A tech-led wobble last week left the NASDAQ 100 down 4.82% and the S&P 500 off 1.89%, while the Dow barely flinched. My bias for the week is cautiously neutral, with dip-buyers and the bears both needing to prove themselves at key levels.
Last Week in Review
This was a tech-driven risk-off week rather than a broad market collapse. The NASDAQ 100 fell 4.82% and the S&P 500 lost 1.89%, its biggest weekly decline since late June, while the Dow Jones held up at +0.29%. That divergence tells me money rotated out of AI and semiconductor names rather than fleeing equities entirely. Outside indices, Gold added 2.19%, Silver jumped 4.01%, Natural Gas slipped 3.81% and Bitcoin edged up 0.52%.
US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook
US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
US30 closed the week at 52,002.41, up 0.29%. That makes it a small-bodied, near-doji style weekly candle: the index traded between 51,365.42 and 52,582.32 and ended almost where it started. The Dow has been the relative strength story while tech got hit.
Support: the previous close at 52,177.69 sits above current price, so it is now resistance. Below price, I'm watching the 51,365.42 five-day low as the key floor. A break there would put the whole defensive-rotation story in doubt.
Resistance: 52,177.69 first, then the 52,582.32 five-day high.
My bias: neutral to mildly bullish while 51,365 holds. The Dow is acting as the safe-haven index within equities, but with the Fed decision uncertain and borrowing costs in focus, I'm not chasing it. If US30 reclaims 52,177 and holds above it on a closing basis, I'm looking for longs targeting 52,582. A daily close below 51,365 flips me neutral-to-bearish and invalidates the idea.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook
NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
NAS100 closed at 29,187.55, down 4.82% on the week and snapping a four-week winning streak. That is a heavy bearish weekly candle, with price sitting just above the 29,073.29 five-day low, uncomfortably close to the floor. The five-day high at 30,813.96 shows how quickly sentiment turned.
Support sits at 29,073.29; a clean break below opens the door to further downside, and I have no reliable data for levels beneath it, so I'd let price show me the next area. Resistance is 29,935.60 (previous close), then 30,813.96.
Futures were bid early today on dip-buying in the AI trade, but BTIG is advising clients to use any semiconductor bounce to cut exposure, and MarketWatch is flagging rising yields as a headwind for tech. Meta and Tesla report this week, so earnings could drive big swings. My bias is bearish below 29,935. A rejection there targets a retest of 29,073. I'd only turn bullish on a reclaim of 29,935 with follow-through.
Quick Takes
S&P 500: Closed at 7,659.44, just above the 7,631.77 five-day low. Resistance is the 7,744.06 previous close, and I'd treat that as the line in the sand for any bounce.
Gold: Up 2.19% on the week to 4,198.00, pressing the 4,220.40 five-day high. A break above targets new highs; 4,095.00 is the support I'd defend on dips.
Oil: WTI finished at 97.47 (+2.50% on the week), but it dropped 3.89% on the last session, closing below the 101.41 previous close. Resistance sits at 101.90, support at 93.58. Brent at 108.03 faces 110.25 overhead.
GBP/USD: Up 0.92% to 1.3331, just below the 1.3371 five-day high. Hold above 1.3210 and the bulls stay in control; lose it and the move looks like a one-off spike.
Key Events This Week
- Monday, 14:00 GMT (US) — NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct): forecast 31, previous 32. Medium importance, but a weak print adds to the rate-sensitivity narrative.
- Fed decision (October): the biggest risk of the week. The market expects a pause, but Kevin Warsh's communication style makes the tone uncertain. Exact date and time are not in my calendar data, so check before positioning.
- Earnings: Meta, Tesla, General Motors and major airlines report this week. Meta and Tesla are the ones that can move NAS100 on the day.
The Week Ahead — My Game Plan
My overall bias is cautious: neutral on US30, bearish on NAS100 below 29,935 and wary of the S&P below 7,744. I want to see whether dip-buyers can defend the 29,073 area on NAS100 and 7,631 on the S&P before getting involved on the long side. With a Fed decision and heavyweight tech earnings in the same week, I'll wait for confirmation rather than guess direction. Keep position sizes smaller than usual, define your stop before you enter, and remember that no trade is a perfectly good position when volatility is this headline-driven.
Written by Remo, founder of ChartsView. This outlook reflects personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.