Last Updated: 26 August 2026
Copart runs the world's largest online salvage vehicle auction network. When an insurer writes a car off, Copart collects it, stores it on land it usually owns outright, and sells it on its VB3 virtual auction platform to a global pool of roughly one million registered members. About 85% of revenue is pure consignment fee income — Copart never owns the car — which is why gross margins sit near 46% and the balance sheet carries no debt at all. This report is a factual review of what the company has actually reported, drawn entirely from Copart's SEC filings, earnings releases and earnings calls. It contains no analyst ratings, no price targets and no forecasts. The most recent reported fiscal year is FY2025, ended 31 July 2025; the most recent reported quarter is Q3 FY2026, ended 30 April 2026. FY2026 closed on 31 July 2026 but has not yet been reported.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Legal name | Copart, Inc. (incorporated California 1982, reincorporated Delaware January 2012) |
| Headquarters | 14185 Dallas Parkway, Suite 300, Dallas, Texas 75254, USA |
| Founded | 1982 by Willis J. Johnson; IPO 1994 |
| Listing | NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker CPRT |
| Sector / industry | Industrials — commercial services; online vehicle auctions and vehicle remarketing |
| CEO / Leadership | A. Jayson (Jay) Adair, Chief Executive Officer since 31 July 2026. Willis J. Johnson, Chairman. Jane Pocock, President since 1 August 2026. Leah C. Stearns, Chief Financial Officer. Adair is the son-in-law of Chairman Willis Johnson, a relationship disclosed in the 8-K announcing his appointment. |
| Employees | Approximately 11,600 full- and part-time employees as at 31 July 2025 per the FY2025 Form 10-K, roughly 64% in the United States and 36% international. Some third-party data providers quote 13,800; the 10-K figure is the reported one. |
| Operating facilities | 281 globally at 31 July 2025, across 11 countries: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Brazil, Germany, Finland, Spain, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain |
| Registered members (buyers) | Approximately 1 million registered members in over 185 countries |
| Revenue (FY2025, ended 31 Jul 2025) | $4,646.9m, up 9.7% year on year |
| Net income attributable to Copart (FY2025) | $1,552.4m, up 13.9% year on year |
| Diluted GAAP EPS (FY2025) | $1.59 |
| Market capitalisation | Approximately $30.9bn (925,811,482 shares outstanding at 30 April 2026 at a share price of $33.33, 26 August 2026) |
| Dividend | None. Copart has never paid a cash dividend since becoming a public company. |
| Funded debt | Nil. The only debt-like liabilities are $93.1m of operating and finance lease obligations at 30 April 2026. |
2. Bull and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Land near cities is close to unreplicable: salvage vehicles are bulky, must be stored for weeks and must sit near where accidents happen. Property and equipment net stood at $3,715.9m at 30 April 2026, roughly 38% of total assets. Copart's own 10-K identifies the binding constraint as the ability to expand facilities in "no-growth regulatory environments" — municipalities near major metros simply do not permit new salvage yards, so a challenger cannot outspend its way in.
- A fortress balance sheet with genuine optionality: Copart carries no funded debt and held $4,199.7m of cash and held-to-maturity securities at 30 April 2026. On 23 January 2026 it replaced its old secured revolver with a $1,250m unsecured facility maturing January 2031, of which $1,228m was undrawn. Management described total liquidity of roughly $5.5bn on the Q3 call. Very few companies can fund a downturn, a hurricane surge and a buyback simultaneously without borrowing.
- International is compounding while the US digests: in Q3 FY2026 international revenue rose 14.1% and international operating income rose 25.0%, against United States revenue down 0.4% and US operating income down 0.5%. International units grew 5.9%, insurance average selling prices 8.4% and non-insurance ASPs 16.7%. Spain, Germany and Brazil are still early-stage markets on the Copart model.
- Total-loss frequency keeps grinding higher: management stated on the Q3 FY2026 call that US total loss frequency peaked at 23.6% in calendar Q1 2026, nearly five percentage points higher than four years earlier. Cars contain more sensors, cameras and structural adhesives, so the repair-versus-write-off maths tilts further towards Copart's inventory every model year, even as accident frequency itself declines.
Bear Case
- The core US business is shrinking in units: Q3 FY2026 global unit volume fell 2.4% and US insurance units fell 4.2%, roughly 3% excluding catastrophe effects. Only a 4.6% rise in average selling price kept revenue positive. Nine-month FY2026 revenue is down 0.2% year on year and nine-month net income up just 0.1%. A moat built on network effects is one thing; a moat that needs used-car prices to keep rising to show growth is another.
- Earnings growth is currently purchased, not generated: in Q3 FY2026 net income fell 1.0% while diluted EPS rose 2.4%. The entire difference is a 3.6% reduction in the diluted share count. Copart spent $1,632.5m on buybacks in nine months while cutting capital expenditure 46.3%, from $481.3m to $258.6m. Reported EPS growth is therefore flattering the underlying business, and the cash that funds it is finite.
- A governance cloud around an abrupt leadership change: the CEO seat has changed twice in about three years. Jeff Liaw's departure was announced on 29 June 2026 and the shares fell 8.02% that day to $28.10. Three law firms subsequently opened investigations into possible securities law violations. The newest director, appointed 13 August 2026, is a senior partner at the firm that serves as Copart's own outside corporate counsel, and the new CEO is the Chairman's son-in-law.
- Adjacent operators are growing units while Copart's decline: RB Global reported automotive gross transaction value up 13% with unit volumes up 11% in Q2 2026, and OPENLANE reported vehicles sold up 27%, over a period in which Copart's global units fell 2.4%. These are different end-markets, but the divergence is wide enough to raise the question of whether Copart is losing assignment share rather than simply riding an industry cycle.
3. Business Segments
Copart reports two geographic segments, United States and International. The chief operating decision maker is the Chief Executive Officer and the measures reported are service revenue, vehicle sales and operating income. Within those segments the more informative cut is the revenue-model split, because the two models have completely different margin profiles.
| Segment | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 82.96% ($3,855.1m of FY2025 revenue) | The core salvage business. Vehicles assigned by insurers after a total-loss determination, collected typically within 24 hours and sold on VB3 usually within seven days. Delivered 87.28% of FY2025 group operating income, at a US operating margin of 38.1% in Q3 FY2026. |
| International | 17.04% ($791.9m of FY2025 revenue) | United Kingdom (22 facilities plus Green Parts Specialist), Brazil (23), Germany (9), Spain (8 owned), Finland (4), Canada, Republic of Ireland, and the Middle East (UAE, Oman, Bahrain). Only 12.72% of group operating income because 34.7% of international revenue is low-margin purchased-vehicle sales versus 10.5% in the US. Growing at 14.1% in Q3 FY2026. |
| Service revenues (revenue-model view) | 85.40% ($3,968.7m of FY2025 revenue) | The consignment model. Copart never takes title. It charges the seller and the buyer auction and auction-related transaction fees, recognised as net revenue rather than gross vehicle selling price. Close to a pure fee stream, which is what produces the ~46% blended gross margin. |
| Vehicle sales (revenue-model view) | 14.60% ($678.3m of FY2025 revenue) | The principal or purchase model. Copart buys the vehicle outright, mainly under certain non-US insurance contracts at a percentage of pre-accident value, and via Cash For Cars purchases from the public, then resells for its own account. Gross selling price is booked as revenue against a matching cost of vehicle sales of $603.0m, a gross margin of just 11.1%. |
Insurance companies supplied 81% of total vehicles processed in FY2025, unchanged from FY2024 and down from 83% in FY2023.
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. An insurer estimates repair cost against pre-accident value. If repair cost exceeds pre-accident value less estimated salvage value, the vehicle is generally classified a total loss. The insurer settles with the policyholder, takes title, and assigns the vehicle to a remarketer. Copart collects the car, stores it, photographs and catalogues it, and auctions it. On a consignment vehicle it books only its fees as revenue, so roughly one dollar of service revenue is close to one dollar of economic value captured. That accounting distinction is the whole reason a business with $4.6bn of revenue produces $1.7bn of operating income.
The auction technology. Virtually all vehicles are sold on VB3, Virtual Bidding Third Generation. It runs a two-step process: an open preliminary bidding phase over the internet during the preview period, similar in format to an eBay listing, followed by a live virtual auction in which the BID4U proxy system bids on behalf of the high preliminary bidder up to their stated maximum. The 10-K's stated rationale is that removing the need to attend in person "increases the pool of available buyers for each sale, which brings added competition and an increase in the amount that buyers are willing to pay", while eliminating the expense and capital of holding live auctions.
Why land is the real moat. The network effect is straightforward — more buyers means higher bids, which means a higher percentage return on salvage for the insurer, which means more assignments, which means more inventory, which attracts more buyers. The 10-K lists "the anticipated percentage return on salvage" first among the factors insurers weigh when choosing a remarketer. But the network effect only works if you have somewhere to put the cars. Copart owns rather than leases wherever it can, and salvage yards are zoned for heavy industrial use in places that no longer grant such permissions. Owned acreage is also the catastrophe-response asset: surge capacity for a hurricane only exists if the empty land was bought years earlier.
Embedding into the insurer's workflow. Copart provides major insurance sellers with office and facility space for vehicle inspection stations located inside its own yards, of which there are over 100. It also runs Title Express, a title procurement and lienholder payoff service supported by direct computer links into the DMV systems of multiple states. Title is the single largest source of delay in a total-loss claim, because a car cannot legally be sold without clean title. Solving that inside the yard is a switching cost that a pure marketplace cannot replicate quickly.
Adjacent and machine-learning products. Purple Wave, acquired in fiscal 2024 and 80% owned with a 20% redeemable non-controlling interest, auctions offsite heavy, agricultural and construction equipment; its gross transaction value grew more than 25% in the twelve months to Q3 FY2026. Cash For Cars buys directly from the public. Co.ai applies machine learning and computer vision to total-loss determination and salvage valuation, and IntelliSeller uses machine learning to decide when to set minimum bids and when to re-auction a unit. Other brands include DRIVE Auto Auctions, National Powersports Auctions, CrashedToys, and Green Parts Specialist in the UK. A domestic long-haul delivery product launched around Q3 FY2026 added roughly $15m of year-on-year facility operations cost.
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5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from Copart's Form 10-K filings, Form 10-Q filings and earnings press releases. Copart executed two 2-for-1 stock splits — one effective for trading on 4 November 2022 and one distributed after the close on 21 August 2023 — a cumulative 4x adjustment. Every per-share figure in this section is stated on the current post-split basis, so FY2021 diluted EPS appears as $0.97 rather than the $3.90 originally filed.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 (ended 31 Jul 2021) | $2,692.5m | n/a (base year) | $0.97 | $0.97 † | Nil | $400m |
| FY2022 (ended 31 Jul 2022) | $3,500.9m | +30.0% | $1.13 | $1.13 † | Nil | $0m |
| FY2023 (ended 31 Jul 2023) | $3,869.5m | +10.5% | $1.28 | $1.28 † | Nil | $11m |
| FY2024 (ended 31 Jul 2024) | $4,236.8m | +9.5% | $1.40 | $1.40 † | Nil | $0m |
| FY2025 (ended 31 Jul 2025) | $4,646.9m | +9.7% | $1.59 | $1.59 † | Nil | $0m |
† Copart reports no adjusted or non-GAAP earnings measure of any kind. Its press releases contain only GAAP income statement, balance sheet, cash flow and segment tables, with no non-GAAP reconciliation anywhere. The GAAP figure is repeated in the Adjusted EPS column for completeness.
The five-year revenue compound annual growth rate from FY2021 to FY2025 is 14.6% and the diluted EPS compound annual growth rate is 13.2%. Long-term debt of $400m at FY2021 was a term loan retired during FY2022; the $11m at FY2023 was a residual finance lease obligation. Copart has carried no funded debt since.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 (ended 30 Apr 2026) | $1,237.1m | $0.43 † | $0.43 |
| Q2 FY2026 (ended 31 Jan 2026) | $1,121.7m | $0.36 † | $0.36 |
| Q1 FY2026 (ended 31 Oct 2025) | $1,155.0m | $0.41 † | $0.41 |
| Q4 FY2025 (ended 31 Jul 2025) | $1,125.1m | $0.41 † | $0.41 |
| Q3 FY2025 (ended 30 Apr 2025) | $1,211.7m | $0.42 † | $0.42 |
| FY2025 total (ended 31 Jul 2025) | $4,646.9m | $1.59 † | $1.59 |
Q2 FY2026 revenue of $1,121.7m is derived by subtracting the reported Q1 and Q3 quarters from the reported nine-month total of $3,513.8m. It cross-checks against the Q2 press release statement that revenue fell $41.6m, or 3.6%, year on year. Every other revenue and EPS figure above is as reported.
The quarterly EPS path is the story: $0.42, then $0.41, then $0.41, then $0.36, then $0.43. Nine-month FY2026 revenue of $3,513.8m is down 0.2% on the prior year and nine-month net income of $1,156.8m is up 0.1%. Part of that is a genuine comparison problem — the 10-Q attributes a $56.3m nine-month decline in US service revenue primarily to one-time hurricane Helene and Milton revenue recognised in FY2025 that did not repeat. But excluding catastrophe effects, Q3 FY2026 US insurance units still fell just over 3%.
Cash generation remains strong. FY2025 operating cash flow was $1,799.8m against capital expenditure of $568.99m, giving free cash flow of $1,230.8m. On a trailing twelve-month basis to 30 April 2026, operating cash flow was $1,685.4m and capital expenditure $346.2m, giving free cash flow of $1,339.2m. The improvement is almost entirely the capex cut rather than higher cash earnings.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, August 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$30.86bn (925,811,482 shares outstanding at 30 April 2026 at $33.33). Buybacks have almost certainly continued since that balance sheet date, so the true current count is probably lower. |
| Enterprise value | ~$26.75bn (market cap $30.86bn plus total debt $0.09bn less cash and held-to-maturity securities $4.20bn, per the 30 April 2026 balance sheet). Enterprise value is roughly $4.1bn BELOW market cap because Copart is deeply net cash. |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~20.7x ($33.33 divided by trailing twelve-month diluted GAAP EPS of $1.61, derived as FY2025 $1.59 less nine-month FY2025 $1.18 plus nine-month FY2026 $1.20). Copart reports no adjusted earnings measure, so there is no separate adjusted multiple. |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — Copart provides no financial guidance of any kind. It issues no revenue, EPS, margin or capital expenditure outlook, so no company-derived forward multiple can be constructed. |
| P/S (TTM) | ~6.65x (market cap $30.86bn divided by trailing twelve-month revenue of $4.639bn) |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~13.9x (enterprise value $26.75bn divided by trailing twelve-month EBITDA of $1.919bn; EBITDA = trailing operating income $1,696.3m plus depreciation, amortisation and accretion of $222.9m taken from the cash flow statement, which is the wider of the two disclosed measures) |
| P/FCF | ~23.0x (market cap $30.86bn divided by trailing free cash flow of $1.339bn; free cash flow = trailing operating cash flow $1,685.4m less capital expenditure $346.2m per the cash flow statement). Note that capital expenditure was cut 46.3% year on year in the nine months to April 2026, which flatters this figure. |
| Price/book | ~3.5x (market cap $30.86bn divided by total stockholders equity of $8,774.3m at 30 April 2026) |
| 52-week high | $50.11 |
| 52-week low | $26.81 |
| Short interest (% of float) | 4.98% (42,127,031 shares short against a float of 845,386,239, settlement date 31 July 2026). A vendor field quotes 5.67% on a different float denominator. |
| Days to cover | 3.29 (short ratio, settlement date 31 July 2026) |
| Net cash per share | ~$4.44 ($4,199.7m of cash and securities less $93.1m of lease obligations, across 925.8m shares) |
| Dividend yield | Nil — no dividend has ever been paid |
7. What Are They Building
Land, but at a slower pace. FY2025 added one new facility in the United Kingdom, two in Spain and three in the United States, bringing the total to 281. Capital expenditure ran $511.0m in FY2024 and $569.0m in FY2025, overwhelmingly land and yard development. That posture changed abruptly in FY2026: nine-month capital expenditure was $258.6m against $481.3m a year earlier, a 46.3% reduction, while $1,632.5m went into share repurchases. Whether that reflects opportunism at a lower share price or a shorter land runway than the growth narrative assumes is the open question the FY2026 10-K may answer.
A larger, unsecured credit line. On 23 January 2026 Copart entered a Senior Revolving Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo as administrative agent: an unsecured revolving facility of up to $1,250m including standby letter of credit and swingline subfacilities, maturing 23 January 2031. It replaced a secured revolver dated 21 December 2021 that would have matured in December 2026. Pricing runs at the applicable fixed rate plus 0.75% to 1.125% depending on consolidated total net leverage. At 30 April 2026, $1,228m was undrawn. Moving from secured to unsecured, upsizing and extending to 2031 gives Copart dry powder for acquisitions, capital expenditure, buybacks and international expansion on top of its cash pile.
Machine learning inside the workflow. Three named products use machine learning: Co.ai, a proprietary total-loss determination and valuation suite using computer vision to give sellers online salvage value estimates; IntelliSeller, which decides when to set minimum bid values and when to re-auction a unit to optimise return and cycle time; and Total Loss Express 360 for expedited total-loss assessment. Notably, the 10-K also treats artificial intelligence as a risk, warning that if new industry standards emerge around AI, machine learning and generative AI, Copart's existing websites and proprietary systems "may become obsolete".
Purple Wave and heavy equipment. Gross transaction value grew more than 25% in the twelve months to Q3 FY2026, driven by territory expansion and enterprise account penetration. This is Copart's push beyond cars into agricultural, construction and industrial equipment, which puts it directly onto RB Global's historic Ritchie Bros. turf.
International expansion. Spain has been the fastest-growing new market, with two new facilities opened in FY2025 and eight owned facilities plus three leased storage locations. Germany operates on a distinct model, generating revenue from listing vehicles on behalf of insurers and insurance experts to determine residual value and facilitate a sale for the insured, across nine facilities. Brazil is the largest international footprint after the UK at 23 facilities. The Middle East operates one leased facility each in the UAE, Oman and Bahrain.
Catastrophe response as infrastructure. The 10-K frames storm response as a core competence, citing the retrieval, storage and remarketing of tens of thousands of flood-damaged vehicles in South Florida after Hurricanes Helene and Milton in autumn 2024. That capability requires investment in equipment and empty acreage held in advance. It also cuts both ways: the FY2025 comparator was inflated by catastrophe volume that has not repeated in FY2026.
8. Peers and Competitors
Note two structural points before reading the table. IAA and Ritchie Bros. do not trade separately — both are brands inside RB Global. And OPENLANE changed its NYSE ticker from KAR to OPLN in December 2025.
| Peer | Market cap (August 2026) | Key 2025/2026 metric |
|---|---|---|
| Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) — adjacent online used-car retailer | $112.75bn | Q2 2026 retail units sold 197,325, up 38% year on year, and revenue $7.376bn, up 52%, both all-time quarterly records. Record net income $513m and record GAAP operating income $680m. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $2.7bn–$3.0bn from $2.24bn achieved in 2025. (Source: Carvana Q2 2026 results release, 29 Jul 2026.) |
| RB Global (NYSE: RBA) — owner of IAA, Copart's closest salvage competitor | $15.75bn | Q2 2026 gross transaction value up 11% to $4.7bn and total revenue up 11% to $1.3bn. Automotive GTV up 13%, driven by an 11% increase in unit volumes, with average price per vehicle sold about 2% higher. FY2026 GTV growth guidance raised to 9%–11% from 6%–9%. Carries $4.70bn of total debt against Copart's nil. (Source: RB Global Q2 2026 results.) |
| OPENLANE (NYSE: OPLN, formerly KAR) — dealer wholesale and off-lease marketplace | $4.19bn | Q2 2026 revenue $554.6m, up 15% from $481.7m; adjusted EBITDA up 19% to $103.2m; net income up 33% to $44.3m; marketplace GMV up 41% to roughly $10.5bn; vehicles sold up 27% to 481,000. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $385m–$400m. (Source: OPENLANE Q2 2026 8-K.) |
| ACV Auctions (NASDAQ: ACVA) — dealer-to-dealer wholesale marketplace | $1.24bn | Q2 2026 revenue $214m, up 10% year on year, but marketplace units sold flat at 211,472. Record adjusted EBITDA of about $21m, above the top of guidance; non-GAAP net income $10m; transport revenue up 19% on 125,000 transports delivered; Auction and Assurance ARPU $554, up 6%. Still loss-making on a trailing GAAP basis. (Source: ACV Auctions Q2 2026 results.) |
| Copart (NASDAQ: CPRT) — for reference | $30.86bn | Q3 FY2026 global unit volume down 2.4% with average selling price up 4.6%; global insurance units down 2.7% and US insurance units down 4.2%. Trailing twelve-month revenue $4.64bn and diluted EPS $1.61. Zero funded debt and $4.20bn of cash and securities. (Source: Copart Q3 FY2026 results release, 21 May 2026.) |
The comparison that matters is the unit line. RB Global's automotive unit volumes grew 11% and OPENLANE's vehicles sold grew 27% over the same period in which Copart's global units fell 2.4%. These serve different end-markets — salvage versus dealer wholesale — but the gap is wide enough to warrant scrutiny. Discuss the sector with other members on the ChartsView Forum.
9. Insider Activity
Chief Executive Officer Jay Adair took the role on 31 July 2026, having previously served as Executive Chairman. He made no open-market sales of Copart stock in 2026; his only disposals were three gift transactions on 20 January 2026 into family trusts and a family limited partnership. Chairman Willis Johnson filed no Form 4 at all in 2026. Across every Form 4 filed by Copart insiders in calendar 2026, not one insider purchased a single share on the open market. The table below covers all reported non-gift transactions of substance.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jane Pocock, President | 16 Aug 2026 | Grant (RSUs and options) | 25,308 RSUs plus 500,000 options | $0.00 grant | Not a purchase | 2007 Equity Incentive Plan award |
| Leah C. Stearns, CFO | 16 Aug 2026 | Grant (RSUs and options) | 12,654 RSUs plus 200,000 options | $0.00 grant | Not a purchase | 2007 Equity Incentive Plan award |
| David J. Berger, Director | 13 Aug 2026 | Grant (options) | 24,341 options | $0.00 grant | Not a purchase | 2007 Equity Incentive Plan, vesting monthly over 12 months |
| Jeffrey Liaw, then CEO | 28 Jul 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 27,745 sold | $30.49 | ~$845,800 | Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Apr 2025 |
| Jeffrey Liaw, then CEO | 15 Jul 2026 | Option exercise, no sale | 2,089 exercised | $6.78 and $8.70 strikes | No proceeds | Exercise only |
| Daniel J. Englander, Director | 13 Jul 2026 | Sale | 80,000 | $27.55 weighted average | ~$2,204,000 | No Rule 10b5-1 plan cited |
| Diane M. Morefield, Director | 8 Jul 2026 | Option exercise, no sale | 50,000 exercised | $19.775 strike | No proceeds | Exercise only |
| Jeffrey Liaw, then CEO | 15 Apr 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 26,213 sold | $33.18 and $33.17 | ~$869,700 | Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Apr 2025 |
| A. Jayson Adair, then Executive Chairman | 20 Jan 2026 | Gift (three transactions) | 50,161 | Gift, no consideration | No proceeds | Transfers to revocable trust, irrevocable family trust and JTGJ Investments LP |
| Jeffrey Liaw, then CEO | 15 Jan 2026 | Option exercise and sale | 25,137 sold | $40.17 | ~$1,009,800 | Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 15 Apr 2025 |
Two observations. Jeff Liaw's 2026 sales totalled roughly 79,095 shares for about $2.73m, all under a pre-existing 10b5-1 plan, at descending prices of $40.17, then $33.18, then $30.49, which simply tracks the share price down. The outlier is director Daniel Englander's sale of 80,000 shares at $27.55 on 13 July 2026, close to the 52-week low, with no 10b5-1 plan cited. Meanwhile the company itself repurchased 43,433,164 shares for $1,632.5m in the nine months to 30 April 2026, at a weighted average price of $37.63.
10. Key Risks
- Volume decline masked by pricing: Q3 FY2026 US insurance units fell 4.2% and global units fell 2.4%; only a 4.6% rise in average selling price kept revenue positive. Nine-month FY2026 revenue is down 0.2%. If used-vehicle values mean-revert while unit counts keep falling, revenue declines outright. Pricing is not a durable substitute for volume.
- Buyback-dependent EPS: Q3 FY2026 net income fell 1.0% while diluted EPS rose 2.4%, entirely on a 3.6% share-count reduction. Reported per-share growth currently overstates the operating performance of the business, and the cash and capex reallocation funding it are finite resources.
- Securities investigations and a governance cloud: following the 29 June 2026 announcement of Jeff Liaw's departure, which sent the shares down 8.02% to $28.10, Pomerantz LLP, Kessler Topaz Meltzer and Check and Bragar Eagel and Squire each opened investigations into possible securities law violations. These are law firm investigations, not filed class actions or regulatory proceedings, but the clustering is material.
- Related-party board composition: the new CEO is the son-in-law of the Chairman, a relationship disclosed in the appointment 8-K. The director appointed on 13 August 2026 is a senior partner at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosati, which serves as Copart's outside corporate counsel, and the 8-K concedes the company anticipates continuing to engage the firm. Combined with the point above, this is a legitimate governance concern.
- Weather and catastrophe dependence: the 10-Q attributes a $56.3m nine-month decline in US service revenue primarily to one-time hurricane revenue recognised in FY2025 that did not repeat. A quiet storm season depresses revenue; a severe one requires surge capital and operational strain. Management's long-term framing rests on declining accident frequency being offset by rising total-loss frequency, which is a bet on two opposing trends staying in balance.
- Customer concentration in a consolidating industry: 81% of vehicles processed in FY2025 came from insurance company sellers, and the 10-K states the primary selection factor is the anticipated percentage return on salvage. Contracts are competitively tendered against RB Global's IAA, and the divergence in reported unit growth between the two raises the question of assignment share loss.
- Land expansion constraint, now compounded by a capex cut: the 10-K flags the difficulty of expanding facilities in no-growth regulatory environments. The moat is also the ceiling. Halving capital expenditure in FY2026 while accelerating buybacks may indicate attractive land opportunities are scarcer than the growth story assumes.
- Technology obsolescence, in the company's own words: the 10-K warns that if new industry standards and practices emerge such as the increased use of artificial intelligence, machine learning and generative artificial intelligence, Copart's existing websites and proprietary technology and systems may become obsolete, and that developing proprietary technology entails significant technical and business risks.
11. Recent Developments
- 04 Sep 2025 — FY2025 results delivered a record year. Revenue $4.647bn, up 9.7%; net income $1.552bn, up 13.9%; diluted EPS $1.59, up 13.6%. Q4 EPS of $0.41 versus $0.33 a year earlier, up 24.2%.
- 26 Sep 2025 — FY2025 Form 10-K filed. Disclosed 281 facilities, approximately 11,600 employees, 967,478,690 shares outstanding, zero funded debt, no dividend, and no share repurchases at all in FY2023, FY2024 or FY2025.
- 20 Nov 2025 — Q1 FY2026 results and a disclosure change. Revenue $1,155.0m, up 0.7%; diluted EPS $0.41 versus $0.37, up 11.7%. Copart added a segment reporting table to its earnings press release for the first time.
- 23 Jan 2026 — new $1.25bn unsecured revolving credit facility. Signed with Wells Fargo as administrative agent, maturing January 2031, replacing the prior secured Bank of America facility that would have matured December 2026. Disclosed in an 8-K filed 26 January 2026.
- 19 Feb 2026 — Q2 FY2026 was the first outright decline in years. Revenue about $1,121.7m, down $41.6m or 3.6% year on year; gross profit down 6.2%; net income $350.7m, down 9.5%; diluted EPS $0.36 versus $0.40, down 10.0%.
- 21 May 2026 — Q3 FY2026 results beat but net income fell. Revenue $1,237.1m, up 2.1%, and EPS $0.43, up 2.4%, but net income down 1.0%. The release disclosed 43.4m shares repurchased year to date for over $1.6bn.
- 29 Jun 2026 — CEO transition announced and the shares fell 8.02%. Jeff Liaw to step down as CEO and resign from the board effective 31 July 2026, with Executive Chairman Jay Adair appointed CEO the same date. Liaw becomes Senior Advisor through 31 July 2027 on a package including a $450,000 lump sum, waiver of the ten-year holding period on his April 2022 RSUs, and elimination of price hurdles on performance options. The stock closed at $28.10.
- 01 Jul 2026 — law firm investigations opened. Kessler Topaz Meltzer and Check issued an investigation alert for Copart investors; Pomerantz LLP and Bragar Eagel and Squire also opened investigations into possible securities fraud and unlawful practices.
- 08 Jul 2026 — Jane Pocock promoted to President effective 1 August 2026, filling a previously vacant role. She joined Copart in January 2019 as Managing Director of Copart UK and was previously Chief Executive of Vans Direct.
- 13 Jul 2026 — director sells 80,000 shares near the lows. Daniel J. Englander sold 80,000 shares at a weighted average $27.55, about $2.2m, with no Rule 10b5-1 plan cited, and separately distributed 40,000 Ursula Capital Partners shares to limited partners.
- 31 Jul 2026 — Jay Adair formally becomes CEO and Jeff Liaw departs the board. This date is also Copart's FY2026 year end.
- 17 Aug 2026 — David J. Berger appointed to the board, effective 13 August 2026. He is a senior partner at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosati, Copart's outside corporate counsel, with a practice focused on corporate governance, mergers and acquisitions, and shareholder activism.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Sep 2026 — Q4 and FY2026 results, covering the fiscal year ended 31 July 2026. Copart has not yet issued its customary "to release results" announcement, which normally appears about a week beforehand. FY2025 results were released on 4 September 2025 and several earnings calendars list 9 September 2026, but that date is not company-confirmed.
- Expected Sep 2026 — FY2026 Form 10-K filing, which will disclose the full-year figures, the year-end share count and whether buybacks continued after 30 April 2026. The FY2025 10-K was filed on 26 September 2025.
- Expected Oct 2026 — DEF 14A proxy statement, which will set the annual meeting date and disclose the FY2026 compensation arrangements for the new leadership team. The 2025 proxy was filed on 24 October 2025.
- Expected Dec 2026 — 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Not yet announced, but the 2025 meeting was held on 5 December 2025 and the 2023 meeting on 8 December 2023. The 8-K appointing David Berger confirms a 2026 annual meeting will occur, since his initial term expires at it.
- Expected Nov 2026 — Q1 FY2027 results, covering the quarter ending 31 October 2026.
- 31 Jul 2027 — end of Jeff Liaw's Senior Advisor arrangement and the associated transition payments.
- 23 Jan 2031 — maturity of the $1.25bn unsecured revolving credit facility, of which $1,228m was undrawn at 30 April 2026.
Copart pays no dividend, so there are no declaration, ex-dividend or payment dates to track. Short interest is published on NASDAQ's bi-monthly settlement cycle; the most recent settlement date is 31 July 2026.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 5 September 2026
QuantumScape Corporation (NASDAQ: QS) is a pre-revenue developer of solid-state lithium-metal battery cells for electric vehicles, best known for its anhydrous ceramic separator and its licensing partnership with Volkswagen's battery unit PowerCo. The most recent reported period is Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 June 2026, reported 22 July 2026); Q3 2026 has not yet been reported. The company has never recognised GAAP revenue, posted a Q2 net loss of $98.2m, and ended June with $859m of cash and marketable securities. This report refreshes every section against the FY2025 10-K, the Q2 2026 10-Q and shareholder letter, and SEC XBRL data. Track the shares on our live charts, check macro dates on the economic calendar, and discuss the company in the ChartsView forum.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | QuantumScape Corporation |
| Ticker / Exchange | QS / Nasdaq (transferred from the NYSE on 23 December 2025) |
| Headquarters | San Jose, California, USA |
| Sector | Automotive & EV — solid-state battery technology |
| CEO / Leadership | Dr Siva Sivaram (president and CEO); Kevin Hettrich (CFO); Tim Holme (co-founder and CTO); Luca Fasoli (COO); Dennis Segers (chairman) |
| Employees | Approximately 700 at 31 December 2025 (FY2025 10-K), down from ~800 a year earlier after a January 2025 reduction in force |
| Market cap | ~$3.4bn (4 September 2026 close of $5.48; ~619m Class A and Class B shares) |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $0m — pre-revenue; non-GAAP "customer billings" were $19.5m in FY2025 and $21.8m in the first half of 2026 |
| Net loss (FY2025, GAAP) | $435.1m; GAAP diluted EPS -$0.76; adjusted EBITDA loss $252.3m |
| Latest quarter | Q2 2026: revenue $0m, GAAP net loss $98.2m, GAAP EPS -$0.16, adjusted EBITDA loss $64.2m |
| Fiscal year end | 31 December |
| Dividend | None |
| Balance sheet (30 June 2026) | Cash $132.9m plus marketable securities $726.1m; no funded debt (finance-lease liabilities only) |
2. Bull vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Technology milestones are landing: the Cobra ceramic-separator process was baselined into production in June 2025, QSE-5 B-sample cells shipped to Volkswagen, the Eagle pilot line was inaugurated on 4 February 2026 and a QSE-5-powered Ducati race bike has run in public.
- Capital-light licensing model: rather than building gigafactories, QuantumScape licenses its cell design and separator process to PowerCo (up to 85 GWh a year of licensed capacity after the July 2025 amendment, with up to $130.7m of milestone funding), keeping FY2026 capex guidance at just $27m to $37m.
- Second OEM validates the approach: Honda signed a multi-year joint research agreement on 18 June 2026 after completing its own benchmarking phase, adding motorcycles and power equipment as target markets alongside Volkswagen's EVs.
- Runway into 2029: $859m of cash and marketable securities at 30 June 2026 against an FY2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guide of $250m to $275m, with cumulative customer billings reaching $40m by August 2026, means there is no near-term financing cliff.
Bear Case
- Still no revenue after 15 years: the company has recognised $0 of GAAP revenue in every year since inception and management frames 2027 as the earliest window for meaningful commercial output; the accumulated deficit is $4.0bn.
- Dilution is the funding model: at-the-market share sales raised $264.2m in FY2025 and $128.5m in FY2024, and the diluted share count has grown from 409.5m in FY2021 to 617.1m in Q2 2026, so any future capital raise lands on a share price already down ~96% from its 2020 high.
- Dependence on PowerCo: the FY2025 10-K states the PowerCo collaboration is the only agreement with the intent to commercialise the technology; the royalty-bearing IP licence is still contingent on technical milestones and has not been signed.
- Competition is well funded: Toyota, Samsung SDI, CATL and Factorial are all pursuing solid-state cells with far larger balance sheets, and continued cost declines in conventional lithium-ion narrow the performance premium QuantumScape needs to command.
- Market has lost patience: the shares fell 31% in July 2026 and 14% in a single session after Q2 results despite an EPS beat, with coverage citing softening EV demand and unease about the pivot to a pure-licensing strategy.
3. Business Segments
QuantumScape operates as a single segment and has no GAAP revenue. The table lists the activities that generate cash inflows or contracted value today; percentages of revenue are not applicable because revenue is zero.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Solid-state cell development (single reportable segment) | n/a — $0 GAAP revenue | Research, development and pilot production of the QSE-5 lithium-metal cell (anode-free, ceramic separator) at the San Jose Eagle Line; all costs are expensed as R&D ($375.6m in FY2025) and G&A ($97.0m). |
| PowerCo (Volkswagen) collaboration and licensing | n/a — recorded as deferred customer billings, not revenue | Collaboration agreement (July 2024) targeting PowerCo mass production of QSE-5-based cells at up to 40 GWh, expandable to 85 GWh after the 17 July 2025 amendment, with up to $130.7m of milestone-based funding over two years and a royalty-bearing IP licence to follow. |
| Ecosystem and OEM partnerships | n/a — pre-revenue | Honda R&D joint research agreement (18 June 2026), ceramics-manufacturing partnerships with Murata and Corning, and prototype demonstrations such as the Ducati V21L race motorcycle; cumulative customer billings across partners reached ~$40m by August 2026. |
4. Business Model & Moat
How it intends to make money. QuantumScape is moving from a build-and-sell model to a licensing model. Under the PowerCo arrangement, Volkswagen's battery company would manufacture QSE-5-based cells in its own plants using QuantumScape's separator and cell design, paying a royalty prepayment and per-unit royalties once the IP licence is executed. Until then, cash inflows come from milestone payments ("customer billings", $19.5m in FY2025 and $21.8m in H1 2026) that are recorded as customer deposits rather than revenue. The Eagle Line exists to prove that the Cobra separator process can produce cells at scale and consistent quality, which is the gating item for the licence.
Where the moat lies. The core intellectual property is the anhydrous ceramic solid electrolyte separator, which enables an anode-free lithium-metal cell (lithium plates directly on the current collector during the first charge). If it works at scale, the design promises higher energy density, faster charging and improved safety than lithium-ion, and the ceramic chemistry is protected by a patent estate built over fifteen years. The Cobra process, which cuts separator heat-treatment time and footprint dramatically versus the prior Raptor process, is the manufacturing know-how that a licensee cannot easily reproduce.
Cost structure and cash burn. Operating expenses run at roughly $105m to $110m a quarter, of which about $13m to $20m is depreciation and $45m to $50m is stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $252.3m in FY2025 and is guided to $250m to $275m for FY2026. Capex has fallen from $158.8m in FY2022 to $36.3m in FY2025 and a guided $27m to $37m in FY2026 as the company stops building its own volume capacity.
Funding. The company has financed itself through the 2020 SPAC merger, follow-on offerings and at-the-market equity programmes ($128.5m in FY2024, $264.2m in FY2025). With $859m of liquidity at 30 June 2026 management says the runway extends into 2029, but every year of delay pushes the eventual royalty stream further out and raises the odds of another equity raise.
5. Financial Health
All figures are from QuantumScape's 10-K and 10-Q filings and the SEC XBRL companyfacts dataset. The company has recognised no GAAP revenue in any period. It reports no adjusted EPS; the adjusted column therefore repeats the GAAP figure†. Its only non-GAAP profit measure is adjusted EBITDA, quoted in the notes. QuantumScape has no funded debt; the only interest-bearing obligations are finance leases (non-current finance-lease liability $26.3m at 30 June 2026)‡.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $0m | n/a | -$0.52 | -$0.52† | Nil | Nil‡ |
| FY2022 | $0m | n/a | -$0.95 | -$0.95† | Nil | Nil‡ |
| FY2023 | $0m | n/a | -$0.96 | -$0.96† | Nil | Nil‡ |
| FY2024 | $0m | n/a | -$0.94 | -$0.94† | Nil | Nil‡ |
| FY2025 | $0m | n/a | -$0.76 | -$0.76† | Nil | Nil‡ |
† QuantumScape publishes no adjusted EPS; GAAP diluted EPS is repeated. Adjusted EBITDA losses were $249.2m (FY2023), $285.0m (FY2024) and $252.3m (FY2025). GAAP net losses were $46.0m (FY2021, flattered by non-cash gains on warrant revaluation against an operating loss of $215.3m), $411.9m (FY2022), $445.1m (FY2023), $477.9m (FY2024) and $435.1m (FY2025). ‡ No borrowings; finance-lease liabilities only ($39.4m non-current at end-2021 declining to $28.3m at end-2025).
Quarterly detail, most recent first. The FY2025 row is the audited full-year total.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (to 30 Jun 2026) | $0m (net loss $98.2m; adjusted EBITDA -$64.2m) | -$0.16† | -$0.16 |
| Q1 2026 (to 31 Mar 2026) | $0m (net loss $100.8m; adjusted EBITDA -$63.2m) | -$0.16† | -$0.16 |
| Q4 2025 (to 31 Dec 2025) | $0m (net loss $100.1m; adjusted EBITDA -$63.3m) | -$0.17† | -$0.17 |
| Q3 2025 (to 30 Sep 2025) | $0m (net loss $105.8m; adjusted EBITDA -$61.4m) | -$0.18† | -$0.18 |
| FY2025 total | $0m (net loss $435.1m; adjusted EBITDA -$252.3m) | -$0.76† | -$0.76 |
Cash flow and liquidity. Operating cash outflow was $127.9m (FY2021), $218.0m (FY2022), $240.0m (FY2023), $274.6m (FY2024) and $242.5m (FY2025), with $116.3m consumed in the first half of 2026. Capital expenditure fell from $127.2m and $158.8m in FY2021 and FY2022 to $84.6m, $62.2m and $36.3m in the following three years, and $14.6m in H1 2026. Year-end cash and marketable securities were $1,447.7m (2021), $1,061.7m (2022), $1,070.8m (2023), $910.8m (2024) and $970.8m (2025), then $859.0m at 30 June 2026. On a trailing-twelve-month basis to 30 June 2026 the operating loss was $440.7m, depreciation and amortisation $55.9m, operating cash outflow $236.1m and capex $36.5m. The diluted share count averaged 617.1m in Q2 2026 versus 409.5m in FY2021; because the company is loss-making, the diluted count understates the true dilutive overhang from warrants and awards, which are antidilutive and excluded.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
Price basis: $5.48 close on 4 September 2026. Share count ~619.1m (Class A 587.2m plus Class B 31.9m per the Q2 2026 10-Q cover, 17 July 2026). Earnings-based multiples are not meaningful for a pre-revenue, loss-making company; the components are shown so readers can see why.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ~$3.4bn (~619m shares × $5.48; market-data feed $3,371m) |
| Enterprise value | ~$2.5bn (market cap ~$3.37bn + funded debt $0 − cash and marketable securities $859.0m at 30 June 2026; finance-lease liabilities of ~$0.03bn excluded) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | n/m — loss-making. TTM GAAP diluted EPS is -$0.67 (-$0.18 -$0.17 -$0.16 -$0.16); TTM net loss $404.9m. |
| P/E (forward) | n/m — management guides an FY2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $250m to $275m, so forward earnings are negative. |
| P/S (TTM) | n/m — no GAAP revenue has ever been recognised. For reference, market cap is ~150x the $21.8m of non-GAAP customer billings collected in H1 2026. |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | n/m — EBITDA is negative. TTM EBITDA = operating loss -$440.7m + D&A $55.9m (cash-flow statement, twelve months to 30 June 2026) = -$384.8m; EV ~$2.5bn. |
| P/FCF | n/m — free cash flow is negative. TTM FCF = operating cash flow -$236.1m − capex $36.5m = -$272.6m; at that burn rate the $859m of liquidity covers roughly three years, consistent with management's "into 2029" runway statement. |
| Price/book | ~3.2x (market cap ~$3.37bn / stockholders' equity $1,048.0m at 30 June 2026) |
| 52-week high | $19.07 (intraday) |
| 52-week low | $4.77 (intraday) |
| Short interest (% of float) | ~19.0% (97.4m shares short against a 512.0m float, settlement date 14 August 2026, Nasdaq data via market-data feed) |
| Days to cover | ~4.0 days (same settlement date) |
7. What Are They Building
QSE-5 and the anode-free architecture. QSE-5 is QuantumScape's first commercial cell design: a roughly 5 amp-hour lithium-metal cell with no manufactured anode, using a proprietary ceramic separator to block dendrites. B-sample cells built with the Cobra separator process shipped to Volkswagen in 2025, and the company's 2026 goal is to demonstrate that the Eagle Line can produce QSE-5 cells at scale with consistent quality.
Cobra separator process and the Eagle Line. Cobra is the heat-treatment process that replaced Raptor in June 2025, cutting cycle time and equipment footprint by an order of magnitude according to the company. The Eagle Line, the pilot production line in San Jose, was formally inaugurated on 4 February 2026 and is the reference design PowerCo would replicate. Ceramics production is supported by partnerships with Murata Manufacturing and Corning.
PowerCo industrialisation. The July 2024 collaboration agreement and the 17 July 2025 amendment give PowerCo rights to up to 85 GWh of annual licensed capacity and provide up to $130.7m of milestone-based funding to QuantumScape. The next contractual step is the royalty-bearing IP licence, which depends on cells meeting agreed technical targets; management has said it expects PowerCo to begin low-volume production from a pilot line before scaling.
New applications. Honda's joint research agreement (18 June 2026) covers EVs, motorcycles and power equipment. The Ducati V21L race bike, first shown at IAA Mobility in September 2025, is the public demonstrator for two-wheel applications. JB Straubel, the Redwood Materials founder and former Tesla CTO, joined the Strategic Advisory Board on 3 June 2026.
8. Peer Comparison
Market caps are as of the 4 September 2026 close. Metrics are the latest reported by each company.
| Peer | Market cap (Sep 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| QuantumScape (QS) | ~$3.4bn | FY2025 revenue $0; net loss $435.1m; adjusted EBITDA loss $252.3m; liquidity $970.8m at year-end |
| Solid Power (SLDP) | ~$0.57bn | Sulfide solid-electrolyte developer; Q2 2026 net loss $23.8m on ~$1m of revenue; trailing revenue ~$7.4m |
| Enovix (ENVX) | ~$0.73bn | Silicon-anode cells; Q1 FY2026 revenue $7.6m and net loss $38.3m; trailing revenue ~$36m |
| Amprius Technologies (AMPX) | ~$1.4bn | Silicon-anode cells for drones and aviation; record Q2 2026 revenue $34m and FY2026 guidance raised to at least $140m; trailing revenue ~$109m |
| Tesla (TSLA) | ~$1,398bn | Largest Western EV and cell buyer; trailing revenue ~$103.6bn; in-house 4680 cell programme sets the cost benchmark licensees compare against |
| Albemarle (ALB) | ~$14.9bn | Largest lithium producer; trailing revenue ~$5.9bn; lithium-metal anodes would raise lithium intensity per cell |
| Toyota / Samsung SDI / CATL | Large-cap incumbents (TSE, KRX, SZSE listed) | All have announced solid-state programmes targeting commercial cells in the 2027 to 2030 window; none is a pure-play comparable but each is the competitive benchmark for QuantumScape's licensing pitch |
9. Insider Activity
Insider activity in 2026 has been small in dollar terms and dominated by tax-withholding sales on vesting restricted stock units and pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan sales. CEO Siva Sivaram (filed under his legal name Srinivasan Sivaram) disposed of 81,752 shares on 18 August 2026 to cover taxes on an RSU vest; CFO Kevin Hettrich made small 10b5-1 sales in June and July and a tax-withholding sale in August; co-founder and CTO Tim Holme's family trust sold its remaining Class A shares on 21 August 2026 for $76,465 while retaining Class B stock. Source: SEC Form 4 filings, CIK 1811414.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Holme (CTO, via trust) | 21 Aug 2026 | Sale | 12,723 | $6.01 | $76,465 | 10b5-1 (adopted 5 Jun 2025) |
| Siva Sivaram (CEO) | 18 Aug 2026 | Sale (RSU tax withholding) | 81,752 | $5.74 | ~$469,000 | Non-discretionary |
| Kevin Hettrich (CFO) | 18 Aug 2026 | Sale (RSU tax withholding) | 31,095 | $5.74 | ~$179,000 | Non-discretionary |
| Michael McCarthy (Chief Legal Officer) | 18 Aug 2026 | Sale (RSU tax withholding) | 25,709 | $5.74 | ~$148,000 | Non-discretionary |
| Kevin Hettrich (CFO) | 2 Jul 2026 | Sale | 9,800 | $7.28 | ~$71,000 | 10b5-1 |
| Kevin Hettrich (CFO) | 22 Jun 2026 | Sale | 9,800 | $7.94 | ~$78,000 | 10b5-1 |
| Ross Niebergall (Director) | 3 Jun 2026 | RSU grant (annual director award) | 24,183 | n/a | n/a | Board compensation |
10. Key Risks
- Liquidity and dilution: the company is pre-revenue and burns roughly $240m of operating cash a year; $859m of liquidity funds operations into 2029 only if spending stays on plan, and any slippage in the PowerCo licence would require further at-the-market equity sales at a share price already down ~96% from its peak.
- Commercialisation timing: QuantumScape has repeatedly pushed out volume production; the FY2025 10-K warns of significant delays and technical challenges in replicating early sample-cell performance at scale, and $26.6m of equipment was written off in FY2025 as obsolete.
- Single-partner dependence: the PowerCo collaboration is described in the 10-K as the only agreement with intent to commercialise; the royalty-bearing IP licence has not been signed, and Volkswagen, as largest shareholder with two board designees, has considerable influence over terms.
- Strategic-pivot execution: the shift to a pure-licensing model lowers capex but makes QuantumScape's economics depend entirely on partners' factory build-outs and EV demand, both of which are outside its control; investors marked the shares down 31% in July 2026 as this became clearer.
- Competitive displacement: Toyota, Samsung SDI, CATL, Factorial and others are targeting solid-state cells in the same 2027 to 2030 window, while falling lithium-ion and LFP costs raise the bar QSE-5 must clear on cost per kilowatt-hour.
- EV demand and policy: weakening Western EV demand, tariff changes and the withdrawal of purchase incentives reduce OEM urgency to fund next-generation chemistries and were cited in coverage of the July 2026 selloff.
- Short-seller pressure and volatility: ~19% of the float is sold short with four days to cover, so the stock moves violently on headlines in both directions, complicating any future equity raise.
11. Recent Developments
- 02 Sep 2026 — "Make-or-break 2027" framing gains traction. Coverage marking the shares as ~96% below their all-time high framed 2027 as the decisive year for commercial cell output, reflecting the market's compressed patience.
- 21 Aug 2026 — CTO Tim Holme's trust exits its Class A stake. The trust sold its remaining 12,723 Class A shares for $76,465 under a 10b5-1 plan adopted in June 2025, retaining about 1.2m Class B shares and derivatives; Holme also holds roughly 1.7m shares directly.
- 18 Aug 2026 — Executives file tax-withholding sales. CEO Siva Sivaram (81,752 shares), CFO Kevin Hettrich (31,095) and Chief Legal Officer Michael McCarthy (25,709) each disposed of shares at $5.74 to cover taxes on vesting RSUs.
- 12 Aug 2026 — J.P. Morgan Automotive Conference. Management disclosed that cumulative customer billings had reached $40m and reiterated the "scale, not hype" message on cost and performance targets for QSE-5.
- 23 Jul 2026 — Shares fall 14% after results. Despite the EPS beat and the Honda agreement, the stock dropped to about $5.03 the morning after Q2 results, dragging Solid Power and SES AI lower in sympathy; for July as a whole the shares lost 31%.
- 22 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results. Net loss narrowed to $98.2m (-$0.16 per share) with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $64.2m; customer billings were $10.8m in the quarter and $21.8m year to date; FY2026 capex guidance was cut to $27m to $37m from $40m to $60m while the adjusted EBITDA loss guide of $250m to $275m was reiterated.
- 18 Jun 2026 — Honda joint research agreement. Honda R&D signed a multi-year agreement after completing its own evaluation of QuantumScape's cells, making Honda the second major OEM partner after Volkswagen and extending the target market to motorcycles and power equipment.
- 03 Jun 2026 — JB Straubel joins Strategic Advisory Board. The Redwood Materials founder and former Tesla CTO joined the advisory board; director Ross Niebergall received his annual RSU award the same day.
- 22 Apr 2026 — Q1 2026 results. GAAP net loss $100.8m (-$0.16 per share), adjusted EBITDA loss $63.2m, capex $10.0m and liquidity of $904.7m; customer billings of $11.0m in the quarter.
12. Key Dates
- Expected 21 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results and shareholder letter. Market-data calendars list 21 October; other trackers show 22 or 28 October. QuantumScape typically confirms the date about two weeks in advance.
- Expected Feb 2027 — Q4 and full-year 2026 results with FY2027 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and capex, followed by the FY2026 10-K.
- Expected 2027 — Management's stated window for PowerCo pilot-line output and the first meaningful commercial cell volumes; execution of the royalty-bearing IP licence remains milestone-dependent.
- TBC — Announcement of any further OEM or licensing agreements beyond PowerCo and Honda, and any PowerCo milestone payments under the $130.7m funding amendment.
Undated items to watch include Eagle Line output and yield disclosures in each shareholder letter, and any resumption of at-the-market share sales.
Disclaimer: This research is produced by ChartsView for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is sourced from publicly available company filings, press releases, and official data. ChartsView does not use analyst opinions or third-party ratings. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your personal financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Last Updated: 7 September 2026
Tesla enters the final quarter of 2026 as two companies bolted together. One is a car maker whose deliveries fell in 2025 for the second year running, whose European share has halved since 2023, and whose automotive gross margin is being defended with price cuts and cheaper trims. The other is a capital-hungry autonomy and robotics venture that has just put a steering-wheel-free Cybercab into commercial service in Austin, is installing Optimus production lines at Fremont, and is guiding to more than $25bn of capital expenditure this year. The reported numbers describe the first company. The share price is underwriting the second. This report sets out what the filings actually say — revenue, margins, cash flow, debt, insider activity and scheduled events — from Tesla's own SEC filings and press releases, with every valuation input shown as a calculation rather than an assertion.
1. Company Snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Company | Tesla, Inc. |
| Ticker / exchange | TSLA, Nasdaq Global Select (confirmed via market data, 4 September 2026) |
| Incorporation | Texas (reincorporated from Delaware in 2024) |
| CEO / Leadership | Elon Musk (Chief Executive Officer); Vaibhav Taneja (Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer, in post since August 2023) |
| Employees | 134,785 at 31 December 2025 (FY2025 Form 10-K), up 7.3% from 125,665 a year earlier |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $94,827m, down 2.9% year on year |
| Net income (FY2025, GAAP) | $3,794m; GAAP diluted EPS $1.08 |
| Revenue (trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026) | $103,619m |
| Market cap | $1,398.5bn (4 September 2026 close of $354.08 on 3,949,547,394 shares outstanding per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover page) |
| Vehicle deliveries (FY2025) | 1,636,129 units, down from 1,789,226 in FY2024 |
| Energy storage deployed (FY2025) | 46.7 GWh, up from 31.4 GWh in FY2024 |
| Dividend | None. Tesla has never declared or paid a cash dividend |
| Most recent reported period | Q2 2026, reported 22 July 2026. Q3 2026 has not yet been reported |
Live price action for TSLA and its peers can be followed on the ChartsView Live Charts page.
2. Bull Case and Bear Case
Bull Case
- Autonomy is now revenue-generating, not a slide: Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder update confirms unsupervised robotaxi operation ramping in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, with the San Francisco Bay Area running under a safety-driver permit, and a purpose-built Cybercab entered commercial service in Austin on 3 September 2026. Whatever the eventual economics, the transition from demonstration to fare-collecting fleet has happened.
- Energy storage is compounding while autos shrink: deployments rose from 31.4 GWh in FY2025's prior year to 46.7 GWh in FY2025, and Q2 2026 delivered 13.5 GWh, the second-highest quarter on record. Megapack 3 and Megablock production at Megafactory Houston is guided to start in 2026 with up to 50 GWh of annual capacity.
- Balance sheet funds the experiment without dilution: cash and short-term investments stood at $43,524m at 30 June 2026 against total debt of $9,061m excluding finance leases. Trailing operating cash flow of $18,685m covers a record capital programme without recourse to equity markets.
- Manufacturing cost curve still bending: automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits improved from 12.5% in Q1 2025 to 19.2% in Q1 2026, and the cheaper Standard Model 3 and Model Y trims launched in October 2025 give Tesla a price weapon that loss-making EV rivals cannot match.
- Optimus moves from prototype to line: Tesla decommissioned the Fremont Model S and Model X lines to install first-generation Optimus production, with output anticipated later in 2026. The 2025 CEO Performance Award ties Musk's compensation to selling one million units, aligning the largest shareholder with the outcome.
Bear Case
- The core business is contracting: revenue fell from $97,690m in FY2024 to $94,827m in FY2025 and deliveries fell from 1,789,226 to 1,636,129. Operating income has fallen for three consecutive years, from $13,656m in FY2022 to $4,355m in FY2025.
- Free cash flow has gone negative on the capex ramp: Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $4,697m was outspent by $5,796m of capital expenditure, producing negative free cash flow of $1,099m in the quarter. Management has guided capex above $25bn for FY2026 and rising further for two to three years.
- Regional demand is deteriorating in the two largest EV markets: China sales fell 45% year on year in January 2026 with exports rising to 49% of Giga Shanghai output, while European registrations fell for thirteen consecutive months and FY2025 EU share dropped to 8.9% from 18.2% in FY2023.
- Regulatory exposure sits directly on the growth story: NHTSA escalated its Full Self-Driving probe to a formal Engineering Analysis covering roughly 3.2 million vehicles on 18 March 2026, and opened an audit query into Cybercab self-certification on 4 September 2026. The autonomy narrative is being underwritten by regulators who have not yet signed off.
- Earnings quality is thin at this valuation: trailing GAAP diluted EPS of $1.08 puts the shares on more than three hundred times earnings, and the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP has widened as share-based compensation rose to $2,825m in FY2025 from $1,999m in FY2024.
3. Business Segments
Tesla reports two operating segments — Automotive, and Energy generation and storage — but discloses revenue across five categories in its income statement. The FY2025 split below is taken from the four quarterly statements of operations, cross-checked to the annual total of $94,827m.
| Segment / category | % of revenue | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive sales | 69.4% ($65,821m) | Outright sale of Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X and Cybertruck, including Full Self-Driving software recognised on delivery |
| Energy generation and storage | 13.5% ($12,771m) | Megapack and Megablock grid-scale batteries, Powerwall residential storage and solar, sold to utilities, developers and homeowners |
| Services and other | 13.2% ($12,530m) | Supercharging, service centres, used-vehicle sales, insurance, merchandise and parts |
| Automotive regulatory credits | 2.1% ($1,993m) | Sale of zero-emission and greenhouse-gas credits to other manufacturers, effectively pure gross profit |
| Automotive leasing | 1.8% ($1,712m) | Direct and dealer leasing programmes where Tesla retains the vehicle on balance sheet |
4. Business Model and Moat
How it makes money. Roughly three-quarters of Tesla's revenue is a single transaction: a customer buys a car, and Tesla books the vehicle plus any Full Self-Driving software at the point of delivery. Because Tesla sells direct rather than through franchised dealers, it captures the retail margin that legacy manufacturers hand away, and it can reprice its entire range overnight. That same directness is why volume and margin move together so violently — there is no dealer inventory buffer to absorb a demand air pocket.
Where the durable advantage sits. The moat is not the car. It is the vertically integrated cost base: in-house battery cell and pack manufacturing, in-house power electronics, in-house inference silicon, a proprietary Supercharger network now opened to rivals on Tesla's terms, and a fleet that returns real-world driving data at a scale no competitor can replicate. Regulatory credits at $1,993m in FY2025 are pure margin extracted from competitors' compliance shortfalls, and the energy business reuses the same cell chemistry and manufacturing know-how as the vehicles.
What is being reinvested, and why it matters. Tesla is deliberately converting today's automotive cash flow into tomorrow's autonomy and robotics capacity. Capital expenditure of $12,923m over the twelve months to 30 June 2026 exceeded FY2025's full-year $8,527m, and management has guided above $25bn for FY2026. The economic question is whether robotaxi and Optimus generate returns before the automotive engine funding them weakens further.
Where the model is fragile. The company has no dividend, no meaningful buyback, and a revenue base that is now shrinking. Its cheapest competitive weapon is price, which is also the fastest route to margin erosion. And the highest-value part of the story — driverless commercial operation — is gated by federal safety standards written for cars with steering wheels.
5. Financial Health
All figures below are taken from Tesla's own SEC filings and quarterly shareholder updates. Fiscal years end 31 December. Tesla pays no dividend, so that column reads nil throughout.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($m) | YoY % | GAAP EPS | Adjusted EPS | Dividend/share | Long-term debt (YE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 53,823 | +70.7% | $1.63 | $2.28 | $0.00 | $4,254m |
| FY2022 | 81,462 | +51.4% | $3.62 | $4.12 | $0.00 | $1,029m |
| FY2023 | 96,773 | +18.8% | $4.30 | $3.12 | $0.00 | $2,682m |
| FY2024 | 97,690 | +0.9% | $2.04 | $2.29 | $0.00 | $5,535m |
| FY2025 | 94,827 | -2.9% | $1.08 | $1.66 | $0.00 | $6,584m |
† Long-term debt is the non-current portion of debt excluding finance leases, per the SEC XBRL LongTermDebt tag. Adding the current portion and finance lease obligations gives total FY2025 obligations of $8,376m, rising to $9,342m at 30 June 2026. ‡ Adjusted EPS is Tesla's own non-GAAP diluted figure; FY2024 is shown at Tesla's restated $2.29 rather than the originally published $2.42, following the 2025 policy change that excludes digital-asset gains and losses from non-GAAP income with prior periods recast.
Cash generation and reinvestment over the twelve months to 30 June 2026: operating cash flow $18,685m, capital expenditure $12,923m, free cash flow $5,762m, depreciation and amortisation $6,477m. Cash and short-term investments totalled $43,524m at 30 June 2026 against total debt of $9,061m excluding finance leases, leaving Tesla comfortably net cash. Shareholders' equity was $86,858m.
| Quarter / Half | Revenue ($m) | Adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 28,236 | $0.33 | $0.32 |
| Q1 2026 | 22,387 | $0.41 | $0.13 |
| Q4 2025 | 24,901 | $0.50 | $0.24 |
| Q3 2025 | 28,095 | $0.50 | $0.39 |
| Q2 2025 | 22,496 | $0.40 | $0.33 |
| Q1 2025 | 19,335 | $0.27 | $0.12 |
| FY2025 total | 94,827 | $1.66 | $1.08 |
The quarterly series shows the squeeze plainly. Q2 2026 revenue of $28,236m was an all-time record and deliveries of 480,126 were a record second quarter, yet operating income fell to $398m from $923m a year earlier, because capital and operating spend on autonomy, Optimus and energy capacity is running ahead of the revenue it has so far produced.
6. Valuation Metrics
Raw metrics, September 2026. Not opinions on whether the stock is cheap or expensive.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap | $1,398.5bn (3,949,547,394 shares at the $354.08 close of 4 September 2026) |
| Trailing P/E (GAAP) | ~328x (price $354.08 / trailing twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS $1.08, being the sum of Q3 2025 to Q2 2026). On Tesla's own non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 over the same four quarters the multiple is ~204x |
| P/E (forward) | ~164x (price $354.08 / forward EPS estimate $2.16) |
| P/S (TTM) | ~13.5x (market cap $1,398.5bn / trailing revenue $103.6bn) |
| Enterprise value | ~$1,364.3bn (market cap $1,398.5bn + total debt $9.3bn including finance leases − cash and short-term investments $43.5bn, per the 30 June 2026 balance sheet). Tesla is net cash, so enterprise value sits below market capitalisation |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~126x (EV $1,364.3bn / EBITDA $10.85bn; EBITDA = trailing operating income $4.37bn + depreciation and amortisation $6.48bn taken on the wider cash-flow-statement basis including impairment, which is the basis used here) |
| P/FCF | ~243x (market cap $1,398.5bn / free cash flow $5.76bn; FCF = trailing operating cash flow $18.69bn − capital expenditure $12.92bn). Note that Q2 2026 free cash flow alone was negative $1.1bn as the capex ramp accelerated |
| 52-week high | $498.83 intraday |
| 52-week low | $297.38 intraday |
| Short interest (% of float) | 1.96% of float, being 69,196,896 shares short at the 14 August 2026 settlement date |
| Days to cover | 1.82 days at the 14 August 2026 settlement date |
| Price/book | ~16.1x (share price $354.08 / book value per share $22.00 on shareholders' equity of $86,858m at 30 June 2026) |
The arithmetic above is unambiguous about one thing: on trailing reported earnings and cash flow, Tesla is priced as an autonomy and robotics company, not as a manufacturer of 1.6 million cars a year. Every one of these multiples is a statement about what has to happen next, not about what has already happened.
7. What Are They Building
Robotaxi and Cybercab. As of the Q2 2026 update on 22 July 2026, unsupervised robotaxi service was live or ramping in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, with the San Francisco Bay Area operating under a safety-driver permit. On 3 September 2026 Tesla held a Cybercab launch event in Austin, putting a purpose-built two-seat vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals into geofenced commercial service. NHTSA opened an audit query on 4 September 2026 into how Tesla self-certified roughly 1,000 of these vehicles against federal motor vehicle safety standards. Musk said on 22 January 2026 that robotaxis would be widespread across the United States by the end of 2026; the fleet had reached roughly 37% of Waymo's registered Texas fleet size by late August 2026.
Optimus. Tesla decommissioned the Fremont Model S and Model X lines to install first-generation Optimus production equipment, with output anticipated later in 2026 — a slip from the late-July to August timing indicated earlier in the year. The 2025 CEO Performance Award approved by shareholders on 6 November 2025 includes a milestone tied to selling one million Optimus units.
Energy storage capacity. Megapack 3 and Megablock are guided to enter production during 2026 at Megafactory Houston, with capacity of up to 50 GWh a year. Tesla Semi is also guided to start production in 2026.
Full Self-Driving. Development continues under the Engineering Analysis opened by NHTSA on 18 March 2026, which covers approximately 3.2 million vehicles and cites nine documented crashes including one fatality.
xAI relationship. On 16 January 2026 Tesla disclosed an investment of approximately $2bn in xAI Series E preferred stock alongside an AI collaboration framework agreement, expected to close in Q1 2026.
8. Competitive Landscape
Market capitalisations below were re-checked live on 4 September 2026 and are not carried over from earlier in the year. The comparison is deliberately uncomfortable: Tesla's capitalisation exceeds the combined value of every company in the table by a wide margin, on lower unit volume than BYD.
| Peer | Market cap (September 2026) | Key 2025 metric |
|---|---|---|
| BYD (BYDDY) | $99.7bn | FY2025 global new energy vehicle sales of 4,602,436 units, up 7.7%, of which 2,256,714 were battery-electric — overtaking Tesla's 1,636,129 to become the largest BEV maker in the world |
| General Motors (GM) | $79.4bn | FY2025 US electric vehicle sales of 169,887 units, up 48% year on year |
| Ford (F) | $58.3bn | FY2025 US electric vehicle sales of 84,113 units, down 14% year on year |
| Rivian (RIVN) | $22.8bn | FY2025 revenue of $5,387m, up 8%, on 42,247 deliveries, with a first full year of positive gross profit of $144m |
| Li Auto (LI) | $12.1bn | FY2025 deliveries of 406,343 vehicles on revenue of RMB112.3bn |
| NIO | $9.5bn | FY2025 deliveries of 326,028 vehicles across the NIO, ONVO and Firefly brands, up 46.9% |
| Lucid (LCID) | $1.8bn | FY2025 deliveries of 15,841 vehicles, up 55%, on production of 18,378 units |
The competitive threat is not symmetric. In China, BYD and the domestic newcomers are taking share on price and feature cadence. In the United States, GM has doubled Ford's EV volume and is the closest domestic challenger. In autonomy, the relevant competitor is not a car maker at all but Alphabet's Waymo, which currently operates a larger registered fleet in Texas than Tesla.
9. Insider Activity
Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk remains by far the most significant insider, and the two transactions below dominate the recent record. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja and the wider executive team file routinely under Rule 10b5-1 plans; the entries below are those verifiable from SEC Form 4 disclosure and contemporaneous reporting.
| Name | Date | Type | Shares | Price | Value | Plan Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk (CEO) | 12 Sep 2025 | Open-market purchase | ~2,570,000 | ~$390 | ~$1.0bn | Discretionary, not a 10b5-1 plan; first open-market purchase since February 2020 |
| Elon Musk (CEO) | 16 Jun 2026 | Option exercise, shares retained | 303,960,630 | $23.34 strike | ~$14.19bn | Exercise of the reinstated 2018 award; 17,531,857 shares withheld at $404.66 for tax, no open-market sale |
Two points matter more than the totals. First, Musk's September 2025 purchase was made with his own cash on the open market rather than through a plan, which is the strongest form of insider signal available. Second, the June 2026 exercise added materially to the share count — the Form 10-Q cover page count rose from 3,325,819,167 at 16 October 2025 to 3,949,547,394 at 16 July 2026 — so per-share metrics are being diluted by compensation even as no equity has been raised from outside investors.
10. Key Risks
- Autonomy regulation: NHTSA has an open Engineering Analysis into Full Self-Driving covering roughly 3.2 million vehicles, escalated 18 March 2026, and opened an audit query on 4 September 2026 into whether the Cybercab is validly self-certified without a steering wheel, pedals or mirrors. An adverse finding on either would strike directly at the part of the business carrying the valuation.
- Demand contraction in China and Europe: China sales fell 45% year on year in January 2026 and European registrations declined for thirteen consecutive months, with FY2025 EU share at 8.9% against 18.2% in FY2023. Giga Shanghai is increasingly an export plant rather than a domestic one, with exports at 49% of output.
- Capital intensity outrunning cash generation: guided FY2026 capex above $25bn against trailing operating cash flow of $18,685m means free cash flow can turn negative for extended periods, as it did in Q2 2026 at negative $1,099m. Management has said spending will grow further for two to three years.
- Loss of US demand support: the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expired on 30 September 2025, and Tesla responded by launching lower-priced Standard trims in October 2025. Sustaining volume without the credit means accepting a lower average selling price.
- Tariffs and trade policy: 25% US automotive tariffs raise input costs, Canada's retaliatory 25% tariff forced Tesla to reprice in that market, and Tesla has paused shipping some Cybercab and Semi components from China. These are ongoing margin frictions rather than one-off events.
- Execution slippage on Optimus and new products: Optimus production has already slipped from the timing indicated earlier in 2026 to "later this year." Megapack 3, Megablock and Tesla Semi are all guided to production within 2026, concentrating execution risk into a short window.
- Key-person and governance concentration: the business, the narrative and the compensation structure are all built around one individual whose attention and public profile are contested assets, and whose 2018 and 2025 pay awards have produced years of litigation.
11. Recent Developments
- 04 Sep 2026 — Shares fell about 6% and NHTSA opened an audit query into Cybercab self-certification. The regulator is examining roughly 1,000 vehicles to establish how Tesla determined that a car with no steering wheel, pedals or mirrors complies with federal motor vehicle safety standards. Investors read the accompanying Cybercab update as light on pricing, production cadence and regulatory detail.
- 03 Sep 2026 — Cybercab entered commercial service in Austin. Riders can now hail a driverless trip in a purpose-built two-seat Cybercab within a geofenced area, marking the first commercial deployment of a Tesla vehicle designed without manual controls.
- 22 Jul 2026 — Q2 2026 results: record revenue, compressed operating income. Revenue of $28,236m and deliveries of 480,126 were records, but operating income fell to $398m and free cash flow was negative $1,099m. CFO Vaibhav Taneja guided FY2026 capital expenditure above $25bn and said it would grow further over the next two to three years.
- 21 Apr 2026 — Board determined a Tornetta Decision Event, forfeiting 96 million shares. The reinstatement of the 2018 award triggered a forfeiture provision attached to the 2025 CEO Interim Award.
- 18 Mar 2026 — NHTSA escalated the Full Self-Driving probe to a formal Engineering Analysis. The analysis covers approximately 3.2 million vehicles and cites nine documented crashes including one fatality.
- 22 Jan 2026 — Musk said robotaxis would be widespread across the United States by the end of 2026. The statement set a public timetable against which the Austin, Texas and Florida rollouts are now being measured.
- 16 Jan 2026 — Tesla agreed to invest approximately $2bn in xAI Series E preferred stock. The transaction came with an AI collaboration framework agreement and was expected to close in Q1 2026.
- 19 Dec 2025 — Delaware Supreme Court unanimously reversed the rescission of Musk's 2018 pay package. The award, valued at roughly $139bn at the time of the ruling, was reinstated, and Musk exercised the underlying options in June 2026.
- 06 Nov 2025 — Shareholders approved the 2025 CEO Performance Award with more than 75% in favour. The ten-year, milestone-based award covers approximately 423.7 million shares and includes a one-million-unit Optimus sales milestone.
- 30 Sep 2025 — The $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expired. Tesla launched cheaper Standard Model 3 and Model Y trims at $36,990 and $39,990 the following week in response.
12. Key Dates to Watch
- Expected Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 production and delivery figures, historically released in the first days of the month following quarter end.
- Expected 28 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 earnings and shareholder update. Tesla has not yet issued the confirming 8-K; the date is the one indicated by scheduling services and is consistent with Tesla's recent late-October pattern.
- Expected Jan 2027 — Q4 and FY2026 results, together with the first full-year statement on Cybercab and Optimus volumes.
- TBC — Start of Optimus production at Fremont, guided by management to occur later in 2026.
- TBC — NHTSA determination on the Cybercab self-certification audit query opened 4 September 2026, and on the Full Self-Driving Engineering Analysis opened 18 March 2026.
- TBC — Megapack 3 and Megablock production start at Megafactory Houston, and Tesla Semi production start, both guided to 2026.
- TBD — 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. The 2025 meeting was held on 6 November 2025; no 2026 date has been confirmed in a Tesla filing.
Tesla pays no dividend, so there are no ex-dividend or payment dates to track. Macro releases that move the autos complex are listed on the ChartsView Economic Calendar, and reader discussion of these dates continues in the Forum.
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