Afren

Hi All,

I hold afren at around 46p average, around 2k £.

But then I bought few..at around 5p, around 7K £ and sold as soon as it hit 14p last time.. as it was support from long back.. it went to high of 18p and then back towards sub 5p after the bid offer was rejected.

I bought in again another 7k £ at 5.1p, again, and holding it now.. to sell at 10p today? or.. may be hold bit more.. I know its risky one.. but...

May b will sell if it hits 14p again... or may hold...

Good luck to all.
ta
G

not sure if this is the best way to respond .....

extraction and production costs are known, though i don't recollect them
assuredly they are higher than the present level whether based on Brent or WTL

if i read you correctly, you side with my view that PIs will end up with zilch, though there may well be good profits for the very brave and professional traders

Whether any finance deal with bondholders and any re-financing gives the shareholders anything depends on two things:

a)B/E cost of production (no one seems to know this)
b) a placement price (no one knows this)

The only re-financing I can imagine will be equity, depending on a) of course (but no one seems to know this) No banks would touch it (lots of defaults for Nigerian Banks) and I can't imagine the bondholders throwing more good money away

The bullish engulfing patter at yesterdays close gave the rise today, but it is based on hype and gambling.

cynic wrote: as i'm a complete newbie, you will not know me

anyway, i reckon AFR is a dead duck as far as PIs are concerned
as far as i can see, there are 3 possibilities

1) a deal will be done and the PIs will get something out of it - i don't believe that
2) a deal will be done but the PIs will get zilch - the most likely outcome imo
3) no deal will be done, in which no one gets anything - the least likely imo

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i should have added that, as far as i can see, there are a lot of professional (computer) traders playing with this for quick profits in either direction, but far too dangerous waters for me

I don't disagree that Afren is in a dire position at this present moment in time but Im of the opinion that a refinancing deal will be achieved ,,, I will trade the stock from a technical point of view ie,, close above 10.25 would be an early entry point for the brave and a close above 15.00 for the 123 low breakout with tight stops,,,

obviously that influenced it but as far as i can see, AFR remains completely rudderless and mired in huge debt
i also suspect there would be yet more skeletons in the cupboard if anyone wanted to bother to dig

if you disagree with my view - more than welcome of course - tell me/us why anyone would want to buy the company with its debt and still leave PIs with even a crumb?

for all that, i'm still not nearly brave enough to go short!

Hi cynic ,,,, just interested to know if your opinion re Afrens future is based having also read last Fridays RNS re the seplat offer rejection ,,,,