Last Updated: 19 April 2026
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the single most important company in the current artificial intelligence build-out. It designs the GPUs, networking silicon, and full-stack software that trains and runs almost every significant AI model deployed today. In fiscal 2026 (ended 25 January 2026) the company generated $215.9 billion of revenue, up 65% year-on-year, with roughly 90% of that revenue coming from data centre products. This report pulls together the hard numbers and primary-source disclosures so traders can form their own view.
1. Company Snapshot
| Full name | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Ticker | NVDA (NASDAQ Global Select Market) |
| Sector / Industry | Information Technology / Semiconductors |
| Founded | 1993 |
| Headquarters | Santa Clara, California, USA |
| CEO | Jensen Huang (co-founder) |
| Market cap | ~$4.89 trillion (18 Apr 2026) |
| Revenue FY2026 | $215.9 billion (+65% YoY) |
| GAAP EPS FY2026 | $4.90 diluted |
| Employees | ~36,000 (latest 10-K disclosure) |
| Fiscal year end | Last Sunday of January |
| Website | nvidia.com |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Data centre revenue grew 68% in FY2026 to $193.7 billion. Management has stated there is roughly $1 trillion of GPU orders booked through calendar 2027 (Huang, multiple public statements).
- Gross margin sits at ~75% (Q4 FY2026 GAAP) and free cash flow was $96.7 billion for the fiscal year, up 59% YoY — the cash engine dwarfs the capital needs of the business.
- The next-generation Rubin platform begins shipping Q2 2026 with up to 3.3x the compute of Blackwell. OpenAI has committed to at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems, and Nvidia is investing up to $100 billion in OpenAI progressively as each gigawatt deploys (OpenAI/Nvidia joint release, September 2025).
- Anthropic, Marvell, Palantir, Nebius and Microsoft have all signed fresh multi-billion-dollar partnerships in the last six months, extending CUDA and NVLink reach even where customers use non-Nvidia accelerators.
- Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance is $78 billion (±2%) — another record — with management guiding non-GAAP gross margin near 75%.
Bear Case
- Customer concentration is extreme. Hyperscalers accounted for "just over 50%" of data centre revenue in Q4 FY2026 per CFO Colette Kress. Those same customers are building their own silicon — Google TPU v7, Amazon Trainium 3, OpenAI-Broadcom XPUs (reported $10 billion deal) and Anthropic's planned move to Broadcom/Alphabet TPUs from 2027.
- China exposure has already cost the company real revenue. Nvidia took a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 FY2026 tied to H20 export restrictions, missed a further $2.5 billion of H20 shipments that quarter, and management flagged roughly $8 billion of lost FY2026 H20 revenue.
- The U.S. Department of Justice antitrust probe into CUDA bundling and chip-allocation practices has advanced to the subpoena stage. Any forced change to bundling would directly hit the stickiest part of the moat.
- AMD is projected to reach ~30% of data centre GPU market share by the end of 2026 (internal trade-press estimates), with MI350 at ~$25,000 list price and MI400 carrying 432 GB of HBM4 memory.
- Insider selling is one-way: zero open-market purchases in the last 18 months versus $3.3+ billion of sales. CEO Huang's May 2025 10b5-1 plan authorised up to 6 million shares (~$865 million at filing).
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
Nvidia designs and sells the silicon, networking, and software that most of the world's AI models run on. The company does not own fabs — it designs chips and has them manufactured, principally by TSMC. Revenue comes from five reporting segments.
Revenue by segment — FY2026
| Segment | Revenue | % of total | YoY growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $193.74 bn | 89.7% | +68% |
| Gaming | $16.04 bn | 7.4% | +41% |
| Professional Visualization | $3.19 bn | 1.5% | +70% |
| Automotive & Robotics | $2.35 bn | 1.1% | +39% |
| OEM & Other | $0.62 bn | 0.3% | n/m |
| Total | $215.94 bn | 100% | +65% |
Data Center is the business. It sells Hopper (H100/H200), Blackwell (B200/B300) and soon Rubin (R200) GPUs, along with Grace ARM CPUs, BlueField DPUs, ConnectX NICs, NVLink switches, Spectrum-X Ethernet, InfiniBand and full rack-scale systems (DGX, HGX, GB200 NVL72, GB300 NVL144). Customers are cloud hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle, Meta), sovereign AI programmes (Germany's SOOFI, various Middle East buildouts, UK projects), enterprise AI factories, and neocloud GPU providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius.
Gaming is the consumer GeForce business. The RTX 50 series (Blackwell-based) launched during FY2026 and is now the mainstream SKU. Gaming revenue fell 13% sequentially in Q4 FY2026 to $3.73 billion on post-holiday normalisation, but remained up 47% year-on-year.
Professional Visualization covers workstation-class RTX cards and Omniverse software for design, simulation and digital-twin workloads. The segment grew 70% in FY2026 off a small base as Omniverse shipped into industrial and robotics customers.
Automotive & Robotics sells DRIVE platforms (Thor, Orin) and Jetson edge modules. Still tiny relative to Data Center at 1.1% of revenue, but growing 39% YoY and carrying strategic weight as physical AI (robotics, autonomous vehicles) matures.
Geographic mix (most recent 10-K): United States is the largest end-customer region at roughly 50% of revenue, followed by Singapore (a shipping hub, not end demand), Taiwan, China, and "Other." Nvidia discloses that China revenue has fallen as a share of the total as export controls have tightened.
4. The Business Model
Nvidia sells silicon, systems and software, but its real product is a platform. The moat has four pillars:
- CUDA. Two decades of developer ecosystem lock-in. Every major AI framework (PyTorch, TensorFlow, JAX, vLLM, TensorRT-LLM) targets CUDA first.
- Networking. NVLink, NVLink Switch, NVLink Fusion, InfiniBand (via the Mellanox acquisition) and Spectrum-X. The Rubin-era NVL144 and VR200 NVL576 rack systems depend on this stack.
- Systems scale. GB200 NVL72 and successor racks are sold as pre-integrated 120 kW+ systems with liquid cooling, power distribution and management software.
- Software. NIMs, AI Enterprise, Omniverse, NeMo, cuOpt, cuLitho — increasingly billed as subscriptions or baked into hardware SKUs.
Margins (Q4 FY2026): GAAP gross margin ~75.0%, non-GAAP gross margin ~75.2%. Operating margin runs in the mid-60s on a non-GAAP basis. Full-year FY2026 GAAP diluted EPS was $4.90 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $4.77.
Asset intensity: Asset-light by design — Nvidia does not own wafer fabs. However, the company is increasingly funding the capital cycle of its customers and supply chain: prepayments to TSMC, HBM suppliers (SK hynix, Micron, Samsung), equity investments in OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Marvell. This is a meaningful change in capital allocation and a stated risk factor.
Supply chain dependencies: TSMC for leading-edge wafers (critical); SK hynix for HBM (critical); CoWoS advanced packaging capacity at TSMC (a historical bottleneck); ASML for EUV indirectly; plus memory, optics and networking silicon partners.
Subsidy and regulatory credit dependency: Unlike Tesla or certain renewables names, Nvidia has no material direct revenue from government subsidies or regulatory credits. U.S. CHIPS Act funding primarily benefits fabs (Intel, TSMC, Samsung) rather than fabless designers. Nvidia's government exposure is the opposite of a subsidy — it is regulatory restriction risk via U.S. export controls on China (detailed in Section 10).
5. Financial Health
Five-year revenue trend
| Fiscal year | Revenue | YoY growth |
|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $26.9 bn | +61% |
| FY2023 | $27.0 bn | ~flat |
| FY2024 | $60.9 bn | +126% |
| FY2025 | $130.5 bn | +114% |
| FY2026 | $215.9 bn | +65% |
FY2026 quarterly revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | Data Center |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 (Apr 2025) | $44.1 bn | +69% | $39.1 bn |
| Q2 FY26 (Jul 2025) | ~$46.7 bn | +56% | ~$41.1 bn |
| Q3 FY26 (Oct 2025) | ~$57.0 bn | +62% | ~$51.2 bn |
| Q4 FY26 (Jan 2026) | $68.1 bn | +73% | $62.3 bn |
Cash, debt and capital return
| Cash & equivalents (end FY26) | ~$10.6 bn |
| Total debt | ~$11.4 bn |
| Interest coverage | ~503x |
| Free cash flow FY2026 | $96.7 bn (+59% YoY) |
| Share buybacks FY2026 | ~$40.6 bn |
| Dividends paid FY2026 | ~$974 m (quarterly $0.01/share) |
| Shares outstanding | ~24.3 bn (post-10-for-1 split June 2024) |
Nvidia is not burning cash — it prints it. FCF of $96.7 billion in FY2026 comfortably funded $40.6 billion of buybacks plus equity investments in OpenAI (up to $100 bn committed progressively), Anthropic (up to $10 bn), Marvell ($2 bn), Nebius, CoreWeave and others. Management has publicly stated a policy of returning at least 50% of FCF via buybacks and dividends. Capex in FY2026 was modest by hyperscaler standards because Nvidia does not own fabs, but supply-chain prepayments and strategic investments are material.
Dilution vs buybacks: Stock-based compensation is significant ($5–6 bn run-rate) but buybacks are an order of magnitude larger, so share count is trending down.
6. Valuation & Market Data
All metrics as of market close Friday 17 April 2026 unless noted. Quote data moves daily.
| Last close | $201.68 (17 Apr 2026) |
| Market cap | ~$4.89 trillion (18 Apr 2026) |
| 52-week high | $212.19 (29 Oct 2025) |
| 52-week low | $95.04 (21 Apr 2025) |
| % from 52-week high | -4.9% |
| % from 52-week low | +112% |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~41.2 |
| Forward P/E | ~24.2 |
| Price / sales (trailing) | ~22.6 |
| EV / EBITDA (trailing) | ~36 |
| Price / FCF | ~50 |
| Short interest | ~280.9 m shares (~1.16% of float, late March 2026 report) |
| Days to cover | ~1.3 days (short-interest / avg vol) |
| Dividend yield | ~0.02% (quarterly $0.01) |
| Beta (5Y) | ~2.1 |
Short interest remains low at ~1.2% of float — this is not a heavily shorted name. Options open interest is concentrated around at-the-money strikes in the near monthlies and at the $250 and $300 strikes in LEAPS, reflecting heavy retail and institutional call interest rather than an obvious put hedge.
For a live view of NVDA alongside macro markets see Live Charts.
7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?
Product roadmap disclosed by Nvidia
- Blackwell Ultra (B300 / GB300) — in volume production through 2026. NVL144 rack systems delivering ~1.1 EFLOPS FP4 dense compute.
- Rubin (R200) — first silicon shipping Q2 2026, partner systems ramping in H2 2026. First Nvidia part to pair HBM4 memory with NVLink 6. Rubin NVL144 targets ~3.6 EFLOPS FP4 — roughly 3.3x Blackwell Ultra.
- Rubin CPX — announced at GTC 2026 as a dedicated GPU class for massive-context inference.
- Vera Rubin (VR200 / NVL576) — Q2 2027 target. Approximately 500 billion transistors, 384 GB HBM4E per GPU, 32 TB/s memory bandwidth.
- Feynman — added to the public roadmap at GTC 2026, positioned after Rubin Ultra.
- Ising — announced April 2026, the first open-source quantum-AI model family aimed at quantum-processor researchers (a strategic hedge into quantum computing).
Guidance direct from management
CFO Colette Kress on the Q4 FY2026 call (25 Feb 2026) guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to $78 billion ±2%, non-GAAP gross margin ~75.0%, non-GAAP operating expenses ~$5.6 bn. CEO Jensen Huang has stated publicly that Nvidia has approximately $1 trillion of GPU orders visible through calendar 2027.
AI infrastructure and joint ventures
- OpenAI partnership (Sep 2025): up to $100 bn progressive investment into OpenAI, with at least 10 GW of Nvidia systems committed to OpenAI's fleet. First gigawatt on Vera Rubin in H2 2026.
- Microsoft + Anthropic (Nov 2025): Nvidia committed up to $10 bn in Anthropic; Microsoft up to $5 bn. Anthropic to buy $30 bn of Azure compute and deploy Claude on Nvidia-powered Azure instances.
- Stargate: Nvidia is a named partner alongside Oracle and OpenAI in the $500 bn, four-year U.S. AI infrastructure commitment. OpenAI paused the UK leg of Stargate in April 2026 over regulatory and energy-cost concerns.
- Marvell $2 bn investment (31 Mar 2026): preferred-stock investment plus an NVLink Fusion partnership to connect Marvell custom XPUs into Nvidia-defined fabric. Announced with Nvidia supplying Vera CPU, ConnectX, BlueField, NVLink and Spectrum-X; Marvell providing custom XPUs and silicon photonics.
- Palantir, Nebius, Deutsche Telekom, SOOFI: sovereign-AI and regulated-sector deployments announced at GTC 2026 (March 2026, San Jose).
- AI Grid reference design: AT&T, T-Mobile, Comcast and Spectrum announced as launch partners for distributed-inference telco deployments.
R&D and IP
Nvidia reported R&D spend of roughly $20–25 bn run-rate in FY2026, concentrated on GPU architecture, networking silicon, silicon photonics, AI software (NIMs, Omniverse, NeMo) and physical AI / robotics. Patent filings in 2025–26 have focused heavily on CoWoS-style advanced packaging, optical interconnects, on-die memory hierarchies and model-compression techniques.
8. Competitive Landscape
Direct competitors — AI accelerators
| Competitor | Product / status | Position |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | MI350 (shipping, ~$25k list), MI400 on CDNA 5 with 432 GB HBM4 | Projected ~30% of data centre GPU market by end-2026; data centre GPU revenue projected $15 bn |
| Intel | Retired standalone Gaudi line late 2025; pivoting to "Jaguar Shores" rack-scale CPU+AI integration | Effectively out of the standalone accelerator race |
| TPU v7 for internal workloads, plus third-party sales to Anthropic from 2027 | Dominant in its own cloud; encroaching externally | |
| Amazon (AWS) | Trainium 3, Inferentia 3 | Used heavily for AWS internal workloads |
| Broadcom | Custom XPU partnerships — reported $10 bn OpenAI deal (Sep 2025), plus Meta and Alphabet relationships | The fastest-growing custom-silicon threat |
| Huawei / Chinese designers | Ascend 910C and successors | Filling the China vacuum created by H20 export controls |
| Cerebras, Groq, Tenstorrent, SambaNova | Specialist inference / wafer-scale | Small but technically credible niches |
Nvidia market share: Nvidia retains approximately 80% of the AI accelerator market by revenue. AMD has grown to ~12% and is projected to approach 30% by end-2026 on the MI350/MI400 ramp. Custom silicon (TPU, Trainium, Broadcom XPUs) is not fully captured in those numbers because much of it is produced for internal use.
Market growth: The data centre AI accelerator TAM has expanded from roughly $45 bn in 2023 to an estimated $400 bn+ in 2026, with multi-year forecasts pointing to $1 trillion+ by 2030 if current hyperscaler capex trajectories hold.
Gaming GPU: Still a duopoly with AMD (Radeon RX 9000 series) and a credible third challenger in Intel's Arc (Battlemage / Xe3 Celestial roadmap). Nvidia retains the large majority of discrete GPU share but faces renewed competition at the sub-$500 tier.
Policy impact analysis: U.S.–China export controls
This is the one area where a policy change has produced measurable competitive damage. The April 2025 tightening of H20 export licensing cost Nvidia a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q1 FY2026, $2.5 billion of un-shipped Q1 revenue, and roughly $8 billion of lost FY2026 revenue in total. During the same window, Chinese AI accelerator designers — primarily Huawei's Ascend line — moved to fill the gap. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress stated on the February 2026 call that Nvidia was "concerned that local AI rivals could take over" the Chinese market even after partial policy relaxation under the Trump administration in mid-2025. AMD's MI-series China exposure is smaller in absolute terms, so proportionally AMD and Broadcom have been less affected by the restrictions than Nvidia.
9. Leadership and Ownership
Executive team
- Jensen Huang — co-founder, President and CEO since 1993. Arguably the most important individual in the AI supply chain. Holds ~3.5% of Nvidia shares outstanding.
- Colette Kress — EVP and CFO since 2013. Ex-Cisco, Microsoft, Texas Instruments. A billionaire after the run-up.
- Jay Puri — EVP, Worldwide Field Operations.
- Debora Shoquist — EVP, Operations.
- Tim Teter — EVP, General Counsel.
- Ajay Puri, Chris Malachowsky — co-founders, Malachowsky an NVIDIA Fellow.
Ownership structure
| Institutional | ~68% |
| Insiders | ~4.0% |
| Retail | ~28% |
Top institutional holders (most recent 13F, Dec 2025)
| Holder | Shares | % of S/O |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | ~2.27 bn | ~9.3% |
| BlackRock | ~1.94 bn (plus affiliated funds) | ~8.0% |
| State Street | ~0.99 bn | ~4.0% |
| Fidelity (FMR) | ~0.97 bn | ~4.0% |
| Geode Capital | ~0.59 bn | ~2.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | ~0.46 bn | ~1.9% |
| Norges Bank | ~0.33 bn | ~1.4% |
Insider transactions (last 12 months)
All Nvidia insider sales below are executed under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plans unless otherwise noted. There have been zero reported open-market insider purchases in the last 18 months (15-to-0 sell-to-buy ratio among filing insiders).
| Insider | Role | Period | Activity | Value | Plan type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen Huang | CEO | Jun 2024 – Mar 2026 | Multiple tranches totalling ~$2.9 bn (cumulative) | ~$2.9 bn | 10b5-1 (May 2025 plan authorises up to 6 m shares) |
| Colette Kress | CFO | Jul 2025 | ~27,650 shares @ ~$171 | ~$4.7 m | 10b5-1 |
| Colette Kress | CFO | Jul 2025 | ~47,000 shares (two automatic transactions) | ~$8.0 m | 10b5-1 |
| Colette Kress | CFO | 2025 rolling total | Cumulative dispositions ~$28 m | ~$28 m | 10b5-1 |
| Other executives / directors | Various | Dec 2025 – Mar 2026 | SEC Form 4 disclosures | ~$450 m combined | Primarily 10b5-1 |
Reading the data: The volume of selling is large in dollar terms but small as a percentage of holdings, and virtually all of it is pre-planned. 10b5-1 sales are routine and should not be read as a directional signal. What is notable is the complete absence of any discretionary open-market buying by insiders over the past 18 months.
10. Risks and Challenges
- China / export-control risk: $8 bn of FY2026 H20 revenue was lost; Nvidia discloses ongoing licensing uncertainty. Further tightening (or retaliatory Chinese action — a reported MOFCOM probe, customs frictions) would compound the damage. Huang has publicly pushed back hard against export restrictions including at industry podcasts in April 2026.
- DOJ antitrust probe: The U.S. Department of Justice has issued subpoenas to Nvidia and customers, investigating alleged CUDA bundling and preferential chip allocation. A forced unbundling remedy would directly attack the stickiest part of the moat.
- Customer concentration: Hyperscalers account for "just over 50%" of data centre revenue (Kress, Q4 FY26 call). Those same customers are the largest funders of competing custom silicon.
- Custom silicon displacement: Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, and the Broadcom-designed XPUs used by OpenAI and Meta are real. Anthropic has publicly committed to Broadcom/Alphabet TPUs from 2027. The open question is whether Nvidia keeps the training workloads and cedes parts of inference, or loses share in both.
- Capital-intensity of the AI buildout: Nvidia is progressively investing up to $100 bn in OpenAI, up to $10 bn in Anthropic, $2 bn in Marvell, plus Nebius, CoreWeave and others. This is effectively vendor financing of customers. If AI ROI for those customers disappoints, Nvidia is exposed both on the equity stake and on follow-on orders.
- Execution / yield risk: Blackwell had well-documented early yield problems. Rubin relies on HBM4, CoWoS-L advanced packaging and NVLink 6 — any slippage would show up fast given the ~$78 bn quarterly revenue run rate.
- Key-person risk: Jensen Huang is uniquely associated with the brand, customer relationships, roadmap credibility and capital allocation. No obvious named successor.
- Valuation at a ~$4.9 trillion market cap: The forward P/E of ~24x is not demanding if growth continues, but every turn of the multiple at this size is worth ~$200 bn in market value.
- Geopolitical / supply-chain: TSMC Taiwan concentration, HBM memory concentration (SK hynix, Samsung, Micron), CoWoS packaging bottlenecks.
- Litigation & shareholder suits: various crypto-era disclosure lawsuits have been in and out of courts; any adverse antitrust finding would likely attract follow-on class actions.
11. Recent Developments
Last 48 hours
- 17–19 April 2026: NVDA traded around $201–202, capping a ten-session rally of approximately +18% that ran from early April. Year-to-date the stock is still down marginally after a difficult March.
- NAB Show 2026 (Las Vegas, 18–22 April): Nvidia using the broadcast trade show to launch a wave of RTX-accelerated updates across top video editing and post-production applications.
- Jensen Huang on X / in podcasts (15–17 April): Huang stated on X and in a Dwarkesh Patel podcast that "you won't lose your job to AI, but you might lose it to someone who uses AI" and defended Nvidia's right to sell chips to China. Huang also publicly conceded that Nvidia missed early investments in OpenAI and Anthropic and said "I won't make that same mistake again."
Last 6 months
- 14 April 2026: Nvidia on a 10-day winning streak, up 18%, the longest such run since 2023.
- April 2026: Nvidia launched Ising, the first open-source quantum-AI model family, positioning the company for future quantum–classical hybrid workloads.
- 9 April 2026: OpenAI paused the UK arm of Stargate over regulatory and energy-price concerns. Nvidia is a named partner in Stargate; the pause does not affect U.S. deployments.
- 31 March 2026: Nvidia announced a $2 billion preferred-stock investment in Marvell Technology alongside an NVLink Fusion partnership. Marvell shares rose ~13% on the day.
- March 2026 (GTC 2026, San Jose): Huang keynote revealed the Rubin CPX inference GPU, the Feynman post-Rubin-Ultra entry on the roadmap, the AI Grid telco reference design, multi-billion Nebius partnership, sovereign-AI architecture with Palantir, and over 1 million NVIDIA GPUs deployed through NVIDIA Cloud Partners representing 1.7 GW of AI capacity.
- 25 February 2026 (Q4 FY26 earnings): Revenue $68.1 bn (+73% YoY), GAAP EPS $1.76, Data Center $62.3 bn (+75% YoY). Q1 FY27 guidance $78 bn ±2%.
- November 2025: Microsoft/Nvidia/Anthropic tri-party announcement — Nvidia to invest up to $10 bn in Anthropic, Anthropic committing $30 bn of Azure compute.
- October 2025: NVDA hit a 52-week high of $212.19 on 29 October.
- September 2025: OpenAI–Nvidia strategic partnership for 10 GW of Nvidia systems and up to $100 bn progressive investment.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
- 20 May 2026 (Wednesday, after market close): Q1 FY2027 earnings. Management has guided $78 bn (±2%) revenue.
- Q2 2026: First Rubin (R200) silicon shipments to select partners.
- H2 2026: Commercial availability of Rubin-based partner systems; first gigawatt of OpenAI Vera Rubin deployment.
- September 2026: Expected Q2 FY2027 earnings.
- GTC 2027: Next major product disclosure window.
- Q2 2027: Vera Rubin (VR200) shipping target.
- Quarterly dividend: Next declaration expected alongside Q1 FY2027 earnings; quarterly run rate $0.01/share.
- Regulatory: DOJ antitrust proceedings and periodic U.S. export-control reviews have no fixed public calendar but are live catalysts.
Track upcoming macro and earnings dates via the ChartsView Economic Calendar. Discuss NVDA with other traders on the ChartsView Forum.
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