FTSE

Watch that TRI - update chart.....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv3.JPG

chart updated to reflect todays action

WaveSurfer wrote: clearly this is being respected.

this is futures chart - cash will be different.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv2.JPG

some observations:
1. current ftse price range 6340-6396 - top of wave B in 19th of MAY 2008
2. clear cluster of FIB support - highlighted on chart

count:

i'm with Jackozy on the potential count as first preference, however he knows this alt count that i have in mind, preference being what J's already put on i.e Int iv, however it's always good to have an alt option of this potentially being - minute iv of 5 on int III and clearly it's developing.

another interesting observation is the triangle break to downside also indicates Jacko's potential targets... all that needs to be done is reverse the (ABCD with E up may be in play etc) labelling in the posted chart...

if this is min iv (tri break to upside n hold) then v up still to come and potential target being approx 6620....so the market has set it's parameter's and triangulating to cause participants mass confusion.....indeed classic signs of 4th corrective of any degree.

rgds WS

clearly this is being respected.

this is futures chart - cash will be different.

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/FTSE100_altcountv2.JPG

some observations:
1. current ftse price range 6340-6396 - top of wave B in 19th of MAY 2008
2. clear cluster of FIB support - highlighted on chart

count:

i'm with Jackozy on the potential count as first preference, however he knows this alt count that i have in mind, preference being what J's already put on i.e Int iv, however it's always good to have an alt option of this potentially being - minute iv of 5 on int III and clearly it's developing.

another interesting observation is the triangle break to downside also indicates Jacko's potential targets... all that needs to be done is reverse the (ABCD with E up may be in play etc) labelling in the posted chart...

if this is min iv (tri break to upside n hold) then v up still to come and potential target being approx 6620....so the market has set it's parameter's and triangulating to cause participants mass confusion.....indeed classic signs of 4th corrective of any degree.

rgds WS

Hi SE,

IMHO (and it's only that), the Dow will continue to edge higher with retraces along the way. Yeah, OK, I know that sounds weak, but it's in uncharted territory (quite literally lol) so it's not so straight forward to call the top. If my wave counts are right (big IF) then we shouldn't see below 13784 until next year at the earliest.

The reason I'm being a bit circumspect is that I think that the bulk of the bull trend (I mean from 2009 lows) is done now and I have us nearing the top of primary wave 3. Wave 5s can be unpredictable and can fail to exceed wave 3 highs on occasion.

What we have to bear in mind is that it's broken out from its all time high and that's not insignificant. Wavesurfer wrote a post on the Dow's previous breakouts from all time highs so it may be worth you reading the Dow thread to see WS' thoughts there.

At some point, maybe early summer 2014, the Dow will have completed 5 primary waves up from the 6470 low and that would form Cycle wave 1 with Cycle wave 2 to follow. I wouldn't want to be long when that happens as it could be even worse then 2007/8 and will likely last longer. Until then, though, I remain cautiously bullish but it won't be a smooth ride.

ATB

Hi Jackozy - Any insight into where the DOW is heading?
I have moved my Pension into cash in anticipation of a correction that is stubornly failing to materialise!

Thanks

This followed through nicely and I'm a bit surprised nobody's posted this chart after Friday's close as it's performed a perfect backtest of the trendline break at 6426 where I added to shorts:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/FTSEdaily24_03_13.gif

There was bearish RSI divergence as well as in MACD and momentum at the 6533 high and also a double top on the short term chart. However, IMHO this is only a short term dip and I'm targeting the 6216-6258 area where I'll be looking for clues to reverse and go long into late April/early May before another summer correction. This latter is based on EWT so will need verifying at the time.