DOW

Normally 61.8 fibs will contain the move but once that gets taken out and it hits the 76.4 fib level then that normally signals a full corrections to the trend prior ...I’ve seen this happen loads of times in the past so hence why I suspect a full move back up....I must say thou, on paper it should be heading down big time as common sence says it should...lol...There is so much manipulation going on so you just have to follow the charts and right now it’s bullish...
I will still look to short myself if I see a reversal but it won’t be with big shorts again as this market has been deadly to shorts recently..

If a second wave happens with regards to coronavirus then you can see the markets visiting the lows again...
Right now it’s all about the virus and how it plays out...

remo wrote: The fact that the 76.4 % fib has crossed imply the Dow will head to new highs soon...
So be really careful with shorts .
You need lower lows to start going short...
I’m fully invested currently but will keep a close eye on them....

Well, i don't mind saying, I'm side stepping this. I know my own limitations, and this market is a bit too complicated (for a lack of a better word!) for me.

And, the more i study it, or try to - the more confused I become.

The fact that the 76.4 % fib has crossed imply the Dow will head to new highs soon...
So be really careful with shorts .
You need lower lows to start going short...
I’m fully invested currently but will keep a close eye on them....

DOW fibs

www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/...lassification-error/

Looks like the Unemployment figures were subject to a "missclassification error" the classification of people who disengaged from looking for work, due to safety concerns (upto 6 million of them) were misreported as being not unemployed. Oh my Mr Trump...to stoop so low is criminal

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.
“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
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Some took this as a sign that President Trump or one of his staffers may have tinkered with the data to make it look better, especially since most forecasters predicted the unemployment rate would be close to 20 percent in May, up from 14.7 percent in April. But economists and former BLS leaders from across the political spectrum strongly dismissed that idea.
“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”
Economists say the BLS was trying to be as transparent as possible about how hard it is to collect real-time data during a pandemic. The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporarily unemployed” during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons.”
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The “other reason” category is normally used for people on vacation, serving jury duty or taking leave to care for a child or relative. These are typically situations where the worker decides to take leave. But in this unusual pandemic circumstance, the “other reason” category was applied to some people staying at home and waiting to be called back.
U.S. economy gains 2.5 million jobs in May
The Department of Labor said June 5 that the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped from 14.7 in April to 13.3 percent. (Reuters)
This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.
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The unemployment rate comes from a survey where Census workers ask about 60,000 households questions about whether they are working or looking for a job the week of May 10 to 16.
One of the first questions that gets asked is did the person do any work “for pay or profit?” There are then 45 pages of follow up questions that come after that. One of those questions asks if someone was “temporarily absent” from the job and why that absence occurred. One of the responses is “other.”
The BLS instructed surveyors to try to figure out if someone was absent because of the pandemic and, if so, to classify them as on “temporary layoff,” meaning they would count in the unemployment data. But some people continued to insist they were just “absent” from work during the pandemic, and the BLS has a policy of not changing people’s answers once they are recorded. It’s how the BLS protects again bias or data manipulation.
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Former staffers said it’s unusual that the BLS was not able to correct this problem faster.
The U.S. economic slide is likely bottoming out, but a recovery could take years
“It’s surprising the BLS couldn’t come up with fixes to make this work in May,” said Erica Groshen, the former BLS commissioner under Obama. But, she adds, “This is a very unusual situation. There are lots of field staff who had a tried and true way of asking questions and they were doing what they were used to doing.”
The only political appointee at the BLS is the commissioner, who, Groshen said, does not have access to the data and only sees the finalized report.
“The commissioner never sees the job report before it is final. As commissioner, I did not have access to the underlying data,” Groshen said. “This is a highly automated process.”
Instead of focusing on possible Trump interference, many economists wish people would focus on the fact that 21 million Americans are currently unemployed and over 2 million have permanently lost their jobs.
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The situation remains dire, they say, even after a few jobs returned in May as the economy reopened.

Dow has made lower low on the short term chart...
It has jumped a tad from that l/low but I think this shall drop in the last hour...

In hindsight I went short to early today... should have waited until now...

Let’s see... how it goes...
Atb
Trendfriend.