DOW

Is this the start of the wave 5.

Trendfriend wrote:
I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

Indeed TrendFriend,

JPM reckons US GPD will shrink 40% *annualised* in Q2. (again, lots depending on Q3/Q4).

I think Mo El Erian nailed recently when asked about the "flick the swtich" analogy that so many Market Bulls hold. Massive the hit to the US economy - bigger than the 1930s. Unemployment is already (just a month in) at 14-15% - heading to 20% which is double the financial crisis.

The bull case which was dismanted was around the following points:

1. re-open the economy quickly (already knocked back)

2. flcking the switch will mean return to near-full recovery mode (not possible if businesses are out of business or made lay-offs. It will take longer and will be sequential)

3. No scars over the longer time (how can something like this be forgotten so quickly?)


The reality:

1. more indebted

2. less productive

3. less globalised

But look, I don't have the charts (yet) to back up a bearish case, and the market is forward thinking and always gives companies and alchemists a pass.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gvsSqvDA/Nlr3J6w+JE=

Be interesting to see which way this goes this week...
looked very bullish last week....

I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

have a good week folks....
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thanks Remo, much appreciated.

When this wave ends, we can work out, where wave 5 will end.

I think the high of the wave is done, slow decline from now, company earnings may be bad.

longterm_view wrote: I normally post with some of my positions showing so it’s easy to see where I entered on a trade...
With waves,,,,,,normally down moves correct in 3 waves and some times it helps to get in early after the 3 wave down as you then can expect the next wave up ...obviously that’s based on up markets m, reverse for down markets...
But based on simple waves you can roughly get an idea of the direction based on strong trends...
Don’t ask me about wave counts...lol....just try and keep it simple....

How’s this for a count? Chart 1.

If it’s 3 waves, Chart 2?[/quote]

I like the second chart....it looks like you have got the idea of waves..,.the abc, would be the 4th wave....so I’d label that so won’t get confused...
Both of your charts can be right...just depends on the time frames ....

longterm_view wrote:

Libero wrote:

longterm_view wrote:
Well that’s the 50% fib gone, only the 61.8% to hold it back.

If not

LongTerm, tell me what number do you have for 61.8%?

Unmployment ticked up again in the US, and it could be at 25% by May. Now, I know the market is forward thinking, but where's the structure, the plan.

lots of questions!

Libero

25220, 61.8% fib on Dow.

Thank you LongTerm - was wondering if the numbers vary based on EoD vs 24 hours.