Weekly Market Outlook — 02 November 2026

US equities took a hit last week, with the NASDAQ 100 shedding over 3% as AI spending worries bit into tech. I'm treating the Dow as the relative-strength play, but the bias is cautious until the Nasdaq proves it can stabilise.

Last Week in Review

It was a risk-off week for US equities, and tech took the brunt of it. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.04%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.26% and the Dow Jones lost 1.13%, so the damage was concentrated in growth rather than spread evenly across the board. The catalyst was the AI spending debate, with headlines about capex nearing $1tn pushing the Nasdaq to its lowest level in over two months. Elsewhere, Brent crude fell 4.57% and silver slid 5.77%, while GBP/USD edged up 0.37%. This was a trending, bearish week rather than a choppy range, and it ended near the lows.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

The Dow closed at 51,770.31, down 1.13% on the week, and the candle is bearish, closing in the lower portion of its range. Compared with the Nasdaq it held up well, but that is relative strength inside a down week, not a reason to get bullish.

Support sits first at the 5-day low of 51,563.76, which is only about 0.4% below current price and therefore a fragile floor. A break there opens the door to the next psychological area around 51,000, though I'd treat that as a projection rather than a data-derived level. Resistance is the previous close at 52,342.56, then the 5-day high at 52,634.32.

My bias is neutral-to-bearish while price is below 52,342. Sellers have control, but the Dow is the most defensive of the three majors and could stabilise first if tech steadies. The bias is invalidated by a daily close back above 52,342, which would tell me last week's selling was an overreaction. The setup I'm watching: if US30 loses 51,563 on a closing basis, I'm looking for shorts targeting the 51,000 area. If it holds 51,563 and reclaims 52,342, I'll flip to longs targeting the 52,634 high.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

The NAS100 closed at 28,384.85, down 3.04% on the week and 3.46% on Friday's session alone. That is a decisive bearish candle, closing close to the 5-day low of 28,093.24, which is the key support, only about 1% below. Resistance starts at the previous close of 29,402.51, with the 5-day high at 29,848.71 above that. The gap between current price and the first resistance is large, so any bounce is likely to be sold into.

The story is AI. Spending nearing $1tn has investors questioning returns, and Intel's continued slide isn't helping sentiment. Apple reports today in a rare Monday slot, with new CEO John Ternus facing inflated memory prices and softer consumer spending, so expect volatility around the open. My bias is bearish below 29,402. If 28,093 breaks, momentum could accelerate. Invalidation is a close above 29,402.

Quick Takes

Gold — Down 3.23% on the week at 3,920.90 but up 0.56% on the day. Support is the 5-day low at 3,879.30, resistance at 4,097.20. A hold above 3,879 keeps a bounce alive.

Brent Oil — Fell 4.57% on the week to 110.05, with the 5-day low at 109.28 right underneath. Watch the Iran headlines closely, as both sides reportedly prepare for further strikes after the US midterms.

GBP/USD — Up 0.37% to 1.3394, sitting just under the 5-day high of 1.3434. A close above that is bullish for cable, with 1.3273 the support to defend.

S&P 500 — At 7,580.07, just above the 5-day low of 7,527.56. Resistance is the previous close of 7,720.39. It's tracking the Nasdaq lower, so I'd treat 7,527 as the line in the sand.

Key Events This Week

• Today (Mon), 15:00 GMT — US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct): Forecast 54.6 versus 54.5 previously. This is the biggest risk event on the calendar. A miss could add to the risk-off tone, while a beat may support the Dow.
• Today, 15:00 GMT — US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct): Previous 52.7. A useful read on jobs ahead of the labour data later in the week.
• Today, 16:15 GMT — Fed's Goolsbee speaks: Any hint on rate direction could move indices.
• Today, 07:00 GMT — German Retail Sales (Sep): Forecast 0.4% MoM versus 1.3% previously. Medium impact, but useful for euro sentiment.

Beyond today's calendar, headlines point to jobs data and the US midterm elections later in the week, so expect headline-driven volatility.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

My bias is cautiously bearish on US indices, with the Nasdaq the weakest link and the Dow the most resilient. I want to see how Apple and the ISM data land today before committing, and I'm watching whether the 5-day lows (51,563 on US30, 28,093 on NAS100) hold. I won't chase moves into a midterm week with Iran headline risk in the background, so I'll wait for closes through levels rather than intraday spikes. Size down, keep stops where the trade idea is actually invalidated, and remember that no position is worth a blown account.