Monday 2 November 2026
Data: Close 2 Nov 2026 | US30: 51,983.98 | Change: +213.67 (+0.41%) | Range: 51,981.66-52,424.91
Market Overview
The Dow outperformed on Monday, adding 213.67 points (+0.41%) to 51,983.98 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.51% and the Nasdaq lost 1.07%. The day was a rotation story: oil fell more than 4% (WTI near $99, Brent near $108) on reports of Iran-Qatar talks on a plan to end the conflict, which lifted retailers, payments and consumer names, while big tech carried on last week's AI-spending sell-off.
The quality of the gain was poor. The index opened at 52,008, ran to 52,424.91 by midday and then sold off for the rest of the session to close on the low of the day, giving back 441 points into the close ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections and Apple's results. The VIX rose 8.9% to 21.15 even though the Dow finished higher - traders were buying protection, not chasing.
After the close Apple (a Dow component) beat on revenue ($114.5bn, +12% year on year) and EPS ($2.10 vs about $1.99 expected), but gross margin fell and iPad missed; early after-hours trade was around 1% lower.
Overall bias: MIXED - bearish lean short term. Price is back under the 20 and 50-day EMAs, MACD has just crossed down, and the day closed on its low. The longer-term trend is still up (well above the 200-day EMA).
Trend
EMA stack: EMA20 52,102 · EMA50 52,121 · EMA200 50,680. Close 51,984 is below the 20 and 50 and above the 200 = Bear (below 20/50). The 20 has slipped just under the 50, with both flat - no trend in the medium term.
Structure: The bigger picture since the 5 Aug record high (54,744) is a correction of lower highs (54,223 on 11 Aug, 53,746 on 3 Sep, 52,751 on 14 Sep) down to the 1 Oct low at 50,547. Since then the Dow has made a higher high (52,928 on 22 Oct) and a higher low (51,564 on 30 Oct). That short-term recovery is intact for as long as 51,564 holds.
Phase: Consolidation. The index has spent three weeks in a 51,560-52,930 box, with the 20/50 EMAs sitting in the middle of it.
Indicators
RSI(14): 48.4 (45.2 on Friday) - NEUTRAL, under 50. It peaked at 62.8 on 21 Oct while price made its 22 Oct high, and has faded since; no divergence against price at the lows yet.
MACD(12,26,9): MACD 69 vs signal 71, histogram -1 - fresh bearish crossover today. The histogram has shrunk every day from +137 to -1 over the last six sessions, so upside momentum has gone.
Volume: 519m shares vs a 20-day average of 426m (+22%). Friday's sell-off was the heaviest day in the run (659m); today's rally came on less volume than Friday's fall.
ATR(14): 517 points - use this for stop distances.
VIX: 21.15 (+8.9% today, +15% over 5 days) - elevated, event risk priced in for the midterms.
Key Levels
Resistance
R1 52,100-52,120 - 20 and 50-day EMA cluster, also Camarilla R3. First test for any bounce.
R2 52,425-52,635 - today's high and the 28 Oct high. Today's rejection came from here.
R3 52,928 - 22 Oct swing high and top of the three-week box. A close above it reopens 53,750.
Support
S1 51,564-51,600 - Friday's low, the higher low of the October recovery. Most important level this week.
S2 51,124-51,190 - 16 Sep and 24 Sep lows.
S3 50,547-50,680 - 1 Oct correction low plus the 200-day EMA. Loss of this would turn the long-term picture bearish.
Classic pivots: S2 51,687 · S1 51,835 · P 52,130 · R1 52,279 · R2 52,573
Cam: S4 51,740 · S3 51,862 · S1 51,943 || R1 52,025 · R3 52,106 · R4 52,228
Round numbers: 52,000 (closed just under it), 51,500, 53,000, 50,500.
Notable Dow Components
Top gainers: Sherwin-Williams +5.94% · Home Depot +3.63% · Walmart +3.38% · McDonald's +2.91% · Visa +2.88%
Top losers: Chevron -3.29% · Microsoft -2.83% · Cisco -2.77% · IBM -2.06% · Apple -1.83%
Strongest (above all three EMAs): Sherwin-Williams, Home Depot, Walmart, Visa, American Express - all Bull (above all) and all up more than 4% over five days. Lower oil helped the consumer and payments names.
Weakest (below all three EMAs): Caterpillar (-11.3% over 5 days), Alphabet (-11.9% over 5 days), Cisco (-7.8%), Nvidia (-6.5%), Boeing - all Bear (below all). Microsoft is Bear (below 20/50) after a 2.8% fall.
Point drivers: the Dow is price weighted, so SHW (+$19.8), HD (+$11.9) and Visa (+$11.9) did most of the lifting; Microsoft (-$14.8), Caterpillar (-$9.2) and Chevron (-$7.7) were the biggest drags. Chevron fell with oil but is still Bull (above all).
News: Apple results after the close (beat, shares lower after hours). Alphabet and Amazon are still recovering from last week's earnings sell-off.
Trade Setups
Swing 1 - Short: sell the rally into the EMA cluster
Entry: 52,120 · Stop: 52,650 · T1: 51,580 · T2: 51,190 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:1.75
Stop is about 1 ATR, above the 28 Oct high. Fits today's close on the low and the MACD cross. Kill: daily close above 52,450.
Swing 2 - Long: buy the higher low at Friday's low
Entry: 51,620 · Stop: 51,100 · T1: 52,120 · T2: 52,640 · R:R: 1:1.0 / 1:2.0
Only if 51,564-51,600 holds on the first test with a reversal candle. Stop is under the Sep lows (about 1 ATR). Kill: daily close below 51,500.
Intraday 1 - Short below Camarilla S3
Entry: 51,830 (15-min close below) · Stop: 52,030 · T1: 51,620 · T2: 51,450 · R:R: 1:1.05 / 1:1.9
Below S3 and the classic S1 (51,835) opens a run to Friday's low. Kill: back above 51,945 (Cam S1).
Intraday 2 - Long above Camarilla R4
Entry: 52,240 (15-min close above) · Stop: 52,040 · T1: 52,450 · T2: 52,630 · R:R: 1:1.05 / 1:1.95
A break of R4 clears the EMA cluster and targets today's high and the 28 Oct high. Kill: back below 52,106 (Cam R3).
Risk note: Tuesday is US midterm election day and results come in overnight into Wednesday - expect gaps. Consider smaller size or wider stops, and avoid holding intraday trades through the close.
Upcoming Events
Tue 3 Nov: US midterm elections - results overnight; markets watching the balance of power in Congress for fiscal policy and Treasury yields. Apple's first full session after results. AMD reports.
Wed 4 Nov: ADP private payrolls, ISM services PMI. Uber reports.
Thu 5 Nov: Weekly jobless claims.
Fri 6 Nov: October jobs report (non-farm payrolls, 13:30 UK).
Next week: CPI on Tue 10 Nov. Next Fed decision 9 Dec.
Geopolitics: Iran-Qatar talks on ending the US-Israel conflict with Iran. A deal would push oil lower (good for the Dow's consumer names, bad for Chevron); a breakdown would reverse today's move.
Report: 02 Nov 2026 21:50 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.
Analysis by remo, a private trader. It is an opinion, not financial advice. Index CFDs and spread bets are high-risk and most retail accounts lose money.