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Anglo American (AAL.L) — Company Research

Last Updated: 8 September 2026

Anglo American is midway through the most aggressive restructuring in its hundred-and-nine-year history. Since 2024 it has demerged its platinum business, sold the residual stake in it, agreed to sell steelmaking coal and nickel, put De Beers up for sale, and agreed a merger of equals with Canada's Teck Resources to create a copper-led group to be renamed Anglo Teck. As at today that merger has not completed: the company is still Anglo American plc, the London ticker is still AAL, and Chinese antitrust approval remains the final outstanding regulatory condition. What is left of the underlying business is already transformed — copper produced 73% of first-half 2026 underlying EBITDA on 47% of revenue, at a 60% margin. This report sets out the reported figures on the bases the company actually used, the disposals still in flight, and the dates that matter. It contains no analyst opinions, price targets or ratings.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
CompanyAnglo American plc
ListingsLondon Stock Exchange (AAL, FTSE 100), with secondary listings in Johannesburg and Botswana
HeadquartersLondon, United Kingdom
SectorDiversified mining, increasingly copper-led
CEO / LeadershipDuncan Wanblad, Chief Executive Officer since 19 April 2022. John Heasley, Chief Financial Officer. Stuart Chambers, Chair.
Employees43,477 full-time employees on a FY2025 annual average basis, plus 39,364 contractors; approximately 60,000 employees and embedded contractors on a full-time-equivalent basis at 31 December 2025
Revenue (FY2025, continuing operations)$18,546m, up 4.5% on the re-presented FY2024 figure of $17,745m
Result attributable to shareholders (FY2025)Loss of $3,741m, after a $2.3bn pre-tax impairment of the De Beers natural diamonds business
Underlying EBITDA (FY2025, continuing)$6,417m at a 33% margin
Pending transactionMerger of equals with Teck Resources to form Anglo Teck plc. Not completed as at 8 September 2026. Chinese antitrust approval is the final outstanding regulatory milestone.
Share price4,190p (8 September 2026)
Market cap£44.9bn (approximately $60.8bn)
Shares in issue1,178,050,272 at 31 August 2026, no treasury shares; 98,906,534 are held by legacy buyback vehicles with voting rights waived
Net debt (30 June 2026)$8,234m, at 1.0x underlying EBITDA
Reporting currencyUS dollars; financial year ends 31 December

Figures are taken from the FY2025 preliminary results of 20 February 2026, the interim results of 30 July 2026 and the total voting rights announcement of 1 September 2026. Market data is as at 8 September 2026.

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Copper is now the business, and it is earning like it: in the first half of 2026 copper generated $2,936m of $4,002m group underlying EBITDA — 73% of the total — from 47% of revenue, at a 60% segment margin. Group EBITDA rose 35% year on year and the margin moved from 32% to 38%.
  • The disposal programme has actually delivered cash: the platinum business was demerged as Valterra in May 2025 and the residual 19.9% stake sold for approximately $2.5bn in September 2025. Steelmaking coal is under contract to Dhilmar for up to $3.875bn, with $2.3bn payable upfront. Net debt fell from $10,623m at the end of 2024 to $8,571m and then $8,234m, and leverage is down to 1.0x.
  • The merger carries a large, pre-agreed cash return: the terms provide for a special dividend of $4.5bn to Anglo American shareholders, approximately $4.19 per share, declared and approved ahead of completion. Anglo holders take approximately 62.4% of the combined group, the London listing remains primary, and $800m of pre-tax recurring annual synergies are targeted.
  • The Chilean growth pipeline is contracted, not aspirational: the Codelco joint mine plan across Los Bronces and Andina was completed in June 2026 after regulatory approval, and is expected to add roughly 120,000 tonnes of copper a year on average from 2030 to 2051, shared equally. Collahuasi debottlenecking stage one is due to deliver first production in the fourth quarter of 2026.
  • Unit costs are falling into a rising price: group copper C1 cash costs fell to 136 cents per pound in the first half of 2026 from 155 cents, with Quellaveco at 45 cents against 88 cents, while the copper market price rose 39% to 593 cents per pound. Attributable free cash flow rose 149% to $803m.

Bear Case

  • The merger is unfinished and the last approval is the hardest: China's State Administration for Market Regulation is the sole outstanding regulatory condition, is reviewing under the normal procedure, and reporting suggests the review clock may be paused. Completion is guided only to a window between September 2026 and March 2027. If it breaks, both the $4.19 per share special dividend and the Anglo Teck re-rating disappear from a share price that has roughly doubled from its pre-announcement low of 2,263.9p.
  • There is no diversification left to cushion a copper downcycle: platinum, thermal coal, steelmaking coal and nickel are gone or going, and diamonds are for sale. The entire $1.0bn year-on-year EBITDA increase in the first half of 2026 was $1.2bn of price benefit net of $0.4bn of adverse currency, inflation and volume effects. The post-merger group is explicitly designed for more than 70% copper exposure.
  • Three consecutive years of statutory losses: $3,068m in FY2024, $3,741m in FY2025 and $858m in the first half of 2026. The drivers were a $2.9bn De Beers carrying-value reduction, a further $2.3bn De Beers impairment and $943m of pre-tax steelmaking coal impairments. There is no meaningful trailing price-to-earnings ratio because there are no trailing earnings.
  • Disposals are agreed but unclosed, and one is not even agreed: the coal sale to Dhilmar completes only by the first quarter of 2027 and follows Peabody's termination of the earlier agreement, which is now in arbitration. The nickel sale to MMG is still in European Commission merger review. De Beers has no named buyer at all, only a formal sale process in a weak diamond market, with Venetia being paused for two years. Woodsmith's final investment decision is explicitly conditioned on deleveraging that depends on these completing.

3. Revenue Segments

The table below shows FY2025 group revenue including associates and joint ventures, on the continuing-operations basis. Group revenue of $19,325m reconciles to statutory revenue of $18,546m after removing $792m of associates and joint ventures.

Segment% of revenueWhat it is
Copper42.0%$8,122m revenue and $3,983m underlying EBITDA. Copper Chile (Los Bronces, a 44% share of Collahuasi, El Soldado and the Chagres smelter), Copper Peru (Quellaveco) and the Sakatti project in Finland. The engine of the group and the centre of the Teck merger rationale.
Premium Iron Ore34.4%$6,651m revenue and $2,873m underlying EBITDA. Kumba Iron Ore in South Africa (Sishen and Kolomela) and Minas-Rio in Brazil. High-grade, low-impurity ore that earns a premium over the 62% iron benchmark.
De Beers18.1%$3,493m revenue and a $511m underlying EBITDA loss. Rough and polished diamonds, held within continuing operations for accounting purposes despite being subject to a formal sale process. Loss-making, and the source of both recent large impairments.
Manganese2.4%$472m revenue and $127m underlying EBITDA. A 40% attributable interest in the South32-operated manganese ore operation at Groote Eylandt, Australia.
Corporate and other2.0%$392m revenue and $11m underlying EBITDA. Marketing and trading net margins, third-party shipping, ancillary products, unallocated corporate costs, exploration and the captive insurer.
Crop Nutrients1.0%$195m revenue and a $66m underlying EBITDA loss. The Woodsmith polyhalite project in North Yorkshire, still pre-production; revenue is almost entirely from Cibra, a Brazilian fertiliser distribution associate.

The mix has shifted sharply since. In the first half of 2026, copper reached 46.9% of group revenue and 73% of underlying EBITDA, iron ore 31.5% of revenue and 29% of EBITDA, and De Beers, corporate and crop nutrients were all net negative at the EBITDA line. One external customer within the copper segment accounted for $1,134m of first-half revenue, roughly 11% of the group total.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Anglo American digs ore out of long-life open-pit and underground mines, processes it into concentrate or pellets, and sells it at prices it does not set. In the first half of 2026 the average copper market price was 593 cents per pound and the 62% iron ore benchmark was $106 per tonne. The company controls volume, cost and grade; it does not control price. This is why the entire year-on-year EBITDA improvement decomposes to $1.2bn of price, offset by $0.4bn of currency, inflation and volume drag, with a $0.1bn cost benefit.

Where the durability comes from. Mining moats are geological and regulatory rather than commercial. Quellaveco, Collahuasi and Los Bronces are large, long-life, high-grade orebodies in established jurisdictions, and the permits attached to them took decades to assemble. Quellaveco alone produced $1,500m of first-half EBITDA at a 69% margin from a single mine. Kumba's ore commands a premium over the benchmark because of its grade and low impurity content. These positions cannot be bought or built quickly, which is precisely why the Teck merger exists: the strategic prize is the physical adjacency of Collahuasi to Teck's Quebrada Blanca operation.

How the cost position is defended. The group delivered $1.8bn of run-rate cost savings by the FY2025 results and cut copper C1 cash costs to 136 cents per pound in the first half of 2026 from 155 cents. Being low on the cost curve is the only defence a price-taker has in a downcycle, and it is the explicit logic behind selling the higher-cost, more volatile businesses.

What the restructuring is actually for. The portfolio programme is a deliberate trade of breadth for margin. Revenue on the continuing basis is roughly half the total-operations figure of four years ago, but the first-half 2026 EBITDA margin of 38% compares with 32% a year earlier, and attributable return on capital employed rose from 9% to 15%. The intended end state, after the Teck merger and the remaining disposals, is a copper-dominated group with more than 70% of exposure in one metal.

5. Financial Health

Anglo American has re-presented its accounts twice in two years as businesses moved into discontinued operations. The annual table below is therefore explicitly labelled by basis, and the two bases are not comparable. FY2021 to FY2023 are total operations as originally reported, including platinum, steelmaking coal, nickel and De Beers. FY2024 and FY2025 are continuing operations, which excludes steelmaking coal, nickel and platinum but still includes De Beers.

Fiscal YearRevenue ($m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY2021 (total operations)41,554+63.0%$6.93$7.22419c†$12,856m
FY2022 (total operations)35,118−15.5%$3.72$4.97198c$14,365m
FY2023 (total operations)30,652−12.7%$0.23$2.4296c$16,912m
FY2024 (continuing, re-presented)17,745n/m‡($2.53)$1.6064c$18,210m
FY2025 (continuing operations)18,546+4.5%($3.30)$0.5423c$15,481m

† The FY2021 dividend of 419 US cents includes 130 cents of special dividends alongside the 289 cent ordinary distribution. Later years carry no special dividend. ‡ The FY2024 year-on-year change is not meaningful because the basis changes at that row: FY2024 revenue was originally reported as $27,290m on a total-operations basis in February 2025 and re-presented to $17,745m in February 2026 as $9.5bn moved into discontinued operations. Any comparison of a $27.3bn FY2024 figure against an $18.5bn FY2025 figure produces a phantom 32% decline. The like-for-like move is plus 4.5%, against the re-presented FY2024 base.

Adjusted EPS is Anglo's own underlying earnings per share measure, stated on the total-operations basis in each year. GAAP EPS is basic earnings or loss per share attributable to equity shareholders. Long-term debt is total borrowings at the year end. Two further discontinuities matter: the share consolidation carried out alongside the Valterra Platinum demerger on 31 May 2025 reduced the weighted average share count from 1,192m to 1,072m, so per-share figures before and after that date sit on different denominators; and FY2022 balance sheet figures were restated for the amendment to IAS 12.

The real contraction in the revenue line is not an accounting artefact. Anglo American genuinely is close to half the company it was in 2021, because it has sold or demerged platinum, thermal coal, steelmaking coal and nickel, with diamonds to follow. The question the figures pose is whether a smaller, higher-margin, copper-concentrated group is worth more than the larger diversified one it replaced.

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)$9,926m$0.58($0.80)
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)$8,954m$0.15($1.58)
H1 2024 (to 30 Jun 2024)$9,584m$1.06($0.55)
FY2025 full year$18,546m$0.54($3.30)

Anglo American reports half-yearly rather than quarterly, though it publishes standalone quarterly production reports. Revenue is on the continuing-operations basis; adjusted and GAAP EPS are total-group figures, consistent with the annual table above. The first-half 2026 loss per share of $0.80 is entirely a discontinued-operations effect: continuing operations delivered positive basic EPS of $0.28 and underlying EPS of $0.77, while the $1.08 discontinued-operations loss per share reflects writing steelmaking coal down to the agreed Dhilmar sale price.

From the interim results of 30 July 2026, covering the six months to 30 June 2026: revenue $9,926m, up 11%; underlying EBITDA $4,002m, up 35%, at a 38% margin against 32%; cash flows from operations $3,523m; total capital expenditure $1,489m, of which $1,125m was sustaining; attributable free cash flow $803m, up 149%; net debt $8,234m at 1.0x underlying EBITDA; total borrowings $17,261m following $2.3bn of March 2026 bond issuance; and liquidity of $15.5bn. Copper production was 344kt, flat year on year, premium iron ore 30.6Mt, down 2%, and manganese ore 1,667kt, up 52%. An interim dividend of $0.23 per share was declared, at the company's 40% payout policy. Impairments in the period were $943m pre-tax on steelmaking coal and $25m on nickel.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Share price4,190p (8 September 2026)
Market cap£44.90bn, approximately $60.79bn at GBPUSD 1.3541, on the 1,071.5m share count used by data providers. On the full 1,178.1m shares in issue the figure would be £49.4bn, approximately $66.8bn; the 106.6m difference is largely the 98.9m shares held by legacy buyback vehicles with voting rights waived.
Enterprise valueApproximately $69.2bn (market cap $60.79bn plus total borrowings $17.26bn less cash $8.87bn, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Cross-checks against market cap plus reported net debt of $8.23bn, which gives $69.0bn.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)Not meaningful. Trailing twelve-month GAAP earnings are negative — the group has reported losses attributable to shareholders in FY2024, FY2025 and the first half of 2026, driven by De Beers and steelmaking coal impairments rather than by operating performance. On the company's underlying earnings measure, trailing continuing-operations EPS of approximately $1.25 (FY2025 $0.80 less H1 2025 $0.32 plus H1 2026 $0.77) against a share price of $56.74 implies roughly 45x.
P/E (forward)Approximately 24.0x on a forward EPS estimate of $1.74. Anglo American does not publish an earnings forecast, so this is a market-derived figure rather than company guidance.
P/S (TTM)Approximately 3.1x (market cap $60.79bn divided by trailing twelve-month continuing revenue of $19,518m, being FY2025 $18,546m less H1 2025 $8,954m plus H1 2026 $9,926m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)Approximately 9.3x (enterprise value $69.2bn divided by trailing twelve-month underlying EBITDA of $7,464m, being FY2025 $6,417m less H1 2025 $2,955m plus H1 2026 $4,002m). This uses continuing-operations underlying EBITDA, the wider of the two measures Anglo discloses; the total-group figure including discontinued operations was $3,830m for the first half. Underlying EBITDA excludes the $943m of steelmaking coal impairments, which sit in special items.
P/FCFApproximately 23x (market cap $60.79bn divided by free cash flow of $2,612m; free cash flow equals trailing operating cash flow of $5,798m less trailing capital expenditure of $3,186m). On Anglo's own narrower attributable free cash flow measure, which is after minorities, the trailing figure is approximately $1,271m and the multiple would be roughly 48x. The gap between the two is minority interests, principally at Kumba and Quellaveco.
Dividend yieldApproximately 0.69% on trailing declared dividends of $0.39 per share (FY2025 final $0.16 plus H1 2026 interim $0.23). This excludes the $4.19 per share special dividend that is conditional on merger completion.
52-week high4,321p, set on 28 August 2026
52-week low2,263.9p, set on 8 September 2025 — the day before the Teck merger was announced
Short interest (% of float)1.70% of issued share capital, position date 3 September 2026, per the FCA aggregated net short positions file. That implies roughly 20.0m shares short. Individually disclosed positions above the 0.5% threshold in mid-2026 were held by Pentwater Capital Management and HBK Services — names associated with merger arbitrage rather than a directional bear position.
Days to coverApproximately 3.5 days, derived by dividing the implied 20.0m shares short by the three-month average London volume of 5.72m shares. The UK regime does not publish a days-to-cover figure directly, so this is calculated rather than disclosed.
Net debt / EBITDA1.0x at 30 June 2026, down from 1.3x at 31 December 2025

One warning on the valuation multiples above: every one of them is calculated on a company that is contracted to change shape. Completion of the Teck merger would add Teck's assets, issue approximately 1.3301 Anglo shares for each Teck share, and pay out approximately $4.5bn in a special dividend, while the coal and nickel disposals would remove further assets and bring in cash. For live technical levels see our Live Charts page.

7. What Are They Building

Collahuasi, Chile. Anglo holds 44% of Collahuasi and is debottlenecking it in stages. Stage one adds crushing capacity and flotation cells to lift throughput from roughly 170,000 to 185,000 tonnes per day, adding around 10,000 tonnes a year on Anglo's share, with first production due in the fourth quarter of 2026 and less than $0.1bn of the $0.2bn budget remaining. Stage two takes throughput to the full permitted 210,000 tonnes per day from late 2027, adding a further 15,000 tonnes a year on Anglo's share. A standalone stage three, comprising a fourth processing line and mine expansion, could add up to 150,000 tonnes a year on Anglo's share from the mid-2030s, subject to studies, permitting and shareholder negotiations.

The Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca integration. This is the single largest value item in the merger case and it sits outside the $800m of corporate synergies. Collahuasi is physically adjacent to Teck's Quebrada Blanca operation, and the announcement quantifies operational integration at approximately $1.4bn of average annual underlying EBITDA uplift on a 100% basis over 2030 to 2049, equating to roughly 175,000 tonnes of additional annual copper production, with first production targeted as early as 2030. It remains subject to shareholder negotiations and permitting. A live complication: the environmental authorisation for the Collahuasi desalination plant was set aside by Chile's Second Environmental Tribunal in May 2026, and the mine is running on alternative water sources while Anglo works to restart it.

Los Bronces and the Codelco joint mine plan. The definitive agreement with Codelco to run a joint mine plan across Los Bronces and the adjacent Andina mine was completed in June 2026, following competition and regulatory approvals. It is expected to deliver approximately 120,000 tonnes of copper a year on average over 2030 to 2051, shared equally between the parties, and was framed at announcement as unlocking at least $5bn of value. Implementation remains conditional on environmental permits, currently expected by 2030. Nearer term, restarting the second processing plant at Los Bronces drove first-half 2026 production up 19% to 95kt.

Quellaveco, Peru. Stage-one debottlenecking, approved in 2025, added a second pebble crusher and further flotation cells. Both are installed and under commissioning, taking throughput to approximately 142,000 tonnes per day with improved recoveries by late 2026, against a permit that now allows 150,000. Capital cost is approximately $0.1bn with less than $0.1bn remaining. Early studies support a longer-term expansion.

Woodsmith, North Yorkshire. The polyhalite project remains pre-production and unapproved. The service shaft has reached 904m of a required 1,600m, the production shaft was paused in June 2024 at 712m, and the mineral transport tunnel stands at 30.4km of 37km. Spend is approximately $0.3bn in 2026 and a further $0.25bn in 2027. A final investment decision is not expected until 2028 and is conditional on a feasibility study demonstrating robust economics, a clear pathway to syndication, and sufficient deleveraging. Mitsubishi Corporation signed an investment agreement in February 2026 signalling an intention to evaluate a potential 25% stake at that decision point.

Sakatti, Finland. The greenfield copper, nickel and PGM option in Finnish Lapland, with the second phase of the pre-feasibility study targeted for completion in December 2026.

8. Competitive Landscape

Anglo American competes for the same copper and iron ore markets as the other diversified majors, and increasingly for the same investor demand for copper exposure. Market capitalisations below were re-checked live on 8 September 2026 and converted at that day's rates.

PeerMarket cap (September 2026)Key 2025 metric
BHP Group (BHP)$229.8bnFY2026, to 30 June 2026: underlying EBITDA $32.9bn, up 27%, at a 59% margin. Copper revenue rose $6.5bn to $29.0bn and copper EBITDA rose $5.9bn to $18.2bn, more than half of group EBITDA for the first time. Produced roughly 2.0Mt of copper, the world's largest producer for a second year.
Rio Tinto (RIO.L)£124.3bn, approximately $168.3bnH1 2026, to 30 June 2026: underlying EBITDA $14.8bn, up 28%; copper EBITDA up 84% to $5.7bn; free cash flow up 75% to $3.8bn; copper-equivalent production up 3%.
Glencore (GLEN.L)£70.9bn, approximately $96.0bnH1 2026: own-sourced copper production 397kt, up 15% from 343.9kt, with full-year guidance maintained at 810 to 870kt. Adjusted industrial EBITDA $6.5bn, up 72%.
Vale (VALE)$65.0bnQ2 2026: iron ore production 84.3Mt, up 1% year on year on record S11D output plus Capanema and VGR1; iron ore sales 79.7Mt, up 2.4Mt. Full-year 2026 iron ore guidance 335 to 345Mt. The principal comparator for Anglo's premium iron ore business.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)$104.4bnQ2 2026: revenue $7.03bn; net income $984m, or $0.68 per share; adjusted net income $1.1bn. Sold 710 million pounds of copper at a realised $6.17 per pound, against full-year 2026 guidance of approximately 3.1 billion pounds.
Teck Resources (TECK)$33.9bnThe merger counterparty rather than a competitor. Anglo American shareholders would take approximately 62.4% of the combined group and Teck holders approximately 37.6%, at an exchange ratio of 1.3301 Anglo shares per Teck share.

The comparison that matters is against BHP and Freeport, both of which are further along the copper concentration path Anglo is now travelling. BHP produced roughly 2.0Mt of copper in its 2026 financial year against Anglo's 344kt in the first half of 2026; Freeport guides to approximately 3.1 billion pounds, around 1.4Mt. Anglo is buying scale in copper through the Teck merger rather than building it.

9. Insider Activity

The chief executive is Duncan Wanblad, appointed on 19 April 2022 and confirmed still in post, having been named as the designated chief executive of Anglo Teck after the merger. John Heasley is chief financial officer and is likewise designated to continue; Stuart Chambers is chair and would be succeeded by Sheila Murray on completion, with Teck's Jonathan Price becoming deputy chief executive.

Only routine all-employee share plan activity was disclosed during 2026.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Duncan Wanblad (Chief Executive Officer)15 Jun 2026Acquisition of partnership and matching shares6£41.19Approximately £247Share Incentive Plan
John Heasley (Chief Financial Officer)15 Jun 2026Acquisition of partnership and matching shares6£41.19Approximately £247Share Incentive Plan

These are automatic monthly salary-deduction purchases under an HMRC-approved all-employee plan, not discretionary signalling trades. Beyond them, no discretionary insider buying or selling by Anglo American directors was disclosed in 2026. That absence should be read in context rather than as a signal: directors sit inside a live, price-sensitive cross-border merger with an outstanding Chinese antitrust decision, which effectively places them in a continuous closed period. The company's own share purchase transactions page carries no entries after February 2022, when the last buyback programme completed.

10. Key Risks

  • Merger completion: Chinese antitrust approval is the sole outstanding regulatory condition, is being reviewed under the normal procedure, and reporting suggests the review clock may be paused as a Phase 3 deadline approaches. Completion is guided only to a window between September 2026 and March 2027, with no fixed date. China absorbs roughly half of global refined copper output and weighs strategic supply-chain considerations alongside competition. A failure would remove both the approximately $4.19 per share special dividend and the Anglo Teck rationale from a share price that has roughly doubled off its 2,263.9p pre-announcement low.
  • Single-commodity concentration: copper produced 73% of first-half 2026 underlying EBITDA on 47% of revenue, and the entire year-on-year EBITDA increase was price-driven. Platinum, thermal coal, steelmaking coal and nickel have been sold or demerged and diamonds are for sale, so there is essentially no remaining diversification to absorb a copper downcycle. The post-merger group targets more than 70% copper exposure by design.
  • Woodsmith is an open-ended capital commitment with no approval and no revenue: the Crop Nutrients segment lost $66m of EBITDA on $195m of revenue in FY2025 and a further $49m in the first half of 2026. Two shafts remain incomplete, one paused since June 2024, spend continues at roughly $0.3bn a year, and the final investment decision is not expected before 2028 and is explicitly conditional on deleveraging that depends on disposals completing.
  • Disposal execution and litigation: steelmaking coal completes only by the first quarter of 2027 and is subject to competition clearances and pre-emption rights; nickel remains in European Commission review; De Beers has no named buyer. Anglo is simultaneously in arbitration with Peabody over the terminated 2024 coal agreement, and the Kabwe class action in Zambia over alleged lead-related health impacts is at the certification stage.
  • Chilean water and permitting: the Second Environmental Tribunal set aside the environmental authorisation for the Collahuasi desalination plant in May 2026, and the mine is running on alternative sources. Anglo's own guidance carries the caveat that copper production is subject to water availability, the El Soldado life-extension permit was only submitted in the second quarter of 2026, and the Los Bronces joint mine plan remains conditional on permits expected by 2030.
  • South African rail and currency exposure at Kumba: Anglo states in its own guidance footnotes that Kumba production is subject to third-party rail and port availability. FY2025 Kumba results included penalty income received from Transnet, a direct admission of rail underperformance. Kumba unit costs rose to $46 per tonne in the first half of 2026 from $39, driven by a stronger rand that cost the group $0.2bn of EBITDA, and FY2026 production is being cut to 31 to 33Mt for a plant tie-in.
  • Peru single-asset concentration: Quellaveco alone contributed $1,500m of first-half 2026 EBITDA at a 69% margin, roughly 37% of the group total, from one mine. First-half production fell 6% on lower grades, EBITDA absorbed a provision for Peruvian profit-sharing costs, planned concentrator maintenance in 2027 will further reduce output, and guidance shows Peru declining from 310 to 340kt in 2026 to 290 to 320kt in 2028.
  • A record of impairments producing statutory losses: three consecutive reporting periods of losses attributable to shareholders, driven by a $2.9bn De Beers carrying-value reduction in FY2024, a $2.3bn De Beers impairment in FY2025 and $943m of steelmaking coal impairments in the first half of 2026. FY2025 sensitivity disclosures show a 0.5% move in the discount rate alone shifts the impairment charge by $0.2bn.

11. Recent Developments

  • 01 Sep 2026 — Special dividend and name change mechanics published. A total voting rights announcement confirmed 1,178,050,272 shares in issue and set out the timetable mechanics for the $4.5bn special dividend and the change of name to Anglo Teck plc, including a new share code and short name. It also confirmed the merger remains subject to outstanding conditions.
  • 30 Jul 2026 — Interim results for the first half of 2026. Underlying EBITDA of $4,002m, up 35%, on revenue of $9,926m; net debt down to $8.2bn at 1.0x; an interim dividend of $0.23. The chief executive confirmed Chinese antitrust approval as the final outstanding regulatory milestone and completion within the original September 2026 to March 2027 window. The Anglo Teck executive leadership team was announced the same day.
  • 23 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter production report published, followed on 28 July 2026 by Kumba Iron Ore interim results and Copper Mark recognition for Quellaveco, Los Bronces, El Soldado and Chagres.
  • 24 Jun 2026 — Codelco joint mine plan completed. The definitive agreement covering Los Bronces and Andina was completed following competition and regulatory approvals, opening the path to approximately 120,000 tonnes a year of additional copper on average over 2030 to 2051, shared equally.
  • 18 May 2026 — Steelmaking coal sold to Dhilmar for up to $3.875bn. The structure is $2.3bn upfront plus up to $1.575bn of coal-price-linked earnout, with completion expected by the first quarter of 2027. Arbitration against Peabody over the terminated 2024 agreement continues.
  • 18 May 2026 — Collahuasi desalination permit set aside. Chile's Second Environmental Tribunal annulled the environmental authorisation for the plant; the operation continues on alternative water sources.
  • 29 Apr 2026 — Annual general meeting held, following the first-quarter production report on 28 April 2026.
  • 20 Feb 2026 — FY2025 preliminary results. Continuing-operations underlying EBITDA of $6.4bn, net debt down to $8.6bn, $1.8bn of run-rate cost savings delivered and a $2.3bn pre-tax De Beers impairment, with a total dividend of $0.23. Anglo also announced a Woodsmith investment agreement with Mitsubishi Corporation covering a potential future 25% equity stake at final investment decision.
  • 05 Feb 2026 — Fourth-quarter 2025 production report published. In the same month the Queensland regulator lifted the final directives at Moranbah North, allowing a staged restart to longwall production.
  • 16 Dec 2025 — Canadian government approval for the merger under the Investment Canada Act, following approval by both Anglo American and Teck shareholders on 9 December 2025.
  • 09 Sep 2025 — Merger of equals with Teck Resources announced, five days after the sale of the residual 19.9% Valterra Platinum stake for approximately $2.5bn completed Anglo's exit from platinum.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 14 Sep 2026 — currency conversion rates announced for the interim dividend
  • 29 Sep 2026 — interim dividend No.49 payment date, at $0.23 per share. The London ex-dividend date of 20 August 2026 and record date of 21 August 2026 have both passed
  • 14 Oct 2026 — dividend reinvestment plan results released
  • 20 Oct 2026 — third-quarter 2026 production report, confirmed on the company investor calendar for 06:00 GMT
  • TBD — Teck merger completion. Guided to a window between September 2026 and March 2027 with no fixed date, gated on Chinese antitrust approval. Once the remaining conditions are satisfied, completion follows eleven trading days later
  • TBD — declaration and finalisation announcement for the $4.5bn special dividend, to be published no later than eight trading days before the special dividend record date, which is itself triggered by satisfaction of the remaining merger conditions. The same announcement will carry the timetable for the change of name to Anglo Teck plc and the new share code
  • Expected Feb 2027 — FY2026 preliminary results, alongside the fourth-quarter production report and the FY2026 final dividend notice. The FY2025 equivalents were published on 20 February 2026
  • Expected Mar 2027 — completion of the steelmaking coal sale to Dhilmar, guided to the first quarter of 2027
  • Expected Apr 2027 — annual general meeting, alongside the first-quarter production report. The 2026 meeting was held on 29 April 2026, though the 2027 meeting may be convened by Anglo Teck plc if the merger completes first
  • Expected Dec 2026 — completion of the second phase of the Sakatti pre-feasibility study
  • Expected Jan 2028 — earliest window for the Woodsmith final investment decision, which management describes as preparing for from 2028

Two items sit outside a dated timetable. The De Beers sale process has no named buyer and no deadline beyond management's commitment to provide an update through the course of 2026. The nickel sale to MMG remains in European Commission merger control review with no announced decision date. Readers tracking the macro backdrop against which these events land may find our Economic Calendar useful, and discussion of individual holdings continues in the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
49 / 100

The central thesis. Anglo American mines and sells copper, premium iron ore, diamonds and manganese at prices it does not set, and is deliberately shrinking into a copper-led group: copper produced $2,936m of $4,002m underlying EBITDA in the first half of 2026, 73% of the total, on 47% of revenue at a 60% segment margin. FY2025 continuing-operations revenue was $18,546m with underlying EBITDA of $6,417m, but a $2.3bn De Beers impairment drove a $3,741m attributable loss, the third consecutive loss-making period. The first half of 2026 showed the intended shape: revenue up 11% to $9,926m, EBITDA up 35%, the margin from 32% to 38%, net debt down to $8,234m at 1.0x, and an interim dividend of $0.23 at the 40% payout policy. The near-term catalyst is binary rather than operational — the merger of equals with Teck Resources to form Anglo Teck, which carries an agreed $4.5bn special dividend of approximately $4.19 per share and remains gated on Chinese antitrust approval within a September 2026 to March 2027 window.

What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be Chinese antitrust clearance and merger completion with the special dividend paid, followed by the Collahuasi stage-one debottlenecking delivering first production in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the Dhilmar coal sale completing by the first quarter of 2027. The thesis would be invalidated by the "Merger completion:" risk materialising — a Chinese refusal or indefinite pause removing both the special dividend and the Anglo Teck rationale from a share price that has roughly doubled from its 2,263.9p pre-announcement low — or by the copper price reversing into a portfolio that has sold away every other source of diversification, or by the De Beers and nickel disposals failing to complete and deferring the deleveraging on which the Woodsmith investment decision is explicitly conditioned.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsQ3 2026 production report (42 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Copper is now the business, and it is earning like it:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Merger completion:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 4
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Negative
High-sev risks
1 of 8
Recent news
Net upgrades
Generated
8 Sep 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 8 Sep 2026.