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Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) - Company Research

Last Updated: 19 September 2026

Barratt Redrow plc is the United Kingdom's largest housebuilder by volume and by revenue, formed when Barratt Developments PLC completed its acquisition of Redrow plc on 21 August 2024. The enlarged group builds under three consumer brands — Barratt Homes, David Wilson Homes and Redrow — alongside Gladman, the UK's largest land promoter. This report covers the financial year ended 28 June 2026, for which results were published on 16 September 2026, three days before this update. Every figure below is taken from the company's own results announcements, balance sheet, cash flow statement and regulatory filings, or from live market data on the date stated. No analyst ratings or price targets are used anywhere in this report.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
Legal nameBarratt Redrow plc (formerly Barratt Developments PLC)
Ticker / exchangeBTRW, London Stock Exchange Main Market (ISIN GB0000811801)
Index membershipFTSE 100, FTSE 350, FTSE All-Share
SectorHousehold goods and home construction — residential housebuilding
Head officeBarratt Redrow House, Cartwright Way, Bardon Hill, Coalville, Leicestershire, UK
Fiscal year endLate June (FY2026 = 52 weeks to 28 June 2026)
Market capApproximately £4.30bn (18 September 2026, share price 311.20p against approximately 1.38bn shares in issue)
Revenue (FY2026)£6,055.0m, up 6.6% year on year
Profit for the period (FY2026)£243.2m; statutory profit before tax £363.5m
Adjusted profit before tax (FY2026)£572.8m before purchase price allocation adjustments
Home completions (FY2026)17,667 including 566 from joint ventures, up 5.0%
Net cash£772.8m at 28 June 2026 (FY2025: £772.6m)
Employees7,928 at 29 June 2025 per the FY2025 Annual Report; the FY2026 Annual Report, which will carry the updated headcount, is due for publication in October 2026
CEO / LeadershipDavid Thomas, Group Chief Executive to 21 September 2026, on which date Dean Banks succeeds him as Group Chief Executive; Rebecca Napier, Chief Financial Officer since 3 August 2026; Caroline Silver, Chair since 30 June 2023

Live price action for Barratt Redrow and its listed peers can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Volume growth against a weak market: FY2026 completions of 17,667 rose 5.0% and landed towards the top of management's guidance range, at a time when several listed peers were shrinking. Revenue grew 6.6% to £6,055.0m.
  • Merger synergies running ahead of plan: The £100m annual cost synergy target from the Redrow combination is confirmed, with £53m delivered in FY2026 on top of £20m in FY2025, leaving roughly £27m to come. This is a margin lever that does not depend on the housing cycle.
  • Balance sheet strength and optionality: Net cash of £772.8m, a single £200.0m term borrowing and a revolving credit facility increased to £900m and extended to July 2031 leave the group unusually well capitalised for a cyclical housebuilder.
  • Buying back stock at a discount to tangible assets: With the shares at 311.20p against tangible assets per share of 439.8p, management has committed a £400m FY2027 capital return weighted almost entirely to buybacks, retiring shares below stated book value.
  • Scale and multi-brand land efficiency: At £6.06bn of revenue the group is materially larger than any listed UK peer, and multi-branding lets it run two or three outlets on land that previously supported one. Twelve such synergy outlets opened in FY2026, with 18 more planned for FY2027.

Bear Case

  • Margins and returns are still compressing: Adjusted gross margin before purchase price allocation fell 210 basis points to 15.3% and return on capital employed slipped to 8.4% from 9.0%, driven by weaker underlying pricing and heavier sales incentives.
  • The building safety provision is not shrinking: The combined legacy property provision stood at £1,074.5m at 28 June 2026 against £1,073.8m a year earlier, with £149.2m of fresh charges added in the year and cash outflows guided to roughly £300m in FY2027 and £450m in FY2028.
  • Guidance has already been trimmed once: FY2027 completion guidance was cut to 17,500–17,900 homes from 17,700–18,200, explicitly because of planning delays, within weeks of first being set.
  • The ordinary dividend has effectively been withdrawn: The FY2026 total of 6.0p compares with 17.6p in FY2025, and the final payment is a nominal 1.0p. Shareholder return now rests almost entirely on a buyback that management can pause at will.
  • Simultaneous change at the top: A new Chief Financial Officer arrived on 3 August 2026 and a new Group Chief Executive arrives on 21 September 2026, in the middle of a capital allocation overhaul and with an unresolved competition class action outstanding.

3. Revenue Segments

Barratt Redrow does not publish a revenue split by consumer brand. It does disclose revenue by sales category in note 2 of the FY2026 results, and the table below uses those disclosed categories against total FY2026 revenue of £6,055.0m.

Segment / category% of revenue (FY2026)What it is
Private residential sales81.0% (£4,905.8m)Open-market home sales to private buyers across the Barratt Homes, David Wilson Homes and Redrow brands; 12,272 completions in FY2026.
Affordable residential sales12.6% (£762.8m)Homes sold to housing associations and registered providers, largely to discharge planning obligations; 3,774 completions, 22.1% of wholly owned volume.
Private rental sector sales5.7% (£346.3m)Bulk sales of completed homes to institutional build-to-rent investors; 1,055 completions in FY2026.
Planning promotion agreements0.4% (£21.9m)Fees earned by Gladman, the group's land promotion business, for taking third-party land through the planning system.
Commercial sales0.3% (£16.0m)Disposal of commercial and mixed-use elements attached to residential developments.
Sundry revenue0.0% (£2.2m)Residual items including land sales and ancillary services.

Alongside these categories the group holds a stake in the MADE Partnership, a master-development joint venture with Homes England and Lloyds Banking Group established in September 2024, targeting more than 18,000 homes across six sites. Its first site, Godley Green Garden Village in Greater Manchester, is expected to start on site in early 2027.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Barratt Redrow buys land, secures detailed planning consent, builds houses and apartments, and recognises revenue on legal completion. Gross profit is the spread between selling price and the sum of land cost, build cost and sales overhead. In FY2026 that produced a statutory gross margin of 13.6% and an adjusted operating margin before purchase price allocation of 9.9%. Because land is bought years before the homes on it are sold, reported margin in any given year largely reflects land bought two to four years earlier, which is why the estimated gross margin embedded in the current land bank — 17.3% at 28 June 2026, down from 19.2% — is a better forward indicator than the reported number.

Where the moat sits. The durable advantage in UK housebuilding is control of consented land and the ability to fund it through the cycle. Barratt Redrow held 76,447 owned and unconditional plots plus 12,148 conditionally contracted plots at the FY2026 year end, equivalent to 5.2 years of supply, with a strategic land bank of a further 144,059 plots across 24,825 acres. Gladman adds a promotional pipeline of 113,551 plots. Very few competitors can match that combination, and a net cash balance sheet lets the group buy land when weaker builders cannot.

What the merger actually changed. Multi-branding is the structural benefit that is hardest for peers to copy. Because the group now owns three brands at different price points, a single large site can support a Barratt Homes outlet and a Redrow outlet simultaneously, roughly doubling the sales rate from the same land. Twelve such outlets opened in FY2026, with 18 planned for FY2027 and 15 for FY2028 against a target of at least 45. Divisional offices have been cut from 41 to 32.

Where capital is being returned. Management changed its capital allocation policy on 15 July 2026, moving from a progressive ordinary dividend to a buyback-led model of returning 50% of adjusted net income via share repurchase, with at least a further £100m per year of buyback from FY2028. The stated rationale was the persistent discount of the share price to tangible net asset value, which reached roughly 36% at the July 2026 low.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from Barratt Redrow's own audited and announced results. FY2025 and FY2026 are 52-week periods reported by the merged group; FY2022 to FY2024 are Barratt Developments PLC before the Redrow combination, so the FY2025 revenue step-up largely reflects the acquisition rather than organic growth.

Fiscal YearRevenue (£m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY2022 (to 30 Jun 2022)5,267.9+9.5%50.6p83.0p †36.9p£200.0m ‡
FY2023 (to 30 Jun 2023)5,321.4+1.0%53.2p67.3p †33.7p£200.0m ‡
FY2024 (to 30 Jun 2024)4,168.2-21.7%11.8p28.3p †16.2p£200.0m ‡
FY2025 (52wk to 29 Jun 2025)5,578.3+33.8%13.6p32.1p17.6p£200.0m
FY2026 (52wk to 28 Jun 2026)6,055.0+6.6%17.1p28.5p6.0p£200.0m

† For FY2025 and FY2026 the adjusted figure is adjusted basic earnings per share before the impact of purchase price allocation adjustments arising on the Redrow acquisition, as reported by the company. For FY2022 to FY2024 it is the adjusted basic earnings per share reported by Barratt Developments PLC at the time, which mainly excluded building safety provision charges. The two bases are not directly comparable across the merger. On the post-merger basis, adjusted basic earnings per share after purchase price allocation was 26.1p in FY2026 and 27.2p in FY2025.

‡ The group's only term borrowing throughout the period is a £200.0m sterling US Private Placement note maturing in August 2027, confirmed as non-current loans and borrowings of £200.0m at both 29 June 2025 and 28 June 2026 in the FY2026 balance sheet. Lease liabilities are carried separately at £31.2m non-current and £16.4m current at the FY2026 year end. The group is net cash: cash and cash equivalents of £970.9m against those borrowings gives reported net cash of £772.8m.

The half-yearly picture below is presented most recent first. Barratt Redrow reports interim results for the 26 weeks to late December and full-year results for the 52 weeks to late June, so second-half figures are derived by subtraction rather than separately reported.

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
H2 FY2026 (26wk to 28 Jun 2026) †£3,422.9m18.5p9.9p
H1 FY2026 (26wk to 28 Dec 2025)£2,632.1m10.0p7.2p
H2 FY2025 (26wk to 29 Jun 2025) †£3,297.5m19.3p8.0p
H1 FY2025 (26wk to 29 Dec 2024, restated)£2,280.8m12.8p5.6p
FY2026 total (52wk to 28 Jun 2026)£6,055.0m28.5p17.1p

† Second-half figures are derived by deducting the reported first half from the reported full year. They are not separately published by the company. Adjusted earnings per share in this table is stated before purchase price allocation adjustments, consistent with the annual table above.

Cash generation improved sharply in FY2026. Net cash generated from operating activities was £436.4m against £29.3m in FY2025, while capital expenditure remained trivial for a business of this size at £12.2m of property, plant and equipment plus £1.5m of intangibles. Statutory operating profit was £444.3m against £285.5m. Depreciation and amortisation added back in the cash flow statement totalled £36.4m, comprising £7.6m on property, plant and equipment, £17.6m on right-of-use assets and £11.2m of intangible amortisation. Total equity stood at £7,776.5m and inventories, which for a housebuilder are principally land and work in progress, at £7,869.5m, of which land carried £4,641.3m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Market capApproximately £4.30bn (18 September 2026, 311.20p against approximately 1.38bn shares in issue)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)18.2x (311.20p divided by FY2026 basic earnings per share of 17.1p). On adjusted basic earnings per share before purchase price allocation of 28.5p the same price implies 10.9x.
P/E (forward)n/a — the company does not publish earnings guidance and no reliable published consensus FY2027 earnings per share figure was located. Management does guide to 17,500–17,900 FY2027 completions and adjusted administrative expenses of around £360m.
P/S (TTM)0.71x (market cap approximately £4.30bn divided by FY2026 revenue of £6,055.0m)
Enterprise valueApproximately £3.58bn (market cap approximately £4.30bn plus total debt approximately £0.25bn less cash £0.97bn, per the FY2026 balance sheet). Total debt comprises £200.0m of non-current loans and borrowings, nil current borrowings, and lease liabilities of £31.2m non-current and £16.4m current. Cash and cash equivalents were £970.9m with no separately disclosed marketable securities.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)7.4x (enterprise value approximately £3.58bn divided by EBITDA of approximately £0.48bn; EBITDA = statutory operating profit £444.3m plus depreciation and amortisation £36.4m per the FY2026 cash flow statement). The cash flow statement is the only depreciation and amortisation disclosure in the results announcement, so the narrow add-back figure is used.
P/FCF10.2x (market cap approximately £4.30bn divided by free cash flow approximately £0.42bn; free cash flow = operating cash flow £436.4m less capital expenditure £13.7m, being £12.2m of property, plant and equipment and £1.5m of intangibles, per the FY2026 cash flow statement). Note that land purchases run through working capital rather than capital expenditure for a housebuilder, so this measure flatters cash conversion relative to an asset-heavy industrial.
Price to tangible net assets0.71x (311.20p against net tangible assets per share of 439.8p at 28 June 2026), a discount of approximately 29%
Dividend yield1.9% on the FY2026 total declared dividend of 6.0p at 311.20p. The trailing cash-paid yield is higher at approximately 5.5% because the twelve months to date included the 12.1p FY2025 final payment.
52-week high410.21p (27 October 2025)
52-week low235.40p (18 May 2026)
Short interest (% of float)5.08% of shares in issue across five disclosed positions as at 9 July 2026, the last date before the UK disclosure regime changed: Kintbury Capital 2.49%, Two Sigma Investments 1.00%, Capital Fund Management 0.59%, Janus Henderson Investors UK 0.50% and Jupiter Asset Management 0.50%.
Days to covern/a — not published for this period. The UK short disclosure regime moved to anonymised aggregate reporting on 13 July 2026 and neither the FCA register nor the London Stock Exchange short position tracker publishes a days-to-cover statistic. Verify current aggregate short interest on the FCA short position disclosure register.

7. What Are They Building

Finishing the merger. The £100m annual cost synergy target is confirmed and on track. Cumulative delivery reached £73m by the FY2026 year end, of which £53m landed in FY2026 alone, with the remaining £27m — mostly procurement — expected largely in FY2027 and tailing into the first half of FY2028. Divisional offices have been reduced from 41 to 32.

Multi-brand outlets. The revenue side of the merger case is a target of at least 45 additional sales outlets created by running two brands on land that previously supported one. Twelve opened in FY2026, 18 are planned for FY2027 and 15 for FY2028.

Shortening the land bank. Management is deliberately running the owned and controlled land bank down from 5.2 years to a medium-term target of 4.5 years, split 3.5 years owned and 1.0 year controlled, to release capital and lift return on capital employed. Land approvals in FY2026 fell to 3,029 plots across 27 sites, far below the 10,000 to 12,000 originally guided, and the land creditor ratio sits at 15.3% against a medium-term target of 20% to 25%.

Modern methods of construction. The group operates a timber frame manufacturing facility near Derby, expanded from the original Selkirk site acquired with Oregon Timber Frame. Timber frame was used on 5,558 FY2026 completions, and some form of modern method of construction featured in 35% of completions. A new engineered facade system branded Mauer, with lower embodied carbon than brick, is in trials.

Partnership development. The MADE Partnership with Homes England and Lloyds Banking Group targets more than 18,000 homes across six large sites, with the first, Godley Green Garden Village in Greater Manchester, expected to start on site in early 2027.

FY2027 guidance. Management guides to 17,500 to 17,900 total completions including around 600 from joint ventures, approximately 405 average sales outlets, build cost inflation of 3% to 4%, adjusted administrative expenses of around £360m, and year-end net cash falling to £400m to £500m as land creditor and legacy property cash commitments of roughly £630m to £800m unwind.

8. Competitive Landscape

Barratt Redrow is the largest listed UK housebuilder by both revenue and market capitalisation. Market capitalisations below were checked on 17 and 18 September 2026.

PeerMarket cap (September 2026)Key 2025 metric
Persimmon plc (PSN.L)£3.76bnReported earnings per share of 89.30p, implying a trailing price to earnings ratio of 13.10x at 1,169.50p (London Stock Exchange company data, 18 September 2026)
Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG.L)£3.03bnReported earnings per share of 331.60p, the highest in the peer set, implying a trailing price to earnings ratio of 10.02x at 3,324.00p (London Stock Exchange company data, 18 September 2026)
Taylor Wimpey plc (TW.L)£2.80bnReported earnings per share of 2.80p, implying a trailing price to earnings ratio of 28.92x at 80.98p, reflecting heavily depressed earnings (London Stock Exchange company data, 18 September 2026)
Bellway plc (BWY.L)£2.29bnReported earnings per share of 132.80p, implying a trailing price to earnings ratio of 15.42x at 2,048.00p (London Stock Exchange company data, 18 September 2026)
Vistry Group plc (VTY.L)£0.84bnReported earnings per share of 42.20p, implying a trailing price to earnings ratio of 6.26x at 264.00p, the cheapest in the peer set, after a 52-week range of 220.00p to 746.00p (London Stock Exchange company data, 18 September 2026)

The comparison that matters most is scale. Barratt Redrow's FY2026 revenue of £6,055.0m is roughly double that of the next largest listed peer, and its 17,667 completions give it purchasing power on materials and labour that smaller builders cannot match. Against that, the peer group trades on a wide spread of earnings multiples because each company is at a different point in its own margin cycle, and Vistry's depressed rating reflects company-specific problems in its partnerships division rather than a sector-wide read-across.

9. Insider Activity

Insider dealing at Barratt Redrow through 2026 has been consistently one-directional. Every disclosed transaction identified in London Stock Exchange director dealing notifications was a purchase, all by non-executive directors using their own money on the open market, and no disclosed executive or non-executive sale was identified. Group Chief Executive David Thomas, who steps down on 21 September 2026 after more than a decade in the role, made no disclosed open-market purchase or sale during the period reviewed; his successor Dean Banks had not yet joined the board.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Katie Bickerstaffe16 Sep 2026Buy6,526304.80p£19,891Open-market purchase
Geeta Nanda22 Jul 2026Buy1,701294.00p£5,001Open-market purchase
Katie Bickerstaffe15 Apr 2026Buy5,687262.20p£14,911Open-market purchase
Katie Bickerstaffe06 Mar 2026Buy5,789322.80p£18,687Open-market purchase
Katie Bickerstaffe06 Mar 2026Buy10,771322.80p£34,769Open-market purchase, corrected by replacement notification dated 25 Aug 2026
Steven Boyes01 Jul 2026VestNot disclosedNilNilExecutive long-term incentive plan award granted July 2023, vesting on schedule; not an open-market transaction

Separately, the company itself has been a persistent buyer of its own stock. The £100m FY2026 programme completed on 8 May 2026 having repurchased 22.9m shares for £83.7m, and the £386m FY2027 programme launched on 15 July 2026 had repurchased 17.5m shares for £53.5m by 6 September 2026.

10. Key Risks

  • Mortgage affordability and rate volatility: Management attributed second-half FY2026 softness to renewed inflation and interest rate concerns, and the net private reservation rate slipped to 0.53 per outlet per week in early FY2027 against 0.55 a year earlier. Housebuilder demand is a direct function of mortgage pricing, which the company does not control.
  • Planning delays constraining volume: FY2027 completion guidance was cut specifically because of continued planning delays. Although the Planning and Infrastructure Act became law in December 2025 and a revised National Planning Policy Framework was published in August 2026, management states the benefits have yet to be realised on the ground.
  • Building safety and legacy property liabilities: The combined provision was £1,074.5m at 28 June 2026, with £149.2m of additions in the year including £46.1m on a single previously provisioned building, and £153.8m of cash utilisation. Guided outflows of roughly £300m in FY2027 and £450m in FY2028 are a quantified drain on the net cash position, and the ultimate scope remains subject to structural survey and regulatory outcomes.
  • Unresolved competition litigation: The Competition and Markets Authority closed its information-sharing investigation on 30 October 2025 with binding commitments and a collective £100m industry payment, of which Barratt Redrow's share was £29m. A follow-on collective damages claim was filed at the Competition Appeal Tribunal on 24 June 2026 against seven housebuilders including Barratt Redrow, and its quantum and outcome are unresolved.
  • Margin and cost inflation pressure: Adjusted gross margin before purchase price allocation fell 210 basis points to 15.3% on weaker underlying pricing, higher sales incentives and build cost inflation. Build cost inflation is guided at 3% to 4% for FY2027, up from around 2% in FY2026, with explicit exposure to global energy and supply chain volatility.
  • Land investment discipline cutting both ways: Land approvals of 3,029 plots in FY2026 were far below the 10,000 to 12,000 originally guided. Deliberate caution protects returns today, but if it persists it will constrain outlet replacement and medium-term volume.
  • Reduced financial flexibility in FY2027: Year-end net cash is guided down to £400m to £500m from £772.8m as land creditor and legacy property commitments of roughly £630m in FY2027 and £645m in FY2028 fall due, which narrows the buffer that currently underpins the buyback.
  • Leadership transition: A new Chief Financial Officer took office on 3 August 2026 and a new Group Chief Executive takes office on 21 September 2026, both external hires, in the same twelve months and during a fundamental change to capital allocation policy.

11. Recent Developments

  • 16 Sep 2026 — FY2026 full-year results published. Revenue of £6,055.0m, up 6.6%, statutory profit before tax of £363.5m, adjusted profit before tax before purchase price allocation of £572.8m, net cash of £772.8m and 17,667 completions. The adjusted figure beat the company-compiled consensus of £559.5m and the shares rose sharply on the day.
  • 25 Aug 2026 — Corrected director shareholding notification issued. A replacement regulatory notification corrected the share count on a 6 March 2026 purchase by non-executive director Katie Bickerstaffe.
  • 03 Aug 2026 — Rebecca Napier joined as Chief Financial Officer. Previously Chief Financial Officer of Britvic plc and, before that, seventeen years at International Airlines Group including as Chief Financial Officer of British Airways, she succeeded Mike Scott.
  • 30 Jul 2026 — Revolving credit facility increased and extended. The facility rose from £700m to £900m with a term to 30 July 2031 and provision for extension to 2033.
  • 15 Jul 2026 — Capital allocation policy overhauled. A £400m FY2027 shareholder return was announced, comprising a roughly £386m buyback and a nominal 1.0p dividend, replacing the progressive ordinary dividend. Management cited a share price discount to tangible net asset value of approximately 36%.
  • 24 Jun 2026 — Competition Appeal Tribunal claim filed. A collective action was brought against seven housebuilders including Barratt Redrow alleging anti-competitive information exchange, following the CMA settlement of October 2025.
  • 19 Jun 2026 — Chief Financial Officer appointment announced. The company confirmed Rebecca Napier's appointment ahead of her August start date.
  • 15 Apr 2026 — Third-quarter FY2026 trading update. Land approval guidance was revised down to 7,000 to 9,000 plots from the original 10,000 to 12,000.
  • 04 Mar 2026 — Chief executive succession announced. Dean Banks, formerly chief executive of Ventia Pty Ltd and before that of Balfour Beatty UK Construction Services, was named to succeed David Thomas from 21 September 2026, with Thomas remaining available to the company until 3 March 2027.
  • 11 Feb 2026 — Half-year results for the 26 weeks to 28 December 2025. Revenue of £2,632.1m, 7,444 completions, adjusted profit before tax of £199.9m, basic earnings per share of 7.2p and an interim dividend of 5.0p.
  • 30 Oct 2025 — CMA investigation formally closed. The Competition and Markets Authority accepted binding commitments from seven housebuilders including a collective £100m payment to affordable housing programmes, of which Barratt Redrow's share was £29m.
  • 06 Oct 2025 — Redrow Staff Pension Scheme buy-out completed. Standard Life assumed the remaining liabilities, leaving the scheme with a small net surplus of £3.2m.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 08 Oct 2026 — ex-dividend date for the nominal 1.0p FY2026 final dividend
  • 28 Oct 2026 — UK Autumn Budget, alongside an Office for Budget Responsibility economic and fiscal forecast; housing taxation, stamp duty and planning measures are recurring swing factors for reservations
  • 04 Nov 2026 — Annual General Meeting and trading update, confirmed in the FY2026 results announcement as the next scheduled company announcement
  • 05 Nov 2026 — Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision, published with a Monetary Policy Report
  • 13 Nov 2026 — payment date for the FY2026 final dividend
  • 17 Dec 2026 — Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision
  • Expected Feb 2027 — half-year results for the 26 weeks to late December 2026; the company has not yet published a confirmed date, and the prior-year interim was released on 11 February 2026
  • Expected Sep 2027 — FY2027 full-year results, the first full year under the new chief executive

Scheduled Bank of England decisions and UK macroeconomic releases that move housebuilder sentiment are tracked on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and readers can discuss the sector on the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
61 / 100

The central thesis. Barratt Redrow builds and sells homes in the UK under the Barratt Homes, David Wilson Homes and Redrow brands, earning the spread between selling price and the combined cost of land, build and sales overhead, with 81.0% of FY2026 revenue coming from open-market private sales. For the 52 weeks to 28 June 2026 the group reported revenue of £6,055.0m, up 6.6%, statutory profit before tax of £363.5m and adjusted profit before tax before purchase price allocation of £572.8m, on 17,667 completions that landed towards the top of guidance. Management guides FY2027 to 17,500–17,900 completions, build cost inflation of 3–4% and year-end net cash of £400–500m, and has committed a £400m FY2027 capital return weighted to buybacks. The near-term driver is the remaining £27m of the £100m Redrow cost synergy programme plus the multi-brand outlet roll-out, which adds sales capacity without buying more land.

What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed if the November trading update shows the reservation rate holding above 0.53, the remaining synergies land on schedule and the buyback continues to retire stock below the 439.8p tangible asset value per share. It is invalidated if the £1,074.5m building safety and legacy property provision keeps growing rather than unwinding, if the Competition Appeal Tribunal claim filed in June 2026 produces a material award, or if planning delays force a second cut to completion guidance and compress the 15.3% adjusted gross margin further.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsAGM and trading update (46 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Volume growth against a weak market:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Building safety and legacy property liabilities:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 5
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
1 of 8
Recent news
Net upgrades
Generated
19 Sep 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 19 Sep 2026.