DOW

screencast.com/t/kQtaOqzda3




So, where will it turn??

Equal legs from the low at 10404 and it could run all the way up to 14,969; 76.4% would see it to 14,277.
If we are looking for an expansion from the wave (A) from 12,035 then 100% brings us to 14,098, very close to the all-time high?
The best scenario? For me, maybe wait for 5 swings back on the 15minute chart before getting involved: catching this top could burn the fingers and it has a long way to fall.....

I'm also pretty sure, given the recent strength of the market and the importance and widely known nature of this level (plus the fact that it's only the Dow's all time high, not the S&P500's or the FTSE's), that there'll be some stop loss hunting.

It could overshoot by quite a few pips.

You're not alone remo though I'm going to be disciplined and not get carried away.

I've been reading Market Wizards by Jack Schwager recently. IIRC Paul Tudor Jones was short 2000 full S&P contracts when the US opened on Monday 19th Oct 1987 By the end of the day he had closed and was long.

I think I'll probably go in a bit smaller than that LOLOL!

The dow is only 250 points away from the best shorting zone possible
This is my count down
Im actually waiting patiently for that level to get hit so i can short it back down to the bottom of the ocean. Obviously i will be using my 40 point stops during market hours only.
This is one trade that im looking forward to.
Knowing my luck it will bail me out then smile at me and show the 2 fingers up at me. and then drop back down then back up to suck in more people then yoyo around then drop.
If its the real deal it should reverse fast of this zone.

The dow is approaching its all time high. This level is an important level as everyone knows

that this is the highest the dow has ever reached. I would be very surprised if the high got

taken out on the first attempt , so for this reason i would short the dow at 14198 with a

40 point stop during market hours only. I wont short this level if the dow closes very near

to this level from the previous day. The attempt should be from a far away like 100 points

away. When ever it closes near a major resistance then the chances of a breakout are

higher so hence why this trade should be done from a far away basis only.

Another reason for the short is due to the double top possibility. When ever i see a share or

index approach a double top scenario i always short on first attempt. I always prefer a

double top short if the time since the last high is over a year ago or more. This way the high

means more. Just my personal feeling.

The reason it should be from first attempt only is due to all the shorts lined up at or near that

level.Its a well known level so its gonna put up a fight. If it pushes back on the first attempt

then it re-tries again on a second attempt fairly soon after then chances are there wont be as

many shorts there as the last time so higher chance of it breaking through. A good resistance

level should not breach on first attempt.Otherwise its not resistance. It will need some thing

special to break through this level on first attempt basis like a market moving news. Thats why

its wise to have a stop in play and trade this during market hours only as then the chances of

the news causing wip saws are smaller.This is due to all the main news being released before

the market is open (13.30pm UK time). If you placed a trade before the market is open then

you may get caught up in the crazy market moving hour before the market is open.The swings

can really be wild so a lot of stops will be taken out.



The above is just my feelings on the dow and people should only trade the dow if your

experienced . Its not a forgiving index so only trade what you can afford to lose. Always use

stops and never trade more than 2% of your trading capital on one trade.

Most important is

DYOR(Do Your Own Research.

Hi Diver thanks for that. From a non technical view I was expecting a pull back as we moved closer to the March debt ceiling deadline. Now they seem to have suspended this until May time maybe the rally will continue even further....I do agree there will be a substantial pullback its just a matter of when.