Wall Street ended last week with the Dow and S&P 500 in the green while the NASDAQ 100 lagged, and oil and gold both pushed higher on a tense geopolitical backdrop. I'm leaning cautiously bullish on the Dow this week, but earnings season and rising yields mean the levels matter more than the narrative.
Last Week in Review
It was a rotation week rather than a clean risk-on trend. The Dow Jones gained 0.75% and the S&P 500 added 0.48%, but the NASDAQ 100 slipped 0.62%, so money moved away from tech and towards the broader market. Energy and metals did the heavy lifting elsewhere: Brent finished the week up 3.36%, WTI up 2.49%, gold up 1.72% and silver up 2.11%, while Bitcoin climbed 2.75%. Oil gave back some ground on Friday after Trump's 'energy ceasefire' headlines between Russia and Ukraine, but the Middle East risk premium is clearly still in the price.
US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook
US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
The Dow closed at 51,654.95, up 0.83% on the day and 0.75% on the week, and it's sitting right under the 5-day high of 51,765.11. That's a bullish weekly candle with a close near the highs, which tells me buyers were in control into the finish.
Support: the previous close at 51,231.64 is the first level I care about, followed by the 5-day low at 50,862.85. A break below that low would damage the structure.
Resistance: 51,765.11 is the immediate ceiling. Beyond it, data not available for higher reference levels, as we're trading at or near fresh highs.
Bias: cautiously bullish. Price is holding at the top of its range and the Dow has shown relative strength against the NASDAQ. If US30 holds above 51,231 and reclaims and closes above 51,765, I'm looking for continuation longs with a stop beneath 51,231. My bias is invalidated on a daily close below 50,862, which would turn last week's push into a failed breakout. Bank earnings this week could be the catalyst either way.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook
NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
The NAS100 closed at 30,883.15, up 0.51% on Friday but down 0.62% on the week, so it's the laggard of the three major US indices. The 5-day range ran from 30,556.40 to 31,361.37, and price is sitting in the middle of it.
Support: 30,725.81 (previous close), then the 5-day low at 30,556.40. Resistance: 31,361.37, the 5-day high.
Tech has been the answer to almost every question this bull market, and with yields rising, that's the vulnerability. My bias is neutral until price picks a side: a close above 31,361 puts longs back on the table, while a break below 30,556 opens the door to a deeper pullback. I'd rather wait for the break than guess inside the range.
Quick Takes
S&P 500: Closed at 7,811.54, just under the 5-day high of 7,844.52. Support sits at 7,765.36, then 7,727.59. I'm watching for a clean break above 7,844 to confirm the Dow's strength.
Gold: At 4,211.80, flat on the day but up 1.72% on the week. Resistance is 4,242.30, with support at 4,091.20. China's record gold buying is a supportive backdrop, so I'd favour buying dips towards the previous close at 4,216 rather than chasing.
Brent Oil: Closed at 103.57 after a 1.10% Friday pullback on the ceasefire headlines. Support is 99.62, resistance 105.91. It's headline-driven, so expect sharp moves in both directions.
GBP/USD: At 1.3237, holding in a tight 1.3186 to 1.3287 range. No edge until one side breaks.
Key Events This Week
The calendar data I have is thin, so I'm only listing what's confirmed. Treat bank earnings as the dominant theme regardless.
- Monday, 16:50 GMT (US): Fed Hammack speech. Any hint on rates matters with yields already in focus.
- Monday, 23:01 GMT (UK): BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Sep). Forecast 0.7%, previous 0.5%. Low impact for US indices but useful for the pound.
- Tuesday (US): The big banks kick off Q3 earnings season. Time not in my calendar data, but this is the biggest risk event of the week, as it's the first real read on how higher yields are hitting the economy.
The Week Ahead — My Game Plan
My bias is mildly bullish on the Dow and neutral on the NASDAQ, with the S&P 500 as the tiebreaker. I want to see the Dow hold 51,231 and the S&P 500 clear 7,844 before I commit to any size on the long side. Earnings are propping this market up, but with oil near 90 on WTI and yields rising, complacency is the risk, so I'm happy to let price confirm first. Keep your stops defined before you enter, risk a small fixed percentage per trade, and remember that a skipped setup costs you nothing.
Written by Remo, founder of ChartsView. This outlook reflects personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.