DOW

14198 is what I have as the all time high.
That's from metastock. Thomson Reuters so I'd expect that to be correct .
It would be nice if someone with Updata can also verify.

Remo- I am getting confusing highs for the Dow in 2007. I have got 14164 and also a mention of 14198.... Please can you confirm?

Thanks

I'm using a 40 point stop. But I must admit i was thinking of extending the stop loss just this once due to the special level.
But that will go against the way I trade so I have to stick with the 40 points stop loss.
I don't want to start to change my style of trading and second guessing every thing ....I have to stick to my own rules.
Can't be changing them as once you do it once then that could have a spiralling effect with future trades. Well for me any way as my back ground is of an addictive nature....lol
Tough decisions for this one trade.....
I'm still weighing this up....
ill stick to my 40 points stop and if it gets taken out so be it. I can always re-enter on a 123 high for a short or if it breaks out then always re-enter on a long on a proper back test.
The key to trading well against the Dow is to not over trade. Just wait for the best levels then trade them.
The first touch rule works best from a far and not close up so bear that in mind.
Enough of my rambling
I'm looking forward to the week ahead.

For the record:

The last time the Dow closed that mark was Oct. 12, 2007, when it settled at 14,093.08. It had reached its all-time record, 14,164.53, three days before that.

The last words from my grandmother a few years ago was :

"son, always short a double top"...it wasn't clear at that time and i wasn't sure what she meant lol.

These words have been haunting me for ages- and now I think it's time to execute he last wishes . On a more serious note, I think it's definitely a key point we are approaching so I have put my orders in, at least the first touch according to remo's rule. If there would be a breakout of this range iMHO it will come as an ascending triangle to break this highs. So I think there will be a correction before a breakout to a new high.

Is 14,900 the magic number??????

I've been taking a look at the long-term view as under......





and a better view is linked here....
screencast.com/t/zEDYjuzVYd

It doesn't all quite fit onto one page. The main relevant missing bit is the origin of the low from which I've take the first point in the fib expansion - it's 570 back in Dec 1974 at the time of the oil crisis..... I remember it well... and the power cuts:(

Anyway, the high produced at (a) was a 61.8% expansion of a. If you project that forward to the present time a 61.8% expansion of (a) to get ((a)) gives a target of 14,892. Now that's based on PRT data so, rough figures let's say 14,900ish

Even more significant for the 'high pickers' is the consideration of what follows..... the pull-back will, once again, be severe ...... so why try to pick the top when the scope for shorting will be so big?

As has oft been said, the World and his wife is expecting this pull-back, so there's a whole mass of short orders out there with stop-losses attached. Guess who's vacuuming them up? Which, in turn, causes further extension in the bull market. Which encourages more retail traders to invest even more in short-orders.... and on.... and on ... until so much has been lost on stop losses they all give up and the pros step in and short the hell out of it!

Me? I'm gonna wait for a five swing move south, in one of the small time-frames to confirm the move, then jump in.