Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — Company Research

Last Updated: 7 September 2026

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company makes the chips that almost every AI ambition depends on, and in 2026 it has stopped pretending otherwise. Second-quarter revenue reached a record NT$1,270.38bn, gross margin hit 67.7%, and net income rose 77% year on year — the fifth consecutive record quarter. Management has raised full-year revenue growth guidance to more than 40% in US-dollar terms and lifted 2026 capital expenditure to a range of US$60bn to US$64bn, then committed a further US$100bn to Arizona on top of what was already the largest foreign direct investment in American manufacturing history. This report works through the reported figures — in New Taiwan dollars, as TSMC reports them, with the US-dollar equivalents the company itself publishes — and shows every valuation input as a calculation.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Ticker / exchange	TSM American Depositary Shares on the New York Stock Exchange; ordinary shares trade in Taipei as TWSE 2330. One ADR represents five ordinary shares
CEO / Leadership	Dr. C.C. Wei, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (Chairman since June 2024, CEO since June 2018); Wendell Huang, Chief Financial Officer
Employees	90,557 worldwide at the end of 2025, up 8.0% from 83,825 a year earlier (2025 Form 20-F and annual report)
Revenue (FY2025)	NT$3,809.05bn, equivalent to US$122.42bn, up 31.6% year on year
Net income (FY2025)	NT$1,717.88bn attributable to shareholders of the parent; diluted EPS NT$66.25 per ordinary share
Revenue (trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026)	NT$4,440.49bn
Market cap	US$2,224.5bn (4 September 2026 ADR close of $428.91 across 5,186,474,013 ADRs, representing 25,932,370,067 ordinary shares)
Foundry market share (FY2025)	Approximately 69.9% of the pure-play foundry market
Dividend	Quarterly. NT$22.00 per ordinary share declared in respect of FY2025, rising to NT$7.00 a quarter for the 2026 declarations
Most recent reported period	Q2 2026, reported 16 July 2026. Q3 2026 has not yet been reported

Live price action for TSM and the wider semiconductor complex can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Pricing power is now visible in the margin line: gross margin expanded from 58.8% in Q1 2025 to 67.7% in Q2 2026 and operating margin from 48.5% to 60.3% over the same six quarters. TSMC is reportedly raising sub-5nm wafer prices 3% to 5% for 2026, a fourth consecutive annual increase, and customers are paying it.
• Near-monopoly at the leading edge: TSMC held roughly 69.9% of the pure-play foundry market in FY2025 against Samsung Foundry's 7.2%, and Intel Foundry lost US$10.32bn at operating level on US$17.83bn of FY2025 revenue. There is currently no second source for volume 2nm production.
• The 2nm ramp is ahead of schedule and already material: N2 reached 3% of wafer revenue in Q2 2026 having only entered volume production in late 2025, with monthly capacity targeted at 120,000 to 130,000 wafers by the end of 2026. Apple has reportedly booked more than half the initial allocation.
• Overseas fabs are turning profitable faster than expected: the Arizona operation generated roughly NT$36.1bn of cumulative profit in the first half of 2026 alone, against NT$16.1bn for the whole of 2025, and the Kumamoto joint venture swung to profit in Q1 2026. The margin-dilution drag investors feared is shrinking.
• Cash generation funds the capex bill internally: trailing operating cash flow of NT$2,634.68bn covered trailing capital expenditure of NT$1,510.01bn with NT$1,124.67bn of free cash flow left over, while cash and short-term investments stood at NT$3,597.44bn against total debt of NT$1,064.95bn at 30 June 2026.

Bear Case

• Geographic concentration is unhedgeable: the overwhelming majority of leading-edge capacity remains on one island in a contested strait. No amount of Arizona, Kumamoto or Dresden capacity changes that within this decade, and the risk is binary rather than gradual.
• Capital intensity is climbing faster than revenue: capex guidance rose from a prior US$52bn to US$56bn range to US$60bn to US$64bn for 2026, with the CFO indicating the next three years will be significantly heavier than the last three. If AI demand normalises, the depreciation from this build-out arrives regardless.
• Customer concentration on a handful of AI buyers: high-performance computing rose to 66% of Q2 2026 revenue from 58% for FY2025, and North America accounted for roughly 75% of FY2025 revenue. The revenue base has become more dependent on fewer end-customers than at any point in TSMC's history.
• Trade policy is an unpriced variable: a 25% Section 232 tariff on a narrow set of advanced logic semiconductors took effect on 15 January 2026, and China AI-chip exports now require case-by-case licensing tied to a US government revenue share. Both act on TSMC's customers, and therefore on TSMC.
• Currency and the ADR premium both work against a US buyer: TSMC reports in New Taiwan dollars and has repeatedly flagged unfavourable exchange rates in its gross-margin bridges, while the ADR closed 4 September 2026 at a premium of roughly 12% to the Taipei-listed ordinary shares translated at spot. A US investor is paying twice for the same earnings stream.

3. Business Segments

TSMC operates as a single reportable segment — foundry — but discloses revenue by end-market platform and by process node. The FY2025 platform split is shown below, with the Q2 2026 comparison in the third column to make the AI shift visible.

Segment / platform	% of revenue	What it is
High performance computing	58% in FY2025, rising to 66% in Q2 2026	AI accelerators, data centre CPUs and GPUs, networking silicon — the Nvidia, AMD and hyperscaler custom-silicon business
Smartphone	29% in FY2025, falling to 22% in Q2 2026	Application processors and modems, dominated by Apple A-series and M-series silicon on leading-edge nodes
Internet of Things	5% in FY2025 and 5% in Q2 2026	Connected devices, wearables and edge processors, typically on mature and specialty nodes
Automotive	5% in FY2025, 4% in Q2 2026	Advanced driver assistance, infotainment and vehicle microcontrollers
Digital consumer electronics and others	3% in FY2025 and 3% in Q2 2026	Set-top boxes, televisions, games consoles and residual categories

By process node, FY2025 wafer revenue was 24% from 3nm, 36% from 5nm and 14% from 7nm, with advanced technologies of 7nm and below reaching 74% of wafer revenue against 69% in FY2024. In Q2 2026 the mix had moved again: 2nm 3%, 3nm 30%, 5nm 33% and 7nm 11%.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. TSMC does not design chips and does not sell them to end-users. It sells manufacturing capacity, priced per wafer, to companies that design silicon but own no fabs — Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom and, increasingly, Intel. Because it competes with none of its customers, it can host all of them, and it captures value from whichever design wins. Revenue is therefore a function of two things: how many wafers it can make, and what price the leading edge commands.

Where the durable advantage sits. The moat is compounding capital plus accumulated process knowledge. A leading-edge fab now costs tens of billions of dollars and takes years to bring to yield; the learning curve on each new node is the product of running the previous one at enormous volume. Advanced packaging reinforces this: CoWoS capacity is scaling toward 120,000 to 140,000 wafers a month by the end of 2026 from roughly 35,000 in late 2024, and lines are fully booked. An AI accelerator is not just a die — it is a die plus the packaging that only TSMC can currently supply at scale.

What the capital is buying. The US$60bn to US$64bn of 2026 capex is being spent to hold that lead through 2nm and A16, and to place capacity outside Taiwan for political rather than economic reasons. The Arizona commitment now stands at roughly US$265bn across around twelve facilities after the additional US$100bn announced on 16 July 2026.

Where the model is exposed. Fabs are fixed cost. A demand pause does not reduce depreciation, and TSMC has never faced a build-out of this magnitude concentrated on a single end-market. The company also sits inside a geopolitical fault line that no operational decision can fully mitigate.

5. Financial Health

TSMC reports in New Taiwan dollars under IFRS. Figures below are taken from TSMC's own quarterly earnings releases and management reports; fiscal years end 31 December. TSMC does not publish a non-GAAP or adjusted earnings measure, so the adjusted column repeats the reported diluted figure.

Fiscal Year	Revenue (NT$bn)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	1,587.42	+18.5%	NT$23.01	NT$23.01†	NT$11.00	NT$613.4bn
FY2022	2,263.89	+42.6%	NT$39.20	NT$39.20†	NT$11.00	NT$839.1bn
FY2023	2,161.74	-4.5%	NT$32.34	NT$32.34†	NT$13.00	NT$918.3bn
FY2024	2,894.31	+33.9%	NT$45.25	NT$45.25†	NT$17.00	NT$958.4bn
FY2025	3,809.05	+31.6%	NT$66.25	NT$66.25†	NT$22.00	NT$896.1bn

† TSMC publishes no adjusted or non-GAAP earnings measure, so the reported diluted figure is repeated. All per-share figures are per ordinary share; one ADR represents five ordinary shares, so the FY2025 figure is NT$331.25 per ADR. ‡ Long-term debt is the non-current portion of interest-bearing debt, being bonds payable plus long-term bank borrowings excluding lease liabilities and the current portion. Adding the current portion gives total interest-bearing debt of NT$1,032.99bn at 31 December 2025 and NT$1,018.29bn at 31 December 2024.

Cash generation over the twelve months to 30 June 2026: operating cash flow NT$2,634.68bn, capital expenditure NT$1,510.01bn, free cash flow NT$1,124.67bn, depreciation and amortisation NT$688.89bn. Cash and short-term investments stood at NT$3,597.44bn at 30 June 2026 against total debt of NT$1,064.95bn including lease liabilities, so TSMC is comfortably net cash. Shareholders' equity was NT$6,432.52bn.

Quarter / Half	Revenue (NT$bn)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	1,270.38	NT$27.25†	NT$27.25
Q1 2026	1,134.10	NT$22.08†	NT$22.08
Q4 2025	1,046.09	NT$19.50†	NT$19.50
Q3 2025	989.92	NT$17.44†	NT$17.44
Q2 2025	933.79	NT$15.36†	NT$15.36
Q1 2025	839.25	NT$13.94†	NT$13.94
FY2025 total	3,809.05	NT$66.25	NT$66.25

In US-dollar terms, which is how TSMC reports alongside the New Taiwan dollar figures, the same six quarters ran US$25.53bn, US$30.07bn, US$33.10bn, US$33.73bn, US$35.90bn and US$40.20bn, with earnings per ADR of US$2.12, US$2.47, US$2.92, US$3.14, US$3.49 and US$4.31. Monthly revenue disclosure through 2026 shows the acceleration continuing: January NT$401.26bn (+36.8%), February NT$317.66bn (+22.2%), March NT$415.19bn (+45.2%), April NT$410.73bn (+17.5%), May NT$416.98bn (+30.1%), June NT$442.68bn (+67.9%) and July NT$467.58bn (+44.7%), for a cumulative January-to-July figure of NT$2,872.06bn, up 37.0% on the same period of 2025.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

New Taiwan dollar figures are converted at NT$31.595 to the US dollar, the spot rate on 7 September 2026, so that every multiple is expressed against the ADR price.

Metric	Value
Market cap	US$2,224.5bn (5,186,474,013 ADRs at the $428.91 close of 4 September 2026). The Taipei-listed ordinary shares closed at NT$2,410, which translates to roughly US$2,014bn, so the ADR carries a premium of about 12%
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~31.4x (ADR price $428.91 / trailing twelve-month EPS of US$13.65 per ADR, being NT$86.27 per ordinary share summed across Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, multiplied by five and converted at NT$31.595). On the sum of TSMC's own reported US-dollar EPS per ADR of $13.86 the multiple is ~30.9x. TSMC publishes no adjusted earnings measure
P/E (forward)	~19.6x (ADR price $428.91 / forward EPS estimate of $21.86 per ADR)
P/S (TTM)	~15.8x (market cap US$2,224.5bn / trailing revenue NT$4,440.49bn, being US$140.6bn at NT$31.595)
Enterprise value	~US$2,144.4bn (market cap US$2,224.5bn + total debt NT$1,064.95bn or US$33.7bn − cash and short-term investments NT$3,597.44bn or US$113.9bn, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). TSMC is net cash, so enterprise value sits below market capitalisation
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~21.3x (EV US$2,144.4bn / EBITDA US$100.6bn; EBITDA = trailing operating income NT$2,491.08bn + depreciation and amortisation NT$688.89bn taken from the cash flow statement, giving NT$3,179.97bn)
P/FCF	~62.5x (market cap US$2,224.5bn / free cash flow US$35.6bn; FCF = trailing operating cash flow NT$2,634.68bn − capital expenditure NT$1,510.01bn, giving NT$1,124.67bn). The multiple is elevated because 2026 capex is running at a record NT$1.5tn annualised
52-week high	$479.00 intraday on the ADR
52-week low	$241.62 intraday on the ADR
Short interest (% of float)	Approximately 0.6%, being 30,161,233 ADRs short at the 14 August 2026 settlement date against 5,186,474,013 ADRs outstanding. Note that the commonly quoted float figure for TSM conflates ordinary shares with ADRs, so the ratio here is stated against ADRs outstanding
Days to cover	2.18 days at the 14 August 2026 settlement date
Dividend yield	~1.0% (NT$28.00 a year per ordinary share at the current NT$7.00 quarterly rate, being NT$140.00 or about US$4.43 per ADR against the $428.91 price)

The striking feature of this table is how ordinary the multiples look for a company growing revenue above 30% with a 60% operating margin. The forward multiple of under 20 times reflects the fact that consensus expects the earnings acceleration to continue; the trailing free cash flow multiple of 62 times reflects the fact that TSMC is spending almost everything it earns on capacity.

7. What Are They Building

N2 and the 2nm ramp. Volume production began in late 2025 at Fab 20 in Hsinchu and Fab 22 in Kaohsiung. N2 reached 3% of wafer revenue in Q2 2026, and monthly capacity is targeted at 120,000 to 130,000 wafers by the end of 2026. Reported wafer pricing of roughly US$30,000 for 2nm compares with about US$20,000 for 3nm and US$18,000 for 5nm.

A16 and beyond. TSMC originally targeted volume production of A16, which adds backside power delivery, for late 2026. An April 2026 roadmap update reported by TrendForce indicated a shift to 2027, with A12 and A13 nodes slotted for 2029. The timing remains genuinely disputed in the trade press and TSMC has not resolved it in a filing.

Arizona. On 16 July 2026, alongside Q2 results, TSMC announced an additional US$100bn of Arizona investment, taking the total commitment to roughly US$265bn across around twelve facilities and at least four more 2nm fabs. Fab 2, on 3nm, has completed construction with volume production expected in 2027; Fab 3 is targeted for 2030. The Arizona operation produced roughly NT$36.1bn of cumulative profit in the first half of 2026 against NT$16.1bn for the whole of 2025.

Japan and Germany. Construction of the second Kumamoto fab began on 28 October 2025 at a cost of about US$13.9bn, with the process upgraded from 6nm to 3nm on stronger demand and equipment installation expected around 2028. The Dresden ESMC facility, 70% owned by TSMC, has entered its main structural build with equipment move-in targeted for the second half of 2026 and production around 2027.

Advanced packaging. CoWoS monthly capacity is scaling toward 120,000 to 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026 from roughly 35,000 in late 2024, with the supply and demand gap expected to narrow from around 20% to around 10%. A next-generation CoPoS research line at VisEra is targeting pilot production in mid-2027.

8. Competitive Landscape

Market capitalisations below were re-checked live on 4 September 2026 rather than carried over. The point of the table is the asymmetry: TSMC is worth more than four times the combined value of every other foundry listed here, on a share of the pure-play market approaching seventy per cent.

Peer	Market cap (September 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)	US$1,310.2bn (KRW1,763.1tn at 1,345.7 won to the dollar)	FY2025 foundry market share of 7.2% on roughly US$12.63bn of foundry revenue, down 3.9% year on year, slipping further to 6.5% in Q1 2026. The group figure includes memory and handsets, not foundry alone
Intel (INTC)	US$506.4bn	FY2025 Intel Foundry revenue of US$17.83bn with an operating loss of US$10.32bn, widened from a US$2.25bn loss in 2024
SMIC (0981.HK)	HK$585.2bn, approximately US$75bn	FY2025 revenue of US$9.33bn, a record and up 16.2% year on year, for a foundry share of about 5.32%
United Microelectronics (UMC)	US$52.1bn	FY2025 revenue of NT$237.6bn, up 2.3%, with a gross margin of 29.0% and EPS of NT$3.34, for a foundry share of about 4.35%
GlobalFoundries (GFS)	US$24.8bn	FY2025 revenue of US$6.79bn, up 1% year on year, for a foundry share of about 3.9%

The competitive picture is not really about share today. It is about whether anyone can fund a credible second source at 2nm and below. Intel is ramping 18A while continuing to outsource leading-edge dies to TSMC — Intel's own chief executive described the relationship as a trusted partnership in June 2026 — and Samsung Foundry's share has fallen for consecutive periods. Reports of an Intel and TSMC joint venture have circulated but have not been confirmed by either company in a filing.

9. Insider Activity

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dr. C.C. Wei leads the company, having held the chief executive role since June 2018 and added the chairmanship in June 2024 following Dr. Mark Liu's retirement. TSMC is a foreign private issuer, which normally exempts officers from US Section 16 reporting, but in practice a number of TSMC officers do file Form 4s with the SEC covering their holdings of Taiwan-listed ordinary shares. The most recent verifiable filing is below.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Yuan Lipen (Vice President)	18 Aug 2026	Purchase of ordinary shares, including spouse and employee stock purchase trust holdings	2,350	US$73.58 to US$74.50 (NT$2,350 to NT$2,380)	~US$174,000	Routine officer filing, Form 4 filed 20 Aug 2026
Various officers	02 Sep 2026	Form 4 filings lodged with the SEC	Not individually reviewed	Not disclosed here	Not disclosed here	Routine officer filings

No Form 144 filings were located for TSMC, and Taiwan Stock Exchange director and manager shareholding disclosures are made under a separate local regime that does not map onto the US Form 4 format. Readers should treat the US filings as a partial rather than complete picture of insider activity at this company.

10. Key Risks

• Geopolitical concentration: the great majority of TSMC's advanced-node capacity sits in Taiwan. Cross-strait escalation, or any interruption to shipping and power in the region, would have consequences that no operational hedge can address. Overseas fabs are a decade-long mitigation, not a near-term one.
• Capital intensity and depreciation risk: 2026 capex guidance of US$60bn to US$64bn, with management indicating the next three years will be significantly heavier than the last three, locks in a rising depreciation charge. If AI accelerator demand normalises before that capacity is fully utilised, margins compress mechanically.
• Customer and end-market concentration: high-performance computing reached 66% of revenue in Q2 2026 and North America roughly 75% of FY2025 revenue. A capex pause at two or three hyperscalers would be felt directly and quickly.
• Tariffs and export controls: a 25% Section 232 tariff on a narrow set of advanced logic semiconductors took effect on 15 January 2026, and a parallel Bureau of Industry and Security rule moved China AI-chip exports to case-by-case licensing with a US government revenue share attached. Policy that constrains TSMC's customers constrains TSMC.
• Overseas fab margin dilution: TSMC's own 4Q25 management report cites margin dilution from overseas fabs as an offset to gross-margin gains. Arizona and Kumamoto have improved, but Dresden posted a loss in Q1 2026 and each new site starts the cycle again.
• Currency translation: TSMC reports in New Taiwan dollars while pricing largely in US dollars, and has repeatedly identified an unfavourable exchange rate as a drag in its quarterly gross-margin bridges. A stronger New Taiwan dollar compresses reported margin without any change in operations.
• Technology leakage and litigation: TSMC has sued former Senior Vice President Dr. Lo Wei-Jen in Taiwan's Intellectual Property and Commercial Court after his departure to Intel, and Taiwanese authorities have reportedly opened a National Security Act investigation. Intel has called the claims meritless. The case illustrates a structural risk as rivals recruit against TSMC's process knowledge.
• Natural hazard exposure: a magnitude 6.4 earthquake in southern Taiwan in January 2026 briefly disrupted fabs, and a magnitude 7.1 quake struck Kumamoto on 28 July 2026. TSMC reported no structural damage on either occasion, but the exposure is permanent.

11. Recent Developments

• 10 Aug 2026 — July revenue of NT$467.58bn, up 44.7% year on year. Cumulative January-to-July revenue reached NT$2,872.06bn, 37.0% ahead of the same period in 2025. August revenue is scheduled for release on 10 September 2026.
• 28 Jul 2026 — Magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Kumamoto, Japan. TSMC reported no structural damage at the JASM facility and a phased restart, and said the Q3 revenue outlook was unaffected.
• 16 Jul 2026 — Record Q2 2026 results and an additional US$100bn Arizona commitment. Revenue of NT$1,270.38bn or US$40.20bn, up 36% year on year; net income of NT$706.56bn, up 77.4% and a fifth consecutive record; gross margin 67.7% and operating margin 60.3%. Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to more than 40% in US-dollar terms and capex to US$60bn to US$64bn. The Arizona commitment rose to roughly US$265bn.
• 04 Jun 2026 — Annual shareholders' meeting held in Hsinchu. Shareholders approved the FY2025 results and amendments to the articles of incorporation.
• 23 Apr 2026 — Roadmap update reported A16 volume production shifting to 2027. TrendForce reported that A12 and A13 nodes are slotted for 2029, without high-NA EUV. The revised A16 timing has not been confirmed by TSMC in a filing and remains disputed.
• 16 Apr 2026 — FY2025 Form 20-F filed, disclosing 90,557 employees worldwide. Headcount rose 8.0% from 83,825 at the end of 2024.
• 15 Jan 2026 — A 25% Section 232 tariff took effect on a narrow set of advanced logic semiconductors. A parallel Bureau of Industry and Security rule introduced case-by-case licensing for China AI-chip exports tied to a US government revenue share, and a US-Taiwan trade agreement focused on reshoring chip manufacturing was announced the same day. Broad blanket semiconductor tariffs were not imposed.
• 28 Oct 2025 — Construction began on the second Kumamoto fab at a cost of about US$13.9bn. The process was upgraded from 6nm to 3nm on stronger than expected demand, with equipment installation expected around 2028.
• Jul 2025 — TSMC sued former Senior Vice President Dr. Lo Wei-Jen after his move to Intel. The action in Taiwan's Intellectual Property and Commercial Court alleges breach of non-compete and trade-secret obligations; Intel has said the claims are without merit.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 10 Sep 2026 — August 2026 monthly revenue release, per TSMC's published financial calendar.
• 16 Sep 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the NT$7.00 per ordinary share first-quarter 2026 dividend; record date 22 September 2026.
• 08 Oct 2026 — Payment date for the NT$7.00 first-quarter 2026 dividend, and September 2026 monthly revenue release.
• Expected 15 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings conference. TSMC has not yet added the date to its own financial calendar; this is the date indicated by scheduling services and consistent with the 16 October 2025 precedent.
• 10 Nov 2026 — October 2026 monthly revenue release.
• 10 Dec 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the NT$7.00 second-quarter 2026 dividend, and December monthly revenue release for November; record date 16 December 2026.
• 07 Jan 2027 — Payment date for the NT$7.00 second-quarter 2026 dividend.
• 08 Jan 2027 — December 2026 monthly revenue release, completing the FY2026 revenue picture ahead of results.
• TBC — Resolution of the A16 volume production timing, and confirmation of whether the node lands in late 2026 or 2027.
• TBD — 2027 annual shareholders' meeting, expected around June 2027 but not yet scheduled.

Macro releases that move the semiconductor complex, including US CPI and Federal Reserve decisions, are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and reader discussion of TSMC's node roadmap continues in the Forum.

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