Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX.L) - Company Research
Last Updated: 15 September 2026
Tritax Big Box REIT plc is the UK's largest listed logistics landlord and, since 2026, an increasingly serious data centre developer. It owns the very large distribution warehouses that sit behind British retail and manufacturing supply chains — let to Amazon, Argos, B&Q, Co-op, GXO, Unilever and others — and it controls the largest logistics-focused land bank in the country. In the twelve months to September 2026 the investment case has shifted materially: the group secured planning for a 107MW data centre at Manor Farm in Slough, nearly doubled its secured grid power to 507MW, raised roughly £350 million of fresh equity to fund that pipeline, and told the market it now expects to grow adjusted earnings per share by 65% by 2030/31. This report sets out what the filings actually say, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Legal name | Tritax Big Box REIT plc (incorporated in England and Wales, company no. 08215888) |
| Ticker / exchange | BBOX, London Stock Exchange main market (ISIN GB00BG49KP99); UK Real Estate Investment Trust |
| Sector | Real estate — industrial and logistics REIT, with a growing data centre development platform |
| Headquarters | London, United Kingdom |
| CEO / Leadership | Colin Godfrey (Chief Executive), Frankie Whitehead (Chief Financial Officer), Aubrey Adams (Chairman). Named as CEO and CFO in the FY2025 results announcement dated 27 February 2026 and the H1 2026 results announcement dated 5 August 2026. |
| Employees | The REIT itself has no direct employees. It is externally managed by Tritax Management LLP under an investment management agreement; the six Members of the Manager during FY2025 were Colin Godfrey, James Dunlop, Henry Franklin, Petrina Austin, Bjorn Hobart and Frankie Whitehead (FY2025 results, related party note). |
| Revenue (FY2025, total property income) | £327.7 million, up 11.4% on FY2024 (£294.2 million). Development management and land sale income of a further £104.1 million is reported separately as other operating income. |
| Net rental income (FY2025) | £305.3 million (FY2024: £276.0 million) |
| IFRS profit after tax (FY2025) | £363.3 million (FY2024: £445.5 million) |
| Market cap | Approximately £4.23 billion at 15 September 2026 (2,927,912,135 shares in issue at a share price of about 144p) |
| Portfolio value | £7.68 billion at 30 June 2026 (£7.89 billion at 31 December 2025) |
| Contracted annual rent roll | £355.7 million at 30 June 2026 (£360.9 million at 31 December 2025) |
| Loan to value | 32.9% at 30 June 2026 (33.2% at 31 December 2025) |
| EPRA Net Tangible Assets per share | 185.9p at 30 June 2026 (187.8p at 31 December 2025) |
| Dividend declared FY2025 | 8.00p per share, up 4.4% on FY2024 (7.66p) |
| Manager | Tritax Management LLP; 25% of the management fee, net of tax, is applied to buying BBOX shares for the Manager's partners and staff |
2. Bull Case and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Power is the scarce asset, and Tritax has it: the group secured planning consent for a 107MW data centre at Manor Farm, Slough in July 2026 and has near-doubled total secured grid power to 507MW, in a UK market where grid connections are the binding constraint on data centre supply.
- Recurring earnings are compounding: net rental income rose 16.2% to £173.3 million in H1 2026 and adjusted EPS excluding all development management income rose 7.0% to 4.41p, so the underlying rent engine is growing without relying on lumpy development fees.
- Embedded reversion inside the existing book: the FY2025 results identified £101.1 million of additional rent capturable from the standing portfolio inclusive of vacancy, of which 73.1% is contractual or open-market reviewable, giving visible rental growth that does not require new acquisitions.
- Scale and integration are delivering: the roughly £1.0 billion Blackstone logistics portfolio acquired in October 2025 flowed through FY2025 and H1 2026 results, lifting gross rental income from £281.1 million to £312.5 million and taking the portfolio to £7.68 billion.
- The shares trade below stated asset value: at roughly 144p against EPRA NTA of 185.9p at 30 June 2026, the stock sits at about a 22% discount to the company's own reported net tangible assets while paying a dividend of 8.00p declared for FY2025.
Bear Case
- Leverage has risen sharply: total borrowings grew from £1,953.5 million at end-2024 to £2,733.9 million at end-2025, and loan to value moved from 28.8% to 33.2%, narrowing the buffer before the group's stated gearing comfort zone.
- Vacancy is drifting the wrong way: EPRA vacancy was 5.6% at 31 December 2025 and the contracted rent roll fell 1.4% over H1 2026 to £355.7 million, so not every part of the enlarged book is fully working yet.
- Single-customer concentration: Amazon represented 13.3% of contracted rental income at FY2025, and one tenant accounted for £36.9 million of gross rental income, meaning a single occupier decision moves group earnings.
- Data centres are a different business: Manor Farm needed a judicial review before consent was confirmed, and the group is moving from warehouse development into power-intensive, capital-hungry projects where it has no long track record.
- Property values still fell: the portfolio declined 2.7% over H1 2026 to £7.68 billion and EPRA NTA per share fell 1.0%, so the Chairman's reference to market-wide value declines was visible in the group's own numbers.
3. Revenue Segments
Tritax does not report conventional operating segments. The table below breaks down the group's FY2025 gross income of £431.8 million — total property income of £327.7 million plus gross other operating income of £104.1 million — using the revenue categories disclosed in notes 6 and 8 of the FY2025 results.
| Segment / revenue category | % of FY2025 gross income (£431.8m) | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rental income — freehold property | 60.7% (£262.1m) | Rent from big box and urban logistics warehouses the group owns outright; the core earnings engine |
| Development management and land sales | 24.1% (£104.1m gross: DMA income £74.7m, sale of land £29.4m) | Fees and land profits from delivering schemes for third parties off the group's land bank; lumpy and not guaranteed year to year |
| Rental income — long leasehold property | 8.8% (£37.8m) | Rent from assets held on long leaseholds rather than freehold title |
| Property insurance and service charge income | 3.5% (£15.2m) | Recoverable insurance and service charge costs passed through to occupiers; largely offset by matching expense |
| Lease incentive spreading, guaranteed uplifts and other | 2.9% (£12.6m) | Non-cash straight-lining of rent-free periods and contractual rental uplifts under IFRS |
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Tritax buys, builds and lets very large logistics warehouses on long leases with contractual or open-market rental uplifts, and distributes the resulting income as a UK REIT. Gross rental income was £312.5 million in FY2025 against direct property costs and service charge expense of £22.4 million, leaving net rental income of £305.3 million. Alongside this it earns development management fees and land sale profits from its development platform, which contributed £104.1 million of gross other operating income in FY2025.
Unit economics. The model works because the operating cost base is thin relative to the asset base. The EPRA cost ratio excluding vacancy costs was 12.2% in H1 2026, down from 12.9% a year earlier, and the weighted average cost of debt was 3.6% with 76% of drawn debt fixed or hedged. Operating profit before changes in fair value and other adjustments was £281.6 million in FY2025 on total property income of £327.7 million, so the great majority of rent collected reaches the operating profit line before financing.
The moat. Three things are hard to replicate. First, scale: at £7.68 billion the portfolio is the largest listed UK logistics book, which brings occupier relationships and the ability to take on whole portfolios such as the Blackstone transaction. Second, land: the development platform holds the largest logistics-focused land bank in the UK, which converts into new assets at development yields rather than acquisition yields. Third, and newly important, power: 507MW of secured grid connections is an asset that cannot be bought quickly at any price in the current UK market, and it is what turns a warehouse land bank into a data centre pipeline.
The structural weakness. The REIT is externally managed. The Manager, Tritax Management LLP, is paid a fee on assets, and that alignment is only partly corrected by the arrangement under which 25% of the net fee is applied to buying BBOX shares for the Manager's partners and staff. Investors who dislike external management structures will see this as a permanent governance discount.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from the company's own audited and reported results: the FY2025 results announcement published 27 February 2026, the H1 2026 results announcement published 5 August 2026, and the FY2023 and FY2022 preliminary results announcements. Revenue is stated on the "total property income" basis of note 6 of the accounts, which is gross rental income plus property insurance and service charge income. Development management and land sale income is reported separately by the company as other operating income and is excluded from this column.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue — total property income (£ millions) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 189.8 | n/d | 55.39p | 8.23p | 6.70p | £1,345.2m |
| FY2022 | 212.5 | +12.0% | (32.08)p | 7.79p | 7.00p | £1,613.9m |
| FY2023 | 228.4 | +7.5% | 3.72p | 7.75p | 7.30p | £1,615.2m |
| FY2024 | 294.2 | +28.8% | 19.67p | 8.91p | 7.66p | £1,953.5m |
| FY2025 | 327.7 | +11.4% | 14.39p | 8.87p | 8.00p | £2,733.9m |
Long-term debt is total year-end borrowings: bank borrowings plus loan notes, current and non-current. FY2025 comprises £65.6m of current loan notes, £1,480.1m of non-current bank borrowings and £1,188.2m of non-current loan notes. FY2021 YoY is shown as n/d because FY2020 total property income is outside the five-year window presented. The FY2022 GAAP loss per share reflects a £759.5m negative revaluation of investment property in that year, not an operating loss.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue — total property income (£ millions) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 (6m to 30 Jun 2026) | 186.7 | 4.41p | 2.80p |
| H1 2025 (6m to 30 Jun 2025) | 160.2 | 4.63p | 6.72p |
| H1 2024 (6m to 30 Jun 2024) | 130.5 | 4.35p | 9.14p |
| H1 2023 (6m to 30 Jun 2023) | 112.4 | 3.94p | 5.39p |
| FY2025 (full year) | 327.7 | 8.87p | 14.39p |
Tritax reports half-yearly rather than quarterly. Adjusted EPS in H1 2026 was 4.41p on both the including-DMA and excluding-DMA bases because no development management income was recognised in the period, against £13.3 million in H1 2025. The IFRS EPS line swings with property revaluation and is not a measure of cash earnings.
Balance sheet and cash flow, FY2025 and H1 2026. At 31 December 2025 total assets were £8,045.8 million and total net assets £5,058.9 million, with cash of £109.5 million plus £21.1 million of restricted cash. FY2025 net cash generated from operating activities was £312.8 million, against additions to investment properties of £1,168.6 million and additions to land options of £8.6 million, funded by £1,310.0 million of bank borrowings drawn, £297.0 million of loan notes issued and £353.9 million of disposal proceeds. Dividends paid absorbed £199.8 million. At 30 June 2026 total borrowings were £2,626.5 million (£187.4 million current bank borrowings, £65.6 million current loan notes, £1,184.6 million non-current bank borrowings and £1,188.9 million non-current loan notes) with cash of £115.0 million and over £530 million of available cash and undrawn facilities. Amortisation of intangible property assets was £0.9 million in FY2025; investment property is carried at fair value and is not depreciated.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~£4.23bn (2,927,912,135 shares in issue after the August 2026 equity issue, at a share price of about 144p on 15 September 2026) |
| Enterprise value | ~£6.74bn (market cap ~£4.23bn + total borrowings £2,626.5m − cash £115.0m, both per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Note this overstates true net debt today: the ~£350m August 2026 equity issue is inside the market cap but its proceeds are not yet inside the reported cash figure. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~10.0x (144p / FY2025 IFRS basic EPS of 14.39p). On FY2025 Adjusted EPS of 8.87p the multiple is ~16.3x; the IFRS figure is inflated by £198.6m of property revaluation gains and is not a cash earnings measure. |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — the company does not publish an EPS forecast, and ChartsView does not use analyst consensus estimates. Management's stated ambition is 65% adjusted EPS growth by 2030/31 from the FY2025 base of 8.87p. |
| P/S (TTM) | ~11.9x (market cap ~£4.23bn / trailing twelve-month total property income of ~£354.2m, being FY2025 £327.7m less H1 2025 £160.2m plus H1 2026 £186.7m) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~23.9x (EV ~£6.74bn / EBITDA ~£282.5m; EBITDA is FY2025 operating profit before changes in fair value and other adjustments of £281.6m plus £0.9m of intangible amortisation, the only depreciation and amortisation charged, since investment property is held at fair value and not depreciated). This multiple is structurally high for a REIT because rental assets are valued on yield rather than earnings multiples. |
| P/FCF | n/m — free cash flow was negative in FY2025: operating cash flow of £312.8m less additions to investment property of £1,168.6m and land options of £8.6m gives roughly −£864.4m. A developing REIT funds acquisition and construction from debt, equity and disposals, so conventional P/FCF is not meaningful; dividend cover on Adjusted EPS was 95% in FY2025. |
| Price / EPRA NTA | ~0.78x, a discount of roughly 22% (144p share price against EPRA Net Tangible Assets of 185.9p per share at 30 June 2026) |
| Dividend yield | ~5.5% (FY2025 declared dividend of 8.00p against a share price of about 144p) |
| Loan to value | 32.9% at 30 June 2026 (33.2% at 31 December 2025; 28.8% at 31 December 2024) |
| 52-week high | 175.0p |
| 52-week low | 135.1p |
| Short interest (% of float) | Not published for this period. The FCA's daily short positions file, the standard UK source, contains no disclosed net short position in Tritax Big Box, and UK individual short-position disclosure changed from 13 July 2026 with ShortTracker.co.uk now closed. Verify at fca.org.uk short positions daily update. |
| Days to cover | Not published for this period — no disclosed UK short position exists from which to derive it. Verify at fca.org.uk short positions daily update. |
You can track the price action on the ChartsView Live Charts page, and check UK and US macro release dates on the Economic Calendar.
7. What Are They Building
Data centres, power first. This is the major change to the business since the last version of this report. Tritax has adopted what it calls a power-first approach: secure grid connection agreements on or adjacent to its land bank before committing development capital. At the H1 2026 results on 5 August 2026 the group announced that secured power had near-doubled to 507MW. The flagship scheme is Manor Farm in Slough, a 107MW data centre for which planning consent was confirmed on 27 July 2026 following a judicial review, with a pre-let in legal documentation and a targeted yield on cost of 9.3%. The group has separately described a 147MW data centre development opportunity.
Logistics development. The historic engine continues. The development platform, formerly Tritax Symmetry and now Tritax Big Box Developments, converts land into pre-let and speculative logistics schemes, generating both new rent and development management income. Development management income was £74.7 million in FY2025 and land sales a further £29.4 million, though nothing was recognised in H1 2026, which is a useful reminder of how lumpy this line is.
Rental capture inside the existing book. Management identified £101.1 million of additional rent available from the standing portfolio at FY2025, of which 73.1% is contractual or subject to open-market review. EPRA like-for-like rental growth was 5.1% in H1 2026. FY2025 also saw five-year lease renewals agreed with GXO at Swadlincote, Amazon at Peterborough, Co-op at Thurrock and Unilever.
The stated financial target. Combining the enlarged data centre pipeline with the August 2026 equity issue, management raised its ambition to grow adjusted EPS by 65% between now and 2030/31. That is the number against which the next several years of this story should be judged.
8. Competitive Landscape
Tritax competes for assets, occupiers and capital with other listed industrial landlords. SEGRO is much larger and internally managed with substantial continental European exposure; LondonMetric has become the UK's biggest triple-net-lease REIT after absorbing Urban Logistics; Prologis is the global benchmark; Sirius Real Estate operates at the smaller, multi-let end of the same asset class.
| Peer | Market cap (September 2026) | Key 2025/2026 metric |
|---|---|---|
| SEGRO plc (LSE: SGRO) | ~£12.59bn | Portfolio valued at £18.70bn at 30 June 2026, down 1.2% from £18.96bn at December 2025; adjusted EPS up 6.6% to 19.3p in H1 2026 (SEGRO 2026 half year results) |
| LondonMetric Property plc (LSE: LMP) | ~£4.30bn | £7.6bn triple-net-lease portfolio; net rental income up 16.6% to £455.3m and EPRA EPS up 2.4% to 13.5p for the year to 31 March 2026 (LondonMetric full year results) |
| Prologis, Inc. (NYSE: PLD) | ~$131.4bn | 1.3bn sq ft logistics portfolio across 20 countries; owned and managed period-end occupancy 95.5% and Q2 2026 revenues of $2.43bn (Prologis Q2 2026 results, 16 July 2026) |
| Sirius Real Estate Ltd (LSE: SRE) | ~£1.45bn | FY2026 profit before tax up 4.9% to €211.4m; funds from operations up 8.4% to €133.5m; like-for-like annualised rent roll up 6.4% to €224.2m (Sirius FY2026 results) |
The competitive point that matters in 2026 is that none of these peers has publicly matched Tritax's secured 507MW of UK grid power. That is a genuine differentiator if the data centre pipeline converts, and an expensive distraction if it does not.
9. Leadership and Insider Activity
Chief Executive Colin Godfrey and Chief Financial Officer Frankie Whitehead lead the business through the external manager, Tritax Management LLP, under the chairmanship of Aubrey Adams. Because the REIT has no direct employees, most director and PDMR share activity is structural rather than discretionary: 25% of the Manager's net management fee is applied to buying BBOX shares for its partners and staff, and directors subscribed alongside external investors in the August 2026 equity issue. Investors should read the transactions below in that light rather than as open-market conviction buying.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tritax Management LLP (on behalf of partners and employees including PDMRs) | 10 Aug 2026 | Purchase | 1,751,952 | £1.6684 | ~£2.92m | Management fee applied to share purchase under the investment management agreement |
| Directors and PDMRs (aggregate, including connected persons) | 26 Aug 2026 | Subscription | 771,195 | £1.6400 | £1,264,759.80 | Subscription in the August 2026 equity issue at the placing price |
| Alfred Franklin (person closely associated with PDMR Henry Franklin) | 23 Mar 2026 | Sale and matching purchase | 6,750 | 146.20p sale / 146.27p purchase | ~£9,870 | Transfer into ISA; no change in beneficial ownership |
| William Franklin (person closely associated with PDMR Henry Franklin) | 23 Mar 2026 | Sale and matching purchase | 8,250 | 146.20p sale / 146.27p purchase | ~£12,060 | Transfer into ISA; no change in beneficial ownership |
| Oscar Franklin (person closely associated with PDMR Henry Franklin) | 23 Mar 2026 | Sale and matching purchase | 13,450 | 146.20p sale / 146.27p purchase | ~£19,660 | Transfer into ISA; no change in beneficial ownership |
Related party disclosure in the FY2025 results shows the dividends the Members of the Manager received on their BBOX holdings during the year, including £216,066 to Colin Godfrey, which gives a sense of the size of the personal shareholdings built up through the fee-in-shares arrangement.
10. Key Risks
- Refinancing and interest rates: total borrowings reached £2,733.9m at 31 December 2025 from £1,953.5m a year earlier. The weighted average cost of debt is 3.6% with 76% of drawn debt fixed or hedged, which means roughly a quarter is not, and maturing facilities will reprice into a higher rate environment than the one in which they were struck.
- Occupier concentration: Amazon accounted for 13.3% of contracted rental income at FY2025 and one tenant represented £36.9m of gross rental income. A single large occupier decision materially changes group rent roll.
- Property valuation: the portfolio fell 2.7% over H1 2026 to £7.68bn and EPRA NTA per share fell 1.0%. Valuations are set by yields, and further yield expansion would hit net asset value and loan to value simultaneously.
- Development and planning execution: Manor Farm required a judicial review before consent was confirmed in July 2026. Data centre development carries planning, grid-connection, construction and pre-letting risk in an asset class where the group has limited completed track record.
- Lumpy development income: other operating income was £104.1m gross in FY2025 but nil in H1 2026. Any year in which the market assumes development income recurs at FY2025 levels risks disappointment.
- Dilution and delivery on the equity raise: the August 2026 issue of 213,414,634 shares, around 7.9% of prior share capital at 164p, is only accretive if the data centre pipeline converts at the returns management has described.
- Vacancy and rent roll: EPRA vacancy of 5.6% at FY2025 and a 1.4% fall in contracted rent roll over H1 2026 show that integrating a large acquired portfolio is not frictionless.
- External management structure: fees are levied on assets by Tritax Management LLP rather than earned by employees of the REIT. This is a permanent governance consideration and can weigh on the rating relative to internally managed peers.
11. Recent Developments
- 27 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results published. Net rental income rose 10.6% to £305.3m, operating profit before fair value movements rose 6.1% to £281.6m, the portfolio reached £7.89bn and the declared dividend rose 4.4% to 8.00p. Loan to value moved up to 33.2% from 28.8%.
- 23 Mar 2026 — PDMR-connected ISA transfers notified. Persons closely associated with PDMR Henry Franklin executed matched sales and purchases moving holdings into ISA accounts, with no change in beneficial ownership.
- 07 May 2026 — Annual General Meeting held at Ashurst LLP, London Fruit and Wool Exchange, 1 Duval Square, London E1 6PW.
- 27 Jul 2026 — Planning consent secured for the 107MW Manor Farm data centre. Consent for the Slough scheme was confirmed after a judicial review, with a pre-let in legal documentation and a targeted yield on cost of 9.3%.
- 05 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results. Net rental income up 16.2% to £173.3m, adjusted EPS excluding all DMA income up 7.0% to 4.41p, IFRS EPS 2.80p, EPRA NTA 185.9p, portfolio £7.68bn, loan to value 32.9%, and secured power near-doubled to 507MW.
- 05 Aug 2026 — Proposed equity issue announced. A placing, retail offer and director subscription targeting roughly £350m gross at 164p per share to fund the enlarged data centre pipeline, alongside a raised ambition to grow adjusted EPS by 65% by 2030/31.
- 10 Aug 2026 — Manager share purchase. Tritax Management LLP acquired 1,751,952 shares at £1.6684 for partners and employees including PDMRs under the fee-in-shares arrangement.
- 26 Aug 2026 — Equity issue completed. 213,414,634 new ordinary shares, about 7.9% of the prior issued capital, were admitted to trading, with directors and PDMRs subscribing for 771,195 shares at the placing price.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 trading update and third interim dividend declaration, based on the group's established quarterly dividend pattern
- Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 full year results, following the 27 February 2026 date for FY2025
- Expected May 2027 — Annual General Meeting, following the 7 May 2026 date for the 2026 meeting
- Expected Aug 2027 — H1 2027 results, following the 5 August 2026 date for H1 2026
- TBC — financial close and construction start on the 107MW Manor Farm data centre, once the pre-let currently in legal documentation is signed
- TBC — further grid connection agreements beyond the 507MW secured at August 2026
Tritax publishes its confirmed reporting calendar and dividend timetable on its investor relations pages; the dates above marked Expected are derived from the company's own prior-year reporting pattern rather than from a published announcement. Discuss what you are watching with other investors on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Tritax Big Box REIT owns the UK's largest listed portfolio of large logistics warehouses, valued at £7.68bn at 30 June 2026, and earns rent from long leases with contractual or open-market uplifts, supplemented by development management fees and land sales from the biggest logistics land bank in the country. FY2025 delivered total property income of £327.7m, net rental income of £305.3m, operating profit before fair value movements of £281.6m and a declared dividend of 8.00p, with IFRS basic EPS of 14.39p and Adjusted EPS of 8.87p. H1 2026 continued that trajectory, with net rental income up 16.2% and Adjusted EPS excluding development income up 7.0% to 4.41p. The structural driver management has put in front of investors is power: secured grid connections nearly doubled to 507MW, planning consent was won for a 107MW data centre at Manor Farm in Slough at a targeted 9.3% yield on cost, and a ~£350m equity issue in August 2026 was raised to fund that pipeline behind a stated ambition to grow Adjusted EPS by 65% by 2030/31.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be the Manor Farm pre-let signing and moving into construction, further grid connections beyond 507MW, and Adjusted EPS continuing to compound off the FY2025 base of 8.87p while loan to value stays inside the low thirties. The thesis breaks if refinancing costs rise faster than rents in a book where borrowings grew from £1,953.5m to £2,733.9m during FY2025, if the 13.3% of contracted rent tied to Amazon is reduced at renewal, if property values keep falling as they did by 2.7% over H1 2026, or if the data centre pipeline stalls in planning or power and the August 2026 dilution is not repaid by earnings growth.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Power is the scarce asset, and Tritax has it:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Refinancing and interest rates:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 15 Sep 2026.
