Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Company Research
Last Updated: 30 Sep 2026
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is an Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company, founded in 1876. It discovers, makes and sells medicines for diabetes, obesity, cancer, immunology and neuroscience. Its incretin drugs are now the largest part of the business: tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, and the new once-daily pill Foundayo (orforglipron).
FY2025 revenue rose 45% to $65,179m. Growth then sped up again: Q2 2026 revenue was $22,974m (+48%), and on 5 Aug 2026 Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $85–87bn. The stock is worth about $1.06 trillion. Mounjaro and Zepbound together were about 65% of H1 2026 revenue, and prices are falling as volume grows.
This refresh draws on Lilly earnings releases (SEC 8-K exhibits), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC XBRL company facts and Form 4 filings, all retrieved on 30 Sep 2026. Follow the price on ChartsView Live Charts.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Full name | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Ticker | LLY (NYSE) |
| Sector | Healthcare & Pharma |
| Industry | Pharmaceuticals: cardiometabolic, oncology, immunology, neuroscience |
| Headquarters | Indianapolis, Indiana |
| Founded | 1876 (publicly traded since 1952) |
| CEO / Leadership | David A. Ricks (Chair and CEO); Lucas Montarce (EVP and CFO) |
| Market cap | ~$1,056bn (891.4m shares × $1,184.63 at the 29 Sep 2026 close) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $65,179m (+44.7% YoY) |
| Net income (FY2025) | $20,640m GAAP; diluted EPS $22.95, non-GAAP EPS $24.21 |
| Employees | About 50,000 at year-end 2025 (about 27,000 outside the US), per the FY2025 10-K |
| Dividend | $1.73 per quarter ($6.92 annualised), raised 15% for 2026 |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Distilled from the full report below. Factual only, no ratings.
Bull Case
- Incretin market leadership: Mounjaro ($22,965m) and Zepbound ($13,542m) brought in $36.5bn in FY2025. Lilly holds about 60% of the US weight-loss drug market, against about 38% for Novo Nordisk (Motley Fool, 17 Sep 2026).
- Guidance raised twice in 2026: Revenue guidance rose from $80–83bn in February to $85–87bn on 5 Aug 2026. Volume grew 60% in Q2 2026, and non-GAAP gross margin was 86.3%.
- Deep late-stage pipeline: Foundayo was approved on 1 Apr 2026 and Onswik, a once-weekly insulin, on 24 Sep 2026. Retatrutide produced 20.8% weight loss at 80 weeks in TRIUMPH-2, and a US filing is planned for Q1 2027.
- US manufacturing and pricing agreement: Lilly has committed more than $50bn to US manufacturing, including a $6.5bn Houston API plant started on 21 Sep 2026. Its Nov 2025 agreement with the US government gives it three years of tariff relief.
Bear Case
- Heavy product concentration: Tirzepatide was about 56% of FY2025 revenue and about 65% of H1 2026 revenue, so a large share of sales depends on one molecule.
- Falling prices: Worldwide realised prices fell 13% in Q2 2026 and outside-US prices fell 36% after Mounjaro joined China's national reimbursement list (NRDL). Medicare patients now pay $50 a month for Zepbound, and self-pay prices keep falling.
- High valuation multiples: The shares trade at about 40x trailing GAAP earnings and about 13x trailing sales, so any slowdown in growth would weigh heavily.
- Oral GLP-1 competition: Novo's Wegovy pill had about 183,000 scripts against about 47,500 for Foundayo (Citi/IQVIA via FiercePharma), and Novo is publishing studies that compare its drugs with Mounjaro.
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
Lilly develops, makes and sells prescription medicines. It reports one operating segment, human pharmaceutical products. Its main franchises are:
- cardiometabolic health: Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo, Trulicity, Jardiance (with Boehringer Ingelheim) and insulins;
- oncology: Verzenio, Jaypirca and Inluriyo;
- immunology: Taltz, Ebglyss and Olumiant;
- neuroscience: Kisunla for early Alzheimer's disease.
| Segment / product | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro | 35.2% ($22,965m) | Tirzepatide injection for type 2 diabetes (GIP/GLP-1 dual agonist) |
| Zepbound | 20.8% ($13,542m) | Tirzepatide for chronic weight management and obstructive sleep apnea |
| Verzenio | 8.8% ($5,723m) | CDK4/6 inhibitor for HR+/HER2- breast cancer |
| Trulicity | 6.6% ($4,276m) | Older once-weekly GLP-1 for type 2 diabetes; sales are declining |
| Taltz | 5.5% ($3,563m) | IL-17A antibody for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis |
| Jardiance | 5.3% ($3,432m) | SGLT2 inhibitor sold with Boehringer Ingelheim |
| All other products | 17.9% ($11,678m) | Insulins, Olumiant, Emgality, Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Kisunla, Cyramza and others |
Shares of FY2025 revenue of $65,179m, per the FY2025 10-K product table. US revenue was $43,481m (66.7%) and outside-US revenue $21,698m (33.3%). In H1 2026 (revenue $42,773m), Mounjaro was $18,605m (43.5%), Zepbound $9,088m (21.2%), Kisunla $291m and Foundayo $98m.
4. The Business Model
How it makes money. Lilly earns high margins on patented medicines; its non-GAAP gross margin was 86.3% in Q2 2026. It reinvests heavily in R&D and, increasingly, in manufacturing. Revenue is roughly 62% US and 38% outside the US (H1 2026). US net prices depend on rebates to pharmacy benefit managers, Medicare and Medicaid terms, and a fast-growing self-pay channel (LillyDirect), where Zepbound multi-dose pens cost $299–$449 a month.
Where the moat sits. Lilly's moat has three parts:
- patents: the US compound patent on tirzepatide runs to 2036;
- know-how in incretin biology: tirzepatide, orforglipron and the triple agonist retatrutide;
- manufacturing scale: hard-to-replicate injectable and API capacity, now being expanded across 10 US sites announced since 2020.
What changed in 2025–2026. Lilly has shifted from supply shortages to volume-led growth at lower prices. Q2 2026 volume rose 60% while realised prices fell 13%. Its 6 Nov 2025 agreement with the US government set Medicare and self-pay prices in exchange for tariff relief. Lilly has also been buying pipeline assets heavily: Verve, SiteOne, Adverum, Ventyx, Centessa (about $7.8bn), Kelonia and AtaiBeckley.
5. Financial Health
Sources: Lilly quarterly and annual earnings releases (SEC 8-K exhibits), the FY2025 Form 10-K, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC XBRL company facts (data.sec.gov) for debt, cash, cash flow, D&A and operating income. Fiscal year ends 31 December.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $28,318m | +15.4% | $6.12 | $7.39† | $3.40 | $15,346m |
| FY2022 | $28,541m | +0.8% | $6.90 | $7.94 | $3.92 | $14,738m |
| FY2023 | $34,124m | +19.6% | $5.80 | $6.32 | $4.52 | $18,321m |
| FY2024 | $45,043m | +32.0% | $11.71 | $12.99 | $5.20 | $28,527m |
| FY2025 | $65,179m | +44.7% | $22.95 | $24.21 | $6.00 | $40,868m |
Adjusted EPS is Lilly's non-GAAP EPS. † The FY2021 figure is as recast in the Feb 2023 release to include acquired IPR&D. FY2020 revenue was $24,540m (the base for the FY2021 YoY). Dividend/share is dividends paid per share in the year. Long-term debt is the noncurrent portion at year-end, from SEC XBRL (LongTermDebtNoncurrent). At 30 Jun 2026, noncurrent long-term debt was $47,858m and short-term borrowings plus current debt, including commercial paper, were $7,050m.
Quarterly results (most recent first)
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) | $22,974m | $8.38 | $7.94 |
| Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | $19,799m | $8.55 | $8.26 |
| Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | $19,292m | $7.54 | $7.39 |
| Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025) | $17,601m | $7.02 | $6.21 |
| H1 2025 (Q1 + Q2)‡ | $28,286m | $9.65 | $9.35 |
| FY2025 total | $65,179m | $24.21 | $22.95 |
‡ H1 2025 revenue and GAAP EPS are from the Q2 2025 10-Q. H1 2025 non-GAAP EPS is derived as the FY2025 total less Q3 and Q4, so it is approximate. Both Q2 2026 EPS figures include $3.03 per share of acquired IPR&D charges.
Cash flow and balance sheet.
- Cash flow (FY2025).
- Operating cash flow was $16,813m and capital expenditure $7,841m, giving free cash flow of $8,972m.
- Depreciation and amortisation was $1,997m. Operating income was $26,302m (pre-tax income $25,731m plus $571m of net other expense).
- Cash flow (H1 2026). Operating cash flow was $16,023m and capex $5,259m. Trailing twelve months (TTM) operating cash flow was about $28.1bn and TTM capex about $9.9bn.
- Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026. Cash and cash equivalents were $8,950m and total debt about $54.9bn. Debt rose after $9bn of notes were issued in May 2026 to fund acquisitions.
- 2026 guidance (raised 5 Aug 2026):
- revenue of $85–87bn;
- non-GAAP EPS of $35.50–36.50;
- performance margin of 49.0–50.5%;
- a tax rate of 18–19%.
6. Valuation & Market Data
Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$1,056bn (891.4m shares × $1,184.63 at the 29 Sep 2026 close) |
| Enterprise value | ~$1,102bn. Calculated as market cap ~$1,056bn + total debt ~$54.9bn (noncurrent long-term debt $47.9bn + current debt and commercial paper $7.1bn) − cash ~$9.0bn, per the 30 Jun 2026 balance sheet |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~39.8x ($1,184.63 / TTM GAAP diluted EPS of $29.79, Q3 2025 to Q2 2026). On TTM non-GAAP EPS of about $31.49 the multiple is ~37.6x |
| P/E (forward) | ~32.9x ($1,184.63 / midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, $36.00) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~13.3x (market cap / TTM revenue of $79.7bn, Q3 2025 to Q2 2026) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~30.8x (EV ~$1,102bn / TTM EBITDA ~$35.7bn). EBITDA = TTM operating income $33.6bn + TTM D&A $2.1bn, from XBRL. Operating income is after about $2.7bn of acquired IPR&D charges in Q2 2026, so EBITDA before those charges would be higher |
| P/FCF | ~58x. Calculated as market cap ~$1,056bn / TTM FCF ~$18.2bn, where FCF = operating CF $28.1bn − capex $9.9bn (FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026). On FY2025 FCF alone ($8.97bn) the multiple is ~118x |
| 52-week high | $1,292.65 |
| 52-week low | $725.31 (GuruFocus; StockAnalysis shows $716.08) |
| Short interest (% of float) | 0.80% (7.52m shares, settlement date 15 Sep 2026, per MarketBeat) |
| Days to cover | 3.4 (MarketBeat, 15 Sep 2026) |
| Dividend yield | ~0.58% ($6.92 annualised / $1,184.63) |
Share-price-based metrics use the 29 Sep 2026 close. For live prices see ChartsView Live Charts.
7. What Are They Building
The next wave of obesity medicines.
- Foundayo (orforglipron): the once-daily GLP-1 pill was approved for obesity on 1 Apr 2026. It was filed for type 2 diabetes in Q2 2026, is under review in more than 40 countries, and is targeted for a full global rollout in 2027.
- Retatrutide: a GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple agonist. Lilly says the clinical package is complete for obesity, obstructive sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis pain, with a US filing planned for Q1 2027. TRIUMPH-2 data released on 29 Sep 2026 showed 20.8% weight loss at 80 weeks in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Manufacturing build-out. Lilly has committed more than $50bn to US manufacturing. Projects include:
- Houston, Texas: $6.5bn API plant, groundbreaking 21 Sep 2026;
- Huntsville, Alabama: $6bn;
- Goochland, Virginia: $5bn;
- Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania: more than $3.5bn;
- Indiana: a further $4.5bn;
- Europe: a $3bn oral-medicines plant.
Capex was $7.8bn in FY2025 and $5.3bn in H1 2026.
Buying new disease areas. Recent deals include:
- Centessa (sleep disorders): about $7.8bn, closed Jun 2026;
- Kelonia (in-vivo CAR-T): up to $7bn;
- AtaiBeckley (psychedelic-derived psychiatry): closed 11 Sep 2026;
- three infectious-disease companies: up to $3.9bn;
- Merida Biosciences: up to $2.875bn, pending.
On 28 Sep 2026 David Ricks told Bloomberg he expects somewhat larger deals aimed at new disease areas.
8. Competitive Landscape
| Peer | Market cap (Sep 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | ~$644.8bn | FY2025 sales $94.2bn, +6.0% (J&J Q4 2025 release) |
| AbbVie (ABBV) | ~$465.3bn | FY2025 net revenue $61.2bn; Skyrizi $17.56bn, Rinvoq $8.30bn (AbbVie FY2025 release) |
| Merck & Co. (MRK) | ~$368.3bn | FY2025 sales $65.0bn, +1%; Keytruda $31.7bn (Merck FY2025 results) |
| Novo Nordisk (NVO) | ~$169.2bn | FY2025 sales DKK 309.1bn, +10% at constant exchange rates; operating profit DKK 127.7bn (Novo FY2025 release on SEC) |
Market caps are from companiesmarketcap.com, late Sep 2026. Lilly (~$1,056bn) is the world's largest pharmaceutical company by market value. In US obesity drugs Lilly has about 60% share against about 38% for Novo (Motley Fool, 17 Sep 2026). Novo leads in oral GLP-1 scripts with the Wegovy pill.
9. Leadership and Ownership
David A. Ricks is Chair and CEO, and Lucas Montarce has been EVP and CFO since 2024. The Lilly Endowment is the largest holder with about 91.9m shares (about 9.6% per a 20 Apr 2026 Schedule 13G/A). It sells shares from time to time. Every open-market insider transaction found in 2026 was a sale; there were no purchases. Directors receive small monthly stock-unit awards, which are not shown below.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Jonsson (EVP, President LLY International) | 17 Aug 2026 | Sale | 6,500 | ~$1,175.10 | ~$7.64m | 10b5-1 (adopted 17 Feb 2026) |
| Donald Zakrowski (SVP Finance, CAO) | 10 Aug 2026 | Sale | 2,000 | ~$1,185.01 | ~$2.37m | 10b5-1 (adopted 11 May 2026) |
| Anat Hakim (EVP, General Counsel) | 07 Aug 2026 | Sale | 5,000 | $1,190.00 | ~$5.95m | 10b5-1 (adopted 10 Feb 2026) |
| Ilya Yuffa (EVP, President LLY USA) | 10 Jun 2026 | Sale | 2,500 | ~$1,151 | ~$2.88m | 10b5-1 |
| Lilly Endowment (holder) | 06 May 2026 | Sale | 15,828 | ~$995.36 | ~$15.75m | Not confirmed |
| Lilly Endowment (holder) | 07 Jan 2026 | Sale | 293,446 | $1,085–$1,117 | ~$322.4m | Not confirmed |
Sources: SEC Form 4 filings via EDGAR, secform4.com and StockTitan.
10. Risks and Challenges
- Product concentration (Operational): Mounjaro and Zepbound were about 65% of H1 2026 revenue. Any safety signal, supply problem or share loss in tirzepatide would hit the whole company.
- Pricing pressure (Regulatory): Realised prices fell 13% worldwide in Q2 2026. The US government agreement fixes $50 Medicare copays and self-pay prices, commercial rebates keep rising, and inclusion in China's NRDL cut outside-US prices by 36%.
- Patent expiries (Regulatory): Trulicity loses US compound patent and data protection in 2027, and its sales have already fallen from $7.1bn (2023) to $4.3bn (2025). US data protection for Mounjaro and Zepbound ends in 2027, though the compound patent runs to 2036. Cyramza expires in 2026.
- Compounded and illegal copies (Competitive): The 10-K lists illegally compounded products as a risk. On 12 Aug 2026 Lilly filed six lawsuits against sellers of unapproved retatrutide.
- Litigation (Legal): Open cases include:
- incretin product-liability suits, consolidated in two federal multidistrict litigations (MDLs) in E.D. Pennsylvania;
- the insulin-pricing MDL;
- 340B contract-pharmacy litigation;
- a Texas Medicaid suit;
- a $90m jury verdict for Nektar on 24 Sep 2026.
- Oral GLP-1 competition (Competitive): Novo's Wegovy pill leads Foundayo in prescriptions, and more rival incretins are moving through development.
- Deal spending and leverage (Financial): Total debt reached about $54.9bn at 30 Jun 2026 after a run of acquisitions. Acquired IPR&D cost $3.03 per share in Q2 2026 alone, and further deals will add more charges.
11. Recent Developments
- 29 Sep 2026 — Retatrutide TRIUMPH-2 detail. Retatrutide 12mg gave 20.8% weight loss over 80 weeks in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Separate indirect comparisons favoured Zepbound over Wegovy HD and Foundayo over oral semaglutide.
- 28 Sep 2026 — CEO signals larger deals. David Ricks told Bloomberg he expects somewhat larger acquisitions aimed at new disease areas.
- 25 Sep 2026 — Olumiant label expanded. The FDA approved Olumiant for severe alopecia areata in patients aged 12 and over.
- 24 Sep 2026 — Onswik approved. The FDA approved insulin efsitora alfa, a once-weekly basal insulin for type 2 diabetes.
- 24 Sep 2026 — Nektar verdict. A jury awarded Nektar $90m against Lilly over the rezpegaldesleukin partnership. Nektar had sought about $1bn, and post-trial motions are possible.
- 21 Sep 2026 — Houston groundbreaking. Construction began on a $6.5bn API plant for Foundayo, expected to create more than 600 jobs.
- 18 Sep 2026 — Inluriyo combination approved. The FDA cleared Inluriyo plus Verzenio for ESR1-mutated ER+/HER2- advanced breast cancer.
- 11 Sep 2026 — AtaiBeckley deal closed. Lilly paid $6.75 cash per share plus a contingent value right (CVR) of up to $2.50.
- 31 Aug 2026 — Merida Biosciences deal. Lilly agreed to buy Merida for up to $2.875bn, with closing expected in Q4 2026.
- 28 Aug 2026 — Mounjaro cardiovascular label. The FDA approved Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes.
- 05 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $22,974m (+48%) and non-GAAP EPS $8.38. Revenue guidance was raised to $85–87bn.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
- Expected 29 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Market calendars and a JPMorgan note give this date; Lilly had not published a confirming release at the time of writing.
- Expected Oct 2026 — Q4 2026 dividend declaration. The Q4 2025 dividend was declared on 27 Oct 2025.
- 14 Nov 2026 — ObesityWeek 2026 opens (14–17 Nov, National Harbor, Washington DC).
- Expected Dec 2026 — Merida Biosciences acquisition closes (company guidance: Q4 2026).
- Expected Mar 2027 — Retatrutide US submission (company guidance: Q1 2027).
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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Eli Lilly discovers, manufactures and sells prescription medicines, and its incretin franchise of Mounjaro and Zepbound (tirzepatide) now drives the business alongside oncology, immunology and neuroscience products. FY2025 revenue rose 44.7% to $65,179m with non-GAAP EPS of $24.21, Q2 2026 revenue rose 48% to $22,974m, and on 5 Aug 2026 management raised 2026 guidance to revenue of $85–87bn and non-GAAP EPS of $35.50–36.50. The next leg of growth rests on the oral GLP-1 Foundayo, approved on 1 Apr 2026, and the triple agonist retatrutide, with a US filing planned for Q1 2027.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would come from continued volume-led growth at or above guidance, successful Foundayo launches abroad and a timely retatrutide submission. The thesis would weaken if tirzepatide concentration (about 65% of H1 2026 revenue) meets a safety, supply or share setback, if realised price erosion (−13% in Q2 2026) accelerates under US pricing policy, or if oral competition from Novo Nordisk erodes Foundayo uptake.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (expected 29 Oct 2026) (29 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Incretin market leadership:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Product concentration (Operational):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 30 Sep 2026.