue as defined in Section 5 (insurance revenue plus fee and other income of £5,564m); adjusted operating profit (AOP) contributions are shown in the description.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. M&G earns fee income on £375.9bn of assets under management and administration, insurance margins on annuities and with-profits business, and shareholder transfers from the With-Profits Fund. The Life book throws off predictable IFRS 17 earnings as the £6.6bn contractual service margin amortises into profit, while Asset Management adds ad-valorem management fees and performance fees. This "asset manager plus asset owner" combination means internal insurance assets seed and scale investment strategies that are then sold externally.

Unit economics. Asset Management earns recurring revenues of around £1.1bn a year on roughly £250bn of third-party and internal mandates at a 75% cost-to-income ratio, while Life converts long-dated liabilities into operating capital generation (£765m in 2025) that funds the dividend. New bulk annuity business consumes capital up front (£163m strain in 2025) but locks in decades of future profit.

Moat. The PruFund franchise — a smoothed multi-asset proposition distributed through UK advisers — has no direct like-for-like competitor at scale, and the With-Profits Fund's mutualised capital base enables products (including the new With-Profits BPA) that rivals find hard to replicate. Add 175 years of brand heritage, a 242% Solvency II ratio and the Dai-ichi distribution channel, and M&G's competitive position rests on captive assets, distribution reach and balance-sheet flexibility rather than pure investment performance.

5. Financial Health

All figures are taken from M&G's full-year results announcements and Annual Report and Accounts. "Revenue" is defined as insurance revenue plus fee income and other income under IFRS 17 — the lines that drive operating earnings — and excludes volatile investment return, which is largely offset by policyholder liability movements. M&G adopted IFRS 17 from 2023 (2022 restated); 2021 was reported under IFRS 4 and 2022's restated income statement lines are not directly comparable, so those revenue cells are marked n/m. The comparable adjusted operating profit series was: 2021 £721m, 2022 £625m (restated), 2023 £797m, 2024 £837m, 2025 £838m. AUMA was £370.0bn (2021), £342.0bn (2022), £343.5bn (2023), £345.9bn (2024) and £375.9bn (2025). M&G does not publish an adjusted EPS measure, so that column is shown as —.

The 2024 GAAP loss of (15.1)p reflected adverse short-term investment fluctuations and IFRS 17 measurement mismatches rather than operating weakness; 2025's £314m IFRS profit after tax marked a clean swing back. The 2022 restated IFRS loss after tax was £2,055m (gilt-crisis driven), so its GAAP EPS is omitted. Subordinated notes stood at £3,118m at end-2025 after the £461m of redemptions and repurchases completed in 2024; total "subordinated liabilities and other borrowings" on the balance sheet was £6,519m, the difference being operational borrowings largely within consolidated investment vehicles.

M&G reports semi-annually, so the table below shows half-year periods, most recent first. H2 figures are derived as full-year minus first-half disclosures.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers

Three engines underpin the growth case. First, the Dai-ichi Life partnership: as preferred European asset manager for one of Japan's largest insurers, M&G expects at least US$6bn of new business flows over five years, accelerating an international expansion that already lifted non-UK third-party assets from £89bn to £107bn during 2025. Second, the UK pension risk transfer market: BPA volumes rose 65% to £1.5bn in 2025 and the unique With-Profits BPA proposition — which uses the mutualised With-Profits Fund to write bulk annuities at lower shareholder capital strain — completed its first transaction in Q1 2026, giving M&G a differentiated wedge into a market running at tens of billions of pounds a year. Third, the retail revival: PruFund returned to sustained net inflows in the last seven months of 2025, a fixed-term annuity product broadened the retail offer, and the £70bn PruFund range was added to the Scottish Widows Platform in June 2026, materially widening adviser distribution.

Management has set hard targets against these drivers: at least 5% average annual AOP growth over 2025–2027 (with 2026 guided to accelerate meaningfully), a 70% Asset Management cost-to-income ratio by end-2027, and £2.7bn of cumulative operating capital generation before new business strain. Private markets (over £70bn of AUMA) and the 2025 acquisition-led build-out of impact and infrastructure capabilities add a higher-fee mix shift on top.

8. Peer Comparison

M&G sits between the UK life consolidators and the pure asset managers, so both groups are relevant comparators.

9. Insider Activity

M&G's executive team is led by Group Chief Executive Officer Andrea Rossi and CFO Kathryn McLeland. Recent Form-equivalent UK PDMR disclosures (RNS) show modest buying and dividend reinvestment rather than selling:

No significant open-market disposals by the CEO or other board members have been disclosed in 2026 to date. Dai-ichi Life HD's ~15% strategic stake, built through on-market purchases since May 2025, is the dominant change on the share register.

10. Key Risks

• Ground-rent reform (Regulatory): The draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill published on 27 January 2026 proposes capping residential ground rents at £250 a year from 2028, falling to a peppercorn over 40 years. M&G held £932m of ground-rent-backed private placement loans at end-2025 (£641m in the shareholder business) and estimated a combined scenario impact of roughly £325m on IFRS profit before tax; final secondary legislation could land better or worse than assumed.
• Market sensitivity (Market): Fee income moves with AUMA and insurance results move with credit spreads, equity markets and gilt yields. The restated £2,055m IFRS loss of 2022 shows how violently reported results can swing in a rates shock, even when operating profit holds up.
• Interest-rate squeeze (Financial): Lower short-term rates cut investment income in both Asset Management and the Corporate Centre in 2025, widening the centre's loss to £206m; further rate cuts would extend that drag while also affecting annuity pricing.
• Legacy run-off and flow durability (Operational): Heritage and parts of the with-profits book are shrinking by design, and PruFund's return to inflows is only months old; renewed UK retail outflows would undermine both fee income and the With-Profits Fund's capacity to support new propositions.
• Execution on targets (Execution): AOP has been essentially flat for two years; hitting "meaningful acceleration" in 2026, the 70% cost-to-income target and £2.7bn cumulative OCG depends on sustained inflows, BPA capacity and cost control all landing at once. Operating capital generation already fell 18% in 2025 on new business strain.
• Competitive intensity (Competition): UK bulk annuities attract deep-pocketed competitors (L&G, Aviva, Standard Life/Phoenix, Rothesay, PIC) and active asset management remains under structural fee pressure from passives, which could erode the 33bps-area fee margins that underpin Asset Management earnings.

11. Recent Developments

• 8 Jun 2026 — PruFund added to Scottish Widows Platform. M&G announced that its ~£70bn PruFund range is being made available through the Scottish Widows Platform, a significant widening of adviser distribution for its flagship smoothed-return proposition.
• 22 May 2026 — Board-level share purchase. Independent non-executive director Elisabeth Stheeman bought 3,150 M&G shares at £3.145, a small but incrementally positive insider signal disclosed via RNS.
• 6 May 2026 — Q1 2026 trading update. Net inflows from open business of £0.6bn (Q1 2025: £0.1bn outflow), AUMA resilient at £371bn, Asset Management inflows of £0.7bn led by Wholesale, and the first With-Profits BPA transaction (£0.3bn) completed; PruFund saw small £0.1bn outflows that management said stabilised in April.
• 30 Apr 2026 — AGM and final 2025 dividend. M&G held its AGM in London and paid the 13.8p second interim dividend on 30 April, taking the full 2025 payout to 20.5p per share, up 2%.
• 12 Mar 2026 — Full Year 2025 results. AOP of £838m, IFRS profit after tax of £314m (2024: £347m loss), net open-business inflows of £7.8bn, Solvency II at 242% and dividend up 2% to 20.5p; management reiterated all 2025–2027 targets and guided to a meaningful AOP acceleration in 2026.
• 27 Jan 2026 — Draft ground-rent reform bill published. The UK Government's draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill introduced proposals that would reduce cashflows from M&G's £932m residential ground-rent-backed loan portfolio, flagged as a post-balance-sheet event in the 2025 accounts with an estimated ~£325m scenario impact on IFRS profit before tax.

12. Key Dates

• 3 Sep 2026 — Half Year 2026 results (first read on the guided 2026 AOP acceleration and PruFund flow momentum)
• Expected September 2026 — 2026 first interim dividend ex-dividend and record dates (September pattern in recent years), with payment expected in October 2026
• 5 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 trading update (AUMA and flows)
• Expected March 2027 — Full Year 2026 results, the key test of the 2025–2027 targets of ≥5% average annual AOP growth and progress toward the 70% cost-to-income ratio

Cross-check these against wider market events on our Economic Calendar.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.