Constellation Energy (CEG) - Company Research

Last Updated: 24 August 2026

Constellation Energy Corporation is the largest competitive power generator in the United States and the operator of the country's biggest nuclear fleet. Spun out of Exelon on 1 February 2022, it sells electricity into wholesale markets and directly to roughly two and a half million retail customer accounts. On 7 January 2026 it closed a roughly $21.8bn acquisition of Calpine, adding around 23 GW of predominantly natural-gas, geothermal, battery and solar capacity and a large competitive retail platform, taking group capacity to about 55 GW. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is building, and what the raw numbers look like as at August 2026. It contains no analyst opinions, ratings or price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Ticker / exchange	CEG, Nasdaq Global Select Market
Headquarters	Baltimore, Maryland, United States
Sector	Utilities — independent power producer and competitive retail energy supplier
CEO / Leadership	Joseph Dominguez, President and Chief Executive Officer; elected Chairman of the Board effective 4 August 2026. Charles L. Harrington serves as Lead Independent Director.
Employees	Approximately 15,291 (headcount reported for the year ended 31 December 2025, before the Calpine acquisition added roughly 2,500 people)
Revenue (FY2025)	$25,533m; trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 $31,270m
Net income (FY2025)	$2,319m attributable to common shareholders
GAAP diluted EPS (FY2025)	$7.40
Adjusted operating earnings (FY2025)	$9.39 per share
Share price	$272.88 (24 August 2026)
Market capitalisation	Approximately $96.7bn
Shares outstanding	Approximately 354.3m common shares
Dividend	$0.4265 per share declared 4 August 2026, payable 4 September 2026 (annualised rate approximately $1.71)
Corporate history	Separated from Exelon Corporation on 1 February 2022. No stock split has occurred since separation.
Generation capacity	Approximately 55 GW following the Calpine acquisition, including the largest nuclear fleet in the United States

Constellation's charts are available on the ChartsView Live Charts page, and macro releases that move power and gas markets are listed on the Economic Calendar.

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Scarce dispatchable capacity into a demand upcycle: Constellation owns the largest nuclear fleet in the United States and, post-Calpine, roughly 55 GW of total capacity at a moment when data-centre load growth is straining regional grids, and it signed an incremental 920 MW of long-term nuclear power purchase agreements in the second quarter of 2026 alone.
• Guidance raised twice on the year: management lifted full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $11.50–$12.50 per share on 5 August 2026, up from the prior $11.00–$12.00 range, and adjusted operating earnings per share rose to $2.55 in the second quarter from $1.91 a year earlier.
• Downside protection from the nuclear production tax credit: the Section 45U credit establishes an effective revenue floor of $43.75 per MWh on existing nuclear output, paying out only when market prices are weak, so the fleet retains full upside when power prices are strong.
• Contracted long-dated demand: twenty-year agreements with Microsoft at the Crane Clean Energy Center, with Meta at Clinton and a 176 MW agreement with Walmart at Dresden convert merchant megawatt-hours into contracted, investment-grade cash flows starting later this decade.
• Improving credit and a growing distribution: Moody's upgraded Constellation to Baa1 with a stable outlook, and the quarterly dividend has risen from $0.141 per share in 2022 to $0.4265 per share declared in August 2026.

Bear Case

• Free cash flow has been consumed by growth: on a trailing twelve-month basis to 30 June 2026 operating cash flow of $4,206m was almost entirely absorbed by capital expenditure of $3,897m, leaving roughly $309m of free cash flow against a market capitalisation near $96.7bn.
• Balance sheet materially more levered: non-current long-term debt rose from $7,250m at 31 December 2025 to $19,111m at 30 June 2026 as Calpine was consolidated, so the equity story now carries integration and refinancing risk it did not carry a year ago.
• GAAP earnings are volatile and diverge from the adjusted measure: GAAP diluted EPS swung from $11.89 in 2024 to $7.40 in 2025, and second-quarter 2026 GAAP EPS fell to $1.42 from $2.67 a year earlier even as adjusted operating earnings rose, because unrealised mark-to-market movements on hedges pass through the income statement.
• Regulatory uncertainty over co-located data-centre load: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled in December 2025 that PJM's tariff was unjust and unreasonable for lack of clarity on generators serving co-located data-centre load, and the compliance process directly touches the economics of Constellation's hyperscaler strategy.
• Execution risk on the restart and uprate programme: the Crane Clean Energy Center still requires a final Nuclear Regulatory Commission operating-licence decision expected in May 2027, and the roughly $3.9bn uprate programme delivers capacity in stages out to 2029.

3. Business Segments

Following the Calpine acquisition Constellation reports six reportable segments. Five are geographic and reflect the footprints of the regional transmission organisations in which the legacy business operates; Calpine is reported separately because the chief operating decision maker reviews it on a standalone basis. The percentages below are calculated from reportable-segment operating revenues of $7,244m for the three months ended 30 June 2026, the first full quarter with Calpine consolidated.

Segment	% of revenue	What it is
Calpine	29.6% ($2,147m)	Operations acquired on 7 January 2026, spanning CAISO, ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, MISO, SERC, Arizona, Oregon and Canada. Predominantly natural gas, geothermal, battery storage and solar, plus a competitive retail platform.
Midwest	21.6% ($1,568m)	The western half of PJM and the United States footprint of MISO, excluding MISO's Southern Region. Home to the Illinois nuclear fleet including Clinton, Byron, Braidwood and Dresden.
Mid-Atlantic	21.5% ($1,555m)	The eastern half of PJM — New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, the District of Columbia and parts of Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Other Power Regions	13.3% ($964m)	New England (ISO-NE), South (FRCC, MISO Southern Region and the remainder of SERC), West (WECC including CAISO) and Canada (AESO, OIESO and the Canadian portion of MISO).
New York	7.8% ($564m)	Operations within NYISO, including the Nine Mile Point, Ginna and FitzPatrick nuclear stations.
ERCOT	6.2% ($446m)	Legacy operations within the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas, covering the majority of the state.

Segment performance is measured on realised net fuel margin, defined as operating revenues net of purchased power and fuel expense, rather than on operating income. Wholesale and retail natural gas sales outside Calpine, energy-related sales in the United Kingdom, unrealised hedging gains and losses and certain acquisition-related intangible amortisation sit outside the reportable segment totals, which is why segment revenues of $7,244m do not sum to consolidated second-quarter revenue of $7,504m.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Constellation earns revenue in two linked ways. It generates electricity from an owned fleet and sells it into wholesale power markets, and it buys and resells energy to end customers through a competitive retail supply business serving roughly 2.5 million customer accounts, including a large share of the Fortune 100. Because the generation fleet and the retail book sit inside the same company, the retail load acts as a natural hedge for a portion of the generation output.

Hedging and why GAAP earnings move around. The company layers forward sales and bilateral power purchase agreements across multiple years to reduce exposure to spot prices. Those derivative positions are carried at fair value, so unrealised gains and losses flow through the income statement each quarter and are then removed in the reconciliation to adjusted operating earnings. In the second quarter of 2026 the unrealised fair-value adjustment alone accounted for $0.94 per share of the gap between the GAAP and adjusted figures. This is why GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted operating earnings per share can move in opposite directions in the same quarter.

The nuclear production tax credit floor. Section 45U of the Internal Revenue Code provides a credit on existing nuclear generation that functions as a price floor. When gross receipts are at or below 2.5 cents per kilowatt-hour the credit is a flat 0.3 cents per kilowatt-hour; above that point the credit phases down at 16% of the excess and disappears entirely once gross receipts reach $43.75 per MWh. The practical effect is asymmetric: the fleet is protected in weak power markets but keeps the full benefit of strong ones.

What the moat actually is. The barrier is physical and regulatory rather than commercial. Twenty-three operating nuclear units cannot be replicated; new nuclear build in the United States has repeatedly run over time and budget, and licensing alone takes years. Capacity payments through PJM and other capacity auctions compensate dispatchable plant for availability regardless of dispatch, which adds a second revenue stream that intermittent generation cannot access on the same terms. The Calpine addition extends this into fast-ramping gas in ERCOT and CAISO, where the scarcity value of flexible capacity is rising.

5. Financial Health

Figures below are taken from Constellation's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and quarterly earnings press releases. Fiscal years end 31 December. Note that fiscal 2021 predates the separation from Exelon and was presented on a combined carve-out basis.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	19,649	—	n/m†	n/m†	Nil	$4,575m
FY2022	24,440	+24.4%	$(0.49)	Not disclosed‡	$0.564	$4,466m
FY2023	24,918	+2.0%	$5.01	$6.28	$1.128	$7,496m
FY2024	23,568	−5.4%	$11.89	$8.67	$1.410	$7,384m
FY2025	25,533	+8.3%	$7.40	$9.39	$1.5512	$7,250m

† Constellation separated from Exelon on 1 February 2022. There was no CEG common stock outstanding for the fiscal 2021 period, so per-share figures are not meaningful. ‡ Adjusted operating earnings per share for fiscal 2022 could not be confirmed from a primary filing during this review; the fiscal 2023 comparative of $6.28 per share is taken from the fiscal 2024 results release. Long-term debt is the non-current balance at each fiscal year end per the balance sheet. Dividends are the sum of the four quarterly rates declared in each year.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
Q2 2026	$7,504m	$2.55	$1.42
Q1 2026	$11,122m	$2.74	$4.49
Q4 2025	$6,074m	$2.30	$1.38
Q3 2025	$6,570m	$3.04	$2.97
Q2 2025	$6,101m	$1.91	$2.67
FY2025 total	$25,533m	$9.39	$7.40

Two things stand out. First, first-quarter 2026 revenue of $11,122m is not a like-for-like number: it is the first quarter with Calpine consolidated and it includes a winter period in ERCOT and the Northeast. Second, the balance sheet changed shape completely. Non-current long-term debt was $7,250m at 31 December 2025 and $19,111m at 30 June 2026, with a further $363m in the current portion, while total assets rose from $57,249m to $98,253m and shareholders' equity from $14,517m to $31,977m over the same period. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $697m at 30 June 2026. Operating cash flow for the trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026 was $4,206m, capital expenditure was $3,897m and depreciation, amortisation and accretion was $3,669m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Market cap	Approximately $96.7bn (share price $272.88 on 24 August 2026 across approximately 354.3m shares outstanding)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	26.7x on trailing twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $10.23. On the company's adjusted operating earnings measure the trailing twelve-month figure is $10.63 per share, which puts the same share price on roughly 25.7x adjusted earnings.
P/E (forward)	22.7x, derived from management's own full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance midpoint of $12.00 per share (range $11.50–$12.50, raised 5 August 2026)
P/S (TTM)	3.09x (market cap approximately $96.7bn / trailing twelve-month revenue $31,270m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	14.0x (enterprise value approximately $115.5bn / EBITDA approximately $8,265m). EBITDA is trailing twelve-month operating income of $4,596m plus depreciation, amortisation and accretion of $3,669m, using the wider cash-flow-statement figure rather than the narrower depreciation-only line. Note the trailing period blends six months without Calpine and six months with it, so this multiple is not a clean run-rate.
P/FCF	Approximately 313x (market cap approximately $96.7bn / free cash flow approximately $309m; free cash flow = trailing twelve-month operating cash flow $4,206m − capital expenditure $3,897m). This ratio is distorted by the current investment cycle: on fiscal 2025 alone, operating cash flow of $4,237m less capital expenditure of $2,949m gives $1,288m of free cash flow, or roughly 75x.
Enterprise value	Approximately $115.5bn (market cap approximately $96.7bn + total debt approximately $19,474m, being $19,111m non-current plus $363m current at 30 June 2026, − cash of $697m). On a broader debt definition that includes finance leases and other obligations the figure is nearer $121bn.
Price/book	3.03x (book value approximately $90.00 per share)
52-week high	$412.70
52-week low	$228.63
Short interest (% of float)	3.29% (approximately 10.43m shares short against a free float of approximately 353.1m shares, settlement date 31 July 2026)
Days to cover	3.28 days

7. What Are They Building

Crane Clean Energy Center. The restart of the former Three Mile Island Unit 1 in Pennsylvania is the single most visible project. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a fuel licence amendment, disclosed alongside second-quarter 2026 results in August 2026. In June 2026 the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted a waiver transferring 760 MW of capacity interconnection rights from the retired Eddystone units to Crane. A draft environmental assessment finding no significant impact went out for a 30-day public comment period that closed on 8 July 2026, with a final environmental determination expected in September 2026 and the operating-licence decision expected in May 2027. The project is underpinned by a twenty-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft for 835 MW and supported by a $1bn Department of Energy loan against an estimated $1.6bn restart cost.

Nuclear uprates. Constellation has outlined roughly 1 GW of uprate capacity across the existing fleet over about a decade, of which approximately 900 MW is customer-supported, at a capital cost cited at around $3.9bn. Work at Byron began in March 2026 for completion in 2028; Braidwood starts in spring 2027 for completion in 2029, with the two sites together adding 158 MW. A 30 MW uprate at Clinton is tied to the Meta agreement and completes in 2029, and a 30 MW expansion at Dresden sits behind the Walmart agreement.

Long-term contracted load. In the second quarter of 2026 the company signed an incremental 920 MW of long-term nuclear power purchase agreements with terms of fifteen to twenty years beginning between 2029 and 2032. That includes the Walmart agreement announced on 23 June 2026 for 176 MW at Dresden across two fifteen-year terms starting in 2029 and 2030.

Small modular reactors. Constellation Technology Ventures made its first investment in a small modular reactor developer, backing Blue Energy, which is pursuing a gas-to-nuclear siting strategy and raised $380m in April 2026 ahead of a final investment decision targeted for 2027.

Licence renewals and Calpine integration. On 26 June 2026 the company filed licence renewal applications for Ginna and Nine Mile Point Unit 1 to extend operations to 2049. Separately, the regulatory conditions attached to the Calpine transaction require divestitures to LS Power; the sale of the 606 MW Brazos Valley Energy Center in ERCOT for $860m before closing adjustments, announced in August 2026, was described as the last required disposal and is expected to complete by the end of 2026.

8. Competitive Position and Peers

Constellation competes with other large independent power producers for merchant generation margin and with regulated and hybrid utilities for large-load contracts. Market capitalisations below were re-checked on 24 August 2026.

Peer	Market cap (August 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Vistra Corp (VST)	Approximately $45.7bn	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $19.2bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $6.6bn; the closest direct comparator on nuclear plus gas merchant generation.
Dominion Energy (D)	Approximately $58.6bn	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $18.1bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $8.3bn; a regulated utility with large Virginia data-centre load growth.
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)	Approximately $36.2bn	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $12.5bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $4.5bn; owns nuclear capacity in New Jersey within a regulated structure.
NRG Energy (NRG)	Approximately $23.8bn	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $33.1bn and trailing EBITDA of approximately $3.3bn; larger revenue base but far thinner margin, weighted to retail and gas.
Talen Energy (TLN)	Approximately $15.1bn	Trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $3.7bn; the pure-play nuclear-and-gas comparator following its own data-centre contracting at Susquehanna.

The structural point is that Constellation's roughly 22 GW of nuclear capacity is several times the nuclear exposure of any listed competitive peer, which is why it has captured the largest share of announced long-term hyperscaler nuclear contracts.

9. Insider Activity

Joseph Dominguez is President and Chief Executive Officer and was elected Chairman of the Board effective 4 August 2026. Section 16 filings identified during this review for 2026 are set out below. The notable item is an open-market purchase by a newly appointed independent director within days of joining the board; the remaining entries are routine equity compensation rather than discretionary trades.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Roger W. Crandall (Director)	11 Aug 2026	Open-market purchase	1,500	Approximately $278.62	Approximately $417,931	Not disclosed as a Rule 10b5-1 plan
Charles L. Harrington (Director)	28 Apr 2026	Restricted stock unit grant	556	Grant, no purchase price	Compensation award	Board compensation plan; vests in full 28 Apr 2027
Bradley M. Halverson (Director)	Apr 2026	Deferred stock unit grant	556	Reference price approximately $305.71	Compensation award	Board deferred compensation plan
Joseph Dominguez (President and CEO)	9 Feb 2026	Form 4 filed; transaction type not confirmed during this review	Not confirmed	Not confirmed	Not confirmed	Not confirmed

No open-market sales by Section 16 officers were identified during this review. Readers should verify current filings directly against SEC Form 4 records rather than relying on this summary.

10. Key Risks

• Integration and leverage: non-current long-term debt roughly tripled between December 2025 and June 2026 to $19,111m as Calpine was consolidated, and the $21.8bn transaction must now deliver its operating and commercial benefits while the enlarged group refinances that debt through the rate cycle.
• Regulatory treatment of co-located load: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's December 2025 finding that PJM's tariff was unjust and unreasonable in respect of generators serving co-located data-centre load left the rules for that model unsettled, and the compliance outcome bears directly on how the hyperscaler contracts are priced and interconnected.
• Nuclear operating risk: earnings depend on high fleet capacity factors, and management explicitly attributed part of the second-quarter 2026 result to unfavourable nuclear outages. An extended unplanned outage at a large unit removes contracted output that must then be replaced at market prices.
• Power price and commodity exposure: the fleet is merchant. Hedging shifts the timing of that exposure rather than removing it, and unrealised fair-value movements on those hedges make GAAP results volatile quarter to quarter, as the divergence between $1.42 GAAP and $2.55 adjusted earnings per share in the second quarter of 2026 illustrates.
• Policy dependence: the Section 45U nuclear production tax credit materially underpins the downside case for the fleet. Any future change to the credit's level, duration or eligibility would alter the floor beneath a large share of group output.
• Project execution: the Crane restart still needs a final operating-licence decision expected in May 2027, and the uprate programme delivers capacity in stages through 2029. Slippage defers contracted revenue that customers have already been promised.
• Free cash flow conversion: trailing twelve-month free cash flow of roughly $309m is thin relative to the dividend and the equity valuation, and depends on capital expenditure moderating once the current build programme passes its peak.

11. Recent Developments

• 11 Aug 2026 — New director buys shares in the open market. Roger W. Crandall purchased 1,500 shares for approximately $417,931, at around $278.62 per share, within a week of joining the board.
• 5–6 Aug 2026 — Second-quarter results and a guidance raise. Revenue of $7,504m against $6,101m a year earlier; adjusted operating earnings of $2.55 per share against $1.91; GAAP diluted EPS of $1.42 against $2.67. Full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance was raised to $11.50–$12.50 per share from $11.00–$12.00. The company also confirmed Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval of the Crane fuel licence amendment, 920 MW of incremental long-term nuclear agreements signed in the quarter, and an agreement to sell the Brazos Valley Energy Center to LS Power for $860m.
• 4–5 Aug 2026 — Board changes. Joseph Dominguez was elected Chairman of the Board effective 4 August 2026. Roger Crandall, Chairman and Chief Executive of MassMutual, joined as an independent director effective 5 August 2026, and Charles L. Harrington became Lead Independent Director.
• 4 Aug 2026 — Quarterly dividend declared. The board declared $0.4265 per share, payable 4 September 2026 to holders of record at the close of business on 18 August 2026.
• 8 Jul 2026 — Crane environmental review comment period closes. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's draft environmental assessment, which found no significant impact, completed its 30-day public comment period, with a final determination expected in September 2026.
• 26 Jun 2026 — Licence renewal applications filed. Applications were submitted for the Ginna and Nine Mile Point Unit 1 stations in New York to extend operations to 2049.
• 23 Jun 2026 — Walmart power purchase agreement. A long-term agreement for 176 MW from Dresden in Illinois across two fifteen-year terms beginning in 2029 and 2030, including a 30 MW capacity expansion at the site.
• 1 Jun 2026 — FERC waiver granted for Crane. The commission approved the transfer of 760 MW of capacity interconnection rights from Eddystone Units 3 and 4 to the Crane Clean Energy Center.
• 7 May 2026 — First small modular reactor investment. Constellation Technology Ventures backed Blue Energy, a developer pursuing modular light-water reactors, which raised $380m in April 2026.
• 7 Jan 2026 — Calpine acquisition completed. Constellation acquired 100% of Calpine's equity for a purchase price of approximately $21.8bn, adding roughly 23 GW of predominantly gas, geothermal, battery and solar capacity and a retail platform serving around 62 TWh of load annually, taking group capacity to approximately 55 GW.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 4 Sep 2026 — Payment date for the $0.4265 per share quarterly dividend declared on 4 August 2026, to holders of record at 18 August 2026.
• Expected Sep 2026 — Final Nuclear Regulatory Commission environmental determination for the Crane Clean Energy Center restart, following the draft environmental assessment.
• Expected Nov 2026 — Third-quarter 2026 results. The company has reported third-quarter results in the first week of November in each of the past three years but has not yet issued a dated announcement for 2026.
• Expected Dec 2026 — Completion of the $860m sale of the Brazos Valley Energy Center to LS Power, described as the final divestiture required under the Calpine regulatory commitments.
• Expected Jan 2027 — Initiation of full-year 2027 adjusted operating earnings guidance, consistent with the company's practice of issuing guidance in early January.
• Expected May 2027 — Nuclear Regulatory Commission decision on the Crane Clean Energy Center operating licence, the gating item for restart.
• Expected 2028 — Completion of the Byron uprate, with the Braidwood uprate and the Clinton uprate completing in 2029.

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