Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) - Company Research
Last Updated: 28 April 2026
Barratt Redrow plc (LSE: BTRW) is the FTSE 100 housebuilder formed in October 2024 by the merger of Barratt Developments and Redrow plc (CMA cleared 22 August 2024 in an all-share deal valued at £2.5 bn). The Q3 FY26 trading update on 15 April 2026 confirmed the integration is delivering: £100 m of run-rate synergies have already been achieved (vs the original £90 m target by year three), and the FY26 completions guidance of 17,200–17,800 homes was reiterated alongside a +6.3% YoY net private reservation rate (incl. PRS/MUS) of 0.67. FY25 (year to 29 June 2025) delivered revenue £5.58 bn, adjusted PBT £591.6 m, completions 16,565 (+18.3% YoY), an ASP of £344k, and net cash of £772.6 m alongside a 17.6p dividend (+8.6%). The story since then is a story of two halves: the operating model is doing what the merger was meant to do, but the share price is at a 13-year low (266p on 23 April 2026; ~257p on 27 April 2026). H1 FY26 adjusted PBT fell 13.6% to £199.9 m and the operating margin compressed to 8.0% (HY25: 8.9%), the building safety provision passed £1 bn (£886.4 m post-Grenfell + £187.4 m for reinforced concrete frame), and the leadership team is in flux: CFO Mike Scott departed with immediate effect on 13 November 2025; CEO David Thomas’s successor Dean Banks (CEO of Ventia, ex-Balfour Beatty) was named on 4 March 2026 and will join in Q4 2026, with Thomas staying until March 2027. This report covers the FY25 numbers, the H1 FY26 reset, the synergy delivery, the competitive set, the CMA Phase 2 settlement (£100 m collective payment accepted 30 October 2025) and the principal risks: UK mortgage rates, building-safety tail spend, planning execution and leadership transition.
1. Company Snapshot
| Company | Barratt Redrow plc |
| Ticker | LSE: BTRW (FTSE 100) |
| Sector / Industry | UK Housebuilding — volume & premium |
| HQ | Barratt House, Cartwright Way, Forest Business Park, Bardon Hill, Coalville, Leicestershire LE67 1UF |
| CEO | David Thomas (since 2015; 17 years with group) |
| CEO designate | Dean Banks (ex-Ventia / Balfour Beatty / De La Rue) — joins Q4 2026; Thomas continues until March 2027 |
| CFO | VACANT; Michael Passmore Interim Deputy CFO since 13 Nov 2025 |
| COO | Mike Roberts (from 6 Sept 2025; succeeded Steven Boyes after 47 years’ service) |
| Chair | Caroline Silver |
| SID | Nicky Dulieu (from 5 November 2025) |
| Founded | Barratt 1958 (Newcastle); Redrow 1974; merged Oct 2024 |
| Employees | ~9,200 (FY25) |
| Fiscal year end | 52-week fiscal calendar; year-end late June |
| Share price (27 Apr 2026) | ~257p (after a 13-year low of 266p on 23 April 2026) |
| 52-week range | ~256p – ~486.5p |
| Market cap | ~£3.6–3.8 bn (~1.42 bn shares) |
| FY2025 revenue | £5.58 bn |
| FY2025 adj PBT | £591.6 m |
| FY2025 completions | 16,565 (+18.3% YoY); ASP £344k |
| Net cash (FY25) | £772.6 m |
| FY25 DPS | 17.6p (+8.6% YoY); 1.75× cover policy |
| Tangible NAV / share (FY25) | 437p — price 257p implies ~0.59× P/TBV |
| Next results | FY26 trading update 15 July 2026 (pre-close); FY26 prelims 16 September 2026 |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| £100 m+ run-rate synergies confirmed in the Q3 FY26 trading update (15 April 2026) — ahead of the original £90 m target. £97 m delivered to date. | H1 FY26 adjusted PBT down 13.6% to £199.9 m; H1 operating margin compressed to 8.0% (HY25: 8.9%); statutory PBT £156.2 m. |
| FY25 completions +18.3% to 16,565; net cash £772.6 m; tangible NAV/share 437p vs 257p share price — ~0.59× P/TBV. | Building safety provision now exceeds £1 bn (£886.4 m post-Grenfell + £187.4 m reinforced concrete frame); £100.6 m spent in FY25 alone. |
| Forward sales 1 Feb 2026: 11,168 homes / £3,407.8 m (vs 10,903 / £3,350.3 m prior year); Q3 reservation rate 0.67 (incl. PRS/MUS) +6.3% YoY. | Stock down ~30% YTD 2026 and ~38% over 12 months — one of the worst FTSE 100 performers over three months to late April 2026; share price at a 13-year low of 266p on 23 April 2026. |
| £100 m+ annual share buyback active: 22.9 m shares bought in FY26 YTD for £83.7 m (9.7 m in Q3 alone for ~£33.3 m). | CMA Phase 2 housebuilders study commitments accepted 30 Oct 2025 — £100 m collective contribution to affordable housing across seven builders incl. BTRW (no liability admitted, but reputational overhang remains). |
| FY26 completions guidance 17,200–17,800 (incl. ~600 JV) reiterated April 2026; medium-term aspiration 22,000 homes / year; 100,004-plot owned/controlled land bank. | CEO succession (Dean Banks joins Q4 2026), CFO vacant since 13 Nov 2025, COO change Sept 2025 — concurrent leadership transition during operational reset; build-cost re-inflation guided ~1–2% in FY26. |
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
BTRW is the largest UK private-sector housebuilder by completions. It builds new-build family homes and apartments under four customer-facing brands and operates one commercial vehicle:
| Brand | Positioning |
|---|---|
| Barratt Homes | Volume / mainstream |
| David Wilson Homes | Premium 4–5 bedroom family |
| Redrow | Premium / Heritage Collection |
| Barratt London | Apartments & high-density London developments |
| Wilson Bowden Developments | Joint commercial vehicle — offices, retail, industrial |
The group operates through 30+ divisional offices across Eastern, London, Midlands, North East, North West, South East, South West, Wales, Yorkshire and Scotland. FY25 outputs:
| Metric | FY25 |
|---|---|
| Total completions | 16,565 |
| Private (incl. PRS/MUS) | 13,129 |
| Affordable | 2,898 |
| JV | 538 |
| ASP — Group | £344k |
| ASP — Private | £380k |
| ASP — Affordable | £179k |
H1 FY26 (26 weeks to 28 Dec 2025, reported 11 February 2026): completions 7,444 (+4.7% aggregated); private +6.7% to 5,877; adj operating profit £210.2 m; adj PBT £199.9 m (-13.6% YoY); statutory PBT £156.2 m; net cash £173.9 m post dividends and buybacks.
4. The Business Model
- Land bank: 100,004 owned/controlled plots (FY25); 22,530 plots approved/added during FY25.
- Margins (FY25 reported): Adjusted gross margin 17.4%; adjusted operating margin 10.7%; H1 FY26 operating margin 8.0% (HY25: 8.9%).
- Build cost inflation: Broadly flat in FY25; guided ~1–2% in FY26 (HY26 reported ~1%).
- Building safety: £100.6 m spent FY25 on legacy remediation (cumulative provision >£1 bn). ~200 buildings tendered/on site; 165 reinforced concrete frame buildings under review (51 in remediation, 17 complete, 75 cleared, 22 under review).
- Government schemes: Help-to-Buy ended March 2023; reliance is now on first-time-buyers / mortgage market and the PRS/affordable channels as volume buffers.
- Section 106 affordable: Embedded in the volume mix (17.5% of FY25 completions; ASP £179k vs private £380k).
- Synergy programme: Original £90 m year-three target raised to "at least £100 m"; £97 m delivered as of H1 FY26; 37% from divisional office consolidation, 38% procurement, 25% central functions; 9 division closures near completion April 2026.
5. Financial Health
Five-year financials (June year-end). Note FY21–FY24 are Barratt Developments standalone; FY25 is the first full Barratt Redrow combined year.
| Metric | FY21 (Barratt) | FY22 (Barratt) | FY23 (Barratt) | FY24 (Barratt) | FY25 (BTRW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completions | 17,243 | 17,908 | 17,206 | 14,004 | 16,565 |
| ASP (£k) | 288.8 | ~300 | n/d | n/d | 344 |
| Revenue (£bn) | n/d | n/d | 5.32 | 4.16 | 5.58 |
| Adj operating margin | n/d | ~24% (gross) | n/d | n/d | 10.7% |
| Adj PBT (£m) | n/d | n/d | n/d | 385 | 591.6 |
| Net cash (£m) | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d | 772.6 |
| DPS (p) | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d | 17.6 |
H1 FY26 (to 28 Dec 2025, reported 11 Feb 2026): Completions 7,444 (+4.7%); private +6.7%; adj operating profit £210.2 m; adj PBT £199.9 m (-13.6%); statutory PBT £156.2 m; net cash £173.9 m post divs/buybacks. £30 m+ cost synergies in H1; £50 m total expected in FY26.
Q3 FY26 trading update (15 April 2026, 13 weeks to 29 March 2026): 3,274 quarterly completions; 10,718 YTD; net private reservation rate 0.64 (+3.2%); incl. PRS/MUS 0.67 (+6.3%); 9.7 m shares bought for ~£33.3 m in Q3 (FY26 YTD: 22.9 m / £83.7 m); 32 new sales outlets opened in quarter, 6 more by year end; £100 m run-rate synergies confirmed.
6. Valuation & Market Data
| Share price (27 Apr 2026) | ~257p (post 13-year low of 266p on 23 April 2026) |
| Shares in issue | ~1.42 bn |
| Market cap | ~£3.6–3.8 bn |
| 52-week range | ~256p – ~486.5p |
| YTD 2026 performance | ~-30% |
| Forward P/E | ~10.5× |
| Trailing P/E | ~17.4× |
| P / Tangible book value | ~0.59× (TNAV/share 437p) |
| Forward dividend yield | ~6.1–6.8% |
| EV (approx) | ~£3.4–3.6 bn (market cap less £174 m H1 net cash) |
| FY25 DPS | 17.6p (+8.6%); 1.75× cover policy |
| Buyback | £100 m+ minimum annual; 22.9 m shares / £83.7 m FY26 YTD |
7. What Are They Building / What’s Coming?
- Synergy targets: Original £90 m by year three; upgraded to "at least £100 m" and confirmed at H1 FY26 stage with £97 m delivered. Sources: 37% divisional office consolidation, 38% procurement, 25% central functions.
- Volume targets: FY26 completions 17,200–17,800 (incl. ~600 JV) — reiterated April 2026. Medium-term aspiration 22,000 homes per year.
- Office consolidation: 9 divisional office closures near completion April 2026.
- Planning reform: Updated NPPF in force December 2024; new "grey belt" rules; mandatory housing targets restored. NPPF further consultation closed 10 March 2026. UK government has set a 1.5 m homes target this Parliament; CEO Thomas has publicly said the 1.5 m number is "not possible" given skills constraints.
- Build cost outlook: ~1–2% in FY26 (vs broadly flat FY25).
- Sales outlets: Broadly flat in FY26; "synergy outlets" ahead of schedule; 32 new in Q3 FY26.
- Buyback: £100 m+ p.a. minimum; FY26 YTD 22.9 m shares for £83.7 m.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | 2024/25 completions | Latest revenue / margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vistry | >18,000 target | n/d | Now UK’s largest housebuilder by volume; PRS/affordable focus |
| Barratt Redrow | 16,565 (FY25); 7,444 H1 FY26 | £5.58 bn FY25; op margin 10.7% | Subject company — #1 in private volume |
| Taylor Wimpey | 15,658 (CY2025; -9%) | £3.84 bn (+13%); PBT -54.3% to £146.5 m | Margin under pressure |
| Persimmon | 11,905 (CY2025; +12%) | Op profit £472.1 m (+17%) | Margin recovery story |
| Bellway | 8,749 (FY ended Jul 2025) | Underlying op margin nearing 11% | Volume rebuilding |
| Berkeley | ~3,500 (London / SE prime) | n/d | Different business model — high-margin urban regen |
| MJ Gleeson, Crest Nicholson | smaller | n/d | Regional / affordable focus |
Barratt Redrow remains UK #1 by completions among private-sector volume builders (16,565 FY25 + run-rate >17,000 in FY26 vs Taylor Wimpey 15,658 CY2025 and Persimmon 11,905 CY2025). Vistry has overtaken on a volume-target basis, but its mix is heavily weighted to PRS / affordable / partnership.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Top institutional holders: BlackRock and Vanguard remain among the largest institutional shareholders (specific percentages not disclosed in the immediately available public filings reviewed for this report). The free float is wide; no single dominant shareholder.
Board changes 2025/26:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 1 August 2025 | Geeta Nanda chairs Sustainability Committee; Nigel Webb chairs SHE Committee |
| 6 September 2025 | Steven Boyes retires as COO after 47 years; Mike Roberts appointed |
| 5 November 2025 | Jasi Halai chairs Audit & Risk; Nicky Dulieu becomes SID |
| 13 November 2025 | CFO Mike Scott departs with immediate effect; Michael Passmore acting Interim Deputy CFO |
| 4 March 2026 | Dean Banks (CEO of Ventia, ex-Balfour Beatty) named CEO designate; will join Q4 2026; David Thomas continues until March 2027 |
Recent insider deal: 15 April 2026 RNS — Non-Executive Director Katie Bickerstaffe purchased 5,687 ordinary shares at £2.622 (discretionary on-market purchase).
10. Risks and Challenges
- UK mortgage rates: BoE base-rate trajectory directly drives reservation rates; share-price weakness YTD 2026 reflects market concern over the rate path.
- Building safety tail: >£1 bn cumulative provision (£886.4 m post-Grenfell + £187.4 m reinforced concrete frame); ongoing scope expansion as more legacy buildings are surveyed.
- CMA scrutiny: Phase 2 housebuilding market study commitments accepted 30 October 2025 — £100 m collective payment by seven builders incl. BTRW (no liability admitted, but reputational overhang).
- Skills shortage: CEO Thomas has publicly stated the UK 1.5 m homes target this Parliament is "not possible" given construction labour constraints — affecting volume aspirations across the sector.
- Planning reform timing: NPPF further consultation closed March 2026; reform timing/execution risk; planning permission timelines remain a bottleneck.
- Build cost inflation: ~1–2% guided FY26 vs broadly flat FY25 — emerging margin pressure.
- Leadership transition: Concurrent CEO succession (Banks Q4 2026), CFO vacancy (since 13 Nov 2025), COO change (Sept 2025) — execution risk.
- Government policy: Budget exposure (stamp duty, planning levies, Section 106 reform); Building Safety Levy.
- Interest-rate-sensitive demand: Help-to-Buy ended March 2023; FTB demand now dependent on the unsubsidised mortgage market.
- Cyclical and regional: London apartments market structurally slower; regional volumes more resilient.
11. Recent Developments
- 27 April 2026: Share price ~257p; no fresh material RNS in the immediate 48-hour window.
- 23 April 2026: Press coverage flags 13-year low at 266p.
- 15 April 2026 — Q3 FY26 trading update: 13 weeks to 29 March 2026 — 3,274 quarterly completions / 10,718 YTD; reservation rate +6.3% YoY; FY26 completions guidance 17,200–17,800 reiterated; £100 m run-rate synergies confirmed; 22.9 m shares bought YTD for £83.7 m. Same day: Director PDMR shareholding RNS (Bickerstaffe purchase 5,687 @ £2.622).
- 4 March 2026: CEO succession announcement — Dean Banks named successor to David Thomas (joins Q4 2026).
- 11 February 2026 — H1 FY26 interim results: Completions 7,444 (+4.7%); adj PBT £199.9 m (-13.6%); operating margin 8.0% (HY25 8.9%); statutory PBT £156.2 m; net cash £173.9 m; £30 m+ synergies in H1; £50 m FY26 target.
- 13 November 2025: CFO Mike Scott departs with immediate effect; Michael Passmore Interim Deputy CFO; permanent search ongoing.
- 5 November 2025: Board changes — Halai (Audit & Risk chair); Dulieu (SID).
- 30 October 2025: CMA accepts commitments from seven housebuilders incl. BTRW; £100 m collective contribution to affordable housing (no liability admitted).
- 17 September 2025 — FY25 full-year results: Adj PBT £591.6 m, revenue £5.58 bn, completions 16,565 (+18.3%), DPS 17.6p (+8.6%), net cash £772.6 m.
- 6 September 2025: Steven Boyes retired as COO; Mike Roberts appointed.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 15 May 2026 | Interim dividend payment (FY26) |
| 15 July 2026 | FY26 trading update (pre-close) |
| 16 September 2026 | FY26 annual results announcement |
| 4 November 2026 | AGM and trading update |
| Q4 2026 | Dean Banks joins as CEO; David Thomas continues until March 2027 |
| FY26 (year to June 2026) | Completions guidance 17,200–17,800; £50 m FY26 synergies; ~£100 m+ buyback |
| Medium term | 22,000 homes / year aspiration |
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Barratt Redrow is the UK's largest private-sector housebuilder by completions, operating through Barratt Homes, David Wilson Homes, Redrow, Barratt London and the Wilson Bowden commercial JV across 30+ divisional offices. Revenue is generated from new-build family homes and apartments at a group ASP of £344k in FY25, with 16,565 completions split 79.3% private, 17.5% affordable and 3.2% JV. The structural driver is integration of the Redrow merger: the synergy programme has been raised from £90m to "at least £100m", with £97m delivered by H1 FY26 and run-rate £100m confirmed in the Q3 FY26 update on 15 April 2026. Near-term catalysts include FY26 completions guidance of 17,200–17,800, a medium-term aspiration of 22,000 homes per year, an active £100m+ annual buyback, and CEO succession with Dean Banks joining in Q4 2026.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would come from H1 FY26 operating margin (8.0%) recovering toward FY25's 10.7%, completions landing within guidance, and the £1bn+ building safety provision stabilising. Materialisation of further legacy reinforced concrete frame scope, build-cost inflation exceeding the 1–2% FY26 guide, adverse mortgage-rate moves, CMA escalation, or disruption from the concurrent CEO, CFO and COO transitions would invalidate it.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- InvalidatesAny disclosure that directly contradicts a material claim in the bull case.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 28 Apr 2026.
