Defence & Aerospace

Last Updated: 19 July 2026

Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (LSE: RR.) designs and services large aero engines for widebody aircraft, builds defence propulsion for combat aircraft, transport fleets and nuclear submarines, and supplies mtu-branded power systems for data centres, ships and governments. Three years into CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç's transformation, 2025 delivered record underlying operating profit of £3.5bn, free cash flow of £3.3bn, an upgraded set of mid-term targets and a £7bn–£9bn multi-year buyback — and the shares have re-rated to within sight of their all-time high. Half-year 2026 results land on 30 July. The numbers, the valuation and both sides of the case are below, with no analyst opinions.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Transformation delivering: Underlying operating profit rose from £2.5bn (2024) to £3.5bn (2025) at a 17.3% margin, guidance for 2026 is £4.0bn–£4.2bn, and the mid-term (2028) target was upgraded to £4.9bn–£5.2bn profit and £5.0bn–£5.3bn free cash flow — the third major upgrade in three years.
• Civil aftermarket engine: Civil Aerospace margin hit 20.5% on 15% organic revenue growth in 2025, powered by long-term service agreements over a growing installed widebody base; all OE contracts and the most significant onerous aftermarket contracts have been renegotiated, aircraft-on-ground fell to single digits by April 2026, and Q1 2026 large-engine shop visits grew 12% with fresh Trent orders from Atlas Air and Delta.
• Power Systems data-centre boom: Underlying revenue rose 19% in 2025 with data-centre revenue up 35% and margin up 4.5pts to 17.4% — mtu backup and prime power is a direct AI-infrastructure play, with the young battery-storage (BESS) business now at breakeven.
• SMR franchise: Rolls-Royce SMR is the sole provider for the UK's first small-modular-reactor programme (government contract signed 13 April 2026), signed an early-works contract with Czech utility ČEZ (24 April 2026) and was selected for Sweden's first new nuclear in 40 years (15 June 2026) — the only company with multiple contractual SMR commitments in Europe, targeted to be profitable and cash-generative by 2030.
• Balance sheet and shareholder returns: Net cash of £1.9bn, FY2025 free cash flow of £3,270m, a 58% dividend increase to 9.5p, and a £7bn–£9bn buyback across 2026–2028 (£2.5bn this year, over £750m already done by 30 April 2026).

Bear Case

• Civil-cycle exposure: Just over half of underlying revenue is Civil Aerospace, geared to widebody flying hours; a pandemic-style shock, recession or conflict disrupting long-haul travel would hit LTSA cash receipts and aftermarket profit quickly, as 2020–21 demonstrated.
• Supply chain and tariffs: Management itself flags supply-chain constraints and tariffs as persistent headwinds; parts shortages or cost inflation could slow the OE ramp and squeeze the very margins the re-rating is built on.
• Execution and capital intensity ahead: The 2028 targets, the £2.5bn-a-year buyback cadence and SMR all assume sustained execution; SMR requires years of investment before 2030 breakeven, and 2025's statutory profit (£5.8bn, EPS 69.41p) was flattered by non-cash hedge-book gains and deferred-tax credits that will not repeat.

3. Business Segments

FY2025 underlying revenue by division (Rolls-Royce 2025 full-year results):

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Civil engines are frequently sold at slim or negative margin to win the slot, with the economics recovered over 25+ years of long-term service agreements priced per engine flying hour — a razor-and-blades model that turns the installed base into an annuity. Defence adds long-cycle government contracts (including the monopoly on UK submarine reactors), and Power Systems sells engines plus service into data-centre, marine and governmental demand.

The moat. Certification barriers, decades of safety data and the physics of large turbofans keep the widebody engine market an effective duopoly between Rolls-Royce (Trent/UltraFan) and GE; switching costs on an in-service fleet are prohibitive, and sovereign defence relationships (UK, US, AUKUS) are protected by security clearance and treaty.

The transformation. Since 2023 management has renegotiated loss-making contracts, repriced the aftermarket, cut costs and lifted returns — taking the group from junk-rated pandemic survivor (net debt £5.2bn in 2021) to investment-grade net-cash compounder inside four years, with capital now recycled into UltraFan, SMR and shareholder returns.

5. Financial Health

Figures from Rolls-Royce full-year and half-year results announcements (statutory revenue and basic EPS; underlying EPS as the adjusted measure).

† 2021–2023 GAAP EPS shown for continuing operations (ITP Aero was sold in September 2022). ‡ 2025 statutory EPS was inflated by non-cash items: the statutory-to-underlying bridge includes ~£1,960m of FX/derivative remeasurement gains and ~£1,130m of net deferred-tax effects (including a £277m UK deferred-tax-asset credit). Adjusted EPS is Rolls-Royce's underlying basic EPS. Long-term debt is non-current borrowings and lease liabilities per the balance sheet; net cash/(debt) was £(5,157)m in 2021, £(3,251)m in 2022, £(1,952)m in 2023, £475m in 2024 and £1,895m in 2025. FY2021 YoY per the 2021 annual report (revenue 2% lower than 2020).

Rolls-Royce reports half-yearly, not quarterly:

Statutory revenue and basic EPS; Adjusted = underlying basic EPS. † H2 figures derived as full year minus H1. ‡ H1 2025 statutory EPS includes recognition of UK deferred tax assets and hedge-book gains (statutory PBT £4,841m vs underlying £1,689m). FY2025 cash flow (used in Section 6): net cash inflow from operating activities £4,565m, capital expenditure £978m (including PP&E additions £621m and intangible additions £364m), depreciation, amortisation and impairment £900m, free cash flow £3,270m.

6. Valuation Metrics

Share prices, and figures worked out from them, are not shown for London-listed companies on ChartsView.

Raw metrics, July 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. Growth Drivers — What Are They Building?

Four engines of growth are being built at once. First, the Civil aftermarket: every new Trent delivered (40 XWB-97s ordered by Atlas Air, plus Delta commitments for XWB-84 EP and Trent 7000 in April 2026) adds decades of flying-hour service revenue, while time-on-wing programmes lift margin per visit; UltraFan technology is being matured for the next widebody cycle and potential narrowbody re-entry. Second, Defence: NATO rearmament, the AUKUS submarine programme (Rolls-Royce supplies the UK's naval reactors), B-52 re-engining deliveries and June 2026 US Air Force funding to develop an AE-based engine for autonomous collaborative combat aircraft expand a long-cycle order book. Third, Power Systems: data-centre demand (+35% revenue in 2025) has turned mtu gensets into an AI-buildout beneficiary, with battery storage now breakeven and further growth potential flagged by management. Fourth, Rolls-Royce SMR: with the UK government contract signed, ČEZ early works underway in Czechia and selection in Sweden, the 470MW factory-built reactor aims at profitability and positive cash flow by 2030 — optionality on European nuclear that peers lack. Management's 2028 targets: £4.9bn–£5.2bn underlying operating profit, 18–20% margins and £5.0bn–£5.3bn of free cash flow.

8. Competitive Landscape

Engine and defence-propulsion comparators:

Rolls-Royce's distinctive position: the only pure-play large-engine maker with a defence-nuclear monopoly (UK submarines), a data-centre power franchise and a contracted European SMR pipeline in the same group.

9. Insider Activity

UK PDMR (director dealing) disclosures in 2026 have been routine share-plan events rather than discretionary open-market trades. Chief Executive (CEO) Tufan Erginbilgiç and CFO Helen McCabe transacted under the Rolls-Royce Incentive Plan on 2 March 2026:

A further routine Director/PDMR shareholding RNS followed on 12 June 2026 (share-plan related). No material discretionary insider selling has been disclosed in 2026; the CEO retained the balance of his vested shares.

10. Key Risks

• Civil Aerospace cyclicality (Macro/Operational): Over half of revenue depends on widebody flying hours; a travel shock, recession or geopolitical disruption to long-haul routes would cut LTSA receipts and aftermarket margin quickly, as the pandemic proved.
• Supply chain and tariffs (Operational): Management repeatedly flags parts shortages, supplier fragility and tariff costs; a worsening would slow OE deliveries, extend turnaround times and pressure margins.
• SMR delivery and capital intensity (Strategic/Financial): Small modular reactors are first-of-a-kind engineering with government counterparties; cost overruns, regulatory delay or funding needs before the targeted 2030 breakeven could turn the option into a drag.
• FX and hedge-book volatility (Financial): A large USD hedge book creates big non-cash statutory swings (2025's £1,960m gain can reverse), and the statutory-underlying gap complicates earnings quality.
• Defence-budget and export dependence (Regulatory/Political): Defence growth assumes sustained UK/US/NATO budgets and export licences; political change or programme cancellations (e.g. submarine or CCA phases) would hit the long-cycle book.

11. Recent Developments

• 15 Jun 2026 — Sweden selects Rolls-Royce SMR. Chosen by Videberg Kraft to deliver three small modular reactors on Sweden's west coast — the country's first new nuclear power in over 40 years.
• 30 Apr 2026 — AGM trading update: 2026 guidance affirmed. Underlying operating profit guidance of £4.0bn–£4.2bn and free cash flow of £3.6bn–£3.8bn maintained; Q1 large-engine OE deliveries +18%, shop visits +12%, aircraft-on-ground down to single digits; more than £750m of the £2.5bn 2026 buyback tranche completed; 40 Trent XWB-97s ordered by Atlas Air plus Delta commitments.
• 29 Apr 2026 — 100% hydrogen engine milestone. With easyJet, a modified Pearl 15 ran to full take-off power on 100% hydrogen at NASA Stennis — a world first for a modern civil jet engine across a full flight cycle.
• 24 Apr 2026 — Czech SMR early-works contract. Signed with ČEZ Group for the Czech Republic's first SMR at Temelin; first Czech office opened — Rolls-Royce SMR is the only company with multiple contractual SMR commitments in Europe.
• 13 Apr 2026 — UK government SMR contract signed. Landmark contract with the UK Government for delivery of small modular reactors as sole selected provider.
• 26 Feb 2026 — Record 2025 results, buyback and upgraded targets. Underlying operating profit £3.5bn (17.3% margin), free cash flow £3.3bn, net cash £1.9bn, total 2025 dividend 9.5p (+58%), a £7bn–£9bn 2026–2028 buyback announced and mid-term targets raised to £4.9bn–£5.2bn profit.

June 2026 also brought US Air Force funding to develop an AE-based engine for autonomous collaborative combat aircraft alongside GE — extending the US defence footprint.

12. Key Dates

• 30 Jul 2026 — 2026 Half Year results (guidance: FY26 underlying operating profit £4.0bn–£4.2bn, free cash flow £3.6bn–£3.8bn)
• Expected Sep 2026 — interim dividend payment (2025 interim was 4.5p, paid in September; 2026 interim to be set with H1 results)
• Expected Feb 2027 — 2026 Full Year results and next buyback tranche update

The £2.5bn 2026 buyback tranche runs through the year, and the Pioneer Works SMR manufacturing development centre in Derby is due to open in the final quarter of 2026.

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 20 Oct 2026

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) is a US defence prime and the sole contractor on two of the Pentagon’s largest strategic programmes, the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile. It also makes solid rocket motors, radars, electronic warfare systems, satellites and missile-defence interceptors. FY2025 sales were $41.95bn (+2.2%), with GAAP EPS of $29.08 and MTM-adjusted EPS of $26.34. In 2026 sales growth has picked up, backlog reached a record $104.7bn at 30 Jun 2026, and in July management raised full-year guidance to sales of $43.75–44.25bn and MTM-adjusted EPS of $28.60–29.10. The shares, however, closed at $510.87 on 19 Oct 2026, about 34% below their 52-week high. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only. Q3 2026 results are due before the US market opens on 20 Oct 2026 and are not reflected here.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record backlog: Backlog reached $104.7bn at 30 Jun 2026, up from $95.7bn at the end of 2025, after Q2 net awards of $20.0bn that included $7.6bn for Sentinel and $4.3bn of restricted work.
• Sole-source strategic franchises: Northrop is the only prime on both the B-21 bomber and the Sentinel ICBM. The Air Force agreed in Feb 2026 to raise B-21 production capacity by 25%, and an inert Sentinel missile was fully stacked at Vandenberg on 14 Sep 2026 ahead of a 2027 flight test.
• Rocket motor and munitions demand: Framework agreements worth over $3bn, signed on 03 Aug 2026, cover PAC-3 MSE solid rocket motors and THAAD components over seven years. A $4.84bn CIRCM full-rate production IDIQ followed in Sep 2026.
• Raised earnings outlook: 2026 MTM-adjusted EPS guidance was raised by $1.20 to $28.60–29.10 in July, against $26.34 in 2025, and sales guidance rose by $250m.
• Shareholder returns: The quarterly dividend rose 7% to $2.47 in May 2026, and $2.5bn remained under the $3.0bn buyback authorisation at 30 Jun 2026.

Bear Case

• B-21 fixed-price losses: Northrop has recognised about $2.0bn of cumulative losses on the B-21 low-rate initial production lots, with a $1.0bn loss accrual still on the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026. A further $157m net unfavourable adjustment was booked in Q1 2026.
• Recurring programme charges: 2026 has brought unfavourable estimate changes of $68m on SiAW and $71m and $91m on the GEM 63XL booster. Q2 2026 operating income fell 23% to $1,096m and the operating margin was 10.1%.
• Weak first-half cash flow: Adjusted free cash flow was −$845m in H1 2026, and full-year guidance of $3.1–3.5bn is roughly in line with 2025’s $3.31bn despite higher sales.
• Modest growth record: Sales grew at about 4.1% a year between FY2021 and FY2025, and only 2.2% in FY2025.
• Share price drawdown and insider selling: At $510.87 the shares are about 34% below the 52-week high of $774.00. The CEO sold 30,000 shares in Jan–Feb 2026, and no open-market insider purchases were found this year.

3. Business Segments

Northrop reports four segments. Percentages use FY2025 total sales of $41,954m. Segment sales include intersegment work, which is eliminated on consolidation (−$2,317m in FY2025), so the percentages add up to more than 100%.

Since 01 Jan 2025 the strike and surveillance aircraft business has sat in Aeronautics rather than Defense. Q2 2026 segment sales were Aeronautics $3,519m (+13%), Mission $3,250m (+3%), Space $2,753m (+4%) and Defense $2,093m (+5%).

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. About 84% of 2025 sales came from the US government, with the rest from allied governments and commercial space customers. Roughly half of sales come from fixed-price contracts, where Northrop absorbs cost overruns, and the rest from cost-reimbursable work, where profit is a fee on allowable costs. Profit is booked over the life of each contract using estimates at completion, so quarterly “EAC adjustments” can move margins up or down.

Classified and strategic work. A large share of the business is restricted (classified), including about 40% of Aeronautics and about 45% of Space. These programmes, together with the nuclear-deterrent work on B-21 and Sentinel, require security clearances, specialised facilities and decades of programme history that new entrants find hard to replicate.

Moat and trade-off. Sole-prime positions on the B-21 and Sentinel provide multi-decade production and sustainment revenue. The trade-off is fixed-price risk on early production lots, which has already cost about $2.0bn of B-21 losses, and heavy dependence on a single customer and its budget process.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Northrop’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

† Adjusted EPS is the company’s MTM-adjusted EPS, which excludes the pension and retiree-benefit mark-to-market adjustment and its tax effect. FY2021 MTM-adjusted EPS of $32.59 still includes the gain on the sale of the IT services business; the company’s transaction-adjusted EPS, which also excludes it, was $25.63. FY2023 GAAP EPS was cut by a $1.56bn pre-tax B-21 charge. FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 sales of $36,799m. Dividends are declared per share as reported in SEC XBRL.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

‡ The pension mark-to-market adjustment is booked only in Q4, so MTM-adjusted EPS equals GAAP EPS in Q1–Q3. Q4 2025 GAAP EPS included a $394m after-tax mark-to-market benefit. Q1 2025 included a $477m B-21 loss provision, and Q2 2025 included a $1.04 per share gain on the sale of the training services business. Q2 2026 benefited from a 6.3% tax rate after uncertain tax positions were remeasured. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, sales were ~$42.9bn and GAAP EPS ~$31.48 (~$28.72 on an MTM-adjusted basis).

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings and Northrop’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $4,757m in FY2025; ~$5,078m trailing twelve months to 30 Jun 2026. Cash flow is heavily weighted to the second half; H1 2026 operating cash flow was −$376m.
• Capital expenditure: $1,450m in FY2025, giving free cash flow of $3,307m; ~$1,432m trailing twelve months, giving TTM free cash flow of ~$3,646m.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $1,472m in FY2025; ~$1,524m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: $14,428m of non-current long-term debt plus $763m current portion, ~$15,191m in total.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: cash and equivalents $2,307m; no short-term marketable securities are reported.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Northrop’s investment is concentrated on the nuclear-deterrent programmes, solid rocket motor capacity and space-based missile defence.

• B-21 Raider: The bomber is in flight test and demonstrated aerial refuelling in Apr 2026. In Feb 2026 the Air Force agreed to raise annual production capacity by 25% using $4.5bn of reconciliation funding, and the first delivery to Ellsworth Air Force Base is planned for 2027. The low-rate production options are largely fixed-price and run to about 2030.
• Sentinel ICBM: After a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach in 2024, the programme is being restructured with a new modular silo design. Northrop received a $7.6bn award in Q2 2026, the first flight-test critical design review is complete, and an inert missile was stacked at Vandenberg on 14 Sep 2026. A first flight test is planned for 2027, and the Air Force expects a new Milestone B by the end of 2026.
• Solid rocket motors: Northrop says it has invested over $1bn in solid rocket motor production since 2019, doubling capacity in Utah. The $3bn agreements of 03 Aug 2026 cover $2bn of PAC-3 MSE motors and $1bn of THAAD components over seven years.
• Golden Dome and missile defence: Northrop is funding its own space-based interceptor demonstration with Apex for 2027, and the Golden Dome programme lead said on 11 Aug 2026 that participating firms had completed a first round of key interceptor tests. It also received a $0.8bn Glide Phase Interceptor award in Q2 2026.
• Aircraft and sensors: The E-130J TACAMO programme ($3.5bn Navy contract, Dec 2024) is ramping, CIRCM aircraft protection moved to a $4.84bn full-rate production IDIQ in Sep 2026, and a GHOST-R reconnaissance satellite prototype award followed on 21 Sep 2026.

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8. Competitive Landscape

Northrop competes with Lockheed Martin, RTX, General Dynamics, L3Harris and Boeing, as well as newer venture-backed entrants, for US and allied defence budgets. Several peers are also partners; Northrop supplies F-35 fuselages and sensors to Lockheed and rocket motors for Lockheed’s PAC-3. Market caps are mid-Oct 2026 values from MarketBeat stock pages, and metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Kathy Warden is Chair, Chief Executive Officer and President. John Greene became CFO on 07 Jan 2026, replacing Ken Crews, and Adm. Christopher Grady joined the board on 13 Feb 2026. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026. Several filings report weighted average prices, so values are estimates.

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10. Key Risks

• B-21 production losses (Financial): The B-21 low-rate production lots are largely fixed-price. Northrop has recognised about $2.0bn of cumulative losses, including $1.56bn in Q4 2023 and $477m in Q1 2025, and still carried a $1.0bn loss accrual at 30 Jun 2026. Cost growth on the remaining lots would add to these losses.
• Fixed-price development and estimate changes (Operational): About half of sales are fixed-price. 2026 has already brought unfavourable estimate changes on SiAW and the GEM 63XL booster, and AARGM-ER production costs have grown.
• Sentinel restructure (Programme): Sentinel breached Nunn-McCurdy cost limits in 2024 and is being restructured, with a new Milestone B expected by the end of 2026. Further changes to scope, schedule or contract terms could affect the programme’s economics.
• US budget dependence (Macro): The US government accounted for 84% of 2025 sales. Continuing resolutions, shutdowns, debt-ceiling disputes, stop-work orders and terminations for convenience can delay or reduce funding.
• Contract terms on capital returns (Regulatory): The 10-K warns that new government contract terms could restrict buybacks and dividends at contractors judged to be underperforming.
• Pension, tax and supply chain (Financial): Pension mark-to-market adjustments swing GAAP earnings each Q4, a 2026 tax remeasurement lifted Q2 earnings and may not recur, and inflation, supplier performance and cleared-workforce availability affect costs.

11. Recent Developments

• 02 Oct 2026 — FORTITUDE chip announced. Northrop announced a multilayer microelectronics chip under the FORTITUDE name.
• 21 Sep 2026 — GHOST-R satellite award. The Space Force and Defense Innovation Unit selected Northrop and True Anomaly for GHOST-R reconnaissance satellite prototypes; the value was not disclosed.
• 17 Sep 2026 — Q3 date set. Northrop said it would report Q3 2026 results on 20 Oct before the market opens, with a webcast at 9:30am ET.
• 14 Sep 2026 — Sentinel missile stacked. The Air Force and Northrop assembled an inert Sentinel missile at Vandenberg after completing the first flight-test critical design review, keeping the programme on pace for a 2027 flight test.
• 08 Sep 2026 — CIRCM production contract. The Army awarded a $4.84bn firm-fixed-price IDIQ for CIRCM full-rate production, running to 30 Sep 2035.
• 04 Sep 2026 — Precision guidance kits. The Army awarded an $862.8m contract for M1156 precision guidance kits, and the Missile Defense Agency awarded a ~$508.5m ballistic missile target contract.
• 19 Aug 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a $2.47 quarterly dividend, paid on 16 Sep 2026 to holders of record on 31 Aug.
• 11 Aug 2026 — Golden Dome interceptor tests. The Golden Dome programme lead said participating companies, including Northrop, had completed a first round of key space-based interceptor tests.
• 03 Aug 2026 — $3bn rocket motor agreements. Northrop signed framework agreements worth over $3bn with the Department of War and Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 MSE solid rocket motors and THAAD components.
• 21 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results and guidance raise. Sales rose 5% to $10.88bn and GAAP EPS was $7.68, while operating income fell 23% on SiAW and GEM 63XL charges. Backlog hit a record $104.7bn and EPS guidance rose to $28.60–29.10.

Budget and macro releases that move defence stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 20 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results before the market opens, webcast 9:30am ET
• TBC — next quarterly dividend declaration (the last $2.47 dividend was declared on 19 Aug 2026 and paid on 16 Sep 2026)
• Expected Dec 2026 — Air Force target for the Sentinel restructure and new Milestone B decision
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance (FY2025 results were released on 27 Jan 2026)
• Expected 2027 — first B-21 delivery to Ellsworth Air Force Base and the first Sentinel flight test

The FY2027 US defence appropriations timetable remains uncertain; a continuing resolution would limit new starts and production-rate increases.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 20 Oct 2026

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) is a US aerospace and defence group with four businesses: Gulfstream business jets, nuclear submarines and surface ships, combat vehicles and munitions, and government IT and mission systems. FY2025 revenue rose 10.1% to a record $52.55bn and diluted EPS rose 13% to $15.45. Growth continued in 2026: Q2 revenue rose 8.1% to $14.1bn, backlog reached a record $136.5bn after a $76.6bn Navy submarine award, and management raised 2026 EPS guidance to $16.80–16.90. On 07 Oct 2026 the board named President Danny Deep as the next CEO, succeeding Phebe Novakovic from 01 Jan 2027. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 05 Jul 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only. Q3 2026 results are due on 30 Oct 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record backlog after submarine awards: Backlog reached $136.5bn at 05 Jul 2026. On 29 Jul 2026 Electric Boat was awarded $29.5bn for five more Columbia-class and $42.1bn for nine more Virginia-class submarines, part of a $76.6bn Navy award.
• Gulfstream momentum: Aerospace revenue rose 15.1% in Q2 2026 at a 14.5% margin, with a 1.5x book-to-bill. Management expects about 160 deliveries in 2026 after 158 in 2025.
• Consistent earnings growth: Revenue grew at about 8.1% a year from FY2021 to FY2025 and diluted EPS rose from $11.55 to $15.45. 2026 EPS guidance has been raised twice, from $16.10–16.20 in January to $16.80–16.90.
• Strong cash and falling debt: Free cash flow was $3.6bn in H1 2026, and net debt fell from $5.68bn at the end of 2025 to $3.18bn at 05 Jul 2026.
• Dividend growth: The quarterly dividend has risen from $1.19 in 2021 to $1.59 in 2026, and GD also bought back $319m of stock in H1 2026.

Bear Case

• Thin shipbuilding margins: Marine Systems is the largest segment but earned only a 7.3% margin in Q2 2026 (~7.4% guided for 2026). Management describes the shipbuilding supply chain as under great pressure, and the first Columbia boat is not due until 2028.
• Business-jet cyclicality: Gulfstream demand is cyclical, the G300 and G400 have no announced certification dates, and tariffs cut Aerospace margin by 30 basis points in 2025.
• Munitions execution: A DoD Inspector General report found the GD-OTS Mesquite, Texas plant had produced no usable M795 projectile metal parts as of Mar 2026, against a design rate of 30,000 a month.
• Second-half cash headwinds: H1 cash flow was flattered by a $1.17bn rise in customer advances. Management expects higher capex, a ~$500m pension contribution and more than $500m of cash tax in H2 2026.
• Insider selling and leadership change: The CEO sold 51,568 shares (~$19.7m) on 03 Aug 2026, all 2026 insider transactions found were sales, and leadership passes to a new CEO on 01 Jan 2027.

3. Business Segments

General Dynamics reports four segments. Percentages use FY2025 revenue of $52,550m.

Q2 2026 segment revenue was Marine $4,660m (+10.4%), Technologies $3,619m (+4.1%), Aerospace $3,525m (+15.1%) and Combat $2,290m (+0.3%).

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. About 70% of revenue comes from the US government, mainly through long-term shipbuilding, vehicle, munitions and IT services contracts, with profit booked over the life of each contract. The rest comes mostly from Gulfstream jet sales and aircraft services to corporations, governments and wealthy individuals, where customers pay deposits and progress payments before delivery.

Duopoly shipyards and installed fleets. Electric Boat is one of only two US builders of nuclear submarines and the prime on the Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine, a 12-boat programme the 10-K values at more than $125bn. The Abrams tank and Stryker fleets, and Gulfstream’s large installed jet base, generate decades of upgrade, sustainment and service revenue.

Trade-offs. Shipbuilding is labour- and supplier-intensive and earns single-digit margins. Gulfstream is exposed to the business-jet cycle and to aircraft certification timing.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from General Dynamics’ Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

† General Dynamics reports GAAP diluted EPS only and publishes no adjusted EPS, so the GAAP figure is repeated. ‡ Four quarterly declarations at the rate set each March, per the quarterly amounts tagged in SEC XBRL ($1.19, $1.26, $1.32, $1.42 and $1.50). FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 revenue of $37,925m.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Q2 2026 operating earnings rose 11.9% to $1,460m (10.4% margin), Gulfstream delivered 41 aircraft and orders of $20.0bn gave a 1.4x book-to-bill. Over the four quarters to 05 Jul 2026, revenue was ~$54.9bn and diluted EPS ~$16.39.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings and General Dynamics’ earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and the Q2 2026 release).

• Operating cash flow: $5,120m in FY2025; ~$7,705m trailing twelve months to 05 Jul 2026, lifted by $4,035m in H1 2026 that included a $1,168m increase in customer advances and deposits.
• Capital expenditure: $1,161m in FY2025, giving free cash flow of $3,959m; ~$1,258m trailing twelve months, giving TTM free cash flow of ~$6,447m.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $924m in FY2025 (depreciation $680m plus amortisation of intangible and finance-lease assets $244m); ~$941m trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 05 Jul 2026: $6,260m of long-term debt plus $1,256m of short-term debt and current portion, $7,516m in total.
• Cash at 05 Jul 2026: cash and equivalents $4,333m; no short-term marketable securities are reported. Net debt was $3,183m and shareholders’ equity $26,826m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

General Dynamics is ramping submarine output, bringing new Gulfstream models to market and developing the next generation of US Army ground vehicles.

• Columbia-class submarines: The 12-boat ballistic-missile submarine programme is the Navy’s top acquisition priority. The Navy said in Feb 2026 that the first boat was about 65% complete and targeted for 2028 delivery, and hours earned on Columbia rose 37% year on year in H1 2026. Five more boats were awarded on 29 Jul 2026.
• Virginia-class submarines: Nine more attack submarines were awarded on 29 Jul 2026, on top of 14 in backlog at the end of 2025 with deliveries through 2034. The goal is one Columbia and up to two Virginias a year.
• Gulfstream line-up: The G700 entered service in 2024 and the G800 was certified in Apr 2025. The super-midsize G300, launched in Sep 2025 to replace the G280, made its first flight on 05 Dec 2025, and the large-cabin G400 has been in flight test since Aug 2024.
• Land combat vehicles: Land Systems is developing the next-generation M1E3 Abrams, with the Army’s FY2027 request including $474m of research funding, and is delivering eight XM30 prototypes in 2026. On 07 Oct 2026 it agreed to integrate Primordial Labs’ natural-language command software into Abrams and future vehicles.
• Munitions and digital: Ordnance and Tactical Systems is expanding 155mm artillery, propellant and solid-rocket-motor component capacity, while GDIT is building AI and data services, including the $1.3bn ENOCS network and cyber contract for the Army National Guard won on 07 Aug 2026.

Track the defence sector on ChartsView’s Live Charts.

8. Competitive Landscape

General Dynamics competes with different peers in each segment: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX for defence budgets, Huntington Ingalls in naval shipbuilding (where the two yards also cooperate on submarines), and Textron Aviation and Bombardier in business jets. Market caps are 19 Oct 2026 values from Google Finance, and metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Phebe Novakovic has been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since 2013. On 07 Oct 2026 the board elected Danny Deep, President since Dec 2025 and a 25-year GD veteran, as CEO effective 01 Jan 2027, with Novakovic becoming Executive Chairman. Kimberly Kuryea has been CFO since Feb 2024. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026; the sales below mostly followed option exercises. Several filings report weighted average prices, so values are estimates.

On 31 Jul 2026 Novakovic exercised 166,660 options at $165.47 and had 115,092 shares withheld to cover the exercise and tax; she held 766,457 shares directly after the August sale. Discuss insider activity with other members on the ChartsView Forum.

10. Key Risks

• US budget dependence (Macro): About 70% of revenue comes from the US government. Continuing resolutions, shutdowns and terminations for convenience can delay funding, and GD entered 2026 under a continuing resolution.
• Shipbuilding supply chain and labour (Operational): Electric Boat relies on about 3,000 suppliers, some single-source for large components that management calls potential pacing constraints. Hiring and retaining skilled shipyard labour is a constraint, and about 23% of the workforce is unionised.
• Contract estimates (Financial): Earnings depend on cost and schedule assumptions over long contracts; lower labour productivity or higher material costs can force unfavourable estimate changes, particularly on lower-margin shipbuilding.
• Gulfstream certification and demand (Operational): New models such as the G300 and G400 face regulatory certification risk, business-jet demand is cyclical, and tariffs, a delayed mid-cabin airframe supplier and Russia sanctions have affected the business.
• Munitions ramp execution (Operational): The DoD Inspector General found the Army-funded Mesquite artillery plant had produced no usable M795 metal parts as of Mar 2026. GD-OTS has agreed a path forward that includes its own investment.
• Leadership transition (Governance): Danny Deep succeeds a CEO who has led the company since 2013, on 01 Jan 2027; strategy and capital-allocation priorities could change.
• Federal IT spending (Regulatory): Some GDIT work was hit by 2025 federal cost-cutting and contract terminations, and further procurement changes could affect Technologies.

11. Recent Developments

• 09 Oct 2026 — Q3 date set. General Dynamics will webcast its Q3 2026 results call on 30 Oct at 9:00am EDT.
• 07 Oct 2026 — Danny Deep named CEO. The board elected President Danny Deep as CEO effective 01 Jan 2027; Phebe Novakovic will become Executive Chairman.
• 07 Oct 2026 — AI teaming for combat vehicles. GD Land Systems signed a master teaming agreement with Primordial Labs to bring natural-language control to Abrams and next-generation ground vehicles.
• 07 Aug 2026 — GDIT wins ENOCS. GDIT was awarded the $1.3bn Enterprise Network Operations and Cybersecurity Support contract for the Army National Guard, with a one-year base and six option years.
• 06 Aug 2026 — Board appointment. President Danny Deep was elected to the board of directors.
• 05 Aug 2026 — Dividend declared. The board declared a $1.59 quarterly dividend, payable 13 Nov 2026 to holders of record on 09 Oct.
• 29 Jul 2026 — $71.6bn of submarine contracts. Electric Boat was awarded $29.5bn for five Columbia-class and $42.1bn for nine Virginia-class submarines as part of a $76.6bn Navy award.
• 29 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results and guidance raise. Revenue rose 8.1% to $14.1bn and diluted EPS 13.4% to $4.24, backlog hit a record $136.5bn and 2026 EPS guidance rose to $16.80–16.90.

Budget and macro releases that move defence stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 30 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results, conference call 9:00am EDT
• 13 Nov 2026 — $1.59 quarterly dividend payable (record date 09 Oct 2026)
• Expected Dec 2026 — next quarterly dividend declaration
• 01 Jan 2027 — Danny Deep becomes CEO and Phebe Novakovic Executive Chairman
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance (FY2025 results were released on 28 Jan 2026)
• Expected 2028 — delivery of the first Columbia-class submarine

The FY2027 US defence appropriations timetable remains uncertain; a continuing resolution would limit new starts and production-rate increases.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 19 Oct 2026

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is one of the world’s largest defence contractors. It makes the F-35 fighter, the PAC-3 and THAAD missile-defence interceptors, Sikorsky helicopters, the Trident II D5 submarine-launched missile and a range of satellites and space systems. FY2025 net sales were a record $75.0bn, but about $7 a share of programme losses and other charges held GAAP EPS to $21.49. In 2026 earnings have recovered, record missile orders took backlog to $230.4bn, and in July management raised its 2026 outlook to EPS of $29.95–30.65. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only. Q3 2026 results are due on 22 Oct 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record missile-led backlog: Backlog reached $230.4bn at 28 Jun 2026 after about $65bn of Q2 orders. Missiles and Fire Control backlog nearly doubled in six months to $87.9bn, helped by a THAAD contract worth up to $35bn.
• Interceptor capacity ramp: A Jan 2026 framework agreement aims to lift PAC-3 MSE output from about 600 to about 2,000 a year, after 620 were delivered in 2025. MFC sales rose 19% in Q2 2026 on PAC-3 and THAAD volume.
• Earnings recovery and raised guidance: Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $7.94, against $1.46 a year earlier when $1.6bn of programme losses were booked. 2026 guidance now calls for EPS of $29.95–30.65, up from $21.49 in 2025.
• Shareholder returns: The dividend has been raised for 24 consecutive years, most recently to $3.60 a quarter. In 2025 Lockheed returned about $6.1bn ($3.1bn of dividends and $3.0bn of buybacks), and its repurchase authority stood at $9bn after Oct 2025.
• New franchises: Lockheed holds positions in Golden Dome space-based interceptor prototypes, the Next Generation Interceptor and the AIM-260 JATM missile, and a $1.2bn PrSM Increment 2 IDIQ was awarded on 21 Sep 2026.

Bear Case

• Recurring programme charges: In FY2025 programme losses and other charges cut EPS by $7.03 per share. They included $950m on a classified Aeronautics programme, and Q1 2026 brought further unfavourable adjustments on F-16, C-130, CH-53K and Seahawk.
• F-35 delivery slowdown: F-35 deliveries fell to 51 in H1 2026 from 97 in H1 2025, and the F-35 made up 27% of 2025 sales. GAO expected combat-capable TR-3 jets only in 2026, about three years late.
• Flat earnings history: Net sales grew at only ~2.9% a year between FY2021 and FY2025, and GAAP EPS fell from $22.76 to $21.49 over the same period.
• Thin equity, heavy obligations: Shareholders’ equity was just $8.8bn at 28 Jun 2026 against $20.5bn of long-term debt, and pension obligations remain large enough to cause settlement charges ($479m in Q4 2025).
• Share price drawdown: At $552.09 the shares are about 20% below their 52-week high of $692.00. Executives and a director sold shares in 2026, and no open-market purchases were found.

3. Business Segments

Lockheed reports four segments. Percentages use FY2025 net sales of $75,048m. From Jan 2026, Rotary and Mission Systems was reorganised into two lines of business, but it is still reported as one segment.

Segment backlog at 28 Jun 2026 was $87.9bn at MFC, $54.4bn at Aeronautics, $48.5bn at RMS and $39.7bn at Space.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Most sales go to the US government, plus foreign military sales and direct sales to allies. Contracts are a mix of cost-reimbursable work, where profit is a fee on costs, and fixed-price production and development work, where Lockheed keeps the savings or absorbs overruns. Profit is booked over the life of each contract, so estimates are revised every quarter. Those revisions are the source of the “profit adjustments” and reach-forward losses that recur in the results.

Production and sustainment tail. Platforms such as the F-35, Black Hawk and Trident stay in production for decades and are then sustained for decades more, so each programme win produces a long stream of follow-on production, upgrade and support revenue.

Moat. The F-35 is a fifth-generation fighter flown by the US and a growing list of allies, including Germany, whose first F-35A rolled out on 18 Sep 2026. PAC-3 and THAAD are combat-proven interceptors. Qualification, security clearances and installed fleets make these positions very hard to displace. The trade-off is fixed-price risk and dependence on a single dominant customer.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from Lockheed’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end.

† Lockheed Martin reports GAAP EPS only and publishes no adjusted EPS, so the GAAP figure is repeated. It does publish a table of programme losses and other charges, which put the FY2025 EPS impact at $7.03; adding that back would give about $28.52, a ChartsView calculation and not a company figure. FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 net sales of $65,398m. Dividends are declared per share as reported in SEC XBRL.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Q2 2025 included $1.6bn of programme losses: $950m on a classified Aeronautics programme, $570m on the Canadian Maritime Helicopter Program and $95m on the Turkish Utility Helicopter Program. Q4 2025 included a $479m pension settlement charge. Over the four quarters to 28 Jun 2026, net sales were ~$77.0bn and GAAP EPS ~$27.13.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings and Lockheed’s earnings releases (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $8.56bn in FY2025, after an $860m pension contribution in Q4; ~$10.40bn trailing twelve months to 28 Jun 2026. 2026 guidance is $9.2–9.4bn.
• Capital expenditure: $1.65bn in FY2025, giving free cash flow of $6.91bn; 2026 capex guidance is $2.0–2.4bn.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $1.69bn in FY2025; ~$1.69bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 28 Jun 2026: $20,538m of non-current long-term debt and no current portion, after $1,168m was current at year end.
• Cash at 28 Jun 2026: cash and equivalents $3,791m; no short-term marketable securities are reported. Shareholders’ equity was $8,768m.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

Lockheed is shifting investment towards munitions and missile-defence capacity and space-based defence, while working through the F-35 software and hardware upgrade.

• Missile-defence capacity: PAC-3 MSE production is targeted to rise towards ~2,000 a year under a seven-year framework agreed in Jan 2026, and GM Defense delivered its first PAC-3 MSE components on 17 Sep 2026. Lockheed unveiled PAC-3 Edge for the Army’s future interceptor on 09 Oct 2026, and a THAAD contract worth up to $35bn was awarded on 24 Jun 2026.
• F-35 TR-3 and Block 4: GAO expected combat-capable TR-3 deliveries in 2026, about three years late, with a reduced Block 4 completed around 2031. Deliveries slowed to 19 jets in Q2 2026.
• Strike weapons: The JASSM/LRASM large-lot contract rose to about $10.46bn after an $826m modification on 09 Sep 2026. A $1.2bn PrSM Increment 2 IDIQ followed on 21 Sep, and a framework agreement on 17 Sep 2026 aims to speed up AIM-260 JATM production.
• Space and homeland defence: The Next Generation Interceptor completed a Stage 2 motor static fire on 10 Aug 2026. Lockheed is one of 12 companies holding Golden Dome space-based interceptor prototype agreements (up to $3.2bn in total, Apr 2026), and Orion flew NASA’s crewed Artemis II mission in Q1 2026.
• Hypersonics and industrial base: The Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic weapon completed an all-up-round flight test on 26 Mar 2026. Lockheed signed a solid-rocket-motor agreement with Avio (13 Oct 2026) and a munitions expansion with Hadrian (14 Oct 2026), and on 06 Jul 2026 it agreed to buy Ultra Maritime for $3.45bn.

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8. Competitive Landscape

Lockheed competes with RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing for US and allied defence budgets. Several of them are also its partners or suppliers; RTX’s Pratt & Whitney, for example, makes the F-35’s F135 engine. Market caps are 16 Oct 2026 closes, and metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Jim Taiclet is Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Evan Scott is CFO. On 06 May 2026 Lockheed said Aeronautics President Greg Ulmer would retire, and OJ Sanchez, previously head of Skunk Works, took over from 01 Jun 2026. No 2026 Form 4 transactions by the CEO were found. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026. The filings report weighted price ranges in footnotes, so the values below are estimates.

Discuss insider activity with other members on the ChartsView Forum.

10. Key Risks

• F-35 concentration (Operational): The F-35 made 27% of 2025 sales. Lockheed faces risks from order cuts or delays, TR-3 and Block 4 software delays, supplier performance, contract definitisation and sustainment cost, and the delivery slowdown in 2026 shows how quickly cash and earnings can be affected.
• Fixed-price programme losses (Financial): The classified Aeronautics programme is a fixed-price incentive contract with options. Lockheed has taken reach-forward losses on it, on CMHP and TUHP, and on a classified MFC programme ($1.41bn in 2024), and its 10-Q filings warn that further losses are possible.
• US budget process (Macro): Continuing resolutions, shutdowns and debt-ceiling disputes can delay new starts and production-rate increases. Multi-year awards such as THAAD and PAC-3 still depend on annual appropriations.
• Pension obligations (Financial): Changes in discount rates and returns affect funding needs and earnings, and transfers of obligations to insurers create settlement charges such as $479m in Q4 2025.
• Supply chain and inflation (Operational): Tariffs, rare-earth supply, solid rocket motors, inflation and workforce availability all constrain the planned ramp in missile output.
• Acquisition integration (Operational): The pending $3.45bn Ultra Maritime purchase needs regulatory approval, and once closed it has to be integrated into RMS.

11. Recent Developments

• 16 Oct 2026 — TACAMO aircraft delivered. Lockheed delivered a C-130J-30 to the US Navy as the future E-130J TACAMO aircraft.
• 14 Oct 2026 — Munitions expansion with Hadrian. Lockheed announced a munitions manufacturing expansion with Hadrian that it said would create 6,000 US jobs, 2,000 of them in Texas.
• 13 Oct 2026 — Avio rocket-motor agreement. Lockheed signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Avio for solid rocket motors.
• 09 Oct 2026 — Dividend raised to $3.60. The Q4 2026 dividend rose $0.15, the 24th consecutive annual increase, and is payable 31 Dec 2026. The same day, Lockheed unveiled the PAC-3 Edge interceptor.
• 01 Oct 2026 — Q3 date set. Lockheed will report Q3 2026 results on 22 Oct, before the market opens.
• 21 Sep 2026 — PrSM Increment 2 contract. The Army awarded an IDIQ worth up to $1.2bn after a second maritime test.
• 18 Sep 2026 — Germany’s first F-35A. Germany’s first F-35A rolled out at Fort Worth.
• 17 Sep 2026 — AIM-260 and PAC-3 supply. A framework agreement with the Department of War aims to accelerate AIM-260 JATM production, and GM Defense delivered its first PAC-3 MSE components.
• 09 Sep 2026 — JASSM/LRASM modification. An $826m modification took the large-lot contract to about $10.46bn.
• 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results and guidance raise. Net sales rose 11% to $20.1bn and GAAP EPS was $7.94, and backlog hit a record $230.4bn. EPS guidance rose to $29.95–30.65 and FCF guidance to $7.0–7.2bn, while F-35 deliveries fell to 19 from 50.
• 06 Jul 2026 — Ultra Maritime deal. Lockheed agreed to buy Ultra Maritime from Advent for $3.45bn, adding the business to RMS.

Budget and macro releases that move defence stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 22 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results before the market opens, conference call 8:30am ET
• 01 Dec 2026 — record date (and listed ex-dividend date) for the $3.60 Q4 2026 dividend
• 31 Dec 2026 — Q4 2026 dividend payable
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance (FY2025 results were released on 29 Jan 2026)
• TBC — completion of the $3.45bn Ultra Maritime acquisition, subject to regulatory approval

The FY2027 US defence appropriations timetable remains uncertain; a continuing resolution would limit new starts and production-rate increases.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Last Updated: 19 Oct 2026

RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence companies, operating through three businesses: Collins Aerospace (avionics, aerostructures and aircraft systems), Pratt & Whitney (commercial and military jet engines) and Raytheon (missiles, air-defence systems and radars). FY2025 sales reached a record $88.6bn, and in July 2026 management raised its 2026 outlook to $95.0–96.0bn of adjusted sales and $7.10–7.25 of adjusted EPS. Since then Raytheon has booked a run of multi-year munitions contracts, including up to $24.4bn for SM-6 and $20.7bn for AMRAAM. This refreshed report covers results through Q2 2026, the balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026, valuation and risks, using company releases and SEC filings only. Q3 2026 results are due on 20 Oct 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record backlog: Backlog rose to $289bn at 30 Jun 2026 from $268bn at year end, with defence backlog up 22% year on year to $119bn. The 10-K expects about a quarter of year-end backlog to convert to sales within 12 months.
• Multi-year munitions awards: Since late September Raytheon has announced a $20.7bn AMRAAM multi-year contract, an SM-6 contract worth up to $24.4bn and a $6.3bn SM-3 Block IB award, plus $729m of counter-drone orders.
• Guidance raised: In July management lifted 2026 adjusted sales guidance to $95.0–96.0bn (from $92.5–93.5bn) and adjusted EPS to $7.10–7.25 (from $6.70–6.90), after Q2 adjusted EPS rose 21% to $1.89.
• Engine franchise and aftermarket: Pratt & Whitney delivered the first GTF Advantage-powered aircraft to United on 24 Sep 2026. GTF orders and commitments took the engine backlog past 8,000, and aircraft on ground fell 25% year to date.
• Cash generation: FY2025 free cash flow was $7.94bn (operating cash flow $10.57bn less capex $2.63bn), and 2026 guidance is $8.50–8.75bn while the dividend grows.

Bear Case

• Premium multiple: At $193.92 the shares trade on ~34x trailing GAAP EPS and ~27x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, well above Lockheed Martin’s ~18x forward multiple on its own guidance.
• GTF powder-metal overhang: The PW1100G-JM inspection programme still leaves aircraft grounded and drives shop visits, customer compensation and costs, and the 10-K warns that estimates rest on assumptions that could change.
• Debt load: Total debt was ~$37.4bn at 30 Jun 2026, against ~$9.0bn of cash and marketable securities, and the current portion has risen to $5.3bn.
• Insider selling: Every 2026 Form 4 transaction found is a sale or an option exercise and sale, including ~$13.0m by the CEO in Feb and ~$7.4m by the CFO. No open-market purchases were found.
• Government and compliance exposure: 38% of 2025 sales went to the US government. RTX also operates under DOJ deferred prosecution agreements, an SEC order and a State Department ITAR consent agreement with an independent compliance officer.

3. Business Segments

RTX reports three segments. Percentages use FY2025 segment sales of $91,155m before inter-segment eliminations of −$2,552m; consolidated sales were $88,603m. International customers made up 47% of 2025 sales.

In Q2 2026 segment sales were $8,889m at Pratt & Whitney, $8,210m at Collins and $8,269m at Raytheon.

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Commercial revenue comes from selling engines and aircraft systems to Airbus, Boeing and other airframers, often at thin or negative margins, and then earning higher-margin aftermarket revenue from spare parts, overhauls and long-term service agreements over decades of flying. Defence revenue comes mainly from US and allied government contracts for missiles, radars and engines. They are a mix of cost-plus and fixed-price work, increasingly on multi-year terms.

Installed base. The installed fleet of Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins systems keeps generating aftermarket demand for as long as the aircraft fly. With the engine backlog above 8,000 units, the GTF base will keep growing for years.

Moat. Few companies can certify a large commercial engine or a combat-proven interceptor, so RTX’s positions on platforms like GTF-powered narrowbodies, the F-35 (via F135) and Patriot are hard to displace. Switching costs, export approvals and long qualification cycles protect these positions. The weak points are execution (the GTF powder-metal problem) and dependence on government budgets.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures are from RTX’s Q4 earnings releases and SEC XBRL filings. Long-term debt is the non-current balance-sheet amount at year end (long-term debt and finance lease obligations, excluding the current portion).

Dividends are declared per share as reported in SEC XBRL. FY2021 growth is measured against FY2020 sales of $56,587m, which were affected by the pandemic. FY2023 GAAP sales and EPS include the Q3 2023 powder-metal charge; adjusted sales that year were $74.3bn.

Quarterly progression, most recent first, with the FY2025 total in bold:

Quarterly adjusted EPS sums to $6.28 against the reported $6.29 because of rounding. Over the four quarters to 30 Jun 2026, sales were ~$93.5bn, GAAP EPS ~$5.68 and adjusted EPS ~$6.92. The gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS is mostly acquisition accounting adjustments (about $0.27–$0.28 a quarter in 2025) plus restructuring and other significant items.

Cash flow and balance sheet. All figures are from SEC XBRL filings (FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q).

• Operating cash flow: $10.57bn in FY2025; ~$14.21bn trailing twelve months to 30 Jun 2026 (H1 2025 was depressed at $1.76bn, partly by a four-week Pratt & Whitney strike).
• Capital expenditure: $2.63bn in FY2025; ~$2.80bn trailing twelve months.
• Depreciation & amortisation: $4.38bn in FY2025 (of which ~$2.1bn amortisation of acquired intangibles); ~$4.40bn trailing twelve months.
• Debt at 30 Jun 2026: long-term debt and finance leases of $31,858m non-current plus $5,296m current, and short-term borrowings of $229m, ~$37.4bn in total.
• Cash at 30 Jun 2026: cash and equivalents $8,305m plus marketable securities $711m, ~$9.0bn in total. Shareholders’ equity was $66.4bn.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, October 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

RTX’s investment is split between ramping production of munitions and air-defence systems for the US and its allies, and improving the durability of the engines that drive its commercial aftermarket.

• Interceptors and missiles: SM-6 (up to $24.4bn over five years plus two option years, 01 Oct 2026), SM-3 Block IB ($6.3bn, 08 Oct 2026), SM-3 Block IIA ($745m, 10 Aug 2026), AMRAAM ($20.7bn multi-year, 28 Sep 2026) and a seven-year Tomahawk contract (17 Aug 2026). The Raytheon–Rafael joint venture delivered its first US-made Tamir interceptors on 09 Oct 2026.
• Air and missile defence radars: LTAMDS, the new radar for the Patriot system, received a $1.03bn production modification in Feb 2026 and a $904.6m low-rate production modification in Apr 2026. SPY-6 naval radars won $1.8bn in Jul 2026, and Raytheon was selected on 15 Oct 2026 to modernise US Space Force early-warning radars.
• Counter-drone: The Coyote Block 2C+RM interceptor passed three tests (12 Oct 2026), and $729m of counter-drone contracts from the US, Qatar and Jordan followed on 13 Oct 2026.
• Engines: The GTF Advantage entered service with United on 24 Sep 2026. On the F135, the Engine Core Upgrade completed a risk-reduction design review on 15 Sep 2026, and a $1.3bn sustainment contract was awarded on 31 Jul 2026.
• Hypersonics and new propulsion: The US Air Force confirmed a flight test of the HACM hypersonic cruise missile with Australia on 05 Oct 2026, with fielding targeted for FY2027 after delays. Pratt & Whitney is also testing hybrid-electric and small-engine demonstrators.

Track the defence and aerospace sector on ChartsView’s Live Charts.

8. Competitive Landscape

RTX competes with GE Aerospace and Safran in commercial aero engines and systems and with Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics for defence budgets. Lockheed is also a major customer, via the F135 engine for the F-35, and a partner on some programmes. Market caps are 16 Oct 2026 closes, and metrics come from each company’s FY2025 results release.

9. Leadership & Insider Activity

Christopher T. Calio is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Neil G. Mitchill Jr. is CFO. On 15 Sep 2026 RTX named Jill Albertelli President of Pratt & Whitney from 01 Jan 2027, succeeding Shane Eddy, who retires and stays as an adviser until Mar 2027. Amy Comer becomes President of Pratt & Whitney Military Engines on the same date. Form 4 filings show no open-market insider purchases in 2026. The transactions below are sales, several following option or SAR exercises.

Other Feb 2026 sales after option exercises came from Shane Eddy (17,527 shares, ~$3.49m), Kevin DaSilva (8,136 shares, ~$1.64m) and Amy Johnson (8,088 shares, ~$1.58m). Discuss insider activity with other members on the ChartsView Forum.

10. Key Risks

• GTF powder-metal programme (Operational): Accelerated removals and inspections of PW1100G-JM engines keep aircraft grounded and require shop visits and customer compensation. The 10-K flags possible further liquidated damages, ramp and supplier delays, and the chance that other engine models are affected.
• Fixed-price contracts (Financial): Some defence work, including fixed-price development, leaves RTX carrying cost overruns. The Department of War is also changing its contracting terms, including more OTAs and demands for intellectual-property disclosure.
• Government budgets (Macro): The US government accounted for 38% of 2025 sales. Continuing resolutions, shutdowns or shifts in priorities can delay new starts and production increases, and the new multi-year munitions awards depend on annual appropriations.
• Trade and supply chain (Macro): Tariffs and counter-tariffs, sanctions and export controls weigh on a business with 47% international sales and global supply chains. RTX cited tariffs when it cut 2025 EPS guidance in Jul 2025.
• Legal and compliance (Regulatory): RTX operates under DOJ deferred prosecution agreements, an Oct 2024 SEC order over Raytheon and Thales-Raytheon Systems payments, and a three-year ITAR consent agreement with an independent Special Compliance Officer. A breach could bring penalties or debarment, and Q2 2026 included a $69m litigation charge.
• Balance sheet items (Financial): ~$37.4bn of debt, pension assumptions and large goodwill and intangible balances from past acquisitions expose earnings to interest-rate moves and impairment.

11. Recent Developments

• 15 Oct 2026 — Early-warning radar win. Raytheon was selected to modernise US Space Force early-warning radars.
• 13 Oct 2026 — Counter-drone orders. Raytheon received $729m of counter-drone contracts from the US, Qatar and Jordan, a day after three successful tests of Coyote Block 2C+RM.
• 09 Oct 2026 — First US-made Tamir. The Raytheon–Rafael joint venture R2S delivered its first US-built Tamir interceptors.
• 08 Oct 2026 — SM-3 Block IB contract. Raytheon was awarded a $6.3bn multi-year contract for SM-3 Block IB interceptors.
• 01 Oct 2026 — SM-6 contract up to $24.4bn. A five-year contract plus two option years for SM-6 interceptors. The same day, Amy Comer was named President of Pratt & Whitney Military Engines from 01 Jan 2027.
• 29 Sep 2026 — Q3 date set. RTX said it will report Q3 2026 results on 20 Oct before the market opens, and announced an expansion of Collins’ Des Moines engine-components facility.
• 28 Sep 2026 — AMRAAM multi-year. Raytheon won a $20.7bn multi-year AMRAAM contract.
• 24 Sep 2026 — GTF Advantage enters service. The first GTF Advantage-powered aircraft was delivered to United Airlines.
• 15 Sep 2026 — Pratt & Whitney succession. Jill Albertelli was named President of Pratt & Whitney from 01 Jan 2027, and the F135 Engine Core Upgrade completed its risk-reduction design review.
• 23 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results and guidance raise. Sales rose 14% to $24.7bn and adjusted EPS 21% to $1.89, and free cash flow was $2.88bn. Adjusted EPS guidance rose to $7.10–7.25. RTX also agreed to sell Blue Canyon Technologies to MDA Space for about $620m.

Macro releases that move defence and industrial stocks are tracked on the Economic Calendar.

12. Key Dates

• 20 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results before the market opens, conference call 8:30am ET
• Expected Oct 2026 — Q4 2026 dividend declaration (last year declared on 30 Oct 2025, paid 11 Dec 2025)
• Expected by end of 2026 — completion of the ~$620m sale of Blue Canyon Technologies to MDA Space, subject to approvals
• 01 Jan 2027 — Jill Albertelli becomes President of Pratt & Whitney and Amy Comer President of Pratt & Whitney Military Engines
• Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with the 2027 outlook (FY2025 results were released on 27 Jan 2026)

The 2027 annual meeting date has not been announced.

Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cohort plc (LSE: CHRT) is the parent company of seven independent, entrepreneurial defence-technology businesses — Chess, EID, ELAC SONAR, EM Solutions, MASS, MCL and SEA — supplying communications, intelligence, sensors and effector systems to navies, armed forces and government agencies in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Australia and international markets. The Group has been admitted to London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) since March 2006. For the year to 30 April 2025 it delivered record revenue of £270.0m, adjusted operating profit of £27.5m (a 10.2% adjusted operating margin) and free cash flow of £38.0m, with a record closing order book of £616.4m (per the FY2025 Annual Report, published August 2025; FCF per yfinance annual financials, pulled 2026-05-31). In its FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026) the Group reported unaudited revenue of approximately £303m and adjusted operating profit of approximately £36.0m, both ahead of market expectations, with the order book at a new record of £620m. Audited FY2026 results are scheduled for 15 July 2026.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record order book provides multi-year revenue visibility. Per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026), the closing order book reached a record £620m (FY2025: £616.4m), with the on-order revenue horizon extending into the mid-2030s. The Group stated the order book underpins approximately £253m (around 80%) of FY2027 market-consensus revenue.

• Both headline metrics came in ahead of expectations in FY2026. Per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026), unaudited revenue rose approximately 12% to about £303m and adjusted operating profit rose to about £36.0m, an 11.9% adjusted margin, both described by the Group as ahead of market expectations.

• Communications & Intelligence is scaling and improving margin. Per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026), the Communications & Intelligence division grew revenue 27% to £159m with an operating margin of approximately 20% (FY2025: £125.4m at 16.8%), helped by a full-year contribution from EM Solutions.

• Long, unbroken dividend record. Per the FY2025 Annual Report (published August 2025), the dividend was increased 10% and has been raised in every year since the Group's IPO in 2006. Strong cash generation supported this, with operating cash conversion of 114% in FY2025.

• Strategic expansion into Australia via EM Solutions.

Bear Case

• Sensors & Effectors revenue and margin are under pressure. Per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026), Sensors & Effectors revenue declined approximately 1% to £144m (FY2025: £147.1m) at an operating margin of approximately 7.0%, materially below the Communications & Intelligence division's margin.

• First-half FY2026 profit and EPS fell year on year. Per the H1 FY2026 interim results (six months to 31 October 2025, announced 9 December 2025), adjusted operating profit slipped to £9.7m (H1 FY2025: £10.1m) and adjusted earnings per share fell to 16.16p (H1 FY2025: 20.00p), reflecting a higher weighted average share count after an equity placing.

• Net cash position has swung to net debt intra-year. Per the H1 FY2026 interim results (announced 9 December 2025), the Group moved from net funds of £5.3m at 30 April 2025 to net debt of £32.5m at 31 October 2025, driven by planned capital expenditure and a working-capital build; FY2026 year-end net funds recovered to £2.9m (per the FY2026 trading update, RNS, 27 May 2026).

• Customer and budget concentration in government defence. Per the FY2025 Annual Report (published August 2025), the Group depends heavily on government defence budgets and a small number of large customers (including the UK Ministry of Defence and allied navies); 53% of FY2025 revenue came from naval customers.

• Premium earnings multiple leaves little margin for error.

3. What Does Cohort Actually Do?

Cohort is a holding company that owns seven independent defence and security technology businesses and groups them into two reporting divisions. Segment revenue is shown below.

Source: FY2025 figures and FY2026 unaudited figures per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026); Group total FY2025 per the FY2025 Annual Report (published August 2025). Divisional revenue is reported before intra-group eliminations and so does not sum exactly to the Group total.

The Communications & Intelligence division supplies electronic warfare, digital services and training (MASS), advanced surveillance and electronic systems for UK government end users including the MoD (MCL), naval and military communications systems (EID, based in Portugal), and high-end satellite-communications terminals for navy and maritime customers (EM Solutions, based in Australia). The Sensors & Effectors division supplies technology-based products for defence and transport markets plus research and training (SEA), surveillance, fire-control and positioning systems (Chess), and sonar systems and underwater communications (ELAC SONAR, based in Germany). Across both divisions the common thread is mission-critical hardware and software for the maritime, land and intelligence domains, with naval customers accounting for 53% of FY2025 revenue (per the FY2025 Annual Report, published August 2025).

Geographic split: international revenue (sales outside the UK, Australia, Germany and Portugal) was £90.7m in FY2025 (FY2024: £74.4m), per the FY2025 Annual Report (published August 2025). A fuller country-by-country breakdown is not disclosed in this report's source data.

4. The Business Model

Cohort operates a decentralised, federated model: each of the seven subsidiaries retains its own management, brand and customer relationships, while the listed parent provides capital allocation, governance and acquisition firepower (per the FY2025 Annual Report, published August 2025). Revenue is predominantly project- and contract-based — design, manufacture, supply and through-life support of defence equipment — supplemented by long-duration service and support contracts that build recurring, visible revenue. The 15-year Maritime Sensor Enhancement Team support contract won by SEA from Thales UK (announced May 2025) is an example of the long-tail support work that lengthens the order book.

The Group's competitive moat rests on specialised, accredited defence technology, long qualification cycles, sovereign and security-cleared supply positions (UK, German, Portuguese and Australian national programmes), and high switching costs once equipment is embedded in a navy or army platform. Distribution is direct to governments, prime contractors (such as Thales and BAE Systems) and allied defence ministries. Unit economics differ by division: Communications & Intelligence earned an operating margin of approximately 20% in FY2026, while Sensors & Effectors earned approximately 7.0% (per the FY2026 trading update, RNS, 27 May 2026). Cash conversion has been strong, at 114% of profit in FY2025 (per the FY2025 Annual Report, published August 2025). Growth is delivered both organically and through bolt-on acquisitions funded by internal cash and debt facilities, including the new £175m five-year banking facility referenced in the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026).

5. Financial Health

Five-year trend (FY2022–FY2026; figures in £m unless stated). FY2022–FY2025 operating profit, net income and diluted EPS are statutory figures per yfinance annual financials; FY2026 is unaudited and only the figures disclosed in the trading update are shown.

Source: FY2022–FY2025 per yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31); FY2026 revenue and adjusted operating profit per the FY2026 trading update (RNS, 27 May 2026).

Balance sheet (FY2022–FY2025; £m):

Source: yfinance annual financials (pulled 2026-05-31). The Group reported net funds (cash less borrowings, excluding lease liabilities) of £5.3m at 30 April 2025 (per the FY2025 Annual Report, published August 2025).

Half-year trend (Cohort reports semi-annually; quarterly figures are not disclosed for AIM companies):

Source: H1 FY2026 interim results (announced 9 December 2025). Directionally, Group revenue has grown strongly across the five years (more than doubling from FY2022 to FY2026), driven by both organic growth and acquisitions, while first-half FY2026 profit dipped year on year and the Group carried net debt at the half-year stage before returning to a small net-funds position by 30 April 2026.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Cohort's forward pipeline is anchored by its record £620m order book and a run of recently announced contract wins across the Group (per the FY2026 trading update, RNS, 27 May 2026, and company announcements). Per company announcements, Portuguese subsidiary EID secured a €42.3m contract in March 2026 to supply Integrated Communication Systems and Networks to the Portuguese Navy's new fleet, with deliveries scheduled through 2029; UK subsidiary MCL announced contract wins totalling £17.9m in January 2026, including a £14.0m UK government order for uncrewed air systems plus two years of in-service support, and a £3.9m order for tactical audio systems; and SEA won a 15-year Maritime Sensor Enhancement Team support contract from Thales UK (announced May 2025) covering maintenance and inspection of the Royal Navy's towed-array handling equipment.

Strategically, the Group is investing in capacity, including a new ELAC SONAR facility in Germany that drove much of the first-half FY2026 capital expenditure (per the H1 FY2026 interim results, announced 9 December 2025), and continues to pursue bolt-on acquisitions following the EM Solutions deal, supported by the new £175m five-year banking facility (per the FY2026 trading update, RNS, 27 May 2026). Management has guided that increased deliveries are expected to drive profit growth, and the order book underpins approximately 80% of FY2027 consensus revenue (per the FY2026 trading update, RNS, 27 May 2026). No internal management revenue or profit forecasts beyond these disclosures are included in this report's source data.

8. Competitive Landscape

Cohort competes with larger UK and European defence contractors as both a rival and, frequently, a sub-system supplier to them. Peer market data (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-31):

Footnote on currency: market cap, revenue and ratios for Avon Technologies are reported in US dollars and for Rheinmetall in euros; the remaining companies are reported in pounds sterling. Figures are not FX-converted and are therefore not directly comparable across currencies.

Cohort is among the smaller listed UK defence players by revenue and market capitalisation, positioned below QinetiQ, Babcock and BAE Systems but operating in specialised maritime, sonar, communications and electronic-warfare niches where it supplies both end customers and primes. Its FY2025 gross margin of 33.5% sits above the larger systems integrators (Babcock, BAE Systems, QinetiQ) but below specialist peers such as Chemring. No view is offered here on relative winners or losers.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Andrew (Andy) Thomis is Chief Executive of Cohort, a role he assumed after succeeding co-founder Stanley Carter; he was a director at flotation and previously Managing Director of subsidiary MASS (per the company's Board of Directors page). Simon Walther is Finance Director, and Nick Prest CBE chairs the Board (per the company's Board of Directors page). Detailed individual executive tenures and remuneration are set out in the FY2025 Annual Report and are not fully reproduced in this report's source data.

Ownership is characterised by a high level of insider and founder holding alongside UK institutional investors. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-31), insiders hold approximately 24.5% and institutions approximately 47.8% across 88 institutional holders. Per public shareholding disclosures (pulled 2026-05-31), co-founder Stanley Carter remains the largest individual shareholder with approximately 19.45%, and shares not in public hands stood at 27.30% as at 30 June 2025.

Other named significant managers in the shareholder register include Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, Liontrust Investment Partners, Rathbones Investment Management, Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management and Herald Investment Management (per public shareholding disclosures, pulled 2026-05-31). A full top-ten institutional register with precise percentages is not disclosed in this report's source data. Recent insider transactions are not disclosed in this report's source data.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Dependence on government defence budgets (Market & Demand): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), the Group's revenue is heavily dependent on UK, German, Portuguese, Australian and allied government defence spending, which is subject to political priorities, fiscal pressure and programme timing.
• Customer concentration (Concentration): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), a significant proportion of revenue comes from a small number of large customers, including the UK Ministry of Defence and allied navies, with 53% of FY2025 revenue from naval customers; loss or delay of a major programme would have a material impact.
• Contract execution and fixed-price delivery (Operational): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), many contracts are fixed-price and technically complex, exposing the Group to cost-overrun, delivery and performance risk, a factor in the Sensors & Effectors margin pressure seen in FY2025 and FY2026.
• Acquisition integration (Operational): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), the Group's growth strategy relies on acquisitions such as EM Solutions, which carry integration, cultural and financial-control risks.
• Skilled-people availability (Operational): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), the business depends on attracting and retaining security-cleared engineers and specialists in a competitive labour market.
• Export controls and regulation (Regulatory): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), international sales are subject to export-licensing, ITAR-style controls and sanctions regimes, the breach of which could result in penalties or loss of licences.
• Information and cyber security (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), the Group handles classified and sensitive information, making cyber-attack and data compromise a material operational and reputational risk.
• Foreign-exchange exposure (Financial): Per the FY2025 Annual Report (Principal Risks, published August 2025), with subsidiaries in Germany, Portugal and Australia and significant export revenue, the Group is exposed to currency movements that it manages through forward contracts.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 27 May 2026 — FY2026 full-year trading update, ahead of expectations: Cohort reported unaudited revenue of approximately £303m (+12%) and adjusted operating profit of approximately £36.0m (11.9% margin) for the year to 30 April 2026, both ahead of market expectations, with a record order book of £620m, order intake of £313m, year-end net funds of £2.9m and a new £175m five-year banking facility. Source: Cohort plc RNS (Investegate / Equity Development).

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 15 July 2026: FY2026 audited final results announcement (year to 30 April 2026). Source: Equity Development note, May 2026.
• Approximately September 2026: Annual General Meeting (FY2026). Date not yet confirmed in this report's source data; the FY2025 AGM was held on 25 September 2025.
• Approximately August–October 2026: FY2026 final dividend ex-dividend and payment dates. Not yet confirmed in this report's source data; for FY2025 the final dividend was paid on 3 October 2025.

Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.

Filtronic plc (LSE: FTC) is a UK AIM-listed radio-frequency (RF) technology company that designs and manufactures products for the aerospace, defence, space and telecommunications infrastructure markets (per Filtronic's FY2025 final results, year ended 31 May 2025, and the yfinance company description, pulled 2026-05-26). For the fiscal year ended 31 May 2025 the Company reported revenue of £56.3 million (+121% year over year from £25.4 million), operating profit of £13.4 million (+272% from £3.6 million), adjusted EBITDA of £17.0 million (FY2024 £4.9 million) and profit for the year of £14.0 million (per Filtronic's FY2025 final results). Net income was £14.0 million and diluted EPS was 6.05 pence (per yfinance annual financials). FY2026 full-year results (year ending 31 May 2026) are expected in the UK summer reporting window; the exact date is not disclosed in this report's source data. All figures are in pounds sterling (GBP); yfinance reports per-share prices in pence (GBp).

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Revenue more than doubled in FY2025 to £56.3 million. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results (year ended 31 May 2025): revenue rose 121% from £25.4 million (FY2024) to £56.3 million (FY2025), building on 56% growth in the prior year. The Chief Executive's review attributes the growth to delivery against the Company's growth strategy and increased demand from its key customer in the space sector.
• Operating-profit and EBITDA inflection. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: operating profit rose 272% from £3.6 million (FY2024) to £13.4 million (FY2025), and adjusted EBITDA rose to £17.0 million (FY2024: £4.9 million). The results attribute margin improvement to a more favourable sales mix, including a reduced proportion of low-margin 5G telecommunications equipment.
• Strong cash generation and balance sheet. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: cash at bank rose to £14.5 million at 31 May 2025 (FY2024: £7.2 million); net cash (excluding right-of-use property leases) was £12.3 million (FY2024: £5.2 million); cash generated from operating activities was £13.8 million (FY2024: £6.3 million). The Group holds an undrawn £5.0 million revolving credit facility with Santander UK plc signed in October 2024.
• Strategic partnership with SpaceX expanded. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the initial strategic partnership with SpaceX was signed in April 2024 and was expanded in FY2025 for further alignment of E-band technology; the final results describe this as the enabler for the 121% revenue growth. New space-sector wins were announced with Viasat, the European Space Agency and Airbus (for its system on the OneWeb constellation).
• Post-period order momentum and structural demand drivers. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: post period end the Company secured the largest contract in its recent history of $32.5 million (£24.0 million), following defence and satellite-communications awards from Leonardo and Airbus. The Chairman's statement cites supportive long-term structural growth drivers from the convergence of space, aerospace and defence.

Bear Case

• Single-customer concentration is high. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Company's lead customer contributed 83% of FY2025 revenue (FY2024: 48%). The results state the Company expects this concentration to decrease going forward as it executes on a growing pipeline, but the current dependence on one customer is material.
• SpaceX share warrants reduce reported revenue. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: IFRS 15 requires the SpaceX share warrants to be treated as non-cash variable consideration payable to the customer, resulting in a £1.3 million charge to revenue in FY2025 (FY2024: £nil). This is a recurring feature of the customer relationship.
• Currency headwind entering FY2026. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Company does most of its trading with customers in US dollars and entered FY2026 "facing headwinds from a weakened USD"; the outlook notes hedging is undertaken only against highly probable future cash flows and working-capital exposures.
• Small AIM-listed company — limited float and liquidity. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): float is 192.6 million shares with average daily volume of 7.1 million; AIM-listed small-caps generally trade with wider bid-ask spreads and lower analyst coverage than larger listed peers.

3. What Does Filtronic Actually Do?

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results and the yfinance company description: Filtronic designs and manufactures radio-frequency (RF) and millimetre-wave (mmWave) hardware for the space, aerospace, defence, telecoms infrastructure and critical-communications markets. The Company describes itself as operating from two manufacturing sites and three engineering centres of excellence, developing core IP building blocks and transforming them into customised RF solutions across the full RF spectrum, with a track record of over 45 years.

The pulled source data does not provide a segment revenue breakdown table. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results, revenue is discussed by end market rather than reported segment: the lead customer in the space sector contributed 83% of FY2025 revenue (FY2024: 48%); aerospace and defence revenue grew 11%; and the critical-communications market normalised following elevated levels in the prior year. A full reported-segment split is not disclosed in this report's source data.

Per the yfinance company description (pulled 2026-05-26), Filtronic's product range includes E-band transceiver modules and power amplifiers, tower-top amplifiers, transmit-and-receive modules, custom waveguide diplexers and combiners, front-end modules, GaN amplifiers, microwave and millimetre-wave transceiver products, and a range of filter products. In plain English, Filtronic builds the high-frequency RF hardware used in satellite ground-segment and payload systems, 5G millimetre-wave links and defence/aerospace RF systems — a technically demanding niche of the broader telecoms-and-defence supply chain.

4. The Business Model

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: Filtronic's model is hardware design plus UK-based manufacturing of RF and mmWave products, sold predominantly to large customers in the space, aerospace and defence markets. The results describe a manufacturing know-how — the "ability to ramp up production quickly" — developed from years of supplying the high-volume telecoms infrastructure market, which the Company states is highly valued by space and aerospace and defence customers.

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: typical sale, design-in and production cycles range from one to three years, offering long-term visibility of the customer order book. Where product development is customer-specific, the Company seeks Non-Recurring Engineering ("NRE") charges to fund the development phase and secure customer commitment; when developing its own technology roadmap and IP, it invests from its own cash reserves (£1.5 million of development costs were capitalised in FY2025, FY2024: £0.7 million). Operating costs rose 68% to £21.0 million in FY2025, with salary-related costs representing 69% of total operating costs. Engineering spend ran at 12% of revenue (FY2024: 11%).

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: margin improvement in FY2025 was driven by stronger gross profit on higher revenues and a more favourable sales mix, notably a reduced proportion of low-margin 5G telecommunications equipment. The final results do not present a statutory gross-profit subtotal; a derived gross margin of approximately 61% (gross profit £34.5M / revenue £56.3M) is available from yfinance annual financials only and is not a stated line in the results.

5. Financial Health

5-year income trend (per Filtronic's FY2025 final results for FY2025/FY2024 headline figures and yfinance annual financials for the full series; FY ends 31 May; FY2021 not in source data):

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: revenue increased 121% in FY2025, profit before taxation rose to £13.4 million (FY2024: £3.4 million) and profit for the year rose to £14.0 million (FY2024: £3.1 million). Basic EPS was 6.42p (FY2024: 1.45p) and diluted EPS was 6.05p (FY2024: 1.41p). A tax credit of £0.7 million was recognised in the year (FY2024: tax charge of £0.2 million), benefiting from R&D tax credits.

Balance sheet (per yfinance annual balance_sheet, FY ends 31 May):

Per yfinance annual balance_sheet: stockholders' equity roughly doubled from £17.4M (FY2024) to £35.4M (FY2025), and has roughly tripled from £11.0M (FY2022). Total debt (capital lease obligations) is low at £3.7M. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results, net cash excluding right-of-use property leases was £12.3 million and net cash including property leases was £10.8 million at 31 May 2025.

Quarterly trend — UK AIM-listed companies typically report only H1 (interim) and full-year results, not quarterly. yfinance does not provide quarterly income-statement financials for FTC.L in this report's source data.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results (year ended 31 May 2025):

• GaN technology transition. The Company is transitioning core technologies from Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) to Gallium Nitride (GaN), which it states enables higher power, improved efficiency and greater thermal performance for aerospace, defence and satellite-communications applications. The results state that FY2026 will see the launch of a range of products based on GaN technology.
• Higher-frequency RF bands and Prometheus. The Company expanded development into higher-frequency RF bands, most notably V Band, and launched Prometheus, which it describes as the highest-power Solid State Power Amplifier ("SSPA") on the market, capable of very high frequency communications for geostationary satellites.
• Semiconductor chipset platform. Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results, the Chief Executive's review states the Company anticipates "the newly launched Prometheus V band amplifier and the development of a semiconductor chipset platform for rollout in early 2026 will both be important avenues of future growth" (forward-looking statement attributed to the Company).
• New Sedgefield manufacturing facility. The move to a new custom-built facility in Sedgefield was underway for completion in H1 FY2026, doubling the Group's UK manufacturing footprint to meet growing demand.
• Customer diversification. The Company states it is determined to diversify its customer base in FY2026, with announced space wins from Viasat / European Space Agency and Airbus (OneWeb), and aerospace and defence awards including Leonardo, plus revenue to be recognised from prior-year contracts with the European Space Agency, BAE Maritime and QinetiQ.

8. Competitive Landscape

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: Filtronic operates in the space, aerospace, defence, telecoms infrastructure and critical-communications markets, positioning itself as a specialist in high-frequency RF and mmWave solutions across the full RF spectrum, supported by an extensive patent portfolio. The competitive niche is that of E-band and higher-frequency RF specialists supplying satellite and defence prime contractors. No peer market data is contained in this report's source data, so the peer rows below are not populated.

The peer market-data rows above are not disclosed in this report's source data. Filtronic's competitive positioning rests on its RF and mmWave IP, UK manufacturing capability, over-45-year track record and patent portfolio, as described in its FY2025 final results.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Company is led by Nat Edington (Chief Executive Officer) and Michael Tyerman (Chief Financial Officer), with Jonathan Neale serving as Chairman (both the Chairman's statement and the Chief Executive's review in the FY2025 final results are dated 28 July 2025). The results note new leadership-team appointments during the year, including a new Chief Commercial Officer.

Per yfinance institutional_holders (pulled 2026-05-26): the largest reported holding by name is the Manager Directed Portfolios — Hood River International Opportunity Fund at 0.68% (1,496,763 shares, reported 2026-04-30). Other reported holders are T. Rowe Price Spectrum funds and the Avantis International Small Cap Equity ETF, each below 0.1%. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): reported institutional ownership is 28.46% and reported insider ownership is 14.02%.

Recent insider transactions (per yfinance insider_transactions, pulled 2026-05-26):

• 2026-05-18: David John and Monique Newlands — 1,895,750 shares, disposition ("D"); no monetary value disclosed in this report's source data.
• 2026-04-29: Diana Marguerite Dixon — 5,000,000 shares, disposition ("D"); no monetary value disclosed in this report's source data.
• 2026-04-23: John Bernard Behrendt — 30,000 shares sold at 3.74 per share (value £112,320 per yfinance).
• 2026-04-21: Jonathan Neale — 65,151 shares sold at 3.31 per share (value £215,584 per yfinance).
• 2026-04-17: David John and Monique Newlands — 2,141,750 shares, disposition ("D"); no monetary value disclosed in this report's source data.

10. Risks and Challenges

• Single-customer concentration (Concentration): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results (year ended 31 May 2025): the lead customer contributed 83% of FY2025 revenue (FY2024: 48%). The results state "while our lead customer accounts for a significant percentage of our revenue in FY2025, we expect this concentration to decrease going forward as we execute on a growing pipeline of opportunities elsewhere in the market".
• Order-driven, lumpy revenue (Market & Demand): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: revenue moved from £17.1m (FY2022) to £25.4m (FY2024) to £56.3m (FY2025), with sale, design-in and production cycles of one to three years; revenue is exposed to the timing of large contracts and constellation-expansion demand from the lead customer.
• SpaceX share-warrant charge to revenue (Financial): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: "IFRS 15 'Revenue from Contracts with Customer' requires the SpaceX share warrants to be treated as a non-cash variable consideration payable to the customer. Therefore, there was a charge to revenue in the year of £1.3m (2024: £nil)."
• Foreign-currency exposure (Financial): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Group "does most of its trading with customers in US dollars" and entered FY2026 "facing headwinds from a weakened USD"; hedging is undertaken only against highly probable future cash flows and working-capital exposures.
• RF engineering skills shortage (Operational): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: "Recruitment of RF engineers remains a significant industry-wide challenge"; the Company opened a Cambridge engineering site and is expanding graduate and apprenticeship recruitment to mitigate this constraint.
• Manufacturing scale-up and facility move (Operational): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the move to a new custom-built Sedgefield facility was underway for completion in H1 FY2026, doubling the UK manufacturing footprint; scaling production to meet increased demand from the key customer required step changes in production volumes and operational complexity.
• Macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility (Market & Demand): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Company stated it "anticipate[s] continued macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility in the coming 12 months", while noting underlying demand for advanced RF and mmWave solutions remains strong.
• Warranty and dilapidation provisions (Operational): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the Group provides product warranties (warranty provision £0.2m at 31 May 2025, FY2024: £0.4m) and leases five sites requiring restoration to original condition (dilapidation provision £0.3m at 31 May 2025, FY2024: £0.0m).
• Competitive, price-sensitive telecoms equipment market (Competitive): Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results: the 5G telecommunications equipment market is "characterised by its highly competitive price sensitivity"; the Company reduced its proportion of this low-margin business in FY2025.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 2026-05-18 — Insider disposition (David John and Monique Newlands, 1,895,750 shares): Disposition ("D") recorded; no monetary value disclosed in this report's source data. Source: yfinance insider_transactions (pulled 2026-05-26).
• 2026-04-29 — Insider disposition (Diana Marguerite Dixon, 5,000,000 shares): Disposition ("D") recorded; no monetary value disclosed in this report's source data. Source: yfinance insider_transactions (pulled 2026-05-26).
• 2026-04-23 — John Bernard Behrendt sold 30,000 shares at 3.74 per share (£112,320): Open-market disposal recorded. Source: yfinance insider_transactions (pulled 2026-05-26).
• 2026-04-21 — Jonathan Neale sold 65,151 shares at 3.31 per share (£215,584): Open-market disposal recorded. Source: yfinance insider_transactions (pulled 2026-05-26).

No company news items with populated titles, publishers or links are present in this report's source data for the trailing-30-day window.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 31 May 2026 — FY2026 fiscal year-end: FY2026 closes at the end of May 2026 (per yfinance lastFiscalYearEnd / nextFiscalYearEnd). The completion of the new Sedgefield facility was scheduled for H1 FY2026 per Filtronic's FY2025 final results.
• FY2026 full-year results: Expected in the UK summer reporting window; the exact date is not disclosed in this report's source data. (For reference, the FY2025 final results were dated 28 July 2025 per Filtronic's FY2025 final results.)
• FY2026 GaN product range launch: Per Filtronic's FY2025 final results, a range of products based on GaN technology is expected to launch in 2026; the exact date is not disclosed in this report's source data.

Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.

Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) is a US Earth-observation satellite operator that designs, builds, launches and operates a constellation of imaging satellites and sells the resulting geospatial data and analytics over a cloud platform via subscription and usage-based contracts (per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-23). For the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 the Company reported revenue of $307.7 million, up about 26% from $244.4 million in FY2025 (per yfinance annual financials), an operating loss of -$95.1 million (per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss, 10-K period ending 2026-01-31), and a net loss of -$246.9 million (per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23). Operating cash flow was +$134.4 million in FY2026 (per yfinance annual cashflow). The stock last traded at $44.35 against a 52-week range of $3.66 to $45.78 — roughly a 12-fold range with the price near the high (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26). The next earnings release (Q1 FY2027) is scheduled for 2026-06-04 (per yfinance earningsTimestamp). Planet Labs employed 945 people as of the most recent disclosure (per yfinance fullTimeEmployees, pulled 2026-05-26).

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Revenue grew about 26% in FY2026 with the operating loss narrowing. Per yfinance annual financials: revenue of $307.7M (FY2026) was up from $244.4M (FY2025), $220.7M (FY2024) and $191.3M (FY2023). Per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss and yfinance annual financials, the operating loss narrowed from -$175.7M (FY2023) to -$95.1M (FY2026).
• High, expanding gross margin for a data-platform business. Per yfinance annual financials: FY2026 gross profit was $172.5M on revenue of $307.7M, a 56.0% gross margin, up from 57.2% expressed differently in prior years (gross profit $139.7M on $244.4M in FY2025). Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): the Company sells data licences over a cloud platform under a one-to-many subscription model, so most revenue is recurring.
• Operating cash flow turned positive in FY2026. Per yfinance annual cashflow (FY2026): operating cash flow was +$134.4M, after -$14.4M in FY2025 and -$50.7M in FY2024. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totalled $640.1M at FY2026 year-end (per yfinance annual balance sheet, 2026-01-31).
• Strategic shareholder Alphabet is the largest holder. Per yfinance institutional_holders (reported 2026-03-31, pulled 2026-05-26): Alphabet Inc. holds 10.92% of Planet Labs (35,248,893 shares) — the single largest disclosed holder.
• Recurring, mission-proven data archive and satellite-services revenue. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): Planet has built a "non-replicable historical archive" of over 3,000 images on average for every point on Earth's landmass and also earns long-term milestone-based satellite-services revenue from government and enterprise customers using its standardised bus architecture.

Bear Case

• Net loss widened to -$246.9M in FY2026. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): "We have a history of operating losses, having generated net losses of $246.9 million, $123.2 million and $140.5 million for our fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively. As of January 31, 2026, we had an accumulated deficit of $1,449.9 million."
• Stock at extreme revenue multiples after a roughly 12x run. Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): P/S TTM is 51.36, P/B is 78.91 and EV/Revenue is 49.31; the share price has risen from a 52-week low of $3.66 to $44.35.
• Material new debt issuance in FY2026. Per yfinance annual balance sheet: total debt rose from $21.6M (FY2025) to $462.5M (FY2026). Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the Company carries risks related to servicing its indebtedness and to the indenture governing its 2030 Notes.
• Insider selling around the share-price run. Per insider_transactions via yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): CEO William Spencer Marshall sold 200,000 shares at $35.07 on 2026-04-06 (~$7.01M); Officer and Director Robert H. Schingler sold 73,683 shares at $35.07 (~$2.58M); President Ashley Fieglein Johnson sold 200,000 shares at $34.76-$35.22 on 2026-04-02 (~$7.02M); Director Ita M. Brennan sold 36,500 shares at $33.91 on 2026-04-15 (~$1.24M).
• Reliance on large government and enterprise contracts. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the summary of risk factors lists "our reliance on contracts with large enterprises and U.S. and foreign governmental entities" and "the impact of disruptions in the U.S. government's operations and funding" among the principal risks.

3. What Does Planet Labs Actually Do?

Planet Labs designs, builds, launches and operates its own imaging satellites, then sells the resulting imagery, data and analytics over a cloud-based platform (per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-23). Per that filing: "Planet's mission is to use space to help life on Earth, by imaging the world every day and making global change visible, accessible, and actionable." The Company states it has built "a powerful and growing data set of over 3,000 images on average for every point on Earth's landmass, creating a non-replicable historical archive for analytics, machine learning, and insights."

Segment-level revenue breakdown is not disclosed in this report's source data; the data available is total revenue.

In plain English, Planet sells the answer to "what does this point on Earth look like, and how has it changed?" — as a recurring data subscription. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): the Company serves customers across "agriculture, defense and intelligence, energy, forestry, finance, insurance and mapping, as well as federal, civil, state, and local governments."

4. The Business Model

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): "We generate revenue primarily by selling licenses to our data and analytics to customers over a cloud-based platform via fixed price subscription and usage-based contracts. Most of our revenue is recurring in nature." The Company describes a one-to-many model in which captured images "can be sold and leveraged for analytics an unlimited number of times," which it contrasts with "legacy Earth observation providers that sell individual images exclusively to a single customer."

A second revenue line comes from satellite services. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): "we generate revenue through long-term milestone based satellite services arrangements, in which we utilize our standardized bus architecture used for our own satellites to provide large-scale government and enterprise customers with advanced offerings." The Company states that by integrating design, manufacturing and mission operations it can "significantly reduce the time from concept to orbit."

On unit economics, FY2026 gross margin was 56.0% (gross profit $172.5M on revenue $307.7M, per yfinance annual financials). Operating expenses in FY2026 were $267.6M, split into research and development of $106.7M and selling, general and administrative of $160.8M (per yfinance annual financials). The cost structure consistent with this margin is described qualitatively in the 10-K; specific fixed-versus-variable cost splits are not disclosed in this report's source data.

5. Financial Health

Multi-year income trend (per yfinance annual financials; operating income for FY2026 per EDGAR XBRL; fiscal year ends January 31):

Per yfinance annual financials and EDGAR XBRL: the operating loss has narrowed each year from FY2023 to FY2026 even as revenue increased. The FY2026 net loss of -$246.9M is wider than the operating loss; per yfinance annual financials the FY2026 result includes a $161.4M unusual / non-operating item recorded as a loss on investment securities. Specific bridge components beyond this are not disclosed in this report's source data.

Balance sheet (per yfinance annual balance sheet; fiscal year ends January 31):

Per yfinance annual balance sheet: total debt rose from $21.6M (FY2025) to $462.5M (FY2026), an increase of about $440.9M, while cash and short-term investments rose from $222.1M to $640.1M. Per yfinance annual cashflow (FY2026): the Company recorded long-term debt issuance of $448.8M during the year. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the new indebtedness relates to the Company's 2030 Notes. The FY2026 net loss also reduced stockholders' equity from $441.3M to $188.4M (per yfinance annual balance sheet).

Quarterly trend (last 5 quarters, per yfinance quarterly financials; fiscal year ends January 31):

Per yfinance quarterly financials: revenue rose sequentially in every quarter of FY2026. The Q4 FY2026 net loss of -$152.5M was the largest in the period and, per yfinance quarterly financials, included a $122.6M unusual item recorded as a loss on investment securities.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23) and the forward-looking statements section of the FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-03-23):

• Continued satellite build and launch. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the Company intends to "build and launch additional satellites, scale satellite manufacturing capacity, expand our data analytics capabilities," and notes that "Expansion of our offerings into satellite services, in particular, has led to greater uncertainty with regard to future revenue growth and related costs."
• AI-enabled data products. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): the Company has "advanced data processing capabilities that enable us to produce 'AI-ready' data sets and offer AI-enabled solutions, either directly or through partnership with third parties."
• Satellite services scale-up. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the Company is "increasingly target[ing] large-scale satellite services contracts," which it notes carry "longer and less predictable sales cycles, significant upfront costs, and complex procurement requirements."
• Q1 FY2027 earnings release on 2026-06-04. Per yfinance earningsTimestamp (pulled 2026-05-26): the next earnings release is scheduled for 2026-06-04, the first quarter of FY2027.

Specific product launch dates, named future products and quantitative roadmap milestones beyond the above are not disclosed in this report's source data.

8. Competitive Landscape

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the Company lists "our ability to compete effectively in intensely competitive markets" and "increased competition from new market entrants and alternative data sources" among its principal risks. Named competitors are not disclosed in this report's source data; peer financial data beyond Planet Labs itself was not pulled.

No opinion on positioning is expressed here. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-23): the Company differentiates itself from "legacy Earth observation providers that sell individual images exclusively to a single customer" through its one-to-many data subscription model and its historical imagery archive.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Per insider transaction filings via yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): William Spencer Marshall is Chief Executive Officer; Ashley Fieglein Johnson is President; Robert H. Schingler is an Officer and Director; Ita M. Brennan is a Director. Detailed executive tenure and biographical information is not disclosed in this report's source data (10-K Item 10 was not pulled).

Top institutional shareholders as of 2026-03-31 (per yfinance institutional_holders, pulled 2026-05-26):

Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): institutional ownership totals 79.98% and insider ownership totals 1.78%. Recent insider activity (per insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26):

• 2026-04-22: CEO William Spencer Marshall gifted 155,000 shares (stock gift at $0.00 per share).
• 2026-04-22: Officer and Director Robert H. Schingler gifted 55,000 shares (stock gift at $0.00 per share).
• 2026-04-15: Director Ita M. Brennan sold 36,500 shares at $33.91 (~$1.24M).
• 2026-04-06: CEO Marshall sold 200,000 shares at $35.07 (~$7.01M).
• 2026-04-06: Officer and Director Schingler sold 73,683 shares at $35.07 (~$2.58M).
• 2026-04-02: President Ashley Fieglein Johnson sold 200,000 shares at $34.76-$35.22 (~$7.02M).

10. Risks and Challenges

• History of significant losses (Financial): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): "We have a history of operating losses, having generated net losses of $246.9 million, $123.2 million and $140.5 million for our fiscal years ended January 31, 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively. As of January 31, 2026, we had an accumulated deficit of $1,449.9 million."
• Indebtedness and the 2030 Notes (Financial): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): the summary of risk factors lists "servicing our indebtedness," "provisions in the Indenture governing our 2030 Notes," and "counterparty risk with respect to the Capped Call Transactions." Per yfinance annual balance sheet: total debt rose from $21.6M (FY2025) to $462.5M (FY2026).
• Reliance on large enterprise and government contracts (Concentration): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): principal risks include "our reliance on contracts with large enterprises and U.S. and foreign governmental entities" and "the impact of disruptions in the U.S. government's operations and funding."
• Market for offerings may not grow as expected (Market & Demand): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): "The market for our offerings, including our satellites, satellite data, related analytics products, services, satellite services offerings, and AI-enabled solutions continues to evolve and may not be as significant as we expect."
• Satellite production, launch and infrastructure failure risk (Operational): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): principal risks include "our ability to successfully produce, launch, commission, operate and maintain our satellites and our customers' and related infrastructure on suitable timelines to our customers" and "the impact of satellite and infrastructure related failures."
• Highly regulated industry, licensing, export and trade controls (Regulatory): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): principal risks include "our ability to operate in a highly regulated industry and obtain and maintain required government licenses and other authorizations" and "our ability to comply with international trade and governmental export and import controls and economic sanctions laws and regulations."
• Intensely competitive markets and alternative data sources (Competitive): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): principal risks include "our ability to compete effectively in intensely competitive markets," and the filing notes revenue growth could slow due to "increased competition from new market entrants and alternative data sources."
• Cybersecurity and data-protection risk (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-23): principal risks include "our or our third-party service providers' ability to protect against cybersecurity related attacks."

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 2026-04-22 — CEO Marshall and Officer/Director Schingler made charitable share gifts: William Spencer Marshall (CEO) gifted 155,000 shares and Robert H. Schingler (Officer and Director) gifted 55,000 shares, both reported as stock gifts at $0.00 per share. Source: insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26.
• 2026-04-15 — Director Ita Brennan sold 36,500 shares at $33.91 (~$1.24M): Source: insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26.
• 2026-04-06 — CEO Marshall sold 200,000 shares at $35.07 (~$7.01M) and Officer/Director Schingler sold 73,683 shares at $35.07 (~$2.58M): Source: insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26.
• 2026-04-02 — President Ashley Fieglein Johnson sold 200,000 shares at $34.76-$35.22 (~$7.02M): Source: insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26.

No independently link-verifiable news or X items within the 30-day window are present in this report's source data (the recent_news feed returned empty records).

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 2026-06-04 — Q1 FY2027 earnings release: Per yfinance earningsTimestamp (pulled 2026-05-26): scheduled for 2026-06-04, the first quarter of FY2027.
• 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders: date not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Ex-dividend date: none — the Company does not pay a dividend (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26).

Risk Warning: This research is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. CFD Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Affiliate Disclosure: We may receive a commission from some links on this page at no extra cost to you. Data Disclaimer: All figures are sourced from company filings, earnings releases, and public market data as at the date above. Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company and may not be achieved. Always do your own research. Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) is a space infrastructure and services company headquartered in Houston, Texas (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 2, filed 2026-03-19), built around lunar delivery (Nova-C, Nova-D, Micro Nova Hopper), Near Space Network data relay, and — following the January 2026 close of an $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems (formerly Maxar Space Systems) — vertically integrated spacecraft manufacturing. For the year ended December 31, 2025 the Company reported revenue of $207.1 million, down approximately 9% year over year from $228.0 million (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7, filed 2026-03-19); an operating loss of -$87.2 million (per EDGAR XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss, 10-K period ending 2025-12-31); a net loss of -$83.3 million (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7); free cash flow of -$56.0 million (per yfinance annual cashflow, FY2025); and contracted backlog of $213.1 million (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7). Per Intuitive Machines' Q1 2026 earnings release (2026-05-14): Q1 2026 revenue was $186.7 million (+198.6% year over year), the Company reported its first positive Adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 million, and contracted backlog reached a record $1.1 billion following the Lanteris acquisition and a new task order — the Company reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $900M–$1B. The stock last traded at $38.26 against a 52-week range of $7.78 to $38.55 (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26), and the Company employed 525 people as of 2025-12-31 (including employees added through the October 2025 KinetX acquisition).

1. Company Snapshot

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

• Record-low Q1 2026 print with first positive Adjusted EBITDA and a 4–5x revenue step-up guided for FY2026. Per Intuitive Machines' Q1 2026 earnings release (2026-05-14): Q1 revenue was $186.7 million (+198.6% year over year), Adjusted EBITDA was a positive $2.7 million (the first positive EBITDA quarter in the Company's history), and management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $900M–$1B versus FY2025 actual of $207.1 million (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7, filed 2026-03-19).
• Record $1.1 billion contracted backlog after Lanteris. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (2026-05-14): Intuitive Machines ended Q1 2026 with a record $1.1 billion backlog, up from $213.1 million reported at FY2025 year-end (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7), reflecting the January 2026 close of the Lanteris Space Systems acquisition and a new task order — providing multi-year revenue visibility into the FY2026 guidance.
• Vertical integration via the $800M Lanteris (former Maxar Space Systems) acquisition. Per Intuitive Machines' announcement (acquisition announced 2025-11-04, closed 2026-01-13): the Company acquired Lanteris Space Systems for $800 million ($450 million cash plus $350 million in Class A common stock), positioning Intuitive Machines as a vertically integrated space prime contractor for commercial, civil and national-security space programs including Golden Dome, Space Development Agency awards and NASA lunar programs.
• Diversified NASA-anchored portfolio across CLPS, Near Space Network, LTV and heavy cargo. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): Intuitive Machines holds four CLPS lunar surface cargo delivery contracts (the second mission was in 2025); a Near Space Network (NSN) Services contract for direct-to-Earth data services and data relay to the lunar vicinity; a NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract executed through a global partnership including Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Michelin, AVL, CSIRO, Fugro and Roush; and is developing a heavy cargo lunar lander (Nova-D) and Micro Nova Hopper drone.
• Capital base materially expanded in FY2025–Q1 2026. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): the Company ended FY2025 with $582.6 million of cash and cash equivalents (up from $207.6 million at FY2024 year-end), reflecting $446.6 million of net financing activity in FY2025; per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): total cash stood at $231.6 million at Q1 2026 (post the $450 million cash leg of Lanteris).

Bear Case

• GAAP profitability remains deeply negative with low gross margin. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): FY2025 gross profit was $6.1 million on $207.1 million of revenue (a gross margin of 2.9%), operating loss was -$87.2 million (EDGAR XBRL) and net loss was -$83.3 million. The business has not yet demonstrated sustainable gross margin even though Q1 2026 hit positive Adjusted EBITDA.
• Revenue is lumpy and partly milestone-driven; FY2025 revenue actually declined year over year. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19) and yfinance annual financials: FY2025 revenue of $207.1 million was down approximately 9% from FY2024 revenue of $228.0 million, reflecting the timing of IM-1/IM-2 milestone recognition versus IM-3/IM-4 work. Per yfinance quarterly financials: revenue swung from $62.5M (Q1 2025) to $50.3M (Q2) to $51.0M (Q3) to $43.3M (Q4) to $186.7M (Q1 2026) — a pattern that is heavy on contract-milestone timing rather than smooth.
• Substantial historical and prospective dilution. Per the FY2025 10-K (balance sheet, filed 2026-03-19) and yfinance: Class A ordinary shares outstanding grew from 21.0 million at FY2023 year-end to 121.3 million at FY2025 year-end, and the Company further issued $350 million of Class A stock as part of the January 2026 Lanteris close, with total shares outstanding now approximately 160.5 million (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26). The capital structure also carries Tax Receivable Agreement obligations to pre-IPO holders (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7).
• Material insider selling concentrated in April–May 2026. Per insider transactions via yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): Director and >10% holder Kamal Ghaffarian sold approximately 425,727 shares across 2026-04-20, 2026-05-04 and 2026-05-18 at $25.00–$37.99 per share for total proceeds of approximately $12.4 million; CEO Stephen Altemus, CFO Peter McGrath, CTO Timothy Crain II and other officers sold a combined ~51,663 shares at $23.61 on 2026-04-15 for approximately $1.22 million.
• IM-2 landing anomalies illustrate ongoing mission-execution risk. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A and Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): the IM-2 mission "experienced landing anomalies that impacted our ability to complete all mission milestones" — a reminder that revenue recognition under fixed-price CLPS contracts is contingent on milestone delivery, with mission failure risk a recurring exposure across IM-3, IM-4 and future cargo missions.

3. What Does Intuitive Machines Actually Do?

Intuitive Machines is organised internally around its lunar mission flights for management purposes ("IM-1, IM-2, IM-3, IM-4") but reports as a single operating business comprising three service lines (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-19):

In plain English, Intuitive Machines is the NASA contractor that landed the first U.S. commercial spacecraft on the Moon (IM-1 in 2024, IM-2 in 2025 — both achieving soft landings, with IM-2 experiencing landing anomalies per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1A), and is now expanding from one-off lunar missions into recurring lunar relay-and-positioning services (Near Space Network), a contracted heavy-cargo lunar lander and lunar terrain vehicle, and — through the Lanteris acquisition — into manufacturing full GEO and LEO satellites for commercial and national-security customers.

A revenue split by service line / customer type beyond the qualitative commentary above is not separately disclosed in this report's source data (the FY2025 10-K segment note treats Intuitive Machines as a single reportable segment with mission-level management reporting).

4. The Business Model

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): Intuitive Machines' core business model is contracted, mostly fixed-price-per-milestone work for U.S. government (predominantly NASA) and, increasingly, Department of Defense (Space Development Agency, U.S. Space Force) and commercial customers — recognised on a percentage-of-completion basis as costs are incurred against contracted milestones. The Lanteris acquisition (closed 2026-01-13) adds a vertically integrated spacecraft-manufacturing tier alongside the legacy lunar/data-services portfolio.

The competitive moat the Company describes rests on three elements (per the FY2025 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): first, flight heritage — Intuitive Machines is the first U.S. private company to soft-land hardware on the Moon (IM-1, 2024) and to operate at the Moon's south pole; second, an integrated propulsion + GNC (guidance, navigation and control) + mission-operations stack used across the Nova-C, Nova-D and Micro Nova platforms; and third, prime-contractor positioning on the NASA NSN Services contract and the NASA LTVS contract via its global partnership team.

Unit economics are characteristic of fixed-price, milestone-driven aerospace contracts: low gross margin in early phases (FY2025 gross margin 2.9% per the FY2025 10-K, Item 7), with both upside leverage from cost discipline and downside risk from EAC adjustments or mission anomalies. Q1 2026 (per the earnings release, 2026-05-14) delivered the first quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA in the Company's history — a directional improvement that one quarter alone does not establish as a trend.

5. Financial Health

5-year income trend (per the FY2025 10-K Item 7 and yfinance annual financials; FY2021 not in source data):

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): the year-over-year revenue decline from $228.0 million (FY2024) to $207.1 million (FY2025) reflects the timing of fixed-price milestone recognition (IM-1 finalised in FY2024; IM-2 only partially completing milestones during FY2025 amid the landing anomaly). Operating loss widened from -$52.4 million to -$87.2 million, including the costs of the KinetX integration (closed 2025-10-01).

Balance sheet (per the FY2025 10-K, balance sheet, filed 2026-03-19; Q1 2026 cash per yfinance):

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): the FY2025 cash build reflected $446.6 million of net financing inflows. The Class A stockholders' equity is structurally negative because of the post-de-SPAC capital-structure mechanics (Class B units and Tax Receivable Agreement liabilities), but consolidated equity including non-controlling interest was +$203.7 million at FY2025 year-end.

Quarterly trend, last 5 quarters (per yfinance quarterly financials and the Q1 2026 earnings release, 2026-05-14):

The Q1 2026 step-change reflects the first full quarter of Lanteris consolidation (close 2026-01-13) plus accelerated NSN, LTV and CLPS milestone work. Per the Q1 2026 earnings release (2026-05-14): Adjusted EBITDA was +$2.7 million — the first positive Adjusted EBITDA quarter in the Company's history.

6. Valuation & Market Data

Raw market data only — no commentary on cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19), the Q1 2026 earnings release (2026-05-14) and named public announcements:

• IM-3 and IM-4 lunar delivery missions (CLPS). Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): Intuitive Machines holds four CLPS task orders from NASA, with IM-3 and IM-4 the next two missions following IM-1 (Odysseus, 2024) and IM-2 (Athena, 2025 — landed with anomalies). Specific launch dates are not disclosed in this report's source data; per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A): a failure on the IM-3 mission "could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition."
• NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services (LTVS). Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): the Company holds an LTVS contract executed through a global partnership team (AVL, Boeing, CSIRO, Fugro, Michelin, Northrop Grumman, Roush), competing against Lunar Outpost and Astrolab Venturi for follow-on task orders.
• NASA Near Space Network (NSN) Services contract. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): a NASA contract for direct-to-Earth data services to the lunar vicinity and lunar-relay services, valued (per public NASA announcements when awarded in 2024) at a multi-billion-dollar ceiling across the contract life.
• Lanteris (formerly Maxar Space Systems) integration. Per the acquisition close announcement (2026-01-13): Intuitive Machines closed the $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems ($450 million cash + $350 million Class A common stock), positioning the Company to compete for the U.S. Golden Dome missile-defence initiative, Space Development Agency Tracking and Transport Layer awards, and continued NASA Artemis-related missions.
• KinetX (acquired 2025-10-01). Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): the KinetX acquisition closed 2025-10-01, adding deep-space mission design, navigation and operations capability to Intuitive Machines' service portfolio.
• Nova-D heavy cargo lunar lander. Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): Nova-D is being developed to transport critical payloads — including fission surface power systems, lunar terrain vehicles and rovers — enabling sustainable lunar exploration.

8. Competitive Landscape

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): competitors named in the LTVS contract include Lunar Outpost and Astrolab Venturi; competitors for the NSN contract include other commercial space-services providers. Peer comparison table for the broader NewSpace / aerospace-prime universe (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26; all figures in USD).

Positioning, per public disclosures: against pure-play commercial space services (RDW, FLY, RKLB), Intuitive Machines is the only operator with proven lunar soft-landing flight heritage; against legacy defence primes (NOC, LMT, BA), it is a fraction of the size but trades at a much higher P/S multiple reflecting its growth profile and the $1.1 billion record backlog reported at Q1 2026. The Lanteris acquisition repositions Intuitive Machines toward the prime-contractor end of that competitive set — directly overlapping with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman in spacecraft manufacturing. No opinion on positioning is expressed here.

9. Leadership and Ownership

Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1 and insider transaction filings via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26): Stephen J. Altemus is President and Chief Executive Officer; Peter McGrath is Chief Financial Officer; Timothy Price Crain II is Chief Technology Officer; Anna Chiara Jones is an Officer. Kamal Seyed Ghaffarian — the Company's Co-Founder and Executive Chairman — is reported as a Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a class of security in recent insider filings. Detailed executive tenure and proxy-level biographical information beyond these roles is not disclosed in this report's source data (the Item 10 proxy section was not in the extracted 10-K text).

Top institutional shareholders as of 2026-03-31 (per yfinance institutional_holders, pulled 2026-05-26):

Per yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): institutional ownership totals 86.20% and insider ownership totals 5.61%. Recent insider activity (per insider_transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26):

• 2026-05-18: Director and >10% holder Kamal S. Ghaffarian sold 141,909 shares at $33.27–$37.99 (approximately $4.86 million).
• 2026-05-04: Kamal S. Ghaffarian sold 141,909 shares at $25.00–$25.41 (approximately $3.57 million).
• 2026-04-20: Kamal S. Ghaffarian sold 141,909 shares at $27.74–$29.51 (approximately $4.00 million).
• 2026-04-15: CEO Stephen Altemus sold 13,751 shares; CFO Peter McGrath sold 24,554 shares; CTO Timothy Crain II sold 8,447 shares; Officer Anna Jones sold 4,911 shares — all at $23.61 (combined approximately $1.22 million).

10. Risks and Challenges

• History of losses and recurring need for capital (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): "We may need additional capital to fund our operations" — the Company has incurred GAAP operating losses every year reported (FY2022 -$5.5M through FY2025 -$87.2M EDGAR XBRL), and FY2025 free cash flow was -$56.0 million.
• Mission-failure risk on fixed-price CLPS contracts (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): the IM-2 mission "experienced landing anomalies that impacted our ability to complete all mission milestones," and the Company explicitly warns that a failure on the IM-3 mission "could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition."
• Customer concentration on NASA / U.S. government (Concentration): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): "Customer concentration creates risks for our business" — Intuitive Machines is heavily dependent on a small number of NASA and U.S. government customers, with revenue exposed to appropriations timing and program cancellations.
• Integration risk on Lanteris and KinetX (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19) and the Lanteris close announcement (2026-01-13): the Company is integrating the $800 million Lanteris (former Maxar Space Systems) acquisition simultaneously with the smaller KinetX acquisition (closed 2025-10-01), with execution risk on synergies, culture and program transition.
• Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) obligations to pre-IPO holders (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-03-19): the Company may need to make significant payments under the TRA to former Intuitive Machine Members, including potential accelerated obligations on certain change-of-control events that could "fund our operations" pressure.
• Substantial dilution from M&A consideration and equity raises (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (balance sheet, filed 2026-03-19) and the Lanteris close announcement (2026-01-13): Class A shares outstanding rose from 21.0 million (FY2023) to 121.3 million (FY2025), with a further $350 million of Class A stock issued in the Lanteris consideration in January 2026 — total shares of approximately 160.5 million today (per yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26).
• Backlog conversion risk (Operational): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): backlog is the estimate of revenue expected to be realised in the future on awarded contracts and is "not a guarantee of future revenue"; FY2026 revenue depends on milestone delivery against contracted backlog.
• U.S. government budget process and shutdown risk (Regulatory): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): "disruptions in U[S]" appropriations and government-shutdown risk could delay milestone funding and contract awards.
• Competition from NewSpace primes and legacy defence companies (Competitive): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): named LTVS competitors include Lunar Outpost and Astrolab Venturi; the Company also competes for NSN and Golden Dome opportunities against companies including Rocket Lab, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin.
• Cybersecurity and supply-chain disruption (Cyber & Physical): Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1C and Item 1A, filed 2026-03-19): cybersecurity incidents and supply-chain disruptions for limited-source materials or components could materially impact mission delivery.
• Insider selling overhang (Concentration): Per insider transactions via yfinance (pulled 2026-05-26): Executive Chairman Kamal Ghaffarian sold approximately $12.4 million of shares across three batches in April–May 2026; combined with named-executive sales on 2026-04-15, recent insider supply is material.
• Class A equity carries structurally negative book and TRA-driven distributions (Financial): Per the FY2025 10-K (balance sheet, filed 2026-03-19): Class A stockholders' equity was -$748.4 million at FY2025 year-end (consolidated equity including non-controlling interests was +$203.7 million) — making P/B and other book-based metrics not directly comparable to single-class peers.

11. Recent Developments

Most recent first.

• 2026-05-15 — Canaccord raises LUNR price target to $41 from $24 (reported factually): Canaccord Genuity raised its price target on Intuitive Machines to $41 from $24, citing the Q1 2026 print, the $1.1 billion backlog and the Lanteris-enabled positioning for NASA Moon-base programs and Golden Dome. Reported here for completeness; ChartsView does not endorse this target. Source: 24/7 Wall St., 2026-05-15.
• 2026-05-14 — Q1 2026 results: record revenue, first positive Adjusted EBITDA, $1.1bn backlog: Q1 2026 revenue was $186.7 million (+198.6% year over year, per the Q1 2026 earnings release; yfinance reports the comparable figure as $183.6 million), Adjusted EBITDA was +$2.7 million (the first positive Adjusted EBITDA quarter), contracted backlog rose to a record $1.1 billion, and management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $900M–$1B. Source: Intuitive Machines Q1 2026 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-05-14.
• 2026-05-14 to 2026-05-18 — Multiple analyst price-target hikes post Q1 (reported factually): Following the Q1 print, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $43 from $26, Roth Capital to $50 from $35, B. Riley to $45 from $40, Clear Street to $44 from $25, and Stifel to $32 from $22, on a 9-analyst average target of approximately $38 with a "Buy" consensus. Reported here factually; ChartsView does not endorse these targets. Source: public.com analyst forecast.
• 2026-04-15 to 2026-05-18 — Material insider selling: Executive Chairman Kamal S. Ghaffarian (>10% holder) sold three batches of 141,909 shares each on 2026-04-20, 2026-05-04 and 2026-05-18 at $25.00–$37.99, for total proceeds of approximately $12.4 million; CEO, CFO, CTO and another officer sold a combined ~51,663 shares at $23.61 on 2026-04-15 for ~$1.22 million. Source: [insider transactions via yfinance, pulled 2026-05-26].
• 2026-04-24 — DEF 14A filed; 2026 AGM scheduled for 2026-06-04: Definitive proxy statement filed; the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders is scheduled for Thursday, 2026-06-04 at 9:00 a.m. Central Time via virtual webcast. Source: Intuitive Machines DEF 14A.

Intuitive Machines' official X (Twitter) handle is @Int_Machines. No additional independently link-verifiable per-post X items from the company or named officers within the 30-day window are included in this report's source data.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

• 2026-06-04 — 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders: Thursday at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, virtual webcast at www.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/LUNR2026 (per the DEF 14A filed 2026-04-24).
• IM-3 and IM-4 lunar delivery missions: Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): the next two CLPS missions following IM-1 (2024) and IM-2 (2025); specific launch dates are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• NASA LTVS task-order awards: Per the FY2025 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-03-19): task orders against the Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services contract are expected to be awarded across the contract life; specific dates are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Lanteris integration and Golden Dome / SDA bid milestones: Per the Lanteris close announcement (2026-01-13): subsequent task orders and bid milestones for U.S. Golden Dome, Space Development Agency and NASA programs that leverage the acquired Lanteris (former Maxar Space Systems) capabilities; specific dates are not disclosed in this report's source data.
• Q2 2026 earnings — date not disclosed in this report's source data: Q1 2026 was reported on 2026-05-14 (per yfinance earningsTimestamp).

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