ChartsView - Stock Trading Community

Last Updated: 21 April 2026

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) is the world's largest payroll and human capital management (HCM) software group. Founded in 1949 as Automatic Payrolls, the New Jersey-headquartered company processes pay for roughly one in six US workers, serves more than 1.1 million clients in 140+ countries, and holds, on any given day, a rolling float of client payroll and tax funds in the tens of billions of dollars. It operates through two reportable segments — Employer Services (payroll, HR outsourcing, talent, time & labour, retirement, insurance) and PEO Services (ADP TotalSource — co-employment professional employer organisation). The business mixes high-margin recurring SaaS, a durable cash-flow moat from holding client money, and a 50+ year record of consecutive dividend increases that earns ADP its Dividend Aristocrat status. This report covers every material angle — without analyst opinions or price targets. For live pricing see our live charts, upcoming releases on the economic calendar, and discussion on the ChartsView forum.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
CompanyAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
Ticker / ExchangeADP / Nasdaq Global Select
Sector (ChartsView)Technology — HR / Payroll SaaS (HCM)
GICS classificationIndustrials / Professional Services (Human Resource & Employment Services)
HeadquartersOne ADP Boulevard, Roseland, New Jersey 07068, USA
CEOMaria Black (since January 2023)
CFODon McGuire
President, Employer ServicesJoe DeSilva
Chair of the BoardJohn Jones (independent)
Founded1949 by Henry Taub
IPO / listingWent public 1961; NASDAQ listed
Employees~64,000 worldwide (FY25 10-K)
Clients~1.1 million worldwide
Workers paid~42m globally; pays ~1 in 6 US private-sector workers
PEO worksite employees~760,000 average paid (FY25)
Countries served140+
FY2025 revenue (yr to 30 Jun 2025)$20.5bn (+8% YoY reported, +7% organic constant FX)
FY2025 Adj. EBIT margin~25.8%
FY2025 diluted EPS (GAAP)$9.97
Average client funds held (FY25)$37.4bn
Market cap (mid-April 2026)~$120–125bn
Dividend$6.24 annualised ($1.56/qtr), 50+ years of consecutive increases
Websiteadp.com / investors.adp.com

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Distilled from the full report below — factual only, no ratings.

Bull Case

  • Category leader at scale: ~1.1m clients, ~42m workers paid globally, ~1-in-6 US private-sector workers, ~760k PEO worksite employees. No pure-play payroll peer is close on breadth.
  • Recurring revenue moat: Employer Services (~71% of FY25 revenue) is predominantly recurring SaaS with client retention that management reported at a record ~92.5% in FY25 — among the best in enterprise software.
  • Float kicker: ~$37bn average client funds held earns interest; FY25 interest on funds held for clients was $1.24bn at an average yield of 3.3%. Each 25bp rise in the portfolio yield is worth roughly $90–100m pre-tax to ADP annually once fully reinvested.
  • Dividend Aristocrat: 50+ consecutive years of dividend increases. November 2025 hike to $1.56/qtr ($6.24/yr) — a ~10% bump. Payout ratio <65%, supporting further increases.
  • AI optionality: ADP Assist (generative AI copilot across RUN, Workforce Now, Lyric HCM) rolling out; partnerships with Microsoft Copilot and Google Cloud; Roll by ADP for SMBs. ADP's 40+ years of anonymised payroll data is a unique training asset.
  • Capital return: ~$1.8bn of buybacks in FY25; share count down from ~440m a decade ago to ~405m today.

Bear Case

  • Labour market is slowing: ADP's own National Employment Report has shown soft or negative monthly private-payroll prints through early 2026. Pays-per-control growth (same-store employment at existing clients) has cooled to low single-digits from 2%+ in prior cycles.
  • Float income is peaking: Fed has begun cutting rates; management has flagged lower short-end reinvestment yields. Every 25bp cut in short rates trims client-fund interest growth.
  • ERTC tailwind is over: The Employee Retention Tax Credit processing boom rolled off in FY25; the resulting FY26 optical drag on Employer Services comparable revenue has been flagged by management.
  • Mid-market competition intensifying: Paycom, Paylocity, Workday, Rippling, and Gusto keep pressuring ADP's mid-market and SMB wallet share; Rippling crossed $1bn ARR in 2024 and continues to scale.
  • PEO growth muted: FY25 PEO revenue +5% YoY — decent but well below the double-digit compounding of the 2010s. Health-plan cost inflation is a continuing headwind.
  • Regulatory and cyber surface area: Handles SSNs, tax filings and bank data for tens of millions of workers — any breach would be material. IRS/DOL rule changes (tip reporting, overtime thresholds) require continuous platform investment.
  • Valuation premium: trailing P/E ~30x and EV/EBITDA ~18x leaves little room for growth disappointment.

3. What Does ADP Actually Do?

ADP sells payroll and human capital management software and services to employers. For a small restaurant it can be a simple phone-based payroll run; for a Fortune 500 company it can be a global HCM platform covering payroll, benefits, talent, time, learning, and compliance across dozens of countries. It also operates the largest US professional employer organisation (PEO), ADP TotalSource, in which ADP becomes the co-employer of record and delivers a bundled HR/benefits/workers' comp stack under its own master health plan.

Revenue composition (FY2025, year ended 30 June 2025):

SegmentFY25 revenue% of totalYoY growthSegment EBIT margin
Employer Services (ES)~$14.6bn~71%+7%~34%
PEO Services~$6.4bn~31%+5%~14%
Less: intersegment / client fund interest recl.~($0.5bn)(2%)n/mn/m
Total revenue$20.5bn100%+8%25.8% (group adj. EBIT)

Employer Services bundles: payroll processing (RUN for SMB, Workforce Now for mid-market, Vantage HCM and GlobalView for enterprise, the new cloud-native Lyric HCM for large/multi-country), HR outsourcing (ADP Comprehensive Services), talent acquisition, time & attendance, retirement services, and insurance services (largely a referral book for small-group workers' comp and health).

PEO Services (ADP TotalSource) is a co-employment offering — ADP becomes the employer of record for tax, benefits, and compliance purposes, pools the client's worksite employees into a large risk group, and delivers Fortune-500-grade benefits to small businesses. Roughly $6bn of PEO revenue includes pass-through benefits ("zero-margin benefits pass-throughs"); ADP also reports a "PEO revenue excluding pass-throughs" line at around $2.1–2.2bn where true margin lives.

Geography. ~85% of revenue is US-based; the rest comes from Canada, the UK, continental Europe, and a long tail of other markets. International is growing faster than US, driven by global payroll and Celergo (ADP's international payroll aggregator acquired in 2018).

4. The Business Model

How they make money. ADP earns revenue from three layers:

  1. Recurring SaaS / service fees: per-employee-per-month (PEPM) subscriptions plus per-payroll processing fees. Roughly 90%+ of Employer Services revenue is recurring.
  2. PEO fees: a service fee per worksite employee, plus a pass-through of benefits, workers' comp, and payroll taxes.
  3. Interest on client funds held ("the float"): ADP collects employer payroll + payroll tax funds a few days before they must be disbursed and invests that pool in a conservatively managed portfolio of US Treasuries, agencies, highly-rated corporates, and money-market instruments. In FY25 the average balance was $37.4bn; interest on funds held for clients was $1.24bn at an average yield of 3.3%. Management's "extended investment strategy" uses a laddered portfolio of 1 to 10-year maturities so realised yields lag spot rates — a tailwind when rates rise and a lagging headwind when rates fall.

Unit economics. FY25 revenue $20.5bn; adjusted EBIT $5.3bn (~25.8% margin); adjusted diluted EPS $9.80 (GAAP $9.97); free cash flow ~$4.1bn. Client retention hit a record ~92.5%. New business bookings (Employer Services) grew mid-single-digits.

Moat. (i) Scale in payroll tax compliance — ADP files in all 50 US states and 140+ countries; (ii) integration stickiness — once payroll is wired into a client's GL, bank, benefits carriers and 401(k) record-keeper, switching is painful; (iii) data scale — 40+ years of anonymised payroll micro-data (the input to the ADP Research Institute's monthly National Employment Report co-produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab); (iv) float — no SaaS competitor matches ADP's interest-income kicker because none hold comparable client-fund balances.

Regulatory / subsidy dependency. Minimal direct subsidy exposure. The most relevant indirect driver was the IRS Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC), which generated a pulse of one-time processing revenue through FY23–FY24. That tailwind has now rolled off.

5. Financial Health

USD $m (except per share)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue15,00516,49818,01319,20320,497
Revenue growth %+3%+10%+9%+7%+8%
Adj. EBIT3,4003,9254,6504,9005,290
Adj. EBIT margin22.7%23.8%25.8%25.5%25.8%
Net income (GAAP)2,5992,9483,4123,7504,030
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$6.03$7.00$8.21$9.13$9.97
Free cash flow2,9003,2003,5003,9004,100
Cash & ST investments (corporate)2,1001,5501,8002,2002,400
Long-term debt (corporate)1,0002,9782,9802,9802,980
Avg. client funds held28,50029,50033,00035,70037,400
Interest on client funds4254658161,0501,236
Client-fund avg yield1.5%1.6%2.5%2.9%3.3%
Shares o/s (diluted, m)431421415411404
Dividends per share$3.86$4.16$4.80$5.50$6.00

Sources: ADP 10-K filings FY21–FY25, supplementary investor materials. FY25 = year ended 30 June 2025. Dividend per share is calendar-year declared. Adj. EBIT excludes one-time items (transformation charges, gain on sale of CHSA/COBRA business in FY21).

Balance sheet. Corporate net debt is modest (roughly $0.5–0.6bn net, pre-client-fund obligations). Separately, ADP carries ~$30bn+ of "client fund obligations" on the liability side matched by "funds held for clients" on the asset side — these net to zero economically but inflate reported totals. Standard & Poor's rates ADP AA- with a stable outlook, one of only a handful of US corporates holding that grade.

Capital return (FY25). ~$1.8bn buybacks, ~$2.4bn dividends — total ~$4.2bn returned to shareholders, ~100% of FCF.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw figures only — no commentary on cheap / expensive.

MetricValueSource / Date
Share price~$300 (mid-April 2026 range)Exchange data, week of 21 Apr 2026
Market capitalisation~$121bnDerived at ~$300 × 404m shares
Enterprise value (corporate)~$121bn (cash + debt roughly offset)Derived
Trailing P/E (GAAP)~30xDerived vs FY25 $9.97 EPS
Trailing P/E (adj.)~30.5xDerived vs FY25 $9.80 adj. EPS
P/S (TTM)~5.9xDerived vs FY25 revenue $20.5bn
EV/EBITDA (TTM)~18xDerived vs ~$6.5bn EBITDA
Price / FCF~29xDerived vs $4.1bn FCF
52-week high~$335 (late 2025 / early 2026)Exchange data
52-week low~$255 (mid-2025)Exchange data
Shares outstanding (diluted)~404mQ2 FY26 10-Q
Dividend (annualised)$6.24Declared Nov 2025 — $1.56/qtr
Dividend yield~2.1%At ~$300
Payout ratio (FY25)~60%$6.00 DPS / $9.97 GAAP EPS
Consecutive years of dividend increases50+S&P Dividend Aristocrats index
Short interest (% of float)~1.5% (latest reported)Exchange short-interest reports
S&P credit ratingAA- / stableS&P Global Ratings
Moody's credit ratingAa3 / stableMoody's

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

ADP Assist (generative AI copilot). Announced at ADP's "Meeting of Minds" client conference in 2024, rolled out across RUN (SMB), Workforce Now (mid-market) and Lyric HCM (enterprise) through calendar 2025 and 2026. Use cases disclosed by management include natural-language payroll queries, compliance Q&A, anomaly detection on payrolls, and auto-drafted HR policies. ADP has stated that ADP Assist is grounded in its proprietary anonymised payroll dataset — a data moat not replicable by pure-play SaaS HCM rivals.

Lyric HCM. Next-generation, cloud-native, global HCM platform built on a single unified data model — designed to replace GlobalView (PeopleSoft-derived) and Vantage HCM over time. Lyric was generally available from 2024 and has been gradually winning new logo deployments through FY25/FY26.

Roll by ADP. Mobile-first, chat-based payroll app for micro-businesses (1–49 employees). Integrated with ADP Assist. Designed to compete with Square Payroll, Gusto, and QuickBooks Payroll.

Partnerships.

  • Microsoft Copilot — ADP is an official Copilot connector, allowing M365 users to query ADP payroll/HR data inside Copilot Chat.
  • Google Cloud — strategic partnership announced in 2024 covering generative AI model development on Vertex AI and data warehousing on BigQuery.
  • Workday, SAP SuccessFactors, Oracle HCM — ADP operates the "Payroll Connector" integrations that let these platforms outsource the payroll-tax-filing plumbing to ADP even when customers use a rival HCM front end. This "frenemy" strategy remains revenue-accretive.

M&A. ADP has pursued bolt-on acquisitions rather than transformational deals. Recent activity has focused on talent acquisition (WorkMarket), international payroll (Celergo), and wage-access (Wisely platform). No major announced transaction in FY26 to date.

ADP Research Institute. Continues to publish the monthly ADP National Employment Report (typically first Wednesday of each month, in partnership with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab), the Pay Insights wage tracker, and quarterly workplace research. This is a meaningful marketing and credibility asset — not material to revenue.

8. Competitive Landscape

CompanyTickerMarket cap (Apr 2026)TTM revenuePrimary overlap with ADP
PaychexPAYX~$50bn~$5.5bnDirect SMB payroll/PEO peer; strongest overlap with ADP RUN.
Paycom SoftwarePAYC~$12bn~$2.0bnMid-market HCM; "Beti" self-service payroll product.
PaylocityPCTY~$10bn~$1.8bnMid-market HCM; gained share vs ADP Workforce Now.
WorkdayWDAY~$65bn~$9bnEnterprise HCM; Workday Payroll vs ADP GlobalView/Lyric.
Oracle (HCM Cloud)ORCLMega-capLargeEnterprise HCM suite; often integrated to ADP for payroll-tax filing.
SAP (SuccessFactors)SAPMega-capLargeEnterprise HCM; ADP Celergo and GlobalView deliver payroll under SF.
RipplingPrivateLast round valued ~$16.8bn>$1bn ARRHR / IT / Finance "workforce platform" — fastest-growing threat in mid-market.
GustoPrivateLast round ~$9.6bn~$750mSMB payroll/benefits; strong with startups and agencies.
DeelPrivateLast round ~$12bn~$800mContractor & EOR; direct threat to ADP Celergo / GlobalView.
Remote.comPrivate~$3bnSmallerGlobal EOR; similar to Deel.
Intuit (QuickBooks Payroll)INTUMega-cap~$16bn groupSMB / micro payroll via QuickBooks ecosystem.
Square Payroll (Block)SQMid-capSmaller payroll sliceMicro-business payroll attached to Square POS.

Market structure. The US payroll/HCM software market is ~$30–35bn and growing mid-to-high-single-digits. ADP is the clear leader by revenue share (~30%), followed by Paychex (~12%), Paycom (~5%), Paylocity (~4%), with Workday dominant in enterprise HCM. Private disruptors (Rippling, Gusto, Deel) have collectively added ~$2.5–3bn of ARR in the last five years, largely from net-new demand rather than pure ADP displacement — but mid-market competitive intensity is the clearest pain point.

ADP strengths: scale, compliance coverage, PEO leadership, client retention, float income, data breadth, 50+ year dividend record, AA- credit rating.

ADP weaknesses: perceived legacy UX vs newer entrants, slower product cycle than Rippling/Paycom, limited appeal to tech-forward startups, mid-market share pressure.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Key executives.

  • Maria Black — President & CEO since 1 January 2023. 27-year ADP veteran; previously President of ADP Small Business Services and TotalSource. First female CEO in ADP's history.
  • Don McGuire — CFO since 2022. Previously CFO of Employer Services International.
  • Joe DeSilva — President, Employer Services.
  • Lohit Sarma — Chief Strategy & Product Officer; leads Lyric HCM roadmap.
  • Vipul Nagrath — Corporate CIO and CTO of Global Product & Technology.
  • John Jones — Independent Chair of the Board (since 2020).

Institutional ownership. ADP is broadly held. Largest institutional holders: Vanguard Group (~9%), BlackRock (~7%), State Street (~4%), Capital Group / American Funds (~3%), Wellington Management (~2%), JPMorgan Asset Management (~2%), T. Rowe Price (~2%), Geode Capital (~1.8%), Morgan Stanley (~1.6%), Northern Trust (~1.5%). Institutional ownership in aggregate ~83–85% of shares outstanding. Insiders own <1% in aggregate — typical for a 75-year-old Aristocrat that has compounded through broad index ownership rather than founder control.

Insider transactions — last 6 months (Form 4, publicly reported).

DateInsiderRoleActionSharesPrice rangeApprox value10b5-1?
Feb 2026Maria BlackCEOSell (option exercise & sell)~25,000~$305 avg~$7.6mYes — adopted 2024
Feb 2026Don McGuireCFOSell~10,000~$300 avg~$3.0mYes
Jan 2026Joe DeSilvaPresident, ESSell~6,000~$295 avg~$1.8mYes
Nov 2025Various directorsDirector RSU vest / sell-to-coverMixedSmallMarketSub-$500k eachAutomatic
Nov 2025Maria BlackCEOSell~15,000~$320 avg~$4.8mYes

Approximate values derived from publicly filed Form 4s. No material discretionary open-market buying by NEOs has been disclosed in the last 6 months. Form 4 activity is dominated by scheduled 10b5-1 disposals after option exercise — typical for ADP's compensation structure.

10. Risks and Challenges

Macro / labour cycle. ADP's revenue is geared to the number of people on its clients' payrolls. In a US recession, pays-per-control falls (same-store employment shrinks) and new logo wins slow. The ADP National Employment Report through Q1 2026 has shown private-sector hiring at low levels — a direct read on ADP's own pays-per-control volume. Management has guided to low-single-digit pays-per-control growth for FY26.

Fed rate cuts reduce float income. The extended investment portfolio earned an average 3.3% in FY25. If the short-end of the Treasury curve drops 100bps over 18 months, management has historically modelled roughly $80–130m of pre-tax interest-income pressure once reinvestment annualises — partially offset by client-fund balance growth.

ERTC wind-down. Employee Retention Tax Credit processing fees boosted Employer Services in FY22–FY24. That tailwind has fully rolled off — the comparable FY26 comp for ES is slightly flattered on the exit but there is no recurring benefit.

Competition in mid-market. Paycom's Beti self-service payroll, Paylocity's benefits suite, and Rippling's IT/HR bundle have all taken share in the 50–1,000 employee segment where ADP Workforce Now competes. Deel and Rippling specifically target ADP Celergo / GlobalView in international payroll.

PEO margin pressure. Medical inflation has been running high-single-digits; ADP TotalSource underwriting margins can compress if health costs outrun fee adjustments. FY25 PEO EBIT margin was ~14%, below the mid-teens long-term average.

Regulatory. Continuous IRS, SSA, DOL and state-level changes (secure retirement acts, tip-income reporting, non-compete restrictions, pay transparency laws, the Worker Classification rule, overtime threshold updates) are compliance cost drivers but also, for ADP, a moat — small operators struggle to keep up.

Cyber / data. ADP holds SSNs, bank account data and tax-ID data for tens of millions of workers and runs one of the largest ACH origination pipes in the US. A material breach would be potentially catastrophic. ADP has been running without a public material breach event but maintains significant cyber insurance and SOC operations.

Capital allocation. ADP has been disciplined — dividends plus buybacks ~100% of FCF, no megadeals. The risk is opposite: under-investment vs tech-forward peers if organic R&D lags.

Pension / labour costs. ADP has defined-benefit plan obligations (frozen to new participants since 2015) and a sizeable US workforce of ~40,000 employees — wage inflation feeds directly into cost of services.

11. Recent Developments

Last 48 hours (19–21 April 2026)

  • 21 April 2026 (today): ADP is in the run-up to reporting Q3 FY26 results, scheduled for Wednesday 30 April 2026 (pre-market). Investor relations has confirmed the date and webcast time. No 8-K releases material to the current report in the past 48 hours.
  • Week of 14–18 April 2026: ADP reiterated its FY26 outlook at a mid-quarter investor conference — revenue growth of 5–6% reported (6–7% ex-ERTC roll-off), adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 40–60bps, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 8–10%. Management confirmed client-funds-held interest growth is still positive YoY for FY26 despite the shift in the short end.
  • 2 April 2026: ADP National Employment Report (March 2026 reference month) printed soft — private-sector payrolls below Dow Jones consensus at the time of release — reinforcing the narrative of a cooling US labour market. The report is co-produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Last 6 months

  • April 2026 — Q3 FY26 earnings call scheduled for 30 April 2026. Key watch items: pays-per-control growth, PEO worksite employees, client funds held balance, extended investment portfolio yield, new bookings in Employer Services, ADP Assist adoption metrics.
  • 5 February 2026: Q2 FY26 (quarter to 31 Dec 2025) results — revenue grew mid-single-digits YoY reported, low-to-mid single digits organic; Employer Services new business bookings continued mid-single-digit growth; PEO revenue up 4–5%; interest on client funds +high-single-digits. Management raised FY26 guidance slightly on EPS.
  • November 2025: Board declared regular quarterly dividend of $1.56/share — a ~10% increase and the 51st consecutive annual rise. FY26 dividend annualised $6.24.
  • October 2025: Q1 FY26 results — revenue +6% YoY (~+5% organic ex-FX ex-ERTC), adj. EBIT margin expanded; management reiterated FY26 guidance.
  • September 2025: "Meeting of Minds" client conference — updates on ADP Assist product roadmap, Lyric HCM new-logo wins, and the Microsoft Copilot connector GA.
  • July 2025: Q4 FY25 / full-year FY25 results — revenue $20.5bn (+8% YoY), adj. EBIT $5.3bn (25.8% margin), adj. diluted EPS $9.80, GAAP diluted EPS $9.97. FY25 dividend $6.00/share. Client retention at a record ~92.5%. Avg. client funds held $37.4bn, interest $1.24bn at 3.3% yield.
  • FY26 guidance given at July 2025 investor day: revenue growth 5–6% reported (6–7% organic ex-ERTC), adj. EBIT margin +40–60bps, adj. diluted EPS growth 8–10%. Client funds held balance growth 3–5%, average yield roughly flat to slightly down.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

  • 30 April 2026 (before market open): Q3 FY26 earnings release and webcast — quarter ended 31 March 2026.
  • 7 May 2026 (first Wednesday of May): ADP National Employment Report for April 2026 — typically 8:15am ET.
  • Mid-May 2026: ADP 2026 Annual Meeting of Minds client conference (Las Vegas) — new product announcements expected.
  • Early June 2026: Next ex-dividend date for the quarterly $1.56/share dividend (pattern: ex-date early in the last month of each quarter).
  • Late July 2026: Q4 FY26 and full-year FY26 earnings — typically last week of July. FY27 guidance expected on the same call.
  • November 2026: Anticipated announcement of FY27 dividend increase — would mark the 52nd consecutive annual rise if confirmed.
  • First Wednesday of each month: ADP National Employment Report — the headline macro release that moves ADP and payroll-peer shares.

Read more stock research on the ChartsView blog, join the discussion in the forum, and view live price action on our live charts page. Keep an eye on the economic calendar for the monthly ADP National Employment Report and quarterly earnings window.

Disclaimer: This research is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. ChartsView does not publish analyst opinions, price targets or buy/sell/hold ratings. All figures are sourced from ADP's 10-K and 10-Q filings, investor releases and public disclosures as of 21 April 2026. Forward-looking statements reflect management guidance only. Do your own due diligence.