US equities took a hammering last week, with the NASDAQ 100 shedding 3.57% as the AI trade wobbled, but Monday's early bounce in tech gives bulls something to work with. My bias this week is cautiously neutral on the Dow and a tentative bounce play on the NASDAQ, as long as last week's lows hold.
Last Week in Review
It was a risk-off week led by tech. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.57%, the S&P 500 lost 2.18% and the Dow Jones gave up 1.34%, a classic rotation where the high-beta AI names took the brunt of the selling. The trigger was the US midterms: fears of tougher AI regulation under a Democrat-controlled House sparked a heavy tech selloff, and Nvidia's board probe into CEO Jensen Huang added fuel late in the week. The jobs report was the bright spot, with 165,000 payrolls against 59,000 expected and unemployment slipping to 4.1%, but strong data didn't stop the index selling. Meanwhile gold gained 1.33% and oil edged higher, while Bitcoin slid 2.28%. Overall it was a distribution-style week with lower highs and the indices closing nearer the lows than the highs.
US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook
US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
The Dow is sitting at 51,285.73 after dropping 1.34% on the week and closing down 0.46% on the latest session. The weekly candle is bearish, but note the Dow held up far better than tech, which tells me money is rotating rather than leaving equities altogether.
Support: the 5-day low at 50,992.61 is the line in the sand, and the 51,000 handle sits just above it. A break below opens up a deeper flush with nothing in my data to catch it, so I'd be careful chasing shorts into thin air. Resistance: the previous close at 51,523.06 is first, then the 5-day high at 53,710.61, which is a long way up.
My bias is neutral to mildly bearish while price stays below 51,523. The Dow has been the relative strength play, but it lost ground on a day when the NASDAQ bounced, which is a small warning sign. If US30 holds above 50,992 and reclaims 51,523 on a closing basis, I'll look for a rotation long targeting the 52,500 area, a level I'm using as a rough halfway marker toward the 5-day high. Invalidation for the bounce is a clean 1-hour close below 50,992, at which point I stand aside or look for shorts on a retest from underneath.
NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook
NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView
The NAS100 is at 26,989.99, up 1.35% on the day but down 3.57% on the week, so this is a bounce inside a damaged weekly candle. It tagged a 5-day low of 26,606.43 and has pushed back above the previous close of 26,629.81, which is now my first support.
The headlines are mixed. The AI trade is clawing back after trillions were wiped off values, but the Nvidia probe and the regulatory worries haven't gone away, and the S&P 500 is heavily exposed to a handful of AI names. Resistance is stacked at the 5-day high of 28,829.66, but realistically I want to see how price reacts around 27,500 first, my own pullback marker between here and that high.
My bias is a tentative bounce while 26,606 holds. A hold above 26,630 with a push through 27,500 targets the upper end of last week's range. A break below 26,606 invalidates the bounce and puts the selloff back in play. Expect volatility around any Nvidia news and AI earnings.
Quick Takes
S&P 500: At 7,376.86 it's hovering just above the 5-day low of 7,350.35. A close below that level would confirm the breakdown, while holding it keeps a bounce toward 7,715.57 in play over the longer term.
Gold: Up 1.33% on the week at 4,127.30, with the 5-day high at 4,155.80 just overhead. A clean break above it and I'd expect momentum buyers to pile in, with 3,928.20 as the major support if it fails.
Oil: WTI is at 89.93 and Brent at 96.80, with headlines around Iran talks and the Strait of Hormuz keeping a risk premium in the market. WTI support sits at 86.65 and resistance at 97.15, so this is a headline-driven range.
GBP/USD: At 1.3385 and sitting near the lower end of its range, with support at 1.3339 and resistance at 1.3502. It's a range-bound pair until it breaks one side.
Key Events This Week
The calendar data I have is thin for the days ahead, so here is what's confirmed for today:
- Monday, 07:00 GMT, Germany Balance of Trade (Sep): forecast 19.6bn euros versus 19.5bn previous. Rated high importance, but a limited read-across for US indices.
- Monday, 09:30 GMT, EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Nov): forecast 2.1 versus 2.7 previous. A soft reading would feed into the risk-off tone.
- Monday, 16:00 GMT, NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct): previous 3.9%. This is the one to watch, because sticky inflation expectations feed rate fears and tech valuations.
- Monday, 18:00 GMT, US 3-Year Note Auction: a weak bid-to-cover would push yields up and pressure equities.
The NY Fed inflation expectations release is the biggest risk on the board today. The rest of the week's calendar isn't yet available, so keep an eye on key US inflation data, which headlines suggest is due.
The Week Ahead — My Game Plan
My overall stance is cautious: neutral on the Dow, and a tentative bounce on the NASDAQ only while the 26,606 low holds. I'm not interested in chasing anything until I see how price handles the previous closes, 51,523 on the Dow and 26,630 on the NAS100. Wait for confirmation and let the first hour of the US session show you who is in control. With headline risk from the Nvidia probe, Iran talks and tariffs, keep your size down, set your stop before you enter, and remember that protecting capital in a choppy week is a perfectly good result.
Written by Remo, founder of ChartsView. This outlook reflects personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.