Lloyds

Hi SRB, you asked about LLOY in the chat today. My view is that it looked weak today with almost a bearish engulfing candle right at that key resistance level. There are also bearish divergences in RSI, MACD and OBV which may, or may not, play out.

I have the long sideways move as a possible wave 4 of the final 5th wave up of the sequence from 21.637p. Here's the chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...LOYdaily02_07_13.gif

I must confess to a little uncertainty here though as the original bounce up from 2009 lows up to c. 75p ought to have been primary wave 1 up but the sequence from 21.637 looks complete and is yet to achieve those levels. Remember, in the last post WaveSurfer thought it should reach 77/81p I think so I may be wrong here. I'd still be reluctant to get long based on the above chart though.

77/81p

on a w1-3 relationship = ~55x.618 = 35pips
w5 = 35+46 = 81p

rgds WS

Hi SRB,

There's no rule about the length of wave 5 as long as it doesn't make wave 3 the shortest which it can't in this case anyway.

The textbook perfect wave 5 would be roughly equal to wave 1 and for LLOY that comes in at 62.28 which it's clearly exceeded.

This just shows the folly in trying to catch a top (or bottom) in a strongly trending market. USDJPY did the same - it just blasted through resistances and EWT targets like they weren't there.

I'm just going to wait and see what happens now after getting stopped out some time ago.

Cheers.

You wrote,
....................................

If this is the case then it's likely that there'll be a move towards the 60.86 resistance or the 63.4p one, both shown, though a 5th wave can fail and come up short (the trend line might cause this here).
.......................................

Well Fridays high was 63.30 J and I for one was surprised at Lloyds strength over the 61p government sell figure. Anyway, my question is according to elliots was 63.40 the max for this final wave up and what do we have to consider if this figure is exceeded.

Tight Lines


SRB

Hi Jackozy, Did you go short on this in the end?

I read it in articles like this one referring to the CEO's bonus.

news.sky.com/story/1058568/lloyds-osborn...-taxpayer-stake-sale

But as Jackozy said it doesn't necessarily mean they will start selling at 61p. Who know what they will do. Better off just looking at the charts