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The TJX Companies (TJX) — Company Research

Last Updated: 5 August 2026

The TJX Companies is the largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the world, running more than 5,200 stores across ten countries under TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, Winners, HomeSense and TK Maxx. Fiscal 2026 was the first year the group passed $60 billion of net sales, and the first quarter of fiscal 2027 delivered a 6% comparable-sales increase with every one of its four divisions positive. This report sets out what the company reported, what it is building, and what the raw valuation numbers look like as of August 2026. It contains no analyst ratings and no price targets.

1. Company Snapshot

FieldValue
Exchange / tickerNew York Stock Exchange — TJX
Sector / industryConsumer Discretionary — off-price apparel and home fashions retail
Headquarters770 Cochituate Road, Framingham, Massachusetts, USA (incorporated in Delaware)
FoundedFirst two TJ Maxx stores opened 1977; The TJX Companies, Inc. formed 1987, successor company from 1989
CEO / LeadershipErnie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President (CEO since January 2016). Carol Meyrowitz, Executive Chairman. John Klinger, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
EmployeesApproximately 377,000 Associates as of 31 January 2026, of whom roughly 86% work in retail stores (FY2026 Form 10-K)
Revenue (FY2026, 52 weeks to 31 January 2026)$60,372m net sales, up 7.1% year on year
Net income (FY2026)$5,494m; GAAP diluted EPS $4.87; adjusted diluted EPS $4.73
Market capApproximately $174.0bn (share price $157.55 at the close on 4 August 2026, on 1,104.7m shares outstanding)
Store estate5,214 stores at 31 January 2026; 5,262 stores and 137.4m gross square feet at 2 May 2026
Dividend$0.48 per share quarterly, raised 13% on 30 March 2026; $1.92 annualised, a 1.22% yield at $157.55
Fiscal year endSaturday closest to 31 January. FY2027 is the 52-week year ending 30 January 2027

2. Bull Case and Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Every division is comping positive: Q1 FY2027 group comparable sales rose 6%, with Marmaxx +6%, HomeGoods +9%, TJX Canada +7% and TJX International +4% — a rare clean sweep for a retailer of this size.
  • Margin is expanding, not just sales: FY2026 pretax margin reached 12.1% from 11.5%, and Q1 FY2027 pretax margin jumped 1.7 points to 12.0%. Gross margin improved to 31.3% from 29.5% in the quarter.
  • Buying advantage compounds in disrupted markets: TJX buys from roughly 21,000 vendors in more than 100 countries with a 1,400-strong buying organisation, and states in the 10-K that it has never had difficulty obtaining sufficient quality merchandise in either favourable or difficult retail environments.
  • Capital return is large and rising: $4.3bn returned in FY2026 ($2,522m of buybacks and $1,842m of dividends), a new $3.0bn repurchase authorisation approved in February 2026, and FY2027 buyback guidance raised in May to $2.75–$3.00bn.
  • Store runway is still long: management sees 7,000 stores of long-term potential in current geographies against 5,214 today, with 146 net new stores planned for FY2027 and TK Maxx having entered Spain in March 2026.

Bear Case

  • Growth is decelerating from here: FY2027 guidance calls for comparable sales of just 3–4% and diluted EPS of $5.08–$5.15 — roughly 7–9% growth off the adjusted FY2026 base of $4.73, well below the 14% GAAP EPS growth just delivered.
  • FY2026 earnings were flattered by a one-off: a credit-card interchange litigation settlement produced a $419m gain, offset by $198m of incentive and discretionary bonus costs, for a net $221m pretax benefit worth $0.14 of full-year EPS. Strip it out and FY2026 EPS grew 11%, not 14%.
  • Tariff policy is unresolved: the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs on 20 February 2026, an executive order then imposed a new global tariff on top of existing non-IEEPA duties, and TJX says in its 10-K that it is still evaluating the impact and cannot quantify potential refunds.
  • Fuel and freight are turning against the model: on 20 May 2026 management deliberately withheld part of the Q1 beat from full-year guidance because the outlook now assumes higher fuel costs for the balance of the year, unfavourable to both pretax margin and EPS.
  • Insiders sold heavily into the high: in the first two weeks of June 2026 the CEO, Executive Chairman, CFO and two Group Presidents disposed of roughly $32m of stock at $157–$169, none of it under Rule 10b5-1 plans, and no insider bought a single share in 2026.

3. Business Segments

TJX reports four segments. Sierra is reported inside Marmaxx rather than separately. Figures are FY2026, the 52 weeks ended 31 January 2026.

Segment% of revenueWhat it is
Marmaxx60.6% ($36,585m)US TJ Maxx (1,348 stores), Marshalls (1,255) and Sierra (145), plus tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com and sierra.com. Segment profit $5,528m, a 15.1% margin; comparable sales +4%.
HomeGoods16.9% ($10,172m)US HomeGoods (963 stores) and Homesense (79). Home furnishings, decor, kitchen and seasonal. Segment profit $1,246m, a 12.2% margin; comparable sales +5%.
TJX International13.2% ($7,986m)TK Maxx across the UK, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Austria, the Netherlands and, from March 2026, Spain (673 stores), Homesense Europe (74) and TK Maxx Australia (88). Segment profit $558m, a 7.0% margin; comparable sales +4%.
TJX Canada9.3% ($5,629m)Winners (316 stores), HomeSense (162) and Marshalls (111). Segment profit $757m, a 13.4% margin; comparable sales +7%.

By geography, FY2026 revenue was 78% United States, 12% Europe, 9% Canada and 1% Australia. By merchandise category it was roughly 44% apparel including footwear, 36% home fashions and 20% accessories including jewellery and beauty. All six branded e-commerce sites combined accounted for about 2% of total sales in both FY2026 and FY2025.

4. Business Model and Competitive Moat

How it makes money. TJX buys merchandise opportunistically — closeouts, manufacturer overruns, order cancellations and special production made directly by brands and factories — and sells it at prices generally 20% to 60% below what full-price retailers charge for comparable goods. It does not run sales or issue coupons. Pricing, markdowns and store inventory allocation are decided centrally. Cost of sales including buying and occupancy was 69.0% of net sales in FY2026 and SG&A 19.1%, producing a 12.1% pretax margin.

Why vendors sell to it. The 10-K sets out the mechanics explicitly. TJX will buy less-than-full assortments and any quantity, disperse merchandise across a geographically diverse store network, and pay promptly. Critically, it does not ask for the concessions traditional retailers demand — no advertising, promotional or markdown allowances, no delivery concessions, no performance-based return privileges. That combination, plus an A-rated balance sheet, makes TJX the buyer of choice when a brand needs to clear inventory quietly.

The inventory engine. The point of the treasure-hunt format is velocity. FY2026 cost of sales of $41,679m against year-end merchandise inventories of $7,297m implies roughly 5.7 turns. Selling floors are deliberately built without walls between departments and largely free of permanent fixtures so the mix can be reshuffled continuously, and buyers stay in the market year-round rather than committing seasons ahead. Some merchandise is bought specifically to be stored and released in a future season — the packaway programme.

The cost advantage. Advertising promotes the banners rather than individual products, which keeps marketing spend low as a percentage of sales relative to conventional retailers. Distribution runs across roughly 31 million square feet in six countries. E-commerce is deliberately kept at about 2% of sales rather than being scaled at the expense of store economics.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures below are from TJX's Form 10-K filings and quarterly earnings press releases. TJX labels each fiscal year by the calendar year in which it ends. FY2024 was a 53-week year; all others shown were 52 weeks.

Fiscal YearRevenue ($m)YoY %GAAP EPSAdjusted EPSDividend/shareLong-term debt (YE)
FY2022 (to 29 Jan 2022)$48,550m+51.1%$2.70$2.85$1.04$3,355m
FY2023 (to 28 Jan 2023)$49,936m+2.9%$2.97$3.11$1.18$2,859m
FY2024 (to 3 Feb 2024, 53 weeks)$54,217m+8.6%$3.86$3.76$1.33$2,862m
FY2025 (to 1 Feb 2025)$56,360m+4.0%$4.26$4.26 †$1.50$2,866m
FY2026 (to 31 Jan 2026)$60,372m+7.1%$4.87$4.73$1.70$1,870m

† TJX published no non-GAAP earnings measure for FY2025; the GAAP figure is repeated in the adjusted column for that year only. FY2022 adjusted EPS excludes a $0.15 debt-extinguishment charge; FY2023 excludes a $0.14 charge for the write-down and divestiture of the Familia (Russia) minority investment; FY2024 excludes an estimated $0.10 benefit from the 53rd week, which is why adjusted sits below GAAP; FY2026 excludes a $0.14 net benefit from the credit-card interchange-fee litigation settlement. Long-term debt is the non-current balance; TJX also carried $500m of current-portion debt at FY2023 year end and $999m at FY2026 year end (2.25% Notes maturing September 2026).

Quarter / HalfRevenueAdjusted EPSGAAP EPS
Q1 FY2027 (13 wks to 2 May 2026)$14,323m$1.19 ‡$1.19
Q4 FY2026 (13 wks to 31 Jan 2026)$17,743m$1.43$1.58
Q3 FY2026 (13 wks to 1 Nov 2025)$15,117m$1.28 ‡$1.28
Q2 FY2026 (13 wks to 2 Aug 2025)$14,401m$1.10 ‡$1.10
FY2026 total (52 wks to 31 Jan 2026)$60,372m$4.73$4.87

‡ No non-GAAP measure was published for these quarters; GAAP is repeated. Q1 FY2027 net sales rose 9% (8% in constant currency) on a 6% comparable-sales gain, with pretax margin of 12.0% against 10.3% a year earlier.

Cash generation for FY2026: operating cash flow $6,874m, capital expenditure $1,957m, free cash flow $4,917m, depreciation and amortisation $1,247m. The balance sheet at 31 January 2026 showed cash and equivalents of $6,230m against total debt of $2,869m, a net cash position of roughly $3.4bn, with total shareholders' equity of $10,190m. At 2 May 2026 cash stood at $5,580m, current-portion debt at $999m, non-current long-term debt at $1,871m and shareholders' equity at $10,403m. Operating lease liabilities were $10,620m at FY2026 year end. Interested readers can follow the price action on our Live Charts page.

6. Valuation Metrics

Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

MetricValue
Share price$157.55 (close, 4 August 2026)
Market cap~$174.0bn ($157.55 × 1,104.7m shares outstanding)
Trailing P/E (GAAP)~30.7x on trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $5.14 (FY2026 $4.87 less Q1 FY2026 $0.92 plus Q1 FY2027 $1.19). On the equivalent adjusted TTM figure of ~$5.00 the multiple is ~31.5x.
P/E (forward)~30.8x on management's own FY2027 diluted EPS guidance of $5.08–$5.15, midpoint $5.115, raised on 20 May 2026
P/S (TTM)~2.83x (market cap ~$174.0bn / TTM revenue ~$61,584m)
EV/EBITDA (TTM)~20.3x (EV ~$171.3bn / FY2026 EBITDA ~$8,425m; EBITDA = operating income $7,178m + D&A $1,247m, where operating income is net sales $60,372m less cost of sales including buying and occupancy $41,679m less SG&A $11,515m). Operating lease liabilities of $10,620m are excluded from EV; including them lifts the multiple to roughly 21.6x.
P/FCF~35.4x (market cap ~$174.0bn / FY2026 free cash flow $4,917m; FCF = operating cash flow $6,874m less capex $1,957m per the FY2026 cash flow statement). On trailing-twelve-month FCF of ~$5,477m the multiple is ~31.8x.
Enterprise value~$171.3bn (market cap ~$174.0bn + total debt $2,870m − cash $5,580m, per the 2 May 2026 balance sheet)
Price/book~16.7x (market cap ~$174.0bn / shareholders' equity $10,403m at 2 May 2026)
52-week high$170.00, reached 11 June 2026
52-week low$128.48, reached 5 August 2025
Dividend yield1.22% ($1.92 annualised at $157.55)
Short interest (% of float)1.63% (17.97m shares short against a 1,102.1m-share float)
Days to cover2.97

7. What Are They Building

Store growth. The FY2026 10-K puts long-term store potential in current geographies at 7,000 against 5,214 open at year end — Marmaxx to 3,000, HomeGoods to 1,800, Sierra to 325, TJX Canada to 650 and TJX International to 1,225. The FY2027 plan is 146 net new stores: 45 net new Marmaxx plus 24 Sierra, 24 HomeGoods plus 11 Homesense, 13 in Canada, 19 net new in Europe and 10 in Australia. Forty-eight net stores were added in Q1 FY2027 alone.

Spain. TK Maxx opened its first stores in Spain in March 2026, taking the group to ten countries. Management has publicly described long-term potential of more than 100 stores there, leveraging existing European distribution and a field office already in the market.

Mexico and the Middle East. TJX holds a 49% stake in Multibrand Outlet Stores, a joint venture with Grupo Axo covering more than 200 off-price stores in Mexico under the Promoda, Reduced and Urban Store banners, acquired in Q3 FY2025 for $193m and carried at $218m. It also holds a 35% minority stake in Brands for Less, a Middle Eastern off-price retailer with over 100 stores, carried at $348m. Both are equity-method investments, and TJX holds an option to increase its Mexican ownership over time.

Supply chain and technology capex. FY2027 capital expenditure is guided to $2.2–$2.3bn, up from $1,957m, of which roughly $992m is earmarked for offices, distribution centres and IT systems, about $1.0bn for store renovations and about $222m for new stores. It is to be funded entirely from cash on hand and internally generated funds.

What it is not building. E-commerce remains deliberately capped at about 2% of sales across six branded sites. TJX has consistently argued that scaling online would dilute both the treasure-hunt proposition and the economics of the store estate.

8. Competitive Landscape

Market capitalisations below were checked live on 4 August 2026. TJX's FY2026 revenue of $60.4bn is roughly 2.7 times Ross Stores and 5.2 times Burlington.

PeerMarket cap (August 2026)Key 2025 metric
Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST)~$80.5bn ($251.06 at the 4 August 2026 close, 320.8m shares)FY2025 (52 weeks to 31 January 2026) revenue $22,750.6m, net income $2,145.0m, diluted EPS $6.61, comparable store sales +5% (FY2025 Form 10-K, results released 3 March 2026)
Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL)~$23.1bn ($367.82 at the 4 August 2026 close, 62.8m shares)FY2025 (to 31 January 2026) total revenue $11,566.9m, net income $610.2m, diluted EPS $9.51, total sales +9% and comparable store sales +2% (Burlington Q4 FY2025 results release)
Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR)~$25.1bn ($130.71 at the 4 August 2026 close, 192.2m shares)FY2025 (to 31 January 2026) net sales $19,395.7m, net income $1,282.5m, diluted EPS $6.22 (SEC XBRL company facts, CIK 935703)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI)~$4.66bn ($77.10 at the 4 August 2026 close)FY2025 revenue $2,649.2m, diluted EPS $3.89 — the closest listed pure-play closeout operator, roughly 1/23rd of TJX's revenue base

On trailing earnings TJX is the cheapest of the three large off-price names, at roughly 30.7x against Ross at around 35x and Burlington at around 38x on 4 August 2026 quotes. The competitive pressure is real, however: Ross grew FY2025 comparable sales 5% and Burlington grew total sales 9%, and all three are chasing overlapping real estate. You can track the sector calendar on our Economic Calendar.

9. Leadership and Insider Activity

Ernie Herrman has been Chief Executive Officer since January 2016 and President since January 2011, and signed the FY2026 Form 10-K on 31 March 2026 as principal executive officer. Carol Meyrowitz, his predecessor as CEO, remains Executive Chairman of the Board. John Klinger is Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. No executive departures or appointments were disclosed in any 2026 Form 8-K. All ten director nominees were re-elected at the annual meeting on 9 June 2026 and PricewaterhouseCoopers was ratified as auditor.

Insider activity in 2026 has been one-directional. Every open-market sale listed below was filed with the Rule 10b5-1 checkbox set to false, meaning none was executed under a pre-arranged trading plan. There were no open-market purchases by any insider during 2026.

NameDateTypeSharesPriceValuePlan Type
Ernie Herrman (CEO & President)2 Mar 2026Open-market sale30,000$160.95 (weighted average)~$4.83mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
Ernie Herrman (CEO & President)3–5 Jun 2026Open-market sale67,551$157.46–$160.68~$10.69mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
Carol Meyrowitz (Executive Chairman)9 Jun 2026Open-market sale55,624$163.65 (weighted average)~$9.10mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
Kenneth Canestrari (SEVP, Group President)3 Jun 2026Open-market sale31,447$157.50 (weighted average)~$4.95mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
Peter Benjamin (SEVP, Group President)10 Jun 2026Open-market sale10,926$165.00~$1.80mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
John Klinger (SEVP, CFO)5 Jun 2026Open-market sale6,235$160.77 (weighted average)~$1.00mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)
Jackwyn L. Nemerov (Director)11 Jun 2026Open-market sale957$168.60~$0.16mNot 10b5-1 (discretionary)

Aggregate open-market selling in 2026 to date is approximately 202,700 shares for roughly $32.5m, concentrated in the two weeks after the 20 May Q1 print and into the stock's record-high area. Separately, routine share withholding for taxes on the 30 March and 10 April 2026 equity vestings covered the officer group, and Peter Benjamin gifted 34,129 shares to a spousal trust on 4 June 2026 — neither category is a discretionary market transaction. Ernie Herrman retained 514,848 shares after his June sales and Carol Meyrowitz 201,496.

10. Key Risks

  • Tariffs and trade policy (Regulatory): the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs on 20 February 2026 and a new global tariff was imposed by executive order immediately afterwards. TJX states in its 10-K that the extent, duration and refund mechanics remain uncertain and that it is still evaluating the impact on its financial statements. Nothing is quantified in the accounts.
  • Consumer discretionary exposure (Macro): TJX derives 78% of revenue from a single US consumer economy selling apparel and home goods. Its own risk factors cite inflation, housing-market weakness and rising housing costs as factors that have already impacted consumer confidence and discretionary spending in recent years.
  • Fuel, freight and wage inflation (Operational): management explicitly withheld part of the Q1 FY2027 beat from guidance on 20 May 2026 because the outlook now assumes higher fuel costs for the rest of the year. The 10-K separately states that operating expenses will continue to reflect increasing labour costs across a 377,000-person workforce, with distribution Associates covered by collective bargaining agreements and store Associates a potential unionisation target.
  • Sourcing and supply-chain disruption (Operational): merchandise comes from roughly 21,000 vendors in more than 100 countries, much of it produced in Asia. Disclosed exposures include transport capacity and cost, quotas and trade restrictions, and named geopolitical flashpoints in Ukraine, the Middle East and Red Sea shipping lanes.
  • Currency translation (Financial): 22% of revenue is earned outside the United States. TJX International grew FY2026 sales 11% as reported but only 6% in constant currency, and TJX Canada 8% versus 9%. Unhedged mark-to-market on inventory derivatives runs straight through cost of sales and was cited as a specific drag on Q4 FY2026 gross margin.
  • Competition and saturation (Competitive): Ross Stores and Burlington are both expanding into overlapping real estate, and the 7,000-store long-term target implies decades of infill in already dense markets. The 10-K describes the business as highly competitive against department, specialty, off-price, discount, warehouse, outlet and online retailers.
  • Valuation and earnings quality (Financial): the shares trade at roughly 30.7x trailing GAAP earnings and 30.8x the midpoint of management's own FY2027 guidance, against a five-year revenue CAGR of 5.6% and guided comparable-sales growth of 3–4%. FY2026 GAAP EPS also included a $0.14 non-recurring benefit from the interchange settlement.
  • International execution (Operational): the Mexico joint venture and the Brands for Less stake carry $133m and $301m respectively of value in excess of TJX's share of underlying net assets. The precedent is not encouraging — the Familia (Russia) minority investment was written off in full for $218m in FY2023.
  • Cybersecurity (Operational): the 10-K notes that attack attempts continue to increase in sophistication including through the use of artificial intelligence, and TJX remains a high-value target given the scale of its payment infrastructure and the landmark 2006 intrusion in its history.

11. Recent Developments

  • 20 Feb 2026 — Supreme Court invalidates IEEPA tariffs. TJX disclosed the ruling as a subsequent event in its FY2026 10-K, noting it may allow recovery of IEEPA tariff amounts previously paid, with timing and administration uncertain. A new global tariff was then imposed by executive order on top of existing non-IEEPA duties.
  • 25 Feb 2026 — Q4 and FY2026 results, plus a new $3.0bn buyback authorisation. Q4 comparable sales rose 5% with diluted EPS of $1.58 (adjusted $1.43). FY2026 sales reached $60.4bn on 5% comps with EPS of $4.87 (adjusted $4.73). The board approved its 26th repurchase programme since 1997 and management signalled a 13% dividend increase. Initial FY2027 guidance was for comps of 2–3% and EPS of $4.93–$5.02.
  • Mar 2026 — TK Maxx opens its first stores in Spain. A new country for the group, taking TJX to ten countries and supporting the raised TJX International long-term store target of 1,225.
  • 16 Mar 2026 — S&P Global Ratings affirms TJX at 'A' with a stable outlook. Moody's rates the senior unsecured debt A2 with Prime-1 commercial paper. The 10-K cites the credit rating as a direct competitive advantage in vendor negotiations.
  • 30 Mar 2026 — quarterly dividend raised 13% to $0.48 per share. Paid 4 June 2026 to holders of record 14 May 2026.
  • 20 May 2026 — Q1 FY2027 beats and full-year guidance is raised. Net sales rose 9% to $14.3bn on 6% comps with all four divisions positive; pretax margin improved 1.7 points to 12.0% and diluted EPS rose 29% to $1.19. FY2027 guidance went to comps of 3–4%, pretax margin of 11.9–12.0%, EPS of $5.08–$5.15 and buybacks of $2.75–$3.00bn. Management flagged higher assumed fuel costs for the balance of the year.
  • 29 May 2026 — Q1 Form 10-Q filed alongside an automatic shelf registration. The Form S-3ASR preserves debt and equity issuance flexibility ahead of the $999m note maturity in September 2026.
  • 9 Jun 2026 — annual meeting held and next dividend declared. All ten directors re-elected and PwC ratified. A $0.48 quarterly dividend was declared, payable 3 September 2026 to holders of record 13 August 2026.
  • 3–11 Jun 2026 — cluster of executive open-market sales. The CEO, Executive Chairman, CFO and two Group Presidents sold roughly $32m of stock, none under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
  • 11 Jun 2026 — shares reach a 52-week and all-time high of $170.00. The stock closed at $157.55 on 4 August 2026, about 7% below that peak and 23% above the 52-week low.

12. Key Dates to Watch

  • 13 Aug 2026 — record date, and under T+1 settlement the ex-dividend date, for the $0.48 quarterly dividend declared on 9 June 2026
  • Expected 19 Aug 2026 — Q2 FY2027 results, before market open. TJX had not yet issued its own confirming press release as of 4 August 2026; the date is drawn from third-party earnings calendars and matches the company's pattern of reporting on a Wednesday before the open
  • 3 Sep 2026 — payment date for the $0.48 quarterly dividend
  • Expected Sep 2026 — maturity of the $999m 2.25% ten-year Notes, the entire current-portion debt balance
  • 31 Oct 2026 — end of the Q3 FY2027 fiscal quarter
  • Expected Nov 2026 — Q3 FY2027 results (the FY2026 equivalent was reported 19 November 2025)
  • 30 Jan 2027 — FY2027 fiscal year end
  • Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year FY2027 results, with initial FY2028 guidance (the FY2026 equivalent was 25 February 2026)
  • Expected Jun 2027 — 2027 annual meeting of shareholders; the 2026 meeting was held 9 June 2026

Guidance for FY2027 currently stands at comparable-sales growth of 3–4%, pretax profit margin of 11.9–12.0% and diluted EPS of $5.08–$5.15, with capital expenditure of $2.2–$2.3bn and share repurchases of $2.75–$3.00bn. Discussion of these results continues on the ChartsView Forum.


Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
67 / 100

The central thesis. TJX buys closeout, overrun and cancelled-order merchandise opportunistically from roughly 21,000 vendors across more than 100 countries and sells it through 5,262 off-price stores at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retail, without running sales or issuing coupons. Fiscal 2026 net sales reached $60,372m, up 7.1%, with GAAP diluted EPS of $4.87 and adjusted EPS of $4.73, and $4.3bn returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. On 20 May 2026 management raised full-year fiscal 2027 guidance to comparable-sales growth of 3–4%, pretax margin of 11.9–12.0% and diluted EPS of $5.08–$5.15, after a first quarter in which all four divisions comped positive. The principal structural driver is continued off-price share capture in a soft discretionary market, against a store runway management puts at 7,000 units in existing geographies versus 5,214 open today.

What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be Q2 fiscal 2027 results, expected 19 August 2026, landing in line with or above the raised guidance with comparable sales and pretax margin both holding, alongside continued store growth in Spain and progress at the Mexico and Middle East equity investments. The thesis breaks if unresolved tariff costs and the higher assumed fuel expense compress the 11.9–12.0% margin target, if US discretionary spending weakens enough to stall the 3–4% comparable-sales assumption, or if the roughly 30.7x trailing multiple derates on the recognition that fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS included a non-recurring $0.14 benefit from the credit-card interchange settlement.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsQ2 FY2027 earnings (14 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
  • ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Every division is comping positive:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
  • InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Tariffs and trade policy (Regulatory):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 5
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
0 of 9
Recent news
Net upgrades
Generated
5 Aug 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 5 Aug 2026.