AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS) — Company Research
Last Updated: 17 August 2026
AST SpaceMobile is attempting something no company has yet completed: a constellation of large low-earth-orbit satellites that connect directly to an ordinary, unmodified mobile phone, with no special handset and no dish. If it works at scale, the mobile networks that already own the spectrum and the customers get coverage everywhere their towers do not reach, and AST collects a share of the revenue. The company reached its first meaningful revenue in 2025 and has thirteen spacecraft in orbit as at August 2026. It is also burning capital at an extraordinary rate, has raised more than three billion dollars of convertible debt since January 2025, and wrote off an entire satellite in April 2026. This report sets out what has actually been filed and announced, without analyst opinions or price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | ASTS (Class A common stock) / NASDAQ |
| Headquarters | Midland, Texas, United States |
| Sector | Technology — satellite direct-to-device communications |
| CEO / Leadership | Abel Avellan (Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer); Scott Wisniewski, President; Andrew Johnson, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Legal Officer |
| Employees | 1,126 (as at 31 December 2025) |
| Fiscal year end | 31 December |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $70.9m, the company's first materially revenue-generating year (SEC Form 10-K, accession 0001780312-26-000006) |
| Revenue (trailing twelve months to 30 Jun 2026) | $115.3m |
| GAAP loss per share (FY2025) | $(1.34) |
| GAAP loss per share (Q2 2026) | $(0.77) |
| FY2026 revenue guidance | $150m–$200m, reaffirmed at the Q2 2026 results on 10 August 2026 |
| Revenue backlog | ~$1.30bn as disclosed at the Q2 2026 results |
| Market capitalisation | ~$27.6bn across all share classes (share price $70.98, close 14 August 2026; ~389.2m total shares). Class A alone is ~$21.3bn on 299.7m shares. |
| Cash position (30 Jun 2026) | $2,288m cash and equivalents, plus $435m restricted cash; long-term debt of $2,963m |
| Satellites in orbit | 13 spacecraft as at August 2026 |
The price action is available on our Live Charts page, and scheduled macro events are listed on the Economic Calendar.
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Spectrum and regulatory position is genuinely hard to replicate: The Federal Communications Commission granted Supplemental Coverage from Space commercial authorisation in April 2026 covering a network of up to 248 satellites, coordinated with AT&T and Verizon 700/800 MHz spectrum. Separately the Ligado framework agreement gives AST access to up to 45 MHz of L-band with more than eighty years of usage rights.
- Distribution is already contracted rather than hypothetical: The company reports more than sixty mobile network operator partners covering over three billion subscribers, with definitive commercial agreements including Verizon and a $175m prepayment received from stc Group in Saudi Arabia. AST does not have to acquire retail customers — its partners already own them.
- Revenue has started and the backlog is substantial: Revenue went from zero in 2023 to $70.9m in FY2025 and $115.3m on a trailing twelve-month basis, against a disclosed backlog of approximately $1.30bn. Government work is a real contributor, with more than $125m of new US Government awards in 2026 to date.
- Manufacturing capacity is built ahead of demand: More than 500,000 square feet of production space across four Texas facilities, with stated line capacity for more than ten satellites' worth of components per month, and satellites BB17 to BB46 in production or assembly.
Bear Case
- The capital requirement is enormous and recurring: Capital expenditure was $859m in the first half of 2026 alone and $1,065m in FY2025, against operating cash outflow of $145m in the half. Cash of $2,288m at 30 June 2026 does not cover two more years at that investing run-rate without further financing, and the company has already returned to the convertible market four times since January 2025.
- Dilution is continuous and the market has punished it: Long-term debt rose from $156m at the end of 2024 to $2,963m at 30 June 2026 across four convertible note series. The July 2026 $1.0bn issue alone knocked 13% to 17% off the share price in a day.
- Hardware risk is proven, not theoretical: BlueBird 7 was launched on 19 April 2026, left in too low an orbit by an underperforming upper stage, and subsequently de-orbited. The company booked a $125.9m loss on involuntary conversion against roughly $30m of insurance recovery.
- A far larger, better-funded competitor is already operating: SpaceX's Starlink Direct-to-Cell service is live with hundreds of satellites and a subscriber base reported in the millions, against AST's thirteen spacecraft and pre-commercial status. SpaceX also has its own launch capability, which AST must buy.
- The deployment schedule has already slipped: The target of roughly 45 satellites in orbit has moved from end-2026 towards early 2027 following the BlueBird 7 loss, and first-half 2026 revenue of $46.3m implies a very steep second-half ramp to reach even the bottom of the $150m–$200m full-year guidance range.
3. Business Segments
AST SpaceMobile does not report operating segments. It discloses revenue in two categories, shown below for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 with the FY2025 split alongside.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Products revenues | 77.5% of Q2 2026 revenue ($24.4m); 62.6% of FY2025 revenue ($44.4m) | Principally ground gateway equipment delivered to mobile network operator partners, who install it to connect the satellite network into their terrestrial core. Fifteen gateways were delivered across five continents during FY2025, with around fifty in various stages of completion, installation or planning as at Q2 2026. |
| Services revenues | 22.5% of Q2 2026 revenue ($7.1m); 37.4% of FY2025 revenue ($26.5m) | Engineering services and milestone-based United States Government contracts, including work for the Space Development Agency and the Missile Defense Agency. This is the category that will eventually carry recurring commercial airtime revenue once beta and commercial service scale. |
Neither category yet reflects the intended long-run model, which is a revenue share on airtime sold by mobile network operators to their own subscribers. That revenue does not meaningfully exist today.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Today, almost entirely by selling hardware and engineering time. Gateway equipment sales to partner operators and milestone payments on government contracts made up all of the $70.9m booked in FY2025 and all of the $115.3m booked in the trailing twelve months. The intended model is different: AST operates the satellites, the mobile network operator provides the spectrum and the customer relationship, and the two share the revenue from airtime that would otherwise never have been billed because the subscriber was out of terrestrial coverage. Because the partner already owns the customer, AST avoids retail acquisition cost entirely — but it also does not control pricing, and it only earns once service is continuous enough to sell.
Where the moat is supposed to come from. Three things, in descending order of durability. First, spectrum: the Ligado arrangement gives long-dated control of L-band capacity, and the April 2026 FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorisation is a specific regulatory permission that competitors must obtain separately. Second, the physics of the array — AST's satellites carry very large phased-array apertures precisely because connecting to a low-power handset with no dish requires enormous antenna gain, and building and unfolding that in orbit is genuinely difficult. Third, the proprietary ASIC, which the company states delivers up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite and roughly ten times the throughput of the Block 1 design.
What is not yet proven. The moat argument rests on the assumption that scarce spectrum and hard engineering translate into pricing power before a competitor with more capital gets there. Starlink Direct-to-Cell is already operating a service, and its parent controls the launch vehicles AST partly depends on. AST's advantage is bandwidth per satellite and MNO-spectrum integration; the competitive question is whether that advantage outlasts the funding requirement needed to realise it.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from AST SpaceMobile's SEC filings (Forms 10-K and 10-Q) as tagged in the company's own XBRL data. The company reports on a calendar year.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 12.4 | n/a — FY2020 not presented | $(0.37) | $(0.37) † | Nil | $5.0m |
| FY2022 | 13.8 | +11.4% | $(0.60) ‡ | $(0.60) † | Nil | $4.8m |
| FY2023 | 0.0 | -100.0% | $(1.07) | $(1.07) † | Nil | $59.3m |
| FY2024 | 4.4 | n/m — growth from a zero base | $(1.94) | $(1.94) † | Nil | $155.6m |
| FY2025 | 70.9 | +1,505.4% | $(1.34) | $(1.34) † | Nil | $2,207.6m |
† AST SpaceMobile does not publish an adjusted or non-GAAP earnings per share measure; the GAAP figure is repeated in that column. It discloses "adjusted operating expenses" instead, which was $119.1m in Q2 2026 excluding depreciation and amortisation of $20.7m and the $125.9m loss on involuntary conversion. ‡ FY2022 loss per share is derived as the net loss attributable to common stockholders of $31.6m divided by approximately 52.7m weighted-average Class A shares, the share count implied by the company's own nine-month 2022 disclosure of a $23.4m loss at $(0.45) per share. The company has never declared or paid a dividend.
An important discontinuity in the revenue series. The revenue reported for FY2021 and FY2022 is not comparable with later years. It came from NanoAvionics, a small-satellite manufacturer in which AST held a 51% interest. AST agreed to sell that stake to Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace on 2 July 2022 and completed the sale on 6 September 2022 for net proceeds of $26.6m, recognising a $24.5m gain. Revenue consequently fell to precisely zero in FY2023. The FY2024 and FY2025 figures are the first from the SpaceMobile business itself, and the five-year growth rate shown in the verdict below should be read with that break in mind.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) | 31.5 | $(0.77) † | $(0.77) |
| Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | 14.7 | $(0.66) † | $(0.66) |
| Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | 54.3 | $(0.26) † | $(0.26) |
| Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025) | 14.7 | $(0.45) † | $(0.45) |
| Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025) | 1.2 | $(0.41) † | $(0.41) |
| FY2025 total (Q1–Q4 2025) | 70.9 | $(1.34) † | $(1.34) |
The two 2026 quarters are shown first and are not included in the FY2025 total. Every loss per share above reconciles to the company's own XBRL tags: the FY2025 figure is a $341.9m loss attributable to common stockholders over 256.0m weighted-average shares, and the Q2 2026 figure is a $230.9m loss over 299.1m weighted-average shares. Note that the loss per share is calculated on Class A shares only, because the Up-C structure allocates a substantial portion of the total loss to non-controlling interests — in Q2 2026, $69.0m of the $299.9m total net loss.
Cash flow and balance sheet. In FY2025 the operating cash outflow was $71.5m against capital expenditure of $1,064.7m, with depreciation and amortisation of $51.1m. For the six months to 30 June 2026 the operating cash outflow was $145.2m and capital expenditure was $859.2m. On a trailing twelve-month basis, operating cash outflow was $144.7m, capital expenditure $1,493.3m, free cash flow $(1,638.0)m and depreciation and amortisation $66.7m. At 30 June 2026 the company held $2,288.3m of cash and equivalents plus $434.6m of restricted cash, against long-term debt of $2,963.4m and current debt of $8.5m. Long-term debt comprises four series of convertible senior notes: 4.25% due 2032, 2.375% due 2032, 1.625% due 2034 and 2.250% due 2036.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$27.6bn across all share classes (share price $70.98 at the close on 14 August 2026 × ~389.2m total shares). On Class A alone (299.7m shares) the figure is ~$21.3bn — several data providers quote only the Class A number, so the two are easy to confuse. |
| Enterprise value | ~$28.3bn (market cap $27.6bn + total debt $2,972m − cash and equivalents $2,288m per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Total debt is long-term debt of $2,963m plus current debt of $8m. The $435m of restricted cash, largely tied to the Ligado arrangement, has not been netted off. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | n/m — the company is loss-making. Trailing twelve-month GAAP loss per share is $(2.15), so no positive earnings multiple exists. |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — consensus forward earnings per share remains negative at approximately $(1.21), and the company has issued revenue guidance ($150m–$200m for FY2026) but no earnings guidance. |
| P/S (TTM) | ~239.6x (market cap $27.6bn / trailing twelve-month revenue $115.3m, derived as Q3 2025 $14.7m + Q4 2025 $54.3m + Q1 2026 $14.7m + Q2 2026 $31.5m) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | n/m — EBITDA is negative at approximately $(532.2)m. This is a trailing twelve-month operating loss of $(598.9)m, derived from revenue less total operating expenses as tagged in each quarterly filing, plus depreciation and amortisation of $66.7m from the cash flow statements. The operating loss includes the $125.9m non-cash loss on involuntary conversion booked in Q2 2026 for the BlueBird 7 satellite. |
| P/FCF | n/m — free cash flow is negative at approximately $(1,638.0)m (trailing twelve-month operating cash outflow of $144.7m less capital expenditure of $1,493.3m per the cash flow statements). The company is in a heavy build phase and consumes far more cash than it generates. |
| 52-week high | $133.86 |
| 52-week low | $36.08 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 19.09% (56.85m shares short against a float of ~266.9m, settlement date 31 July 2026; down from 64.72m shares in the prior period). AST SpaceMobile remains one of the most heavily shorted large-capitalisation names on Nasdaq. |
| Days to cover | 3.62 |
Four of the ten metrics above are not meaningful, and that is the single most important thing this table says. AST SpaceMobile cannot be valued on earnings, cash flow or EBITDA, because it has none of them. The only ratio with a denominator is price to sales at roughly 240 times, against revenue that is currently hardware and engineering fees rather than the recurring airtime revenue the business is being built to earn.
7. What Are They Building
The constellation. Thirteen spacecraft were in orbit as at August 2026: the BlueWalker 3 test article, five Block 1 BlueBirds launched together in September 2024, and seven Block 2 BlueBirds. BlueBird 6 reached orbit in February 2026; BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 launched in June 2026; and BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral on 5 August 2026. BlueBird 7 was lost on 19 April 2026. BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16 were described as ready to ship shortly as at the Q2 2026 results, with BlueBirds 17 to 46 in production or assembly. Ten launches are booked across SpaceX and Blue Origin at a targeted cadence of one every one to two months, working towards roughly 45 satellites in orbit.
The Block 2 satellite and the ASIC. Block 2 BlueBirds are built around a proprietary application-specific integrated circuit that the company states supports up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite — roughly ten times the throughput of Block 1, with up to a tenfold user-experience improvement through AI-enabled spectrum management. Manufacturing runs across more than 500,000 square feet in four Texas-area facilities, with a dedicated micron production line stated to have capacity for more than ten satellites' worth of components per month.
Spectrum. The strategy targets roughly 100 MHz of access in the United States and more than 60 MHz internationally on a market-by-market basis, combining spectrum shared from mobile network operator partners with spectrum AST controls directly. The Ligado framework agreement, finalised on 22 March 2025, covers up to 45 MHz of L-band — 40 MHz of mobile satellite service spectrum in the United States and Canada plus 5 MHz in the 1670–1675 MHz band — with usage rights running more than eighty years, for $350m upfront, a minimum of $80m a year, and an option for a further $200m in cash or convertible notes. A further $100m capital advance was made in the first half of 2026 on top of $420m advanced during FY2025.
Government and defence. AST holds a $30m prime contract on the Space Development Agency's HALO Europa Track 2 programme and a prime position on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD programme, with more than $125m of aggregate new United States Government awards in 2026 to the date of the Q2 results. It is also working with AT&T's FirstNet public-safety network under the FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorisation.
The path to service. Three thousand digital cells had been activated across the continental United States as at Q2 2026, with beta service targeted with strategic partners during 2026 ahead of scaled commercial usage. The Q2 2026 release also flagged a planned joint venture among the three largest United States mobile network operators intended to extend coverage nationwide, though no definitive agreement has been announced.
8. Competitive Landscape
Market capitalisations below were re-checked live on 14 August 2026 rather than carried over from earlier in the year, as satellite-sector valuations have moved sharply during 2026.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| EchoStar (SATS) | ~$30.1bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of ~$14.8bn. Sold spectrum licences to SpaceX in a transaction reported at approximately $19.6bn, taking part of the consideration as an equity stake in SpaceX, which makes it an indirect participant in the competing direct-to-cell network. |
| Viasat (VSAT) | ~$11.4bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of ~$4.63bn and EBITDA of ~$1.39bn. A profitable incumbent in satellite broadband, but serving terminals rather than unmodified handsets. |
| Globalstar (GSAT) | ~$10.7bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of ~$281m and EBITDA of ~$91m. Provides the satellite capacity behind Apple's emergency-messaging service, which is the closest existing analogue to direct-to-device but is narrowband messaging rather than broadband. |
| Iridium Communications (IRDM) | ~$5.3bn | Trailing twelve-month revenue of ~$884m, EBITDA of ~$423m and diluted EPS of $0.87. Operates a mature, cash-generative narrowband constellation — a useful illustration of what a completed low-earth-orbit network earns at steady state. |
| SpaceX (private, parent of Starlink) | Not listed — valued at approximately $800bn in a December 2025 secondary share sale | Starlink Direct-to-Cell is already in commercial operation with hundreds of satellites and a monthly active user base reported in the millions. Reported figures vary widely between secondary sources and should be treated with caution. SpaceX is simultaneously AST's principal launch supplier and its principal competitor. |
9. Insider Activity
Founder Abel Avellan remains Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and, through Class C common stock, controls roughly 71.6% of the voting power against an economic interest of approximately 20.8% — a gap that Class A holders should understand before reading anything else in this section. Scott Wisniewski is President and Andrew Johnson serves as both Chief Financial Officer and Chief Legal Officer. Christopher Turco was added as a Section 16 officer, Executive Vice President and Chief of Staff, on a Form 3 filed 14 July 2026.
Insider dealing during 2026 has been entirely on the sell side among executives, alongside substantial disposals by strategic holder Rakuten.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakuten entities (holder of more than 10%) | 15 Apr 2026 | Sale | 1,350,000 | $86.22 (weighted average) | ~$116.4m | Not stated in filing reviewed |
| Rakuten entities (holder of more than 10%) | 14 Apr 2026 | Sale | 1,690,000 | $91.42 (weighted average) | ~$154.5m | Not stated in filing reviewed |
| Huiwen Yao (Chief Technology Officer) | 5 Jun 2026 | Sale | 40,000 | $96.37 (implied) | $3,854,800 | Not stated in filing reviewed |
| Scott Wisniewski (President) | 27 May 2026 | Sale | 25,904 | $126.64 (weighted average) | ~$3.28m | Not stated in filing reviewed |
| Scott Wisniewski (President) | 17 Mar 2026 | Sale | 47,000 | $94.68 (implied) | ~$4.45m | Not stated in filing reviewed |
| Julio A. Torres (Director) | 2026 — exact date not stated in filing reviewed | Sale | 15,000 | $76.34 (weighted average) | ~$1.15m | Described as covering restricted stock unit tax liability |
The Rakuten disposals are the most significant entries here by value: Rakuten has been a strategic investor and Japanese network partner since the early stage of the business, and sold more than $270m of stock across two consecutive days in April 2026. None of the transactions reviewed was explicitly flagged as executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and no open-market purchases by officers or directors were found for 2026.
10. Key Risks
- Liquidity and funding runway: This is the dominant risk. Cash and equivalents of $2,288m at 30 June 2026 sit against investing outflows running at roughly $2bn a year once capital expenditure, Ligado advances and spectrum purchases are combined. Even allowing for the $1.0bn convertible issue priced in July 2026, the company has funded roughly one to one and a half years of the current build rate and will need to return to capital markets again before the constellation is complete. Management describes the balance sheet as fortified; the arithmetic of the cash flow statement describes a business that must keep raising money.
- Dilution and leverage: Long-term debt went from $155.6m at the end of FY2024 to $2,963.4m at 30 June 2026 across four convertible series. The February 2026 transaction equitised $296.5m of earlier notes, converting debt into shares directly. Capped calls mitigate but do not remove conversion dilution, and the market's reaction to the July 2026 issue — a 13% to 17% single-day fall — shows how sensitive the price is to each new raise.
- Launch and satellite loss: BlueBird 7 was a total loss on 19 April 2026 after an underperforming Blue Origin New Glenn upper stage left it in too low an orbit to raise itself. The $125.9m accounting charge against roughly $30m of insurance is a concrete measure of what a single failure costs, and dozens more launches are required.
- Execution against a slipping schedule: The roughly 45-satellite target has already moved from end-2026 towards early 2027. First-half 2026 revenue of $46.3m against full-year guidance of $150m–$200m requires second-half revenue two to three times the first half, and the company has missed consensus revenue in its most recent quarter.
- Competition from a better-capitalised incumbent: Starlink Direct-to-Cell is operating commercially at a scale AST has not reached, backed by a parent valued at roughly $800bn with its own launch fleet. AST buys launch capacity from that same competitor.
- Regulatory dependency across many jurisdictions: The April 2026 FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space grant covers the United States only. The Q2 2026 release explicitly notes that European, Canadian, Japanese and Saudi network integration remains subject to final regulatory approvals, each on its own timetable and none guaranteed.
- Governance concentration: The Up-C structure and Class C super-voting stock give the founder roughly 71.6% of votes on roughly 20.8% of the economics. Class A holders supply the great majority of the capital and hold a small minority of the control.
- Revenue quality and concentration: Current revenue is gateway hardware and government milestones, not recurring subscriber airtime. The Q4 2025 figure of $54.3m against $14.7m in each of the adjacent quarters shows how lumpy delivery-based revenue is, and makes any single quarter a poor guide to the underlying run-rate.
11. Recent Developments
- 16 Aug 2026 — Backlog and deployment race draw commentary. Secondary market commentary highlighted the approximately $1.30bn revenue backlog against an intensifying satellite deployment race in direct-to-device connectivity.
- 10 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results miss on revenue as losses widen. Revenue of $31.5m fell short of consensus of roughly $34.5m, and the net loss attributable to common stockholders widened to $230.9m, or $(0.77) per share, including a $125.9m loss on the BlueBird 7 write-off. Full-year revenue guidance of $150m–$200m was reaffirmed and backlog was given as approximately $1.30bn.
- 05 Aug 2026 — BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 reach orbit. A SpaceX Falcon 9 launched three Block 2 satellites from Cape Canaveral at 3:42am EDT, taking the constellation to thirteen spacecraft in orbit.
- 28 Jul 2026 — Launch date announced for BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13. The company confirmed the schedule for its next Falcon 9 mission.
- 20 Jul 2026 — $1.0bn convertible note offering closes, shares fall sharply. AST priced $1.0bn of 1.625% convertible senior notes due February 2034, plus a $150m initial purchaser option, at an initial conversion price of approximately $79.57 and an effective conversion price of $149.20 after the capped call. The shares fell 13% to 17% on the dilution.
- 11 May 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue of $14.7m and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $191.0m, or $(0.66) per share, with cash and restricted cash of approximately $3.5bn following the February raise.
- 22 Apr 2026 — FCC grants commercial Supplemental Coverage from Space authorisation. The approval covers a network of up to 248 satellites, coordinated with AT&T, Verizon and FirstNet 700/800 MHz spectrum.
- 19 Apr 2026 — BlueBird 7 lost after New Glenn upper-stage underperformance. The satellite was placed in too low an orbit to raise itself and was subsequently de-orbited, against approximately $30m of insurance cover.
- 02 Mar 2026 — FY2025 results and 10-K filed. Full-year revenue of $70.9m made 2025 the company's first materially revenue-generating year, with a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9m, or $(1.34) per share.
- Feb 2026 — $1.075bn convertible note offering. AST priced ten-year 2.250% convertible senior notes at an effective conversion price of $116.30, and concurrently equitised $250.0m of the 2.375% 2032 notes and $46.5m of the 4.250% 2032 notes.
Ongoing discussion of the direct-to-device sector continues on the ChartsView Forum.
12. Key Dates
- Expected Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results. No date has been formally announced; the company reported Q1 on 11 May 2026 and Q2 on 10 August 2026, and third-party earnings calendars estimate a window of 9 to 13 November 2026.
- Expected 2026 — Launch of BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16, described as ready to ship shortly as at 10 August 2026. No launch date has been published.
- Expected early 2027 — Target of approximately 45 satellites in orbit, revised from an earlier end-2026 goal following the loss of BlueBird 7.
- TBC — Beta service with strategic mobile network operator partners, targeted during 2026 without a published start date.
- TBC — Final regulatory approvals for network integration in Europe, Canada, Japan and Saudi Arabia, each on a separate national timetable.
- 01 Feb 2034 — Maturity of the 1.625% convertible senior notes issued in July 2026. The 4.250% and 2.375% series mature in 2032 and the 2.250% series in 2036.
The Ligado framework agreement carries a minimum payment obligation of $80m a year, and further capital advances have been made in each of FY2025 and the first half of FY2026; no fixed future payment dates have been published.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. AST SpaceMobile is building a constellation of large low-earth-orbit satellites designed to connect directly to ordinary, unmodified mobile handsets, earning revenue by sharing airtime income with the mobile network operators that supply the spectrum and own the customers. Today almost all of its revenue is gateway hardware and government engineering work rather than airtime: FY2025 revenue was $70.9m, the first materially revenue-generating year, against a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9m, or $(1.34) per share. In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $31.5m and the loss widened to $230.9m, or $(0.77) per share, including a $125.9m write-off of the BlueBird 7 satellite. Management has reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $150m to $200m against a disclosed backlog of approximately $1.30bn. The near-term driver is deployment rate: thirteen spacecraft were in orbit as at August 2026, against a target of roughly 45 that has slipped from end-2026 towards early 2027.
What would confirm or break it. The thesis is confirmed by the launch cadence holding at one mission every one to two months without further vehicle failures, by second-half 2026 revenue reaching the two-to-three times first-half level needed to meet guidance, by beta service converting into contracted airtime revenue with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone, and by international regulatory approvals landing on schedule. It is invalidated by the liquidity and funding-runway risk materialising, with cash of $2,288m at 30 June 2026 against investing outflows running near $2bn a year forcing another dilutive raise on worse terms; by a further total satellite loss; by the deployment schedule slipping again; or by Starlink Direct-to-Cell locking up the mobile network operator partnerships on which the entire revenue model depends.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (86 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Spectrum and regulatory position is genuinely hard to replicate:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Liquidity and funding runway:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 17 Aug 2026.
