SYNT - new LH/downtrend on weekly?

Hi Boxhead,

I was actually out of the office for a lot of Friday and hadn't tracked SYNT often, so was unaware of Fridays action.

I suspected a short term rise, maybe even a double top on the daily - but it looks as if the intraday breached 204.25 (at least on my charts)

RSI is still bearish though - so short trade could still be live if I am honest.

I'll have a closer look tonight after this party, or tomorrow hopefully.

An interesting day you will agree GC25. I was so impressed (and still am) with you view on Synt that I resigned to getting clobbered again today. . But lo and behold up she goes. I am slightly up now whereas this time yesterday I came within a whisker of being stopped out and losing 2% or so. Next week should be revealing. I sometimes think that this is all luck. (only joking Remo - honest !)

Boxhead, as long as you had a strategy in place for your trade, with a good risk to reward, you did the right thing. losses are just the cost of doing business, just like fuel is the cost to travel.

Mine is only one view and the way I see it. It could be wrong. But as long as I have a strategy, and a stop (as you say) I am happy.

Trading isn't really about the forecasting on where the sp is going - its abut responding when it gets to certain technical area's in my mind.

but yea, thank god for stop sometimes

That's a very interesting take on Synt. I read this completely differently. On the daily chart I saw it clear the resistance at about 195/196 and it held as a support at the end of last week and bounced up to around 201 or so. So I bought in at that point and set stops just below what I thought was support. To my pained surprise the stop got hit and I promptly got in again a little lower having convinced myself that this would go back up again. Needless to say it has been hovering around that resistance level and it looks like it is sinking gradually lower int he water all the time.

Having looked at your charts I can see just what you are getting at. An eye opener and not a cheap one at that. Hey ho. I guess tomorrow (Fiday) it will show its true colours. Looks like I will be chalking this one down to experience. Thank god for stops is all I can say. Sigh ....

Spotted this today, think it could be toppy.

Looking at the weekly, there is a 3rd touch on a bearish diverging RSI trendline and a bearish engulfing candle forming this week. Its running along the top line of its bolly too - will look to at least test the 20sma at some point.

Side note - it seemed to double top at approx 255/256, ratraced and formed a lower low to indicate a new weekly down trend - this could potentially be the LH imo





Looking at the daily and closer in on the action we can see it is running along the daily 20sma to which it has just recently touched, therefore I wouldn't necessarily buy here as it skews my risk/reward less favorably.

However, note the blue channel that is potentially in play - combine that with the 3rd touch on the RSI trendline on the weekly, and we have an indication of a high.





Apologies if the chart is a tad messy in your eyes.

My call on this personally would be wait for a better entry, feel wise I think around the 200 mark would be a nice balanced entry - stops above 206+

I would personally take a weight off around 180-182 giving an approx 4-1 (just less) risk to reward on 1st weight only.

Weights after that I would try leave to the lower blue support channel (approx 1 - 1.5 month trade time which I put around the 170 level)

The 3rd weight I would leave and base an exit on the weekly chart - hard to forecast, but perhaps as much as a 4 month trade for a return of 80-100 points (may not be that attractive to some tbh)

Other things to keep an eye out for on the way down is the important sma's on both timeframes, the sp will react to the 20/50/00/200 sma's more often than not imo, so depending on your strategy and risk tolerance, trade accordingly.