DOW

Interesting development here, but this could be a simple range-bound pullback (energy), before giving another high a go.

I'd like to see the Dow (obviously the SPX too!) retreat further say, south of 25,840 before I'd say that a correction is in place.

See how we're all coming up with different numbers

The anticipated top (Fib 100%) may be stalled by the fact that everyone was expecting it to happen as a formality.

Now, the market is forward thinking obviously, so they aren't too bothered with what's happening now. However, what's happening now could set the tone for what might happen later:

1. Inequality protests and riots may a) create the envirnoment for a second wave, and b) impact consumer and desire / confidence (not just from covid, but from CS gas or a brick to the head - anything is possible); c) speaking of consumre confidence, how long is the Treasury and Fed going to keep paying "wages" for the soon to be unemployed?

2. Chairman Mao, excuse me, Chairman Powell, said that we'll have zero rates until 2023, that means forever, which could be mean asset bubbles - but market forces will tell you that you can't inflate insolvent and bankrupt companies forever (or who knows right!)

3. Upcoming US Elections vs International Relations - Tried gaming this one, and decided to have a lie down as my head really hurt (or maybe that just a horse or tear gas can or a brick that hit me!)

Irrational exuberance & Moral Hazard - may be terms that we be heard more frequently.... Hell, maybe they need to be redefined when kids with a gambling tendency are buying Bankrupt shares like Hertz using fractional facilities offered by brokers (book-keepers) - when sports come back, that money could find another place

Be safe people - we're all watching this move closely to see if it's genuine or simply profit taking / coiling the spring before the next move up.

I see two scenarios from here, as remo was saying dow can visit high again then we are in wave 4 now and one more push higher can happen before larger correction,




already at 23% fib

if its wave for then similar pattern can occur

Wow... huge gap down down looks on today....
Watch 26383 for a island reversal....

If it does happen then it’s clear technical signal for further downside imvho....

atb
Trendfriend

dow- daily next targets on this chart
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ru3L1a95SoA9zfTzI%3D

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...XuvF1jIWnD6oX7PxM%3D

can see from here when the rsi goes 70 or above we get a decent p/b.
not in this atm....but this should be a small p/b to let the overheated rsi cool off a tad....before more pump upwards imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

8:15 am: Bank of America clients sold stocks last week
Bank of America Securities clients sold $3.2 billion in U.S. equities last week while the S&P 500 gained nearly 5%. The clients bought ETFs and sold single stocks for the fifth straight week. “Selling was broad-based across client groups, where hedge funds and retail clients have been sellers for the last eight and five consecutive weeks, respectively,” Bank of America equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said in a note. “Financials led the outflows last week with its second-largest selling in our data history since 2008 — consistent with the record low investor positioning.” — Fitzgerald

remo wrote: Normally 61.8 fibs will contain the move but once that gets taken out and it hits the 76.4 fib level then that normally signals a full corrections to the trend prior ...I’ve seen this happen loads of times in the past so hence why I suspect a full move back up....I must say thou, on paper it should be heading down big time as common sence says it should...lol...There is so much manipulation going on so you just have to follow the charts and right now it’s bullish...
I will still look to short myself if I see a reversal but it won’t be with big shorts again as this market has been deadly to shorts recently..

If a second wave happens with regards to coronavirus then you can see the markets visiting the lows again...
Right now it’s all about the virus and how it plays out...

Hi Remo,

Thank you for the above (hope you and the family are well).

i've been reading about this, and indeed 76.4 doesn't really hold much weight compared with 61.8; here's the thing - does anything work right now with all the intervention? Technical Analysis still works obviously - like musical notes someone once said - but for me, it works for the short (ultra short term due to much intervention).

I can't say that I walked away unscathed either - it's just part and parcel!

I would however say that there's a lot of "air" underneath this rapid move up. (and forgive me, will need to get a chart - but are there island reversals patterns again? it looks like it).

Anyway, back to the point on "air" underneath - without structure, surely - intervention or not, the market needs to revert to the mean.

Will keep powder dry - but as i type, the Dow (futures) is down 300 points - could be something could be nothing.