McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — Company Research

Last Updated: 2 November 2026

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is the world's largest restaurant company by Systemwide sales, with 45,356 restaurants at the end of 2025 (about 95% of them run by franchisees) and Systemwide sales of more than $139bn. Reported revenue of $26,885m in FY2025 is mostly made up of franchised revenues collected from those operators, with the rest from company-operated restaurants. The share price has fallen sharply in 2026, hitting a 52-week low of $229.20 on 05 Oct 2026 as US comparable sales slowed and the 23 Sep 2026 Investor Day committed about $8.5bn of support to franchisees. This refresh uses McDonald's own releases and SEC filings, with Q3 2026 results due in the first week of November.

1. Company Snapshot

2. Investment Thesis: Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

• Franchise-heavy, cash-generative model: About 95% of restaurants are franchised, and FY2025 produced $10,551m of operating cash flow and $7,186m of free cash flow on $26,885m of revenue.
• Dividend King status: The 17 Sep 2026 increase to $1.93 a quarter was the 50th consecutive annual rise, backed by $5,115m of dividends paid in FY2025.
• Loyalty and digital scale: About 220m 90-day active loyalty users and $40bn of trailing loyalty sales across 70 markets at Q2 2026, up from nearly 210m and $37bn at the end of 2025.
• Unit growth runway: About 2,600 gross openings planned for 2026 and a target of 50,000 restaurants in 2028; management expects new units to add nearly 2.5% to Systemwide sales growth in 2027.
• Earnings still growing: Q2 2026 revenue rose 3.7% to $7,099m and adjusted EPS rose 6% to $3.38, with global comparable sales up 1.3%.

Bear Case

• US traffic under pressure: US comparable sales slowed to +0.8% in Q2 2026 from +6.8% in Q4 2025, and the shares fell to a 52-week low of $229.20 on 05 Oct 2026.
• Cost of supporting franchisees: The McDonald's > NEXT plan commits about $8.5bn of franchisee partnering support through 2036, with $5bn of it through 2030, in the form of rent relief and capital.
• Highly leveraged balance sheet: Long-term debt was $39,973m at the end of 2025 against shareholders' equity of minus $1,791m.
• Slower restaurant target: The 50,000-restaurant goal has moved from end-2027 (FY2025 10-K) to 2028 (Q2 2026 10-Q).
• Franchisee friction: Bloomberg reported on 06 Oct 2026 that US franchisees were pushing back on a remodel bill of at least $800,000 per restaurant.

3. Business Segments

McDonald's reports three geographic segments. The split below uses FY2025 total revenues of $26,885m from the FY2025 10-K.

By type of revenue, FY2025 franchised revenues were $16,548m (61.6%), sales by company-owned and operated restaurants $9,690m (36.0%) and other revenues $647m (2.4%).

4. Business Model & Moat

How it makes money. Most of McDonald's revenue comes from franchisees, who pay franchised revenues to the company on their restaurant sales, while about 5% of restaurants are run by the company itself. That structure means reported revenue of $26,885m sits on top of Systemwide sales of more than $139bn, and franchise income carries far higher margins than running restaurants directly.

Scale and brand. More than 46,000 restaurants serving about 70 million customers a day (Investor Day, 23 Sep 2026) give McDonald's buying power, marketing reach and a loyalty programme with about 220m active users that smaller chains cannot match.

The reset under way. The McDonald's > NEXT strategy, launched at the 23 Sep 2026 Investor Day, replaces Accelerating the Arches. It targets an operating margin in the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030, about 250bp of restaurant-level efficiency gains, share gains in chicken and beverages, and free cash flow conversion in the mid-to-high 80% range by 2030.

5. Financial Health

Annual figures come from McDonald's 10-K filings (SEC XBRL) and fourth-quarter earnings releases. Adjusted EPS excludes items McDonald's identifies as strategic gains and charges, restructuring and tax settlements. Long-term debt is the year-end balance-sheet figure.

Quarterly results, most recent first. Q3 2026 had not been reported at the time of writing.

Cash flow and balance sheet. FY2025 operating cash flow was $10,551m and capital expenditure $3,365m, giving free cash flow of $7,186m; depreciation and amortisation in the cash flow statement was $2,199m. In the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was $5,222m, capex $1,516m and D&A $1,131m. At 31 Dec 2025 McDonald's had $39,973m of long-term debt, $725m of current maturities and $774m of cash, with shareholders' equity of minus $1,791m. At 30 Jun 2026 long-term debt was $39,863m and cash $822m. Management guides 2026 capex of $3.7bn to $3.9bn and free cash flow conversion in the low-to-mid 80% range. Follow the shares on ChartsView Live Charts.

6. Valuation

Raw metrics, November 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.

7. What Are They Building

• McDonald's > NEXT: The strategy launched on 23 Sep 2026 has four pillars (Menu, Consumer, Restaurant and People). Targets include an operating margin in the low-to-mid 50% range by 2030, G&A of about 1.9% of Systemwide sales by 2030, and capex of about $3bn a year from 2027 to 2030 plus $1.5bn to $2bn of partnering capex.
• Franchisee partnering support: About $8.5bn through 2036 ($5bn through 2030) of rent relief and capital to help operators remodel and lift restaurant economics.
• Restaurant development: About 2,600 gross openings and about 2,100 net additions planned in 2026, toward 50,000 restaurants in 2028. Nearly 2,300 opened in 2025.
• Loyalty: The 2027 targets are 250m 90-day active users and $45bn of loyalty sales; the Q2 2026 figures were about 220m and $40bn.
• Technology: Restaurant > NEXT includes rolling out the GenAI-enabled ArchIQ restaurant system at scale, building on the Google Cloud partnership announced in Dec 2023.
• Menu: Goals of +1.5 percentage points of share each in chicken and beverages by 2030. The CosMc's beverage spin-off closed in 2025 and its drinks tests fed into the US beverage work.
• Make It Golden: A customer-experience programme that began on Founder's Day, 05 Oct 2026.

8. Peer Comparison

Market caps at the 30 Oct 2026 close.

9. Insider Activity

Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski made the largest insider sale of 2026, exercising 52,553 options and selling them on 12–13 Feb 2026 under a 10b5-1 plan. No open-market purchases by insiders were filed in 2026. Recent open-market sales from Form 4 filings:

10. Key Risks

• US consumer and traffic (Commercial): US comparable sales growth slowed to +0.8% in Q2 2026, and continued pressure on lower-income diners could keep the largest segment sluggish.
• Franchisee economics (Operational): The plan relies on franchisees funding remodels; reported pushback over costs of $800,000 or more per restaurant could slow the programme or need more support.
• Cost of partnering support (Financial): About $8.5bn of rent relief and capital through 2036 will weigh on franchised margins and cash flow if it does not lift restaurant sales.
• Leverage (Financial): About $40.7bn of total debt at the end of 2025 and negative shareholders' equity leave the dividend and buybacks dependent on steady cash generation and access to credit markets.
• International and currency exposure (Commercial): International Operated Markets supplied 50.7% of FY2025 revenue, so weaker European demand or a stronger dollar would hit reported results.
• Litigation (Legal): On 30 Oct 2026 a US federal judge let the core claims of the McRib consumer class action (Le v. McDonald's Corp.) proceed.

11. Recent Developments

• 30 Oct 2026 — McRib lawsuit proceeds. A federal judge in the Northern District of Illinois refused to dismiss the core claims in a class action over the McRib, while dismissing some others.
• 06 Oct 2026 — Franchisee pushback reported. Bloomberg reported that US franchisees were balking at a remodel bill of at least $800,000 per restaurant.
• 05 Oct 2026 — Make It Golden launched; 52-week low. The customer-experience programme began on Founder's Day, and the same day the shares touched a 52-week low of $229.20.
• 23 Sep 2026 — Investor Day launches McDonald's > NEXT. Management set 2030 targets for margin, efficiency and cash conversion and committed about $8.5bn of franchisee partnering support through 2036.
• 17 Sep 2026 — Dividend raised 4%. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.93, payable 15 Dec 2026, the 50th consecutive annual increase.
• 04 Aug 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 3.7% to $7,099m, adjusted EPS rose 6% to $3.38 and global comparable sales grew 1.3%. Skye Anderson became President of McDonald's USA, replacing Joe Erlinger.

12. Key Dates

• Expected 04 Nov 2026 — Q3 2026 results (estimated date; not yet confirmed by McDonald's)
• 10 Nov 2026 — US Pokémon Happy Meal launch
• 01 Dec 2026 — Record date for the $1.93 quarterly dividend (ex-dividend the same day under T+1 settlement)
• 15 Dec 2026 — Quarterly dividend paid
• Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results (FY2025 results were released on 11 Feb 2026)

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Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.