Weekly Market Outlook — 26 October 2026

US equities finished last week on the back foot, with the NASDAQ 100 down 1.94% and the S&P 500 off 0.87% while the Dow held up better. With the Fed decision on Wednesday and over a third of S&P 500 companies reporting, I'm leaning cautious and letting key levels dictate the trade.

Last Week in Review

It was a risk-off tilt in the US, with tech doing the damage. The NASDAQ 100 dropped 1.94% and the S&P 500 lost 0.87%, while the Dow Jones bucked the trend with a gain of 0.48%, a clear rotation away from growth. Oil stayed volatile, with WTI up 3.90% on the week and Brent up 0.75%, even as both sold off hard on Friday on worries about demand destruction. Gold shed 3.16% and silver fell 5.83%, so there was no safe-haven bid either. It was a choppy, lower-highs sort of week rather than a clean trend, and sentiment into the close looked fragile.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

The Dow closed at 52,215, down 1.23% on Friday after rejecting the 5-day high of 52,928. That leaves a bearish-leaning candle on the daily, a pullback from the highs, though the weekly is still up 0.48%, so it hasn't broken down.

Support: 51,864 (5-day low) is the line in the sand, with 52,000 as an intraday psychological level just above it. Resistance: the previous close at 52,868, then 52,928 (5-day high).

My bias is neutral to mildly bearish. The Dow has been the relative strength play, but the Friday rejection from the highs and a big week of earnings plus the Fed make me unwilling to chase longs into resistance. If US30 loses 51,864 on a daily close, I'm looking for a move lower with the 51,000 area as a first extension. For longs, I want to see a hold above 51,864 and a reclaim of 52,868; that opens a retest of 52,928 and a break to fresh highs. A daily close above 52,928 invalidates the bearish lean.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

The NAS100 closed at 28,958, flat on Friday but down 1.94% on the week. It sits close to the 5-day low of 28,826 after a sharp rejection from 29,928, which tells me sellers are defending the upper end of the range.

Support: 28,826 first, and a break there exposes lower levels. Resistance: 28,959 (previous close), then 29,928 (5-day high). With a big chunk of S&P 500 companies reporting, tech earnings and AI spending headlines (SpaceX's $40 billion debt deal for chips is one to note) can swing this index quickly.

I'm bearish below 29,928, with the trade being a break and close below 28,826 targeting a deeper flush. If buyers defend 28,826 and we reclaim 29,000 convincingly, I'd step aside from shorts and look for a bounce back towards the highs. A daily close above 29,928 would flip me.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: At 7,624 it's sitting just above the 5-day low of 7,612. A break below that is the trigger for downside; resistance sits at 7,663 then 7,770.

Gold: Down 3.16% on the week to 4,019, with the 5-day low at 3,989 nearby. A loss of 3,989 would be a bearish continuation; 4,164 is the major overhead level.

Oil: WTI at 100.94 is holding a volatile range between 96.26 and 103.92. Saudi infrastructure risk versus demand destruction means headline-driven moves, so I'm trading it small.

GBP/USD: Up 0.49% on the week to 1.3374, pushing against the 5-day high of 1.3417. With the Budget on Wednesday, expect sterling volatility; support sits at 1.3310.

Key Events This Week

• Wednesday — Federal Reserve policy decision (time to be confirmed): This is the biggest risk event of the week. The tone on rates will drive US indices and the dollar.
• Wednesday 28 October — UK Budget: Chancellor Healey sets out tax plans; watch for sterling and gilt reaction.
• Today 09:00 GMT — German Ifo Business Climate (Oct): Forecast 89.8, previous 89.9. A read on European sentiment.
• Today 14:30 GMT — Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct): Previous 9.8. Medium impact on US sentiment.
• Today 12:30 GMT — Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep): Previous -0.04. Low-to-medium impact.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

My overall bias is cautious. Tech is weak, earnings are heavy and the Fed lands midweek, so I expect choppy two-way price action. I'm waiting for US30 to give me a clean break of 51,864 or a reclaim of 52,868, and for NAS100 to decide around 28,826 before committing real size. Until then I'm trading smaller and keeping stops tight around event risk, because the Fed can wipe out a week's worth of good setups in minutes. If a level isn't clean, there's no trade.