GKP - Research

Hi MFB,

It's a difficult question to answer imho. I'm certain you don't need to know anything about fundamentals to be able to make money in the markets, but equally if you're good at the fundies then you can do the same a la Mr Buffett though you probably need a much longer term view.

Question: how has knowing GKP's fundamentals helped anyone make money on this share in 4.5 years?

As another example, Kingfisher Group is on remo's share tips as a possible short this week. It announced results today of approx 4.1% increase in sales, revenue, profit or something or other. That's fundamentally good news, right? However, unless it closes above 421p the stock will almost certainly drop. It could be making an exhaustion candle as I type (we have to wait and ee where it closes).

Both fundamentals and TA have their place in the market but they are not to be confused. Often news, whether good or bad, gets sold into. Sometimes TA predicts a price move and then news comes along to make it happen. Sometimes you get big price moves with no news at all (though investors will usually seek to justify such price moves through some vague and largely irrelevant snippet from an obscure blog).

The market is the market and there's no point in saying that a share *ought* to go up because the fundamentals are good. It just doesn't often work like that.

I remember a III poster called stopthismadness saying once: the only fundamental factors which affect share price movement over anything but the short term are company game changers (eg a new oil discovery in Aug 2009 lol). Everything else just provides a trading opportunity. Another way of looking at this is the "efficient market" theory: all the complexities of the fundamentals are already priced in to the market. You therefore don't need to know them. All you need is to be able to read the price history to see whether the company is fundamentally on the up or on the down. It's much easier to interpret one variable than hundreds.

Just my view. It's very difficult to effectively trade a share whose fundamentals you know. Fundies give you a bias which may not be apparent in the price action.

No. Fundamentals inform you about the company. This has nothing whatsoever to do with trading. Trading is predicting the 'herd mentality'. What will the majority do? Nothing more.

If you're talking about long term investment then maybe fundamentals come into the mix, but not for trading.

All just my opinion of course.

If you are good at working out the fundamentals, and can predict a general long term long/short status for a share, then does that give you a head start on the technical side?

I can only echo 1000% what Jackozy has said - great advice mate!

Separately, GKP has been listed to the main FTSE 100 this morning.......
pdf.reuters.com/Regnews/regnews.asp?i=43...:20140325:nRSY0652Da

Hi Mine the Money,

Well, you've come to the right place if you want to learn about trading!

The best advise I can give you is to keep it simple and stick to the rules. And I mean STICK TO THE RULES. There is ZERO room for hope and expectation in trading (something I'm still struggling with) and only a clinical approach will have a chance of winning.

To that end, I strongly advise that you look each week at remo's share tips (see tab above - you may need to subscribe to access it but it's worth every penny 1000 times over imho) and see how simple trading strategies can reap their rewards.

A good example: you'll note if you look that GKP almost never appears in remo's tips. Why? Because it's very rarely at a key trading level (it's mostly a sideways moving share which will take your money every time). With all due respect, your 106p entry is technically in the middle of nowhere and your support at 95p the same. This share should only be entered now on a 123-low basis (see the learning section of CV) or on a drop to the next support at 64-67p. The gap at 138-144p may well get filled but, imho, that is a clear sell area.

You'll also find that most, if not all, the successful traders on here know next to nothing about fundamentals (and care even less probably). This becomes even more relevant the shorter the timescales you want to trade.

Finally, if you've been drawn to trading because you've been burnt by GKP's price history then can I urge you to be very careful. Trading is not easy (though the PIs on III will tell you that it is and that they're responsible for what's happened). It takes a lot of work and discipline and you must be able to deal with failure (losses) on a regular basis. Strict money management is absolutely critical.

Even then, when you've learnt all about TA and money management, you still need to be able to make good decisions. Like any top class sports person, training is key but you still need to be able to perform in the high pressure environment of competition or to play what's in front of you and not what you learnt on the training pitch. Nobody ever won a gold medal in training so I urge you to open a demo account and practice in the semi-real world. Even pretend £s will focus your attention and show you that it really isn't as simple as taking candy from a baby.

Good luck with your venture and please keep us informed as to how you progress. We are all still learning and sometimes it's good to go back to roots and re-learn the basics

Hi guys,

GKP has held at support of 100p today which seems is good. I believe GKP is been listed tomorrow onto the FTSE 100 so all we can do is cross all thing possible and hope for the best.

Anyone else feel the gap at 139.83-143 need to be filled?

I have opened an account with TD direct investing on sunday because I wanted to dabble in short term trading and HSBC dont do stop losses and limit etc.

I did buy some GKP at 106.7p this morning with a stop loss at 95p . I am really new to short term trading so it is going to be a steep learning curve for me.

Any suggestions or pointers would be most appreciated even if it means heavily criticizing me I want to learn.