Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP.L) — Company Research

Last Updated: 23 September 2026

Gulf Keystone Petroleum is a single-asset oil producer: it operates the Shaikan field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Its fortunes depend less on geology than on politics — whether Kurdish crude can flow through the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline to Ceyhan, and whether the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad pay for it. 2026 has shown both sides of that. Shaikan was shut in twice because of the US–Iran conflict, taking first-half gross production down to 14,600 barrels a day, yet the company still reported a first-half profit of $12.9m on the back of higher export prices, kept its balance sheet debt-free and declared a $10m interim dividend. By mid-September production was back at full well capacity. This report sets out the figures from the company's own results announcements, with no analyst opinions and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

Field	Value
Legal name	Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd, incorporated in Bermuda
Exchange / ticker	London Stock Exchange Main Market, GKP (GKP.L). Also traded on Euronext Growth Oslo since 18 February 2026
Sector	Energy — upstream oil exploration and production
Core asset	Shaikan field, Kurdistan Region of Iraq (operator)
CEO / Leadership	Jon Harris, Chief Executive Officer. CFO Gabriel Papineau-Legris; COO John Hulme; Non-Executive Chair David Thomas
Employees	Almost 400 staff and contractors across Kurdistan and the UK, per the 2025 Annual Report
Revenue (FY2025)	$164.8m IFRS revenue (+9.0%); $193.1m on the company's non-IFRS invoiced basis
Net income (FY2025)	Profit after tax $15.1m; basic EPS 6.97 cents
Production (FY2025)	41,560 barrels of oil per day gross average (2024: 40,689 bopd)
Market cap	£430m at 198.0p on 23 September 2026 (approximately US$575m)
Shares in issue	217,543,373 voting rights per the 1 April 2026 total voting rights RNS
Balance sheet	No debt. Cash $61.1m at 30 June 2026 and $63.5m at 24 August 2026
Reporting currency / year end	US dollars; 31 December. Half-yearly results with operational updates in between

Two reporting quirks matter throughout this report. First, Gulf Keystone reports in US dollars and US cents while its shares trade in pence. Second, it publishes two revenue lines: an IFRS figure and a larger non-IFRS "invoiced" figure, which records exports at full entitlement value before deducting the recovery of 2022–23 arrears. The tables below use IFRS revenue unless stated.

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Exports are flowing again at full capacity: Shaikan restarted on 16 August 2026 when the export agreement was renewed, and the 15 September operational update reported gross production of around 45,500 bopd month-to-date — above the FY2025 average of 41,560 bopd.
• Export pricing transformed unit economics: the realised export price was $83.5/bbl in H1 2026, against $27.6/bbl for local sales in January–September 2025. H1 2026 profit after tax was $12.9m despite average production of only 14,600 bopd.
• Debt-free with dividends intact: the company has had no borrowings since redeeming its $100m notes in August 2022. It paid $50m of dividends in 2025, $12.5m in April 2026, and declared a further $10m payable on 28 September 2026.
• Visible growth projects: the PF-2 water-handling project is on track for start-up in Q1 2027, adding an expected 4,000–8,000 bopd, and a revised field development plan targeting an 85,000 bopd Jurassic plateau is under discussion with the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources.
• Receivables could convert to cash: a net $97.8m receivable for 2022–23 arrears and a $79.6m top-up receivable sat on the balance sheet at 30 June 2026, together worth roughly 30% of the market capitalisation if collected.

Bear Case

• One pipeline, one field, one region: all revenue comes from Shaikan and, in H1 2026, 100% came from a single counterparty, the KRG. The field has been shut in three times since March 2023 for reasons outside the company's control.
• Short-dated export framework: the tripartite interim export agreement with Baghdad and the KRG now runs only to 27 January 2027, and the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline treaty was extended by one year from July 2026. Each renewal is a cliff edge.
• Cash received is far below invoiced price: Gulf Keystone receives about $30/bbl in cash against a realised price of $83.5/bbl; the difference accrues as a receivable whose timing is uncertain. H1 2026 free cash flow was negative $2.0m.
• Revenue has shrunk sharply over five years: IFRS revenue of $164.8m in FY2025 compares with $460.1m in FY2022 and $301.4m in FY2021, a compound decline of about 14% a year across the table in Section 5. 2026 guidance remains suspended.

3. Revenue Segments

Gulf Keystone reports a single operating segment — oil production in Kurdistan. The disclosed revenue categories for FY2025 are below. Exports via the pipeline only resumed on 27 September 2025, so FY2025 was dominated by lower-priced local sales; H1 2026 revenue was 100% exports plus a $24.6m embedded-derivative gain.

Segment / category	% of revenue	What it is
Local (domestic) crude sales — $113.9m	~69%	Sales to local Kurdistan buyers at discounted prices, which averaged $27.6/bbl between January and 26 September 2025 while the pipeline was closed
Export pipeline sales — $54.9m	~33%	Crude delivered to the KRG for export through the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline from 27 September 2025, realised at $50.5/bbl in Q4 2025; shown before $0.4m of marketing fees
Embedded-derivative adjustment — ($3.6m)	~(2)%	Fair-value movement on the pricing mechanism embedded in the export sales arrangements

Customer concentration is extreme. In FY2025 the KRG accounted for 31% of revenue and three local buyers for 45%, 12% and 12%. In H1 2026 the KRG was 100%.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Gulf Keystone operates Shaikan under a production sharing contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government. It pays field operating costs and capital expenditure and is entitled to a share of the oil produced to recover those costs plus a profit share. When the pipeline is open, crude is delivered to the KRG for export via Ceyhan and payment arrives within 30 days of each lifting; when it is closed, the company sells to local buyers at steep discounts. Cash that is not reinvested in the field is returned as dividends.

What protects it. Shaikan is a large onshore field with established production facilities, and Gulf Keystone is its operator, which gives it control over development pacing and costs. Its 2026 guidance, before being suspended, pointed to operating costs of $55–60m on 37,000–41,000 bopd. The company has no debt to service, which lets it weather shut-ins without refinancing risk.

Where the model is weakest. The moat is geological, not commercial. Gulf Keystone has no control over the export route, the payment mechanism or the counterparty. The H1 2026 figures illustrate the gap: the realised price was $83.5/bbl, but only about $30/bbl arrived in cash, with the rest booked as a top-up receivable to be settled through additional liftings or payments the company is still negotiating.

Capital allocation. Cash not needed for the field has been returned to shareholders. Gulf Keystone paid $100m of dividends in 2021, $215m in 2022, $25m in 2023, $35m plus $10m of buybacks in 2024, and $50m in 2025, with the pattern tracking the pipeline status almost exactly.

5. Financial Health

All figures below come from Gulf Keystone's own full-year and half-year results announcements. Revenue is IFRS revenue in US dollars; EPS and dividends are in US cents.

Fiscal Year	Revenue ($m)	YoY %	GAAP EPS	Adjusted EPS	Dividend/share	Long-term debt (YE)
FY2021	301.4	+178.0%	77.14c	77.14c†	47.16c	$99.1m
FY2022	460.1	+52.7%	123.52c	123.52c†	99.95c	Nil
FY2023	123.5	-73.2%	(5.28)c	(5.28)c†	11.56c	Nil
FY2024	151.2	+22.4%	3.26c	3.26c†	16.05c	Nil
FY2025	164.8	+9.0%	6.97c	6.97c†	23.04c	Nil

† Gulf Keystone does not report an adjusted EPS figure; the Adjusted EPS column repeats basic IFRS EPS. EPS is basic. The FY2021 YoY figure is against FY2020 revenue of $108.4m. Dividend/share is dividends paid in the calendar year. FY2021 long-term debt is the carrying value of the $100m notes, which were redeemed in August 2022. Invoiced (non-IFRS) revenue for FY2025 was $193.1m.

Gulf Keystone reports half-yearly. The table below runs most recent period first, with the FY2025 total in bold.

Quarter / Half	Revenue	Adjusted EPS	GAAP EPS
H1 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)	$57.8m (invoiced $82.8m)	5.93c†	5.93c
H2 2025 (derived)‡	$81.7m (invoiced $110.0m)	~10.30c†	~10.30c
H1 2025 (to 30 Jun 2025)	$83.1m	(3.32)c†	(3.32)c
H2 2024 (derived)‡	$80.0m	~3.06c†	~3.06c
FY2025 total	$164.8m (invoiced $193.1m)	6.97c†	6.97c

† No adjusted EPS is reported; basic EPS is repeated. ‡ Second-half figures are derived by subtracting the reported first half from the full year and are shown for shape only.

Cash flow, FY2025. Net cash from operating activities was $63.1m. Cash purchases of property, plant and equipment were $33.3m, giving free cash flow of about $29.8m on that basis (the company's own measure, after other items, was $29.1m). Depreciation, depletion and amortisation totalled $79.4m, of which $77.3m related to oil and gas assets. Operating profit was $15.0m and adjusted EBITDA was $83.1m on IFRS revenue, or $111.4m on invoiced revenue.

Cash flow, H1 2026. Operating cash flow was $19.3m and cash capex $21.1m, so free cash flow was negative $2.0m. DD&A fell to $15.9m because production was shut in for most of the half. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.6m on IFRS revenue and $51.7m on invoiced revenue.

Balance sheet. There are no borrowings. Cash was $78.2m at 31 December 2025, $61.1m at 30 June 2026 and $63.5m at 24 August 2026. Net assets were $478.6m at 30 June 2026. Total liabilities of $157.2m consisted mainly of payables to the KRG that the company does not expect to settle in cash, plus a $36.3m decommissioning provision. The company also discloses a $27.3m contingent liability.

Guidance. 2026 guidance — originally 37,000–41,000 bopd, net capex of $40–50m and operating costs of $55–60m — was suspended after the February shut-in and had not been reinstated as at the H1 results on 25 August 2026.

You can track the share price against these fundamentals on the ChartsView Live Charts page.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

Metric	Value
Share price	198.0p on 23 September 2026 (previous close 193.2p)
Market cap	£430m (approximately US$575m at the company's 18 September 2026 dividend FX rate of $1 = £0.7481)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)	~16.3x. Trailing twelve-month basic EPS is 16.22 cents (FY2025 6.97c less H1 2025 (3.32)c plus H1 2026 5.93c), against a share price of about 264.7 US cents. On FY2025 EPS alone the multiple is about 38x
P/E (forward)	n/m — the company gives no EPS guidance and its 2026 operational guidance remains suspended
P/S (TTM)	~4.1x (US$575m / TTM IFRS revenue $139.5m, being FY2025 $164.8m less H1 2025 $83.1m plus H1 2026 $57.8m). On TTM invoiced revenue of $192.8m the ratio is ~3.0x
Enterprise value	~US$514m (market cap ~$575m + total debt $0 − cash $61.1m per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Gulf Keystone has no current or non-current borrowings
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~7.5x on TTM company adjusted EBITDA (IFRS basis) of $68.6m (FY2025 $83.1m less H1 2025 $41.1m plus H1 2026 $26.6m). On FY2025 derived EBITDA of $94.4m (operating profit $15.0m + DD&A $79.4m from the cash flow statement) it is ~5.4x. Shut-ins in 2026 depress the trailing figure
P/FCF	~19.3x (market cap ~$575m / FCF ~$29.8m; FCF = operating cash flow $63.1m − capex $33.3m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). H1 2026 FCF was negative $2.0m
52-week high	234.50p, 20 March 2026
52-week low	161.20p, 20 July 2026
Short interest (% of float)	0.60% of issued share capital, FCA aggregated net short position at 17 September 2026 (up from 0.20% on 5 August 2026). The FCA reports against issued share capital, not free float
Days to cover	~2.7 days (derived: 0.60% of 217.5m shares is about 1.3m shares, against a three-month average London volume of about 486,000 shares a day; Oslo volume is excluded)
Dividends in 2026	$12.5m paid in April plus $10m ($0.046 per share, 3.44p) payable 28 September, together about 3.9% of market cap

7. What Are They Building

PF-2 water handling. The near-term project is water-handling capacity at production facility 2, on track for start-up in Q1 2027. Management expects it to add 4,000–8,000 bopd of gross production by allowing wells currently constrained by water cut to flow.

Revised field development plan. Gulf Keystone is discussing a new Field Development Plan for Shaikan with the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources. The outline covers an 85,000 bopd plateau from the Jurassic reservoir, a test of the deeper Triassic, and a gas management plan to reduce flaring. The company has indicated drilling could resume in 2027 once the plan and commercial terms are settled.

Commercial settlement. Equally important is the commercial work: the independent consultant's review of Q4 2025 invoices completed in July 2026, and the company is seeking full production-sharing-contract entitlement, additional liftings and top-up payments from SOMO and the KRG starting in Q3 2026 to recover the gap between realised and cash prices.

Capital markets. The February 2026 secondary listing on Euronext Growth Oslo broadens the shareholder base towards Nordic E&P investors; the company has said it intends to move to the Oslo main market in due course.

8. Peer Comparison

Peer	Market cap (September 2026)	Key 2025 metric
Gulf Keystone (GKP.L)	£430m (~US$575m), 23 Sep 2026	FY2025 gross production 41,560 bopd; IFRS revenue $164.8m; no debt
Genel Energy (GENL.L)	£171m at 62.0p, 23 Sep 2026 (lse.co.uk)	FY2025 working-interest production 17,520 bopd; revenue $68.7m; net cash $133.7m (FY2025 results RNS)
DNO ASA (DNO.OL)	NOK 18.5bn (~US$1.96bn) at NOK 18.78, 22 Sep 2026 (MarketScreener)	FY2025 revenue $1,474.0m; net production 110,667 boepd, of which Kurdistan 52,600; net debt $885.9m (company results release, 5 Feb 2026)
ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM)	~US$583m (NOK 3.93bn) at NOK 1.360, 23 Sep 2026 (MarketScreener)	FY2025 revenue $154.9m; net production 20,900 bopd; net debt $101.6m (Q4 2025 results)

All four share the same Kurdistan export exposure. Corporate activity in the peer group is live: DNO stated on 4 September 2026 that it did not intend to make an offer for Genel after a proposal at 69p a share, and Genel has agreed a recommended cash acquisition of Capricorn Energy. Gulf Keystone is the only one of the four that is both debt-free and an operator of its main asset.

9. Insider Activity

CEO Jon Harris and the executive team dealt in March and April 2026, almost entirely through the vesting of long-term incentive plan and deferred bonus awards, with shares sold to cover tax. The only open-market purchases were small ISA purchases by the Chief Legal Officer and his spouse. Figures are from the company's Director/PDMR Shareholding RNS announcements.

Name	Date	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Plan Type
Jon Harris (CEO)	31 Mar 2026	Exercise + sale	264,428 exercised; 124,718 sold	209.45p	£261,219 sold	2023 LTIP vesting, sale to cover tax
Jon Harris (CEO)	31 Mar 2026	Vest + sale	77,539 vested; 36,572 sold	211.76p	£77,443 sold	Deferred bonus plan
Gabriel Papineau-Legris (CFO)	30 Mar 2026	Exercise + sale	72,701 exercised; 34,290 sold	208.50p	£71,495 sold	LTIP vesting
John Hulme (COO)	31 Mar 2026	Exercise + sale	87,557	209.19p	£183,164	LTIP vesting
Clare Kinahan (CHRO)	23 Mar 2026	Sell	50,000	216.33p	~£108,200	Market sale
Alasdair Robinson (CLO)	23 Mar 2026	Sell	50,000	206.10p	~£103,000	Market sale
Alasdair Robinson (CLO)	24 Mar 2026	Buy	6,536	201.27p	~£13,200	ISA purchase
Jon Harris (CEO)	01 Apr 2026	Award	495,861	Nil cost (213p reference)	Nil	2026 LTIP award
Gabriel Papineau-Legris (CFO)	01 Apr 2026	Award	284,781	Nil cost (213p reference)	Nil	2026 LTIP award

After the March and April transactions Jon Harris held 532,401 shares (about 0.24% of the company) and Gabriel Papineau-Legris 519,334. No PDMR dealings were announced between the April awards and 23 September 2026.

10. Key Risks

• Export route (Political): Shaikan's revenue depends on the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline and on a tripartite export agreement with Baghdad and the KRG that now runs only to 27 January 2027. The pipeline was closed from March 2023 to September 2025, and the field was shut in twice more in 2026.
• Payment mechanism (Financial): cash received per barrel (about $30) is far below the realised price ($83.5 in H1 2026), with the balance held as a $79.6m top-up receivable plus a net $97.8m receivable for 2022–23 arrears. Recovery timing depends on negotiations with the KRG and SOMO.
• Counterparty concentration (Commercial): the KRG accounted for 100% of revenue in H1 2026. Any dispute over entitlement, arrears or the production sharing contract affects the whole business.
• Regional security (Geopolitical): both 2026 shut-ins followed the US–Iran conflict. The company lists security, political instability and sanctions among its principal risks.
• Single-asset reserves and delivery (Operational): all value sits in one field. Water cut, reservoir performance and the delivery of PF-2 and any new drilling programme drive future production.
• Oil price (Macro): export realisations are linked to Dated Brent less a discount ($8.8/bbl in H1 2026), so a fall in crude prices flows directly into revenue.

11. Recent Developments

• 23 Sep 2026 — Interim dividend FX rates set. The $0.046 per share interim dividend converts to 3.44p for London holders and NOK 0.4339 for Oslo holders, payable on 28 September 2026.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Production back at full well capacity. Gross Shaikan production averaged around 45,500 bopd month-to-date to 13 September, and the CEO presented at the Pareto energy conference in Oslo on 16 September.
• 25 Aug 2026 — H1 2026 results and $10m interim dividend. Profit after tax $12.9m and basic EPS 5.93 cents, against a loss a year earlier, despite average gross production of only 14,600 bopd. Adjusted EBITDA $51.7m on invoiced revenue. Cash $63.5m at 24 August and no debt. 2026 guidance remains suspended. The shares rose about 10% on the day.
• 21 Aug 2026 — Kurdistan export agreement renewed. The interim export arrangement between the international oil companies, Baghdad and the KRG was extended by six months to 27 January 2027, as reported by MEES.
• 16 Aug 2026 — Shaikan restarts. Production and exports resumed following the signing of the export agreement extension, after a shut-in that began on 19 July.
• 01 Aug 2026 — Iraq–Türkiye pipeline deal extended. The two governments agreed a one-year extension of the pipeline arrangement after the previous treaty expired on 27 July, with a minimum capacity of 750,000 bpd.
• 19 Jul 2026 — Second shut-in of 2026. Shaikan was shut in again, less than four weeks after restarting on 24 June, following the first shut-in from 28 February.
• 19 Mar 2026 — FY2025 results. Gross production 41,560 bopd, IFRS revenue $164.8m, profit after tax $15.1m and $50m of dividends paid during the year.
• 18 Feb 2026 — Oslo listing. Shares began trading on Euronext Growth Oslo alongside the London listing.

For the macro backdrop to oil prices and Middle East risk, see the ChartsView Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates to Watch

• 28 Sep 2026 — payment date for the $0.046 per share interim dividend (ex-dividend date 10 September has passed)
• Expected Dec 2026 — operational update; the company typically issues production updates in December or January, June and around its results. No date has been published
• 27 Jan 2027 — expiry of the renewed interim export agreement between the oil companies, Baghdad and the KRG
• Expected Q1 2027 — start-up of PF-2 water handling, guided to add 4,000–8,000 bopd gross
• Expected Mar 2027 — FY2026 results. FY2025 results were published on 19 March 2026; no FY2026 date has been announced
• Expected Jun 2027 — Annual General Meeting; the 2026 AGM was held on 19 June 2026
• Expected Jul 2027 — end of the one-year extension of the Iraq–Türkiye pipeline arrangement agreed in August 2026

The company's financial calendar listed no scheduled events after the September 2026 Pareto conference as at 23 September 2026. Discuss this research with other investors in the ChartsView Forum.

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