Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Company Research
Last Updated: 12 August 2026
Apple enters the final weeks of Tim Cook's fifteen-year tenure as chief executive in unusually good shape. The June 2026 quarter was the strongest third quarter the company has ever reported — revenue of $109.4bn, up 16.4% year over year, with Greater China back to double-digit growth after two years of decline. On 1 September 2026 hardware engineering chief John Ternus takes over as CEO and Cook moves to executive chairman. The handover lands in the middle of three unresolved questions: whether the rebuilt Siri, unveiled at WWDC26 and shipping with iOS 27, closes Apple's assistant gap; whether the roughly $20bn a year Google pays for Safari search placement survives the antitrust appeals; and whether a genuine memory-chip shortage that management called a "100-year flood" squeezes margins through the autumn iPhone cycle. This report sets out what the filings say, and leaves the conclusions to you.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Apple Inc. |
| Ticker / Exchange | AAPL / NASDAQ |
| Headquarters | Cupertino, California, United States |
| Founded / IPO | Founded 1976; listed December 1980 |
| Sector | Technology — consumer electronics and digital services |
| CEO / Leadership | Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer (since 2011). John Ternus becomes CEO on 1 September 2026; Cook becomes Executive Chairman. Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sabih Khan, Chief Operating Officer. |
| Employees | Approximately 166,000 full-time equivalents (FY2025 Form 10-K, as at 27 September 2025) |
| Revenue (FY2025, ended 27 Sep 2025) | $416,161m ($416.2bn), up 6.4% year over year |
| Net income (FY2025) | $112,010m ($112.0bn); GAAP diluted EPS $7.46 |
| Revenue (trailing twelve months to 27 Jun 2026) | $466,823m ($466.8bn) |
| Most recent quarter | Q3 FY2026, ended 27 June 2026, reported 30 July 2026: revenue $109,417m, GAAP diluted EPS $2.02 |
| Market cap | ~$4,449.9bn ($4.45 trillion) at the 11 August 2026 close of $304.91 |
| Dividend | $0.27 per share quarterly ($1.08 annualised); yield ~0.35% |
| Fiscal year end | Last Saturday of September |
2. Bull Case & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Reacceleration is real and broad-based: Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 16.4% to $109,417m with every geography up double digits, including Greater China at +22.4% after a year of contraction. Operating income rose 26.6% to $35,695m — growth is running well ahead of the 3.3% five-year revenue CAGR embedded in the FY2021–FY2025 record.
- Services is now a genuine second business: Services revenue reached $109,158m in FY2025 and $30,739m in Q3 FY2026 at a 75.6% gross margin, against 40.1% for products. With over 2.5bn active devices and more than 1.5bn paid subscriptions, the recurring layer keeps expanding regardless of any single hardware cycle.
- Premium mix is winning a shrinking market: global smartphone shipments fell 6.7% year over year in Q2 2026 as memory-cost inflation crushed budget Android makers, yet Apple took 20.1% of units and roughly 49% of industry revenue. Pain that hurts rivals disproportionately is a competitive advantage.
- Capital return at extraordinary scale: the board authorised a further $100bn of buybacks on 30 April 2026. Apple repurchased $90,711m of stock in FY2025 and $62,094m in the first nine months of FY2026, shrinking the diluted share count from 16,865m in FY2021 to 15,005m in FY2025 — a mechanical tailwind to per-share figures.
- A denser product cycle than usual: the September 2026 line-up is expected to include the first foldable iPhone alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, with the C2 in-house modem, camera-equipped AirPods and an M5 Vision Pro also in train. Apple has told suppliers to prepare roughly 10 million foldable units.
Bear Case
- The Google search payment is the single largest earnings risk: trial evidence put Google's payments for Safari default placement at about $20bn in 2022 alone, close to pure operating profit. Judge Mehta's remedies bar exclusivity and multi-year conditioning, both sides have appealed, and the arrangement's long-run value is genuinely uncertain.
- Regulatory pressure is compounding, not easing: the EU General Court dismissed Apple's gatekeeper challenge on 8 July 2026, a €500m anti-steering fine stands, the App Store commission structure was rebuilt on 1 January 2026, US link-out purchases currently carry zero commission, and the DOJ monopolisation suit survived dismissal in June 2025.
- Input costs and supply are both moving the wrong way: management guided September-quarter gross margin down to 47–48% from 50.1%, warned that supply constraints on advanced-node silicon would "increase significantly sequentially" across iPhone, Mac and iPad, and described memory pricing as a "100-year flood" that has already forced iPad and Mac price rises.
- Apple is buying its AI rather than building it: the rebuilt Siri runs on a custom Google Gemini model under a reported billion-dollar-a-year agreement, after the in-house revamp slipped repeatedly through 2025 and 2026. Siri AI has still not shipped to the public. R&D rose 32.3% year over year in Q3 FY2026 to $11,729m, which is the cost of catching up.
- Succession risk meets a full valuation: the stock trades at roughly 35 times trailing GAAP earnings and about 9.5 times sales, near record highs, at the exact moment an unproven chief executive takes over from arguably the most successful operator of his generation. There is limited margin for a stumble.
3. Product & Service Segments
Apple reports one operating segment but discloses revenue by product category and by geography. The category split for FY2025, the most recent completed fiscal year, is below.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 50.4% ($209,586m) | The smartphone line and the anchor of the whole ecosystem. Grew 4.2% in FY2025 and accelerated sharply to +21.7% in Q3 FY2026 ($54,252m). |
| Services | 26.2% ($109,158m) | App Store commissions, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV, Apple Pay, AppleCare, advertising and search licensing. Highest-margin business at 75.6% gross margin; grew 13.5% in FY2025. |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 8.6% ($35,686m) | Apple Watch, AirPods, Vision Pro, HomePod, Apple TV hardware and accessories. Declined 3.6% in FY2025, the only category to shrink. |
| Mac | 8.1% ($33,708m) | Desktop and notebook computers on Apple silicon, including the newer lower-cost MacBook Neo line. Grew 12.4% in FY2025 and 28.7% in Q3 FY2026. |
| iPad | 6.7% ($28,023m) | Tablet line spanning iPad, iPad Air, iPad Pro and iPad mini. Grew 5.0% in FY2025 but fell 5.9% in Q3 FY2026. |
By geography in FY2025: Americas $178,353m (42.9%), Europe $111,032m (26.7%), Greater China $64,377m (15.5%, down 3.8%), Rest of Asia Pacific $33,696m (8.1%) and Japan $28,703m (6.9%). The Greater China picture changed materially in Q3 FY2026, with the region growing 22.4% to $18,816m.
4. Business Model & Competitive Moat
How it makes money. Apple sells hardware at premium prices and gross margins around 40%, then monetises the installed base a second time through Services at gross margins above 75%. The two reinforce each other: hardware creates the subscriber, Services raises the cost of leaving. In FY2025 products generated $220,960m of cost of sales against $416,161m of revenue, and the blended gross margin was 46.9%. In Q3 FY2026 the blend reached 50.1%, helped by roughly two percentage points of tariff refunds and by Services growing faster than hardware.
Where the moat comes from. Switching costs are the core of it. More than 2.5bn active devices share one account system, one payments layer, one messaging protocol and one continuity model, so leaving means abandoning purchases, photo libraries, subscriptions and the connections between devices. Vertical integration is the second pillar: Apple designs its own application processors, and since 2025 its own cellular modem, which lets it ship performance-per-watt characteristics competitors buy off the shelf. The third is distribution — over 500 retail stores and control of the App Store, which is precisely why regulators keep arriving.
What the moat does not cover. Apple does not own a frontier AI model, and the rebuilt Siri depends on a custom Google Gemini model running inside Apple's Private Cloud Compute. It also does not control the search revenue line, which is a contractual payment from a company currently subject to antitrust remedies. Both are places where the integration story has a seam.
5. Financial Health
Five-year annual record from Apple's Form 10-K filings. Apple does not publish a non-GAAP adjusted EPS, so the adjusted column repeats GAAP except where a disclosed one-off distorts the comparison.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (25 Sep 2021) | 365,817 | +33.3% | $5.61 | $5.61 † | $0.85 | $109,106m |
| FY2022 (24 Sep 2022) | 394,328 | +7.8% | $6.11 | $6.11 † | $0.90 | $98,959m |
| FY2023 (30 Sep 2023) | 383,285 | −2.8% | $6.13 | $6.13 † | $0.94 | $95,281m |
| FY2024 (28 Sep 2024) | 391,035 | +2.0% | $6.08 | $6.75 ‡ | $0.98 | $85,750m |
| FY2025 (27 Sep 2025) | 416,161 | +6.4% | $7.46 | $7.46 † | $1.02 | $78,328m |
† Apple reports on a GAAP basis only and publishes no adjusted earnings measure, so GAAP diluted EPS is repeated in the adjusted column.
‡ FY2024 GAAP diluted EPS of $6.08 absorbed a one-time $10,246m income tax charge arising from the European Commission State Aid decision. Excluding that charge, diluted EPS was $6.75. The figure is derived from Apple's disclosed charge divided by 15,408,095 thousand weighted-average diluted shares, and is not a company-published non-GAAP measure.
Revenue over the five years compounds at 3.3% a year, but the shape matters more than the average: a pandemic-inflated FY2021, two flat-to-down years, then a clear reacceleration in FY2025 that has continued into FY2026. Long-term debt has been reduced every year since FY2021, from $109,106m to $78,328m. Cash generation is the standout — FY2025 operating cash flow of $111,482m against capital expenditure of just $12,715m.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (ended 27 Jun 2026) | $109,417m | $2.02 † | $2.02 |
| Q2 FY2026 (ended 28 Mar 2026) | $111,184m | $2.01 † | $2.01 |
| Q1 FY2026 (ended 27 Dec 2025) | $143,756m | $2.84 † | $2.84 |
| Q4 FY2025 (ended 27 Sep 2025) | $102,466m | $1.85 † | $1.85 |
| Q3 FY2025 (ended 28 Jun 2025) | $94,036m | $1.57 † | $1.57 |
| FY2025 total (ended 27 Sep 2025) | $416,161m | $7.46 † | $7.46 |
The Q3 FY2026 result included a $2.2bn tariff refund, worth roughly two percentage points of gross margin and $0.11 of diluted EPS. Nine-month FY2026 revenue stands at $364,357m with net income of $101,464m and operating cash flow of $116,996m. At 27 June 2026 the balance sheet held $39,544m of cash, $22,855m of current marketable securities and $84,118m of non-current marketable securities against $84,344m of total debt — a net cash position of roughly $62.2bn.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $304.91 (close, 11 August 2026) |
| Market cap | ~$4,449.9bn ($304.91 × ~14,594m shares outstanding) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~35.0x ($304.91 / TTM diluted EPS $8.72, being the sum of the four quarters to 27 Jun 2026: $1.85 + $2.84 + $2.01 + $2.02). Apple publishes no adjusted EPS, so there is no separate adjusted multiple; the only material distortion in the series was the FY2024 State Aid charge, which is outside this TTM window. |
| P/E (forward) | ~32.1x (on a consensus forward EPS estimate of ~$9.51) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~9.5x (market cap ~$4,449.9bn / TTM revenue $466,823m) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~26.1x (EV ~$4,387.7bn / TTM EBITDA ~$167.9bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income $154,859m + D&A of roughly $13.1bn). On the audited FY2025 basis the multiple is ~30.3x, where EBITDA of $144,748m = operating income $133,050m + depreciation and amortisation $11,698m, which ties exactly to the cash flow statement add-back. |
| P/FCF | ~45.1x (market cap ~$4,449.9bn / FY2025 FCF $98,767m; FCF = operating cash flow $111,482m − capital expenditure $12,715m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow has since risen to roughly $146.7bn, which would lower this materially once the full-year capex figure is known. |
| Enterprise value | ~$4,387.7bn (market cap ~$4,449.9bn + total debt $84,344m − cash and marketable securities $146,517m, per the 27 June 2026 balance sheet). Netting only cash and current securities, as several data vendors do, gives ~$4,471.9bn. |
| Price/book | ~41.4x (book value per share $7.36). Book value is heavily suppressed by cumulative buybacks, so this is of limited use for Apple. |
| 52-week high | $344.57 intraday; $340.08 on a closing basis (28 July 2026) |
| 52-week low | $223.78 intraday; $224.90 on a closing basis |
| Short interest (% of float) | 0.97% (141,606,163 shares short against a float of ~14,240m, settlement date 31 July 2026) |
| Days to cover | 2.58 days |
| Dividend yield | ~0.35% ($1.08 annualised on $304.91) |
Compare these levels against the live price action on the ChartsView Live Charts page.
7. What Are They Building
Siri AI and the next Apple Intelligence. Announced at WWDC26 on 8 June 2026, the rebuilt Siri handles multi-turn conversation, real-time world knowledge and cross-app awareness of personal data, and is surfaced through the Dynamic Island. It has not yet shipped publicly — it arrives with iOS 27, expected around 14 September 2026, with the advanced features restricted to iPhone 17 Pro and newer. The engine underneath is a custom Google Gemini model of roughly 1.2 trillion parameters, confirmed on 12 January 2026 under a multi-year agreement reported at about $1bn a year, run inside Apple's Private Cloud Compute.
The foldable iPhone and a restructured launch calendar. Apple's first foldable is expected at the September 2026 event alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, with suppliers asked to prepare roughly 10 million units. The standard iPhone 18, the 18e and the next iPhone Air have been pushed to spring 2027, splitting what was a single autumn launch into two cycles a year.
Silicon independence. The C2 modem, successor to the C1, is expected in the iPhone 18 Pro line with satellite 5G browsing, and a 5G MacBook is expected to follow late in 2026. Apple also disclosed on 30 July 2026 an agreement with Broadcom worth more than $30bn covering custom silicon and wireless connectivity components. On the Mac side, M5 versions of the Mac Studio, Mac mini and iMac are expected during 2026, with an OLED, redesigned M6 MacBook Pro to follow.
New sensing hardware. Camera-equipped AirPods are targeted for this autumn, enabling hand-gesture recognition and detection of whether a user is being spoken to — capability that leans directly on the Q.ai acquisition of around $1.6bn completed in January 2026, whose technology covers whispered-speech interpretation and facial micro-movement sensing. Apple is also reported to be reconsidering the Apple Watch line-up as the industry shifts toward screen-free devices.
US manufacturing. The American Manufacturing Program commits $600bn over four years, raised from $500bn on 6 August 2025, covering Corning cover glass in Kentucky, a server plant in Houston and a Detroit manufacturing academy. Apple says it now sources over 100 million components a year from Arizona alone.
8. Competitive Landscape
Market capitalisations below were re-checked live on 12 August 2026 against the 11 August closes. Non-US figures are converted at rates pulled the same day (KRW/USD 1,414.93; HKD/USD 7.8459).
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025/26 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | ~$4,204.7bn | TTM revenue ~$445.9bn. Also Apple's largest Services counterparty via the Safari search default, and now the supplier of the Gemini model behind Siri AI. |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | ~$3,741.1bn | TTM revenue ~$331.8bn at a ~40% net margin; ~223,000 employees. Competes in personal computing, productivity and cloud AI. |
| Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) | ~$1,192.7bn (KRW 1,687.6tn) | Led global smartphone units in Q2 2026 with 22.6% share (62.7m units) versus Apple's 20.1%. Also a major memory supplier, benefiting from the cost inflation hurting Apple. |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | ~$284.9bn | TTM revenue ~$134.0bn at a ~6.3% net margin; ~97,000 employees. Direct Mac competitor in PCs and a large AI-server vendor. |
| Xiaomi (1810.HK) | ~$86.1bn (HKD 675.5bn) | Q2 2026 smartphone shipments fell 26.3% to 31.2m units for 11.2% share — the clearest example of memory costs squeezing the mid-range. |
| Lenovo Group (0992.HK) | ~$45.2bn (HKD 354.3bn) | TTM revenue ~$83.1bn at a ~2.3% net margin; ~73,500 employees. World's largest PC vendor by units. |
| HP Inc (HPQ) | ~$26.6bn | TTM revenue ~$57.4bn at a ~4.4% net margin; ~55,000 employees. Trades on ~11x trailing earnings against Apple's ~35x. |
The Q2 2026 industry backdrop is unusual. Global smartphone shipments fell 6.7% year over year to 277.5m units, the weakest second quarter since 2013 on Counterpoint's numbers, yet Apple shipped 55.8m units for its first ever 20%-plus share in a June quarter and captured roughly 49% of all industry revenue at an average selling price of $946. Rising memory prices are the mechanism: they compress margins hardest at the low end, where Apple does not compete.
9. Insider Activity
Tim Cook, chief executive since 2011, remains Apple's largest individual insider seller and continues to dispose of vested shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. He adopted a new plan on 28 May 2026 covering up to 16,250 shares plus shares vesting during its term, expiring 30 October 2026. Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh sells under a plan adopted 21 November 2025. Notably, there have been no recorded Form 4 transactions in July or August 2026, and no open-market purchases by any insider during the period reviewed — the pattern is uniformly programmatic disposal of vested stock rather than discretionary selling or buying.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Borders (Principal Accounting Officer) | 16 Jun 2026 | Sale | 116 | $295.14 | $34,236 | Post-vest disposal |
| Arthur D. Levinson (Chairman) | 27 May 2026 | Sale | 50,000 | $311.02 | $15,551,000 | 10b5-1 plan |
| Ben Borders (Principal Accounting Officer) | 8 May 2026 | Sale | 1,274 | $290.00 | $369,460 | Post-vest disposal |
| Arthur D. Levinson (Chairman) | 6 May 2026 | Sale | 250,000 | $284.76 | $71,189,722 | 10b5-1 plan |
| Kevan Parekh (Chief Financial Officer) | 23 Apr 2026 | Sale | 1,534 | $275.00 | $421,850 | 10b5-1 plan adopted 21 Nov 2025 |
| Deirdre O'Brien (Senior Vice President) | 2 Apr 2026 | Sale | 30,002 | $255.35 | $7,660,875 | 10b5-1 plan |
| Timothy D. Cook (Chief Executive Officer) | 2 Apr 2026 | Sale | 64,949 | $254.23 | $16,512,198 | 10b5-1 plan adopted 24 May 2024 |
| Timothy D. Cook (Chief Executive Officer) | 2 Oct 2025 | Sale | 129,963 | $256.81 | $33,375,723 | 10b5-1 plan |
Cook retained 3,351,250 shares after the April 2026 sale; Levinson held 3,755,576 after his May disposals. Jennifer Newstead, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, adopted a new 10b5-1 plan on 5 May 2026 covering up to 24,912 shares plus up to 90% of shares vesting between 15 June 2026 and 15 March 2027.
10. Key Risks
- Search revenue concentration: Google's payments for default placement in Safari were valued at approximately $20bn in 2022 on trial evidence and carry almost no associated cost. The remedies in the Google search case bar exclusivity and multi-year conditioning, both sides have appealed, and oral argument is not expected before late 2026 or early 2027. Any reduction flows almost directly to operating income.
- Antitrust and platform regulation across three jurisdictions: the DOJ monopolisation suit survived a motion to dismiss on 30 June 2025 with no trial date set; the EU General Court dismissed Apple's gatekeeper challenge on 8 July 2026 and a €500m anti-steering fine stands; and the US Supreme Court granted certiorari on 30 June 2026 in the Epic contempt matter, to be heard in the term beginning October 2026. Adverse outcomes would compress App Store economics.
- Component cost inflation and supply constraints: management guided September-quarter gross margin down to 47–48% from 50.1% and warned that constraints on advanced-node system-on-chip supply would worsen significantly, affecting iPhone, Mac and iPad. Memory pricing was described as a "100-year flood", and Apple has already raised iPad and Mac prices in response.
- Greater China exposure and geopolitics: the region generated $64,377m in FY2025 and remains a substantial share of both demand and manufacturing capacity. Revenue there declined 3.8% in FY2025 before recovering, and the recovery depends on conditions Apple does not control. Tariff policy has swung from a $1.4bn quarterly cost guided for December 2025 to a $2.2bn refund in June 2026.
- Artificial intelligence execution: the Siri rebuild slipped repeatedly through 2025 and into 2026 and still has not reached the public. Apple now depends on a third-party frontier model for its flagship assistant. If Siri AI underdelivers at launch, the case for upgrading to newer hardware weakens at exactly the point Apple needs a strong cycle.
- Leadership transition: John Ternus becomes chief executive on 1 September 2026 after a career in hardware engineering, taking over a company where the growth narrative increasingly rests on Services, software and AI. Cook remains as executive chairman, but the operating decisions pass to someone without a public track record in the role.
- iPhone dependence: the iPhone still generated 50.4% of FY2025 revenue and 49.6% of Q3 FY2026 revenue, and drives Services attachment on top. A weak reception for the foldable, or delays to the split 2026–2027 launch calendar, would be felt across the whole income statement.
11. Recent Developments
- 11 Aug 2026 — Apple Arcade expands its catalogue. Block Blast!+ and Art of Fauna were added to the subscription gaming service, continuing the steady content cadence that supports Services growth.
- 09 Aug 2026 — Reports of an Apple Watch overhaul and camera-equipped AirPods. Bloomberg reported that Apple is exploring a shake-up of the smartwatch line-up as the industry moves toward screen-free devices, and is targeting AirPods with cameras for this autumn.
- 30 Jul 2026 — Record third-quarter results. Revenue of $109,417m was up 16.4%, operating income rose 26.6% to $35,695m and diluted EPS of $2.02 grew 29%, including $0.11 from a $2.2bn tariff refund. Operating cash flow of $34.4bn was a June-quarter record and Greater China returned to 22.4% growth.
- 30 Jul 2026 — Cautious September-quarter guidance. Management guided to revenue growth of 9–11% but gross margin of 47–48%, warning that advanced-node supply constraints would increase significantly sequentially and that memory pricing represented a "100-year flood".
- 30 Jul 2026 — Broadcom silicon agreement disclosed. Apple confirmed an agreement exceeding $30bn covering the design and production of custom silicon and wireless connectivity components.
- 08 Jul 2026 — EU General Court rules against Apple. The court dismissed Apple's challenge to its gatekeeper designation for the App Store and iOS and upheld the interoperability obligations under the Digital Markets Act. Apple may appeal to the Court of Justice on points of law only.
- 30 Jun 2026 — Supreme Court grants certiorari in the Epic contempt case. The case will be heard in the term beginning October 2026. Zero commission on qualifying US link-out purchases remains the operative rule in the meantime.
- 08 Jun 2026 — Siri AI unveiled at WWDC26. Apple showed a fully rebuilt Siri with multi-turn conversation, real-time world knowledge and cross-app personal context, shipping with iOS 27.
- 20 Apr 2026 — Chief executive succession announced. Apple confirmed that John Ternus, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, becomes CEO on 1 September 2026, with Tim Cook moving to executive chairman and Arthur Levinson becoming lead independent director.
- 29 Jan 2026 — Q.ai acquisition. Apple acquired the Israeli AI audio and sensing startup for a reported figure of around $1.6bn, its second-largest acquisition ever. Gross intangible assets rose from $24,950m at FY2025 year-end to $38,220m by 27 June 2026.
- 12 Jan 2026 — Google Gemini selected to power Siri. Apple confirmed a multi-year agreement, reported at roughly $1bn a year, for a custom Gemini model of about 1.2 trillion parameters to run behind Siri inside Private Cloud Compute.
12. Key Dates
- 13 Aug 2026 — payment date for the $0.27 quarterly dividend declared on 30 July 2026 (record date was 10 August 2026)
- 26 Aug 2026 — Expected date for September event invitations to be issued, based on Apple's usual lead time
- 31 Aug 2026 — Tim Cook's final day as chief executive
- 01 Sep 2026 — John Ternus becomes chief executive; Cook becomes executive chairman; Arthur Levinson becomes lead independent director and Ternus joins the board
- 09 Sep 2026 — Expected September product event: iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and Apple's first foldable iPhone (date not yet confirmed by Apple)
- 14 Sep 2026 — Expected public release of iOS 27 and Siri AI
- 26 Sep 2026 — Expected FY2026 fiscal year end, being the last Saturday of September
- 29 Oct 2026 — Expected Q4 FY2026 and full-year results (not yet confirmed by Apple)
- Expected Oct 2026 — US Supreme Court term opens; the Epic contempt appeal is to be heard during the term, argument date not yet scheduled
- Expected Nov 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration, record date and payment, following the FY2025 pattern
- Expected Feb 2027 — annual meeting of shareholders (the FY2026 meeting was held 24 February 2026)
- Expected 2027 — earliest realistic trial date in the DOJ antitrust case if settlement talks reported in July 2026 do not conclude
Oral argument in the Google search remedies appeal, which bears directly on Apple's search licensing revenue, has not been scheduled and is not expected before late 2026 at the earliest. Track scheduled macro releases alongside these company dates on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and discuss the setup with other members in the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Apple sells premium hardware at roughly 40% gross margins and then monetises an installed base of over 2.5bn active devices a second time through Services at above 75% gross margins. FY2025 delivered revenue of $416,161m, up 6.4%, with net income of $112,010m and GAAP diluted EPS of $7.46, and the trailing twelve months to June 2026 now stand at $466,823m after growth reaccelerated to 16.4% in the third quarter, with Greater China returning to 22.4% growth. Management has guided the September quarter to revenue growth of 9 to 11% but gross margin down to 47 to 48%, citing advanced-node supply constraints and memory pricing it described as a 100-year flood. The near-term catalysts are the first foldable iPhone at the September event and the public launch of the rebuilt Siri AI with iOS 27, arriving within days of John Ternus becoming chief executive on 1 September 2026.
What would confirm or break it. The thesis is confirmed if the September quarter lands within guidance, Greater China holds its recovery, and Siri AI ships on schedule and is well received, sustaining the Services attachment that underpins the multiple. It is invalidated if the Google search remedies appeal materially reduces the roughly $20bn a year Apple receives for Safari default placement, if adverse outcomes in the DOJ monopolisation suit, the EU Digital Markets Act proceedings or the Epic contempt case compress App Store economics, or if memory-cost inflation and advanced-node supply constraints prove structural rather than cyclical and hold gross margin persistently below the guided 47 to 48% range.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ4 FY2026 earnings (78 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Reacceleration is real and broad-based:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Search revenue concentration:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 12 Aug 2026.
