Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) — Company Research
Last Updated: 5 August 2026
Chipotle Mexican Grill operates more than 4,200 fast-casual restaurants, almost all of them company-owned, and is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates every one of its units in the United States, Canada and Europe. After a bruising fiscal 2025 in which comparable sales fell 1.7% and transactions fell 2.9%, the company delivered two consecutive quarters of improving comps and raised its full-year guidance on 29 July 2026. Six days later a Minnesota salmonella investigation linked to jalapenos knocked almost 10% off the share price. This report sets out what the filings show, what the company is building, and what the raw valuation numbers look like as of August 2026. It contains no analyst ratings and no price targets.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Exchange / ticker | New York Stock Exchange — CMG |
| Sector / industry | Consumer Discretionary — fast-casual restaurants. One reportable operating segment ("U.S.") |
| Headquarters | 610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1100, Newport Beach, California, USA (incorporated in Delaware) |
| Founded | First restaurant opened in Denver, Colorado in 1993 |
| CEO / Leadership | Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer (interim from August 2024, permanent from November 2024). Adam Rymer, Chief Financial Officer. Curt Garner, President, Chief Strategy and Technology Officer |
| Employees | 130,301 people worldwide plus 1,233 contract workers as of 31 December 2025 (FY2025 Form 10-K); the company described its headcount as nearly 140,000 in its 29 July 2026 release |
| Revenue (FY2025, year to 31 December 2025) | $11,925.6m, up 5.4% year on year |
| Net income (FY2025) | $1,535.8m; GAAP diluted EPS $1.14; adjusted diluted EPS $1.17 |
| Market cap | Approximately $42.8bn (share price $33.83 at the close on 4 August 2026, on 1,265.4m shares outstanding) |
| Restaurant estate | 4,186 company-owned plus 15 partner-operated restaurants at 30 June 2026, across the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, the Middle East and Mexico |
| Dividend | None. Chipotle has never declared or paid a cash dividend and states it intends to retain earnings for expansion and buybacks |
| Stock split | 50-for-1, effective 26 June 2024. All per-share figures in this report are stated post-split |
2. Bull Case and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Traffic has turned: after five weak quarters, comparable sales went +0.5% in Q1 2026 and +2.2% in Q2 2026, with transactions positive in both (+0.6% and +1.0%). Full-year comp guidance was raised on 29 July 2026 from "about flat" to low single digit growth.
- Unit growth is still running hard: 334 company-owned openings in FY2025 was a record, 149 have opened in the first half of 2026, and the 2026 target is 350–370 including 10–15 partner-operated. Roughly 80% of new company-owned units include a Chipotlane.
- Debt-free balance sheet funds its own growth: zero borrowings at every year end from FY2021 to FY2025 and at 30 June 2026, with a $500m revolving facility entirely undrawn and covenants comfortably met.
- Loyalty and digital are underexploited: Chipotle Rewards reached 23 million active members after the April 2026 relaunch, but only around 20% of in-restaurant transactions currently scan for loyalty against roughly 90% of owned digital transactions — management's identified biggest untapped lever. Digital is 38.3% of food and beverage revenue.
- International optionality is only just starting: partner-operated entries into the Middle East (Alshaya), Mexico (Alsea, first restaurant opened 16 July 2026) and Asia (SPC Group joint venture) contribute almost nothing today — non-US revenue was 2.1% of the total in FY2025.
Bear Case
- An active food-safety investigation: on 4 August 2026 Minnesota health officials linked a salmonella outbreak of at least 110 state cases to jalapenos, with 75 of 84 interviewed patients having eaten at Chipotle between mid-June and mid-July. Chipotle pulled the peppers and replaced them from other growers, and the shares fell 9.7% in a single session.
- Margins are compressing even as sales recover: operating margin fell to 15.7% in Q2 2026 from 18.2%, and to 12.9% in Q1 2026 from 16.7%. Restaurant-level margin fell to 25.2% from 27.4% in Q2. FY2025 restaurant-level margin was 25.4% against 26.7% in FY2024.
- Beef, freight and labour inflation are structural: food, beverage and packaging rose to 29.7% of revenue in Q2 2026 from 28.9%, driven by beef and freight, while labour rose to 25.0% from 24.7%. Avocado and dairy were only a partial offset.
- Faster-growing competition: Cava grew Q1 FY2026 revenue 32.2% with same-restaurant sales of 9.7% and traffic of 6.8%, in the same window Chipotle managed a 0.5% comp. The fast-casual bowl format that Chipotle created is now crowded.
- Buybacks have been executed above the current price: $2.4bn was repurchased in FY2025 at an average $42.54 and $1,354.9m in the first half of 2026 at prices including $32.55 in Q2, against $33.83 on 4 August 2026. Retained earnings have been turned negative (minus $67.2m at 30 June 2026), so book value offers no support.
3. Business Segments
Chipotle reports a single "U.S." operating segment; Canada, Europe and the international partner-operated restaurants are disclosed together as "All other" and do not meet the quantitative thresholds for separate reporting. The disaggregation below is as disclosed in the FY2025 Form 10-K and the Q2 2026 results.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Food and beverage revenue | 99.5% ($11,866.1m in FY2025; $3,332.8m in Q2 2026) | In-restaurant, order-ahead and app sales of burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and drinks. This is effectively the entire business. |
| Delivery service revenue | 0.5% ($59.6m in FY2025; $15.8m in Q2 2026) | Delivery fees charged on orders placed through Chipotle's own channels. Down 10.4% in FY2025 as the mix shifted back toward pick-up. |
| U.S. reportable segment | 97.9% ($11,679.4m in FY2025) | 3,938 company-owned US restaurants at 31 December 2025. Segment income from operations $2,587.5m. |
| All other (Canada, Europe, international partner) | 2.1% ($246.2m in FY2025) | 104 company-owned restaurants in Canada, the UK, France and Germany, plus 14 partner-operated restaurants in the Middle East. Growing from a very small base. |
Digital sales were 36.7% of food and beverage revenue in FY2025, 38.6% in Q1 2026 and 38.3% in Q2 2026, and include website, app and third-party aggregator orders. Average restaurant sales — the trailing-twelve-month unit volume for restaurants open at least twelve full months — were $3.102m at 30 June 2026, against $3.104m at 31 December 2025 and $3.213m at 31 December 2024.
4. Business Model and Competitive Moat
How it makes money. Chipotle sells food, and almost nothing else. There is no US franchise royalty stream, no licensing income of consequence and no packaged-goods arm. Revenue is 99.5% food and beverage, generated by 4,186 company-owned restaurants at an average unit volume of roughly $3.10m. Because every unit is corporate, every dollar of same-store sales flows through Chipotle's own P&L — and so does every dollar of wage and commodity inflation. FY2025 cost structure was 29.6% food, beverage and packaging, 25.1% labour, with $652.0m of general and administrative expense, producing a 16.2% operating margin.
The unit economics and the Chipotlane. The drive-through digital pick-up lane is the single most important format decision the company has made. Management states that Chipotlanes increase new restaurant sales, margins and returns; 257 of 334 FY2025 openings included one, rising to 80 of 100 openings in Q2 2026. The 2026 plan targets roughly 80% Chipotlane penetration on new company-owned units.
Sourcing as brand. The Food with Integrity programme — responsibly raised meats without antibiotics or added growth hormones, responsibly grown produce, no artificial colours, flavours or preservatives — is what allows Chipotle to price above the quick-service average. It cuts both ways: it narrows the supplier base, creates intermittent shortages, and raises input costs relative to competitors who buy on price alone.
Balance-sheet self-funding. With no debt at any year end from FY2021 to FY2025 and an undrawn $500m revolver, Chipotle funds 350-plus openings a year, roughly $700m of annual capex and over $2bn of buybacks entirely from operating cash flow of $2.1bn. Its only debt-like obligation is $5,419m of operating lease liabilities at 30 June 2026, against $2,200m of shareholders' equity.
5. Financial Health
All per-share figures are stated on a post-split basis following the 50-for-1 stock split effective 26 June 2024. FY2022 and FY2023 GAAP EPS are as retroactively restated by Chipotle in its FY2024 Form 10-K; FY2021 figures and the FY2021–FY2023 adjusted EPS figures are the originally reported pre-split numbers divided by 50, as the company did not republish those years on a post-split basis.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (to 31 Dec 2021) | $7,547.1m | +26.1% | $0.46 | $0.51 | Nil | Nil |
| FY2022 (to 31 Dec 2022) | $8,634.7m | +14.4% | $0.64 | $0.66 | Nil | Nil |
| FY2023 (to 31 Dec 2023) | $9,871.6m | +14.3% | $0.89 | $0.90 | Nil | Nil |
| FY2024 (to 31 Dec 2024) | $11,313.9m | +14.6% | $1.11 | $1.12 | Nil | Nil |
| FY2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | $11,925.6m | +5.4% | $1.14 | $1.17 | Nil | Nil |
† Chipotle has never declared or paid a dividend. Long-term debt is genuinely nil: the us-gaap LongTermDebt tag reads zero at every one of these year ends in the company's SEC XBRL filings, and the FY2025 10-K states there were no outstanding borrowings under the $500m revolving credit facility at 31 December 2025 or 2024. The only debt-like liability is operating leases, which rose from $3,520.3m at FY2021 year end to $5,075.8m at FY2025 year end and $5,419.2m at 30 June 2026. Comparable restaurant sales over the five years ran +19.3%, +8.0%, +7.9%, +7.4% and −1.7%.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (13 wks to 30 Jun 2026) | $3,348.6m | $0.33 | $0.32 |
| Q1 2026 (13 wks to 31 Mar 2026) | $3,088.2m | $0.24 | $0.23 |
| Q4 2025 (13 wks to 31 Dec 2025) | $2,983.5m | $0.25 | $0.25 |
| Q3 2025 (13 wks to 30 Sep 2025) | $3,003.4m | $0.30 | $0.29 |
| FY2025 total (year to 31 Dec 2025) | $11,925.6m | $1.17 | $1.14 |
Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.3% on a 2.2% comparable-sales gain (check +1.2%, transactions +1.0%), with operating income of $525.6m and an operating margin of 15.7% against 18.2% a year earlier. Non-GAAP adjustments in the quarter totalled $18.2m pretax: restaurant asset impairment $3.9m, Recipe for Growth restructuring $3.3m, legal proceedings $10.0m and stock-based compensation retention $0.9m.
Cash generation for FY2025: operating cash flow $2,113.9m, capital expenditure $666.3m, free cash flow $1,447.6m, depreciation and amortisation $361.4m. At 31 December 2025 the balance sheet showed cash and equivalents of $350.5m, current marketable securities of $698.6m and long-term investments of $197.1m, with shareholders' equity of $2,830.6m and no debt. At 30 June 2026 cash stood at $228.2m, current investments at $449.7m and long-term investments at $97.1m, with shareholders' equity down to $2,199.8m after $1,354.9m of first-half buybacks. Price action is tracked on our Live Charts page.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $33.83 (close, 4 August 2026, down 9.72% on the salmonella investigation) |
| Market cap | ~$42.8bn ($33.83 × 1,265.4m shares outstanding as of 24 July 2026) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~31.0x on trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS of $1.09 (Q3 2025 $0.29 + Q4 2025 $0.25 + Q1 2026 $0.23 + Q2 2026 $0.32). On the equivalent adjusted TTM figure of ~$1.12 the multiple is ~30.2x; on FY2025 GAAP EPS of $1.14 it is ~29.7x. |
| P/E (forward) | ~24.7x on consensus forward earnings. Chipotle publishes no EPS guidance of its own — its 2026 outlook covers comparable sales, openings and tax rate only — so no management-guided forward multiple exists. |
| P/S (TTM) | ~3.44x (market cap ~$42.8bn / TTM revenue ~$12,424m) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~18.3x (EV ~$42.1bn / FY2025 EBITDA ~$2,297m; EBITDA = operating income $1,935.8m + D&A $361.4m from the FY2025 cash flow statement). Operating lease liabilities of $5,419m are excluded from EV; capitalising them lifts the multiple to roughly 20.7x. |
| P/FCF | ~29.6x (market cap ~$42.8bn / FY2025 free cash flow $1,447.6m; FCF = operating cash flow $2,113.9m less capex $666.3m per the FY2025 cash flow statement). On trailing-twelve-month FCF of ~$1,569m the multiple is ~27.3x. |
| Enterprise value | ~$42.1bn (market cap ~$42.8bn + total debt nil − cash $228.2m and current marketable securities $449.7m, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet) |
| Price/book | ~19.5x (market cap ~$42.8bn / shareholders' equity $2,199.8m at 30 June 2026). Retained earnings are negative at −$67.2m following cumulative buybacks. |
| 52-week high | $44.27, reached 18 August 2025 |
| 52-week low | $28.04, reached 4 June 2026 |
| Dividend yield | Nil — no dividend has ever been declared |
| Short interest (% of float) | 4.53% (50.63m shares short, settlement date 15 July 2026) |
| Days to cover | 2.57 |
7. What Are They Building
Recipe for Growth. Set out on 3 February 2026, the strategy has five pillars: protect and strengthen the core through operational and culinary excellence; evolve brand messaging and accelerate menu innovation and new occasions; modernise the business model with technology including artificial intelligence and a relaunched rewards programme; expand global reach through company-owned and partner-operated markets; and cultivate industry-best talent. Restructuring costs are being charged against the programme — $3.3m in Q2 2026.
New restaurants. The 2026 target is 350–370 openings including 10–15 partner-operated, following a record 334 company-owned openings in FY2025. The first half delivered 149 company-owned units, roughly 80% of them with a Chipotlane. That pace takes the estate past 4,200 restaurants.
International. Mexico opened on 16 July 2026 with partner Alsea, in San Pedro Garza Garcia in the Monterrey metropolitan area, with further Nuevo Leon openings planned for 2026 and Mexico City in 2027. The Middle East runs through Alshaya with roughly 15 restaurants across the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Asia arrives via a joint venture with South Korea's SPC Group announced on 10 September 2025, with the first Korean restaurant planned for 2026 and Singapore in early 2027. Company-owned international units total 104 across Canada, the UK, France and Germany.
Loyalty and menu. Chipotle Rewards was relaunched on 13 April 2026 as Rewards on Repeat — the largest change since inception, adding monthly free food drops, expanded redemption, selectable birthday rewards and extended points expiry. Active membership reached 23 million by late July, up 9.5% since the relaunch, with daily enrolments up nearly 20%. On menu, Chipotle Honey Chicken returned on 21 April 2026 with a cumulative attachment rate above 25%, and two further limited-time protein offerings are planned for the second half of 2026.
Automation. Autocado, the avocado cutting and coring cobot developed with Vebu, and the Augmented Makeline built with Hyphen Technologies both entered restaurants in September 2024. Broader equipment testing is expected during 2026 with any scaled deployment following later. These remain pilots rather than a rollout. Chipotle holds Series B preferred shares in Hyphen and stakes in Vebu, Nuro and supplier Tractor Beverage through its Cultivate Next fund, which made six further investments in July 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
Market capitalisations were checked live on 4 August 2026. Chipotle sits between the global quick-service giants and the smaller, faster-growing fast-casual challengers.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) | ~$190.7bn ($268.34 at the 4 August 2026 close) | Q2 2026, reported 4 August 2026: global comparable sales +1.3% with US comps of only +0.8%; revenue $7.10bn, up 3.7%; GAAP EPS $3.32, up 6% (McDonald's corporate Q2 2026 results) |
| Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) | ~$119.7bn ($104.97 at the 4 August 2026 close) | Q3 FY2026, reported 29 July 2026: global comparable store sales +7.9%, North America +8.1% with transactions +4.5%; net revenues $9.3bn; GAAP EPS $0.91 (Starbucks investor relations) |
| Cava Group (NYSE: CAVA) | ~$7.39bn ($63.44 at the 4 August 2026 close) | Q1 FY2026: revenue $434.4m, up 32.2%; same-restaurant sales +9.7% with traffic +6.8%; restaurant-level profit margin 25.1%; FY2026 guidance raised to 75–77 net new restaurants (Cava investor relations) |
| Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) | ~$13.69bn ($208.24 at the 4 August 2026 close) | Q2 2026 results due 6 August 2026; management indicated same-store sales tracking around +6.5% through the first five weeks of the quarter (Texas Roadhouse investor relations) |
The comparison that matters most is Cava. In the quarter Chipotle comped +0.5%, Cava comped +9.7% on 6.8% traffic growth at a restaurant-level margin within 100 basis points of Chipotle's. That is direct evidence of share movement inside the fast-casual bowl category Chipotle effectively created. Against that, Chipotle's forward multiple of roughly 24.7x sits well below Cava's, and above McDonald's at roughly 19.1x. Earnings dates for all of these are tracked on our Economic Calendar.
9. Leadership and Insider Activity
Scott Boatwright is Chief Executive Officer, having served as interim CEO from August 2024 following Brian Niccol's departure to Starbucks and been appointed permanently in November 2024. He remains in post and was quoted by that title in the 29 July 2026 results release. Adam Rymer is Chief Financial Officer and Curt Garner is President, Chief Strategy and Technology Officer. The senior team has turned over substantially: Ilene Eskenazi was elevated to Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer on 12 January 2026 as Chris Brandt departed as President and Chief Brand Officer; Arlie Sisson joined in a newly created Chief Digital Officer role on 4 May 2026; and Fernando Machado became Chief Brand Officer on 1 June 2026.
Insider activity in 2026 is almost entirely routine equity administration. There were no open-market purchases by any insider during 2026, and only one discretionary sale.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricia Fili-Krushel (Director) | 24 Feb 2026 | Open-market sale | 3,350 | $36.58 | ~$122,543 | Plan status not stated on the filing |
| Scott Boatwright (CEO) | 15 Feb 2026 | Grant, and withholding for tax on vesting | +229,457 granted / 120,810 withheld | $35.84 (withholding) | ~$4.33m withheld | Incentive plan — not a market transaction |
| Curtis Garner (President, CSTO) | 15 Feb 2026 | Grant, and withholding for tax on vesting | +254,846 granted / 134,177 withheld | $35.84 (withholding) | ~$4.81m withheld | Incentive plan — not a market transaction |
| Adam Rymer (CFO) | 15 Feb 2026 | Grant, and withholding for tax on vesting | +25,526 granted / 8,971 withheld | $35.84 (withholding) | ~$321,521 withheld | Incentive plan — not a market transaction |
| Laurie Schalow (Chief Corporate Affairs Officer) | 15 Feb 2026 | Grant, and withholding for tax on vesting | +76,577 granted / 37,113 withheld | $35.84 (withholding) | ~$1.33m withheld | Incentive plan — not a market transaction |
| Nine non-employee directors | 11 Jun 2026 | Annual director equity grant | 6,880 each | $31.25 | $215,000 each | Director compensation plan |
| Albert Baldocchi (Director) | 20 May 2026 | Gift | 6,672 | Not applicable | Not applicable | Gift — not a market transaction |
Separately, on 6 February 2026 Scott Boatwright received 444,445 stock-only stock appreciation rights with an exercise price of $39.39 — above the current share price — and had 8,048 shares withheld at $39.39 on 9 February 2026 for tax on an RSU vesting. Albert Baldocchi remains by far the largest individual insider holder at 3,224,640 shares. The net read is neutral: insiders are neither accumulating nor distributing, and the only discretionary sale in the year was worth about $123,000.
10. Key Risks
- Food safety, live and unresolved (Operational): Minnesota health officials announced on 4 August 2026 that jalapenos served at Chipotle and other Mexican restaurants appear to be the source of a salmonella outbreak of at least 110 state cases, with 89% of interviewed patients having eaten at Chipotle between 14 June and 14 July 2026. Chipotle removed the peppers and replaced them from other growers. The company carries a severe historical scar here from the 2015–2016 E. coli and norovirus outbreaks and the resulting 2020 federal resolution, and personal-injury litigation is a realistic consequence.
- Fragile traffic recovery (Operational): comparable sales were negative for most of the last two years — FY2025 finished at −1.7% with transactions at −2.9% — and the recovery to +0.5% and +2.2% is only two quarters old. Average unit volume has fallen from $3.213m at the end of 2024 to $3.102m at 30 June 2026.
- Margin compression (Financial): operating margin fell to 15.7% in Q2 2026 from 18.2%, and to 12.9% in Q1 2026 from 16.7%. Restaurant-level margin fell to 25.2% from 27.4%. Costs are rising faster than the sales recovery.
- Commodity and wage inflation (Macro): food, beverage and packaging rose to 29.7% of Q2 2026 revenue from 28.9% on beef and freight inflation, while labour rose to 25.0% from 24.7%. Avocado supply is a structural single-point exposure given guacamole's role in the menu and its dependence on Mexican imports.
- Competitive share loss (Competitive): Cava grew same-restaurant sales 9.7% with 6.8% traffic growth in a quarter when Chipotle managed 0.5%. Sweetgreen, Wingstop and value menus at the large quick-service chains compress the category from both directions.
- Valuation with no book-value floor (Financial): roughly 31x trailing GAAP earnings, 24.7x forward, 18.3x EV/EBITDA, 29.6x free cash flow and 19.5x book, for a business that grew FY2025 revenue 5.4% and EPS 2.7%. Buybacks have driven retained earnings negative, so there is no accounting equity cushion.
- Concentration and operating leverage (Structural): one brand, one segment, 97.9% of revenue from the United States, no franchise royalty stream to cushion a downturn, and $5,419m of operating lease liabilities against $2,200m of equity.
- Executive churn (Operational): since August 2024 the company has replaced its CEO, its President and Chief Brand Officer, and its Chief Legal Officer, and created a new Chief Digital Officer role. Retention equity tied to the former CEO's departure is still flowing through non-GAAP adjustments two years later.
- Legal and contingency exposure (Regulatory): Q2 2026 carried a $10.0m charge for legal proceedings expected to exceed typical costs, following a legal drag on Q1 labour costs and a $21.4m adjustment in FY2024. Wage-and-hour and predictive-scheduling litigation are discussed explicitly in the 10-K.
11. Recent Developments
- 12 Jan 2026 — leadership transitions announced. Ilene Eskenazi was elevated to Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer, succeeding Chief Legal Officer Roger Theodoredis, and Stephanie Perdue was named interim Chief Marketing Officer following the departure of Chris Brandt as President and Chief Brand Officer.
- 3 Feb 2026 — Q4 and FY2025 results confirm a negative comp year. FY2025 comparable sales were −1.7% with transactions at −2.9%; Q4 comps were −2.5%. Revenue rose 5.4% to $11.93bn with GAAP EPS of $1.14 and adjusted EPS of $1.17 on a record 334 company-owned openings. Initial 2026 guidance was for about flat comps and 350–370 openings, alongside the new Recipe for Growth strategy.
- 13 Apr 2026 — Chipotle Rewards relaunched as Rewards on Repeat. The largest overhaul since the programme's inception, adding monthly free food drops, expanded redemption, selectable birthday rewards, extended points expiry and a redesigned app experience.
- 27 Apr 2026 — Fernando Machado appointed Chief Brand Officer and Arlie Sisson named Chief Digital Officer. Machado took effect 1 June 2026 and Sisson, previously a senior digital leader at Hyatt, on 4 May 2026 in a newly created role.
- 29 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 comps turn positive but margins collapse. Revenue rose 7.4% to $3,088.2m with comps of +0.5% and transactions of +0.6%, but operating margin fell to 12.9% from 16.7% on the biennial All Managers Conference, wage inflation and legal costs. GAAP EPS fell 17.9% to $0.23.
- 4 Jun 2026 — shares touch a 52-week low of $28.04. The stock had fallen roughly 37% from its August 2025 high before the Q2 recovery.
- 11 Jun 2026 — annual meeting held and a further $1.3bn buyback authorised. All ten director nominees were elected and Ernst & Young ratified as auditor at the virtual meeting; the board approved an additional $1.3bn of repurchase capacity the same day.
- 16 Jul 2026 — first Mexican restaurant opens. Located in San Pedro Garza Garcia in the Monterrey metropolitan area with partner Alsea, following the development agreement signed in April 2025. Further Nuevo Leon openings are planned for 2026 and Mexico City for 2027.
- 29 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 beats and full-year comp guidance is raised. Revenue rose 9.3% to $3,348.6m on comps of +2.2% with transactions +1.0% and check +1.2% — a second consecutive quarter of improving traffic. GAAP EPS was flat at $0.32 and adjusted flat at $0.33. Full-year comparable-sales guidance moved from about flat to low single digit growth. The shares rose 12.5% the following session.
- 4 Aug 2026 — Minnesota salmonella outbreak linked to jalapenos. State health officials reported at least 110 cases, with 75 of 84 interviewed patients having eaten at Chipotle between mid-June and mid-July. Chipotle said its traceability system identified jalapenos from a common lot, removed them from all restaurants that had received them and replaced them from different growers. The shares closed at $33.83, down 9.72%, on roughly 2.6 times average volume.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Aug 2026 — further public health updates from the Minnesota Department of Health, the FDA and the CDC on the salmonella investigation, and any Chipotle disclosure of financial impact
- 30 Sep 2026 — end of the Q3 2026 fiscal quarter
- Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results. Chipotle had not announced the date as of 5 August 2026; it typically confirms roughly two months ahead, and Q3 2025 was reported on 30 October 2025
- 31 Dec 2026 — FY2026 fiscal year end, against a full-year target of 350–370 new restaurants
- Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with initial 2027 guidance; the FY2025 equivalent was 3 February 2026
- Expected Jun 2027 — 2027 annual meeting of shareholders; the 2026 meeting was held virtually on 11 June 2026
- TBC — first South Korean restaurant under the SPC Group joint venture, guided for 2026, with Singapore in early 2027
- TBC — no investor day has been announced; the company's investor relations events page showed no upcoming events as of 5 August 2026
There are no dividend dates to watch: Chipotle has never paid one. Capital return runs entirely through repurchases, with $1.7bn of authorisation remaining at 30 June 2026 following the additional $1.3bn approved on 11 June 2026. Discussion continues on the ChartsView Forum.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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13. Thesis Verdict
The central thesis. Chipotle sells food from 4,186 company-owned restaurants plus 15 partner-operated units, with 99.5% of revenue coming from food and beverage and no US franchise royalty stream, at an average unit volume of roughly $3.10m. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $11,925.6m, up 5.4%, with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.14 and adjusted EPS of $1.17, but comparable sales fell 1.7% on a 2.9% decline in transactions. On 29 July 2026 the company raised its 2026 comparable-sales guidance from about flat to low single digit growth, after a second-quarter comp of +2.2% with transactions positive for a second consecutive quarter, and it is targeting 350 to 370 openings this year funded entirely from a debt-free balance sheet. The structural driver is unit growth combined with the relaunched rewards programme, now at 23 million active members, where only about 20% of in-restaurant transactions currently scan.
What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would be a third consecutive quarter of positive traffic when Q3 2026 is reported, expected in late October 2026, together with restaurant-level margin recovering back toward the 26–27% posted in prior years. The thesis breaks if the Minnesota salmonella investigation announced on 4 August 2026 develops into a broader food-safety event and stalls the traffic recovery, if beef, freight and wage inflation keep operating margin below the 16.2% achieved in fiscal 2025, or if Cava and other fast-casual entrants keep taking share at 9.7% comparable-sales growth while Chipotle grows low single digits.
Watchpoints
- ConfirmsQ3 2026 earnings (84 days) landing in line with or above management guidance.
- ConfirmsEvidence supporting the "Traffic has turned:" thesis continuing to build across subsequent filings.
- InvalidatesMaterialisation of the "Food safety, live and unresolved (Operational):" risk, or any disclosure that fundamentally alters the capital-return or growth profile stated by management.
Diagnostic grid
Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 5 Aug 2026.
