BP plc (BP.L) - Company Research

Last Updated: 17 September 2026

BP has lost a chief executive and two chairmen in nine months. Murray Auchincloss stepped down with immediate effect on 18 December 2025. Albert Manifold took the chair on 1 October 2025 and was removed on 26 May 2026 over what the board called "serious concerns raised to the Board related to important governance standards, oversight and conduct". Meg O'Neill, previously chief executive of Woodside Energy, became chief executive on 1 April 2026. Ian Tyler, interim chair from May, was confirmed as permanent chair on 2 September 2026. In February 2026 the board suspended share buybacks outright and formally retired the guidance to distribute 30% to 40% of operating cash flow to shareholders.

Against that, BP has just reported one of the strongest quarters in its recent history: underlying replacement cost profit of $5.7bn in the second quarter of 2026, more than double the $2.4bn of a year earlier. The difficulty is separating the two stories. Brent averaged $103.85 a barrel in the quarter against BP's own $70 planning assumption, and its refining indicator margin averaged $29.6 a barrel against a $10.8 assumption. On BP's published sensitivities those two gaps alone are worth roughly $20bn of annualised pre-tax profit. This report lays out the figures — statutory and non-statutory, side by side and clearly labelled — from BP's own filings with the London Stock Exchange and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. No analyst opinions, no price targets, no ratings.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Listings	London Stock Exchange Main Market, ticker BP. (ISIN GB0007980591, SEDOL 798059). New York Stock Exchange American Depositary Shares, ticker BP (ISIN US0556221044), at a ratio of one ADS to six ordinary shares, with JPMorgan Chase Bank as depositary
Index membership	FTSE 100. The ADR line is not an S&P 500 constituent
Sector	Integrated oil and gas
Headquarters	1 St James's Square, London SW1Y 4PD, England
Incorporated	1909 in England and Wales; renamed BP p.l.c. in 2001
Employees	93,700 at 31 December 2025, down from 100,500 a year earlier. By segment: gas and low carbon energy 5,600; oil production and operations 9,300; customers and products 66,900; other businesses and corporate 11,800
CEO / Leadership	Meg O'Neill, Chief Executive Officer since 1 April 2026, previously chief executive of Woodside Energy. Deputy Chief Executive Officer: Carol Howle, who served as interim chief executive from 18 December 2025. Chief Financial Officer: Kate Thomson. Chair: Ian Tyler, interim from 26 May 2026 and confirmed permanent on 2 September 2026
Reporting currency	United States dollars, despite the primary London listing
Revenue (FY2025, statutory)	$192,549m of total revenues and other income, of which $189,335m was sales and other operating revenues. Down 1.1% on FY2024
Profit attributable to shareholders (FY2025, statutory)	$55m, against $381m in FY2024 — effectively wiped out by $6,037m of net impairments and losses on sale of businesses and fixed assets
Underlying replacement cost profit (FY2025, non-statutory)	$7,485m, against $8,915m in FY2024. This is BP's own adjusted earnings measure
Upstream production (FY2025)	2,312 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day
Dividend per ordinary share (FY2025)	32.960 cents announced for the year (8.00c, 8.32c, 8.32c, 8.32c). The second quarter 2026 dividend was raised 4% to 8.660 cents, an annualised 34.64 cents
Dividend yield	Approximately 4.3% to 4.5% depending on the listing and source, on the mid-September 2026 price
Market capitalisation	Approximately $117.8bn, or roughly £89.0bn derived from 15,704,544,735 ordinary shares in issue excluding treasury at the 566.80p close of 16 September 2026. Third-party figures vary because some are struck on a stale price
Buyback status	Suspended outright since 10 February 2026. Buyback spend in the first half of 2026 was $114m, against $2,511m in the first half of 2025
SEC registrant number	Central Index Key 0000313807. BP is a foreign private issuer and files an annual report on Form 20-F with quarterly results on Form 6-K

2. The Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• The cash engine is intact and very large: BP generated $24,493m of operating cash flow in FY2025 and $13,718m in the first half of 2026 alone, including $10,858m in the second quarter. Capital expenditure is guided at $13.5bn to $14.0bn for 2026, leaving meaningful surplus at current prices.
• The divestment programme is actually delivering: against a $20bn target by 2027, BP had announced or completed more than $11bn in the first year. Castrol is agreed at a $10.1bn enterprise value for the 65% stake, worth roughly $6bn net; United States onshore wind, the Netherlands retail network, the Gelsenkirchen refinery and Permian midstream interests have all completed.
• Cost reduction has been raised twice and is running ahead: the structural cost target went from $4bn to $5bn at the February 2025 capital markets update, to $5.5bn to $6.5bn on the Castrol decision, to roughly $6.5bn to $7.5bn by 2027 on the Gelsenkirchen sale — around 30% of the 2023 cost base. Some $2.8bn had been delivered by the end of 2025.
• The dividend is the stated first priority and is still growing: BP expects to grow the dividend per ordinary share by at least 4% a year, and did so at the second quarter of 2026, raising it to 8.660 cents. With the buyback suspended, the balance sheet absorbs the rest, which reduces the risk of the distribution itself being cut.
• The valuation discount to peers is wide and measurable: at roughly $118bn BP is sixth of the seven Western majors, about 17% of ExxonMobil's size and 43% of Shell's. On its own underlying measure the trailing multiple is around nine times, well below where the larger integrated peers trade.
• New leadership has an explicit and narrow mandate: O'Neill's five stated priorities — strengthen the balance sheet, simplify the portfolio "based on value, not sentiment nor history", invest with greater discipline, drive operational excellence, hardwire accountability — are a direct repudiation of the strategy that produced the write-offs, and she arrives without ownership of those decisions.

Bear Case

• The second quarter of 2026 was a price event, not a run-rate: Brent averaged $103.85 a barrel against BP's $70 planning assumption and the refining indicator margin averaged $29.6 against $10.8. On BP's own published sensitivities — $340m of pre-tax replacement cost profit per dollar of Brent and $450m per dollar of refining margin — those gaps are worth roughly $20bn annualised. Strip them out and the picture changes entirely.
• Net debt has not moved despite selling the furniture: $22,182m at 31 December 2025 and $22,251m at 30 June 2026, essentially unchanged after more than $11bn of announced or completed disposals. The target is $14bn to $18bn by the end of 2027, which requires $5bn to $8bn of reduction in roughly eighteen months.
• Governance instability is now the headline risk, not a footnote: a chief executive out with immediate effect, a chairman removed for conduct after eight months, a senior independent director leaving at the 2027 annual general meeting, and two board-proposed special resolutions defeated at the April 2026 meeting — one on climate disclosure by 52.53% against. Roughly 18% voted against the chairman's own election five weeks before he was removed.
• The buyback is gone, not reduced: the pace went from $1.75bn a quarter to $750m in April 2025 to zero in February 2026, and the 30% to 40% distribution framework was formally retired. It had not been reinstated at the second quarter 2026 results. For a shareholder base that bought BP for the return of capital, that is a change of contract.
• BP has written off billions against its own strategy: FY2025 net impairments and losses on sale were $6,037m, including $5.4bn of asset impairments plus roughly $1.1bn through equity-accounted earnings, with $3.5bn booked in the fourth quarter alone and "primarily related to our transition businesses in the gas and low carbon energy segment". Archaea Energy, bought for roughly $4.1bn in 2022, is now up for sale. O'Neill's own verdict: "we have written off too much value."
• The real leverage is larger than headline net debt suggests: total finance debt was $58,337m at 30 June 2026 against cash of $37,168m, but $13,015m of perpetual hybrid securities sit inside equity as non-controlling interests and are invisible in net debt, and a further $7,255m of Gulf of America settlement liabilities sat on the balance sheet at the end of 2025, with roughly $1.6bn of pre-tax payments guided for 2026 alone.
• Execution risk is concentrated in one deal: Castrol, the largest single piece of the divestment programme, had still not completed as at 17 September 2026, with Australian and Indian competition clearances outstanding. BP cut 2026 divestment guidance from $9bn to $10bn down to $8bn to $9bn at the second quarter. The North Sea and Archaea processes have no announced buyer, price or timetable.

3. Revenue Segments

BP announced a reorganisation into Upstream and Downstream on 9 June 2026, effective operationally from 1 July 2026. External IFRS reporting segments remain the previous four until 31 December 2026, with the new two-segment structure used for external reporting from 1 January 2027. FY2025 and every 2026 quarter therefore use the segments below. Percentages are calculated on third-party sales and other operating revenues, from the segmental note of the Annual Report and Form 20-F 2025.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Customers and products	78.6% ($148,740m third-party; $148,783m including inter-segment)	Convenience and mobility retail including TravelCenters of America, Aral, ampm, Thorntons and bp pulse; Castrol lubricants; Air bp aviation fuels; business-to-business; midstream; bioenergy; plus all refining and oil trading. Replacement cost profit before interest and tax of $4,100m, or $5,272m on an underlying basis
Gas and low carbon energy	20.3% ($38,501m third-party; $40,333m including inter-segment)	Gas production, LNG, gas marketing and trading, biogas through Archaea, solar through Lightsource bp, offshore wind through the JERA Nex bp joint venture, plus hydrogen and carbon capture. Replacement cost profit before interest and tax of $1,330m, or $5,367m underlying. This is the segment that absorbed most of the FY2025 impairments
Oil production and operations	0.9% ($1,651m third-party; $24,527m including inter-segment)	Oil exploration and production — the Gulf of America, bpx energy in the Permian and Eagle Ford, Azerbaijan, Angola through Azule, Iraq, the North Sea and the Aker BP stake. Almost all output is sold internally to other segments, which is why third-party revenue is tiny. The largest profit contributor at $8,558m of replacement cost profit before interest and tax, $9,414m underlying
Other businesses and corporate	0.2% ($443m third-party; $2,232m including inter-segment)	Technology, bp ventures, shipping, corporate functions and residual Gulf of America oil spill costs. A replacement cost loss before interest and tax of $40m, and an underlying loss of $648m

The percentages above are the single most misleading numbers in BP's accounts and are worth stating plainly. On a third-party basis customers and products looks like roughly 79% of revenue while contributing only about 27% of underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax; oil production and operations looks like under 1% of revenue while contributing roughly 48% of the profit. That is the classic integrated-oil optical distortion, caused by upstream selling its output internally. Measured on revenue including inter-segment sales the split is customers and products 68.9%, gas and low carbon energy 18.7%, oil production and operations 11.4% and other businesses 1.0%. Group replacement cost profit before interest and tax was $13,993m in FY2025, or $19,450m underlying, reconciling to the statutory $55m attributable profit after $4,896m of finance costs, $6,785m of tax, $1,240m of non-controlling interests and $1,351m of inventory holding losses net of a $334m tax credit.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Three engines. Upstream sells equity production of oil and gas at realisations linked to Brent, Henry Hub and regional markers — in the second quarter of 2026 BP realised $94.09 a barrel for liquids in gas and low carbon energy and $84.10 in oil production and operations, on unit production costs of $6.62 a barrel of oil equivalent. Downstream refines crude at five remaining refineries following the Gelsenkirchen disposal, and sells fuels, convenience goods, lubricants and aviation fuel. Supply, trading and shipping runs a large physical and paper book across oil and gas, which BP describes as a structural advantage; O'Neill called the new Upstream and Downstream model "supported by our world-class trading business. This integrated model is a competitive advantage."

Where the advantage is real and where it is asserted. The measurable advantages are scale and operational reliability: bp-operated upstream plant reliability was 96.1% in FY2025, up from 95.2%, and refining availability 96.3%, up from 94.3%. The refining indicator margin averaged $12.8 a barrel in FY2025 against $10.7 in FY2024. The trading advantage, by contrast, is asserted rather than demonstrated, because BP publishes no trading profit and loss line at all — only qualitative commentary such as "the oil trading contribution for the second quarter and first half was significantly higher compared with the same periods in 2025". Anyone underwriting the trading business is taking management's word for its size and consistency.

The reserve position is the binding constraint. Net proved reserves at 31 December 2025 were 3,447 million barrels of liquids and 15,916 billion cubic feet of natural gas, a combined 6,191 million barrels of oil equivalent, down from 6,248 million a year earlier and 6,759 million in 2023. The organic proved reserves replacement ratio improved sharply to 90% in FY2025 from 50% in FY2024, with a target of 100% by the end of 2027. Against FY2025 production of 2,312 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, that implies a reserve life of roughly 7.3 years — short by supermajor standards, and the reason the production growth target to 2030 depends on the major project pipeline rather than the existing base.

What BP has stopped telling you. Three retail and transition metrics that mattered to the previous strategy have quietly disappeared. BP retired the strategic convenience sites key performance indicator at the start of 2025 and did not track it during the year, so there is no current figure. It no longer publishes a group retail site count, disclosing only that it exited roughly 5% of company-owned sites in 2025 and targets roughly 10% by 2027. It no longer discloses a group total for electric vehicle charge points, and says it is concentrating that investment on four core markets: Germany, the United Kingdom, China and the United States. Return on average capital employed, which BP does still publish, was 13.9% in FY2025 against 14.2% in FY2024, 18.1% in FY2023 and 30.5% in FY2022, with a target of more than 16% in 2027.

5. Financial Health

Revenue, basic earnings per share and long-term debt below are statutory figures as reported under IFRS. Underlying replacement cost profit per ordinary share is BP's own non-statutory adjusted earnings measure, which excludes inventory holding gains and losses and adjusting items including impairments. The two must not be mixed. All figures were cross-checked against BP's XBRL company facts filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission under Central Index Key 0000313807. Long-term debt is the non-current portion of finance debt.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	164,195	+50.5%	37.57c	63.65c	21.63c	$55,619m
FY2022	248,891	+51.6%	(13.10)c	145.63c	24.082c	$43,746m
FY2023	213,032	−14.4%	87.78c	79.69c	28.420c	$48,670m
FY2024	194,629	−8.6%	2.38c	54.40c	31.270c	$55,073m
FY2025	192,549	−1.1%	0.35c	48.02c	32.960c	$54,602m

Revenue above is total revenues and other income, the statutory income statement top line. Sales and other operating revenues, the narrower measure, were $157,739m, $241,392m, $210,130m, $189,185m and $189,335m across the same five years. The current portion of finance debt was $5,557m, $3,198m, $3,284m, $4,474m and $3,356m, giving total finance debt of $61,176m, $46,944m, $51,954m, $59,547m and $57,958m. The single most important line in the table is the divergence between the two earnings columns: statutory basic earnings per share collapsed from 87.78 cents in FY2023 to 2.38 cents in FY2024 to 0.35 cents in FY2025, while BP's own underlying measure fell only from 79.69 cents to 54.40 cents to 48.02 cents. The entire gap is impairments and adjusting items. Statutory multiples calculated on the FY2025 figure alone are meaningless.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (published 4 Aug 2026)	$70,114m	36.92c	24.77c
Q1 2026 (published 28 Apr 2026)	$53,371m	20.67c	24.83c
Q4 2025 (published 10 Feb 2026)	$47,742m	10.00c	(22.21)c
Q3 2025 (published 4 Nov 2025)	$49,250m	14.24c	7.48c
Q2 2025 (published 5 Aug 2025)	$47,677m	15.03c	10.41c
Q1 2025 (published 29 Apr 2025)	$47,880m	8.75c	4.35c
FY2025 total	$192,549m	48.02c	0.35c

Underlying replacement cost profit by quarter was $5,732m, $3,198m, $1,541m, $2,210m, $2,353m and $1,381m respectively; attributable profit was $3,911m, $3,842m, a loss of $3,422m, $1,161m, $1,629m and $687m. The fourth quarter of 2025 loss is where the $3.5bn of impairments landed. For the first half of 2026 as a whole, revenue was $123,485m, underlying replacement cost profit $8,930m and attributable profit $7,753m.

Cash flow and balance sheet, FY2025. Net cash provided by operating activities was $24,493m, down from $27,297m. Expenditure on property, plant and equipment, intangible and other assets was $13,221m; BP's wider total cash capital expenditure measure was $14,533m and its organic capital expenditure $13.6bn. Depreciation, depletion and amortisation charged to the income statement was $17,822m, rising to $18,165m in the cash flow statement once exploration expenditure written off is included. Statutory profit before interest and taxation was $12,642m; replacement cost profit before interest and tax was $13,993m and the underlying figure $19,450m. BP discloses adjusted EBITDA of $37,615m for FY2025, against $38,012m in FY2024. Dividends paid to shareholders were $5,059m and net share repurchases $4,486m across 836 million shares.

On the balance sheet at 31 December 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $36,556m, of which $4,725m was restricted, against total finance debt of $57,958m, split $41,264m fixed rate and $16,694m floating. BP's own net debt measure was $22,182m, giving gearing of 23.1%, or 32.5% including leases and $35,686m of net debt including leases. Three items sit outside that headline and matter for any enterprise value calculation: $15,955m of perpetual subordinated hybrid securities carried in equity as non-controlling interests; $7,255m of Gulf of America oil spill settlement payables, of which $1,520m current; and $13,504m of lease liabilities implied by the gap between net debt and net debt including leases. BP's own broadest measure — net debt plus hybrids plus leases plus Gulf of America liabilities — was $57.8bn at the end of 2025, falling to $53.6bn at 30 June 2026. Total equity was $74,000m, of which BP shareholders' equity $53,052m and non-controlling interests $20,948m. Total assets were $278,526m.

At 30 June 2026 finance debt was $5,888m current and $52,449m non-current, a total of $58,337m, against cash of $37,168m and net debt of $22,251m. Hybrids had fallen to $13,015m after BP Capital Markets redeemed €2.5bn in the second quarter, with a further $1.0bn repayment planned in the third quarter and a stated intention to cut corporate hybrid financing by roughly $4.3bn to around $9bn by the end of 2027. Total equity was $76,420m. First half 2026 operating cash flow was $13,718m on capital expenditure of $6,376m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Share price	566.80p on the London Stock Exchange and $45.38 for the American Depositary Share, both at the close of 16 September 2026. The London intraday range that day was 562.20p to 582.50p on volume of 32.7 million shares
Market cap	Approximately $117.8bn, or roughly £89.0bn derived from 15,704,544,735 ordinary shares excluding treasury, per BP's own share capital filing as at 31 August 2026, at the 566.80p close. A further 781,768,259 shares are held in treasury. The London Stock Exchange page quotes £91.13bn but that is struck on the stale 15 September close of 580.30p
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	Approximately 21.7 times, on trailing twelve month statutory basic earnings per share of 34.87 cents per ordinary share — the four quarters from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, being 7.48c less 22.21c plus 24.83c plus 24.77c, equating to $2.092 per ADS against the $45.38 ADS price. On the FY2025 figure alone, with basic earnings per share of 0.35 cents after $6,037m of net impairments and losses on sale, the ratio exceeds 2,000 times and is not a meaningful number. On BP's underlying replacement cost measure the same trailing four quarters produced 81.83 cents per ordinary share, or $4.910 per ADS, implying approximately 9.2 times — that is the multiple the market is actually paying
P/E (forward)	Sources disagree materially: approximately 8.4 times per one retail data provider and approximately 10.3 times per another, both as at 16 September 2026, on different consensus earnings bases. These are third-party consensus estimates, not company guidance, and BP publishes no earnings forecast. The spread itself is informative — it reflects genuine disagreement about what oil price to capitalise after a quarter in which Brent averaged $103.85
P/S (TTM)	0.53 times (market cap $117.8bn divided by trailing twelve month total revenues and other income of $220,477m, being the four quarters from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026). On FY2025 revenue of $192,549m the ratio is 0.61 times
Enterprise value	Approximately $139.2bn (market cap $117.8bn plus total finance debt $57.96bn minus cash and cash equivalents $36.56bn, per the 31 December 2025 balance sheet). On the 30 June 2026 balance sheet the figure is almost identical at approximately $138.9bn, using finance debt of $58.34bn and cash of $37.17bn. Adding the perpetual subordinated hybrid securities that BP carries inside equity as non-controlling interests — $15.96bn at the end of 2025, $13.02bn at 30 June 2026 — raises enterprise value to approximately $155.1bn and $152.0bn respectively. The hybrid adjustment is not optional for a like-for-like comparison with peers that fund themselves with conventional debt
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Approximately 4.6 times (enterprise value $139.2bn divided by FY2025 EBITDA of $30.46bn; EBITDA equals statutory profit before interest and taxation $12,642m plus depreciation, depletion and amortisation $17,822m from the income statement). Including hybrids in enterprise value the multiple is approximately 5.1 times. Against BP's own disclosed adjusted EBITDA of $37,615m the figure falls to approximately 3.7 times. FY2025 statutory EBITDA is materially depressed by $6,037m of net impairments and losses on sale of businesses and fixed assets, of which $3.5bn was booked in the fourth quarter alone, so the adjusted comparison is the more representative of the two. Computed on the FY2025 full year, BP's last complete reporting period, because BP does not publish a quarterly EBITDA figure. The cash flow statement carries a wider depreciation figure of $18,165m including exploration write-offs; the narrower income statement charge is used here
P/FCF	Approximately 10.5 times (market cap $117.8bn divided by free cash flow of $11.27bn; free cash flow equals net cash provided by operating activities $24,493m minus expenditure on property, plant and equipment, intangible and other assets $13,221m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). On BP's wider total cash capital expenditure measure of $14,533m, which includes acquisitions and investments in joint ventures, free cash flow is approximately $9.96bn and the multiple approximately 11.8 times. Note that BP retired its own "surplus or deficit" free cash flow measure alongside the distribution framework in February 2026, and publishes no absolute dollar figure for its current "adjusted free cash flow" measure — only a growth rate of roughly 55% in 2025 on its own price assumptions
52-week high	609.40p on the London listing, or $48.27 for the ADS. The current price sits roughly 6% below the high
52-week low	399.35p on the London listing, or $32.72 for the ADS. The current price sits roughly 39% above the low
Short interest (% of float)	0.25% of float, or 6.56 million ADS, per the most recent settlement date reported by two retail data providers, down from 9.33 million the prior month. An alternative source gives 0.42% of public float, or 11,007,637 ADS worth $454.68m, at a 15 July 2026 record date. Either figure is negligible for a company of this size — there is no meaningful short position in BP
Days to cover	0.71 days on the lower short interest figure, or 1.12 days on the 15 July 2026 record date. Both are well under two days, consistent with the negligible short interest and BP's very high trading liquidity
Price/book	Approximately 2.2 times on BP shareholders' equity of $53,052m at 31 December 2025, or approximately 2.0 times on the $58,428m reported at 30 June 2026. Included here because the FY2025 statutory earnings base is distorted by impairments, which makes book value a more stable reference point than the statutory price to earnings ratio
Dividend yield	Approximately 4.3% to 4.5% depending on listing and source, on the 8.660 cents quarterly rate declared for the second quarter of 2026, an annualised 34.64 cents. BP expects to grow the dividend per ordinary share by at least 4% a year, subject to quarterly board discretion

For live pricing, oil and gas correlations and multi-timeframe charts on BP and its peers, see the ChartsView Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

The framework and what has changed inside it. BP's February 2025 capital markets update cut low-carbon spending and raised oil and gas investment. That framework survives but has been tightened twice since: the buyback was suspended in February 2026, and O'Neill added an execution overlay in August 2026. Four medium-term targets, all to the end of 2027, remain in place. Adjusted free cash flow growth of more than 20% compound annually from 2024, which grew roughly 55% in 2025 on BP's own price assumptions and is ahead of plan. Net debt of $14bn to $18bn, against $22.3bn at 30 June 2026. Structural cost reduction of roughly $6.5bn to $7.5bn, raised twice from the original $4bn to $5bn, with $2.8bn delivered by the end of 2025. Group return on average capital employed of more than 16%, against 13.9% reported in 2025. The target price basis, updated on 4 August 2026, is $70 Brent, $4 per million British thermal units Henry Hub and a $10.8 refining indicator margin, all in 2024 real terms.

The upstream plan. Production of 2.3 to 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035, against 2,312 thousand in FY2025 and guidance of 2,180 to 2,270 thousand for 2026. Ten new major projects to start by the end of 2027, eight of which were online as at July 2026 following the Atlantis major facility expansion, plus a further eight to ten by the end of 2030. Upstream capital expenditure of roughly $10.5bn a year to 2027, of which roughly $10bn on oil and gas at a 70:30 oil to gas split. A reserves replacement ratio of 100% by the end of 2027, against 90% achieved in FY2025.

The transition plan, materially shrunk. Transition business capital expenditure of $1.5bn to $2bn a year to 2027, with low carbon energy alone below $800m a year. Actual transition investment in 2025 was $2.3bn including $0.8bn inorganic. Set against that, BP has sold United States onshore wind, deconsolidated offshore wind into the JERA Nex bp joint venture, put Archaea Energy up for sale, moved renewables into the Technology function and is closing bp Ventures. The direction is unambiguous.

The divestment programme. A $20bn target by 2027, with more than $11bn announced or completed in the first year and 2026 guidance of $8bn to $9bn, cut from $9bn to $10bn at the second quarter. Completed: United States onshore wind to LS Power in December 2025; the Netherlands mobility and convenience network and bp pulse to Catom in December 2025; Permian and Eagle Ford midstream non-controlling interests to Sixth Street for $1.5bn in the fourth quarter of 2025; the Gelsenkirchen refinery, Bottrop tank farm and DHC Solvent Chemie to Klesch in July 2026, cutting BP to five refineries; and 10% of Pan American Energy Group in June 2026, taking BP from 50% to 40%. Agreed but not complete: Castrol, 65% to Stonepeak at a $10.1bn enterprise value for roughly $6bn net, cleared in Europe and China but awaiting Australian and Indian clearance, expected to complete by the end of 2026; Austrian mobility and convenience to volenergy; Bay du Nord to Equinor on undisclosed terms; and Kirkuk interests to ConocoPhillips and TPAO. In process with no buyer or price announced: the United Kingdom North Sea business, five production hubs and roughly 1,100 employees, marketed from 31 July 2026; and Archaea Energy, marketed from 4 August 2026.

Capital returns. The dividend is the stated first priority, expected to grow at least 4% per ordinary share per year subject to quarterly board discretion, and was raised 4% to 8.660 cents at the second quarter of 2026. Buybacks are suspended and the 30% to 40% of operating cash flow distribution guidance has been formally retired, with excess cash allocated to the balance sheet. The stated credit ambition is to improve credit metrics within an A grade range; current ratings are A plus stable from Fitch, A1 stable from Moody's and A minus positive from Standard and Poor's.

What O'Neill has and has not committed to. No new numeric financial targets were set at the second quarter of 2026. Instead she set out five qualitative priorities — strengthening the balance sheet, simplifying the portfolio "based on value, not sentiment nor history", investing with greater discipline, driving operational excellence and hardwiring high performance and accountability — under the slogan "focus, perform, grow". The one structural commitment is the Upstream and Downstream reorganisation, announced 9 June 2026 and operational from 1 July, with Gordon Birrell as executive vice president Upstream and Richard Harding interim executive vice president Downstream, and external reporting segments changing from 1 January 2027. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 was raised to $13.5bn to $14.0bn, explicitly "reflecting decision to delay asset farm downs and capture better value".

8. Competitive Landscape

Market capitalisations below were captured on 16 and 17 September 2026 from two independent sources that agree within 1.7% on every name, and are all measured on the United States listing, which for Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni and BP means the depositary receipt line. All are stated in United States dollars. The key 2025 metric for each is taken from that company's own results release or securities filing.

Peer	Market cap (September 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	$677.31bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 GAAP net income attributable to ExxonMobil of $28,844m, down from $33,680m, on net production of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day — its highest in more than forty years. Roughly 5.7 times BP's market capitalisation
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	$417.91bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 adjusted earnings of $13,521m, down from $18,256m, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $7.29, GAAP earnings of $12,299m and cash flow from operations of $33.9bn
Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL)	$276.47bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 adjusted earnings of $18,529m, down 22% from $23,716m, with income attributable to shareholders of $17,838m, up 11%. Shell earned roughly 2.5 times BP's underlying profit at roughly 2.3 times the market capitalisation — the closest and most relevant comparison
TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE)	$204.05bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 adjusted net income of $15,587m, down 15% from $18,264m, with net income attributable to the group of $13,127m
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	$161.36bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 adjusted earnings of $7.7bn, or $6.16 per share, down from $9.2bn and $7.79, with GAAP earnings of $8.0bn on production of 2,375 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. A pure upstream producer with similar volumes to BP at roughly 1.4 times BP's market capitalisation
BP plc (NYSE: BP)	$117.99bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 underlying replacement cost profit of $7,485m on a non-statutory basis, against statutory profit attributable to shareholders of just $55m, on production of 2,312 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day
Eni S.p.A. (NYSE: E)	$80.13bn, priced 17 September 2026	FY2025 adjusted net profit of €4,989m, down 5% from €5,257m, with net profit attributable of €2,608m on production of 1.73 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Reported in euros, not dollars

The ranking at 17 September 2026 is ExxonMobil, then Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, BP and Eni. BP is sixth of seven, roughly 17% of ExxonMobil's size and 43% of Shell's. A necessary comparability warning: adjusted earnings for Shell and Chevron, adjusted net income for TotalEnergies, adjusted net profit for Eni, adjusted earnings for ConocoPhillips and BP's underlying replacement cost profit are each non-statutory measures defined differently by each company. ExxonMobil's $28.8bn is a GAAP figure. The statutory line is given alongside each so a like-for-like reading is possible.

9. Insider and Institutional Activity

Chief Executive Officer Meg O'Neill, appointed 1 April 2026, has made no dealings in BP shares other than two nil-cost awards granted to her on 29 April 2026. No open-market purchase by the new chief executive has been notified. That is the first of two clean findings in this section. The second is broader and more striking: there were no open-market purchases by any BP director or person discharging managerial responsibility in calendar 2026. Every acquisition on record was an award, a vesting, a dividend reinvestment or a routine monthly employee share plan purchase. Meanwhile five material open-market sales were notified in the first half of the year. BP is a foreign private issuer and is exempt from Section 16 of the United States Securities Exchange Act, so there are no Form 4 filings; dealings are notified under the Market Abuse Regulation via regulatory announcement and republished in BP's monthly Form 6-K filings, which is the source used below.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Carol Howle (Deputy CEO)	18 May 2026	Sell	350,000 ordinary	£5.594192	£1,957,967	Open market, London Stock Exchange
Douglas Dryburgh (person closely associated with Kerry Dryburgh, EVP people and culture)	19 Mar 2026	Sell	228,847 ordinary	£5.654954	£1,294,119	Open market, London Stock Exchange
Michael Sosso (EVP legal)	23 Mar 2026	Sell	14,308.526 ADS	$43.240 average	$618,701	Open market, New York Stock Exchange
William Lin (EVP gas and low carbon energy)	17 Mar 2026	Sell	100,000 ordinary	£5.520075	£552,008	Open market, London Stock Exchange
William Lin (EVP gas and low carbon energy)	17 Mar 2026	Sell	10,000 ADS, equal to 60,000 ordinary	$44.156987 average	$441,570	Open market, New York Stock Exchange
Meg O'Neill (CEO)	29 Apr 2026	Award	1,901,277 ordinary	Nil cost, £4.84 market value	£9,202,181	Restricted Share Award under a bespoke buy-out plan replacing remuneration forfeited on leaving Woodside; vesting over up to five years
Meg O'Neill (CEO)	29 Apr 2026	Award	809,232 ordinary	Nil cost, £4.84 market value	£3,916,683	Performance Share Award under the same buy-out plan, subject to relative total shareholder return
Meg O'Neill (CEO)	29 Apr 2026	Award	1,415,701 ordinary	Nil cost, £5.18 basis	£7,333,331	Executive Directors Incentive Plan performance shares 2026 to 2028, at 500% of salary pro-rated from 1 April
Carol Howle (Deputy CEO)	29 Apr 2026	Award	1,455,598 ordinary	Nil cost, £5.18 basis	£7,539,997	Executive Directors Incentive Plan performance shares 2026 to 2028
Kate Thomson (CFO)	29 Apr 2026	Award	776,640 ordinary	Nil cost, £5.18 basis	£4,022,995	Executive Directors Incentive Plan performance shares at 450% of salary
Kate Thomson (CFO)	06 Aug 2026	Option exercise	105,939 ordinary	£3.15	£333,708	Reinvent bp share plan
Gordon Birrell (EVP Upstream)	25 Jun 2026	Grant of options	2,650	£4.12 exercise price	£10,918	BP ShareSave United Kingdom Plan, all-employee scheme
Kate Thomson (CFO)	10 Sep 2026	Buy	3	£5.571	£16.71	BP ShareMatch United Kingdom Plan, routine monthly all-employee purchase

The 2026 executive incentive awards are measured on relative total shareholder return at 30%, return on average capital employed at 25%, adjusted free cash flow at 25% and operated emissions reduction at 20%. Further nil-cost Share Value Plan and Restricted Share Plan grants were made on 27 May 2026 to Carol Howle, Gordon Birrell, Kerry Dryburgh, Emeka Emembolu, William Lin and Michael Sosso, and vestings occurred on 18 February 2026 at a £4.62 release price. Dividend reinvestments took place on 1 April 2026 at £5.98324 and 1 July 2026 at £4.58242. Neither Albert Manifold nor Ian Tyler appears in any 2026 notification, and no non-executive director dealing was recorded in the year; Murray Auchincloss made no 2026 dealings.

On the institutional side, the last hard data point on Elliott Management is a 5.006% interest disclosed in April 2025, built through equity swaps and therefore carrying no voting rights, alongside a push for roughly $20bn of annual free cash flow by 2027 — about 40% above BP's own plan — and capital expenditure cut to around $12bn. No 2026 filing, stake change or public statement was found, so BP's current activist position should be treated as unverified rather than assumed either way.

10. Key Risks

• Commodity price sensitivity, quantified by BP itself: a one dollar per barrel move in Brent changes pre-tax replacement cost operating profit by $340m, and a ten cent move in Henry Hub by $40m, weighted roughly 80:20 between oil production and operations and gas and low carbon energy. The second quarter of 2026 was earned on Brent at $103.85 against a $70 planning price — a gap worth roughly $11.6bn annualised on BP's own arithmetic. The quarter is not a run-rate.
• Refining margin sensitivity, also quantified: a one dollar per barrel move in BP's refining indicator margin is worth $450m, revised down from $550m on 4 August 2026 after the Gelsenkirchen sale. The margin averaged $29.6 a barrel in the second quarter against a $10.8 planning assumption, an $18.8 gap worth roughly $8.5bn annualised. Refining is the single largest swing factor in the current numbers, and BP has just reduced its own exposure to it.
• Leverage that is larger than it looks: total finance debt of $58,337m at 30 June 2026 and net debt of $22,251m, essentially unchanged from $22,182m at the year end despite more than $11bn of disposals. Gearing 23.1%, or 32.5% including leases. On BP's own broadest measure — net debt plus hybrids plus leases plus Gulf of America liabilities — the figure was $53.6bn. Hybrid securities of $13,015m sit inside equity as non-controlling interests and are invisible in headline net debt. Reaching the $14bn to $18bn target requires $5bn to $8bn of reduction in eighteen months.
• Divestment execution concentrated in one transaction: Castrol, worth roughly $6bn net and the largest single piece of the $20bn programme, had not completed as at 17 September 2026 with Australian and Indian clearances outstanding. BP cut 2026 divestment guidance from $9bn to $10bn down to $8bn to $9bn. The North Sea and Archaea processes have no announced buyer, price or timetable, and Bay du Nord's consideration was not disclosed by either party. A Castrol slip past the year end pushes the net debt target materially off track.
• Gulf of America settlement payments: $7,255m of payables at 31 December 2025, split $1,520m current and $5,735m non-current, with roughly $1.6bn of pre-tax payments guided for 2026 of which $0.4bn was paid in the first quarter and $1.1bn in the second. This is a hard, dated cash drain that sits outside headline net debt and outside most peer comparisons.
• Governance instability, now the standout risk: in nine months BP lost a chief executive, appointed a chairman and then removed him for conduct, and appointed a third. At the April 2026 annual general meeting shareholders defeated two board-proposed special resolutions, including one to remove certain climate disclosures by 52.53% against, and roughly 18% voted against the chairman's election five weeks before the board removed him. The senior independent director will not stand for re-election in 2027. A board this unsettled is a poor guarantor of a multi-year deleveraging plan.
• Transition and stranded-asset risk, already crystallising in the accounts: FY2025 asset impairments of $5.4bn pre-tax plus roughly $1.1bn through equity-accounted earnings, with $3.5bn in the fourth quarter alone and "primarily related to our transition businesses in the gas and low carbon energy segment". A further $1,689m of net impairments and losses on sale followed in the first half of 2026. Archaea Energy, bought for roughly $4.1bn in 2022, is now for sale. O'Neill's own assessment at the second quarter was that "we have written off too much value".
• Takeover and strategic uncertainty: Shell issued a formal statement under Rule 2.8 of the United Kingdom City Code on 26 June 2025 confirming it had no intention of making an offer for BP, which barred it from bidding for six months. That restriction has long since lapsed and no further statement, approach or credible report was found in 2026. The factual position is that there is nothing live — but BP is now the second smallest of the Western majors with a depressed statutory earnings base, which is a structurally exposed place to stand.
• Residual Russia exposure: BP announced its decision to exit its Rosneft shareholding in February 2022, yet the FY2025 Form 20-F still lists accounting for the investments in Rosneft and Aker BP among the areas requiring the most significant judgement and estimation in preparing the financial statements. A residual accounting exposure persists; no current carrying value could be verified from the filings, so no figure is quoted here.

BP's board reduced its own list of principal risks from twenty to sixteen in 2025, reorganising rather than reducing exposure. Named risks include commodity prices and market environment, accessing and producing hydrocarbon resources, climate change and the transition to a lower carbon economy, geopolitical exposure, liquidity and capital access, partner and third-party risk, digital and cyber security, security, process safety and environmental risks, and ethical misconduct and non-compliance. For the macroeconomic and inventory releases that drive the oil price assumptions underneath every figure in this report, see the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

11. Recent Developments

• 01 Oct 2025 — Albert Manifold becomes chair as Helge Lund steps down. The former CRH chief executive joined the board on 1 September 2025 as a non-executive director and chair-elect, having been announced on 21 July 2025, and took the chair on 1 October.
• 04 Nov 2025 — Third quarter 2025 results. Underlying replacement cost profit of $2,210m and attributable profit of $1,161m on basic earnings per share of 7.48 cents, with operating cash flow of $7,786m and net debt of $26,054m. BP said it intended to execute a further $0.75bn of buybacks before the fourth quarter results.
• 09 Dec 2025 — United States onshore wind sale completes. LS Power completed the acquisition of bp Wind Energy, comprising ten operating assets across Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Hawaii and Idaho, having agreed the deal in July 2025.
• 18 Dec 2025 — Chief executive steps down with immediate effect. Murray Auchincloss left as chief executive and director immediately; Carol Howle became interim chief executive; and Meg O'Neill, then chief executive of Woodside Energy, was appointed to start on 1 April 2026. Auchincloss remained in an advisory role to December 2026.
• 24 Dec 2025 — Castrol agreed to Stonepeak at a $10.1bn enterprise value. BP agreed to sell 65% of Castrol for roughly $6bn net, retaining 35% in a joint venture, with CPP Investments investing up to $1.05bn for an indirect stake and BP holding optionality to sell its residual stake after a two-year lock-up. BP's largest single divestment.
• 10 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results and the buyback suspension. FY2025 underlying replacement cost profit of $7,485m, with a fourth quarter attributable loss of $3,422m on $3.5bn of impairments, operating cash flow of $24,493m, net debt of $22,182m and return on average capital employed of 13.9%. The board suspended share buybacks, allocated excess cash to the balance sheet and formally retired the guidance to distribute 30% to 40% of operating cash flow.
• 19 Mar 2026 — Gelsenkirchen refinery agreed to Klesch Group. The sale covered the refinery, the Bottrop tank farm, DHC Solvent Chemie, logistics joint venture interests and related marketing, affecting roughly 1,800 employees and around 12 million tonnes of crude a year. It lifted BP's structural cost reduction target by roughly $1bn to $6.5bn to $7.5bn by 2027.
• 23 Apr 2026 — Shareholder revolt at the annual general meeting. Shareholders defeated two board-proposed special resolutions: one to remove certain climate-related disclosures, which drew 47.47% in favour against 52.53% opposed and required 75%, and one enabling virtual-only meetings. Roughly 18% voted against the election of chair Albert Manifold.
• 28 Apr 2026 — First quarter 2026 results, the first signed by Meg O'Neill. Underlying replacement cost profit of $3,198m against $1,381m a year earlier, attributable profit of $3,842m and basic earnings per share of 24.83 cents, but operating cash flow of only $2,860m after a roughly $6bn working capital build, and net debt up to $25,309m. BP announced a plan to cut corporate hybrid bond financing by roughly $4.3bn to around $9bn by the end of 2027.
• 26 May 2026 — The chairman is removed. The board "unanimously decided that Albert Manifold should no longer serve as Chair and Director with immediate effect", following "serious concerns raised to the Board related to important governance standards, oversight and conduct". Senior independent director Dame Amanda Blanc said the board "has been surprised and disappointed to learn of governance oversight and conduct issues it deems unacceptable". Ian Tyler was appointed interim chair the same day.
• 09 Jun 2026 — Reorganisation into Upstream and Downstream. Effective 1 July 2026, with Gordon Birrell as executive vice president Upstream and Richard Harding interim executive vice president Downstream, and renewables moved into the Technology function. External IFRS reporting segments remain unchanged until 31 December 2026.
• 31 Jul 2026 — The United Kingdom North Sea business is put up for sale. BP launched a process covering five production hubs — Andrew and ETAP in the central North Sea, and Glen Lyon, Clair and Clair Ridge west of Shetland — affecting roughly 1,100 employees. No BP price figure was published.
• 04 Aug 2026 — Second quarter 2026 results and a strategic reset. Underlying replacement cost profit of $5,732m, attributable profit of $3,911m, basic earnings per share of 24.77 cents and operating cash flow of $10,858m, on Brent averaging $103.85 a barrel and a refining indicator margin of $29.6. The dividend was raised 4% to 8.660 cents and net debt plus hybrids plus leases plus Gulf of America liabilities was cut more than 11% quarter on quarter to $53.6bn. Archaea Energy was put up for sale. O'Neill set out five priorities under the slogan "focus, perform, grow".
• 02 Sep 2026 — Ian Tyler confirmed as permanent chair. Effective immediately, following an internal and external search. Tyler joined the board as a non-executive director in April 2025, chairs Grafton Group and is senior independent director of Anglo American, and previously chaired Cairn Energy, Vistry Group, Affinity Water and AWE and was chief executive of Balfour Beatty from 2005 to 2013. The same announcement confirmed that Dame Amanda Blanc will not stand for re-election at the 2027 annual general meeting.

Discussion of BP, the oil majors and the wider FTSE 100 energy complex is ongoing in the ChartsView Forum.

12. Key Dates and Catalysts

• 18 Sep 2026 — Payment date for the second quarter 2026 dividend, at 8.660 cents per ordinary share, 51.96 cents per ADS and 6.4059 pence per ordinary share, the sterling rate having been set on 8 September 2026
• 30 Oct 2026 — Third quarter 2026 results and dividend announcement, confirmed on BP's own published financial calendar. Several third-party earnings trackers carry 3 or 5 November instead; BP's own calendar is the authority
• 12 Nov 2026 — Indicative ex-dividend date for the third quarter 2026 dividend on the ordinary shares. The dividend itself is not declared until 30 October
• 13 Nov 2026 — Indicative ex-dividend date for the ADS line and record date for the third quarter 2026 dividend
• 18 Dec 2026 — Indicative payment date for the third quarter 2026 dividend
• Expected Dec 2026 — Completion of the Castrol sale to Stonepeak, subject to Australian and Indian competition clearances. The largest single item in the divestment programme and the main determinant of whether the net debt trajectory holds
• 01 Jan 2027 — The new Upstream and Downstream external reporting segments take effect, replacing the current four-segment structure. This is the last set of accounts on the old basis
• Expected Feb 2027 — Fourth quarter and full year 2026 results. Not announced; BP's published calendar runs only to December 2026, and the FY2025 results were released on 10 February 2026
• Expected Apr 2027 — Annual general meeting. Not announced, though BP's filings of 31 July and 2 September 2026 both reference a 2027 meeting. The 2026 meeting was held on 23 April 2026
• TBC — Capital markets day or investor strategy update. None is announced. O'Neill delivered her strategic reset verbally within the second quarter results on 4 August 2026 and BP has made no commitment to a future investor day

Already passed in 2026: FY2025 results and the buyback suspension on 10 February, the Form 20-F filing on 6 March, the chief executive transition on 1 April, the annual general meeting on 23 April, first quarter results on 28 April, the chairman's removal on 26 May, the reorganisation announcement on 9 June, second quarter results on 4 August and the permanent chair appointment on 2 September. The two dates that matter most between now and the year end are 30 October, which will show whether the second quarter's price windfall persisted into a third quarter, and the Castrol completion, which is the difference between a credible deleveraging plan and a missed target.

---

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.