DOW

Apologies folks,

had hoped to put up more charts, but I'm always glad TrendFriend kicking major behind with some thought provoking charts too! (please don't stop TF!)

For now, as it's fashionable to post a dow chart when it's falling.....

does this look like a H&S formation to you good folks?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u0g7fQBK/

High Resolution Image

WaveSurfer wrote: Thanks, not really one for calling tops, i need to see more price action to determine if this is just a pullback or something bigger. - dow price juncture remain 26700 and 25k - these are important level dow must break n daily > weekly > monthly closes below - no break no lower.

Wait, didn't you say "the top is in" a few days ago! But, yeah, you're right it's all about Price Action.

WaveSurfer wrote: Hence i keep saying its really about the Dow, as its this market along with Russ that remains corrective in structure, where as the SPX and Naz have somewhat diverged and think it may still have more upside left after this pullback - these are impulsive in nature and imp one trend up (3 completed, now in 4Pb, with 5th wave to come) left on both of these before a largest pullback. as for the SPX this could be the end of int 1 of major 3 of primary wave 3, and the pullback to come is a wave 2, whilst dow as things stand currently would be move back down to complete a wave 2 correction that started in march, of course if its start to impulse and make new yearly uptrend that may be a game changer as to whether a revist of march low is likely or not and forms a structure of leading/ending diagonal. the only bearish outlier i can see is this move being completion of a cycle, but for now that is just an outlier.

I gotta say, Wave theory is way above my pay grade, but maybe you're right! All's i know, is that the markets are are tough (for me!)

WaveSurfer wrote: as to where i have been, i been in and out of the forum and been working away and juggling family life, bereavements which hit me really hard, so not had much time - as for the markets i have refined my setup even further - now i can go without trading for months and compensated by a few large trades (swings) when the time is right. this free up my time by focusing on my kids and work respectively.

My condolences man, I hope you and yours are doing better now, and I'm glad you're doing well!

WaveSurfer wrote: should you not hear from me agian, then you will hear from me in 2030/35 when we are dow 100,000

Price is king & BTFD's

regards, WS.

Dow to 100,000! I'm getting in touch with my fund managers now!

p.s. Don't be a stranger dude, 10-15 years is a long time! Do stay in touch! we missed you.

Thanks, not really one for calling tops, i need to see more price action to determine if this is just a pullback or something bigger. - dow price juncture remain 26700 and 25k - these are important level dow must break n daily > weekly > monthly closes below - no break no lower.

Hence i keep saying its really about the Dow, as its this market along with Russ that remains corrective in structure, where as the SPX and Naz have somewhat diverged and think it may still have more upside left after this pullback - these are impulsive in nature and imp one trend up (3 completed, now in 4Pb, with 5th wave to come) left on both of these before a largest pullback. as for the SPX this could be the end of int 1 of major 3 of primary wave 3, and the pullback to come is a wave 2, whilst dow as things stand currently would be move back down to complete a wave 2 correction that started in march, of course if its start to impulse and make new yearly uptrend that may be a game changer as to whether a revist of march low is likely or not and forms a structure of leading/ending diagonal. the only bearish outlier i can see is this move being completion of a cycle, but for now that is just an outlier.

as to where i have been, i been in and out of the forum and been working away and juggling family life, bereavements which hit me really hard, so not had much time - as for the markets i have refined my setup even further - now i can go without trading for months and compensated by a few large trades (swings) when the time is right. this free up my time by focusing on my kids and work respectively.

should you not hear from me agian, then you will hear from me in 2030/35 when we are dow 100,000

Price is king & BTFD's

regards, WS.

Trendfriend wrote: Great call Wavesurfer.....spot on with the top!
Hope your cleaning up these markets

this does look like it could get nasty!!

Libero....did you get a short in then?
i didn't trade this...been out for too long!

atb
trendfriend

Hey TrendFriend, I hope you're keeping safe and well man! (always glad to see your charts and posts!) - Alas, i bottled shorting the Dow for anything meaningful (beyond a scalp). Equally, I did try a quick S&P (ES) trade, but with tight stops, i gave a bit back to the markets. So after all these years, I still trade with my finger on the trigger as I don't trust brokers to act on a stop / limit. (maybe that's just me!)

Waveman! good to see you dude, it's been too long - where have you been?

Nice chart - it made me think - the S&P (or ES rather), seems to have more gaps than the dow... it's not a biggy, but might be a good indicator of sequences on how this market may behave.

I'd say this though, I'll be extra cautious as you've got a mix of bullish retail and X-trillions of Fed protection & easing to pull this market up.

There's never one reason behind this latest decline (from yesterday), I mean one look at tesla's valuations and you'll think its insane, but there was also this:

www.ft.com/content/1746a3c7-3fa2-4db1-ac50-3bbe863f8908

Speculation in tech derivatives points to wild swings

Markets predict elevated volatility after burst of trading in call options on Apple and Tesla

It's an excellent article that nails it.

Here's hoping for more charts. Be Well All.

Great call Wavesurfer.....spot on with the top!
Hope your cleaning up these markets

this does look like it could get nasty!!

Libero....did you get a short in then?
i didn't trade this...been out for too long!

atb
trendfriend

The DOW could not push to new all time highs before some serious selling pressure stopped the music. The move down has some buyers concerned that we are about to take a beating but the trend up is still is tact. A move down through 27400 will change the tone dramatically and trigger another selloff but time will tell if new highs are still on the cards in the near term.