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Boeing (BA) — Company Research

Last Updated: 19 August 2026

The Boeing Company is one of two firms on earth capable of building large commercial jetliners at scale, and simultaneously one of the largest defence contractors in the United States. After six consecutive loss-making years, FY2025 produced Boeing's first positive reported earnings per share since 2018 — but that figure exists only because of a $9.6bn one-off gain on the sale of its Digital Aviation Solutions business. Strip the disposal out and Boeing lost money again. What has genuinely changed is the operational picture: the FAA production cap has been lifted, the 737 line is transitioning to 47 aircraft a month, the 737-7 was type-certified on 3 August 2026, and the order book stands at a record $715.3bn. This report sets out what the filings actually say, with every figure traced to a company release, a 10-K, a 10-Q or a regulator. There are no analyst ratings or price targets anywhere in it.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
CompanyThe Boeing Company
Ticker / ExchangeBA / New York Stock Exchange
HeadquartersArlington, Virginia, United States
Founded1916
SectorAerospace and Defence
CEO / LeadershipRobert Kelly Ortberg, President and Chief Executive Officer (since August 2024). Jesús "Jay" Malave, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (since August 2025).
EmployeesApproximately 182,000 as of 31 December 2025, of whom roughly 72,000 (40 per cent) are union members across 32 separate agreements with nine US unions (FY2025 Form 10-K)
Revenue (FY2025)$89,463m, up 34.5 per cent on FY2024
Net income (FY2025)$2,235m, the first reported annual profit since 2018 — driven entirely by a $9,566m pre-tax gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions disposal
Market capApproximately $176.3bn (19 August 2026)
Share price$223.06 (last quote, 18 August 2026 close)
Total backlog$715,261m at 30 June 2026, a company record, including over 6,200 commercial aircraft
DividendNone on the common stock. Suspended March 2020 and not reinstated
Credit ratingsMoody's Baa3 (stable), S&P BBB- (stable), Fitch BBB- (stable) — all one notch above sub-investment grade

2. Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • A duopoly with a record order book: Boeing carried $715.3bn of total backlog at 30 June 2026, including more than 6,200 commercial aircraft. In an industry with exactly two large-jet manufacturers and a decade-long delivery queue, that backlog is the closest thing aerospace has to contracted forward revenue.
  • The regulatory handbrake has come off: the FAA cap imposed after the January 2024 door-plug incident was raised from 38 to 42 aircraft a month in October 2025, Boeing passed the FAA capstone review in May 2026, and the 737 line is now transitioning to 47 a month with the regulator's concurrence. A fourth 737 line entered low-rate production in July 2026.
  • Certification milestones are finally landing: the FAA granted the 737-7 an amended type certificate on 3 August 2026 after an eight-year programme, and the 737-10 completed certification flight testing in July 2026. Together those two variants represent 37 per cent of the undelivered 737 backlog and roughly 40 already-built aircraft sitting in inventory.
  • Deleveraging is real and rapid: consolidated debt fell from $54.1bn at 31 December 2025 to $45.9bn at 30 June 2026, helped by $10.6bn of Digital Aviation Solutions proceeds. Q2 2026 was the first positive free cash flow quarter of the year at $631m, and management reaffirmed FY2026 free cash flow guidance of $1bn to $3bn.

Bear Case

  • The FY2025 profit is an accounting artefact: reported EPS of $2.48 and core EPS of $1.19 both exist only because of the $9,566m Digital Aviation Solutions gain, worth $11.83 of Q4 2025 earnings per share. On a normalised basis Boeing remained loss-making in FY2025, and it has now recorded operating losses in six of the last seven financial years.
  • Cash generation still does not cover capital spending: on a trailing twelve-month basis to 30 June 2026, operating cash flow of roughly $3.6bn was slightly less than capital expenditure of roughly $3.8bn, leaving free cash flow marginally negative. Boeing has burned cash in five of the last seven years.
  • Programme charges keep arriving: a $4.9bn pre-tax charge on the 777X in Q3 2025 on the slip of first delivery to 2027, a $280m VC-25B charge in Q2 2026, $0.6bn of KC-46A losses in Q4 2025 and a $1,770m T-7A reach-forward loss in 2024. Fixed-price development contracts remain a structural loss machine at Boeing Defense.
  • Labour risk is live and dated: two contracts covering roughly 16,000 SPEEA engineers and technical staff expire on 6 October 2026, with negotiations under way in Q3 2026. Boeing's two most recent contract cycles both ended in strikes — 53 days at IAM 751 in 2024 and 101 days at IAM 837 in 2025 — despite tentative agreements having been reached with union leadership on each occasion.

3. Business Segments

Boeing reports three operating segments plus an unallocated corporate line. The FY2025 revenue split below is taken from the FY2025 Form 10-K; percentages are of total revenue of $89,463m.

Segment% of revenueWhat it is
Commercial Airplanes (BCA)46.4% ($41,494m)Design, manufacture and sale of commercial jetliners — the 737 MAX family, 767, 777 and 777X, and 787 Dreamliner — together with commercial and freighter derivatives. Delivered 600 aircraft in FY2025, the highest since 2018.
Defense, Space & Security (BDS)30.4% ($27,234m)Military aircraft, rotorcraft, weapons, satellites, space and autonomous systems. Programmes include the F-15EX, F/A-18, F-47, KC-46A tanker, T-7A Red Hawk, MQ-25, AH-64 Apache, CH-47 Chinook, P-8 Poseidon, VC-25B and Starliner.
Global Services (BGS)23.4% ($20,923m)Aftermarket support for commercial and government operators — spare parts, modifications, pilot and maintenance training, and fleet analytics. Structurally the most profitable segment, running at an 18.1 per cent operating margin in Q2 2026.
Unallocated items and eliminations-0.2% (-$188m)Corporate costs, share-based plans, deferred compensation and unallocated research spending, plus intersegment eliminations.

4. Business Model and Moat

How it makes money. Boeing sells very large capital assets against multi-year contracts, takes progress payments and deposits along the way, and then earns a long annuity from servicing the installed fleet. Commercial Airplanes is the revenue engine but has been loss-making since 2019; Global Services is the profit engine, converting nearly a quarter of group revenue into the great majority of group operating earnings. Defense sits between the two, mixing profitable cost-plus production work with a set of fixed-price development contracts that have destroyed several billion dollars of value.

Where the moat comes from. There are only two credible manufacturers of large commercial aircraft anywhere in the world. Certification of a clean-sheet airliner takes upwards of a decade and tens of billions of dollars, and no new entrant has cleared that bar in fifty years. Airlines that operate Boeing fleets face substantial switching costs in pilot type ratings, maintenance infrastructure and spares inventory, which is precisely what makes Global Services durable. On the defence side, Boeing holds sole-source positions on platforms such as the F-47 next generation air dominance fighter and the KC-46A tanker that are effectively unassailable for the life of the programme.

Where the model breaks down. The moat protects revenue, not margin. Boeing's problem for seven years has not been demand — the backlog has grown throughout — but its inability to convert that demand into delivered aircraft at an acceptable cost. Production rate caps, supply-chain shortages, strikes, rework and fixed-price development overruns all attack the same point: throughput. The bull and bear cases on Boeing are ultimately the same question asked twice, which is whether the factory can now hold rate.

Capital structure. Boeing raised roughly $24.3bn of equity in October 2024, comprising $18.2bn of common stock and $5.7bn of 6.00 per cent Series A mandatory convertible preferred. There has been no further equity issuance since, no share buyback, and no common dividend. Free cash flow and disposal proceeds are being directed at debt reduction, which is the rational response to sitting one notch above junk at all three rating agencies. For live pricing and technical context on the shares, see the ChartsView Live Charts page.

5. Financial Health

All figures below are taken from Boeing's quarterly earnings releases and Forms 10-K and 10-Q, cross-checked against the company's XBRL filings with the SEC. Boeing's financial year ends on 31 December. "Core EPS" is Boeing's own non-GAAP measure, which excludes pension and other post-retirement expense components.

Fiscal YearRevenue ($m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY202162,286+7.1%-$7.15-$9.44$0.00$56,806m
FY202266,608+6.9%-$8.30-$11.06$0.00$51,811m
FY202377,794+16.8%-$3.67-$5.81$0.00$47,103m
FY202466,517-14.5%-$18.36-$20.38$0.00$52,586m
FY202589,463+34.5%$2.48$1.19$0.00$45,637m

Adjusted EPS is Boeing's reported core (non-GAAP) earnings per share. Long-term debt is the non-current portion of debt and finance lease obligations at each year end, per the SEC XBRL tag LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations. Boeing's common dividend has been suspended since March 2020; the $0.75 quarterly distribution visible on some data services relates to the 6.00 per cent Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock (NYSE: BA-PA), not the common shares.

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026)$24,560m-$0.76-$0.67
Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026)$22,217m-$0.20-$0.11
Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025)$23,948m$9.92$10.23
Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025)$23,270m-$7.47-$7.14
FY2025 total$89,463m$1.19$2.48

Quarterly earnings per share do not sum precisely to the annual figure because of movements in the weighted average diluted share count and the accrual of mandatory convertible preferred dividends. Q4 2025 carries the $9,566m Digital Aviation Solutions gain, worth $11.83 of earnings per share; Q3 2025 carries a $4.9bn pre-tax charge on the 777X programme, worth $6.45 of loss per share.

Cash flow tells the more important story. Boeing generated operating cash flow of $1,065m in FY2025 against capital expenditure of $2,942m, giving free cash flow of negative $1,877m. In the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $1,185m against capex of $2,008m. Q2 2026 was the first positive free cash flow quarter of the year at $631m, on $1,364m of operating cash flow and $733m of capex. Cash and short-term investments stood at $20,022m at 30 June 2026 against consolidated debt of $45,900m, with a further $10.0bn of undrawn credit facilities.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Market capApproximately $176.3bn (share price $223.06 × 790,370,020 shares outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page). A further 5,750,000 mandatory convertible preferred shares will dilute on conversion.
Trailing P/E (GAAP)Approximately 81x on trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.74. Summing the four reported quarterly figures (-$7.14, $10.23, -$0.11, -$0.67) gives $2.31 and implies roughly 97x; the difference is share-count weighting. Either basis is uninformative, because the entire trailing profit is the $9,566m Digital Aviation Solutions disposal gain booked in Q4 2025. Excluding it, Boeing is loss-making on a trailing basis.
P/E (forward)Approximately 54x, on a consensus forward earnings estimate of $4.12 per share (Yahoo Finance, 19 August 2026). Boeing itself publishes no earnings guidance; its only FY2026 financial guidance is free cash flow of $1bn to $3bn and roughly 500 737 deliveries.
P/S (TTM)Approximately 1.9x (market cap $176.3bn / trailing-twelve-month revenue $93,995m, being Q3 2025 $23,270m + Q4 2025 $23,948m + Q1 2026 $22,217m + Q2 2026 $24,560m).
EV/EBITDA (TTM)Approximately 30x on reported figures (enterprise value $202.2bn / trailing EBITDA $6,796m; EBITDA = trailing operating income $4,600m + trailing depreciation and amortisation $2,196m, using the SEC tag DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization). This is heavily distorted: the trailing operating income includes the $9,566m disposal gain, and excluding it trailing EBITDA is approximately negative $2.8bn, so the multiple is not meaningful on an underlying basis. Yahoo Finance's normalised FY2025 EBITDA of negative $2,338m corroborates that reading.
P/FCFNot meaningful — trailing free cash flow is negative. FCF = trailing operating cash flow $3,639m less capital expenditure $3,849m = negative $210m. Management guides FY2026 free cash flow of $1bn to $3bn, which if delivered would put the multiple in a roughly 59x to 176x range on the current market capitalisation.
Enterprise valueApproximately $202.2bn (market cap $176.3bn + total debt $45,900m − cash and short-term investments $20,022m, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet; total debt is the $41,335m non-current portion plus $4,565m current portion).
52-week high$254.35
52-week low$176.77
Short interest (% of float)Approximately 2.1 per cent of the 758.5m free float, being roughly 15.9m shares short at the most recent settlement. The FINRA settlement of 30 June 2026 showed approximately 14.0m shares short, or 1.73 per cent of shares outstanding. Note that Yahoo Finance's short interest field for BA is corrupt, returning 71,835 shares.
Days to coverApproximately 2.1 to 2.3 days on average daily volume of roughly 6m to 7.5m shares. There is no short-squeeze dynamic in this name.
Price / bookApproximately 29x. Total equity was only $6,115m at 30 June 2026, following seven years of accumulated losses. Book value carries limited information for Boeing.

7. What Are They Building

Boeing spent $3,615m on research and development in FY2025, down from $3,812m in FY2024, split $2,202m at Commercial Airplanes, $877m at Defense, $125m at Global Services and $411m unallocated. First-half 2026 R&D was $1,824m, up 4 per cent year on year.

Commercial programmes. The 777X remains the largest single development item. Boeing received Type Inspection Authorization for the fourth phase of certification flight testing in Q2 2026 and expects approval of the final phases in the second half of 2026, with first delivery of the 777-9 in 2027. The 777-8 Freighter is expected roughly two years after that and the 777-8 passenger variant not before 2030. An engine durability issue identified in 2025 is still being worked with the engine supplier and the FAA. Work-in-process inventory on the programme rose to $6,366m at 30 June 2026 from $4,313m at the end of 2025. The 737-7 was certified on 3 August 2026 and the 737-10 completed certification flight testing in July 2026, with Boeing guiding to certification during 2026 and first delivery in 2027.

Defence programmes. The US Air Force awarded Boeing the Next Generation Air Dominance platform contract in March 2025, designated the F-47. The first airframe is in production and the Air Force target for first flight is before the end of 2028, although Boeing management has declined to commit publicly to a date. The T-7A Red Hawk trainer entered low-rate initial production in Q2 2026 after the first operational aircraft was delivered in Q4 2025. The MQ-25A Stingray uncrewed tanker achieved first flight and Milestone C in Q2 2026, moving it into production. The KC-46A tanker continues to absorb losses, including $0.6bn in Q4 2025. The VC-25B presidential aircraft took a further $280m charge in Q2 2026 with first delivery guided to 2028.

Space. NASA restructured the Starliner contract on 24 November 2025, converting the Starliner-1 mission from a four-astronaut flight to cargo-only and reducing crewed flights from six to four, saving roughly $500m. Launch has slipped to no earlier than Q4 2026. On the positive side, the Boeing-built Space Launch System core stage powered the first crewed Artemis mission around the Moon in April 2026.

Portfolio changes. Boeing has been shrinking rather than broadening. Digital Aviation Solutions went to Thoma Bravo for $10.55bn in October 2025, and on 10 August 2026 Boeing agreed to sell Wisk Aero, SkyGrid and Insitu to Archer Aviation, taking an equity stake in Archer plus a technology-sharing arrangement that preserves access to Wisk's autonomy stack. No clean-sheet commercial aircraft programme has been launched.

8. Competitive Landscape

Boeing's commercial business faces exactly one direct competitor of comparable scale, and lost the delivery race again in 2025. Its defence business competes with the US primes across a fragmented set of programmes. Market capitalisations below were retrieved live on 19 August 2026.

PeerMarket cap (August 2026)Key 2025 metric
Airbus SE (AIR.PA)€166.1bnDelivered 793 commercial aircraft in 2025 against Boeing's 600, beating its own revised 790 target. The 2025 mix was 607 A320neo family, 93 A220, 57 A350 and 36 A330.
RTX Corporation (RTX)$303.9bnFY2025 sales of $88.6bn, up 10 per cent, with adjusted EPS of $6.29. Also a Boeing supplier and, since 14 August 2026, party to a new production-expansion framework agreement with Boeing.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)$140.1bnFY2025 net sales of $75.0bn, up 6 per cent, with net earnings of $5.0bn and diluted EPS of $21.49. Joint owner with Boeing of United Launch Alliance.
General Dynamics Corporation (GD)$106.5bnFY2025 revenue of $52.6bn, up 10.1 per cent, with net earnings of $4.2bn, up 11.3 per cent.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)$83.7bnFY2025 sales of $42.0bn, up 2 per cent, with net earnings of $4.2bn and diluted EPS of $29.08.
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)Approximately $13.7bnDelivered 244 aircraft in 2025 including defence, up from 206 in 2024, of which 78 commercial and a record 155 executive jets. Note the NYSE depositary share ticker changed to EMBJ; ERJ no longer resolves, and market cap estimates for Embraer vary widely by source between roughly $11bn and $14bn.

9. Insider Activity

Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg has been in post since August 2024 and continues to file as President and Chief Executive Officer, most recently on 12 August 2026. The pattern in Boeing's Form 4 filings over the last twelve months is unusual and worth reading carefully: the only genuine open-market purchases were made by two non-executive directors, and there is essentially no discretionary selling by executives. Almost every executive disposal carries transaction code F, meaning shares automatically withheld to cover tax on restricted stock unit vesting in mid-February 2026, which is a mechanical event rather than a sentiment signal.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Bradley D. Tilden (Director)20 May 2026Open-market purchase1,370$218.50$299,345Open market, no 10b5-1 plan disclosed
Mortimer J. Buckley (Director)03 Mar 2026Open-market purchase2,230$224.20$499,966Open market, no 10b5-1 plan disclosed
Uma M. Amuluru (EVP, Chief HR Officer)24 Feb 2026Sale1,503$233.79$351,478No 10b5-1 plan disclosed
Robert Kelly Ortberg (President and CEO)17 Feb 2026Equity award58,097$0.00Annual long-term incentive grantCompensation award
Robert Kelly Ortberg (President and CEO)10 Aug 2026Tax withholding on vesting6,233$234.09$1,459,000Automatic withholding, not a discretionary sale
Jesús Malave (EVP and CFO)17 Feb 2026Equity award18,788$0.00Annual long-term incentive grantCompensation award
David Christopher Raymond (EVP, CEO of BGS)14 Aug 2026Gift907$0.00Gift, no considerationNot a market transaction

Boeing's Q2 2026 Form 10-Q states that during the quarter none of its directors or officers adopted, modified or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement. Directors also receive quarterly phantom stock unit credits, which are compensation rather than open-market purchases.

10. Key Risks

  • Production rate execution: the entire investment case rests on Boeing holding 47 aircraft a month on the 737 line and 8 a month on the 787. The 787 line already slowed in April 2026 on supply-chain shortages before recovering in May. Any regression on quality escapes, supplier failure or FAA intervention resets the cash flow trajectory, and the new fourth 737 line still requires FAA production certification before it can deliver aircraft.
  • Fixed-price development contracts: Boeing Defense continues to absorb reach-forward losses on programmes priced years ago — $4.9bn on the 777X in Q3 2025, $1,770m on T-7A in 2024, $0.6bn on KC-46A in Q4 2025 and $280m on VC-25B in Q2 2026. These charges are recognised as soon as a loss becomes probable, so they arrive without warning and in large increments.
  • Labour disruption: two SPEEA contracts covering roughly 16,000 engineers and technical staff expire on 6 October 2026. Boeing's last two contract cycles both produced strikes, of 53 and 101 days respectively, each after leadership had already agreed tentative terms. A repeat would halt or slow the very production ramp the recovery depends on.
  • Balance sheet fragility: Boeing sits at Baa3 / BBB- with all three agencies, one notch above sub-investment grade, with $45.9bn of debt against $6.1bn of total equity. A downgrade to junk would materially raise the cost of the remaining debt stack and constrain the customer-financing business. This is why capital is going to deleveraging rather than to a dividend or buyback.
  • 777X certification slippage: first delivery has already moved to 2027, final-phase FAA approval is still outstanding, and an unresolved engine durability issue sits with the supplier. Programme work-in-process inventory grew by more than $2bn in the first half of 2026 alone. Further slippage triggers further reach-forward losses.
  • Competitive share loss: Airbus outdelivered Boeing 793 to 600 in 2025 and led Boeing on 2026 gross orders by roughly 607 aircraft at the end of July. Every year Boeing spends recovering capacity is a year of narrowbody share that is difficult to win back, given delivery slots now stretch years into the future.
  • Defence programme and platform risk: the US Army grounded all AH-64 Apache training flights on 14 August 2026 following a fatal crash near Fort Hood on 12 August. Apache is a meaningful Boeing Defense line. Separately, Boeing and Lockheed each guarantee $500m of United Launch Alliance credit facilities maturing 30 July 2027, and Boeing's Q2 2026 filing warns of further support or losses if ULA cannot resume Vulcan launches on plan.

11. Recent Developments

  • 18 Feb 2026 — Two large Vietnamese orders land on the same day. Vietnam Airlines finalised an order for 50 737 MAX aircraft and Sun PhuQuoc Airways ordered up to 40 787 Dreamliners, following Air Cambodia's order for up to 20 737 MAX jets on 3 February.
  • 31 Mar 2026 — Fifth Circuit upholds dismissal of the DOJ 737 MAX criminal case. The appeals court held that the Crime Victims' Rights Act does not give victims an unlimited right to appeal the dismissal of a prosecution, closing out the criminal matter that had run since 2021. Judge Reed O'Connor had dismissed the case at the Department of Justice's request on 6 November 2025 under a non-prosecution agreement worth over $1.1bn, while stating on the record that it failed to secure the necessary accountability.
  • 22 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results show revenue growth but heavy cash burn. Revenue of $22,217m was up 14 per cent, but free cash flow was negative $1.5bn and core loss per share was $0.20. Backlog reached a then-record $695bn.
  • 27 May 2026 — Boeing passes the FAA capstone review. This cleared the 737 production rate increase from 42 to 47 aircraft a month and is arguably the single most important operational milestone of the year, since the cap imposed after the January 2024 door-plug incident had constrained cash generation for two years.
  • 20 Jul 2026 — Farnborough Airshow produces a substantial order haul. SMBC Aviation Capital ordered 100 737 MAX jets, Riyadh Air committed to 28 787s and added the 787-10, Philippine Airlines committed to up to 20 787s, AerCap took 15 787s, MSC Air Cargo ordered 777-8 Freighters and Uganda Airlines placed its first Boeing order.
  • 28 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results deliver the first positive free cash flow quarter of the year. Revenue rose 8 per cent to $24,560m, free cash flow was positive $631m against negative $200m a year earlier, and total backlog reached a record $715.3bn. Offsetting this, core loss per share was $0.76 and a $280m charge was taken on the VC-25B programme.
  • 03 Aug 2026 — FAA grants the 737-7 an amended type certificate. This clears the smallest MAX variant for commercial service after an eight-year certification programme involving more than 1,000 hours of flight and ground testing, and includes an updated engine anti-ice system. It unlocks roughly 6 per cent of the 737 backlog and part of the approximately 40 built aircraft held in inventory awaiting certification.
  • 10 Aug 2026 — Boeing agrees to sell Wisk Aero, SkyGrid and Insitu to Archer Aviation. Boeing takes an equity stake in Archer plus a technology-sharing arrangement that retains access to Wisk's autonomy technology. Consideration and closing date were not disclosed. The transaction exits electric vertical take-off and tactical uncrewed aerial systems.
  • 14 Aug 2026 — US Army grounds all AH-64 Apache training flights. The stand-down followed a fatal crash near Fort Hood, Texas on 12 August 2026 in which two soldiers died. Boeing shares fell 2.5 per cent to $225.95 on Monday 17 August. An internal Army memo reported by Defense One indicated flight operations were due to resume on 19 August.
  • 14 Aug 2026 — New seven-year production framework agreements signed. Boeing signed agreements with the US Department of War and with Raytheon, an RTX business, to expand munitions and weapons production capacity.
  • 14 Aug 2026 — July delivery figures show Boeing trailing Airbus. Boeing delivered 53 aircraft in July, down 17 per cent from June, against Airbus's 67. Year to date through July, Boeing has delivered 367 aircraft against 328 in the same period of 2025, but Airbus leads on 2026 gross orders by roughly 607 aircraft.

12. Key Dates and Catalysts

  • Expected October 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Boeing has not yet issued its scheduling notice. Precedent: Q3 2025 was released on 29 October 2025, Q1 2026 on 22 April and Q2 2026 on 28 July. Track confirmed release dates on the ChartsView Economic Calendar.
  • 06 Oct 2026 — two SPEEA contracts covering approximately 16,000 engineers and technical staff expire. Boeing states in its Q2 2026 Form 10-Q that it is negotiating during Q3 2026. This is the highest-probability negative catalyst on the calendar.
  • Expected October 2026 — FAA type certification of the 737 MAX 10. Boeing guides to certification during 2026 with first delivery in 2027; Bloomberg reported on 23 July 2026 that approval is expected around October.
  • Expected December 2026 — FAA approval of the final phases of 777-9 certification flight testing, which Boeing guides to the second half of 2026.
  • Expected December 2026 — FAA production certification of the new 737 North Line, required before that fourth assembly line can deliver aircraft. Low-rate initial production began in July 2026.
  • Expected December 2026 — Starliner-1 uncrewed cargo mission to the International Space Station, now no earlier than Q4 2026 after slipping from April 2026.
  • Expected 2027 — first delivery of the 777-9, and first deliveries of the 737-7 and 737-10.
  • 30 Jul 2027 — United Launch Alliance credit facilities mature, with Boeing and Lockheed Martin each guaranteeing $500m.
  • Expected 2028 — first delivery of the VC-25B presidential aircraft, and the US Air Force target for first flight of the F-47.

Boeing has no investor day or capital markets day currently scheduled, and no outstanding court dates on the 737 MAX criminal matter, which is closed. Monthly order and delivery figures are published by Boeing in the second week of each month and are the most useful high-frequency read on whether the production ramp is holding. Readers comparing notes on aerospace names can do so in the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
64 / 100

The central thesis. Boeing designs, builds and services large commercial jetliners and military aircraft, earning revenue from aircraft deliveries against multi-year contracts and a high-margin aftermarket annuity through Global Services. FY2025 revenue was $89,463m, up 34.5 per cent, with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.48 and core EPS of $1.19 — but both figures exist only because of a $9,566m gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions disposal, worth $11.83 of Q4 2025 earnings per share, so Boeing was loss-making on an underlying basis. Management's only FY2026 financial guidance is free cash flow of $1bn to $3bn and approximately 500 737 deliveries; it publishes no earnings guidance. The primary structural driver is the 737 production ramp, which moved from a regulator-imposed cap of 38 aircraft a month to 42 in October 2025 and is now transitioning to 47 after Boeing passed the FAA capstone review in May 2026, against a record $715.3bn backlog.

What would confirm or break it. The bull case is confirmed by Boeing holding 47 aircraft a month on the 737 line and 8 a month on the 787, converting that into the guided $1bn to $3bn of FY2026 free cash flow, certifying the 737-10 and clearing the final phases of 777-9 flight testing on the stated schedule. It is invalidated by a further production rate setback or quality escape, a strike when the two SPEEA contracts covering roughly 16,000 engineers expire on 6 October 2026, another large fixed-price reach-forward charge of the kind taken on the 777X, T-7A, KC-46A and VC-25B, or a credit downgrade from Baa3 and BBB- into sub-investment grade, which would raise the cost of a $45.9bn debt stack sitting against only $6.1bn of total equity.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "A duopoly with a record order book:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Production rate execution:" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
4 : 4
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
0 of 7
Recent news
Net upgrades
Generated
19 Aug 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 19 Aug 2026.