Last Updated: 19 April 2026
QuantumScape Corporation (NYSE: QS) is a San Jose-based developer of solid-state lithium-metal battery technology aimed primarily at electric vehicles. The company spent more than a decade on R&D before beginning its transition to commercial-scale production, inaugurating its Eagle Line pilot facility on 4 February 2026 and recording its first-ever customer billings of $19.5 million in 2025. It remains pre-revenue under GAAP and loss-making, with $970.8 million of liquidity funding operations into the latter part of this decade. Q1 2026 results are due after the close on Wednesday 22 April 2026, and this is the key near-term catalyst.
1. Company Snapshot
| Full Name | QuantumScape Corporation |
| Ticker | QS (NYSE) |
| Sector / Industry | Automotive & EV / Solid-state battery technology |
| Founded | 2010 (Jagdeep Singh, Tim Holme, Prof. Fritz Prinz) |
| Headquarters | San Jose, California, USA |
| CEO | Dr. Siva Sivaram (since 15 February 2024) |
| Chairman | Jagdeep Singh (co-founder) |
| CFO | Kevin Hettrich |
| Market Cap | ~$4.37 billion (11 April 2026) |
| FY2025 Revenue (GAAP) | Nil; $19.5M customer billings (not yet recognised as GAAP revenue) |
| FY2025 Net Loss (GAAP) | $(435.1)M |
| Employees | ~700–800 |
| Exchange | New York Stock Exchange |
| Website | quantumscape.com |
2. Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Eagle Line pilot production is live. Inaugurated 4 February 2026 with the Cobra separator process fully integrated, turning a decade-plus of R&D into a physical blueprint for scale manufacturing.
- Commercial traction is starting. First-ever customer billings of $19.5M in 2025, all collected in cash, alongside a joint development agreement signed with an undisclosed top-10 global automaker in December 2025.
- Capital-light licensing model with a $261M funded runway from PowerCo alone. The expanded July 2025 deal with VW's PowerCo stacks $131M of new milestone payments on top of the original $130M, and grants PowerCo rights to up to ~45 GWh/year of QSE-5 production.
- $970.8M in liquidity funds operations into 2029. Management has explicitly stated that its cash position is sufficient to reach meaningful commercial milestones without near-term dilutive raises.
- Product performance is competitive on paper. QSE-5 B-sample cells deliver 844 Wh/L volumetric and 301 Wh/kg gravimetric energy density, 10-80% fast-charge in ~12 minutes, and >1,000 cycles at >95% capacity retention — all measured in-house and validated by shipment to multiple OEMs including the Ducati V21L programme.
Bear Case
- Still no meaningful GAAP revenue. After 16 years of operation, QuantumScape generates essentially zero GAAP revenue. Customer billings are development milestone payments, not cell sales at scale.
- $252M adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025 and guided to $250-275M again in 2026. Cash burn has plateaued rather than declined, and commercial production is still years away.
- Severe share dilution. Shares outstanding have grown from ~233M in 2021 to 612.58M by April 2026 (+13.35% in the last year alone) — a structural headwind even if the business succeeds.
- Timelines have repeatedly slipped. SPAC-era commercialisation targets (2024-2025) are now pushed to field testing in 2026 with commercial production possible in 2027 or later. A $47.5M securities class action was settled over prior overstatements.
- Heavy concentration and formidable competition. Volkswagen-related entities remain the dominant customer, while Toyota (8,200+ solid-state patents), Samsung SDI ("SolidStack" targeting 2H2027 mass production), Idemitsu-Toyota, CATL, BYD and Solid Power are all pushing competing chemistries — several with captive auto demand or supply-chain muscle QS lacks.
3. What Does This Company Actually Do?
QuantumScape designs solid-state lithium-metal batteries intended to replace the graphite-anode liquid-electrolyte lithium-ion cells that power today's electric vehicles. The core innovation is an anode-free architecture built around a proprietary ceramic separator: at charge, lithium plates directly onto the copper current collector, eliminating the graphite anode entirely and freeing up space for more active material. The separator blocks dendrite formation, which historically has been the failure mode for lithium-metal designs.
The company does not yet sell batteries at commercial scale. Its current revenue streams are: (1) milestone-triggered payments from licensing partners, chiefly Volkswagen's PowerCo; (2) joint development fees from automotive OEMs engaged in technical validation; and (3) sample cell billings for validation programmes. Full-year 2025 customer billings totalled $19.5M.
QuantumScape has chosen a capital-light commercialisation route: rather than building its own gigafactories, it intends to license the QSE-5 cell design and its Eagle Line production blueprint to battery manufacturers and automakers. PowerCo is the anchor licensee. The economic model therefore depends on (a) proving the process at the Eagle Line, (b) transferring it successfully to partners, and (c) collecting royalties once partner gigafactories reach volume.
4. The Business Model
Revenue, when it comes at scale, is expected to derive from a combination of upfront and milestone-based licensing payments plus per-unit royalties on QSE-5-based cells produced by licensees. PowerCo's expanded agreement (July 2025) includes up to $131M in milestone payments over approximately two years on top of an earlier $130M tranche, with production rights covering up to 40 GWh/year plus an additional 5 GWh non-exclusive capacity for third-party customers. Management has also stated that PowerCo has an option to double the original capacity.
Margins are not yet meaningful because the company has no product revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $252.3M in 2025. Management has guided full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a loss between $250M and $275M, and 2026 capex to $40-60M. The business is asset-heavy in R&D and pilot manufacturing today, but the licensing pivot is intended to keep QS itself from funding gigafactory capex — that capital would sit on partner balance sheets.
Competitive moat: the core protection is intellectual property. QuantumScape holds 288 global patents across 67 families (181 active), plus 119 US patent applications. Coverage spans ceramic separator chemistry (especially LLZO garnet), electrode manufacturing, cell architecture, and production processes (Cobra, Raptor). Citations of QS patents by Toyota, Samsung and Ford suggest the IP is taken seriously by the largest competitors. Beyond IP, the Cobra separator process itself — a ~25x throughput improvement over the prior Raptor process — is hard for competitors to replicate, and validated manufacturing partnerships with Murata and Corning are meaningful barriers to entry.
Supply chain dependencies: ceramic separator production is being scaled via Murata Manufacturing (JDA signed October 2025) and Corning (agreement September 2025) — two of the world's largest industrial ceramics companies. Lithium metal, copper and cathode materials (typically NMC) come from standard EV battery supply chains.
Subsidy and regulatory credit dependency: QuantumScape receives no material government subsidies or regulatory credits today. That is a meaningful structural advantage over Tesla-style revenue bases that rely on ZEV credits or IRA production tax credits — but it also means there is no subsidy cushion if commercialisation slips. US IRA Section 45X production tax credits could become relevant if QSE-5 cells are manufactured domestically by licensees, but those credits would accrue primarily to the licensee.
5. Financial Health
QuantumScape is pre-revenue under GAAP and loss-making. What follows is sourced from its Q4 2025 shareholder letter (11 February 2026) and prior 10-K filings.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Revenue | ~$0 | ~$0 | ~$0 (GAAP) |
| Customer Billings (non-GAAP) | n/a | n/a | $19.5M |
| GAAP Operating Expenses | ~$431M | ~$410M | $472.6M |
| GAAP Net Loss | ~$446M | ~$478M | $(435.1)M |
| Adjusted EBITDA Loss | ~$305M | ~$285M | $(252.3)M |
| Cash & Liquidity (year-end) | ~$1.0bn | ~$910M | $970.8M |
Cash and burn: year-end 2025 liquidity of $970.8M is the key figure. At the current adjusted EBITDA burn of ~$252M/year plus $40-60M capex, management states the balance is sufficient to fund operations through 2029 without a dilutive raise — though this assumes no significant capex step-up for internal production. Free cash flow has been consistently negative at several hundred million per year.
Share count and dilution: weighted-average diluted shares outstanding were 575.95M for the quarter ended 31 December 2025. Total shares outstanding had reached 612.58M by April 2026, up 13.35% year-on-year. The share count has grown from ~233M in 2021, reflecting the SPAC-era ATM programmes and employee stock compensation.
Debt: minimal — QuantumScape has approximately $73M of total debt against its near-$1bn liquidity pool.
Dividends: none paid and none expected.
6. Valuation & Market Data
Valuation metrics as of close of trading on 17 April 2026 (most recent complete trading day before report date):
| Share Price | ~$7.08 (range $7.06-$7.44 intraday on 17 April 2026) |
| Market Cap | ~$4.37 billion (as of 11 April 2026) |
| Enterprise Value | ~$3.4 billion (market cap less ~$970M net cash) |
| Shares Outstanding | ~612.58 million |
| 52-Week High | $19.07 |
| 52-Week Low | $3.65 |
| Position vs 52w Range | ~22% of the high-low range (closer to the low) |
| Year-to-Date 2026 | −42.5% YTD (partially recovered on week ending 17 April) |
| P/E Ratio | N/A (loss-making) |
| P/S Ratio | N/A (no GAAP revenue) |
| EV/EBITDA | N/A (EBITDA negative) |
| Price/FCF | N/A (FCF negative) |
| Short Interest | 13.72% of outstanding shares (84.02M shares); some sources cite up to 17-20% of float. Reported late March / early April 2026. |
| Open-Interest Put/Call Ratio | ~0.40 (call-skewed) |
| Notable Options Activity | Heavy call buying into 22 April 2026 earnings, concentrated at $7 strike (April) and $9 strike (May) |
Traditional earnings-based valuation metrics are not meaningful because QuantumScape has no GAAP revenue or profit. The stock trades on probability-weighted commercial outcomes: on cash alone the company is worth its $970M liquidity, so the market is pricing in roughly $3.4bn of enterprise value for the technology, IP, partnerships, and future licensing royalty stream. Quoted figures above are from live data retrieved on 17-19 April 2026 and change daily.
7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?
QSE-5 (first commercial cell): a ~5 amp-hour, 21.6 Wh, anode-free solid-state lithium-metal cell. Measured specifications: 844 Wh/L volumetric energy density, 301 Wh/kg gravimetric energy density, 10-80% state-of-charge in ~12.2 minutes, >1,000 cycles with >95% capacity retention, non-flammable ceramic separator. B1 samples (most advanced to date, produced using the Cobra separator process) began shipping October 2025.
Cobra separator process: QuantumScape's next-generation heat-treatment equipment for producing ceramic separators. Delivered and installed December 2024. Entered baseline production 2025. Company states that Cobra delivers a ~25x improvement in heat-treatment throughput versus the prior Raptor process, and occupies a fraction of the physical footprint per film start — the economic unlock required for gigawatt-scale separator production.
Eagle Line pilot production: inaugurated 4 February 2026. The Eagle Line is the first end-to-end pilot production line incorporating Cobra-made separators, designed to serve as the blueprint for partner gigafactories. Management has stated that its "core activity in 2026 will be to demonstrate scalable production of its solid-state battery technology using the Eagle Line."
Vehicle programmes in development:
- Ducati V21L electric motorcycle — the first vehicle demonstrator. Uses 980 QSE-5 cells; prototype shown at IAA Mobility Munich in September 2025. Shed 8.2 kg of pack weight versus the prior lithium-ion design. Developed with Audi and PowerCo.
- Undisclosed Top-10 global automaker — Joint Development Agreement signed December 2025. Identity not disclosed. Completes QuantumScape's 2025 commercial engagement goal.
- Volkswagen Group programmes — PowerCo-licensed cells earmarked for future VW Group EVs, with PowerCo holding rights to manufacture up to ~40 GWh/year plus an optional additional 5 GWh non-exclusive capacity.
Manufacturing partnerships for scaling ceramic separators:
- Murata Manufacturing — joint development agreement signed October 2025 for high-volume ceramic separator production. Murata brings ceramic sheet forming and firing expertise.
- Corning — agreement signed September 2025 for ceramic separator development and commercialisation. Corning brings glass/ceramic industrial scale.
Defence angle emerging: two senior defence-sector appointments in consecutive months suggest QS is positioning for defence/aerospace applications, which typically prioritise performance over cost and tolerate lower volumes — a logical early-revenue fit for solid-state cells:
- Ross Niebergall (former CTO L3Harris 2017-2023, former VP Engineering Raytheon, former CEO ThalesRaytheon Systems) joined the Board of Directors on 4 March 2026.
- Dr. Mark Maybury (former US Air Force Chief Scientist, currently VP Commercialization, Engineering and Technology at Lockheed Martin) joined the Strategic Advisory Board on 8 April 2026.
Management guidance from Q4 2025 earnings (attributed to management, not analyst opinion): CEO Siva Sivaram stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that QuantumScape achieved all four aggressive 2025 goals (Cobra baselined, Cobra-based QSE-5 shipments, Eagle Line installation, and expanded commercial engagement). Guidance for 2026: adjusted EBITDA loss of $250-275M; full-year capex $40-60M; focus on demonstrating scalable Eagle Line production and continued customer engagement.
8. Competitive Landscape
Solid-state battery commercialisation is one of the most competitive fronts in clean-tech. QuantumScape's direct and indirect competition:
| Competitor | Chemistry / Approach | Stated Commercialisation Target | Financial Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Power (SLDP) | Sulfide electrolyte; materials supplier model | Developmental; validating with BMW, Ford | ~$437M raised; currently loss-making |
| SES AI (SES) | Hybrid lithium-metal cell + AI software | Developmental; expanding beyond EVs to ESS, drones, robotics | ~$600M raised |
| Toyota (in-house) | Sulfide solid-state with Idemitsu partnership (¥21.3bn / $142M Idemitsu investment June 2025) | 2027-2028 commercial launch | 8,200+ solid-state patents; unmatched industrial scale |
| Samsung SDI | "SolidStack" sulfide electrolyte; pilot line operational | Mass production 2H 2027 | Profitable incumbent with auto and consumer customer base |
| CATL | Condensed-state and sulfide approaches | ~2027 initial; mass scale later | World's largest battery maker; deeply profitable |
| BYD | In-house R&D; vertically integrated | End-decade for mass market EVs | Profitable vertically integrated EV giant |
| Factorial Energy | Semi-solid FEST technology; Mercedes-Benz partnership | Mid-decade for prototypes | Privately held |
How QuantumScape differs: QS uses an oxide (LLZO garnet) ceramic separator with anode-free architecture, where most competitors use sulfide electrolytes. Sulfide approaches tend to offer higher ionic conductivity and better scalability via roll-to-roll processing, but require moisture-free handling and produce hydrogen sulfide if exposed to water. QS's oxide chemistry is air-stable but historically harder to manufacture at scale — which is precisely what the Cobra process is designed to solve.
Market size: solid-state battery market forecasts vary widely. Research Nester projects the market growing from $1.67bn in 2025 to $12.56bn by 2030. Astute Analytica sees ~$1.6bn in 2025 rising to $27.7bn by 2035 at a 38% CAGR. MarketsandMarkets projects $963M by 2030 from $85M in 2023 (41.5% CAGR). The range reflects genuine uncertainty about commercial adoption speed, but every major forecast sees the market as nascent in 2026 and expanding rapidly late decade.
Policy impact analysis: QuantumScape is relatively insulated from the direct impact of US EV tax credit or subsidy policy changes because it does not sell finished vehicles or cells into the consumer market today. The indirect exposure comes via customer demand — if IRA Section 30D EV purchase credits or 45X manufacturing credits are further weakened, partner automakers (notably VW/PowerCo) may slow US EV investment, potentially delaying licensing royalties. Competing Asian solid-state developers (Toyota, Samsung, CATL) are less exposed to US policy because their home markets provide captive demand.
9. Leadership and Ownership
CEO — Dr. Siva Sivaram: joined QS as President in September 2023; appointed CEO and Board member effective 15 February 2024. Previously President of Technology and Strategy at Western Digital; earlier Executive Vice President of Memory Technology at SanDisk. Also founded and ran Twin Creek Technologies (solar). Holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in materials science from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Over 30 years in semiconductors, 3D memory, and manufacturing scale-up. Selected specifically for the industrial/commercial scale-up phase.
Chairman — Jagdeep Singh: co-founder; former CEO; still the third-largest shareholder according to Simply Wall St data.
CFO — Kevin Hettrich: long-tenured CFO with the company.
CTO — Tim Holme: co-founder; Stanford-trained; CTO since January 2011.
Board: recently strengthened with defence-sector heavyweight Ross Niebergall (ex-L3Harris CTO) appointed 4 March 2026.
Strategic Advisory Board: Dr. Mark Maybury (former US Air Force Chief Scientist; currently VP Commercialization at Lockheed Martin) added 8 April 2026.
Ownership structure (most recent data, April 2026):
- Institutional investors: ~27-30% of shares outstanding
- Individual/retail investors: ~33-43% (QS is one of the most retail-heavy US stocks)
- Insiders and strategic holders: 8-10% by direct insider definition; higher if strategic holders like VW Group of America Investments are included
Largest holders (approximate):
| Holder | Shares | % of Shares Outstanding | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 32,440,612 | 5.93% | Passive institution |
| Volkswagen Group of America Investments (via Jens Wiese) | 53,014,769 | 9.69% | Strategic / partner |
| Frank Blome (PowerCo / VW affiliate) | 37,793,435 | 6.91% | Strategic / partner |
| BlackRock Inc. | 15,570,069 | 2.85% | Passive institution |
| D.E. Shaw & Co. | not disclosed | Top 10 | Quant / active |
| Capricorn Investment Group | not disclosed | Top 10 | Long-term active |
| Morgan Stanley | not disclosed | Top 10 | Multi-strategy |
Notable recent insider transactions (SEC Form 4):
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hettrich (CFO) | Late Feb / March 2026 | Sell (open market) | 9,800 | $6.2036 (weighted avg) | ~$60,795 | 10b5-1 pre-planned |
| Kevin Hettrich (CFO) | 25 Feb 2026 | Sell | 1,000 | ~$7.04 | ~$7,040 | Planned |
| Multiple officers | 25 Feb 2026 | Sell (tax payment) | Various | Market | $1,243,725.52 (aggregate) | RSU vesting tax withholding (automatic, not discretionary) |
Key observation on insider transactions: all reported sales in the last 6 months have been either (a) 10b5-1 pre-planned transactions, or (b) automatic tax-withholding sales tied to RSU vesting. These are routine and contain minimal information about management's view on valuation. There have been no discretionary open-market insider purchases in the period reviewed, which in itself is a neutral-to-cautious signal — not a bullish one.
10. Risks and Challenges
Execution risk: QuantumScape has missed prior commercialisation timelines. The original SPAC-era projections envisaged commercial cells by 2024-2025. Eagle Line is now the pilot-not-commercial production line, with field testing in 2026 and potential commercial production in 2027 or later. Any further slippage would stretch the cash runway.
Dilution: shares outstanding have roughly tripled from ~233M (2021) to 612.58M (April 2026). Even with $970.8M of current liquidity, any further ATM issuance, follow-on offering, or convertible note would add to the burden that equity returns must overcome.
Cash burn: adjusted EBITDA loss remains ~$250M/year. Although management has stated that runway extends through 2029, any combination of cost overruns, delayed partner milestone payments, or slower-than-expected revenue ramp would shorten that window.
Technology risk: no solid-state battery has yet been proven at automotive gigawatt scale by anyone. Manufacturing yields, cell longevity at elevated temperatures, performance in cold climates, and cycle life under real-world stress profiles remain open questions.
Customer concentration: Volkswagen/PowerCo is overwhelmingly the most important customer and strategic holder. If VW's EV strategy falters, or if internal VW Group competition between cell suppliers shifts away from QS, the commercial thesis is materially weakened. The undisclosed top-10 JDA signed December 2025 begins to reduce this, but the identity is not public and the economics are undisclosed.
Competitive risk: Toyota has 8,200+ solid-state patents and unmatched industrial capability; Samsung SDI already runs a sulfide pilot line and targets 2H 2027 mass production; CATL and BYD have formidable cost positions and captive demand. If any of them reaches scale first, QS's technical lead and licensing premium could erode.
Regulatory / policy risk: QS itself receives no direct subsidies today, but its downstream customers are heavily exposed to EV policy. A US rollback of EV purchase or manufacturing credits could slow customer capex plans. Export controls, tariffs, or Chinese regulatory action against US battery technology could affect licensing into Asian markets.
Legal/litigation history: QuantumScape settled a $47.5M securities class action covering the period 27 November 2020 to 14 April 2021, in which executives were accused of overstating battery capabilities. A related $8.75M derivative lawsuit was also settled. Both are resolved, but the history is relevant to how investors weight current management statements.
Key-person risk: Dr. Siva Sivaram was appointed specifically to lead the commercial scale-up phase. Departure or incapacity of CEO Sivaram, CTO Tim Holme, or chairman Jagdeep Singh would be materially negative.
Liquidity risk: not a near-term concern given the $970M cash pile, but would become material if EBITDA losses expand sharply or if equity markets close to further issuance after the current cash is consumed.
11. Recent Developments
Most recent news first.
- Week ending 18 April 2026: QS shares closed ~11.6% higher for the week as investors bought in ahead of Q1 2026 earnings due 22 April. Some intraday moves saw shares up as much as ~20% during the week. Prior to this rally, the stock had been down more than 40% year-to-date. Heavy call option buying reported at $7 and $9 strikes.
- 8 April 2026: QuantumScape announced that Dr. Mark Maybury, former US Air Force Chief Scientist and current VP of Commercialization, Engineering and Technology at Lockheed Martin, joined the Strategic Advisory Board.
- 8 April 2026: Q1 2026 business results scheduled for release after market close Wednesday 22 April 2026; earnings call at 2pm PT/5pm ET.
- March 2026: Market coverage of QuantumScape's first-ever customer billings of $19.5M (full-year 2025) prompted a ~5% rally on 23 March as the revenue-milestone narrative took hold.
- 4 March 2026: Ross Niebergall, former CTO of L3Harris and Harris Corporation and former CEO of ThalesRaytheon Systems, appointed to the Board of Directors. Signals defence-market positioning.
- 4 February 2026: Inauguration event for the Eagle Line pilot production facility in San Jose, attended by automotive OEM customers, technology partners, and state/local government officials. Core commercial milestone for the year.
- 11 February 2026: Q4 2025 results reported. Full-year 2025: GAAP operating expenses $472.6M; GAAP net loss $435.1M; adjusted EBITDA loss $252.3M (10% YoY improvement); customer billings $19.5M; year-end liquidity $970.8M. Q4 GAAP net loss $100.1M. 2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA loss $250-275M; capex $40-60M.
- 17 December 2025: QuantumScape announced it had signed a Joint Development Agreement with a new top-10 global automaker customer. Identity not disclosed. Completed QS's 2025 commercial-engagement goal.
- 23 October 2025: QuantumScape began shipping Cobra-based B1 samples — its most advanced solid-state battery samples to date.
- 8 October 2025: Murata Manufacturing and QuantumScape signed a joint development agreement for high-volume ceramic separator production.
- 30 September 2025: QuantumScape and Corning signed an agreement for ceramic separator development and commercialisation.
- September 2025 (IAA Mobility Munich): Debut of the Ducati V21L electric motorcycle prototype powered by 980 QSE-5 cells, the first vehicle application of QS solid-state cells.
- 23-24 July 2025: PowerCo and QuantumScape announced an expanded licensing and collaboration agreement. Additional $131M in milestone payments over ~two years on top of the earlier $130M. PowerCo granted rights to produce up to an additional 5 GWh/year of QSE-5 cells (non-exclusive) on top of the prior 40 GWh/year.
- 24 June 2025: QuantumScape integrated its Cobra separator process into baseline production, delivering a stated ~25x improvement in heat-treatment throughput versus the prior Raptor process.
12. Key Dates Coming Up
- Wednesday 22 April 2026 (post-market): Q1 2026 business results release; earnings call at 2pm PT / 5pm ET / 10pm BST. CEO Dr. Siva Sivaram and CFO Kevin Hettrich participating. The key event to watch — first update on Eagle Line pilot production since inauguration.
- Q2 2026 (expected July): next earnings release; expected update on any further top-10 automaker commercial engagements and on Eagle Line output.
- Ex-dividend date: not applicable; QS does not pay a dividend.
- Shareholder meeting: annual meeting typically held in June; 2026 date to be confirmed.
- 2026-2027: field testing of QSE-5 by OEM customers; first potential limited commercial production per company roadmap.
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