Industrials

Last Updated: 6 August 2026

Norfolk Southern is not a normal listed company right now. Since 29 July 2025 it has been the target of an approximately $85bn acquisition by Union Pacific that would create the first transcontinental railroad in the United States. Shareholders of both companies approved the deal in November 2025. The Surface Transportation Board did not: it rejected the first application as incomplete in January 2026, accepted a revised version in May 2026 but immediately placed proceedings in abeyance, and as of early August 2026 the evidentiary phase has still not formally begun. Meanwhile the railroad keeps running and posted record quarterly revenue in July 2026. This report covers both stories — the operating business and the regulatory process — using only filed figures.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Norfolk Southern Corporation
Ticker / Exchange	NSC — New York Stock Exchange. Still independently listed and trading; the Union Pacific acquisition has not closed.
Headquarters	650 W. Peachtree Street NW, Atlanta, Georgia, United States
Founded	Predecessor railroads date to 1827; Norfolk Southern Corporation in its modern form was created in 1982
Sector	Industrials — Class I freight railroad
CEO / Leadership	Mark R. George, President and Chief Executive Officer — appointed September 2024 by unanimous vote of the independent directors, following the termination for cause of Alan H. Shaw. Previously Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Norfolk Southern.
Employees	Average of approximately 19,400 during 2025, of whom roughly 80% are covered by collective bargaining agreements (FY2025 Form 10-K)
Revenue (FY2025)	Railway operating revenues of $12,180m ($12.18bn), up 0.5% year on year
Net income / GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025)	GAAP diluted EPS $12.75; adjusted diluted EPS $12.49
Market cap	Approximately $76.7bn (5 August 2026)
Share price	$341.40 (close, 5 August 2026)
Dividend	$1.35 per share quarterly, $5.40 annualised — yield approximately 1.6%. 176 consecutive quarterly dividends since 1982.
Pending transaction	Union Pacific acquisition: 1.0 UNP share plus $88.82 cash per NSC share. Approved by both shareholder bases 14 November 2025; awaiting Surface Transportation Board decision (Docket FD 36873). Company guidance points to a mid-2027 close.

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• A quantifiable spread to the deal terms: At Union Pacific's $292.13 close on 31 July 2026, the merger consideration of one UNP share plus $88.82 cash implies approximately $380.95 per NSC share. NSC closed at $341.40 on 5 August 2026, a discount of roughly 10%. That gap is the market's price for regulatory and timing risk, and it closes if the Surface Transportation Board approves.
• The operating business is improving, not drifting: Second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $3.5bn was a quarterly record, up 11% year on year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $3.52, up 7%, and the adjusted operating ratio back to 65.5% after a weather-hit first quarter.
• The eastern franchise is not reproducible: A 22-state network reaching every major Atlantic container port, plus Gulf and Great Lakes access, sits on rights of way that could not be assembled today. Only two Class I railroads serve the eastern United States at scale, which is why rail pricing has compounded steadily regardless of the freight cycle.
• Labour is largely settled: Twelve of thirteen unions had ratified five-year agreements as of November 2025, averaging roughly 3.5% annual wage increases, and six unions including SMART-TD, the largest, signed "Jobs for Life" agreements supporting the merger.

Bear Case

• The regulatory path has slipped twice already: The Surface Transportation Board rejected the original application as incomplete on 16 January 2026, then on 28 May 2026 accepted the revised filing but placed proceedings including the environmental review in abeyance pending more information. The statutory twelve-month decision clock has not started. Guidance for closing has moved from early 2027 to mid-2027.
• Organised opposition is unusually broad: A "Stop the Rail Merger Coalition" including BNSF, CPKC, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the American Chemistry Council, the Teamsters Rail Conference and the National Industrial Transportation League is contesting the deal, alongside the BLET and BMWED rail unions. Seven Republican state attorneys general wrote to the Department of Justice on 12 February 2026 seeking scrutiny.
• Margins lag every major peer: The FY2025 adjusted operating ratio of 65.0% is the weakest of the five large North American railroads, against Union Pacific's 59.3%. The first quarter of 2026 saw it deteriorate to 70.7% on winter weather and fuel costs, showing how little buffer there is.
• Coal is a managed decline and the freight cycle is unhelpful: Coal contributed $1,487m, or 12% of FY2025 revenue, and management characterises it as a volume placeholder rather than a growth driver. First-quarter 2026 volumes fell 1% year on year in what the company described as a rapidly shifting macroeconomic environment.

3. Revenue Segments

Norfolk Southern reports a single railway operating segment but discloses revenue by commodity group. The figures below are for the twelve months ended 31 December 2025, on total railway operating revenues of $12,180m.

Segment / commodity group	% of revenue	What it is
Merchandise — $7,684m	63%	The largest and most diversified book, comprising agriculture, forest and consumer products; chemicals; metals and construction materials; and automotive. Approximately 2.3 million merchandise carloads were handled during 2025. Dollar splits by sub-group are not separately disclosed in the results release.
Intermodal — $3,009m	25%	Container and trailer traffic moving in partnership with ocean carriers, drayage operators and truckload shippers, connecting Atlantic and Gulf ports to inland terminals. Approximately 4.1 million intermodal units were handled during 2025.
Coal — $1,487m	12%	Domestic utility coal plus metallurgical and thermal export coal moving through Atlantic terminals. Approximately 78.0 million tons were moved during 2025. Volumes rose 9% in the first quarter of 2026 on utility restocking and 3% in the second quarter on new metallurgical export customers.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Norfolk Southern is paid to move freight across a fixed network. Revenue is volume multiplied by revenue per unit, and because most US rail pricing is not rate-regulated, the railroad has been able to raise price at low single-digit rates through the cycle. Fuel surcharges pass through diesel cost with a lag, which is why quarters with sharp fuel moves distort reported margins in both directions.

The operating ratio is the scorecard. Railroads are judged on operating expenses divided by revenue. Norfolk Southern runs the Thoroughbred Operating Plan, its version of Precision Scheduled Railroading adopted in 2019: fewer, longer, faster scheduled trains, rationalised yards, and tight headcount. FY2025 delivered a reported operating ratio of 64.2% and an adjusted 65.0%, against 76.5% reported in derailment-hit 2023. Management has framed the multi-year objective as closing the gap towards a sub-60% ratio.

Why the moat holds. There are six Class I railroads in North America and two of scale in the East. The rights of way, bridges and tunnels were laid down over more than a century and could not be permitted, purchased or built at anything like their book cost today. That scarcity, rather than any technology or brand, is the entire barrier to entry, and it is what makes the industry a structural oligopoly with captive shippers who have no practical alternative for bulk and long-haul freight.

What the merger would change. Combining with Union Pacific would produce a single-line network of more than 50,000 route miles across 43 states, removing the interchange handoffs in Chicago and Memphis that add days to transcontinental transit. That is the applicants' service case; it is also precisely what shippers and competing railroads are contesting before the Surface Transportation Board. Price action through the process can be followed on the ChartsView live charts.

5. Financial Health

Figures below come from Norfolk Southern quarterly and full-year results releases and the associated Form 8-K exhibits. Balance sheet and cash flow items have been independently re-derived from the SEC XBRL company facts filing for CIK 0000702165.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
2021	$11,142m	+13.8%	$12.11	$12.11†	$4.16	$13,287m
2022	$12,745m	+14.4%	$13.88	$13.88†	$4.96	$14,479m
2023	$12,156m	−4.6%	$8.02	$11.74	$5.40	$17,175m
2024	$12,123m	−0.3%	$11.57	$11.85	$5.40	$16,651m
2025	$12,180m	+0.5%	$12.75	$12.49	$5.40	$16,480m

† Norfolk Southern disclosed no non-GAAP adjustments to diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2021 or fiscal 2022, so the GAAP figure is repeated in the adjusted column for those years. Long-term debt is the noncurrent balance-sheet line taken consistently across all five years from the SEC XBRL tag LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations; current maturities are shown in Section 6.

The 2023 distortion. The East Palestine, Ohio derailment on 3 February 2023 drove a full-year expense of $1,116m net of $101m of insurance recoveries. That is the entire explanation for the collapse in GAAP EPS from $13.88 to $8.02 and the gap to the $11.74 adjusted figure that year.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026, reported 23 Jul 2026)	$3.50bn	$3.52	$3.26
Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026, reported 24 Apr 2026)	$3.00bn	$2.65	$2.43
Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025, reported 29 Jan 2026)	$2,974m	$3.22	$2.87
Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)	$3.1bn	$3.30	$3.16
Q2 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$3,145m	$3.29	$3.41
FY2025 total	$12,180m	$12.49	$12.75

FY2025 cash flow, balance sheet and margin inputs. Operating cash flow $4,361m. Capital expenditure (property additions) $2,204m. Depreciation $1,393m. Railway operating income $4,356m. Reported operating ratio 64.2%; adjusted operating ratio 65.0%. Cash and cash equivalents $1,530m, with no separate current short-term investments line on the balance sheet. Current maturities of long-term debt $607m; noncurrent long-term debt $16,480m. Merger-related expense of $80m was recognised during 2025 covering retention agreements, advisers and legal costs. Quarterly reporting and earnings calls have continued normally throughout the merger process.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Share price	$341.40 (close, 5 August 2026)
Market cap	Approximately $76.7bn (224.6m shares outstanding at $341.40, 5 August 2026)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	Approximately 29.1x. Price $341.40 divided by trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $11.72 (Q3 2025 $3.16 plus Q4 2025 $2.87 plus Q1 2026 $2.43 plus Q2 2026 $3.26). On the equivalent adjusted trailing-twelve-month figure of $12.69 the multiple is approximately 26.9x.
P/E (forward)	Approximately 25x on Yahoo Finance's forward earnings estimate as at early August 2026. Note that the multiple is distorted by the pending acquisition, since the share price is anchored to the deal consideration rather than to standalone earnings.
P/S (TTM)	Approximately 6.3x (market cap $76.7bn divided by FY2025 railway operating revenues $12.18bn)
Enterprise value	Approximately $92.2bn (market cap $76.7bn plus total debt $17.09bn minus cash $1.53bn). Total debt is noncurrent long-term debt of $16,480m plus current maturities of $607m per the FY2025 balance sheet; no separate current short-term investments line was disclosed.
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Approximately 16.0x. EV of approximately $92.2bn divided by FY2025 EBITDA of approximately $5.75bn; EBITDA is railway operating income $4,356m plus depreciation $1,393m per the cash flow statement, which is also the figure tagged as DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization in the XBRL filing.
P/FCF	Approximately 35.5x. Market cap $76.7bn divided by free cash flow of approximately $2.16bn; free cash flow is FY2025 operating cash flow $4,361m minus capital expenditure of $2,204m.
Dividend yield	Approximately 1.6% ($5.40 annualised on a $341.40 share price)
Implied merger consideration	Approximately $380.95 per NSC share (one Union Pacific share at its $292.13 close on 31 July 2026 plus $88.82 cash). NSC trades at roughly a 10% discount to that figure.
52-week high	$358.60
52-week low	$268.23
Short interest (% of float)	3.68% — 8,266,038 shares short as at the 15 July 2026 reporting date, down 3.1% from the 30 June 2026 report (MarketBeat, sourced from the twice-monthly exchange report)
Days to cover	9.9 days on average daily volume of approximately 1.15m shares (15 July 2026 reporting date)

7. What Are They Building

Digital Train Inspection portals. The most substantive technology programme, developed with the Georgia Tech Research Institute. Trackside arrays of 24-megapixel cameras capture roughly 1,000 images of every railcar at speeds up to 70mph, and an in-house data science team has built more than 38 deep-learning defect-detection models running over that imagery, within a wider ecosystem of 92 digital inspection and 39 automated track inspection machine-learning models. The intent is to catch mechanical defects before they become derailments, which after East Palestine is both a safety and a regulatory imperative.

Safety and remediation post-East Palestine. The company reported its best injury and accident rates in more than a decade during 2025, alongside continuing environmental remediation and community obligations tied to the 2023 derailment.

Network and capacity investment. Capital expenditure has run at $2,327m in 2023, $2,381m in 2024 and $2,204m in 2025, directed at terminal throughput, network optimisation and productivity. Management cited more than $215m of productivity savings realised during 2025.

Merger integration planning. Alongside the operating business, Norfolk Southern is preparing for combination with Union Pacific: supplemental Surface Transportation Board filings, employee-impact disclosures ordered public in July 2026, and enhanced customer protection commitments that the applicants describe as going beyond any prior rail merger. Retention agreements, advisers and legal costs drove the $80m merger-related expense recognised in 2025.

8. Competitive Position

Norfolk Southern competes directly with CSX for eastern US freight and, for transcontinental traffic, interchanges with the western carriers it would merge into. The comparison that matters most is operating ratio, where Norfolk Southern currently sits last among the five large North American railroads.

Peer	Market cap (August 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Union Pacific (UNP) — the acquirer	Approximately $175bn (31 July 2026)	FY2025 operating ratio 59.8% reported and 59.3% adjusted, the strongest of the North American majors.
CSX Corporation (CSX)	Approximately $92.8bn (22 July 2026)	FY2025 revenue $14.09bn, marginally lower year on year; FY2025 operating margin 32.1%, down from 36.1% in FY2024.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)	Approximately $78.1bn (July 2026)	Q1 2026 operating ratio 63.0%, with a stated company target below 57% for full-year 2026.
Canadian National Railway (CNI)	Approximately $72.6bn (3 June 2026)	Q2 2026 adjusted operating ratio 62.2%, 50 basis points worse year on year; trailing-twelve-month revenue approximately $12.4bn as at June 2026.

For context, Norfolk Southern's FY2025 adjusted operating ratio of 65.0% is the highest of this group, which is the gap the Union Pacific transaction is explicitly intended to close.

9. Insider Activity

President and Chief Executive Officer Mark R. George leads the company through the merger process. No discretionary open-market purchases or sales by Norfolk Southern Section 16 officers or directors were identified in 2026 Form 4 filings reviewed via SEC EDGAR and OpenInsider. The activity below is entirely compensation-related — restricted and deferred stock unit vesting, dividend-equivalent credits and tax-withholding dispositions — and is presented for completeness rather than as a trading signal.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
John F. Orr (EVP and Chief Operating Officer)	Apr 2026	RSU vesting from a 26 Apr 2024 award	8,319 vested	n/a	n/a	Equity award vesting
John F. Orr (EVP and Chief Operating Officer)	Apr 2026	Shares withheld for tax	3,247	$320.805	$1.04m	Tax withholding, not a discretionary sale
John C. Huffard Jr. (Director)	20 May 2026	Dividend-equivalent credit	22.4811 RSUs and 12.7350 DSUs	n/a	n/a	Director compensation
Richard H. Anderson (Director)	Feb 2026	Dividend-equivalent credit	10.0869 RSUs and 5.4114 DSUs	n/a	n/a	Director compensation

The absence of discretionary trading is unsurprising: insiders at a company under a signed merger agreement are generally constrained from open-market dealing while the transaction is pending.

10. Key Risks

• Regulatory rejection or heavy conditioning: The Surface Transportation Board rejected the original application as incomplete on 16 January 2026 and, having accepted the revised filing on 28 May 2026, placed proceedings including the environmental review in abeyance pending supplemental information. The evidentiary phase has not begun and the statutory decision clock has not started. Approval is not assured, and any approval could carry conditions that erode the deal's economics.
• Timing risk and the cost of delay: Guidance for closing has already moved from early 2027 to mid-2027. Every additional procedural round extends the period over which shareholders carry the roughly 10% discount to implied consideration without receiving it.
• Organised and political opposition: BNSF, CPKC, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the American Chemistry Council, the Teamsters Rail Conference and the National Industrial Transportation League have formed a coalition against the deal; the BLET and BMWED unions oppose it; and seven state attorneys general wrote to the Department of Justice on 12 February 2026 asking for scrutiny. Final authority rests with the Surface Transportation Board alone, but the volume of opposition lengthens and complicates the record.
• Residual East Palestine exposure: The $600m class-action settlement survived a Supreme Court refusal to hear a challenge in March 2026 and a rejected attempt to reopen it in May 2026, but environmental remediation and community obligations continue, and the payout process has generated further adverse publicity.
• Operating ratio underperformance: The FY2025 adjusted operating ratio of 65.0% trails every large North American peer, and the first quarter of 2026 saw it widen to 70.7% on weather and fuel. Merger-related expense of $80m in 2025 adds a further drag while the transaction remains pending.
• Coal structural decline: Coal was 12% of FY2025 revenue and management treats it as a volume placeholder rather than a growth engine, citing structurally pressured seaborne and export pricing despite a near-term utility restocking bounce in 2026.
• Freight cycle and macro exposure: First-quarter 2026 revenue was flat with volumes down 1% in what the company described as a rapidly shifting macroeconomic environment, including a March 2026 fuel price spike. Railroad revenue tracks industrial production and consumer goods flows directly.
• Labour friction around integration: Twelve of thirteen unions have ratified five-year deals, but the BLET and BMWED remain opposed to the merger on safety and jobs grounds, creating a risk of friction during any integration period even while day-to-day operations continue normally.

11. Recent Developments

• 27 Jul 2026 — Supplemental merger filings completed. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed the final tranche of Surface Transportation Board-ordered supplemental information, including employee-impact exhibits redesignated as public on the Board's 22 July 2026 order, and offered enhanced customer protection commitments described as exceeding those in any prior rail merger.
• 23 Jul 2026 — Second-quarter 2026 results. Record quarterly revenue of approximately $3.5bn, up 11% year on year; GAAP diluted EPS of $3.26, down 4%; adjusted diluted EPS of $3.52, up 7%; adjusted operating ratio 65.5%.
• 21 Jul 2026 — Quarterly dividend declared. The board declared $1.35 per share, payable 20 August 2026 to holders of record 7 August 2026 — the 176th consecutive quarterly dividend since the 1982 formation.
• 28 May 2026 — Surface Transportation Board accepts the revised application but pauses proceedings. The Board found the 30 April 2026 revised filing complete, then placed the case including the environmental review in abeyance and ordered supplemental information by 27 July 2026.
• 07 May 2026 — Annual shareholder meeting held. Conducted virtually, on a 2 March 2026 record date.
• 30 Apr 2026 — Revised joint merger application filed. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern refiled with the Surface Transportation Board after the January rejection.
• 24 Apr 2026 — First-quarter 2026 results. Revenue approximately flat at $3.0bn, GAAP diluted EPS of $2.43, down 27% year on year, and an operating ratio of 70.7% on winter weather, volatile volumes and rising fuel costs.
• 12 Feb 2026 — State attorneys general letter to the Department of Justice. Seven Republican state attorneys general urged the Department to scrutinise the transaction on competition grounds.
• 29 Jan 2026 — Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. Full-year railway operating revenues of $12,180m, GAAP diluted EPS of $12.75 and a reported operating ratio of 64.2%.
• 16 Jan 2026 — Surface Transportation Board rejects the original merger application. The Board found the 19 December 2025 filing incomplete under its major-merger regulations, forcing a refiling.
• 14 Nov 2025 — Shareholders approve the transaction. Norfolk Southern holders voted approximately 99% in favour and Union Pacific holders approximately 99.5% in favour.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 07 Aug 2026 — record date for the $1.35 per share quarterly dividend
• 20 Aug 2026 — payment date for the $1.35 per share quarterly dividend
• Expected Oct 2026 — third-quarter 2026 results; Norfolk Southern has continued normal quarterly reporting throughout the merger process and no exact date has yet been confirmed by the company
• Expected Oct 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration, on the established cadence
• TBD — Surface Transportation Board order setting the evidentiary and hearing schedule in Docket FD 36873, which would start the statutory twelve-month decision clock; no date had been published as at 6 August 2026
• Expected Jan 2027 — fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results
• Expected Jun 2027 — company guidance for completion of the Union Pacific transaction, revised during 2026 from an earlier early-2027 expectation

Scheduled macro releases that move freight and industrial names are listed on the ChartsView economic calendar, and merger developments are discussed in the ChartsView forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 18 July 2026

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural equipment and a major producer of construction and forestry machinery, sold under the John Deere brand through one of the industry's strongest dealer networks. The company pairs iron with software: its precision-agriculture stack now counts roughly 440,000 monthly active users, and its See & Spray technology covered around 5 million acres last year. Fiscal 2025 (ended 2 November 2025) marked the second consecutive down year of the agricultural cycle, with net sales and revenues of $45.7 billion and net income of $5.03 billion, but management raised fiscal 2026 guidance in May 2026 as construction demand surged and the farm downturn showed signs of bottoming. This research is data-only: figures come from Deere's press releases, 10-K and 10-Q filings, and SEC XBRL data. You can chart the stock live on our Live Charts page.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Deere & Company
Ticker / Exchange	DE / New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Sector / Industry	Industrials — agricultural, construction and forestry machinery
Headquarters	Moline, Illinois, United States
Founded	1837
CEO / Leadership	John C. May, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO since November 2019, Chairman since 2020)
Employees	Approximately 73,100 (10-K, at 2 November 2025)
Fiscal year end	Late October / early November (FY2025 ended 2 November 2025; FY2026 ends 1 November 2026)
Market cap	~$161.7bn (16 July 2026: ~269.9m shares at $598.97)
Revenue (FY2025)	$45,684m net sales and revenues (down 12% year on year)
Net income (FY2025)	$5,027m attributable to Deere & Company; diluted EPS $18.50
Dividend	$1.62 per share quarterly ($6.48 declared in FY2025)

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Precision-agriculture technology moat: Deere's software and automation stack — roughly 440,000 monthly active users, See & Spray covering ~5 million acres with demonstrated 50–60% herbicide savings — deepens dealer and customer lock-in and supports a growing recurring-revenue ambition.
• Construction & Forestry is booming: C&F net sales rose 29% year on year in Q2 FY2026 to $3.79bn on infrastructure and data-centre spending, and management guides segment sales up ~20% for FY2026 with roadbuilding up ~10%.
• Guidance raised mid-cycle: after four consecutive quarterly EPS beats, FY2026 net income guidance was lifted in May 2026 to $4.5–5.0bn from the initial $4.00–4.75bn, with management pointing to the agricultural cycle bottoming in 2026.
• Tariff relief and refunds: the US Supreme Court's 20 February 2026 decision invalidating IEEPA tariffs allowed Deere to book a $272m refund recovery in fiscal Q2, easing a headwind management had flagged when it first guided FY2026.
• Long-term reinvestment: a $20bn, 10-year US manufacturing investment programme (two new facilities announced 27 January 2026) plus a strong balance sheet — equipment-operations cash of $7.9bn — underpin capacity for the next upcycle.

Bear Case

• Large-ag downturn is not over: Production & Precision Agriculture sales fell 14% in Q2 FY2026 and the company guides US/Canada large-ag industry demand down 15–20% for FY2026, with South American tractors and combines down ~15%.
• Cyclical earnings, peak multiple: trailing GAAP EPS of ~$17.65 is roughly half the FY2023 peak of $34.63, yet the shares trade near 34x trailing earnings — a valuation that assumes a strong recovery arrives on schedule.
• Trade-policy uncertainty persists: despite the IEEPA refunds, other tariff programmes remain in force and Deere cited higher production costs from tariffs in both Q4 FY2025 and Q2 FY2026 segment commentary.
• Right-to-repair obligations: the 8 July 2026 FTC settlement requires Deere, for 10 years under FTC supervision, to give farmers and independent shops the same repair resources as authorised dealers — a potential drag on high-margin parts and service revenue.
• Captive-finance exposure: John Deere Financial carries a ~$70bn asset book funded by ~$57.9bn of total borrowings; a prolonged farm recession would raise credit losses and used-equipment residual risk.

3. Business Segments

Deere reports four segments. Figures below are fiscal 2025 (ended 2 November 2025) net sales for the equipment segments and total segment revenues for Financial Services, per the 10-K segment note; percentages are of total segment net sales and revenues of $46,116m (before intersegment eliminations).

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Production & Precision Agriculture	~38% ($17,311m external net sales)	Large tractors, combines, cotton and sugarcane harvesters, sprayers and planting equipment for large-scale grain and livestock producers, plus the precision-agriculture technology stack (guidance, autonomy, See & Spray).
Construction & Forestry	~25% ($11,382m external net sales)	Earthmoving, roadbuilding (Wirtgen), compact construction and forestry equipment serving infrastructure, housing and logging customers.
Small Agriculture & Turf	~22% ($10,224m external net sales)	Mid-size and utility tractors, hay and forage equipment, riding lawn equipment, compact utility tractors and turf-care products for smaller farms, livestock producers and property owners.
Financial Services (John Deere Financial)	~14% ($6,289m total segment revenues)	Retail and wholesale financing and leasing for Deere equipment across a ~$70bn asset book; FY2025 segment operating profit of $1,114m.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Deere sells equipment through independent dealers, books high-margin parts and service revenue across a large installed base, and increasingly monetises technology — precision-agriculture hardware, software subscriptions and data services. John Deere Financial then finances a large share of those purchases, earning a spread on a ~$70bn receivables and lease portfolio ($1,114m FY2025 segment operating profit). In FY2025 the equipment segments produced $38.9bn of external net sales (PPA $17.3bn, C&F $11.4bn, SAT $10.2bn) and Financial Services $6.3bn of segment revenues.

The moat. The John Deere dealer network is the widest distribution and service footprint in agriculture; switching costs rise as farms standardise on Deere machinery, guidance systems and agronomic data. Technology adoption deepens this: See & Spray has scaled from 1 million acres in its first year to roughly 5 million acres, cutting herbicide use 50–60%, and R&D spending ran at $583m in fiscal Q2 2026 alone. Scale (FY2025 revenue of $45.7bn versus AGCO's ~$10.1bn and CNH's $18.1bn) lets Deere outspend rivals on autonomy and electrification through the cycle.

The cycle and the finance arm. Equipment demand tracks farm income and commodity prices, so revenue swings hard — from $61.3bn (FY2023) to $45.7bn (FY2025). The captive finance arm smooths purchases for customers and captures financing economics, but it also concentrates credit and residual-value risk on Deere's balance sheet, which carried $43.5bn of long-term borrowings at FY2025 year-end.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures below are from Deere's audited 10-K filings and SEC XBRL data. Revenue in the table is net sales plus finance and interest income per the consolidated income statements (the "total revenue" basis used by standard market-data providers); it excludes the separate "other income" line of roughly $1.0–1.3bn a year. Including other income, total net sales and revenues were $45,684m in FY2025, $51,716m in FY2024 and $61,251m in FY2023. Deere's fiscal year ends in late October / early November — FY2025 ran 28 October 2024 to 2 November 2025 (53 weeks).

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021 (ended 31 Oct 2021)	$43,033m	+23.9%	$18.99	$18.99*	$3.61	$32,888m
FY2022 (ended 30 Oct 2022)	$51,282m	+19.2%	$23.28	$23.28*	$4.36	$33,596m
FY2023 (ended 29 Oct 2023)	$60,248m	+17.5%	$34.63	$34.63*	$5.05	$38,477m
FY2024 (ended 27 Oct 2024)	$50,518m	-16.1%	$25.62	$25.62*	$5.88	$43,229m
FY2025 (ended 2 Nov 2025)	$44,665m	-11.6%	$18.50	$18.50*	$6.48	$43,544m

* Deere does not publish an adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS measure; fully diluted GAAP EPS is shown in both columns. Results in several years include special items described in the company's filings (for example, tariff-related items in FY2025–26). Revenue components per the 10-K income statements: FY2025 net sales $38,917m + finance and interest income $5,748m; FY2024 $44,759m + $5,759m; FY2023 $55,565m + $4,683m; FY2022 $47,917m + $3,365m; FY2021 $39,737m + $3,296m. Long-term debt is year-end long-term borrowings per the 10-K balance sheet (excludes short-term borrowings and finance leases). Dividend/share is declared per fiscal year.

Quarterly figures (most recent first; revenue here is total net sales and revenues as headlined in Deere's press releases, including other income):

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 FY2026 (ended 3 May 2026)	$13,369m	$6.55*	$6.55
Q1 FY2026 (ended 1 Feb 2026)	$9,611m	$2.42*	$2.42
Q4 FY2025 (ended 2 Nov 2025)	$12,394m	$3.93*	$3.93
Q3 FY2025 (ended 27 Jul 2025)	$12,018m	$4.75*	$4.75
FY2025 total	$45,684m	$18.50*	$18.50

Cash generation held up through the downturn: FY2025 operating cash flow was $7,459m against capital expenditure (property and equipment) of $1,360m, with depreciation and amortisation of $2,229m. Fiscal Q2 2026 showed the cycle stabilising — revenue up 5% year on year to $13,369m, net income of $1,773m, and the six-month equipment net sales of $19.8bn versus $18.0bn a year earlier. Shareholders' equity stood at $27.4bn at 3 May 2026, and quarterly dividends have been held at $1.62 per share since the December 2024 increase.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$161.7bn (16 July 2026: ~269.9m shares at $598.97)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~34x (price $598.97 / trailing four-quarter GAAP EPS of $17.65: Q3 FY25 $4.75 + Q4 FY25 $3.93 + Q1 FY26 $2.42 + Q2 FY26 $6.55)
P/E (forward)	~32–36x (FY2026 guidance of $4.5–5.0bn net income implies roughly $16.7–18.5 EPS on ~270m shares)
P/S (TTM)	~3.4x (market cap ~$161.7bn / trailing four-quarter revenue of $47,392m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~18x (EV ~$210bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$11.7bn; EBITDA = net income $5,027m + tax $1,259m + interest expense $3,170m + D&A $2,229m per FY2025 statements — note the interest add-back includes John Deere Financial funding costs, so this multiple blends the finance arm with equipment operations)
P/FCF	~27x (market cap ~$161.7bn / FCF ~$6.1bn; FCF = operating cash flow $7,459m − capex $1,360m per FY2025 cash flow statement)
Enterprise value	~$210bn (market cap ~$161.7bn + total borrowings $57,893m (long-term $42,261m + short-term $15,632m) − cash $7,905m − marketable securities $1,430m, per the 3 May 2026 balance sheet; much of the debt funds the ~$70bn John Deere Financial book)
52-week high	$674.19
52-week low	$433.00
Short interest (% of float)	~0.9% (~2.7m shares; Fintel reading, July 2026)
Days to cover	~1.6 (July 2026; a February 2026 reading was ~5.0 days on lower volume)

7. What Are They Building?

Deere's stated ambition is to make farming and construction autonomous, connected and data-driven — and to convert that technology into recurring revenue.

Autonomy and precision agriculture. See & Spray targeted spraying has scaled from 1 million acres in its first year to roughly 5 million acres globally, with 50–60% herbicide savings demonstrated; the precision-ag ecosystem counts ~440,000 monthly active users. R&D spend was $583m in fiscal Q2 2026 alone (up from $549m a year earlier) as Deere extends autonomous tillage, spraying and orchard machinery across its fleet.

US manufacturing capacity. On 27 January 2026 Deere announced a distribution centre near Hebron, Indiana and a manufacturing campus in Kernersville, North Carolina — the first concrete steps in a $20bn, 10-year US investment programme confirmed by management on the Q2 FY2026 earnings call.

Construction & Forestry expansion. With US infrastructure and data-centre construction running hot, Deere guides C&F net sales up ~20% in FY2026 (roadbuilding up ~10%) and raised the segment outlook after Q2's 29% sales growth. Financial Services net income is guided to roughly $860m for FY2026. Upcoming macro catalysts that move the farm economy — USDA reports, rate decisions and trade headlines — can be tracked on our Economic Calendar.

8. Peer Comparison

Deere's closest listed peers span agricultural and construction machinery. Figures are from each company's reported results and market data as at the dates shown.

Peer	Market cap (Jul 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)	~$421bn	FY2025 sales and revenues $67.6bn, up 4% year on year
Kubota (TYO: 6326)	~$19.3bn (June 2026)	CY2025 revenue ¥3,018.9bn, up 0.1% year on year
CNH Industrial (NYSE: CNH)	~$12.7bn (8 July 2026)	FY2025 consolidated revenues $18.1bn, down 9%; industrial net sales $15.35bn, down 10%
AGCO (NYSE: AGCO)	~$8.5bn	FY2025 net sales ~$10.1bn, down 13.5%; adjusted operating margin 7.7%

9. Insider Activity

Form 4 filings over the past year show routine, plan-based activity from senior leadership, including Chairman and CEO John C. May; no open-market purchases by executives were identified in the filings reviewed.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
John C. May (Chairman & CEO)	25 Nov 2025	Option exercise and sale	11,106	$254.83 exercise / ~$500.08 sale	~$5.55m (sale)	Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 20 Jun 2025
Kellye L. Walker (Chief Legal Officer)	01 May 2026	Shares withheld for tax on RSU settlement	568	$577.26	~$0.33m	Not open-market (tax withholding)

10. Key Risks

• Agricultural equipment cycle: Deere guides US/Canada large-ag industry sales down 15–20% and South American tractors and combines down ~15% for FY2026; a slower-than-expected recovery would leave the elevated earnings multiple exposed.
• Farm income and commodity prices: demand for high-horsepower equipment tracks crop receipts and livestock economics; weak grain prices or poor harvests directly suppress orders and used-equipment values.
• Tariffs and trade policy: tariffs raised production costs in FY2025–26 and, while the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling produced a $272m refund recovery, other tariff programmes and retaliatory measures remain live variables for costs and export demand.
• Right-to-repair obligations: under the 8 July 2026 FTC settlement Deere must provide farmers and independent repair providers the same repair resources as authorised dealers for 10 years, with potential erosion of parts and service margins over time.
• Captive-finance credit risk: John Deere Financial's ~$70bn asset book, funded by ~$57.9bn of borrowings, exposes the group to farmer credit losses, residual-value risk on leases and funding-cost swings.
• Competition: Caterpillar (construction), CNH, AGCO and Kubota (agriculture) compete on price and increasingly on technology, while lower-cost entrants pressure emerging-market share.
• Dealer inventory and demand timing: dealer destocking amplified the FY2024–25 revenue decline; misjudging channel inventories in either direction would distort shipment volumes versus retail demand.

11. Recent Developments

• 08 Jul 2026 — FTC right-to-repair settlement. The FTC and five states settled their antitrust suit against Deere: for 10 years, under FTC supervision, Deere must give farmers and independent repair providers the same repair resources — including software capabilities — that authorised dealers receive. The settlement removes a litigation overhang while creating long-term compliance obligations.
• 21 May 2026 — Q2 FY2026 beat; guidance raised. Net income of $1,773m ($6.55 diluted EPS, a fourth consecutive beat) on revenue of $13,369m, up 5%. Construction & Forestry sales rose 29% and Small Ag & Turf 16%, while Production & Precision Ag fell 14%. FY2026 net income guidance was raised to $4.5–5.0bn.
• 20 Feb 2026 — Supreme Court invalidates IEEPA tariffs. Following the ruling, Deere recorded a $272m recovery in fiscal Q2 for tariff refund claims accepted by US Customs and Border Protection.
• 27 Jan 2026 — New US facilities under $20bn plan. Deere announced a distribution centre near Hebron, Indiana and a manufacturing campus in Kernersville, North Carolina, part of its $20bn, 10-year US manufacturing investment commitment.
• 26 Nov 2025 — FY2025 results; cautious initial FY2026 outlook. FY2025 net income of $5,027m ($18.50 EPS) on revenue down 12% at $45,684m; Q4 revenue rose 11% to $12,394m. Initial FY2026 guidance of $4.00–4.75bn came in below market expectations as management warned of a larger tariff hit — guidance since raised.

12. Key Dates & What to Watch

• 20 Aug 2026 — Q3 FY2026 results expected (date per exchange calendars; Deere typically reports in mid-to-late August and had not formally confirmed at the time of writing)
• 01 Nov 2026 — fiscal 2026 year end
• Expected Nov 2026 — Q4 and full-year FY2026 results with initial FY2027 guidance (Deere reported FY2025 results on 26 November 2025)
• TBC — next quarterly dividend declaration; the rate has been $1.62 per share since December 2024, so any move would signal the board's view of the cycle

Watch the cadence of large-ag order books, used-equipment inventories and any further tariff rulings; these drive the FY2027 setup. Discuss the stock with other members on our Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 17 July 2026

Union Pacific is the largest freight railroad in the western two-thirds of the United States, operating a 32,889 route-mile network across 23 states that links Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and eastern gateways. In 2025 the company generated $24.51bn of operating revenue and reported diluted EPS of $11.98, running one of the industry's best operating ratios near 60%. The dominant question for investors today is its pending $85bn merger with Norfolk Southern, which would create the first single-line coast-to-coast railroad in the US and is currently under Surface Transportation Board review. This report examines the business, its financial trend, valuation and the bull and bear arguments. Live pricing is on our Live Charts page and scheduled catalysts on the Economic Calendar.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Union Pacific Corporation
Ticker / Exchange	UNP (NYSE)
Sector	Industrials — Railroads / Freight Transport
CEO / Leadership	Vincenzo (Jim) Vena (Chief Executive Officer); Jennifer Hamann (CFO)
Employees	~29,300 (2025 year-end)
Network	32,889 route miles across 23 states
Headquarters	Omaha, Nebraska, USA
Market cap	~$171bn (15 Jul 2026)
Share price	~$288 (mid-Jul 2026)
Revenue (FY2025)	$24.51bn
GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025)	$11.98
Adjusted EPS (FY2025)	$11.66
Dividend / share (FY2025 declared)	$5.44
Next earnings	23 Jul 2026 (Q2 2026)

2. Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

• Transformational merger optionality: The proposed combination with Norfolk Southern would create the first US transcontinental single-line railroad, with management targeting roughly $2.75bn of annual synergies and EPS accretion building from Year 2.
• Best-in-class operations: Union Pacific posted record first-quarter revenue, income and efficiency in 2026 with an operating ratio around 60%, reflecting disciplined precision-scheduled railroading and pricing power.
• Wide, irreplaceable moat: Its network is effectively a duopoly with BNSF in the western US; the right-of-way and infrastructure could not realistically be rebuilt, giving durable pricing and volume defensibility.
• Reliable capital returns: The company has raised its dividend for nearly two decades and generates strong free cash flow, with a $5.44 per-share dividend declared in 2025.
• Volume and share recovery: Coast-to-coast single-line service, if approved, could win freight from trucking and interline routings, adding a structural volume driver on top of pricing.

Bear Case

• Merger regulatory risk: The STB accepted the application but held proceedings in abeyance and demanded more information; approval is not assured, could carry conditions, and the deal would not close before 2027.
• Buybacks suspended: Both companies plan to pause share repurchases through 2028 to fund the deal, removing a major lever that had supported EPS growth.
• Cyclical, trade-sensitive volumes: Freight demand tracks the industrial economy and global trade; tariffs, a recession or weak intermodal could pressure carloads.
• Secular coal decline: Coal and some bulk categories face structural decline, a persistent headwind to volume mix.
• Integration and leverage: Absorbing an $85bn acquisition brings execution risk, a heavier debt load and years of integration complexity.

3. Business Segments

Union Pacific reports freight revenue in three commodity groups plus other revenue. Percentages below are shares of total 2025 operating revenue of $24.51bn.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Industrial	~35% ($8.60bn)	Construction, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals and ores, petroleum, LPG, soda ash and sand
Bulk	~31% ($7.59bn)	Grain and grain products, fertiliser, food and refrigerated, coal and renewables
Premium	~28% (~$6.9bn)	Automotive (finished vehicles and parts) and intermodal container traffic
Other	~6% (~$1.4bn)	Accessorial, subsidiary and other operating revenue not tied to freight carloads

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Union Pacific earns revenue hauling freight by rail, charging per carload or container based on commodity, distance and service. Profitability is driven by volume, pricing and cost efficiency, tracked through the operating ratio (operating expense divided by revenue); a lower ratio means more of every revenue dollar becomes profit. In 2025 the operating ratio ran near 60%, among the best in the industry.

Why the moat is durable. The network is a physical asset that cannot be replicated: building a competing transcontinental right-of-way is economically and politically impossible. In the western US, Union Pacific and BNSF form an effective duopoly, giving both strong pricing power. High fixed costs and dense traffic create scale advantages that favour incumbents.

Where it is vulnerable. Railroads are capital-intensive and cyclical, tied to industrial output and trade flows. Trucking competes for time-sensitive freight, and regulation, labour agreements and fuel prices all shape margins. The pending Norfolk Southern merger could reshape the competitive map, for better or worse.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are drawn from Union Pacific's SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q) and quarterly earnings press releases.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt ($m, YE)
FY2021	21,804	+11.6%	$9.95	$9.95	$4.29	29,729
FY2022	24,875	+14.1%	$11.21	$11.21	$5.08	33,326
FY2023	24,119	−3.0%	$10.45	$10.45	$5.20	32,579
FY2024	24,250	+0.5%	$11.09	$11.09	$5.28	31,192
FY2025	24,510	+1.1%	$11.98	$11.66	$5.44	31,814

For years 2021–2024 Union Pacific reported no material non-GAAP adjustments, so the adjusted column equals GAAP EPS. FY2025 adjusted EPS of $11.66 excludes roughly $0.30 of net-of-cost industrial-park land-sale gains and about $0.05 of Norfolk Southern merger costs versus reported EPS of $11.98.

Quarterly detail (most recent first), with a bold full-year 2025 total.

Quarter	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	6,217	$2.93	$2.87
Q4 2025	6,244	$2.86	$3.11
Q3 2025	6,154	$3.08	$3.01
Q2 2025	6,091	—	$2.75
FY2025 total	24,510	$11.66	$11.98

At year-end 2025 the balance sheet carried about $30.3bn of non-current long-term debt plus $1.5bn current maturities (roughly $31.8bn total), against $1.27bn of cash. Full-year operating cash flow was $9.29bn and capital expenditure $3.79bn, giving free cash flow of about $5.5bn.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$171bn (15 Jul 2026)
Enterprise value	~$202bn (market cap ~$171bn + total debt ~$31.8bn − cash ~$1.3bn per FY2025 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~24x (price ~$288 / TTM GAAP EPS ~$12.15, i.e. FY2025 $11.98 − Q1 2025 $2.70 + Q1 2026 $2.87)
P/E (forward)	~23x (price ~$288 / FY2026 EPS ~$12.6, from management's guided mid-single-digit EPS growth off FY2025 $11.98)
P/S (TTM)	~6.9x (market cap ~$171bn / TTM revenue ~$24.7bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~16x (EV ~$202bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$12.3bn; EBITDA = operating income $9.85bn + D&A $2.49bn per cash flow statement)
P/FCF	~31x (market cap ~$171bn / FCF ~$5.5bn; FCF = operating cash flow $9.29bn − capex $3.79bn per FY2025 cash flow statement)
52-week high	$300.06
52-week low	$210.84
Short interest (% of float)	~1.6% (Fintel/MarketBeat, latest 2026 reading; ~10m shares)
Days to cover	~3.2 days

7. What Are They Building

Union Pacific's defining project is the proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, announced in July 2025 and valuing NS at roughly $85bn, or about $320 per share (one UP share plus $88.82 in cash per NS share). Management frames the combination as America's first transcontinental single-line railroad, spanning more than 50,000 miles across 43 states and connecting about 100 North American ports. The stated prize is roughly $2.75bn of annual synergies from new revenue and productivity, with adjusted-EPS accretion beginning early in Year 2 and building thereafter. Over 99% of both companies' shareholders approved the deal in November 2025.

Beyond the merger, Union Pacific continues to invest in its network through a capital plan of about $3.3bn a year, funding track, locomotives, technology and capacity to improve safety, velocity and fuel efficiency. The near-term operational agenda is service reliability and pricing discipline while the regulatory process runs its course, with the company affirming a 2026 outlook for mid-single-digit EPS growth and further operating-ratio improvement.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (Jul 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Union Pacific (UNP)	~$171bn	FY2025 revenue $24.51bn
CSX (CSX)	~$92bn	FY2025 revenue $14.1bn
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)	~$78bn	FY2025 revenue C$15.07bn
Norfolk Southern (NSC)	~$74bn	FY2025 revenue $12.18bn
Canadian National (CNI)	~$74bn	FY2025 revenue C$17.7bn

9. Insider Activity

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Vincenzo J. Vena (CEO)	13 Apr 2026	Acquire (ESPP)	~12	$250.51	~$3,000	Employee Stock Purchase Plan

Insider activity has been limited to routine equity-compensation transactions rather than large open-market trades; CEO Jim Vena acquired a small number of shares through the employee stock purchase plan and directly held about 220,695 shares afterward. No material insider open-market purchases or sales were reported in the period.

10. Key Risks

• Merger regulatory outcome (Regulatory): The STB review is in abeyance pending supplemental information; the deal could be delayed, conditioned or rejected, and much of the current investment thesis hinges on approval.
• Integration and financing (Financial/Operational): Absorbing an $85bn acquisition would add debt and multi-year integration complexity, with synergy delivery uncertain.
• Freight-volume cyclicality (Macro): Carloads track industrial production and trade; a downturn, tariffs or weak intermodal would pressure revenue.
• Secular coal decline (Operational): Structural erosion in coal and some bulk categories is a persistent volume headwind.
• Labour relations (Operational): Around 85% of the workforce is unionised across 13 major rail unions; disputes or work rules can affect cost and service.
• Suspended buybacks (Financial): Pausing repurchases through 2028 removes a key EPS-support mechanism during the merger period.
• Fuel and service risk (Macro/Operational): Fuel-price swings and any service disruption directly affect the operating ratio and customer retention.

11. Recent Developments

• 25 Jun 2026 — Q2 earnings date set. Union Pacific announced it would report second-quarter 2026 results on 23 July 2026, with a conference call the same morning.
• 28 May 2026 — STB accepts merger application, pauses review. The Surface Transportation Board accepted the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern application for consideration but held proceedings in abeyance, requesting supplemental information due by 27 July 2026.
• 30 Apr 2026 — Revised merger application filed. The companies submitted a revised joint application after the STB had earlier deemed the January filing incomplete.
• 23 Apr 2026 — Record Q1 2026 results. Operating revenue rose 3% to $6.22bn with diluted EPS up 6% to $2.87 and an operating ratio of 60.5%; management affirmed its 2026 outlook.
• 27 Jan 2026 — Q4 and full-year 2025 results. Full-year net income was $7.1bn (EPS $11.98, up 8%); Q4 EPS of $3.11 included land-sale gains and merger costs.

12. Key Dates

• 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results at 7:45 a.m. ET, with conference call at 8:45 a.m. ET
• 27 Jul 2026 — deadline for the UP/NS supplemental information filing to the STB
• 22 Oct 2026 — expected Q3 2026 results (provisional, based on prior-year cadence)
• 31 Mar 2027 — management's targeted window for merger completion (early-to-mid 2027, subject to STB approval)

For scheduled economic releases and earnings, use the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and share views on the Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 12 July 2026

Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: SUNB) is the second-largest equipment rental company in North America and the former Ashtead Group plc — the UK blue-chip stalwart that traded on the London Stock Exchange as AHT until it completed its US redomiciliation and moved its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange on 2 March 2026 (it retains a secondary LSE listing under SUNB). The business rents general construction tools and a fast-growing range of Specialty equipment from over 1,600 locations, with almost all operating profit generated in North America. This research covers the fundamentals, financial health, valuation and key dates — no analyst opinions, just facts from primary sources.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. (formerly Ashtead Group plc)
Ticker / Exchange	SUNB / NYSE (primary, since 2 Mar 2026); secondary listing LSE: SUNB
Sector	Industrials — equipment rental and services
Headquarters	Fort Mill, South Carolina, USA
Employees	26,016 (30 Apr 2026, per FY2026 results)
CEO	Brendan Horgan
Fiscal year end	30 April
Revenue (FY2026, ended 30 Apr 2026)	$11,154m (record; rental revenue $10,320m)
Net income (FY2026)	$1,325m (GAAP); adjusted EBITDA $4,677m
Market cap	~$30.8bn (10 July 2026)
Dividend	FY2026 total $1.125/share (+4%); final $0.75 payable 24 Jul 2026; moving to quarterly dividends in fiscal 2027
Network / fleet	1,611 rental locations; rental fleet of $19.2bn at original equipment cost

2. Bull Case / Bear Case

Bull Case

• Structural growth in rental penetration and mega projects: Sunbelt targets a growing North American mega-project pipeline (data centres, semiconductors, LNG — projected by management to exceed $1.3 trillion across FY26–FY28) and ended FY2026 with momentum: fourth-quarter rental revenue up 8%, including +15.1% in North America Specialty.
• Specialty expansion and the Reliant/Aries deal: The $650m acquisition of Reliant Asset Management (closed 1 May 2026, trading as Aries Building Systems) adds modular space solutions as a new Specialty vertical, is expected to be EPS-accretive in year one, and extends a record of 13 bolt-ons and 51 greenfields opened in FY2026 alone.
• Through-the-cycle cash generation and shareholder returns: FY2026 free cash flow was $2,055m, funding $1,413m of buybacks and $464m of dividends ($1.88bn total returns); a fresh $1.5bn buyback programme began 2 March 2026 and net leverage sits at 1.6x, comfortably inside the 1–2x target.
• Constructive FY2027 outlook: Guidance calls for total revenue growth of 4.5–7.5%, rental revenue growth of 5–8% and adjusted EBITDA of $4.85–5.05bn, with gross rental capex stepping up to $2.45–2.85bn — a reacceleration of fleet investment after two restrained years.

Bear Case

• Margin compression: FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin fell 210bps to 41.9% (Q4: down 400bps to 38.7%) on a higher mix of lower-margin Specialty and ancillary revenue, internal repair and repositioning costs, and growth investment; adjusted operating profit margin dropped 180bps to 22.4%.
• Earnings went backwards: FY2026 GAAP EPS fell 11.5% to $3.15 and adjusted EPS slipped 1.6% to $3.72, weighed by restructuring and relisting costs, higher stock-compensation expense and a higher effective tax rate.
• Soft local construction and an ageing fleet: General Tool rental revenue grew just 2.1% for the year as local non-residential construction completions outpaced starts, and average fleet age rose to 53 months (from 49), which can raise repair costs and eventual replacement capex.
• UK drag and interest burden: The UK segment earned only a 6.3% adjusted operating margin (restructuring announced December 2025), while total debt of $7.6bn at ~5% average cost keeps net interest expense near $390m a year; the debt-to-net-income ratio rose to 5.7x as earnings dipped.

3. Business Segments

Sunbelt reports three segments. FY2026 revenue split from the results release:

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
North America — General Tool	58.3% ($6,507m)	Core construction and industrial equipment rental (aerial work platforms, forklifts, earthmoving, tools) across the US and Canada; 814 stores
North America — Specialty	33.3% ($3,715m)	Higher-growth niches: Power & HVAC (incl. load banks), climate control, flooring, temporary fencing, structures and walls, trench safety, scaffold, film & TV and, from May 2026, modular space (Aries); 614 stores
United Kingdom	8.4% ($932m)	Sunbelt Rentals UK equipment rental; 183 stores; under operational restructuring to lift returns

4. How They Make Money

Renting a $19bn fleet at high dollar utilization. Sunbelt buys equipment at scale, rents it out and earns back a multiple of the purchase price over the asset's life. Group dollar utilization (trailing rental revenue over original equipment cost) was 55% in FY2026 — 47% in General Tool and 75% in Specialty — with rental rates described as stable. Equipment rental generated $10.3bn of the $11.2bn of FY2026 revenue; the balance came from selling used fleet, new equipment, merchandise and consumables.

Scale advantages in a fragmented market. As the number-two player in North American equipment rental, Sunbelt clusters stores in metro markets, cross-sells Specialty lines to General Tool customers (management noted almost 50% of revenue comes from customers renting both General Tool and three or more Specialty lines), and uses its balance sheet to buy bolt-ons and open greenfields that smaller rivals cannot match.

Capital allocation drives per-share growth. Free cash flow after fleet capex funds bolt-on M&A, a progressive dividend (moving to quarterly payments in fiscal 2027) and buybacks — the share count fell ~3.6% in FY2026 — while net leverage is held between 1x and 2x adjusted EBITDA.

5. Financial Health

Figures from company results announcements (Ashtead Group IFRS reporting through FY2025; US GAAP from FY2026, with FY2025 comparatives restated under US GAAP where shown). The fiscal year ends 30 April. Revenue dipped slightly in FY2025 on lower used-equipment sales before returning to a record in FY2026.

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2022	$7,962m	+19.9%	$2.81¹	$3.07	$0.80	$5,180m²
FY2023	$9,667m	+21.4%	$3.68¹	$3.89	$1.00	$6,595m²
FY2024	$10,859m	+12.3%	$3.66¹	$3.87	$1.05	$7,995m²
FY2025	$10,791m	−0.6%	$3.56³	$3.78³	$1.08	$7,500m
FY2026	$11,154m	+3.4%	$3.15	$3.72	$1.125	$7,033m

¹ FY2022–FY2024 EPS are statutory basic EPS under IFRS as reported by Ashtead Group plc (280.9¢, 368.4¢, 365.8¢); adjusted EPS excludes intangible amortisation and exceptional/non-recurring items. ² FY2022–FY2024 long-term debt is non-current borrowings (senior secured bank debt plus senior notes, excluding lease liabilities) per the annual results. ³ FY2025 as restated under US GAAP in the FY2026 release ($3.56 basic EPS; as originally reported under IFRS: statutory basic EPS 346.5¢, adjusted EPS 369.5¢).

Quarterly disclosure begins with the US listing; figures below are from the FY2026 fourth-quarter release (most recent first):

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q4 FY2026 (Feb–Apr 2026)	$2,754m	$0.74	$0.55
Q4 FY2025 (comparative)	$2,529m	$0.81	$0.76
FY2026 total	$11,154m	$3.72	$3.15

Balance sheet at 30 April 2026: long-term debt $7,033m plus $550m of short-term debt and current maturities (total debt $7,583m), cash $29m, net debt $7,554m, net leverage 1.6x adjusted EBITDA. Stockholders' equity was $7,409m. FY2026 operating cash flow was $3,784m; gross capital expenditure was $2,194m ($1,842m rental fleet + $352m non-rental), and depreciation and amortisation was $2,309m. Free cash flow (company definition, after $465m of disposal proceeds) was $2,055m. Availability under the senior secured credit facility was $3,540m, with facilities committed for an average of five years at ~5% cost.

6. Valuation Snapshot

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$30.8bn (share price ~$75.22, 10 July 2026)
Enterprise value	~$38.4bn (market cap ~$30.8bn + total debt $7,583m − cash $29m per FY2026 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~23.9x (price ~$75.22 / FY2026 GAAP EPS $3.15; ~20.2x on adjusted EPS of $3.72)
P/E (forward)	n/a — the company guides FY2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, not EPS
P/S (TTM)	~2.8x (market cap ~$30.8bn / FY2026 revenue $11.15bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~8.5x on GAAP EBITDA (EV ~$38.4bn / FY2026 EBITDA $4,497m); ~8.2x on adjusted EBITDA of $4,677m
P/FCF	~15.0x (market cap ~$30.8bn / FY2026 free cash flow $2,055m; FCF = operating CF $3,784m − gross capex $2,194m + equipment disposal proceeds $465m per the FY2026 cash flow statement)
52-week high	$86.68
52-week low	$60.42
Short interest (% of float)	— not published for this period; the stock only began NYSE trading on 2 Mar 2026 and consolidated figures are not yet widely reported (verify at nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/sunb or MarketBeat)
Days to cover	— see short interest note above
Dividend yield	~1.5% ($1.125 FY2026 dividend at ~$75)

7. What Are They Building

The Sunbelt 4.0 strategy is about densifying the North American network and tilting the mix toward Specialty. In FY2026 the company opened 51 greenfield locations, completed 13 bolt-on acquisitions for $238m, and then closed the $650m Reliant Asset Management deal on 1 May 2026 — its entry into modular space solutions (mobile offices, classrooms, storage) under the Aries Building Systems brand, opening a new Specialty vertical with cross-sell potential into its existing customer base.

Fleet investment is reaccelerating: FY2027 guidance calls for gross rental capex of $2.45–2.85bn (up from $1.84bn in FY2026) to serve mega projects — data centres, semiconductor fabs and LNG facilities — where management sees the pipeline growing from ~$840bn (FY23–FY25) to more than $1.3 trillion (FY26–FY28). In the UK, a restructuring announced in December 2025 aims to lift segment returns through operational efficiency and rate improvement. The March 2026 NYSE primary listing itself is part of the build: a US-domiciled, US GAAP, dollar-reporting company positioned for potential inclusion in major US indices and a deeper investor base, with a new $1.5bn buyback running alongside.

8. Competitive Landscape

North American equipment rental remains fragmented, with the top players gaining share. Key listed peers:

Peer	Market cap (July 2026)	Key 2025 metric
United Rentals (URI)	~$68bn	Industry number one by revenue; market cap roughly double Sunbelt's (~C$94.7bn quoted July 2026)
Herc Holdings (HRI)	~$5.0bn	Third-largest US rental player; market cap up from ~$4.4bn in May 2026 after absorbing the H&E Equipment acquisition
WillScot Holdings (WSC)	~$4.8bn (2 Jul 2026)	Modular space and storage leader — the incumbent Sunbelt now challenges directly via Aries Building Systems

Sunbelt (~$30.8bn market cap) sits firmly second behind United Rentals in North America, with its Specialty mix (75% dollar utilization) as the key differentiator against both URI and smaller regional players.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Brendan Horgan has been chief executive officer since 2019, having run the Sunbelt US business; Alex Pease is chief financial officer. The board and reporting structure transitioned to US-domiciled Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. on 2 March 2026. Section 16 insider filings since the NYSE listing show equity-compensation activity rather than open-market trades:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Brendan Horgan (CEO)	27 Feb 2026	Grant — common stock and deferred stock units (listing transition of existing awards)	469,979 + 12,890 DSUs	$0.00 (award)	—	Equity compensation
Brendan Horgan (CEO)	02 Mar 2026	Grant — common stock	257,422	$0.00 (award)	—	Equity compensation
Barbara Clark (SVP & Chief Accounting Officer)	19–20 Jun 2026	Disposition — shares withheld for tax on vested PSUs/RSUs	2,362	$86.06	~$0.20m	Tax withholding

Note: these filings reflect equity awards carried over in the redomiciliation and routine tax withholding; there has been no material insider open-market buying or selling by CEO Brendan Horgan or other executives since the NYSE listing began in March 2026.

10. Risks

• Construction cycle exposure (Macro): Rental demand tracks non-residential construction; local commercial construction remains soft with completions outpacing starts, and a downturn in mega-project activity (data centres, semiconductors, LNG) would remove the main growth engine.
• Margin pressure (Operational): Adjusted EBITDA margin fell 210bps in FY2026 on mix shift, repair and repositioning costs and growth investment; if utilization or rates weaken while the cost base grows, margins could compress further before scale benefits return.
• Acquisition and integration risk (Operational): The strategy leans on continuous bolt-ons plus the $650m Reliant deal in a new vertical (modular space) where incumbents like WillScot are entrenched; overpaying or mis-integrating acquisitions would depress returns on the $17.6bn adjusted net asset base.
• Leverage and interest costs (Financial): Total debt of $7.6bn at ~5% average cost consumed $387m of net interest in FY2026, and the debt-to-net-income ratio rose to 5.7x; while net leverage of 1.6x adjusted EBITDA is within target, a demand shock plus committed capex would test that flexibility.
• Fleet economics (Operational): Average fleet age rose to 53 months from 49; older fleet raises maintenance costs, and catching up on replacement capex ($2.45–2.85bn guided for FY2027) reduces free cash flow at the same time used-equipment values normalise.
• UK segment underperformance (Operational): The UK earns just a 6.3% adjusted operating margin with local-currency rental revenue declining; the December 2025 restructuring carries execution risk and further impairment charges are possible.
• Index and flow transition (Financial): Following the move of its primary listing to New York, the shareholder register is still rotating toward US investors; until potential inclusion in major US indices, the stock may see lighter passive demand than comparable US large caps.

11. Recent Developments

• 23 Jun 2026 — FY2026 results: record revenue, margins pressured. Revenue of $11,154m (+3.4%) with Q4 rental revenue up 8.0%; FY GAAP EPS $3.15 (−11.5%), adjusted EPS $3.72 (−1.6%); adjusted EBITDA $4,677m at a 41.9% margin (−210bps). FY2027 guidance: revenue +4.5–7.5%, adjusted EBITDA $4.85–5.05bn. A final dividend of $0.75 was declared (FY total $1.125, +4%), with a move to quarterly dividends planned for fiscal 2027.
• 23 Jun 2026 — Reliant Asset Management acquisition announced. Sunbelt disclosed it closed the $650m purchase on 1 May 2026; Reliant (trading as Aries Building Systems) rents and sells modular structures, mobile offices, classrooms and storage, adding a new Specialty vertical expected to be EPS-accretive in year one.
• 02 Mar 2026 — NYSE primary listing began. Shares commenced trading as SUNB on the New York Stock Exchange, completing the US redomiciliation from Ashtead Group plc (one SUNB share per Ashtead share); a new $1.5bn share buyback programme started the same day, and the LSE listing became secondary.
• 24 Feb 2026 — $1.5bn buyback completed. The buyback programme launched in December 2024 completed, with $1,413m repurchased across the two programmes during fiscal 2026.
• Dec 2025 — UK restructuring announced. Operational restructure of the UK segment to improve returns on capital; FY2026 restructuring costs (UK plus relisting) totalled $134m before tax across staff, impairment and other items.

12. Key Dates & What to Watch

• 24 Jul 2026 — final dividend of $0.75 per share paid (record date 10 Jul 2026) — the last payment under the semi-annual scheme.
• Expected Sep 2026 — fiscal Q1 2027 results (quarter ending 31 July 2026); watch General Tool growth versus the 5–8% FY2027 rental revenue guide and the first contribution from Aries Building Systems.
• Expected Oct 2026 — details of the first quarterly dividend under the new fiscal 2027 quarterly-payment policy.
• Expected Dec 2026 — fiscal Q2 2027 results and progress on the new $1.5bn buyback programme.
• TBC — potential inclusion in major US equity indices following the March 2026 redomiciliation; timing depends on index providers' eligibility reviews.

Track SUNB alongside its peers on our Live Charts, check upcoming macro events on the Economic Calendar, and discuss this research in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 10 July 2026

Verisk Analytics is a data-analytics company built almost entirely around one industry: property and casualty insurance. It sells the rating models, catastrophe simulations, loss-cost tables, claims-estimating tools and anti-fraud data that insurers rely on to price policies and settle claims. Most of that revenue is subscription-based and renews year after year, giving Verisk software-like margins — adjusted EBITDA margins run around 56%. After selling off its financial-services and energy businesses in 2022–2023 to become a pure-play insurance data firm, Verisk grew fiscal 2025 revenue 6.6% to $3.07bn. Yet the shares have fallen roughly 38% from their 52-week high as revenue growth decelerated to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2026. This report examines the numbers, the valuation and the risks.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Ticker / Exchange	VRSK (Nasdaq)
Sector	Industrials — Professional Services (insurance data & analytics)
CEO	Lee M. Shavel
CFO	Elizabeth Mann
Headquarters	Jersey City, New Jersey, USA
Market cap	~$25.0bn (Jul 2026)
Revenue (FY2025)	$3.073bn (+6.6% YoY)
Net income (FY2025)	$908m
GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025)	$6.48 (adjusted $7.16)
Employees	~7,000
Dividend	$0.50 per quarter ($2.00 annualised), raised 11% in 2026

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Recurring, mission-critical data: The bulk of Verisk's revenue is subscription-based and deeply embedded in insurers' underwriting and claims workflows, giving very high renewal rates and pricing power.
• Software-like margins: Adjusted EBITDA margins of roughly 56% and strong free cash flow ($1.19bn in FY2025) reflect the scalability of a data business with low incremental cost.
• Focused pure-play: After divesting financial services and energy, Verisk is a clean insurance-data franchise with a dominant position in US property and casualty rating and claims data.
• Aggressive capital returns: Verisk executed a $1.5bn accelerated share repurchase in Q1 2026 and raised its dividend 11%, signalling management confidence and shrinking the share count.

Bear Case

• Growth is decelerating: Revenue growth slowed to 3.9% year over year in Q1 2026 (4.7% organic constant currency), well below the high-single-digit pace investors had paid a premium for.
• Still not cheap: Even after a ~38% fall from its high, the stock trades near 27x adjusted earnings and around 25x forward earnings — a full multiple for mid-single-digit growth.
• Single-industry concentration: Verisk's fortunes are tied almost entirely to the health and IT budgets of the P&C insurance industry; a downturn or in-sourcing shift there hits the whole business.
• De-rating momentum: The shares have fallen sharply from $307.91 to around $191, and short interest has risen to nearly 7% of float — the market is repricing the growth story.

3. Business Segments

Verisk now reports as a single Insurance segment, split into two revenue categories:

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Underwriting	~71% (~$2.18bn FY2025)	Forms, rules and loss-cost services, catastrophe and risk modelling, plus life and specialty business solutions. Grew ~7.7% in FY2025.
Claims	~29% (~$0.89bn FY2025)	Property-estimating solutions and anti-fraud analytics used to process and settle claims. Roughly flat in FY2025.

4. How It Makes Money

Subscriptions, not one-off sales. The core of Verisk's model is long-term subscription and transactional contracts with insurers who plug its data and models directly into their pricing and claims systems. Because switching would mean re-engineering core underwriting processes, renewal rates are high and revenue is highly visible year to year.

Data as a compounding asset. Verisk's advantage is the depth of its historical loss and policy datasets, which it enriches over decades. New products — catastrophe models, anti-fraud tools, life-insurance analytics — are built on the same underlying data, so incremental margins are high and the moat widens as the dataset grows.

Cash returned to owners. With modest capital needs, Verisk converts most of its profit into free cash flow and returns it via buybacks and a growing dividend, including a $1.5bn accelerated repurchase and an 11% dividend increase in 2026.

5. Financial Health

All figures below come from Verisk's audited annual reports and quarterly earnings releases (SEC filings). GAAP EPS in 2022 and 2024 was inflated by one-off gains on the sale of divested businesses, so adjusted EPS gives a cleaner view of the underlying trend.

Fiscal Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
2021	$2.463bn	—	$4.08	n/a	—	—
2022	$2.497bn	+1.4%	$6.00¹	n/a	—	$3.744bn
2023	$2.681bn	+7.4%	$4.17	n/a	—	$2.884bn
2024	$2.882bn	+7.5%	$6.71¹	$6.64²	$1.56	$3.091bn
2025	$3.073bn	+6.6%	$6.48	$7.16	$1.80	$4.774bn

¹ 2022 and 2024 GAAP EPS were boosted by gains on the sale of divested businesses. ² 2024 adjusted EPS implied from the +7.8% growth to the 2025 figure of $7.16.

Quarter	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	$783.0m	$1.82	$1.73
Q4 2025	$779m	$1.82	$1.42
Q3 2025	$768m	$1.72	$1.61
Q2 2025	$773m	$1.88	$1.81
Q1 2025	$753m	$1.73	$1.65
FY 2025 total	$3,073m	$7.16	$6.48

Balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025: total debt $4.77bn against cash of $2.18bn (the company raised debt and held cash ahead of buybacks). Operating cash flow was $1.44bn in FY2025 and free cash flow $1.19bn (operating CF $1.436bn less capex $0.244bn).

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$25.0bn (Jul 2026; price ~$191, 131.0m shares)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~29x (price $191.04 / FY2025 GAAP EPS $6.48); ~27x on adjusted EPS $7.16
P/E (forward)	~25x (price $191.04 / FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint ~$7.60)
P/S (TTM)	~8x (market cap ~$25.0bn / trailing-12-month revenue ~$3.10bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~17x (EV ~$27.6bn / GAAP EBITDA ~$1.60bn = operating income $1.344bn + D&A $0.259bn); ~16x on adjusted EBITDA $1.73bn
P/FCF	~21x (market cap ~$25.0bn / FCF $1.19bn; FCF = operating CF $1.436bn − capex $0.244bn per FY2025 cash flow statement)
Enterprise value	~$27.6bn (market cap ~$25.0bn + total debt $4.77bn − cash $2.18bn per FY2025 balance sheet)
52-week high	$307.91
52-week low	$155.94
Short interest (% of float)	~6.8% of float
Days to cover	~4.3 days

7. What Are They Building

Verisk's growth agenda centres on extending its data franchise into faster-growing adjacencies and layering analytics on top of its core datasets. Recent bolt-on acquisitions — SuranceBay in the underwriting category and AccuLynx in claims — expand its reach into life-insurance distribution and contractor claims workflows. Management is also weaving generative-AI tooling into its products to help insurers extract insight from unstructured claims and policy documents.

The second theme is catastrophe and climate risk. As extreme-weather losses mount, Verisk's catastrophe-modelling and risk-scoring products become more valuable to insurers repricing exposure, and the company continues to invest in higher-resolution models. You can follow the broader market backdrop on the ChartsView Live Charts page and the Economic Calendar.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (Jul 2026)	Key 2025 metric
S&P Global (SPGI)	~$127.5bn	Broadest data peer — ratings, indices and market intelligence
Moody's (MCO)	~$95.7bn	FY2025 revenue $7.72bn (+8.9%); ratings and analytics
Fair Isaac (FICO)	~$29.5bn	FY2025 revenue $1.99bn (+16%); FICO credit scores and decisioning

9. Insider Activity

Recent Form 4 filings show routine director option-exercise sales and small officer disposals under trading plans; directors also receive quarterly equity retainers. No open-market accumulation by chief executive Lee M. Shavel or other insiders was disclosed.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Samuel G. Liss (Director)	05 Jun 2026	Sale	4,671	~$182.21	~$0.85m	Open market
Samuel G. Liss (Director)	02 Jun 2026	Option exercise & sale	6,765	~$177.63	~$1.20m	Exercise/sell
Elizabeth Mann (CFO)	Apr 2026	Sale	400	~$159.22	~$0.06m	10b5-1 plan
Sabra R. Purtill (Director)	Q2 2026	Equity award grant	163	$0.00	—	Board retainer

10. Key Risks

• Growth deceleration: Q1 2026 revenue rose just 3.9% year over year; if organic growth stays in the mid-single digits, the premium multiple is hard to justify.
• Customer concentration: Verisk depends almost entirely on the P&C insurance industry; consolidation, budget cuts or a decision by large insurers to build in-house would hit revenue directly.
• Valuation risk: Even after a steep de-rating the shares trade at a full multiple, leaving limited margin for error on execution.
• Regulatory and data risk: As a large holder of insurance and consumer data, Verisk faces evolving privacy, antitrust and data-use regulation that could raise costs or limit products.
• Leverage rose in 2025: Total debt increased to $4.77bn to fund buybacks; higher interest costs reduce flexibility if cash generation slows.
• Competition and disruption: Larger data peers and AI-native entrants could erode pricing power in parts of the underwriting and claims stack.

11. Recent Developments

• 29 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results. Revenue of $783.0m (+3.9% YoY, +4.7% organic constant currency) and adjusted EPS of $1.82 beat consensus; the company executed a $1.5bn accelerated share repurchase and reaffirmed full-year guidance.
• 27 Apr 2026 — Dividend raised 11%. The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share, up from $0.45, taking the annualised payout to $2.00.
• 18 Feb 2026 — FY2025 results. Full-year revenue of $3.073bn (+6.6%), adjusted EPS of $7.16 (+7.8%) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.727bn (+9.6%), with free cash flow up nearly 30%.
• 2025 — Bolt-on acquisitions. Verisk added SuranceBay (life-insurance distribution) to underwriting and agreed to acquire AccuLynx (contractor claims software) to expand its claims offering.

12. Key Dates

• 29 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings release (before market open)
• Expected 28 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings release
• Expected 30 Sep 2026 — next quarterly dividend payment ($0.50 per share)

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 6 July 2026

Roper Technologies (NASDAQ: ROP) is the Sarasota, Florida holding company that acquires and operates asset-light, mission-critical software and technology businesses serving defensible niche markets — from construction and government project software (Deltek) to healthcare data (Strata, CliniSys), transportation and utilities. It runs a disciplined, cash-compounding acquisition model: redeploy prodigious free cash flow into high-return vertical-software businesses. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 12% to $7.90bn, yet the shares have fallen roughly 40% from their 2025 highs after cautious 2026 guidance. This research reviews the numbers, the valuation and the risks. For live price action see our Live Charts, and check the Economic Calendar for events that move the market.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	Roper Technologies, Inc.
Ticker / Exchange	ROP / NASDAQ
Headquarters	Sarasota, Florida, USA (founded 1981)
Sector	Industrials — diversified vertical-market software and technology-enabled products
CEO / Leadership	Laurence Neil Hunn, President and Chief Executive Officer
Employees	~19,000
Market cap	~$38bn (3 Jul 2026, ~104.6m shares × ~$365)
Revenue, FY2025	$7.90bn (year ended 31 Dec 2025), +12% year on year
Net income, FY2025	$1.54bn GAAP; $2.16bn adjusted
Dividend	$0.91 per quarter for 2026 ($3.64 annualised, ~1.0% yield), raised ~10% from $0.825; more than 30 consecutive years of dividend increases
Fiscal year end	31 December

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• A proven cash-compounding machine: Roper deployed $3.3bn on acquisitions in 2025 and converts the majority of EBITDA into free cash flow ($2.47bn in FY2025), which it redeploys into asset-light, high-return vertical-software businesses — a model that has compounded value for three decades.
• High-quality recurring revenue: The Application and Network Software segments (together ~77% of revenue) are dominated by sticky, recurring software with segment operating margins of 27–44%, giving Roper defensive, subscription-like economics.
• Strong cash conversion and profitability: FY2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to $3.14bn and free cash flow rose 8% to $2.47bn, funding acquisitions, a growing dividend and buybacks simultaneously.
• Meaningful de-rating: After a roughly 40% fall from its highs, ROP trades at about 16.6x management's FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance — a marked discount to the premium multiple it historically commanded.
• Insider conviction and raised guidance: CEO Neil Hunn bought $4.5m of stock in the open market in November 2025, and management raised its full-year 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance at the Q1 print in April 2026.

Bear Case

• Cautious 2026 outlook from three businesses: The January 2026 guidance disappointment traced to Deltek (federal-spending uncertainty), Neptune (post-COVID water-meter normalisation and tariffs) and Procare (delayed software/payments rollouts) — a reminder that even a diversified portfolio has soft spots.
• GAAP earnings dwarfed by amortisation: Heavy amortisation of acquired intangibles ($858m in 2025) means GAAP EPS of $14.20 is far below adjusted EPS of $20.00, and GAAP net income was flat to slightly down despite 12% revenue growth.
• Rising leverage: Total debt climbed to $9.3bn (from $7.6bn) after the 2025 deal spree, and net interest expense rose to $325m — the acquisition model depends on continued access to cheap capital.
• Modest organic growth: Organic revenue growth is only around 5–6%; the headline double-digit growth relies on continuous M&A executed at sensible prices.
• Still not cheap on GAAP: Even after the fall, ROP trades around 25x trailing GAAP earnings, leaving little room for execution missteps.

3. Business Segments

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Application Software	~57% (FY2025: $4,483m)	Vertical-market software run day-to-day by customers — Deltek, Aderant, PowerPlan, Vertafore, Strata, CBORD, Procare and others; 26.8% segment operating margin
Network Software	~20% (FY2025: $1,601m)	Network/marketplace and data software connecting communities of users — DAT, Foundry, MHA, ConstructConnect, iPipeline; the highest-margin segment at 43.5%
Technology Enabled Products	~23% (FY2025: $1,819m)	Software-driven measurement and hardware — Neptune water meters, Verathon, Northern Digital, IPA medical products; 33.5% segment operating margin

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Roper is a decentralised holding company. It buys businesses that lead small, defensible niches — usually software with high recurring revenue and low capital intensity — leaves their management teams in place, and channels the cash they generate to headquarters for redeployment into the next acquisition. Roughly three-quarters of revenue is software, much of it subscription or maintenance-based.

Unit economics. The model is deliberately asset-light: FY2025 capital expenditure was just $66m (plus $45m of capitalised software) on $7.90bn of revenue, so almost all EBITDA converts to cash. Group operating income was $2.24bn and adjusted EBITDA $3.14bn (a ~40% margin), producing $2.47bn of free cash flow.

The moat. Two layers. At the operating-company level, each business is embedded in mission-critical workflows (legal time-and-billing, government project accounting, insurance distribution, utility billing) with high switching costs and durable niche leadership. At the group level, the moat is the capital-allocation engine itself: a disciplined, process-driven acquisition and cash-redeployment machine refined over decades and hard for others to replicate at scale.

Capital allocation. The entire strategy is capital allocation. In FY2025 Roper deployed $3.3bn on acquisitions, repurchased $500m of stock and paid $355m of dividends. It funds this with internal free cash flow supplemented by debt (total debt $9.3bn against $0.3bn of cash), and has raised its dividend for more than 30 consecutive years.

5. Financial Health

All figures from Roper's earnings releases and SEC filings (10-K/10-Q, US GAAP; fiscal years end 31 December, presented on a continuing-operations basis after the 2021–22 portfolio reshaping). Adjusted EPS is the company's non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS (DEPS).

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE, $m)
FY2021	4,833.8	—¹	7.56	12.39	$2.25	7,921.8
FY2022	5,371.8	+11%	9.23	14.28	$2.45	6,661.7
FY2023	6,177.8	+15%	12.74	16.71	$2.73	6,330.1
FY2024	7,039.2	+14%	14.35	18.31	$3.00	7,623.0
FY2025	7,902.5	+12%	14.20	20.00	$3.30	9,301.0

¹ FY2021 figures reflect continuing operations after Roper's major 2021–22 portfolio reshaping (including the sale of TransCore and the majority of its industrial/process businesses), so a like-for-like 2020 comparison is not meaningful. Long-term debt is the sum of the current portion and the non-current portion of long-term debt, net.

Quarter	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026 (Mar 2026)	2,095.3	5.16	4.87
Q4 2025 (Dec 2025)	2,058.6	5.21	3.97
Q3 2025 (Sep 2025)	2,017.5	5.14	3.68
Q2 2025 (Jun 2025)	1,943.6	4.87	3.49
Q1 2025 (Mar 2025)	1,882.8	4.78	3.06
FY2025 total	7,902.5	20.00	14.20

Balance-sheet and cash-flow picture: at 31 December 2025 Roper held $297m of cash against total debt of $9.30bn ($8.60bn long-term plus $0.71bn current) — net debt of roughly $9.0bn, about 2.9x adjusted EBITDA, reflecting the $3.3bn of 2025 acquisitions. FY2025 operating cash flow was around $2.58bn against just $66m of capex and $45m of capitalised software, giving free cash flow of $2.47bn (up 8%). Amortisation of acquired intangibles was $858m — the main bridge between GAAP net income ($1.54bn) and adjusted net income ($2.16bn).

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$38bn (~104.6m shares × ~$365, 3 Jul 2026)
Enterprise value	~$47bn (market cap ~$38bn + total debt ~$9.3bn − cash ~$0.3bn, per 31 Dec 2025 balance sheet)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~25.7x (~$365 / FY2025 GAAP EPS $14.20; ~22.8x on TTM GAAP EPS ~$16.01) — depressed by ~$858m of annual acquired-intangible amortisation
P/E (forward)	~16.6x on management's FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance of $21.80–$22.05 (company guidance, not an analyst estimate)
P/S (TTM)	~4.7x (market cap ~$38bn / TTM revenue ~$8.1bn)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~15.0x (EV ~$47bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$3.13bn; EBITDA = operating income $2,235m + D&A $898m per FY2025 filings, equal to the company's reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.14bn)
P/FCF	~15.4x (market cap ~$38bn / FY2025 free cash flow $2.47bn; FCF = operating cash flow ~$2.58bn − capex $66m − capitalised software $45m)
52-week high	$575.77
52-week low	$305.96
Short interest (% of float)	~2.1% (~2.22m shares short, mid-2026)
Days to cover	~2

7. Growth Drivers

Four engines matter from here. First and foremost, capital deployment: Roper enters each year with roughly $3–5bn of firepower (free cash flow plus debt capacity) to acquire vertical-software businesses, and management has repeatedly said its pipeline of actionable deals is strong — the single biggest driver of long-term value creation. Second, organic software growth: the recurring-revenue base compounds at mid-single digits through price increases, seat expansion and cross-sell, with newer platforms (Deltek, Vertafore, Strata, CentralReach, Transact Campus) still ramping. Third, margin and cash-conversion durability: the asset-light mix keeps free-cash-flow conversion high, feeding the flywheel. Fourth, the healthcare and government-software verticals — data, compliance and payments platforms — offer structural tailwinds once the near-term federal-spending and implementation headwinds at Deltek and Procare normalise. Management's FY2026 framework points to roughly 8% total revenue growth, 5–6% organic, and adjusted EPS of $21.80–$22.05.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (Jul 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Constellation Software (TSX: CSU / OTC: CNSWF)	~$45bn	Vertical-market software serial acquirer — the closest business-model comparator
Amphenol (NYSE: APH)	~$202bn	Interconnect and sensor systems — larger diversified industrial-technology compounder
Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ: VRSK)	~$22.9bn	Insurance data and analytics software — recurring-revenue comparator
Fortive (NYSE: FTV)	~$18.6bn	Industrial technology; asset-light software and instrumentation portfolio
Danaher (NYSE: DHR)	~$140bn	Originator of the disciplined-acquisition operating model Roper adapted

9. Insider Activity

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Laurence Neil Hunn (President & CEO)	12 Nov 2025	Purchase (open market)	10,000	~$452	~$4.52m	Discretionary open-market buy

The CEO's November 2025 open-market purchase of $4.5m of stock during the sell-off is a discretionary, conviction-signalling buy rather than routine vesting. Separately, Mr Hunn received a scheduled annual grant of 67,495 stock options at a $353.87 exercise price on 10 March 2026 as part of ordinary compensation. Beyond these, no other material insider buying or selling has been disclosed in recent months.

10. Key Risks

• Acquisition-execution risk (Strategic): Roper's growth depends on continually finding, pricing and integrating good businesses; a scarcity of reasonably priced deals, or a poorly performing large acquisition, would slow the compounding engine.
• Leverage and interest cost (Financial): Total debt of $9.3bn (about 2.9x adjusted EBITDA) and $325m of annual net interest expense make the model sensitive to credit availability and rates; an aggressive deal year could push leverage higher.
• Federal-spending exposure (Macro): Deltek serves government contractors, and 2025–26 federal budget uncertainty and DOGE-related disruption weighed on that business — a headwind that could persist.
• Organic-growth dependence (Operational): With organic growth only 5–6%, weakness across several operating companies at once (as seen at Deltek, Neptune and Procare) can meaningfully dent group results and sentiment.
• Valuation and de-rating risk (Financial): Even after a ~40% fall the shares carry a premium GAAP multiple; further multiple compression or an earnings disappointment would pressure the price.
• Goodwill and intangible impairment (Operational): The balance sheet carries very large goodwill and intangibles from decades of deals; underperformance at acquired businesses could trigger impairments.

11. Recent Developments

• 12 Nov 2025 — CEO open-market purchase. President and CEO Neil Hunn bought 10,000 shares for roughly $4.52m (~$452/share) amid the share-price weakness, a notable insider conviction signal.
• 27 Jan 2026 — FY2025 results and cautious 2026 guidance. Revenue rose 12% to $7.90bn and adjusted EPS 9% to $20.00, but initial FY2026 guidance (~8% growth, adjusted EPS $21.30–$21.55) landed below expectations, with softness flagged at Deltek, Neptune and Procare; the shares sold off sharply.
• 10 Mar 2026 — Annual equity grant. The CEO received a scheduled grant of 67,495 stock options at a $353.87 exercise price as part of ordinary compensation.
• 23 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 beat and raised guidance. Revenue grew 11% to $2.10bn with 6% organic growth and adjusted EPS of $5.16; management raised full-year 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance to $21.80–$22.05, though the stock saw a "sell-the-news" reaction.
• Jun 2026 — Continued weakness. Despite the operational beat, one-year total shareholder return remained down roughly 42% as investors weighed the cautious growth outlook against the de-rated valuation.

12. Key Dates

• 08 Jul 2026 — Ex-dividend date for the quarterly cash dividend (~$0.91 per share)
• 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results (scheduled, before US market open; earnings call 8:00am ET)
• 22 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results expected (estimated; prior-year cadence: reported 23 Oct 2025)

Roper typically raises its dividend each November with the new rate paid from the following January. Discuss ROP with other members on the ChartsView Forum, and track industrial and software-sector catalysts on our Economic Calendar.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 4 July 2026

PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ: PCAR) is a global technology leader in the design, manufacture and customer support of premium light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF nameplates. The Bellevue, Washington company also runs a large aftermarket parts business and a captive finance arm, and 2025 marked its 87th consecutive year of net income — through one of the sharper truck-cycle downturns in recent memory. This report presents the facts from primary sources — company press releases, SEC filings and official data — with no analyst opinions.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	PACCAR Inc
Ticker / Exchange	PCAR / NASDAQ
Sector	Industrials — heavy-duty truck manufacturing, parts and financial services
Headquarters	Bellevue, Washington, USA
CEO	Preston Feight (Chief Executive Officer); Mark Pigott is Executive Chairman
Employees	~25,900 (31 Dec 2025; ~40% in the US)
Brands	Kenworth, Peterbilt, DAF; PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial, PACCAR Powertrain
Revenue (FY2025)	$28,444.8m (−15.5%)
Net income (FY2025)	$2,375.8m GAAP; adjusted net income $2,644m (excluding EU litigation charge)
Market cap	~$62.8bn (2 Jul 2026, at $119.49)
Dividend	$0.35/quarter (raised Apr 2026) plus year-end extra dividend ($1.40 paid Jan 2026)
Fiscal year end	31 December

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Premium truck franchise: Kenworth and Peterbilt held a 30% share of US and Canada Class 8 retail sales in 2025, and DAF's XD and XF Electric won International Truck of the Year 2026; 2025 was PACCAR's 87th consecutive profitable year.
• Resilient aftermarket engine: PACCAR Parts delivered record 2025 revenue of $6.87bn and $1.67bn of pretax income — high-margin, counter-cyclical profits that cushion truck-cycle troughs.
• Fortress balance sheet: $9.5bn of cash and marketable securities at year-end 2025 with essentially no manufacturing debt; borrowings sit in the captive finance arm against a $22.8bn asset portfolio.
• Cycle recovery setup: Q1 2026 net income rose 19.8% to $605.3m with gross margin up to 13.1%; management cites tariff and EPA27 emissions clarity plus improving freight fundamentals, and guided 2026 US/Canada Class 8 industry sales of 230,000–270,000 trucks.
• Tariff positioning: PACCAR builds trucks in the US, Canada and Mexico for local markets, minimising costs under the Section 232 truck tariffs that took effect in November 2025.

Bear Case

• Deep cyclicality: Revenue fell 15.5% in 2025 after a 4.2% decline in 2024, and Q1 2026 revenue was still down 8.9% year-on-year; GAAP EPS nearly halved from the 2023 peak ($8.76 to $4.51).
• Margin pressure: Company gross margin of ~13% remains well below the 2023 cycle peak; weak used-truck prices and competitive pricing cap near-term recovery.
• EU litigation overhang: A $264.5m after-tax non-recurring charge for European civil litigation hit 2025 results, and related claims may not be fully resolved.
• Captive finance risk: PACCAR Financial's $22.8bn portfolio carries credit and residual-value risk; a freight recession or falling used-truck values would pressure PFS earnings.
• EV transition cost: Battery-electric and autonomous truck programmes require sustained R&D and capital investment ($1.17bn combined in 2025) with uncertain adoption timing.

3. Business Segments

Segment shares below are FY2025, from PACCAR's 2025 Annual Report (Form 10-K).

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Truck	~68% (~$19.3bn)	Design, manufacture and sale of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks; 144,200 vehicles delivered worldwide in 2025
Parts	~24% ($6,870m)	Aftermarket parts distribution through 21 global distribution centres, 2,000+ dealers and 350+ TRP stores; record revenue in 2025
Financial Services	~8% (~$2,240m)	PACCAR Financial — retail loans and leases for trucks, dealer financing and PacLease; $22.8bn of assets and $485.4m pretax income in 2025

4. Business Model

How PACCAR makes money. PACCAR sells premium trucks through independent Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers, monetises the installed fleet through high-margin aftermarket parts (sold via dealers and TRP stores), and finances truck purchases through PACCAR Financial, which earns a spread on its $22.8bn loan and lease portfolio. Truck revenue is cyclical; Parts and Financial Services provide foundational profitability through all phases of the cycle — in 2025, Parts alone generated $1.67bn of pretax income while truck deliveries fell.

Unit economics. The premium positioning of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF supports above-industry pricing, and vertical integration in powertrains (PACCAR MX engines) captures more value per vehicle. After-tax return on revenues was 8.4% in 2025 even at the cycle trough. Capital investments of $743.0m plus R&D of $445.5m in 2025 fund new models, robotic manufacturing and battery-electric programmes.

Moat. Brand strength and residual values, a dealer network exceeding 2,300 points of sale and service, captive financing, and 87 consecutive profitable years evidence a durable franchise. The dividend policy targets roughly 50% of net income paid out via regular and year-end extra dividends.

5. Financial Health

All figures from PACCAR earnings press releases and SEC filings (calendar fiscal years). Per-share figures are adjusted for the 50% stock dividend distributed in February 2023.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE, $m)
2021	$23,522.3m	+25.6%	$3.57	$3.57¹	$1.89²	$7,128.8m³
2022	$28,819.7m	+22.5%	$5.75	$5.75¹	$2.80	$7,866.7m³
2023	$35,127.4m	+21.9%	$8.76	$8.76¹	$4.24	$8,624.6m³
2024	$33,663.8m	−4.2%	$7.90	$7.90¹	$4.17	$9,891.2m³
2025	$28,444.8m	−15.5%	$4.51	$5.01	$2.72	$10,646.8m³

¹ PACCAR reported no non-GAAP adjustments in 2021–2024; adjusted EPS equals GAAP EPS. 2025 adjusted EPS excludes the $264.5m after-tax European civil litigation charge. ² Dividends declared in 2021 were $2.84 per pre-split share, shown here adjusted for the February 2023 50% stock dividend. ³ Long-term debt is PACCAR Financial Services term notes; the truck and parts (manufacturing) business carries no long-term debt.

Quarter	Revenue ($m)	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	$6,780m	$1.15	$1.15
Q4 2025	$6,820m	$1.06	$1.06
Q3 2025	$6,670m	$1.12	$1.12
Q2 2025	$7,510m	$1.37	$1.37
Q1 2025	$7,440m	$1.46	$0.96
FY2025 total	$28,444.8m	$5.01	$4.51

At 31 December 2025 PACCAR held $6,307.9m of cash and equivalents plus $3,207.7m of marketable securities. Financial Services borrowings comprised $4,989.5m of commercial paper and bank loans and $10,646.8m of term notes. FY2025 cash provided by operations was $4,415.8m, capital expenditure (property, plant and equipment) $743.0m, and depreciation and amortisation totalled ~$1,225.6m ($398.2m on PP&E plus $827.4m on operating-lease equipment and other). Dividends declared in 2025 totalled $1.43bn.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$62.8bn (2 Jul 2026, at $119.49)
Enterprise value	~$68.9bn (market cap ~$62.8bn + total borrowings $15,636.3m − cash and marketable securities $9,515.6m per 31 Dec 2025 balance sheet; note that effectively all debt funds the PACCAR Financial portfolio)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~25.4x ($119.49 / TTM GAAP EPS ~$4.70 to Q1 2026; ~26.5x on FY2025 EPS $4.51)
P/E (forward)	n/a — PACCAR does not issue EPS guidance
P/S (TTM)	~2.3x (market cap ~$62.8bn / TTM revenue ~$27.8bn to Q1 2026)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~16.2x (EV ~$68.9bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$4,249m; EBITDA = pretax income $3,023.5m + D&A $1,225.6m — consolidated basis including Financial Services)
P/FCF	~17.1x (market cap ~$62.8bn / FY2025 FCF ~$3,672.8m; FCF = operating cash flow $4,415.8m − capex $743.0m per FY2025 cash flow statement)
52-week high	$131.88
52-week low	$92.25
Short interest (% of float)	~2.1% (~11.2m shares short; MarketBeat/StockAnalysis, June 2026)
Days to cover	~3.3 (recent average daily volume)

7. What Are They Building

PACCAR invested $743.0m in capital projects and $445.5m in R&D during 2025, focused on next-generation clean powertrains, battery-electric trucks and advanced manufacturing. Kenworth and Peterbilt introduced next-generation battery-electric trucks in 2025, while DAF's XD and XF Electric models won International Truck of the Year 2026 for their energy efficiency, range and battery technology. In the first quarter of 2026 DAF introduced the new XG and XG+ Electric long-haul trucks and Kenworth unveiled the vocational C580 at CONEXPO.

On the manufacturing side, Kenworth is constructing a 46,000 sq. ft. robotic chassis paint facility in Chillicothe, Ohio, and PACCAR built a 50,000 sq. ft. engine remanufacturing facility in Mississippi. PACCAR Parts opened a new 180,000 sq. ft. distribution centre in Calgary, Canada — its 21st global PDC. The company is also embedding AI across its business, and its powertrain roadmap is aligned with the EPA's re-affirmed EPA27 NOx limit of 35 milligrams, which management says provides buying-decision clarity for customers.

8. Competitive Landscape

PACCAR competes globally in heavy- and medium-duty trucks and engines. Market caps are as of the dates shown; each metric is from the peer's own reported results.

Peer	Market cap (Month Year)	Key 2025 metric
Volvo Group (STO: VOLV-B)	~$68.7bn (Jun 2026)	2025 net sales SEK 479.2bn (~€43bn), adjusted operating margin 10.7%
Daimler Truck (ETR: DTG)	~$35.4bn (May 2026)	2025 industrial revenue €45.9bn; adjusted EBIT €3,778m
Cummins (NYSE: CMI)	~$91.0bn (Jun 2026)	2025 revenue $33.7bn (−1%); EBITDA 16.0% of sales

Kenworth and Peterbilt's combined 30% US/Canada Class 8 retail share in 2025 puts PACCAR head-to-head with Daimler Truck's Freightliner (the segment leader), Volvo/Mack, and Traton's International. In Europe, DAF competes with Volvo/Renault Trucks, Mercedes-Benz Trucks, Scania and MAN. Cummins is both a competitor to and supplier alongside PACCAR's own MX engine line.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Preston Feight is Chief Executive Officer and Mark Pigott is Executive Chairman. Recent SEC Form 4 filings (May–June 2026) show only routine dividend reinvestments through the PACCAR Savings Investment Plan — CEO Preston Feight (53.7 shares at $114.38 on 5 Jun 2026), Executive Chairman Mark Pigott (533.7 shares), general counsel Michael Walton and CTO John Rich all filed similar SIP entries.

There were no material insider open-market purchases or sales reported in the past quarter — no material insider transactions beyond automatic plan activity. Sources: SEC Form 4 filings via EDGAR/StockTitan, July 2026.

10. Key Risks

• Truck-cycle downturn (Macro): Class 8 demand is deeply cyclical — PACCAR revenue fell 15.5% in 2025 and Q1 2026 was still down 8.9% year-on-year; a freight recession would delay the recovery management expects in 2026.
• Tariffs and trade policy (Regulatory): Section 232 truck tariffs took effect in November 2025; while PACCAR's local-production footprint minimises exposure, supply-chain cost inflation and retaliatory measures remain risks.
• European litigation (Legal): PACCAR took a $264.5m after-tax charge in 2025 for EU civil litigation tied to the historic trucks cartel case; further claims could bring additional charges.
• Captive finance credit and residual values (Financial): PACCAR Financial's $22.8bn portfolio is exposed to customer defaults and used-truck price deflation, which also affects trade-in economics for new truck sales.
• Emissions regulation and EV transition (Regulatory): EPA27 NOx compliance, EU CO2 targets and the shift to battery-electric powertrains require heavy investment with uncertain customer adoption rates.
• Competition (Competitive): Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, Traton and emerging EV entrants compete on price, technology and total cost of ownership in every major market.

11. Recent Developments

• 28 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results: net income +19.8% to $605.3m. Revenue was $6.78bn (down 8.9% year-on-year) but gross margin improved to 13.1% from 12%, PACCAR Parts earned $402.3m pretax and PACCAR Financial $115.5m. Management guided Q2 gross margin to around 13.5% on higher global production and projected 2026 US/Canada Class 8 industry sales of 230,000–270,000 units.
• 28 Apr 2026 — Regular quarterly dividend raised 6% to $0.35 per share. The board lifted the quarterly payout from $0.33, payable 3 June 2026; PACCAR has paid out roughly 50% of net income in dividends for many years.
• 27 Jan 2026 — FY2025 results: 87th consecutive profitable year. Revenue was $28.44bn with net income of $2.38bn ($4.51/share) and adjusted net income of $2.64bn ($5.01/share) — the fourth best in company history — despite the $264.5m EU litigation charge. Record Parts revenue of $6.87bn and record Financial Services revenue were highlights.
• 1 Dec 2025 — DAF XD and XF Electric named International Truck of the Year 2026. The award, announced at the Solutrans exhibition in Lyon, was PACCAR's third International Truck of the Year honour in five years, recognising energy efficiency, range and battery technology.

12. Key Dates & Catalysts

• 28 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings release (before US market open), covering the June 2026 quarter
• Expected September 2026 — next regular quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share (PACCAR pays in March, June, September and December)
• Expected October 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings release
• Expected January 2027 — FY2026 results and declaration of the year-end extra cash dividend

Track PCAR alongside the wider market on our Live Charts, check upcoming macro events on the Economic Calendar, and discuss this research in the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 3 July 2026

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (Nasdaq: ODFL) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers, moving freight through a single integrated, union-free network of 260 service centres across the continental United States (per the FY2025 10-K). In FY2025 the company generated revenue of $5.50 billion, down 5.5% year over year, operating income of $1.36 billion at a 75.2% operating ratio, and diluted EPS of $4.84, per the Q4 2025 earnings release (4 February 2026). The stock trades at approximately $217.65 (2 July 2026) against a 52-week range of $126.01 to $252.03, and the next earnings report (Q2 2026) is scheduled for 29 July 2026, per the company's 1 July 2026 announcement. For live price action see our Live Charts page, and check the Economic Calendar for macro events that move the freight cycle. Discuss this research with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Name	Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Ticker / Exchange	ODFL / Nasdaq
Sector / Industry	Industrials / Trucking (less-than-truckload)
Market cap	~$45.0bn (2 July 2026, per StockTitan/Nasdaq data)
Enterprise value	~$44.8bn (market cap ~$45.0bn + total debt $40.0m - cash $288.1m, per 31 March 2026 balance sheet)
FY2025 revenue	$5,496.4m, down 5.5% (Q4 2025 earnings release, 4 February 2026)
FY2025 operating income	$1,361.0m, operating ratio 75.2% (Q4 2025 earnings release)
FY2025 net income / diluted EPS	$1,023.7m / $4.84 (Q4 2025 earnings release)
FY2025 free cash flow	~$985m (operating cash flow ~$1.4bn - capex $415.0m, per Q4 2025 earnings release)
Employees	20,264 average active full-time employees in Q1 2026 (Q1 2026 earnings release, 29 April 2026)
CEO	Kevin "Marty" Freeman, President and Chief Executive Officer
CFO	Adam N. Satterfield, EVP and Chief Financial Officer
Headquarters	Thomasville, North Carolina, USA
Website	www.odfl.com
Fiscal year-end	31 December
Next earnings	29 July 2026 (Q2 2026, confirmed 1 July 2026)
Dividend	$0.29 per share quarterly (raised 3.6% in February 2026); yield ~0.5%
52-week high / low	$252.03 / $126.01 (Yahoo Finance, early July 2026)
Short interest	5.56% of float; 4.99 days to cover (S&P Global data via stockanalysis.com, late June 2026)
Stock split note	2-for-1 forward split on 28 March 2024; historical per-share figures in this report are split-adjusted

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Industry-leading service and margins: ODFL again delivered 99% on-time service and a cargo claims ratio below 0.1% in Q1 2026, per the Q1 2026 earnings release (29 April 2026). Its FY2025 operating ratio of 75.2% remains, in management's words, industry-leading among public LTL carriers.
• Demand inflecting upward: Per the 3 June 2026 mid-quarter update, May 2026 LTL revenue per day rose 12.3% year over year, with quarter-to-date revenue per hundredweight up 15.6% (up 5.4% excluding fuel surcharges) - the first double-digit revenue-per-day growth after two down years.
• Fortress balance sheet: Total debt was just $40.0m against shareholders' equity of $4.40bn and cash of $288.1m at 31 March 2026, per the Q1 2026 earnings release - effectively a net-cash position that funds counter-cyclical investment.
• Disciplined yield management: LTL revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel rose 4.4% in Q1 2026 and 4.8% in FY2025 even as tonnage fell, per the Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 earnings releases, protecting profitability through the downturn.
• Consistent capital returns: FY2025 saw $730.3m of buybacks and $235.6m of dividends, and the quarterly dividend was raised 3.6% to $0.29 for 2026, per the Q4 2025 earnings release. Diluted share count fell 2.3% in FY2025.

Bear Case

• Two consecutive years of shrinking revenue: Revenue fell 5.5% in FY2025 after a 0.9% decline in FY2024, and Q1 2026 revenue was down another 2.9%, per company earnings releases - the freight recession has been longer than prior cycles.
• Volume still contracting: LTL tons per day fell 7.7% and shipments per day 7.9% in Q1 2026, per the Q1 2026 earnings release; May 2026 tons per day were still down 3.8% year over year per the 3 June 2026 update. Revenue growth is currently price-led, not volume-led.
• Margin deleverage: The operating ratio worsened 180 basis points to 75.2% in FY2025 and a further 80 basis points to 76.2% in Q1 2026 as overhead costs deleveraged on lower revenue, per company releases.
• Demanding valuation after a sharp re-rating: The shares trade at roughly 45x trailing GAAP earnings (S&P Global data, late June 2026) after a ~39% rise over 52 weeks - a growth multiple on a company whose EPS declined 11.7% in FY2025.
• Concentrated family ownership and union risk: The FY2025 10-K risk factors flag the concentration of stock ownership with the Congdon family and the potential negative impact of any unionisation of its union-free workforce.

3. What Does Old Dominion Actually Do?

Old Dominion is a less-than-truckload carrier: it consolidates shipments from multiple customers - typically 1,000 to 10,000 pounds each - onto shared trailers, moving them through a hub-and-spoke network of 260 service centres (per the FY2025 10-K). LTL is effectively all of the business, with a small tail of value-added services.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
LTL services	99.1% ($5,446.2m FY2025)	Regional, inter-regional and national less-than-truckload freight, including expedited transportation, moved through the company's own service-centre network. Per the Q4 2025 earnings release.
Other services	0.9% ($50.2m FY2025)	Value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage and supply chain consulting. Per the Q4 2025 earnings release.

The customer base is highly diversified - the largest customer represented about 4% of revenue in 2025, per the FY2025 10-K. Operations are concentrated in the continental United States, with LTL coverage across North America provided through strategic carrier alliances. In Q1 2026 the average length of haul was 913 miles and average weight per shipment 1,491 lbs, per the Q1 2026 earnings release.

4. The Business Model

Revenue model: ODFL's model is transactional freight priced per shipment, with pricing driven by weight, distance, freight class and fuel surcharges. Per the Q4 2025 earnings release, management describes a "disciplined, cost-based approach to pricing that is designed to offset our cost inflation over the long term" - the company targets consistent yield gains (revenue per hundredweight) rather than chasing volume with discounts.

Moat: The moat is service quality plus network density. Providing 99% on-time delivery and a sub-0.1% claims ratio (Q1 2026 earnings release) lets ODFL charge a fair-price premium, while its owned service-centre real estate - $4.47bn of net property and equipment at 31 March 2026 - creates capacity that is hard to replicate. The single integrated, union-free organisation keeps costs flexible, per the FY2025 10-K.

Unit economics: Salaries, wages and benefits were 47.9% of FY2025 revenue and depreciation 6.6%, per the Q4 2025 earnings release, so incremental volume on the existing network carries high incremental margins - the reason management keeps investing through downturns ($415.0m capex in FY2025, ~$265m planned for 2026).

5. Financial Health

Five-year annual trend (per company Q4 earnings releases and 10-K filings; per-share figures adjusted for the 2-for-1 split of March 2024; dividends shown are the sum of quarterly declared rates):

Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
2021	$5,256.3m	+30.9%	$4.45	- (GAAP-only reporter)	$0.40	$99.9m
2022	$6,260.1m	+19.1%	$6.09	- (GAAP-only reporter)	$0.60	$80.0m
2023	$5,866.2m	-6.3%	$5.63	- (GAAP-only reporter)	$0.80	$60.0m
2024	$5,814.8m	-0.9%	$5.48	- (GAAP-only reporter)	$1.04	$40.0m
2025	$5,496.4m	-5.5%	$4.84	- (GAAP-only reporter)	$1.12	$20.0m

Note: Old Dominion reports GAAP results only and does not publish adjusted EPS; the long-term debt column shows the non-current portion at year-end per company balance sheets (a further $20.0m is classified as current maturities at 31 December 2025).

Quarterly trend, most recent first (per company earnings releases; ODFL does not report adjusted EPS):

Quarter	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q1 2026	$1.33bn	-	$1.14
Q4 2025	$1.31bn	-	$1.09
Q3 2025	$1.41bn	-	$1.28
Q2 2025	$1.41bn	-	$1.27
Q1 2025	$1.37bn	-	$1.19
FY2025 total	$5.50bn	-	$4.84

Direction of travel: revenue has declined year over year for nine consecutive quarters through Q1 2026, but the rate of decline narrowed from -5.7% in Q4 2025 to -2.9% in Q1 2026, and May 2026 revenue per day turned positive at +12.3% per the 3 June 2026 update. Cash generation remains strong - $373.6m of operating cash flow in Q1 2026 against $62.6m of capex, per the Q1 2026 earnings release. Cash rose from $120.1m at year-end 2025 to $288.1m at 31 March 2026, while total debt is $40.0m.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Share price	$217.65 (2 July 2026)
Market cap	~$45.0bn (2 July 2026)
Enterprise value	~$44.8bn (market cap ~$45.0bn + total debt $40.0m - cash $288.1m, per the 31 March 2026 balance sheet in the Q1 2026 earnings release)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~45x ($217.65 / TTM diluted EPS of $4.79; TTM EPS = FY2025 $4.84 - Q1 2025 $1.19 + Q1 2026 $1.14, per company releases)
P/E (forward)	~38x (S&P Global consensus-based data via stockanalysis.com, late June 2026)
P/S (TTM)	~8.3x (S&P Global data, late June 2026)
P/B	~10.3x (equity $4.40bn at 31 March 2026)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~26x (EV ~$44.8bn / TTM EBITDA ~$1.71bn; EBITDA = TTM operating income $1,340.3m + TTM D&A $367.9m, both derived from FY2025 and Q1 2026/Q1 2025 earnings releases)
P/FCF	~46x on FY2025 (market cap ~$45.0bn / FY2025 FCF ~$985m; FCF = operating cash flow ~$1.4bn - capex $415.0m per the Q4 2025 earnings release). ~44x on a TTM basis (TTM FCF ~$1.02bn, S&P Global data)
52-week high	$252.03
52-week low	$126.01
Beta (5Y)	1.18
Average daily volume (20d)	~2.2m shares
Shares outstanding / float	208.0m / 186.3m
Short interest (% of float)	5.56% (mid-June 2026 settlement data via stockanalysis.com)
Days to cover	4.99
Dividend yield	~0.5% ($1.16 annualised)
ROE / ROA	23.3% / 15.0% (TTM, S&P Global data)
Debt-to-equity	0.01
Current ratio	1.57

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Old Dominion's 2026 investment plan totals approximately $265m of capital expenditures: $125m for real estate and service centre expansion projects, $95m for tractors and trailers, and $45m for information technology and other assets, per the Q1 2026 earnings release (29 April 2026). This is a deliberate step down from $415.0m in FY2025 and reflects capacity already built - management stated in the Q1 2026 release that the company "has all the necessary elements of capacity to effectively manage incremental volume opportunities".

The strategic focus, per the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases, remains consistent investments in the service-centre network, technology and people to win market share as demand recovers, rather than new business lines or M&A. The FY2025 10-K notes the company operated 260 service centres and 10,184 tractors at 31 December 2025. Value-added services (container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply chain consulting) remain a small complement to core LTL. No acquisitions were announced in the company's FY2025 or Q1 2026 releases.

8. Competitive Landscape

ODFL competes in the US LTL market against national and super-regional carriers. Its ~$45bn market value exceeds every pure-play LTL peer despite lower revenue than some, reflecting its margin lead (FY2025 operating ratio 75.2% per the Q4 2025 release).

Peer	Market cap (June/July 2026)	Key 2025 metric
XPO, Inc. (XPO)	~$24.3bn (2 June 2026, per MacroTrends/Yahoo data)	FY2025 revenue $8.2bn; adjusted EBITDA $1.3bn (per XPO Q4 2025 results)
Saia, Inc. (SAIA)	~$11.2bn (late June 2026, per Yahoo Finance)	FY2025 revenue $3.2bn, +0.8% YoY; diluted EPS $9.52 (per Saia Q4 2025 release)
TFI International (TFII)	~$11.9bn (24 June 2026, per stockanalysis.com)	TTM revenue ~$8.0bn across truckload, LTL and logistics (per TFI filings, January 2026)
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)	~$3.45bn (5 June 2026, per PitchBook data)	TTM revenue $4.04bn at 31 March 2026 (per ArcBest filings)
FedEx Corporation (FDX)	~$75.6bn (24 June 2026, per MacroTrends)	Parent of FedEx Freight, the largest US LTL carrier by revenue; FedEx announced plans to separate FedEx Freight into a standalone public company

All peer figures are drawn from the cited public sources; currencies are USD. TFI reports in USD but is Canadian-domiciled and spans more than LTL, so its figures are not directly comparable to pure-play LTL carriers.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Kevin "Marty" Freeman has been President and Chief Executive Officer since July 2023, having previously served as EVP and Chief Operating Officer; he has been with Old Dominion for over three decades. Adam N. Satterfield is EVP and Chief Financial Officer and has signed the company's earnings releases since 2016. David S. Congdon serves as Executive Chairman, with the founding Congdon family remaining significant shareholders - the FY2025 10-K lists the concentration of stock ownership with the Congdon family among its risk factors. Insider ownership is approximately 10.3% and institutional ownership approximately 80.1%, per S&P Global data via stockanalysis.com (late June 2026).

Recent insider transactions from SEC Form 4 filings in 2026:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
David S. Congdon (Exec Chairman, via revocable trust)	19 Feb 2026	Sale	42,000	$194.67 (wtd avg)	~$8.2m	Open market
David S. Congdon (via revocable trust)	19 Feb 2026	Sale	10,000	$195.17 (wtd avg)	~$2.0m	Open market
David S. Congdon (via trust)	23 Feb 2026	Gift	30,415	-	-	Bona fide gift
Earl E. Congdon (Chair Emeritus, via 1990 trust)	26 Feb 2026	Sale	25,000 (10,598 + 14,402)	$195.62 / $196.50 (wtd avg)	~$4.9m	Open market
Greg C. Gantt (Director, former CEO)	4 May 2026	Sale	22,107	~$190-193 (wtd avg range)	~$4.2m	Open market
Bradley R. Gabosch (SVP)	18 Feb 2026	Sale	3,134	$194.27 (wtd avg)	~$0.6m	Open market
Christopher J. Kelley (SVP Operations)	18 Feb 2026	Sale	80	$200.43	~$16k	401(k) plan account

Source: SEC Form 4 filings as summarised by StockTitan's SEC filing feed, February-May 2026.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Prolonged freight downturn (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 10-K risk factors, downturns in the domestic economy and customers' businesses can reduce demand; revenue has now fallen for two consecutive years (FY2024, FY2025 earnings releases).
• Pricing pressure from competitors (Competitive): The FY2025 10-K cites "the competitive environment with respect to our industry, including pricing pressures" - rivals adding capacity (XPO, Saia, FedEx Freight) could undermine ODFL's yield-first strategy.
• Diesel fuel and surcharge risk (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K, fluctuations in the availability and price of diesel and the effectiveness of fuel surcharges in recovering costs are a persistent earnings variable; the May 2026 update showed fuel effects widening the gap between headline (+15.6%) and ex-fuel (+5.4%) yield growth.
• Unionisation risk (Regulatory): The FY2025 10-K flags "the negative impact of any unionization, or the passage of legislation or regulations that could facilitate unionization" of its union-free workforce.
• Cyber incidents and IT failure (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 10-K, system failure, security breach, malware or ransomware affecting its technology or third-party providers could disrupt operations and incur costs.
• Insurance and claims costs (Financial): The FY2025 10-K cites exposure to cargo loss, property damage, personal injury, workers' compensation and healthcare claims, including higher self-insured retention levels and claims in excess of coverage.
• Severe weather and seasonality (Environmental & Weather): Per the FY2025 10-K, seasonal trends in LTL, harsh weather and disasters can reduce volumes and raise costs.
• Congdon family voting concentration (Concentration): The FY2025 10-K lists the concentration of stock ownership with the Congdon family as a risk to other shareholders' influence over corporate matters.
• Tariff and trade-policy shifts (Regulatory): The FY2025 10-K and Q1 2026 release cite changes in international trade policies, including tariffs, as a risk to customers' freight volumes and costs.

11. Recent Developments

• 02 Jul 2026 - Shares close at $217.65 ahead of Q2 print. ODFL enters the Q2 2026 report roughly 14% below its 52-week high of $252.03 after a strong year-to-date run. Source: StockTitan/Nasdaq market data.
• 01 Jul 2026 - Q2 2026 earnings date confirmed. Old Dominion will release Q2 2026 results before the open on Wednesday 29 July 2026, with a conference call at 10:00 a.m. ET the same day. Source: company press release.
• 01 Jul 2026 - Evercore upgrades ODFL. Evercore raised its rating on Old Dominion Freight Line, as reported by Markets Daily on 1 July 2026. Reported factually with attribution; not a ChartsView view. Source: The Markets Daily.
• 17 Jun 2026 - Quarterly dividend paid. The $0.29 per share quarterly cash dividend (raised 3.6% year over year) was paid to shareholders of record as of 3 June 2026. Source: company press release, 21 May 2026.
• 03 Jun 2026 - May operating metrics show revenue inflection. LTL revenue per day rose 12.3% year over year in May 2026, driven by higher revenue per hundredweight (+15.6% quarter-to-date, +5.4% ex-fuel), while tons per day fell 3.8% and shipments per day 5.3%. Source: company mid-quarter update.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 29 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 earnings release (before market open) and conference call at 10:00 a.m. ET. Confirmed by company press release, 1 July 2026.
• 02 Sep 2026 — Mid-quarter (August metrics) operating update expected (date indicative), based on the company's established cadence of monthly-metric releases in the first week of the quarter's final month (most recently 3 June 2026).
• 16 Sep 2026 — Next quarterly dividend payment expected (date indicative), subject to board declaration; the prior dividend was paid 17 June 2026 (company press release).
• 28 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings expected (date indicative), based on the company's historical reporting cadence (Q3 2025 was reported on 29 October 2025); date not yet confirmed by the company.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 19 June 2026

3M Company (NYSE: MMM) is a diversified industrial manufacturer that turns materials science into tens of thousands of products spanning abrasives, adhesives, films, filtration, electronics materials, personal safety equipment and consumer brands such as Post-it and Scotch. The St. Paul, Minnesota company is a very different business from the one investors knew a decade ago: it spun off its Health Care division (Solventum) in April 2024, settled multi-billion-dollar PFAS and Combat Arms Earplugs litigation, and is now executing an operational turnaround under Chairman and CEO William Brown. Fiscal 2025 (ended 31 December 2025) showed the early results of that reset — modest organic growth, sharp margin expansion and double-digit adjusted earnings growth — even as headline GAAP figures remained weighed down by ongoing litigation charges. This report walks through 3M's structure, finances and valuation using only its primary filings and current market data.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Company	3M Company
Ticker / Exchange	MMM / NYSE
Sector	Industrials (diversified manufacturing)
CEO	William M. Brown (Chairman & CEO)
Headquarters	St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
Employees	Approximately 61,000 (post-Solventum spin-off)
Revenue (FY2025, GAAP net sales)	$24.9 billion
Net income attributable to 3M (FY2025, continuing ops)	$3.25 billion
GAAP EPS (FY2025, continuing ops)	$6.00
Adjusted EPS (FY2025)	$8.06
Market capitalisation (Jun 2026)	Approximately $87 billion
Share price (17 Jun 2026)	$161.63
Shares outstanding	Approximately 538 million
Dividend per share (FY2025)	$2.92

2. Investment Thesis: Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

• Margin turnaround is real and ahead of plan: Adjusted operating margin expanded 200 basis points to 23.4% in FY2025, and management guides to a further 70–80 bps in 2026, evidence that the operating-model overhaul under William Brown is delivering.
• Double-digit adjusted earnings growth: Adjusted EPS rose 10% to $8.06 in FY2025, with 2026 guidance of $8.50–$8.70 implying continued growth despite a low-growth macro backdrop.
• Innovation and cash conversion restored: 3M returned to a faster pace of new-product introductions and generated $4.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow, supporting dividends and buybacks.
• Major legal overhangs are being quantified and paid down: The PFAS public-water-supplier and Combat Arms Earplugs settlements are now structured obligations rather than open-ended risks, removing some uncertainty even as cash payments continue.
• Diversification and pricing power: A portfolio spanning safety, industrial, electronics and consumer end-markets, much of it consumable and specified into customer processes, gives 3M resilient demand and recurring revenue.

Bear Case

• GAAP earnings still depressed by litigation: GAAP EPS fell 17% to $6.00 in FY2025 and operating cash flow was just $2.3 billion after $3.5 billion of litigation-related cash payments — the legal tail is real and ongoing.
• Anaemic organic growth: Full-year organic sales rose only 2.1% on an adjusted basis; the investment case rests heavily on margins and buybacks rather than top-line expansion.
• PFAS liability is not fully closed: 3M continues to face PFAS-related environmental claims, regulatory action and its commitment to exit PFAS manufacturing, any of which could require further provisions.
• Smaller, more cyclical company post-spin: After divesting Solventum, 3M is more exposed to industrial and electronics cycles and has lost the steadier Health Care cash flows.
• Valuation already reflects the recovery: At roughly 27x trailing GAAP earnings the market is pricing in continued execution, leaving little room for disappointment.

3. Business Segments

Following the Solventum spin-off, 3M reports three operating segments. The split below uses FY2025 net sales.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Safety and Industrial	Approximately 46% (~$11.4bn)	Abrasives, adhesives and tapes, personal safety (respirators, hearing/eye protection), roofing granules, electrical markets and industrial specialties — 3M's largest segment.
Transportation and Electronics	Approximately 34% (~$8.4bn)	Advanced materials, films and components for automotive, aerospace, electronics, displays and semiconductors, plus commercial graphics and reflective safety materials.
Consumer	Approximately 20% (~$4.9bn)	Retail and home brands including Post-it, Scotch, Command, Filtrete, Scotch-Brite and Nexcare.

4. Business Model & Competitive Position

Materials science as the core advantage. 3M's durable edge comes from a deep portfolio of proprietary technology platforms — adhesives, abrasives, films, nonwovens, optics and surface coatings — that it recombines into tens of thousands of products. Many of these are low-unit-cost consumables specified into customers' manufacturing processes or safety protocols, which makes them sticky and gives 3M repeat, recurring demand rather than one-off sales.

Breadth that smooths the cycle. No single end-market dominates: industrial, electronics, automotive, healthcare-adjacent and consumer demand rarely move together, so weakness in one area is often offset elsewhere. This diversification, combined with a global manufacturing and distribution footprint, supports pricing power and steady gross margins.

The reset under way. The current strategy centres on operational rigour — simplifying the operating model, accelerating the pace of new-product launches, expanding margins and improving cash conversion — while running down legacy legal liabilities. Management has framed 2025 as building "a strong foundation" toward financial commitments laid out at its 2024 Investor Day, targeting continued margin and earnings growth through 2027.

5. Financial Health

The five-year table below is drawn from 3M's annual results releases. Note the discontinuity created by the April 2024 Solventum (Health Care) spin-off: figures for 2021–2023 are total company including the business that became Solventum, while 2024–2025 reflect continuing operations only. The 2023 GAAP loss reflects large pre-tax charges for the PFAS public-water-supplier and Combat Arms Earplugs settlements.

Year	Revenue	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
2025	$24.9bn	+1.5%	$6.00	$8.06	$2.92	$10.93bn
2024	$24.6bn	n/m*	$7.26	$7.30	$3.36	$11.13bn
2023	$32.7bn	−4.5%	−$12.63	$9.24	$6.00	$13.15bn
2022	$34.2bn	−3.0%	$10.18	$10.10	$5.96	$14.04bn
2021	$35.4bn	+9.9%	$10.12	$10.12	$5.92	$16.06bn

*2024 reflects continuing operations after the April 2024 Solventum spin-off; 2021–2023 are total company including the spun-off Health Care business, so the year-over-year revenue change versus 2023 is not meaningful.

The quarterly table below shows 3M's four fiscal-2025 quarters, most recent first, with the bold full-year total. Adjusted EPS excludes special items (principally litigation costs, changes in the value of 3M's retained Solventum stake, and PFAS exit costs).

Quarter	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q4 2025	$6.1bn	$1.83	$1.07
Q3 2025	$6.5bn	$2.19	$1.55
Q2 2025	$6.3bn	$2.16	$1.34
Q1 2025	$6.0bn	$1.88	$2.04
FY2025 total	$24.9bn	$8.06	$6.00

Balance-sheet highlights at 31 December 2025: cash and cash equivalents of $5.24 billion plus $0.70 billion of marketable securities; short-term borrowings and current portion of long-term debt of $1.67 billion; and long-term debt of $10.93 billion. Full-year operating cash flow was $2.31 billion (held down by $3.5 billion of significant-litigation cash payments) and capital expenditure was $0.91 billion, with the company reporting $4.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow that excludes those litigation payments.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, June 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	~$87bn (share price $161.63 × ~538m shares, 17 Jun 2026)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~26.9x ($161.63 / $6.00 FY2025 GAAP EPS)
P/E (forward)	~18.8x ($161.63 / $8.60, midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance $8.50–$8.70)
P/S (TTM)	~3.5x (~$87bn / $24.9bn FY2025 net sales)
Enterprise value	~$93.7bn (market cap ~$87bn + total debt ~$12.6bn − cash & marketable securities ~$5.9bn, per FY2025 balance sheet)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~15.8x (EV ~$93.7bn / EBITDA ~$5.9bn; EBITDA = GAAP operating income $4.63bn + D&A ~$1.3bn per FY2025 cash flow). GAAP operating income is depressed by litigation; on an adjusted operating-income basis the multiple is closer to ~13x.
P/FCF	~62x on GAAP free cash flow (~$87bn / FCF ~$1.4bn; FCF = operating CF $2.31bn − capex $0.91bn). GAAP FCF was held down by $3.5bn of litigation payments; on the $4.4bn adjusted free cash flow the multiple is ~20x.
52-week high	$177.41
52-week low	$139.34
Short interest (% of float)	~2.0% (most recent published settlement)
Days to cover	~3.1

7. Capital Returns & Balance Sheet

3M has paid a dividend without interruption for more than a century, though the per-share rate was rebased lower in 2024 to reflect the smaller, post-Solventum company (the spin transferred part of the prior payout to the new entity). In FY2025 the dividend was $2.92 per share, and across the full year 3M returned $4.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

The balance sheet carries roughly $12.6 billion of total debt against about $5.9 billion of cash and marketable securities, for net debt of around $6.7 billion. Total debt declined year-on-year as $1.8 billion of maturities were only partly offset by $1.1 billion of new issuance. The main constraint on the balance sheet is the schedule of remaining litigation cash payments, which 3M is funding from operating cash flow over a multi-year period. You can track the share price and key levels on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

8. Peer Comparison

3M competes across many niches rather than against a single rival; the diversified industrial and materials peers below provide the closest read on relative scale and valuation.

Peer	Market cap (Jun 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Honeywell International (HON)	~$149bn	Diversified industrial/aerospace conglomerate; larger and faster-growing than 3M, with an announced portfolio break-up under way.
Illinois Tool Works (ITW)	~$78bn	Decentralised industrial manufacturer known for sector-leading operating margins (mid-20s%), a benchmark for 3M's margin ambitions.
Emerson Electric (EMR)	~$77bn	Automation-focused industrial; repositioned around process and discrete automation software and controls.
DuPont de Nemours (DD)	~$20bn	Specialty-materials peer in electronics and water; pursuing its own segment separations.

9. Insider Activity

Recent insider activity at 3M has centred on routine equity-award vesting rather than open-market buying or selling. The most notable disclosed transaction:

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
William M. Brown (Chairman & CEO)	03 May 2025	RSU exercise & tax-withholding disposal	8,578 acquired / 3,912 withheld	$142.50	~$0.56m withheld	RSU vesting (not an open-market trade)

Note: the disposal above reflects shares withheld to cover taxes on vested restricted stock units, not a discretionary sale. After the transaction the CEO directly held roughly 9,331 shares.

10. Risk Factors

• PFAS litigation and remediation: Despite settlements with US public water suppliers and the state of New Jersey, 3M faces continuing PFAS-related environmental claims, regulatory proceedings and the cost of exiting PFAS manufacturing, any of which could require additional provisions.
• Combat Arms Earplugs and other legacy litigation: Significant-litigation cash payments of $3.5 billion in 2025 weighed on cash flow, and the multi-year payment schedule will continue to absorb cash that might otherwise fund growth or buybacks.
• Weak organic growth and macro sensitivity: With organic sales rising only low-single digits, 3M is exposed to softness in industrial production, electronics, automotive and consumer demand, as well as tariffs and trade restrictions.
• Execution risk on the operating-model reset: The investment case depends on continued margin expansion and faster innovation; a stall in either would undermine the earnings-growth story.
• Foreign-exchange and input-cost exposure: As a global manufacturer, 3M's results are sensitive to currency movements and to the cost and availability of raw materials and energy.
• Balance-sheet and credit considerations: Funding remaining legal obligations alongside dividends and buybacks leaves less margin for error if cash generation disappoints.

11. Recent Developments

• 21 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results beat on earnings. 3M reported Q1 2026 GAAP sales of $6.0 billion (up 1.3%) and adjusted EPS of $2.14, up 14% year-on-year and ahead of expectations, while reiterating full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50–$8.70.
• 20 Jan 2026 — Full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance. 3M posted FY2025 adjusted EPS of $8.06 (up 10%), adjusted operating margin of 23.4% (up 200 bps) and $4.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow, and initiated 2026 guidance for ~4% adjusted sales growth and further margin expansion.
• 2025 — Litigation pay-down continued. 3M made $3.5 billion of significant-litigation cash payments during the year under its PFAS public-water-supplier and Combat Arms Earplugs settlements, the main reason GAAP operating cash flow lagged adjusted free cash flow.
• 2025 — Capital returns. The company returned $4.8 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks while reducing total debt year-on-year.

12. Key Dates

• 28 Jul 2026 — Expected Q2 2026 earnings release (date to be confirmed by the company)
• 21 Oct 2026 — Expected Q3 2026 earnings release (indicative)
• 20 Jan 2026 — Q4 and full-year 2025 results (reported)
• 21 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results (reported)

Plan around scheduled catalysts with the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and discuss 3M with other members on the ChartsView Forum.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.