US Election

I agree on this pull back being a long one, the last drop was based on outright panic, this one will be the slow effects of covid on businesses and livelihoods so can see it being well into next year.

Still holding my short from a few weeks ago - funnily enough only yesterday I was looking at old posts and saw WS post about a bounce after a close below 26500, wish i'd spotted it early, would have taken some coin - as usual he called that one to perfection!...sometimes I think he must be a time traveller

Nice Take TF - and a Brilliant idea to create this thread!

On the results front, sure looks like Biden will win it - but it remains contested - Electoral College meet formally to ratify the results in a few weeks I believe?

There are legal hoops (some have been thrown out, but some have been accepted) to get through - and Trump will get the best legal minds money can buy to make a case to the Supreme Court etc...

Regardless - this isn't going to be about Trump vs Biden, rather, a divided and very angry america.

Then you've got the likely gridlock - Senate still within control of the GOP, the lower house is in minor control of the Dems.

And if that wasn't enough, the GOP is imploding (there's a surprise!), and Biden will also have his hands full: does he appease the conservative wing of the party or give the progressives what they want - which are complete opposites.

The markets? the love gridlock - Gridlock means, no new programmes, no wealth distribution, no regulations.

But these are short term quick rush sugars - the US will have to start re-thinking its long term prospects - and that needs a strategy.

Gold is in a strange position - the number of central banks selling right now, is making it "cheap", but the USD is getting weaker and weaker - and under biden it will weaken further still (sadly from a geo-political view).

I agree with you on Oil and maybe you can add base metals (like Copper) to the list too.

Lastly, long term markets? well, they are by design - especially the Dow - designed to go up. It's the medium term that I - like yourself and Wavesurfer - expect it to correct.

(just my two cents! who knows what's going to happen in this crazy world of ours!)

Looks like Biden will win the day! or maybe it'll be the week by the time its all done!

Anyway it may well be the catalyst or excuse for a shake up in the markets??

I think the dow rally could see a p/b over the next year or two imvho....no quick fire crash....just a slow bear phase....based mainly on a weak economy with the pandemic fallout....and we always get a big p/b every 10 years or so....

Maybe the gold rally could end as well? for now at least....
a decent drop then and then a high on Gold?

In terms of reversal.....i think crude oil and oil stocks could make a comeback.... ending the bear phase and start a new bull run.....probably will not see new highs on the oil stocks....but a rally from the new lows we have atm...

just my thoughts...as always i know nothing....but i would like to know what you guys think....it will be interesting to see how things play out...

atb
trendfriend