Berkeley Group (BKG.L) - Company Research
Last Updated: 26 April 2026
Berkeley Group Holdings plc (LSE: BKG) is the FTSE 100 housebuilder concentrated on London, the South East and Birmingham, with a 50,000-plot land bank, a brownfield-regeneration model and a fledgling Build to Rent platform. FY25 (year ended 30 April 2025) delivered revenue of £2.49bn, pre-tax profit of £528.9m and net cash of £337m, with 4,047 homes delivered (plus 282 in joint ventures) at an average selling price of £593,000. The company has just completed a strategy reset (1 April 2026 update) under which it has paused open-market land buying, extended its “Berkeley 2035” capital plan, cut operating costs by 25% to £150m and reaffirmed FY26 pre-tax profit guidance of £450m and a similar level for FY27. This report is published one week before the FY26 financial year-end (30 April 2026) and ahead of the FY26 results on 24 June 2026.
1. Company Snapshot
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Full name | The Berkeley Group Holdings plc |
| Ticker / ISIN | LSE: BKG / GB00BLJNXL82 |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Discretionary — Household Goods & Home Construction (London-led housebuilder) |
| Founded | 1976 (by Tony Pidgley and Jim Farrer) |
| Headquarters | Berkeley House, 19 Portsmouth Road, Cobham, Surrey, KT11 1JG |
| Executive Chair | Rob Perrins (since 5 September 2025; previously CEO 2009–2025) |
| Chief Executive | Richard Stearn (responsible for delivery of the Berkeley 2035 strategy) |
| Chief Financial Officer | Neil Eady (appointed September 2025) |
| Market capitalisation (24 Apr 2026) | ~£3.2bn |
| FY25 revenue (year to 30 Apr 2025) | £2.49bn (FY24: £2.46bn) |
| FY25 pre-tax profit | £528.9m |
| FY25 homes delivered | 4,047 + 282 in JVs (92% on brownfield land) |
| FY25 average selling price | £593,000 (-11% YoY, mix-driven) |
| Net cash (30 Apr 2025) | £337.3m |
| Land bank | ~50,000 plots + >10,000 in pipeline |
| Employees | ~2,552 (FY25) |
| Fiscal year end | 30 April |
| Exchange / Index | London Stock Exchange / FTSE 100 |
| Website | berkeleygroup.co.uk |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Distilled from the body of the report below. Factual arguments only — no opinions, ratings or price targets.
Bull Case
- Defensive balance sheet through the cycle. Net cash of £337m at FY25 year-end and a target of around £300m at the FY26 year-end (30 April 2026), even after settling more than £250m of land creditors and returning around £190m to shareholders in the year to date. The estimated future gross profit embedded in the land holdings is £6.51bn at a 24.6% gross margin.
- Strategic reset clarifies capital allocation. The 1 April 2026 strategy update extended Berkeley 2035 to 2030 timeframe, cut operating costs by 25% to £150m, paused open-market land acquisition (only JV land going forward), and committed to running down land creditors from £900m to £470m. Management is targeting £1.4bn of pre-tax profit over FY27–FY30.
- Visible profit guidance reaffirmed. FY26 pre-tax profit guidance of £450m and a similar level for FY27 reaffirmed at the 13 March 2026 trading update; 85% of FY26 sales already secured.
- £2bn shareholder return programme to 2035. Berkeley 2035 commits to a minimum £2.0bn of shareholder returns over the ten years, of which £0.9bn is to be paid by 30 September 2030. The current £283m/year programme was completed by 30 September 2025; the remainder rolls into the new framework.
- Build to Rent (BTR) platform “Berkeley Living” coming online. Two further sites transferred in H1 FY26 take the BTR portfolio to 1,122 homes; Foundry Yard at Alexandra Gate is the first scheme to open with rentals from early 2026. Target of 4,000 homes for rent across 17 brownfield sites over the decade.
Bear Case
- Strategic reset itself was a negative signal. Shares fell ~17–18% on 1 April 2026 to a near-decade low after Berkeley said it “does not believe it can make its required rate of return” on new land, citing higher costs, tighter regulation and weaker consumer confidence. ASP has dropped 11% YoY to £593,000 on mix.
- London concentration in a structurally weak market. Lloyds, Nationwide, Brunel and Lloyds Banking Group all forecast London/SE 2026 house-price growth below the UK average; high transaction costs and stretched affordability are dampening sentiment. Berkeley is the most London-exposed major UK housebuilder.
- Mansion tax and Budget overhang. The November 2025 Budget introduced a high-value council-tax surcharge on homes >£2m from April 2028 (£2,500–£7,500 p.a.), a measure that disproportionately hits Berkeley’s premium London product mix.
- Building Safety / Gateway 2 delays. Industry data show London Gateway 2 approvals took ~48 weeks on average through much of 2025 (vs the statutory 12-week target), with ~10,000 London homes awaiting approval >6 months. Berkeley has flagged a ~12-month construction-schedule lengthening.
- Forward sales declining. Forward sales fell to £1,137m at 31 October 2025 from £1,403m at 30 April 2025. H1 FY26 pre-tax profit was £254m, down 7.7% YoY.
- Modular write-off. Berkeley exited modular construction at the Northfleet factory after backing away from production in 2023; the 160,000 sq ft facility went to auction with a target of around £30m — a sunk-cost reminder of the operational risk in deploying new construction methods.
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
Berkeley is a residential-led, mixed-use property developer with a heavy bias to London and the South East of England plus Birmingham. The Group operates through three principal autonomous brands — Berkeley Homes, St George (large-scale London regeneration), St James (joint venture with National Grid for energy-related sites) and St William (a JV with National Grid on former gasworks sites) — plus St Joseph in Birmingham and the West Midlands and St Edward (JV with M&G). Berkeley Commercial handles offices and other non-residential elements within mixed-use schemes.
Berkeley does not publish a granular tenure-mix breakdown of revenue in its short results announcement, but the group’s headline reporting indicates the FY25 mix below. Roughly 92% of homes are built on regenerated brownfield land.
| Activity / brand cluster | FY25 share of group revenue (estimate) | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Private residential (Berkeley Homes, St George, St James, St Edward, St Joseph) | ~80–85% | Open-market sales of new-build flats and houses, weighted to London/South East. ASP £593,000 in FY25 |
| Affordable housing | ~10–13% | Section-106 obligation deliveries and bulk sales to Registered Providers; £580m of subsidies/contributions made in FY25 across affordable and infrastructure |
| Build to Rent (Berkeley Living) | Nascent (2 sites transferred FY25; 4 by H1 FY26 = 1,122 homes) | 10-year programme to build and operate 4,000 BTR homes across 17 brownfield sites |
| Commercial & land | Small — mixed-use offices, retail and serviced/land sales | Berkeley Commercial; opportunistic land sales |
Data gap: Berkeley does not publish a precise FY25 segmental revenue breakdown in its short-form results release; the percentages above are indicative. The full FY25 annual report (published 24 June 2026 alongside FY26 results in line with normal practice) will refine the split.
4. The Business Model
London- and South-East-focused brownfield regeneration. Berkeley specialises in long-cycle, large-scale brownfield regeneration of complex urban sites — former power stations, gasworks, industrial estates and railway lands — where it can extract long-term value from planning consents that smaller competitors cannot underwrite. 92% of FY25 deliveries were on brownfield land. The model relies on running each site over 10–20 years with multiple phases of consent, build and sale.
Long-cycle land bank. ~50,000 plots in the land bank with a further pipeline of more than 10,000. Estimated future gross profit in the land holdings is £6.51bn (H1 FY26) at an average gross margin of 24.6%. Only three new sites have been bought in the past three years; the 1 April 2026 strategy update formalised the pause on new land except via JVs.
Build to Rent (BTR) — “Berkeley Living”. Launched June 2025 alongside FY25 results. Berkeley will retain up to 4,000 homes across 17 brownfield regeneration sites and operate them on its own balance sheet rather than selling them to BTR investors. Two sites were transferred to the platform in H1 FY26, taking the portfolio to 1,122 homes (four buildings); Foundry Yard at Alexandra Gate is the first to open for letting in early 2026. Berkeley 2035 allows up to £5bn of capital to be allocated across the next decade between land investment, BTR growth and shareholder returns.
Capital returns mechanism. The historical £283m-per-year shareholder returns programme (in place since 2011) was completed by 30 September 2025, including a 33p interim dividend paid in March 2025. Under Berkeley 2035 the new commitment is a minimum of £2.0bn of shareholder returns over ten years, £0.9bn of which is to be paid by 30 September 2030. The mix between dividends and buybacks remains flexible — April 2026 has seen multiple share buybacks for cancellation (45,000–87,000 shares per tranche at 3,300–3,482p).
Premium product, premium ASP. Berkeley’s £593,000 average selling price (FY25) is the highest in the UK quoted housebuilder universe by a substantial margin and reflects the central-London skew of completions. ASP fell 11% YoY in FY25 on a mix shift to lower-priced product, not a price cut on like-for-like product.
JV partner-led growth. The St James business (with National Grid) and St William (also National Grid) and St Edward (with M&G) extend Berkeley’s capital reach without taking 100% balance-sheet risk. Going forward, Berkeley has explicitly said it will only acquire new land via JVs.
5. Financial Health
All figures from Berkeley’s RNS announcements, FY25 results (20 June 2025), H1 FY26 interims (10 December 2025) and 13 March 2026 trading update.
| Metric (£m unless stated) | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,202 | 2,348 | 2,550 | 2,463 | 2,486 |
| Gross profit (approx., implied) | ~590 | ~630 | ~740 | ~645 | ~661 |
| Gross margin (%) | ~26.8% | ~26.8% | ~29.0% | ~26.2% | ~26.6% |
| Operating profit | ~520 | ~547 | ~604 | ~480 | ~500 |
| Operating margin (%) | ~23.6% | ~23.3% | ~23.7% | ~19.5% | ~20.1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 518.1 | 551.5 | 604.0 | 557.3 | 528.9 |
| Net cash (year-end) | 1,074 | 1,066 | 410 | 532 | 337 |
| Homes delivered (excl. JVs) | 2,825 | 3,760 | 4,043 | 3,521 | 4,047 |
| Average selling price (£000) | 770 | 603 | 608 | 664 | 593 |
| Shareholder returns in year | ~282 | ~282 | ~282 | ~283 | 381.5 |
| Half-year period | H1 FY24 (to 31 Oct 23) | H1 FY25 (to 31 Oct 24) | H1 FY26 (to 31 Oct 25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (~£m) | ~1,180 | ~1,180 | ~1,094 (implied) |
| Pre-tax profit (£m) | 298.0 | 275.1 | 254 |
| Pre-tax profit YoY | −7.7% | −7.7% | −7.7% |
| Operating margin | ~22% | ~21% | 20.8% |
| Net cash (period-end, £m) | 422 | ~470 | ~316 |
| Forward sales (£m) | ~1,950 | ~1,650 | 1,137 |
Capital returns FY25 and YTD FY26. £381.5m returned to shareholders in FY25, completing the historical £283m/year run-rate. The 33p interim dividend was paid 28 March 2025. ~£190m of shareholder returns made in YTD FY26 (per 13 March 2026 update). April 2026 daily share buyback notices show purchases for cancellation at 3,300–3,482p (45,000–87,000 shares per day).
Land creditors. Berkeley reduced land creditors by >£250m in YTD FY26 (per March 2026 update); strategy is to bring this down from £900m to £470m over Berkeley 2035, freeing future operating cash flow.
6. Valuation & Market Data
Sourced from market data providers and company filings on/around 24 April 2026. Prices change intraday — see the ChartsView live charts for the current tape.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (recent close) | ~3,300–3,468p (range during April 2026) |
| Market capitalisation | ~£3.2bn |
| 52-week range | 3,462p–4,369.96p (then trading below the bottom of range post 1 April 2026) |
| Forward P/E | ~11.3x |
| Trailing P/E (TTM) | ~10.3x |
| EV/EBITDA | ~6.2x |
| P/Tangible NAV | ~1.0–1.1x (implied; Berkeley 30 April 2025 net assets approximately £3.0bn) |
| Net cash (latest, target FY26 year-end) | ~£300m |
| Enterprise value (approx.) | ~£2.9bn (market cap less ~£300m net cash) |
| FY25 dividend / shareholder return | £381.5m total returns; 33p interim dividend paid 28 March 2025 |
| Trailing dividend yield | ~0.96%–1.0% (depends on price; Berkeley returns largely via buybacks under the new framework) |
| Shareholder return programme | Minimum £2.0bn over Berkeley 2035 (10 years); £0.9bn by 30 September 2030 |
| Shares in issue | ~95m (after recent cancellations) |
| Buyback activity (April 2026) | Multiple daily cancellations 45k–87k shares at 3,300–3,482p |
| Short interest (FCA) | No individual disclosed short position above 0.5% of issued share capital at 24 April 2026 |
Data gap: Berkeley does not publish a US ADR with associated SEC short reporting; UK FCA Short Position Daily List is the primary disclosure. Most ratios are sensitive to whether the reader applies the FY26 guided £450m PBT or the trailing FY25 £528.9m. Forward P/E above is on FY27 consensus implied by the £450m guide.
7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?
Land bank scale. Approximately 50,000 plots with a further >10,000 in the pipeline. Estimated future gross profit in the land holdings is £6.51bn at H1 FY26 with an average future gross margin of 24.6%. Following the 1 April 2026 strategy update, Berkeley will not purchase new sites except via JVs.
Major schemes (illustrative). Long-cycle London regeneration sites include South Quay Plaza (Tower Hamlets), Chelsea Waterfront, 250 City Road, White City, Royal Arsenal Riverside (Woolwich), Kidbrooke Village (St William JV with National Grid), Oval Village, and the Camden Goods Yard scheme. St Joseph operates schemes in the West Midlands; St James and St William are converting former gasworks and energy sites with National Grid.
Build to Rent — Berkeley Living. Two further BTR sites were transferred into the platform in H1 FY26, taking the total to four buildings / 1,122 homes. Foundry Yard at Alexandra Gate (south London) is the first to open for letting from early 2026 (studios to three-bedroom). Target is 4,000 homes across 17 brownfield regeneration sites by 2035, with up to £5bn of capital available under the Berkeley 2035 framework.
Berkeley Modular at Northfleet (status: closed). The 160,000 sq ft Northfleet (Kent) modular factory acquired in 2017 was wound down in 2023 after Berkeley pulled back from production. The site has since been put up for auction with auctioneers targeting around £30m of proceeds. Berkeley has effectively exited the modular construction sector.
Planning & Gateway 2 pipeline. Berkeley flagged in the strategy update that the average construction schedule has lengthened by ~12 months due to building safety regulation. Industry data (Building / Construction Management) suggests London Gateway 2 approvals averaged ~48 weeks vs the 12-week statutory target through much of 2025; ~10,000 London homes were awaiting Gateway 2 sign-off >6 months at the end of 2025.
FY27–FY30 financial framework. Management committed at the 1 April 2026 update to delivering more than £1.4bn of pre-tax profit cumulatively across FY27–FY30, alongside a 25% reduction in operating costs to £150m and a reduction in land creditors from £900m to £470m.
8. Competitive Landscape
Berkeley operates in a sector dominated by national volume housebuilders, but its product mix — central-London, high-rise, brownfield, premium ASP — means its like-for-like peer set is narrower than the national headline rankings suggest. The closest direct competitor for premium London new-build is Native Land (private), Almacantar (private) and Ballymore (private), rather than the listed volume builders.
| Listed UK housebuilder | Approx. annual completions (latest) | FY revenue | Geographic / product focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barratt Redrow | ~17,000+ | ~£5.5bn | National volume housebuilder; UK’s largest by revenue post Oct-2024 merger |
| Vistry Group | ~17,000–18,000+ (target) | ~£4.5bn | Partnerships-led model with Registered Providers; affordable-led mix |
| Persimmon | ~13,500–14,900 | ~£3.0bn | National volume; lower-ASP regional product (Persimmon, Charles Church, Westbury) |
| Taylor Wimpey | ~10,000–13,700 | ~£3.4bn | National volume; broad mix |
| Bellway | ~11,000+ | ~£2.4bn | National volume; mid-ASP regional |
| Berkeley Group | 4,047 (+282 JV) | £2.49bn | London / SE England / Birmingham; brownfield regeneration; ASP £593k |
| Crest Nicholson | ~2,000–2,500 | ~£0.7bn | South of England; mid-market |
Why volume comparisons mislead. Berkeley delivers ~4,000 homes a year vs Vistry/Barratt Redrow at 17,000+. But Berkeley’s ASP is roughly double the national average new-build, its sites are 10–20 year regeneration projects rather than greenfield estates, and its land bank carries a 24.6% future gross margin. The economics rhyme more with central-London developers (Native Land, Ballymore, Canary Wharf Group) than with national volume builders.
BTR competition. In Build to Rent, Berkeley Living competes with Greystar (the largest UK BTR operator), Quintain (Wembley Park), Get Living, Grainger plc (LSE: GRI), Sage (UK’s largest affordable-led housing provider) and Legal & General Capital’s BTR platform. Berkeley’s differentiation is that it is both developer and operator, retaining the development margin within the rental yield.
9. Leadership and Ownership
| Role | Name | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Executive Chair | Rob Perrins | Joined the Board in 2001; CEO 2009–September 2025; transitioned to Executive Chair on 5 September 2025 (his 50th results announcement coincides with Berkeley’s 50th anniversary in 2026). Holds ~1.3% of issued share capital |
| Chief Executive Officer | Richard Stearn | Appointed CEO at the September 2025 AGM; responsible for delivery of the Berkeley 2035 strategy and Group operational performance |
| Chief Financial Officer | Neil Eady | Appointed CFO September 2025 |
| Non-Executive Director | Barbara Richmond | Appointed 1 January 2026; previously CFO of Redrow plc |
| Non-Executive Director | Rachel Downey | Bought 575 shares on 15 April 2026 at £34.49 (£19,831.75) |
| Founder legacy | Tony Pidgley CBE (1947–2020) | Co-founded Berkeley in 1976 with Jim Farrer; Group Chairman until his death in June 2020. The brownfield-regeneration, long-cycle-land model that defines Berkeley today was Pidgley’s strategic legacy |
Top shareholders (institutional, ~88% of register). First Eagle Investment Management (~12%), Artisan Partners Limited Partnership (~9%), BlackRock (~6.9%), with the rest of the top 8 holders accounting for roughly 52% of the register collectively. CEO/Executive Chair Rob Perrins holds ~1.3% directly. Public/retail ownership is ~10%.
| Shareholder | Approx. stake | Type |
|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management | ~12% | US active value manager |
| Artisan Partners Limited Partnership | ~9% | US active manager |
| BlackRock, Inc. | ~6.9% | Index plus active |
| Other institutions (Vanguard, State Street, etc.) | ~60% | Long-only and index |
| Rob Perrins (Executive Chair) | ~1.3% | Direct insider holding |
| Public & retail | ~10% | Free float |
Recent insider / company dealings (April 2026):
| Date | Person | Transaction | Shares | Price (p) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 April 2026 | Company buyback | Purchase for cancellation | 86,947 | 3,300.58 (VWAP) |
| 22 April 2026 | Company buyback | Purchase for cancellation | 45,000 | 3,378–3,420 |
| 21 April 2026 | Company buyback | Purchase for cancellation | 45,000 | 3,432–3,482 |
| 15 April 2026 | Rachel Downey (NED) | Open-market buy | 575 | 3,449 |
| 14 April 2026 | Company buyback | Purchase for cancellation | 45,000 | 3,366–3,456 |
| 8 April 2026 | Company buyback | Purchase for cancellation | 70,121 | 3,438 (VWAP) |
Buyback cadence in April 2026 has averaged ~50,000 shares/day at an average price between 3,300p and 3,482p. The Rachel Downey open-market purchase on 15 April is the standout insider transaction — a Non-Executive Director buying after the 1 April strategy update.
10. Risks and Challenges
- London & SE residential market. Lloyds, Nationwide and Brunel all forecast London/SE 2026 house-price growth below the UK average. High transaction costs (SDLT) and the November 2025 Budget’s mansion tax (annual surcharge from April 2028 on homes >£2m) directly target Berkeley’s premium product mix.
- Planning and Gateway 2 / building safety. Berkeley itself flagged a ~12-month lengthening of construction schedules due to building safety regulation. London Gateway 2 approvals took ~48 weeks vs 12-week statutory target through much of 2025; ~10,000 London homes were awaiting Gateway 2 approval >6 months by late 2025. Drives working-capital absorption and delays project IRRs.
- Second staircase regulation. All new residential buildings with habitable floor >18m require a second staircase under the post-Grenfell regime; the 30-month transition closes in October 2026 after which all new applications must include a second staircase. Reduces net saleable area and increases construction cost on tall urban schemes — structurally adverse for Berkeley’s product mix.
- Building safety remediation. Berkeley has signed the UK Building Safety Pledge committing to remediate fire-safety defects on its own legacy buildings >11m. Any further extension of remediation scope or government cladding/recladding levies would flow through future P&L.
- Mortgage rate sensitivity. Average UK 5-year fixed at ~5.75% and 2-year fixed at ~5.84% in April 2026, with rates having risen from 4.95% / 4.83% pre-recent geopolitical tensions. Berkeley’s premium product is sensitive to mortgage availability and affordability stress at >£500k loans.
- Strategy execution risk. The 1 April 2026 strategy update added a new operating cost target (£150m, −25%), a land creditor unwind (£900m to £470m), and a four-year cumulative profit target (£1.4bn FY27–FY30). Execution against all three simultaneously is the new investment case; delivery is unproven.
- BTR launch execution. Berkeley Living is novel for Berkeley — the company has historically been a developer, not an operator. Letting-up of the first 1,122 homes from early 2026 will be the first real test of yield, occupancy and operating cost.
- Insider/family concentration. Executive Chair Rob Perrins holds ~1.3% of issued share capital. Retail ownership is ~10% with institutions ~88%; First Eagle (12%), Artisan Partners (9%) and BlackRock (6.9%) are the three largest holders. Concentration creates governance focus around buyback pacing and the BTR capital allocation.
- Geopolitical & macro overhang. Berkeley’s March 2026 trading update specifically attributed weaker reservations to “geo-political events and macro-economic uncertainty”.
11. Recent Developments
Most recent first.
- 24 April 2026. Share buyback — 86,947 ordinary shares purchased for cancellation at a volume-weighted average of 3,300.58p.
- 22 April 2026. Share buyback — 45,000 shares purchased for cancellation at 3,378–3,420p (Barclays Bank as counterparty).
- 21 April 2026. Share buyback — 45,000 shares purchased for cancellation at 3,432–3,482p.
- 15 April 2026. Director/PDMR — Non-Executive Director Rachel Downey purchased 575 shares at £34.49 (total £19,831.75).
- 14 April 2026. Share buyback — 45,000 shares purchased for cancellation at 3,366–3,456p.
- 8 April 2026. Share buyback — 70,121 shares purchased for cancellation at a VWAP of 3,438p.
- 2 April 2026. Berenberg cut its price target to GBX 4,000 from GBX 4,500 (maintained Buy).
- 1 April 2026. Strategy and trading update. Pre-tax profit guidance of £450m for FY26 reaffirmed. Pause on open-market land buying (JV land only). Operating costs to be cut 25% to £150m. Land creditors to be reduced £900m → £470m. Cumulative pre-tax profit target of £1.4bn for FY27–FY30. Shares fell ~17–18% intra-day.
- 13 March 2026. Trading update for 1 November 2025 to 28 February 2026. FY26 PBT guidance reaffirmed at £450m and similar level for FY27. Targeting net cash ~£300m at FY26 year-end. >£250m of land creditors settled; ~£190m of shareholder returns made YTD. 85% of FY26 sales secured.
- 10 December 2025. H1 FY26 interim results (six months to 31 October 2025). Pre-tax profit £254m (−7.7% YoY). Operating margin 20.8%. 2,103 homes delivered + 177 in JVs. Forward sales £1,137m (vs £1,403m at 30 April 2025). Future gross profit in land holdings £6.51bn at 24.6% margin. Two further BTR sites transferred into the Berkeley Living platform — total 4 buildings / 1,122 homes.
- 5 September 2025. 2025 AGM. Rob Perrins moves from CEO to Executive Chair. Richard Stearn appointed CEO. Neil Eady appointed CFO.
- 30 September 2025. Final £283m annual instalment paid under the legacy shareholder returns programme.
- 20 June 2025. FY25 annual results. Revenue £2.49bn. Pre-tax profit £528.9m. Net cash £337m. 4,047 homes delivered + 282 JV (92% brownfield). ASP £593k. £381.5m returned to shareholders. Berkeley 2035 launched: minimum £2.0bn shareholder returns over 10 years; up to £5bn of capital allocation; new BTR platform of 4,000 homes across 17 sites.
- 1 January 2026. Barbara (Non-Executive, ex-CFO Redrow plc) appointed to the Board.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 30 April 2026 | FY26 financial year-end (52 weeks) |
| May / early June 2026 | Likely pre-close trading update (consistent with prior years’ pattern) |
| 24 June 2026 | FY26 results announcement (full year to 30 April 2026) |
| July–Sept 2026 | Final dividend (if declared) ex-div / payment dates — calendar to be confirmed at FY26 results |
| September 2026 | 2026 AGM (typically first Friday of September) |
| October 2026 | End of 30-month transition period for second-staircase regulation — all new applications must include a second staircase |
| December 2026 | H1 FY27 interim results (six months to 31 October 2026) |
| March 2027 | FY27 trading update (3 months to ~end February 2027) |
| 30 September 2030 | Berkeley 2035 milestone — £0.9bn of shareholder returns to be delivered by this date |
Markets-wide diary items also worth tracking against Berkeley’s cycle are on the ChartsView economic calendar — UK Bank Rate decisions, Nationwide/Halifax house-price indices, ONS UK construction output, RICS UK Residential Market Survey, and Rightmove monthly asking-price data all move UK housebuilder sentiment. Live price action is on the ChartsView live charts, member discussion is on the ChartsView forum, and more research write-ups are on the ChartsView blog.
Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. All figures are drawn from Berkeley Group’s RNS announcements, results releases and company communications available as of 26 April 2026. ChartsView does not include analyst price targets, buy/sell/hold ratings or consensus estimates. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company. Do your own due diligence before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Loading research report…
13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Berkeley Group is a London- and South-East-focused brownfield residential developer operating through Berkeley Homes, St George, St James, St William, St Edward and St Joseph, with FY25 revenue of £2.49bn and an average selling price of £593,000. The land bank holds ~50,000 plots with estimated future gross profit of £6.51bn at a 24.6% margin. The 1 April 2026 strategy reset paused open-market land purchases, cut operating costs 25% to £150m, and committed to £1.4bn cumulative pre-tax profit across FY27–FY30 alongside a minimum £2.0bn shareholder return over ten years. The nearest catalysts are the early-2026 letting launch of Foundry Yard within the Berkeley Living BTR platform and FY26 results on 24 June 2026.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would come from delivery of the £450m FY26 pre-tax profit guidance, land creditor reduction from £900m toward £470m, and successful lease-up of the 1,122-home BTR portfolio. Materialisation of further Gateway 2 delays beyond the flagged 12 months, weaker London/SE pricing, the April 2028 mansion-tax surcharge, or sustained mortgage rates near 5.75% would pressure the premium product mix. Forward sales falling further from £1,137m would also undermine visibility.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Defensive balance sheet through the cycle." thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Strategic reset itself was a negative signal." risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
- InvalidatesAny disclosure that directly contradicts a material claim in the bull case.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 26 Apr 2026.
