AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) — Company Research

Last Updated: 2026-05-12

AST SpaceMobile is building a low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellation designed to deliver cellular broadband — voice, text, data and video — directly to unmodified 2G/4G-LTE/5G smartphones, in partnership with mobile network operators (MNOs). The day this report is written, ASTS is trading at $70.80, down from a prior close of $82.55 after a wider-than-expected Q1 2026 loss disclosed on 2026-05-11. Revenue is still tiny relative to the company's $27.5bn market cap: FY2025 revenue was $70.9m against a net loss of $341.9m. The story is entirely about whether the company can manufacture, launch, license and operate enough Block 2 BlueBird satellites in 2026 to convert preliminary MNO partnerships into a paid commercial service.

1. Company Snapshot

| Field | Value | |---|---| | Company | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | | Ticker | ASTS (NASDAQ) | | Sector / Industry | Technology / Communication Equipment | | Market cap | $27.47bn | | Enterprise value | $25.20bn | | Revenue (FY2025) | $70.92m | | Employees | 1,126 | | CEO | Abel Avellan (founder & Chairman) | | Headquarters | Midland International Air & Space Port, Midland, Texas | | Website | https://ast-science.com | | Fiscal year-end | 31 December | | Currency | USD |

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): the workforce of approximately 1,126 full-time and part-time employees as of 2025-12-31 was split roughly 708 in the U.S. and 418 in other jurisdictions, primarily Scotland, Spain, India and Israel. The global operating footprint was approximately 450,000 square feet at year-end, with the principal Assembly, Integration and Test (AIT) facility in Texas.

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull case

• Definitive commercial agreements (not just MoUs) with AT&T and Verizon for the U.S., a ten-year agreement with Saudi Telecom Company (STC), and a European/UK reseller joint venture with Vodafone (SatCo) create a contracted route to a very large addressable subscriber base.
• Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): the partner ecosystem covers over 50 MNOs with nearly 3 billion subscribers globally, and AST owns IP/controls manufacturing for approximately 95% of Block 2 BlueBird sub-systems — supporting both a cost story and supply-chain resilience.
• A real, if early, revenue base appeared in FY2025: revenue jumped from $4.4m (FY2024) to $70.9m, driven by gateway/software sales to MNOs and U.S. government services contracts.
• Spectrum stack is broadening: Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): pending Ligado agreements (subject to regulatory approval) for up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band in the U.S. and Canada, plus the September 2025 EllioSat acquisition giving up to 60 MHz of global mid-band S-band ITU priority rights.
• Cash position is large in absolute terms ($2.34bn at FY2025 year-end) and was bolstered in February 2026 by $1,057.5m of net proceeds from new 2036 2.25% convertible notes; per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): management believes the company is "fully funded for our costs necessary to manufacture and launch a constellation of approximately 90 BB satellites."

Bear case

• ASTS has effectively no service revenue: FY2025 revenue of $70.9m produced an operating loss of $287.7m and a net loss of $341.9m, with free cash flow of -$1.19bn.
• Q1 2026 results released 2026-05-11 missed Wall Street expectations (revenue $14.73m vs ~$39m looked-for; loss $0.66/share vs ~$0.21/share looked-for), driving the stock down roughly 12-14% in the following session.
• Valuation is built on a service that has not commercially launched: trailing P/S of 387, EV/Revenue of 355, and an operating margin of -405.7% on FY2025 figures.
• Capital structure has expanded rapidly: total debt grew from $173m at end-2024 to $2.24bn at end-2025, mostly via stacked convertible note issuances (2032 4.25%, 2032 2.375%, 2036 2.00%, plus the February 2026 2036 2.25% issue) that carry future dilution risk.
• Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02): explicit risk factors include the possibility the SpaceMobile Service is not completed on time or at all, that further capital may be unavailable, that the Ligado transaction may not be consummated, and that the multi-class share structure concentrates voting power with founder/CEO Abel Avellan.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

ASTS is designing and operating a constellation of large phased-array LEO satellites — the "BlueBird" (BB) series — that beam cellular broadband directly to standard smartphones. The thesis: a user with an ordinary handset can stay connected to their existing MNO when terrestrial coverage drops away (rural, maritime, mountainous, disaster zones), without buying a new device or a separate satellite subscription.

Revenue today is the byproduct of building the network, not selling the service. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): FY2025 total revenue of $70.918m split into:

• Products revenue — $44.389m (≈62.6% of FY2025 revenue). Sales of gateway equipment and software to MNOs that are building out the ground infrastructure required to backhaul SpaceMobile traffic.
• Services revenue — $26.529m (≈37.4% of FY2025 revenue). Performance obligations completed under agreements with the U.S. Government either directly or via prime contractors, using the BlueWalker 3 test satellite and the Block 1 BlueBird satellites.

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): named government contracts include a Space Development Agency (SDA) program through a prime contractor with total expected revenue of $43.0m, a direct SDA "Europa Track 2" commercial-solutions agreement valued at approximately $30.0m, and an IDIQ award on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD (Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense) program.

The SpaceMobile Service itself has not yet launched commercially; per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): the company states explicitly that "The SpaceMobile Service has not been launched and therefore has not yet generated any revenue."

(Donut chart of FY2025 revenue mix — Products 62.6% / Services 37.4% — to be emitted in the published HTML version per chart_library.md Template 8.)

4. The Business Model

The intended end-state model is a wholesale, revenue-share arrangement with MNOs. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): "We generally seek to negotiate a revenue-sharing model in our agreements with MNOs" and the service is expected to be sold by MNOs to their own subscribers under several illustrative offerings — a "Day Pass" (ad-hoc roaming when leaving terrestrial coverage), monthly consumer and enterprise add-ons, a standalone "Get Connected" plan for areas with no terrestrial coverage, and aeronautical, maritime, military and government offerings.

Definitive commercial agreements signed to date, per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02), include:

• AT&T — continental U.S. (excluding Alaska) and Hawaii.
• Verizon — continental U.S. (excluding Alaska) and Hawaii, "starting in 2026" (announced 2025-10-08).
• Vodafone — via a jointly-owned European reseller (SatCo, agreement dated 2025-12-18) for Europe/UK/certain markets, plus a separate agreement for Vodafone end-users outside those markets.
• Saudi Telecom Company (STC) — a ten-year agreement entered 2025-10-29 covering Saudi Arabia and key regional markets.

Beyond these definitive agreements, ASTS has approximately 50 preliminary MNO understandings that have to be converted into binding deals before commercial service can be offered in those jurisdictions.

Cost structure today is dominated by R&D-style spending rather than service operations. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): FY2025 operating expense lines were:

| Line item | FY2025 ($m) | FY2024 ($m) | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Cost of revenues — products | 33.0 | 0.0 | — | | Cost of revenues — services | 2.2 | 0.0 | — | | Engineering services costs | 142.5 | 93.5 | +52% | | General & administrative | 101.7 | 61.6 | +65% | | Research & development | 28.1 | 28.8 | -2% | | Depreciation & amortization | 51.1 | 63.3 | -19% | | Total operating expenses | 358.6 | 247.2 | +45% |

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): engineering-services cost growth was driven by a $20.9m payroll increase (headcount and stock-based comp), $12.6m of additional consulting and professional services, $11.6m of third-party engineering and overhead and $3.1m of travel. G&A growth was attributable to a $15.1m increase in legal costs tied to the Ligado spectrum transaction, the EllioSat S-Band acquisition and the Vodafone JV, plus $10.3m more in consulting fees, $8.5m of incremental payroll/stock-based comp and $3.7m of facilities.

The "moat" claim rests on three pillars described per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02):

• Patent estate. Approximately 3,850 patent and patent-pending claims worldwide as of 2025-12-31, of which roughly 1,900 are granted or allowed; 38 patent families; 54 granted U.S. patents; 29 granted international patents in 17 countries.
• Custom phased array and ASIC. The Block 2 BlueBird carries an approximately 2,400-square-foot phased array — described as the largest commercial phased array ever deployed in LEO — and an in-house AST5000 ASIC chip designed for up to 120 Mbps peak per beam and 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth per satellite (FPGA chip in use until the ASIC is flight-deployed).
• Vertical integration. ASTS owns the IP and controls manufacturing (internally or via contract manufacturers) for approximately 95% of Block 2 BB sub-systems.

There is no dividend; the company has never paid one and JSON shows no buybacks. Capital allocation is, in effect, "raise it, spend it on satellites." Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): the average direct-materials-and-launch capital cost per Block 2 satellite is estimated at $21.0m to $23.0m for a constellation of over 90 satellites, with initial launches running higher and trending down.

There is no meaningful regulatory-credit, subsidy or tax-credit revenue stream in the business model — government revenue at ASTS comes from contract performance (SDA, MDA SHIELD) rather than subsidy.

5. Financial Health

Five-year trends

(All figures from the JSON source data unless flagged otherwise. FY2021 is largely blank because the SPAC business combination that created the current public company did not close until April 2021.)

| Metric ($m) | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue | 70.9 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 13.8 | n/d | | Gross profit | 35.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 7.1 | n/d | | Operating income | (287.7) | (242.8) | (222.4) | (145.8) | n/d | | Net income | (341.9) | (300.1) | (87.6) | (31.6) | n/d | | EPS (diluted) | -$1.34 | -$1.94 | -$1.07 | -$0.58 | n/d | | Operating cash flow | (71.5) | (126.1) | (148.9) | (156.5) | n/d | | CapEx | (1,121.1) | (174.1) | (118.8) | (57.3) | n/d | | Free cash flow | (1,192.7) | (300.3) | (267.7) | (213.7) | n/d | | Cash & equivalents | 2,335.7 | 565.0 | 85.6 | 238.6 | n/d | | Total debt | 2,239.5 | 173.0 | 72.9 | 12.8 | n/d | | Total equity | 1,841.5 | 479.1 | 99.0 | 133.5 | n/d | | Diluted shares (m) | 256.0 | 154.5 | 81.8 | 54.4 | n/d |

n/d = not disclosed in this report's source data.

A few observations the numbers force:

• FY2025 revenue is up roughly 15-fold versus FY2024, but more than 90% of operating spend still goes to engineering, G&A and depreciation rather than cost of revenue — the company is paying to build the constellation, not to serve customers.
• The total debt jump from $173m (end-2024) to $2.24bn (end-2025) reflects three convertible note issuances during 2025: $460m of 2032 4.25% notes in January (partly repurchased later in 2025 and again in February 2026, leaving ~$3.5m outstanding by spring 2026 per the MD&A), $575m of 2032 2.375% notes in July 2025 (with $250m repurchased in February 2026), and $1,150m of 2036 2.00% notes in October 2025. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): a further $1,075m of 2036 2.25% convertible notes was issued in February 2026 (net proceeds approximately $1,057.5m), after the FY2025 balance sheet date.
• The diluted share count rose from 154.5m (FY2024) to 256.0m (FY2025) — a 66% year-over-year increase — driven by ATM equity programs (2024 Sales Agreement issued 2.9m shares for $74.8m net; May 2025 Sales Agreement issued 13.6m shares for $488.7m net; October 2025 Sales Agreement issued 10.1m shares for $706.3m net) and by share-settled repurchases of convertible debt, per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02).

Recent quarterly trajectory

| Quarter | Revenue ($m) | Gross profit ($m) | Operating income ($m) | Net income ($m) | Diluted EPS | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 2025 (FQE 2025-12-31) | 54.305 | 24.892 | (72.277) | (73.966) | -$0.26 | | Q3 2025 (FQE 2025-09-30) | 14.739 | 9.228 | (79.676) | (122.874) | -$0.45 | | Q2 2025 (FQE 2025-06-30) | 1.156 | n/d | (72.797) | (99.394) | -$0.41 | | Q1 2025 (FQE 2025-03-31) | 0.718 | n/d | (62.963) | (45.706) | -$0.20 | | Q4 2024 (FQE 2024-12-31) | 1.918 | n/d | (58.724) | (35.857) | n/d |

Q4 2025 was the breakout revenue quarter, reflecting accelerating gateway equipment deliveries to MNOs and U.S. government services milestones. Q1 2026 results are not in the source data set as line items, but per AST SpaceMobile's Q1 2026 earnings reporting on 2026-05-11 (see Section 11), revenue was approximately $14.73m and the loss per share was approximately $0.66 — a wider miss than consensus had modelled.

Funding the build

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): contractual third-party commitments totalled approximately $489.1m as of 2025-12-31, primarily for R&D programs, operational services, capital improvements and BlueBird satellite components. Minimum launch commitments are approximately $250-325m. The company also entered a Master Equipment Financing Agreement with Trinity Capital in 2025 (commitment of up to $100m, $50.5m drawn across four schedules with monthly payments of approximately $1.1m and a 9% end-of-term payment). Pending the Ligado closing, SpectrumCo has a non-recourse senior-secured delayed-draw Sound Point Credit Facility of $550m (undrawn at 2025-12-31), and BackstopCo entered a $420m cash-collateralised UBS Bridge Financing Loan on 2025-10-31 to fund the first $420m staged payment of the Ligado-related $550m consideration that was paid out on 2025-10-31 for the benefit of Inmarsat.

6. Valuation & Market Data

(All figures as of 2026-05-12 from the source data, except 52-week range high/low dates which are not disclosed in this report's source data.)

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current price | $70.80 | | Previous close | $82.55 | | Day open / high / low | $73.45 / $79.87 / $70.385 | | Day's volume | 20,033,449 | | 10-day average volume | 18,891,560 | | 52-week high | $129.89 | | 52-week low | $22.47 | | Market cap | $27.47bn | | Enterprise value | $25.20bn | | Shares outstanding | 298,678,735 | | Float shares | 265,343,550 | | Trailing P/E (calc) | -52.84 (loss-making) | | Forward P/E (yfinance) | -261.78 (loss-making) | | Trailing P/S | 387.41 | | P/B | 14.92 | | EV / revenue | 355.41 | | EV / EBITDA proxy | -87.60 | | FCF yield | -4.34% | | Gross margin (FY2025) | 50.34% | | Operating margin (FY2025) | -405.70% | | Net margin (FY2025) | -482.16% | | ROE | -18.57% | | ROA | -6.82% | | Debt / equity | 1.22 | | Current ratio | 16.35 | | Beta | not disclosed in this report's source data | | Dividend yield | n/a (no dividend) | | Short interest, days-to-cover, put/call | not disclosed in this report's source data |

The dates of the 52-week high ($129.89) and low ($22.47), short interest figures, and option flow are not disclosed in this report's source data; readers wanting those should pull a live quote and the latest NASDAQ short-interest report.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

Satellites in orbit and in production

• BlueWalker 3 test satellite — launched 2022-09-10; used to validate the satellite-to-cellular architecture and complete initial two-way 5G voice calls.
• Block 1 BlueBirds (BB1-BB5) — five satellites launched 2024-09-12, all five used across MNO and U.S. government tests.
• Block 2 BlueBird BB6 — launched 2025-12-23 and successfully deployed on 2026-02-10. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): BB6 carries an approximately 2,400 sq ft phased array — described as the largest commercial phased array ever deployed in LEO and more than three times the Block 1 array.

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): assembled microns are complete for up to 28 BB satellites; satellites BB8 through BB29 are at various stages of production and integration. Manufacturing capacity has been scaled to a target run rate of up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month.

Launch campaign

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): the company plans to launch approximately 45 to 60 Block 2 BB satellites by the end of 2026, at a cadence of one launch approximately every one to two months on average. Coverage milestones described in Item 1:

• 25 satellites (5 Block 1 + 20 Block 2) — noncontinuous SpaceMobile Service in targeted markets.
• 45-60 satellites — continuous coverage across the U.S., Europe, Japan and other key markets.
• ~90 satellites — continuous coverage across all targeted geographies, the long-term goal.
• The total filed NGSO constellation is up to 248 satellites.

Spectrum stack

• Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): in August 2024 the FCC granted an initial license for five satellites in V-, S- and UHF bands; in August 2025 the FCC partially granted a modification application authorising 20 additional satellites and the use of frequencies licensed to Verizon, AT&T and FirstNet for Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS) in the continental U.S. and Hawaii. In January 2026 the FCC granted authority to operate BB7 at a lower altitude.
• Ligado L-band. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): definitive agreements signed 2025-03-22 give ASTS long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum in the U.S. and Canada, subject to regulatory approval. Consideration of $550m to Ligado is being paid in stages: $420m paid 2025-10-31 for the benefit of Inmarsat; $100m payable 2026-03-31; $30m at closing on receipt of regulatory approvals. SpectrumCo also has an $80m minimum annual L-band payment obligation, with the option to pay the excess in stock during the first three years; the company also pays Crown Castle for use of up to 5 MHz of 1670-1675 MHz spectrum.
• EllioSat S-band ITU rights. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): on 2025-09-25 ASTS acquired EllioSat Ltd. (parent of Sky and Space Global UK Ltd., which holds S-Band ITU priority rights at 1980-2010 MHz / 2170-2200 MHz) for total consideration of $64.5m (including $26.0m of stock at closing, $10.0m on each of the second and third anniversaries, $16.65m on successful in-service of a L/S satellite, and $1.85m on 90-day continuous operation). Once integrated, the company expects up to 60 MHz of additional mid-band satellite spectrum globally.

Strategic partners / cap-table investors

Per JSON holders data, several MNOs and Big Tech investors sit on the share register: Rakuten Group (10.39%), Vodafone Ventures (1.83%) and Alphabet (2.99%) are among the top ten holders. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): AT&T, Google and Vodafone provided $110m of 2034 convertible notes in January 2024 and Verizon provided $35m in May 2024; on 2025-01-22 ASTS exercised its option to require conversion, issuing 25,818,541 Class A shares.

8. Competitive Landscape

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): named competitors fall into two groups:

• Direct-to-device LEO challenger. SpaceX's Starlink, "developing satellite communications technology using LEO constellations to provide competitive services in the direct-to-device segment of the mobile satellite services industry."
• Existing mobile satellite service operators. Inmarsat Global Limited, Globalstar, Thuraya Telecommunications Co., Iridium Communications, and Skylo — generally offering lower-data-rate services (e.g. SOS messaging) and serving regional or vertical-specific markets.

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): ASTS argues differentiation on three axes — Cellular Broadband data rates rather than low-rate SOS, compatibility with unmodified 2G/4G-LTE/5G handsets, and operation in the same low-/mid-band spectrum already used by MNO partners. The 10-K also notes regional MSS operators (often geostationary) and very-small-aperture-terminal (VSAT) operators as indirect competitors, and acknowledges that as terrestrial operators continue to invest in underserved areas they may face increased indirect competition.

Public, like-for-like market-share percentages are not disclosed in this report's source data, so a competitor-share chart is not emitted. Useful market sizing from the same source: per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02): GSMA data cited by AST as of 2025-12-31 estimates approximately 5.8 billion mobile subscribers move in and out of coverage, approximately 3.4 billion people have no Cellular Broadband coverage, and approximately 300 million people have no connectivity at all.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Named officers (per JSON insider data)

• Abel A. Avellan — Chief Executive Officer (also founder and Chairman per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-02).
• Andrew M. Johnson — Chief Financial Officer.
• Scott Wisniewski — President.
• Shanti B. Gupta — Chief Operating Officer.
• Huiwen Yao — Chief Technology Officer.

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02): Risk Factors list a specific key-person dependency on Mr. Avellan, and note that the multi-class common stock structure concentrates voting power with him.

Top institutional holders (per JSON, as of dates shown)

| Holder | Shares | % held | Value ($m) | As-of | |---|---|---|---|---| | Rakuten Group, Inc. | 31,020,155 | 10.39% | 2,196.2 | 2025-12-31 | | BlackRock Inc. | 11,945,549 | 4.00% | 845.7 | 2025-12-31 | | Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 11,489,121 | 3.85% | 813.4 | 2026-03-31 | | Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 11,043,563 | 3.70% | 781.9 | 2026-03-31 | | Alphabet Inc. | 8,943,486 | 2.99% | 633.2 | 2026-03-31 | | Vodafone Ventures Ltd | 5,471,743 | 1.83% | 387.4 | 2025-12-31 | | Morgan Stanley | 4,661,551 | 1.56% | 330.0 | 2025-12-31 | | UBS Group AG | 4,543,334 | 1.52% | 321.7 | 2026-03-31 | | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 4,522,549 | 1.51% | 320.2 | 2025-12-31 | | State Street Corporation | 3,951,685 | 1.32% | 279.8 | 2025-12-31 |

Three things stand out from the holder list. First, Rakuten is by some margin the largest holder, at over 10% of shares outstanding. Second, two index/passive complexes (BlackRock and Vanguard combined) sit at around 11.6%. Third, two strategic MNO/tech partners (Alphabet and Vodafone Ventures) hold near 5% combined — reinforcing the partnership thesis.

Reported insider transactions (per JSON; transaction direction not explicitly tagged)

| Insider | Position | Shares | Value ($) | Date | |---|---|---|---|---| | Hiroshi Mikitani | Beneficial owner (>10% holder; Rakuten chairman/CEO) | 3,040,000 | 270,896,800 | 2026-04-15 | | Andrew M. Johnson | CFO | 100,000 | 0 | 2026-03-24 | | Abel A. Avellan | CEO | 184,375 | 0 | 2026-03-24 | | Shanti B. Gupta | COO | 54,687 | 0 | 2026-03-24 | | Scott Wisniewski | President | 123,437 | 0 | 2026-03-24 | | Huiwen Yao | CTO | 40,000 | 3,555,200 | 2026-03-23 | | Huiwen Yao | CTO | 40,000 | 2,564 | 2026-03-11 | | Keith R. Larson | Director | 625 | 50,000 | 2025-12-24 | | Keith R. Larson | Director | 715 | 50,064 | 2025-12-17 | | Keith R. Larson | Director | 675 | 49,079 | 2025-12-10 |

The buy/sell direction and the 10b5-1 vs discretionary tag for each line is not disclosed in this report's source data; the zero-dollar values for most named officers on 2026-03-24 are consistent with equity-award vestings (grant or vesting rather than open-market purchase), but the source data does not state this explicitly. The Mikitani 2026-04-15 transaction is a single reported line for 3,040,000 shares at a reported value of $270.9m, by a >10% beneficial owner; direction is again not disclosed in this report's source data and should be verified against the underlying Form 4 before drawing conclusions.

10. Risks and Challenges

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-02): the company's own risk summary calls out the following — paraphrased for length:

• Execution and timing. The SpaceMobile Service is in development and may not be completed on time, or at all, and at greater-than-expected cost.
• Capital. The company may not be able to raise additional funds on favourable terms, and ongoing expenses and capex will be significant. There is a specifically-flagged going-concern-style risk: if the company cannot raise capital when needed, the independent auditor or management may express substantial doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern in future financial statements.
• Losses. The company has a history of losses and may never become profitable.
• U.S. government contracts. Subject to early termination, audits, investigations, sanctions and penalties.
• MNO and regulatory dependency. Relies on MNOs and on regulatory approvals (FCC, ITU, foreign regulators) to access the spectrum required for Supplemental Coverage from Space.
• Key person. Specific dependency on Mr. Avellan, with retention of other key engineering/management personnel also flagged.
• Technology obsolescence and competition. Including from SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-device program and from terrestrial-network extension.
• Supply chain. Reliance on third parties for satellite components and launch services, with some sole-source dependencies.
• Operational risk. Launch failures, satellite failures in orbit, premature satellite end-of-life, space-debris collisions, cyberattacks.
• Ligado-specific. The Ligado transaction may not be consummated, may face ongoing litigation, may dilute shareholders further, and even if completed faces regulatory, technological and adoption risks. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): consideration is structured around staged payments of $550m, with a $520m Backstop Commitment refunding payments if regulatory approvals are not obtained — this materially reduces but does not eliminate the deal-fail risk.
• Dilution. Existing convertibles, penny warrants and future equity offerings can produce substantial further dilution. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02): 4,714,226 penny warrants were issued to Ligado on 2025-03-22 (exercise price $0.01/share, subject to a 12-month lock-up which was waived by ASTS in February 2026).
• Tax Receivable Agreement. Cash payments to TRA Holders in respect of certain tax benefits may be substantial.
• Governance. Multi-class common stock concentrates voting power with the founder/CEO; anti-takeover provisions may delay or prevent a change of control.

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7A, filed 2026-03-02): a hypothetical 25 basis-point decrease in interest rates earned on the $2.8bn cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash balance at 2025-12-31 would reduce annual interest income by approximately $6.2m. The major fixed-rate convertibles (2032 4.25%, 2032 2.375%, 2036 2.00%, 2036 2.25%) carry no income-statement interest-rate risk, but their fair values move with the underlying share price and market rates. The UBS Bridge Financing Loan ($420m, Term SOFR + 2.0%) is the principal floating-rate exposure.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first. All URLs below are copy-pasted from the source data set.

• 2026-05-12 — Q1 2026 results coverage (Investor's Business Daily). Q1 earnings missed estimates, but management said the company is "on track" to meet 2026 guidance. Source: https://www.investors.com/news/technology/asts-stock-ast-spacemobile-earnings-q12026/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

• 2026-05-12 — Stock movers note (Barron's). ASTS named among notable movers alongside Intel, Micron and others. Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-movers-9191624b?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

• 2026-05-12 — "ASTS Stock Drops 10% on Weak Sales. There Is a Silver Lining." (Barron's). Per the article summary, Wall Street had been looking for a per-share loss of $0.23 from sales of $39m. ASTS missed on both lines, but maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150m to $200m. Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/ast-spacemobile-earnings-stock-price-d0c5ed22?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

• 2026-05-12 — "ASTS Reports Wider-Than-Expected Q1 Loss Despite Revenue Expansion" (Zacks via Yahoo Finance). Higher operating costs offset revenue growth from gateway sales and U.S. government contracts. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asts-reports-wider-expected-q1-133800323.html

• 2026-05-12 — "ASTS Shares Drop After Wider-Than-Expected Quarterly Loss" (InvestorsHub). Shares fell more than 12% in premarket trading on the print, despite updates on upcoming satellite launches and recent regulatory approvals. Source: https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/28220/ast-spacemobile-asts-shares-drop-after-wider-than-expected-quarterly-loss

• 2026-05-12 — Q1 2026 earnings call highlights (GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance). Notes "robust revenue commitments and technological advancements, while navigating capital expenditures and competitive pressures." Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-inc-asts-q1-070805192.html

• 2026-05-11 — Q1 2026 earnings call highlights (MarketBeat). Management said it remains on track with 2026 deployment and revenue plans and continues to scale manufacturing, launch additional BlueBird satellites and move closer to commercial service activation in key markets. Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/ast-spacemobile-q1-earnings-call-highlights-2026-05-11/?utm_source=yahoofinance&utm_medium=yahoofinance

• 2026-05-11 — Q1 2026 earnings transcript (Motley Fool). Management framed the addressable market as "billions of people without cellular broadband" and described the company's IP/patent portfolio as the foundation of "the first and only global cellular broadband network in space." Source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/11/ast-spacemobile-asts-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/

• 2026-05-11 — Q1 2026 print summary (Zacks via Yahoo Finance). Earnings and revenue surprises of -191.13% and -61.46% respectively for the quarter ended March 2026. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-inc-asts-reports-220503758.html

• 2026-05-11 — Q1 2026 reaction note (Investing.com via Yahoo Finance). Shares tumbled approximately 12.5% in premarket; reported Q1 2026 loss of $0.66 per share vs analyst consensus loss of $0.21 per share, and revenue of approximately $14.73m for the period. Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-shares-drop-wider-214904059.html

Filings landscape from the source data:

• 10-Q filed 2026-05-11.
• 8-K filed 2026-05-11 (Q1 2026 results).
• DEF 14A (proxy) filed 2026-04-28.
• 8-K filed 2026-04-20.
• 10-K filed 2026-03-02.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

| Event | Date | Source | |---|---|---| | Next earnings (expected) | 2026-08-10 | JSON calendar | | Ex-dividend / dividend | none — ASTS does not pay a dividend | JSON calendar | | Annual meeting | Proxy filed 2026-04-28; meeting date not disclosed in this report's source data | JSON SEC filings | | Launch campaign milestone | Approximately 45-60 Block 2 BlueBird satellites planned by year-end 2026, cadence of one launch every 1-2 months on average | per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-02) | | FY2026 revenue guidance | $150m - $200m, maintained as of 2026-05-11/12 | recent_news (Barron's, 2026-05-12) | | Ligado-related milestone payment | $100m due to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat | 2026-03-31 (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7, filed 2026-03-02) | | Ligado closing | Closing of the Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction subject to regulatory approvals; date not disclosed in this report's source data | per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02) | | Sound Point Credit Facility availability ends | 2026-10-05 (extendable by 180 days for an additional 1% fee) | per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-02) |

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Sources and notes

• Headline price, valuation, financials, holders and recent news figures: JSON source data set (ASTS_20260512.json).
• Detailed segment splits, MD&A narrative, financing arrangements, risk factor summary, satellite/spectrum programme detail and market-risk disclosure: AST SpaceMobile FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-03-02, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780312/000178031226000006/asts-20251231.htm).

No analyst price targets, ratings or consensus opinions appear above by design; ASTS is currently a pre-commercial company whose valuation depends on a still-future commercial launch, and any forward-looking statements above are attributed to AST SpaceMobile or to the cited primary source. This is a research note, not investment advice. Verify all material figures against the underlying filings before making any decision.