Last Updated: 20 April 2026
Anglo American plc (LSE: AAL) is in the middle of one of the most ambitious portfolio transformations in large-cap mining. Having fended off BHP's £38 billion approach in 2024, spun out Anglo American Platinum as Valterra in mid-2025, agreed the disposal of its Brazilian nickel business, and reopened the formal sale of steelmaking coal after the Peabody deal collapsed, the group has simultaneously agreed a merger of equals with Canada's Teck Resources to create "Anglo Teck" — a copper-led major headquartered in Canada. This report is built from primary company disclosures (RNS, full-year 2025 results, quarterly production reports, AGM documentation) and UK regulatory filings, with no analyst opinions or price targets. Figures are in US dollars unless stated — Anglo reports in USD. Live charts are available at /live-charts.
1. Company Snapshot
| Company | Anglo American plc |
|---|---|
| Primary ticker | AAL (London Stock Exchange); secondary JSE: AGL; OTC ADR: NGLOY |
| Sector / industry | Basic Materials / Diversified Mining |
| HQ | 17 Charterhouse Street, London EC1N 6RA, United Kingdom |
| CEO | Duncan Wanblad (since April 2022) |
| Chair | Stuart Chambers |
| CFO | John Heasley |
| Share price (18 Apr 2026 close) | 3,651 GBp |
| Market capitalisation | ~£39.0 billion (~US$51 billion at current FX) |
| 2025 revenue (continuing ops) | US$18.5 billion |
| 2025 underlying EBITDA | US$6.4 billion |
| 2025 net debt | US$8.6 billion |
| Employees (continuing ops) | ~50,000 (post-demergers/disposals) |
| Website | angloamerican.com |
| Core commodities | Copper, Premium Iron Ore, Crop Nutrients (Woodsmith polyhalite under development), Manganese |
| Disposal/transitional | De Beers (in sale process), Steelmaking Coal (sale reopened after Peabody termination), Nickel Brazil (MMG sale pending EC review) |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Written last after all research. Factual distillation — not opinions.
Bull case
- Anglo Teck merger approved and progressing — shareholders of both companies approved the all-share merger on 9 December 2025; Canadian government cleared it under the Investment Canada Act on 16 December 2025; competition clearances obtained in Canada and Australia. Completion targeted within 12-18 months of the September 2025 announcement. Company guides ~US$800m annual pre-tax synergies by year four, ~80% of run-rate by end of year two.
- Copper-led "critical minerals champion" positioning — combined entity expected to offer shareholders >70% exposure to copper, becoming a top-five global producer. Quellaveco reached the one-millionth cumulative tonne of copper since 2022 start-up and is expected to achieve capital payback in 2026 — just four years post-first-production.
- Portfolio simplification on track — Valterra Platinum demerger completed 1 June 2025; nickel disposal agreed with MMG for up to US$500m; steelmaking coal sale process reopened in August 2025. US$1.8bn run-rate cost savings delivered on schedule by end of 2025.
- Premium iron ore franchise performing — 2025 EBITDA margin of 43% in Premium Iron Ore; Minas-Rio 2026 guidance upgraded 4%; Kumba generated ~US$1.8bn FY25 adjusted EBITDA.
- US$4.5bn special dividend — Anglo will pay shareholders a US$4.5bn special dividend (~US$4.19 per ordinary share) ahead of merger completion, alongside normal dividends.
- Woodsmith project syndicated — Mitsubishi Corporation signed an investment agreement on 20 February 2026, providing a clear pathway to project syndication (potentially up to 25% stake). Anglo's annual Woodsmith outlay reduced to ~US$300m pending a final investment decision from 2028 onward.
Bear case
- Copper production missed — 2025 copper production fell 10% to 695kt; 2026 guidance cut to 700-760kt (from 760-820kt) because of lower grades at Collahuasi through end-2026.
- Heavy De Beers writedowns — a further US$2.3bn pre-tax impairment on De Beers in FY25 (third consecutive writedown), contributing to a US$3.7bn attributable loss for 2025. Sale proceeds could be US$3-4bn versus the US$5bn carrying estimate depending on outcome.
- Dividend cut of 64% — total 2025 cash returns cut to US$0.23/share (US$0.16 final + US$0.07 interim), down from US$0.22 final in 2024 alone — a 64% headline reduction as management prioritises balance-sheet repair and the Teck combination.
- Peabody walkaway on coal — Peabody terminated the US$3.775bn steelmaking coal acquisition in 2025 after the Moranbah North ignition event; Anglo has initiated arbitration but now runs a formal sale process again, with execution/timing risk.
- Chile regulatory risk — Chile's SMA filed four environmental charges against Los Bronces for tailings seepage and acid drainage; potential fines ~CLP 17bn (~US$17m) plus remediation. Community opposition to tailings dams continues.
- Merger execution risk and overhang — the Anglo Teck combination needs further global regulatory clearances including China. Any protracted review, interloper bid, or shareholder dissent could reopen execution uncertainty. BHP's three 2024 approaches proved Anglo is a structurally contested asset.
- Country/geopolitical exposure — assets concentrated in Chile (Los Bronces, Collahuasi), Peru (Quellaveco), South Africa (Kumba, Valterra stub), Brazil (Minas-Rio), Botswana (De Beers) — all with elevated political, tax or community-licence risk.
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
Anglo American is a UK-listed diversified miner. Following two years of portfolio surgery, the continuing business has four operating pillars: Copper, Premium Iron Ore, Crop Nutrients (Woodsmith polyhalite pre-production) and Manganese, with De Beers (85%-owned, held for sale) classified as discontinued/disposal. Valterra Platinum was demerged on 1 June 2025 (Anglo retains ~19.9%). Nickel Brazil is contracted to MMG. Steelmaking coal is back in a formal sale process.
Revenue mix — continuing operations, FY2025 (US$18.5bn revenue, US$6.4bn underlying EBITDA):
| Segment | 2025 EBITDA margin | Key assets | Role in "new Anglo" |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 49% | Los Bronces & Collahuasi (Chile, 44% stake in Collahuasi), Quellaveco (Peru, 60%) | Core growth engine; >70% of post-merger Anglo Teck exposure |
| Premium Iron Ore | 43% | Kumba (South Africa, 69.7%), Minas-Rio (Brazil, 100%) | Cash generator; premium Fe grades (65%+) |
| Crop Nutrients | n/m (pre-revenue at scale) | Woodsmith polyhalite (UK, in construction) | Long-dated optionality; Mitsubishi JV 2026 |
| Manganese | Positive | Samancor JV (Australia, South Africa) | Legacy but still cash-generative |
| De Beers (discontinued) | Loss-making; US$2.3bn FY25 impairment | Debswana JV (Botswana), Namdeb, Venetia (South Africa) | Held for sale in 2026 |
4. The Business Model
Anglo runs a vertically integrated model from exploration and mining to processing and sales, selling commodity products at (mostly) reference prices set by LME (copper), Platts 65% Fe index (premium iron ore), and proprietary polyhalite/crop nutrient pricing for Woodsmith. Profitability is driven by (a) commodity prices, (b) unit cash cost discipline (c.$36/t iron ore group guidance), (c) currency (ZAR, BRL, CLP) and (d) operational intensity (throughput, grade, strip ratio).
Moat: long-life, large-scale assets with high entry barriers (Quellaveco was >US$5bn capex; Minas-Rio's 529km slurry pipeline is irreplaceable). Premium iron ore and Quellaveco are first-quartile cost-curve assets.
Government / subsidy dependency: Anglo is not materially dependent on subsidies or regulatory credits — unlike renewable-energy or EV peers. However, the group does rely on mining licences and royalty regimes in host countries: Chilean mining royalty reforms, South African Mineral and Petroleum Resources Royalty Act (MPRRA) rates, and Botswana's diamond sales/licence agreements materially affect realised margins. Debswana's new 10-year sales agreement (extendable by 5 years) and 25-year Mining Licence extension (to 2054) were signed in February 2025 — these are structural, not subsidy-based, revenue frameworks. The Woodsmith project benefits from UK planning permissions and a Tees Valley Freeport designation but no direct subsidy stream.
5. Financial Health
Five-year trend — Group revenue (continuing + discontinued as reported each year) and key balance-sheet items. Figures per company FY results releases.
| Metric (US$bn unless noted) | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (group, total) | ~41.5 | ~35.1 | ~30.7 | ~27.3 | ~21.8 (18.5 continuing) |
| Underlying EBITDA | ~20.6 | ~14.5 | ~10.0 | 8.5 | 6.4 (continuing) |
| Attributable profit / (loss) | ~8.6 | ~4.5 | (2.9) | (3.1) | (3.7) |
| Net debt | ~3.8 | ~6.9 | ~10.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 |
| Dividend per share (US$) | ~5.08 | ~1.98 | ~0.96 | ~0.64 | 0.23 |
| Underlying EPS (continuing, US$) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.80 |
Reported losses in FY23-FY25 reflect cumulative impairments — principally De Beers (US$2.3bn in FY25 alone, on top of previous years), Woodsmith (~US$1.6bn taken previously when development was slowed), and nickel-asset write-downs. Underlying continuing-ops earnings remained positive at US$0.80 EPS in FY25.
6. Valuation & Market Data
As of close on 18 April 2026 unless otherwise stated. Raw numbers only.
| Share price (LSE close 18 Apr 2026) | 3,651 GBp |
|---|---|
| Previous close | 3,711 GBp |
| 52-week range | 1,951.3 – 3,877.0 GBp |
| Market capitalisation | ~£39.0bn (~US$51bn) |
| Enterprise value (approx., mkt cap + FY25 net debt) | ~US$59-60bn |
| P/E (TTM, on continuing underlying EPS US$0.80) | ~58× on reported / ~29× on continuing underlying (GBP share price ÷ GBP-equivalent underlying EPS; distorted by FY25 impairments) |
| EV / Underlying EBITDA (FY25 continuing) | ~9.2× |
| Price / Sales (continuing revenue) | ~2.8× |
| Price / FCF | Not meaningful on FY25 (negative underlying FCF after restructuring outflows) |
| Dividend yield (trailing US$0.23 at current GBP price) | ~0.5% (trailing); separately, US$4.5bn special dividend (~US$4.19/sh) payable on merger completion |
| Shares in issue | ~1.08bn (post-share consolidation associated with Valterra demerger) |
| Free float | ~88% (largest shareholders: BlackRock ~9.6%, Public Investment Corporation of South Africa ~7-8%, Ninety One, Vanguard) |
| Short interest (OTC ADR NGLOY as at 31 Mar 2026) | ~202,197 shares (+50.5% on 15 Mar); short ratio ~0.2 days — very low |
See the full UK market data set on /live-charts.
7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?
- Anglo Teck merger completion — targeted for 2026/early 2027 pending remaining global regulatory clearances. Headquartered in Vancouver; to list on LSE, NYSE, TSX, JSE. US$4.5bn special dividend to Anglo shareholders; US$800m p.a. synergy target.
- Quellaveco (Peru, 60%) — mature producer; expected to hit capital payback in 2026 (4 years post first production); steady-state ~300kt/year copper.
- Los Bronces second-plant temporary restart (Chile) — planned for 2026, adding ~25kt copper.
- Collahuasi (Chile, 44%) — lower grades through 2026; step-up targeted 2027-2028. 2028 Chile guidance expected to exceed 2025 by >125kt.
- Minas-Rio (Brazil) — 2026 guidance upgraded 4%; record operational milestones in 2025.
- Woodsmith polyhalite (UK) — tunnel expected to reach mine late 2026; polyhalite by 2027. Mitsubishi investment agreement 20 Feb 2026 provides syndication pathway (up to 25%). Anglo annual spend pared to ~US$300m pending FID from 2028.
- De Beers — separation targeted in 2026 via consortium sale; bidders include a Gareth Penny/Qatari consortium (Mayhoola, Al Mirqab Capital), Botswana government, Angola, Indian billionaires (Anil Agarwal, KGK Group).
- Steelmaking coal — new formal sale process under way after Peabody termination; arbitration initiated against Peabody for wrongful termination.
- Nickel Brazil — MMG acquisition subject to European Commission in-depth Phase II review (opened November 2025).
- US$1.8bn run-rate cost savings — delivered by end 2025 on schedule; further savings targeted through merger synergies.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | 2025 copper output (kt, approx.) | Market cap (Apr 2026) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP (ASX/LSE: BHP) | ~1,850 | ~US$135bn | World's largest miner; bid for Anglo three times in 2024, withdrew Nov 2024; legally barred from returning under UK Takeover Code Rule 2.8 during cooling-off. Copper 51% of operating earnings. |
| Rio Tinto (LSE/ASX: RIO) | ~700 (Kennecott, Escondida share, Oyu Tolgoi) | ~US$130bn | Preliminary copper-focused talks with Glencore ended February 2026 without a deal. Copper ~30% of earnings, up sharply. |
| Glencore (LSE: GLEN) | ~950 | ~US$55bn | Diversified miner/trader; Collahuasi partner (44% stake alongside Anglo); Rio talks ended. |
| Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) | ~1,900 | ~US$65bn | Pure-play copper (Grasberg, Americas). Premium pure-play copper multiple. |
| Vale (NYSE: VALE) | ~350 | ~US$55bn | Iron ore major competing directly with Kumba/Minas-Rio in the seaborne premium Fe market. |
| Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) | ~1,000 | ~US$90bn | Low-cost Peru/Mexico copper producer. |
| Anglo American (today) | 695 (FY25) | ~US$51bn | Merger with Teck → post-merger copper >1.2Mt pro-forma. |
Market structure: Global copper demand is structurally supported by grid, EV, data-centre and renewables build-out. Supply is constrained by declining grades, permitting delays and social-licence issues in Latin America — an environment that has driven the Rio-Glencore talks, BHP's Anglo pursuit, and ultimately the Anglo-Teck deal. Premium iron ore (65%+ Fe) is increasingly favoured by steelmakers seeking lower CO2/tonne — a structural niche Anglo, Vale and Fortescue (via green iron initiatives) occupy.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Leadership: Duncan Wanblad (CEO, since April 2022) has >30 years at Anglo across South Africa, Brazil and London; CFO John Heasley joined in 2023 from Liberty Global / L-Brands; Chair Stuart Chambers (ex-Rexam). Post-merger, Anglo Teck will be headquartered in Vancouver with a combined board drawn from both legacy companies.
Insider transactions — most recent PDMR filings:
| Date | Insider | Action | Shares | Price | Value | Plan type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr 2026 | Duncan Wanblad (CEO) | Buy | 8 (4 Partnership + 4 Matching) | 3,592 GBp | ~£287 | UK HMRC-approved all-employee Share Incentive Plan (routine monthly deduction + matching) |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Several other PDMRs | Buy | 8 each (4+4) | 3,592 GBp | ~£287 each | Same SIP |
Note: These are SIP-plan purchases, not discretionary open-market buys — they reflect the standard monthly employee share-ownership programme. No material discretionary insider buy or sell activity has been disclosed in 2026 to date beyond these SIP lines.
Institutional shareholders (latest disclosed):
- BlackRock — ~9.6% (pivotal during 2024 BHP episode)
- Public Investment Corporation of South Africa (PIC) — ~7-8% (second-largest; publicly called for "meaningful revision" of BHP's 2024 proposal)
- Ninety One, Vanguard, Legal & General, Norges Bank Investment Management — each in low-single-digit %
- Free float overall ~88%
10. Risks and Challenges
- Merger execution — Anglo Teck still requires remaining global clearances (notably China). Any delay, interloper, or unfavourable condition could disrupt timeline and the US$4.5bn special dividend.
- Commodity price risk — copper and iron ore prices are the single largest earnings drivers. A prolonged copper downcycle would materially reduce EBITDA.
- Country/political risk — Chile (royalty, permitting, tailings regulation), South Africa (electricity, logistics at Transnet, community), Peru (political instability around Quellaveco), Brazil (Minas-Rio pipeline), Botswana (De Beers restructuring), Namibia.
- Environmental/tailings risk — four SMA charges at Los Bronces; ~US$17m potential fines; US$1.1bn tailings/water plan. Any dam failure would be existential (Samarco/Brumadinho precedents).
- De Beers sale outcome — achieved price could be US$3-4bn vs US$5bn carrying estimate; further impairments possible. Diamond market weak. Multi-way split (Botswana + consortium + Angola) may complicate governance.
- Peabody arbitration — uncertain recovery; Moranbah North operational ramp-up must complete safely while sale process runs in parallel.
- Woodsmith capital risk — still pre-revenue; prior US$1.6bn impairment; FID only from 2028; long-duration capex even with Mitsubishi 25% syndication pathway.
- Dividend reset — the 64% 2025 headline cut illustrates that Anglo's dividend is now formulaic (40% payout of underlying earnings) and cyclical. Income investors should not expect prior-period yields to recur.
- Regulatory block risk on Nickel Brazil — EC Phase II review could require remedies or block the MMG transaction.
- Capital allocation discipline — pressure to deliver synergies while managing parallel divestments, integration, Woodsmith decisions and Chilean tailings remediation.
11. Recent Developments
Last 48 hours / past week:
- 14 April 2026: Standard PDMR Share Incentive Plan purchases disclosed for CEO Duncan Wanblad and several executives — 8 ordinary shares each at 3,592p. Routine monthly SIP under HMRC-approved all-employee plan.
- Share price drift: AAL closed 3,651p on 18 April, down from 3,711p previous close, but remains near the upper end of the 52-week range (high 3,877p, low 1,951p).
- No RNS announcements on Anglo American plc in the 48 hours immediately prior to 20 April 2026 beyond routine holdings/Total Voting Rights style notices. Q1 2026 Production Report is expected in late April.
Last 6 months (newest first):
- 20 February 2026: Full-year 2025 results — revenue US$18.5bn (+5%), underlying EBITDA US$6.4bn (+2%), attributable loss US$3.7bn (driven by US$2.3bn De Beers impairment). Final dividend US$0.16/share (down from US$0.22). Net debt down to US$8.6bn from US$10.6bn. Underlying EPS from continuing ops: US$0.80.
- 20 February 2026: Mitsubishi Corporation investment agreement announced for Woodsmith — initial equity investment, up to 25% future stake pathway, annual Anglo Woodsmith spend ~US$300m until Board FID from 2028.
- 5 February 2026: Q4 2025 Production Report — copper full-year down 10% to 695kt; 2026 copper guidance cut to 700-760kt from 760-820kt (Collahuasi grades); Los Bronces second plant to restart temporarily in 2026 (+25kt).
- 16 December 2025: Government of Canada approval under Investment Canada Act for the Anglo-Teck merger.
- 9 December 2025: Shareholders of both Anglo and Teck approve the merger of equals at general meetings.
- November 2025: European Commission opens Phase II investigation into MMG's proposed acquisition of Anglo's Brazilian nickel business.
- 9 September 2025: Anglo American and Teck Resources announce merger of equals to form "Anglo Teck" — HQ Vancouver; 1.3301 Anglo shares per Teck share; US$4.5bn (~US$4.19/share) Anglo special dividend; US$800m p.a. synergy target by year 4; top-five copper producer globally.
- 19 August 2025: Anglo confirms reopening of formal sale process for the steelmaking coal portfolio following Peabody's termination. Arbitration commenced against Peabody.
- 31 July 2025: H1 2025 interim results — continued restructuring commentary; Valterra demerger now completed.
- June 2025: Peabody terminates the US$3.775bn steelmaking coal acquisition citing material adverse change following the April 2025 Moranbah North ignition event.
- 2 June 2025: Demerger of Valterra Platinum (formerly Anglo American Platinum) completed — Anglo retains ~19.9%. Share consolidation effective 1 June 2025.
- 30 April 2025: Shareholders approve Valterra demerger.
- 25 February 2025: De Beers and Botswana Government sign new 10-year Sales Agreement (extendable 5) and 25-year Debswana Mining Licences extension to 2054.
- 18 February 2025: Anglo agrees sale of Brazilian nickel business to MMG for up to US$500m.
Follow discussion on the ChartsView forum and wider market commentary on the ChartsView blog.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Production Report (historical pattern suggests 24-25 April) |
| 29 April 2026 | Annual General Meeting |
| 6 May 2026 | Final dividend payment date (US$0.16/share; ex-div 12 March LSE; 11 March JSE/BSE) |
| H1 2026 | H1 2026 Interim Results (historically end-July) |
| 19 August 2026 | Interim dividend ex-div (JSE/BSE) |
| 20 August 2026 | Interim dividend ex-div (LSE) |
| 29 September 2026 | Interim dividend payment (2025 final tranche pattern suggests same cadence) |
| 2026 (through year-end) | Expected: De Beers separation (consortium/Botswana); steelmaking coal sale; Anglo-Teck merger completion & US$4.5bn special dividend; Woodsmith tunnel reaches mine |
| 2027 | Woodsmith first polyhalite; Chile copper step-up begins |
| 2028 | Woodsmith FID by Anglo Board; Chile 2028 guidance expected >125kt higher than 2025 |
Full macro schedule for miners is tracked on our /economic-calendar.
Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. ChartsView does not publish analyst price targets, buy/sell/hold ratings or consensus estimates. All figures are sourced from Anglo American plc's own RNS filings, Full Year 2025 Results (20 February 2026), Q4 2025 Production Report (5 February 2026), merger documentation and public dividend calendars. Forward-looking statements are those of Anglo American management. Commodity prices, FX rates, regulatory outcomes and merger conditions can move materially. Always do your own due diligence and consider taking independent professional advice before making investment decisions.