Re: US30 (Dow Jones) Daily Technical Analysis & Setups

Monday 26 October 2026
Data: Close 26 Oct 2026 | US30: 52,361.58 | Change: +146.42 (+0.28%) | Range: 52,268-52,625



Market Overview
The Dow won back part of Friday's 653-point drop but lagged the rest of Wall Street: S&P 500 +0.70% to 26,169, Nasdaq +0.82%. Tech led after Anthropic filed publicly for its Nasdaq IPO (ticker ANT), and oil eased at the start of a heavy week. The Dow opened +0.47%, hit 52,625 in the morning and gave back about half of that into the close. Breadth across all US shares was flat (47.7% up, 48.7% down), so the rally was narrow and tech-led.

Inside the Dow: Cisco (+3.5%), Nvidia (+2.4%), Goldman Sachs (+2.0%) and Microsoft (+1.5%) led. Verizon (-3.5%; it raised its subscriber forecast but Q3 revenue missed), Merck (-3.2%; more selling after the Moderna/Merck cancer vaccine Phase 3 data), Disney (-1.9%), UnitedHealth (-1.8%) and Apple (-1.1%) lagged. VIX fell 5.5% to 18.39.

Risk in the background: CNN reports US forces are ready for possible major strikes on Iran "within 96 hours" of an order, and most officials expect a decision after the 3 November mid-terms. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and markets price about a 90% chance of no change this week.

Overall bias: RECOVERING - close above all three EMAs and higher lows since 1 October, but the Dow is below the 22 October high (52,933), and FOMC plus big-tech earnings come within 72 hours.



Trend
EMA stack: Close 52,362 · EMA20 52,069 · EMA50 52,114 · EMA200 50,665
Price is above all three EMAs. The stack is not fully bullish yet: EMA20 (rising, up about 300 points in five sessions) sits about 45 points under the flatter EMA50, so a 20/50 bullish cross is likely within the next few sessions if price holds above 52,100. EMA200 is about 1,700 points below and rising, so the long-term trend is still up.
Structure: The September fall took the index from the 54,749 high to the 50,552 low on 1 October (-7.7%). Since then: higher lows at 50,868 (5 Oct), 50,922 (7 Oct), 51,370 (14 Oct) and 52,060 (23 Oct), with a high at 52,933 (22 Oct). Friday's low held right on the EMA20/EMA50 zone, so the pattern of higher lows is still intact.
Phase: Recovery inside a larger correction. Price is between the 38.2% retracement (52,155) and the 50% retracement (52,650) of the 54,749-50,552 fall. Today's high stopped just below the 50% level.



Indicators
RSI(14): 54.3 (last six sessions 52.0 / 58.8 / 62.6 / 62.8 / 52.5 / 54.3) - neutral to positive. It turned down from about 63 on Friday without reaching overbought. No divergence: the 22 Oct price high and the RSI high came together.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD 129.8 vs signal -7.6 - above the signal and above zero. The histogram is still positive but falling (208 > 164 > 137 over the last three sessions), so upward momentum is slowing, though there is no bearish cross yet.
ATR(14): about 523 points - use it to size stops. A normal daily swing is about 1%.
Volume: The cash index shows no volume. DIA rose only 0.31% and breadth across the market was flat, so participation is weak.



Key Levels
Resistance
R1 52,625-52,650 - today's high plus the 50% retracement. Price was turned back here today.
R2 52,933 - 22 Oct swing high. A daily close above it would confirm the next higher high.
R3 53,000-53,150 - round number plus the 61.8% retracement (53,146). This is the main swing target and the place where sellers could return.

Support
S1 52,060-52,115 - 23 Oct low, EMA20 (52,069) and EMA50 (52,114). This is the key level for the bulls.
S2 51,370-51,600 - 13 and 14 Oct lows (51,593 / 51,370). A close below here breaks the pattern of higher lows.
S3 50,900-50,550 - early-October base and the 1 Oct low, with EMA200 (50,665) inside the zone.

Classic pivots: S2 52,061 · S1 52,211 · P 52,418 · R1 52,568 · R2 52,775
Cam: S4 52,165 · S3 52,263 · S1 52,329 || R1 52,394 · R3 52,460 · R4 52,558
Round numbers: 52,000 · 52,500 · 53,000



Notable Dow Components
Strongest (above all three EMAs):
Microsoft (MSFT) 532.60 +1.54% - Bull (above all). Up ahead of results after Wednesday's close.
Amgen (AMGN) 444.63 +1.22% - Bull (above all), RSI 63.
Travelers (TRV) 400.17 +0.47% - Bull (above all), RSI 69.
Walmart (WMT) 120.29 +0.33% - Bull (above all), RSI 70.
Chevron (CVX) 232.01 -0.51% - Bull (above all), RSI 74 (overbought, slipped as oil eased).

Weakest (below EMAs):
Caterpillar (CAT) 692.13 +0.75% - Bear (below all), RSI 28.7. Still about $83 under its EMA200 after the selling in AI-capex names.
Boeing (BA) 188.31 -0.02% - Bear (below all), RSI 42.
Goldman Sachs (GS) 893.28 +2.01% - Bear (below all) despite today's bounce.
Verizon (VZ) 43.10 -3.49% - Bear (below all), RSI 39. Q3 revenue $34.3bn vs $34.74bn expected; full-year EPS guide raised to $5.04-5.06; $2bn+ AWS fibre deal.
Merck (MRK) 140.61 -3.21% - Bear (below 20/50), still above EMA200.

Also: Nvidia, Amazon and JPMorgan are Bear (below 20/50). American Express and Cisco are Mixed (above EMA20, below EMA50). Home Depot, Honeywell, McDonald's and Nike are Bull (above 20/50) but below EMA200.
Earnings this week: Visa and Coca-Cola (Tue), Microsoft (Wed after close), Amazon (Thu after close). Apple reports Mon 2 Nov after the close.



Trade Setups
Swing 1 - Long on a pullback to the EMA20/50 zone
Buy a test of 52,060-52,115 that holds on the daily close (Friday's low and both EMAs). With the stop 1 ATR below, it sits under the 13 Oct low.
Entry: 52,100 · Stop: 51,550 · T1: 52,930 · T2: 53,150 · R:R: 1.5 / 1.9
Kill: daily close below 51,600, or a hawkish Fed on Wednesday that clearly prepares a December hike.

Swing 2 - Short on a failure at the 22 Oct high
Only if price retests 52,900-52,950 and gets rejected (a daily bearish candle or a lower high under 52,933), for example after FOMC or the Microsoft/Alphabet results.
Entry: 52,900 · Stop: 53,250 · T1: 52,100 · T2: 51,600 · R:R: 2.3 / 3.7
Kill: daily close above 53,150 (61.8% retracement), which would open a run towards 54,000+.

Intraday 1 - Breakout above today's high
A 15-minute close above 52,630 (today's high and the 50% retracement).
Entry: 52,640 · Stop: 52,480 · T1: 52,800 · T2: 52,930 · R:R: 1.0 / 1.8
Kill: price back below 52,560 (R1 pivot / Cam R4) within 30 minutes of entry.

Intraday 2 - Fade the R1 / Cam R4 zone
If the cash open pushes into 52,560-52,630 and stalls (a rejection candle on the 5 or 15 minute chart), sell it back towards the pivot. Pre-FOMC sessions often stay in a range.
Entry: 52,570 · Stop: 52,700 · T1: 52,420 · T2: 52,215 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.7
Kill: 15-minute close above 52,700.



Upcoming Events
Tue 27 Oct: FOMC day 1 (two-day meeting). Earnings from Dow names Visa and Coca-Cola.
Wed 28 Oct: FOMC decision 18:00 UK, press conference 18:30 UK (US clocks change on 1 Nov, so it is 2pm ET). Rates at 3.75-4.00% after September's hike. Markets price about 90% no change; the focus is on any signal of a December hike. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.
Thu 29 Oct: Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE 12:30 UK (one calendar shows PCE on Friday - check). ECB decision this week. Amazon and Intel report after the close.
Geopolitics: US-Iran - US forces are reportedly ready for major strikes within 96 hours of an order. Trump says he is still deciding between a deal and military action. The 3 Nov mid-terms are seen as the informal deadline. Any escalation means higher oil and lower stocks; the Dow's energy names (Chevron) would gain from it.
Also: Brazil election shock (XP -50%, Nu -20%) is so far contained to Latin American assets.



Report: 26 Oct 2026 21:55 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Thursday 22 October 2026
Data: Close 22 Oct 2026 | US30: 52,867.98 | Change: +11.89 (+0.02%) | Range: 52,508-52,928



Market Overview
The Dow finished flat at a fresh one-month closing high while the rest of Wall Street sold off: S&P 500 -1.2%, Nasdaq Composite -2.6%. Meta's bigger AI spending plan (2026 capex $135-145bn) and a 2-for-1 split announcement hit the AI trade, and Tesla swung around after its Q3 beat. Brent pushed to about $112-113 (five-month high) after the US told some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia and talk grew of renewed strikes on Iran after the mid-terms. Bonds were the safe haven: the 10-year yield fell about 11bp to just under 5%, its biggest one-day drop in over two years. Gold -2.7%. Jobless claims came in at 194k (consensus 200k), a three-month low.

Inside the Dow it was a clean defensive rotation: 21 of 30 names rose, led by Procter & Gamble after its earnings beat, while Caterpillar, Nvidia and Amazon (the AI-capex names) did the damage. VIX jumped 14.1% to 19.03 even with the Dow flat - the index is being held up by defensives, not by risk appetite.

Overall bias: BULLISH (cautious) - higher highs and higher lows since the 1 October low, price above all three EMAs, but narrow leadership and a rising VIX.



Trend
EMA stack: Close 52,868 · EMA20 52,019 · EMA50 52,098 · EMA200 50,634
Price is above all three EMAs (Bull - above all). The stack itself is not yet fully aligned: the 20 EMA is still 79 points under the 50 EMA but closing the gap fast - a 20/50 bull cross is likely within the next one to three sessions if price holds above 52,500. The 200 EMA is rising and 2,200 points below.

Structure: Higher highs and higher lows. Lows: 50,552 (1 Oct) - 50,922 (7 Oct) - 51,370 (14 Oct) - 51,869 (19 Oct) - 52,508 (today). Highs: 51,770 - 52,322 - 52,587 - 52,695 - 52,865 - 52,928. Six straight higher daily highs.

Bigger picture: Record high 54,749 (5 Aug). The September sell-off took the index to 50,552 on 1 October (-7.7%). The rebound has retraced just over 50% of that fall (50% = 52,651; 61.8% = 53,146). Price is 3.4% below the record.

Phase: RECOVERING - trend resumption from the October low, now testing the 52,900-53,000 resistance band.



Indicators
RSI(14): 62.8 - bullish, not overbought. RSI made a new rally high with price (62.6 yesterday, 62.8 today), so no bearish divergence on the daily. Momentum is flattening, though: today's higher high came with a near-zero close-to-close gain.
MACD(12,26,9): MACD +125 vs signal -83, histogram +208 and rising for a sixth session. The MACD line crossed back above zero yesterday - bullish momentum confirmed. The signal line is still below zero and would follow within a few sessions on current slope.
ATR(14): 511 points - used for all stops below.
Volume / breadth: Index-level volume is not available for the DJIA; breadth inside the Dow was positive (21 up / 9 down) but the price-weighted index was held flat by Caterpillar (-4.9%) and Goldman Sachs (-1.5%). Cross-index divergence is the warning sign: Dow flat vs Nasdaq -2.6% and VIX +14%.



Key Levels
Resistance
R1 52,930-53,000 - today's high 52,928, round 53,000, Camarilla R3 52,983. Two days of rejection in this band.
R2 53,145-53,190 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug-Oct fall (53,146) plus classic R2 53,188. Key test for the "V" recovery.
R3 53,600-53,750 - early-September swing high 53,752; last shelf before the 54,749 record.

Support
S1 52,640-52,700 - 50% retracement 52,651, Camarilla S4 52,637, 20 Oct high 52,695 (old resistance now support).
S2 52,350-52,510 - today's low 52,508, 50-day SMA 52,358, classic S2 52,349.
S3 51,870-52,100 - EMA20/EMA50 zone 52,019-52,098 and the 19 Oct swing low 51,869. A daily close below 51,850 breaks the higher-low sequence.

Classic pivots: S2 52,349 · S1 52,608 · P 52,768 · R1 53,028 · R2 53,188
Camarilla: Cam: S4 52,637 · S3 52,753 · S1 52,830 || R1 52,906 · R3 52,983 · R4 53,099
Round numbers: 52,500 · 53,000 · 53,500 · 54,000



Notable Dow Components
Top gainers today: PG +5.6% · HD +4.3% · JNJ +3.8% · VZ +3.8% · CRM +3.5%
Top losers today: CAT -4.9% · AMZN -4.6% · NVDA -4.4% · BA -2.5% · MSFT -2.2%

Strongest - Bull (above all three EMAs):
Procter & Gamble (PG) 165.59 - +5.6% on an earnings beat, RSI 74.
Visa (V) 414.34 - RSI 79, the most extended name in the index.
Travelers (TRV) 405.44 - RSI 77, steady trend leader.
Coca-Cola (KO) 95.34 - +2.9%, defensive bid, RSI 74.
UnitedHealth (UNH) 424.98 - +1.9%, above all EMAs with RSI 72.

Weakest:
Caterpillar (CAT) 704.05 - Bear (below all three EMAs), -4.9%, RSI 29 (oversold) - the AI/power-infrastructure unwind; biggest point drag on the index.
Goldman Sachs (GS) 891.30 - Bear (below all three EMAs), RSI 42.
Boeing (BA) 187.55 - Bear (below all three EMAs), RSI 41.
Nvidia (NVDA) 212.21 - Bear (below 20/50), -4.4% on the Meta capex scare, still above the 200 EMA (205.14).
Amazon (AMZN) 250.38 - Bear (below 20/50), -4.6%, holding above the 200 EMA (245.51).

News: IBM (+0.3%) beat and raised its free-cash-flow guide but held its revenue outlook; CEO comments that firms are tightening AI budgets added to the tech pressure. American Express reports before Friday's open.



Trade Setups
Swing 1 - Breakout long above 53,000
Buy only on a daily close above 53,000 (two days of rejection at 52,930 need clearing).
Entry: 53,020 · Stop: 52,500 (1 ATR, below today's low) · T1: 53,700 · T2: 54,500 · R:R: 1.3 / 2.8
Kill: daily close back below 52,650 (50% retracement lost), or VIX closes above 22.

Swing 2 - Pullback long at the EMA zone
For a dip back into the rising 20/50 EMAs.
Entry: 52,100 · Stop: 51,580 (1 ATR, below the 19 Oct low) · T1: 52,930 · T2: 53,600 · R:R: 1.6 / 2.9
Kill: daily close below 51,850 - the higher-low sequence is broken.

Intraday 1 - Buy the 50% retracement / Cam S4
Entry: 52,650 · Stop: 52,480 · T1: 52,900 · T2: 53,030 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.2
Kill: cash open below 52,500, or a soft flash PMI with the 10-year back above 5%.

Intraday 2 - Fade a spike into 53,100-53,190
Only on a rejection candle (15-min) at Cam R4 / 61.8% / R2.
Entry: 53,150 · Stop: 53,330 · T1: 52,930 · T2: 52,770 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.1
Kill: 15-min close above 53,200 with Nasdaq also green - that is real breadth, step aside.



Upcoming Events
Fri 23 Oct
14:45 UK - S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct): services consensus 58.0 (prior 58., manufacturing 55.5 (prior 55.9).
15:00 UK - University of Michigan sentiment, final (Oct): consensus 46.3 (prior 48.1); 1-year inflation expectations 4.7%.
Earnings: American Express (Dow component) before the open; also SLB.

Next week
FOMC 27-28 Oct - statement Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UK (UK clocks go back on Sunday), Chair Warsh press conference 18:30 UK. Futures lean towards a hold after September's hike.
Heavy mega-cap earnings season continues - check confirmed dates for MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, CAT, MRK, CVX before holding swings into them.

Geopolitics / macro
Saudi Arabia: US ordered some diplomats out; Brent near $112-113, up more than 50% since the Iran war began in February. Reports of renewed US/Israeli action against Iran after the 3 Nov mid-terms - an oil spike is the main downside risk to the Dow's defensive bid. The 10-year back under 5% is the support for the rally; a move back above 5% would hurt.



Report: 22 Oct 2026 20:50 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Thursday 15 October 2026
Data: Close 15 Oct 2026 | US30: 52,183 | Change: +557 (+1.08%) | Range: 51,686-52,255



Market Overview
The Dow led Wall Street higher as money rotated out of AI/semiconductor names and into healthcare, consumer and financial stocks. US30 closed at 52,183, up 557 points (+1.08%), well ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.33%) and the Nasdaq (+0.1%). The Russell 2000 added 1.4%.

Drivers:
- Hot inflation again: September PPI +1.3% m/m (consensus +0.5%) and +6.3% y/y, the biggest annual rise since 2022; core PPI +0.7% m/m. This follows Wednesday's hot CPI.
- Despite the data, Treasury yields fell sharply: the 10-year dropped about 10-13 bps to roughly 5.05-5.09%, after topping 5.32% on Wednesday morning. Lower yields helped rate-sensitive and defensive sectors.
- Retail sales +0.8% m/m (consensus +0.3%), but the control group only +0.1%. Jobless claims 199K. Empire State +25.5 (strong), Philly Fed 20.9 (miss).
- Healthcare (XLV +2.25%) hit a record high; financials were lifted by bank earnings (PNC, USB, BNY, Schwab today; JPM, GS, WFC, C earlier in the week).
- Semiconductors fell for an 8th straight session (SOX down about 10% month-to-date), which held back the Nasdaq.
- VIX hit a two-week high intraday and then eased, closing around 16.5.

Overall bias: RECOVERING - cautiously BULLISH while above 51,686. The index is testing the 52,320 ceiling, which has capped it twice.



Trend
EMA stack (daily): EMA20 51,709 · EMA50 52,018 · EMA200 50,461
- Close 52,183 is above all three EMAs: Bull (above all).
- The stack is not fully aligned yet: EMA20 is still below EMA50, and EMA50 is still sloping down slightly (52,064 five sessions ago). A bullish 20/50 cross would need a few more closes above 52,000.
- Price is about 3.4% above the EMA200, so the long-term uptrend is intact.

Market structure:
- Bigger picture: a correction from the 5 Aug all-time high of 54,749 to the 1 Oct low of 50,552 (-7.7%), with a series of lower highs (54,749 > 53,825 > 53,752 > 52,756 > 52,324).
- Since 1 Oct: higher lows at 50,552, 50,868, 50,922 and 51,370 (14 Oct), and higher highs at 51,677 and 52,322 (13 Oct).
- Phase: RECOVERING / testing a breakout. A daily close above 52,330 would break the lower-high sequence from August for the first time.



Indicators
RSI(14): 55.2 - neutral-bullish. Momentum has recovered from the early-October lows without being stretched. No bearish divergence: RSI is rising with price.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD -159 · Signal -294 · Histogram +136. A bullish crossover is in place below the zero line and the histogram is positive. MACD is still below zero, so this is a recovery signal rather than a confirmed new uptrend.
ATR(14): about 503 points. Today's 569-point range was slightly above average.
Breadth: Broad advance: 20 of the 28 Dow components we checked rose, and small caps (+1.4%) beat the index.
Volume: Index volume is not reported for US30. Breadth and the small-cap gain point to real participation rather than a narrow move.



Key Levels
Resistance:
- R1 52,320-52,330 - double top (22 Sep high 52,324, 13 Oct high 52,322). This is the key line.
- R2 52,756 - 14 Sep swing high, the last lower high before the 1 Oct low.
- R3 53,000 / 53,250 - round number, then halfway back to the August highs (53,715-53,825).

Support:
- S1 52,000-52,020 - EMA50 plus the round number.
- S2 51,686-51,709 - today's low and EMA20.
- S3 51,370 - 14 Oct higher low. Below that 50,922-50,552 (October base) and the EMA200 at 50,461.

Classic pivots (next session): S2 51,473 · S1 51,828 · P 52,042 · R1 52,397 · R2 52,611
Camarilla: Cam: S4 51,870 · S3 52,027 · S1 52,131 || R1 52,235 · R3 52,340 · R4 52,496
Round numbers: 51,500 · 52,000 · 52,500 · 53,000



Notable Dow Components
Strongest (above all three EMAs):
- Salesforce (CRM) +4.6% - Bull (above all), RSI 61.5
- Sherwin-Williams (SHW) +3.8% - Bull (above all), helped by lower yields and a homebuilder bounce
- UnitedHealth (UNH) +2.8% - Bull (above all), RSI 68; healthcare at record highs
- Visa (V) +2.1% - Bull (above all), RSI 72 (stretched)
- Amgen (AMGN) +1.9% and Travelers (TRV) +1.6% - Bull (above all)

Weakest (below EMAs):
- Caterpillar (CAT) -1.8% - Bear (below all), RSI 31.5; hit with the AI-power and data-centre names
- Cisco (CSCO) -3.3% - Bear (below 20/50), the worst Dow performer today
- Nvidia (NVDA) -1.8% - Bear (below 20/50); semis down 8 sessions in a row
- Goldman Sachs (GS) +1.4%, Boeing (BA) +2.2% - bounced today but still Bear (below all)
- Verizon (VZ) -0.1% - Bear (below all)

Also notable: Nike (NKE) was the top Dow gainer, up 5.2%, but is above the EMA20 only (Mixed: above 20, below 50 and 200). Walmart was upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank. JPMorgan (+0.1%) and Johnson & Johnson (-0.3%) remain Bear (below 20/50).



Trade Setups
Swing Long - Pullback to EMA50
Buy a dip into the 52,000-52,050 zone (EMA50, Cam S3, pivot), not a chase at the highs.
Entry: 52,040 · Stop: 51,640 · T1: 52,750 · T2: 53,250 · R:R: 1.8 / 3.0
Stop is about 0.8 ATR, below today's low and the EMA20.
Kill: daily close below 51,686.

Swing Short - Failed breakout at the double top
Only if price pushes above 52,330 and then fails (hourly close back below 52,250).
Entry: 52,300 · Stop: 52,650 · T1: 51,700 · T2: 51,380 · R:R: 1.7 / 2.6
Stop is about 0.7 ATR.
Kill: daily close above 52,400 (pivot R1). That would confirm the breakout and cancel the short.

Intraday Long - Camarilla R3 breakout
Trigger: a 15-minute close above 52,340 (Cam R3, also the top of the double top).
Entry: 52,350 · Stop: 52,180 · T1: 52,610 · T2: 52,756 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.4
Kill: 15-minute close back below 52,235 (Cam R1).

Intraday Short - Loss of the pivot
Trigger: a 15-minute close below 52,020 (pivot 52,042 / Cam S3 52,027 lost).
Entry: 52,000 · Stop: 52,160 · T1: 51,828 · T2: 51,700 · R:R: 1.1 / 1.9
Kill: 15-minute reclaim of 52,131 (Cam S1).



Upcoming Events
- Fri 16 Oct, 08:30 ET (13:30 UK): September import and export prices. After hot CPI and PPI, another hot print would add to rate-hike talk.
- Fri 16 Oct, 09:15 ET (14:15 UK): September industrial production and capacity utilisation.
- Fri 16 Oct: monthly options expiry. Expect pinning and choppy flows near round numbers (52,000 / 52,500).
- Fed: One calendar lists Fed Chair Warsh speaking late Thursday. Markets see roughly a coin flip on a hike at the 28 Oct FOMC by some measures, while other pricing still puts about 71% on no change. Any Fed comment on PPI could move yields and the Dow.
- Earnings: Q3 season continues next week. Watch the remaining Dow financials and industrials, and any read-across from AI/semis.
- Geopolitics: US-Iran conflict (reports of new strike plans) and attacks on shipping near the Red Sea. WTI rose 3% to $97.97, Brent $105.92. An oil spike would revive inflation and yield worries.
- Bonds: The 10-year yield near 5.05-5.09% is the swing factor. A move back above 5.30% would likely pressure equities again.



Report: 15 Oct 2026 20:30 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Tuesday 13 October 2026
Data: Close 13 Oct 2026 | US30: 51,670.10 | Change: -180.45 (-0.35%) | Range: 51,593-52,322



Market Overview
The Dow opened higher at 52,098 on early bank-earnings optimism (Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth beats), pushed to 52,322 in the first hour, then sold off for the rest of the session to close at 51,670.10, near the low of the day. That is a 652-point reversal from the high. The Dow led the US indices lower (S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.15%, Russell 2000 -0.30%).

Drivers:
- Johnson & Johnson -5.7%: results in line and guidance raised, but MedTech missed and a large talc-litigation charge cut net profit 96% year on year.
- Caterpillar -3.3%: the heaviest point drag in a price-weighted index.
- Mixed bank results: JPMorgan -0.9% after an EPS miss ($5.57 v $5.90 expected); Goldman Sachs beat strongly ($17.01 v $13.02, equities revenue +72%) but faded to -0.2%. UnitedHealth beat and raised guidance, but gave back a +5% pre-market jump to close -0.2%.
- Chip weakness continued (China's CXMT DRAM progress, Broadcom CEO "casino" comments), although Nvidia held +1.0%.
- Energy firm (Chevron +1.3%) even though oil eased about 2% (WTI ~$91.8, Brent ~$104.4) after the US relaxed curbs on Russian diesel.
- VIX 15.27 (+0.4%): calm, and below all three of its own EMAs, so no fear in the options market.

Overall bias: MIXED / leaning BEARISH short term — a bearish engulfing reversal at resistance, the day before CPI.



Trend
EMA stack: EMA20 51,661.94 · EMA50 52,026.02 · EMA200 50,516.54
Classification: Mixed — close ABOVE EMA20 (by just 8 pts), BELOW EMA50 (-356 pts), ABOVE EMA200 (+1,154 pts).
The EMA20 is flat (51,661 v 51,661 yesterday) and the EMA50 is still falling (52,041 -> 52,026). The 20 is still below the 50, which is a bearish short-term alignment. The EMA200 is rising, so the long-term uptrend is intact.

Market structure: Corrective downtrend from the 5 Aug record (close 54,354, intraday 54,749): lower highs at 53,691 (3 Sep) and 52,324 (22 Sep), and a swing low of 50,552 on 1 Oct (-7.7% from the intraday high). Since then, a run of higher lows (50,868 / 50,922 / 50,944 / 51,264 / 51,724). Today was the first test of the 22 Sep lower high (52,324). It failed at 52,322 and printed the first lower low (51,593) of the recovery.
Phase: Consolidation / attempted recovery inside a corrective downtrend. Today's failed breakout puts the recovery on hold.



Indicators
RSI(14): 48.1 (from 50.6) — slipped back below 50, into mildly bearish momentum. No divergence: RSI bottomed at 35.1 on 30 Sep, alongside the closing low, and recovered to 50.6 on Monday before today's rejection.
MACD(12,26,9): MACD -253.8 · Signal -354.1 · Histogram +100.3 — RECOVERING. Bullish signal-line crossover on 6 Oct, histogram still expanding (+90.6 -> +100.3), but both lines are below zero. This is a bear-recovering reading, not a bullish trend.
ATR(14): ~483 pts — use this for stop sizing.
Volume: No volume on the cash index. Breadth inside the Dow is split: 13 of 30 components are above all three EMAs, 9 are below all three.
Candle: Bearish engulfing / outside-down day. It opened above Monday's high, closed below Monday's open and low, and was rejected exactly at the 22 Sep swing high. That is a meaningful warning at resistance.



Key Levels
Resistance:
R1 51,860-51,870 — classic pivot, Camarilla R3 and Monday's close (moderate)
R2 52,026-52,100 — EMA50 and today's open (strong)
R3 52,322-52,324 — today's high and the 22 Sep lower high (strong; a daily close above it is the bull trigger)

Support:
S1 51,593-51,600 — today's low and Camarilla S1 (minor)
S2 51,264-51,270 — 9 Oct higher low and Camarilla S4 (moderate)
S3 50,870-50,950 — 30 Sep to 8 Oct base (strong); below that, the 50,552 swing low and EMA200 at 50,517 (major)

Classic pivots (for 14 Oct): S2 51,133 · S1 51,401 · P 51,862 · R1 52,131 · R2 52,591
Camarilla: Cam: S4 51,269 · S3 51,470 · S1 51,603 || R1 51,737 · R3 51,871 · R4 52,071
Round numbers: 51,500 · 52,000 · 51,000 · 50,000



Notable Dow Components
Strongest (Bull — above EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200):
Visa (V) 396.06 +1.74% · Salesforce (CRM) 238.01 +1.75% · Chevron (CVX) 217.73 +1.27% · Microsoft (MSFT) 543.45 +0.43% · Travelers (TRV) 373.28 +0.43%
Nvidia (NVDA) 228.52 +0.97% is also above all three, but only 0.06 above its EMA20.

Weakest:
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 248.61 -5.73% — Bear (below 20/50); its EMA200 at 241.65 is the next floor
Caterpillar (CAT) 772.78 -3.33% — Bear (below all)
Merck (MRK) 141.98 -2.39% — Bear (below 20/50)
Boeing (BA) 186.49 -1.59% — Bear (below all)
Honeywell (HON) 207.29 -1.12% — Bear (below all)

Banks: Goldman Sachs (GS) 891.91 is Bear (below all) despite its earnings beat. JPMorgan (JPM) 331.43 is Bear (below 20/50). Both are still under pressure, so the earnings season has not turned the sector yet.
Earnings and news: UNH 377.76 is Mixed (above 20 and 200, below 50) after its beat. Verizon (VZ) +1.75% bounced but is still below all its EMAs.



Trade Setups
Swing 1 — Short the retest of the EMA50 / pivot zone (primary)
Today's bearish engulfing at the 52,324 lower high, below a falling EMA50, favours selling a bounce rather than chasing lower.
Entry: 51,950 · Stop: 52,380 · T1: 51,270 · T2: 50,900 · R:R: 1:1.6 / 1:2.4
Kill: a daily close above 52,330 (it would mean a higher high, and the downtrend structure is broken). Stop = 0.9x ATR above entry, beyond today's high.

Swing 2 — Buy the strong support base (alternative, half size)
If CPI knocks the index back into the 30 Sep to 8 Oct base, the higher-low structure and the rising EMA200 below it give a defined-risk long.
Entry: 50,950 · Stop: 50,480 · T1: 51,860 · T2: 52,320 · R:R: 1:1.9 / 1:2.9
Kill: a daily close below the EMA200 at 50,517 (below the 50,552 swing low, the correction resumes).

Intraday 1 — Camarilla R3 fade
The Cam S3-R3 band (401 pts) is narrower than ATR (483), so range trades suit a normal session. R3 also lines up with the classic pivot (51,862).
Entry: 51,870 · Stop: 52,090 · T1: 51,470 · T2: 51,270 · R:R: 1:1.8 / 1:2.7
Kill: a 15m close above Cam R4 at 52,071 — that makes it a trend day up, so stand aside.

Intraday 2 — Camarilla S4 breakdown
If CPI comes in hot, a break of S4 makes a trend day down likely, in line with today's reversal.
Entry: 51,250 (after a 15m close below 51,269) · Stop: 51,480 · T1: 50,920 · T2: 50,600 · R:R: 1:1.4 / 1:2.8
Kill: price recovers above Cam S3 at 51,470. Note that T1 is below the 1:1.5 minimum, so take partial profit there and trail the rest towards T2.

Risk note: CPI is at 13:30 UK. Do not open intraday positions in the 15 minutes before the release. Expect a range of ATR or more on the day.



Upcoming Events
Wed 14 Oct: US CPI for September at 13:30 UK. Consensus (TD calendar, 9 Oct): headline +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y (prior 3.4%); core +0.2% m/m. This is the key event of the week, with the Fed having raised rates in September and bond yields elevated. Also Q3 results from Bank of America before the open, and Morgan Stanley expected before the open (date not yet confirmed).
Thu 15 Oct: Retail sales, PPI and weekly jobless claims, all at 13:30 UK.
Fed speakers: none confirmed for 14-15 Oct at the time of writing. Waller, Barkin, Collins and Hammack spoke on 12-13 Oct.
Geopolitics: Houthi-Saudi escalation, with Riyadh airport closed until Saturday and the US considering joining strikes. Reports say Iran is fortifying its nuclear sites. Trump has said there will be no US strike on Iran before the 3 Nov midterms. Any oil spike is a risk for the Dow's industrials and a support for its energy names.



Report: 13 Oct 2026 20:45 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Monday 5 October 2026
Data: Close 5 Oct 2026 | US30: 51,268 | Change: +91 (+0.18%) | Range: 50,863-51,405



Market Overview
The Dow added a second small gain, closing at 51,268 (+91 pts / +0.18%), but lagged the rest of the market badly: the Nasdaq (+1.05%) and Nasdaq-100 both closed at record highs and the S&P 500 rose 0.66%. The index dropped to 50,863 in the morning - about 320 pts above last Wednesday's 50,547 low - as the 10Y Treasury yield climbed to 5.315% (+3.8 bp, new 52-week high; 30Y 5.67%). The trigger was the ISM services report: headline 54.9 (consensus 55.0, prior 55.4), but the prices index jumped to 74.0, its highest since July 2022.
Dip buyers lifted the Dow ~400 pts off the low into the close, led by Visa, Nvidia and Microsoft, while Goldman Sachs, Merck and Salesforce held it back. Friday's soft payrolls (+29K, unemployment 4.2%) cooled October hike talk, but the long end of the bond market keeps selling off. WTI ~$89, Brent ~$101. VIX 15.5 (+0.2).
Overall bias: BEARISH short term (correction inside a longer-term uptrend) - today's long lower wick off support is an early RECOVERING hint, but it needs a daily close above 51,500 and then 51,875 to count.



Trend
EMA stack (daily): EMA20 51,750 · EMA50 52,155 · EMA200 50,388
Close 51,268 is below the 20 and 50 but above the 200 = Bear (below 20/50). EMA20 is under EMA50 and both are still falling (EMA20 52,154 five sessions ago, EMA50 52,383). The 200 is still rising (50,350 a week ago) and sits 880 pts below.
Structure: LH/LL - record high 54,744 (5 Aug); lower highs 53,747 (3 Sep), 52,751 (14 Sep), 52,319 (21 Sep), 51,875 (25 Sep) and 51,405 today; lower lows 51,187 (16 Sep), 51,124 (24 Sep), 50,547 (1 Oct). Today's 50,863 low held above 1 Oct - a possible first higher low, not confirmed. The index is 6.4% off its record.
Phase: Corrective pullback within a primary uptrend, now basing in a 50,547-51,405 range for four sessions.



Indicators
RSI(14): 40.8 - BEARISH side of 50, but turning up from 35.1 (30 Sep). Bullish divergence in place: the close made a lower low (50,906 on 30 Sep vs 51,462 on 16 Sep) while RSI held a matching-to-higher low (35.1-35.5 vs 35.0).
MACD (12,26,9): -460 vs signal -422 - line below signal and both below zero. Histogram has narrowed for two sessions (-86.7 / -64.5 / -37.6) - downside momentum is fading fast; a bullish signal-line cross is possible within 2-3 sessions if price holds above 51,000.
Volume: 452M vs 20-day average 444M (+2%) - normal turnover; no capitulation and no buying thrust.
ATR(14): ~499 pts - used for swing stops below.



Key Levels
Resistance
R1 51,405-51,495 - today's high 51,405, Cam R3 51,417 and classic R1 51,494. First lid; a close above it breaks the four-day range.
R2 51,750-51,875 - falling EMA20 (51,750) and the 25 Sep lower high (51,875). Reclaiming this breaks the LH/LL sequence.
R3 52,155-52,320 - EMA50 (52,155) and the 21 Sep high (52,319). Major supply zone.
Support
S1 50,860-50,970 - today's low 50,863, classic S1 50,952 and Cam S4 50,970.
S2 50,547 - 1 Oct swing low (60-day low). A close below resumes the LL sequence.
S3 50,000-50,390 - rising EMA200 (50,388) and the 50,000 round number. Deeper backstop: 49,909 (10 Jun low).
Classic pivots: S2 50,637 · S1 50,952 · P 51,179 · R1 51,494 · R2 51,721
Cam: S4 50,970 · S3 51,119 · S1 51,218 || R1 51,318 · R3 51,417 · R4 51,566
Round numbers: 50,000 · 50,500 · 51,000 · 51,500 · 52,000



Notable Dow Components
Breadth: 16 up, 13 down, 1 flat. EMA status (close vs 20/50/200): 6 Bull (above all), 5 Mixed, 7 Bear (below 20/50), 12 Bear (below all) - a narrow, tech-and-payments-led tape.
Strongest (above all three EMAs):
Visa (V) 369.71, +2.5% - top Dow gainer, payments bid.
Nvidia (NVDA) 238.90, +2.1% - Foxconn Q3 sales +47% (NT$3.03 trillion) beat estimates, more evidence of AI spending.
Microsoft (MSFT) 525.18, +1.5% - megacap tech carried the Nasdaq to records.
Cisco (CSCO) 112.82, +0.6% · Caterpillar (CAT) 848.14, +0.3% · Apple (AAPL) 332.89, -0.2% (still above all three).
Weakest (below all three EMAs):
Goldman Sachs (GS) 893.46, -1.0% - well under its EMA200 (947); the biggest points drag among the weak names given its share price.
Home Depot (HD) 281.15, -0.6% - EMA200 336.55; housing names hit again by yields (homebuilders -1.1%).
Nike (NKE) 33.96, +0.3% - S&P cut its credit rating to A from A+ (negative outlook) on a slower turnaround and weak China sales.
IBM (IBM) 221.58, -0.5% · Boeing (BA) 192.72, -0.4% · McDonald's (MCD) 233.04.
Session losers: Merck (MRK) -3.3% to 139.54, Salesforce (CRM) -2.1%, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -1.2%.



Trade Setups
Swing 1 - Buy the higher-low test at S1 (counter-trend, divergence-backed)
Entry: 50,980 (buy limit) · Stop: 50,480 (1 ATR, below the 1 Oct low) · T1: 51,750 · T2: 52,150 · R:R: 1.5 / 2.3
Kill: Daily close below 50,547 (lower low confirmed), or the 10Y breaks above 5.40% before entry - stand aside.

Swing 2 - Sell the rally into EMA20 / 25 Sep high (trend-following)
Entry: 51,800 (sell limit) · Stop: 52,200 (above EMA50, ~0.8 ATR) · T1: 51,000 · T2: 50,550 · R:R: 2.0 / 3.1
Kill: Daily close above 52,155 (EMA50 reclaimed) - structure flips to NEUTRAL; or dovish FOMC minutes pull the 10Y back below 5.20%.

Intraday 1 - Range breakout long above Cam R3
Entry: 51,425 (15m close above 51,417) · Stop: 51,310 (below Cam R1) · T1: 51,566 · T2: 51,720 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.6
Kill: Price slips back below 51,405 (today's high) within 30 minutes of the trigger - failed breakout, flatten.

Intraday 2 - Breakdown short below Cam S3
Entry: 51,110 (15m close below 51,119) · Stop: 51,230 (above Cam S1) · T1: 50,970 · T2: 50,865 · R:R: 1.2 / 2.0
Kill: A 15m close back above the 51,179 pivot - flatten.



Upcoming Events (next 48h)
Tue 6 Oct (ET):
08:30 - Trade balance (Aug)
Evening - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
Wed 7 Oct (ET):
14:00 - FOMC minutes (15-16 Sep meeting, when the Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00%) - the key event of the week. Hawkish inflation language plus ISM prices at a 4-year high would put October-hike pricing back on the table.
15:00 - Consumer credit (Aug)
Later this week: Thu jobless claims; Fri UMich sentiment (prelim Oct), factory orders, Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid.
Rates: 10Y 5.315%, 20Y 5.72%, 30Y 5.67% - all 52-week highs; 2s10s steepened to ~49 bp. Still the single biggest driver for the Dow's cyclicals, financials and housing names.
Earnings: PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss report this week. No Dow component reports in the next 48h.
Geopolitics: Iran war - Trump says it will be "over soon", Tehran says there is "no military solution"; Aramco's CEO warns oil stockpiles are "scarily thin" until Hormuz fully reopens. Yemen's government has launched an offensive on Houthi-held Sanaa near Bab al-Mandeb - shipping-lane headline risk.



Summary
US30 is still in a BEARISH short-term correction: below the 20/50 EMAs, LH/LL structure intact and MACD negative. But the evidence for a base is building - a higher-low attempt at 50,863, a long lower wick, RSI divergence and a fast-shrinking MACD histogram - with the rising 200 EMA (~50,390) underneath. Plan: buy only at 50,980 with a stop under 50,547, or fade 51,750-51,875 while below 52,155. A daily close above 51,875 would flip us to NEUTRAL; Wednesday's FOMC minutes and the 10Y yield are the swing factors.

Report: 5 Oct 2026 20:55 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.

Thursday 24 September 2026
Data: Close 24 Sep 2026 | US30: 51,355 | Change: -162 (-0.31%) | Range: 51,129-51,491



Market Overview
The Dow slipped for a third straight session, closing at 51,355 (-162 pts / -0.31%) after printing a fresh one-month low at 51,129 early in the session. The open was weak (around -217 pts) as the bond rout extended: the 10Y Treasury pushed through 5.19% (highest since 2007) and the 30Y hit 5.48% (highest since 2004), with Wednesday's hot S&P Global PMI lifting October Fed-hike odds towards ~70%. Crude added to the pressure (Brent ~$107, WTI ~$95).
The index clawed back ~225 pts off the low after Reuters reported US and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and dip-buyers pulled the S&P 500 back to flat and the Nasdaq into the green. The Dow lagged thanks to rate-sensitive and cyclical names. VIX firmed to ~15.2 (+0.97).
Overall bias: BEARISH short term (correction inside a longer-term uptrend) - RECOVERING only on a daily close back above 51,900.



Trend
EMA stack (daily): EMA20 52,272 · EMA50 52,449 · EMA200 50,415
Close 51,355 is below the 20 and 50 but above the 200 = Bear (below 20/50). EMA20 has crossed under EMA50 - the short-term stack is now bearish, while the 200 is still rising well beneath.
Structure: LH/LL - ATH close 54,354 (5 Aug), lower high 53,752 (3 Sep), lower lows at 51,192 (16 Sep) and now 51,129 (today). The index is 5.5% off its record.
Phase: Corrective pullback within a primary uptrend. Price is now roughly midway between the broken 20/50 cluster (~52,300-52,450) and the 200 EMA (~50,400).



Indicators
RSI(14): 36.9 - BEARISH momentum but not oversold. Note a tentative bullish divergence: price made a lower low (51,129 vs 51,192 on 16 Sep) while RSI made a higher low (36.9 vs 35.0). Needs a close above 51,900 to confirm.
MACD (12,26,9): -416 vs signal -302 - line below signal and both below zero. Histogram -114.5, roughly flat over the last three sessions (-112 / -112 / -115) after narrowing from -185 - downside momentum is persistent but no longer accelerating.
Volume: Index volume not reported on the cash DJI feed. Breadth was mixed - S&P flat, Nasdaq green, Russell 2000 -0.1% - so the Dow's underperformance was sector-specific (industrials, financials, home improvement) rather than broad liquidation.
ATR(14): ~455 pts - used for stops below.



Key Levels
Resistance
R1 51,500-51,520 - prior close 51,517, today's high 51,491 and classic R1 51,521. First lid.
R2 51,850-51,940 - 22-23 Sep highs / 17 Sep high. Reclaiming this breaks the LH/LL sequence.
R3 52,270-52,450 - EMA20 / EMA50 cluster. Major supply zone.
Support
S1 51,130-51,160 - today's low 51,129 / classic S1 51,159 / Cam S4 51,156.
S2 50,960-51,000 - classic S2 50,963 and the 51,000 round number.
S3 50,400-50,450 - rising EMA200 (50,415). Deeper backstop: 49,914 (10 Jun low) and 50,000.
Classic pivots: S2 50,963 · S1 51,159 · P 51,325 · R1 51,521 · R2 51,687
Cam: S4 51,156 · S3 51,256 · S1 51,322 || R1 51,388 · R3 51,455 · R4 51,554
Round numbers: 50,000 · 50,500 · 51,000 · 51,500 · 52,000



Notable Dow Components
Relative strength (session):
Salesforce (CRM) +1.8% to +2.3% - led the index all day.
Walt Disney (DIS) +1.9% early - comm services was the top S&P sector (+1.1%).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up to +1.8% - defensive healthcare bid.
Visa (V) +1.0% - payments held up despite financials' weakness.
Relative weakness (session):
Home Depot (HD) around -2.8% - 30Y mortgage rate back above 7% hits housing names.
Caterpillar (CAT) -1.8% - heaviest points drag given its ~$800 share price.
Boeing (BA) -1.6% and Goldman Sachs (GS) -1.5% - cyclicals and high-priced financials weighed.
Walmart (WMT) -1.6%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) -1.0% - AI names soft after Oracle's force majeure notice on its New Mexico data centre (ORCL -5%, not a Dow member).
News flow: Trump-Xi summit in Washington (trade truce extended to January); no US-China AI guardrails expected. Mover figures are intraday reads - EMA status per component not updated this run.



Trade Setups
Swing 1 - Sell the rally into broken support (primary)
Entry: 51,880 (sell limit) · Stop: 52,330 (~1 ATR, above EMA20) · T1: 51,130 · T2: 50,450 · R:R: 1.7 / 3.2
Kill: Daily close above 52,300 (EMA20 reclaimed) or a confirmed Hormuz deal that sends yields sharply lower - stand aside.

Swing 2 - Buy the EMA200 test (counter-trend)
Entry: 50,450 (buy limit) · Stop: 49,880 (below 10 Jun low 49,914) · T1: 51,350 · T2: 51,900 · R:R: 1.6 / 2.5
Kill: Daily close below 49,900, or the 10Y breaks above 5.30% before entry - the trend-follower's case strengthens and the 200 is unlikely to hold.

Intraday 1 - Breakdown short below today's low
Entry: 51,110 (15m close below 51,129) · Stop: 51,340 (back above pivot) · T1: 50,900 · T2: 50,680 · R:R: 0.9 / 1.9
Kill: Price recovers above 51,256 (Cam S3) within 30 minutes of the trigger - failed breakdown, flatten.

Intraday 2 - Camarilla R4 breakout long
Entry: 51,570 (15m close above Cam R4 51,554) · Stop: 51,340 · T1: 51,850 · T2: 52,000 · R:R: 1.2 / 1.9
Kill: Falls back below 51,455 (Cam R3), or hot durable goods / UMich inflation expectations push the 10Y higher.



Upcoming Events (next 48h)
Fri 25 Sep (ET):
05:15 - NY Fed President John Williams speaks
08:30 - Durable goods orders (Aug)
10:00 - UMich consumer sentiment, final (Sep) - prelim 47.8, second-lowest on record; 1Y inflation expectations 4.6%. A hot expectations print feeds October-hike pricing.
14:00 - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks
Rates: 10Y 5.19% / 30Y 5.48% - the single biggest driver right now. Any follow-through above 5.25% on the 10Y is a headwind for the Dow's cyclicals and financials.
Geopolitics: US-Iran phased Hormuz deal talks (headline risk both ways); Trump-Xi summit continues. Iran has warned of a "new front" in the Red Sea if US strikes resume.
Earnings: No Dow component reports scheduled for Friday; Nike (fiscal Q1) typically reports around month-end - watch for the date.



Summary
US30 is in a BEARISH short-term correction: below the 20/50 EMAs, LH/LL structure intact and MACD negative, but the 200 EMA (~50,400) is still rising underneath and RSI is hinting at divergence. Plan: fade rallies into 51,850-51,940 while below 52,300; look for a reaction long only at the 200 EMA. A daily close above 51,940 would flip us to NEUTRAL.

Report: 24 Sep 2026 20:45 GMT · Not financial advice. Always DYOR. Capital at risk.