GKP

Hi Diver,

I think I understand what you're saying. I hope it goes up too but there's not much room for hope in the market!

That should read....

'Another reason to consider the (( B )) to be valid'....... and not the smiley

Jackozy, if you go back to the beginning I think you'll find the 450 high is the 'daddy' A wave, which means the subsequent low at 126 could qualify for the 'big B', making us now in either the beginnings of a C or wave 3. This view is valid all the time the 126 low holds...
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/GKPdaily.png

....also, check out the RSI - easier to see it on your own PC as you'll get a reading - all the time a swing is in being it will not exceed the high or the low of that swing - as in 'daddy A' and 'big B'. So, all the time it doesn't drop below 23.65(on my daily chart - it may be lower on a shorter time-frame)I consider 126 to be the 'big B'.

Another reason to consider the (() to be valid is that it retraces ((A)) between 76.4 and 85.4%.
You may also be interested to know each subsequent A wave - according to my chart - has been retraced almost exactly 76.4%, which includes the current retrace happening right now. So, it has set a pattern, and I am very hopeful for a C wave coming up

Of course, I may be wrong, but, I hold this view until it is invalidated.

PPS As you'll note, that screenshot was taken nearly 2 weeks ago and price has dropped in line since.

Hate to say it but I think this is what's going on here now:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...earcount14_01_14.png

It looks to me like a massive triple three correction (ABW-X-ABY-X-ABZ) which could end at around the 112p mark. IMHO there is now far more evidence for the bear case than the bull one since the recent failure to take out the main downtrend resistance at 191.25p:

To start with the move from 126p to 240p looks to be a clear 3 waves; the drop from 240p to 148.75p seems a clear 5 wave move but these can both be counted differently. The subsequent rise to 196p was to the 50% Fib which is pretty classic wave B stuff and then we've had a failure to break that 196p level after a retrace and while that's allowable, it should have at least tested 196p again to form an ascending triangle. The fact that today it hit 161p (the 100% retrace from 196p) and closed only just above it suggests at best a very weak upward move and, more likely IMHO, a signal that in fact we could be in wave 3 of Z down from 191.25p.

If this count is correct, then I'm afraid that there are all sorts of complicated permutations allowable under EWT including an end above the 126p low so calling the bottom on this could be extremely difficult. What I'm looking for is a set of 5 waves down from the 196p high and that, for me, ought to be the end of this entire correction.

For the bulls, an imminent bounce and close above the mid 180s is required and even then it will need to go on and take out that 196p and then 240p level before they can be confident IMHO.

PS We all know EWT is complicated and only an atlas with many possible routes so be careful trading using that. Remo regularly shows that simplicity is often best and basic S&Rs, 123-lows (good option in this case) and other risk controlled options are usually better.

This had finished bang on the short term trend line on friday . That was a warning sign of a break through...(hindsight)
The best place for any new longs now is at the 150 area only so dont go jumping the gun now.
This area has 2 levels of support converging as you have the main trend line and the horizontal support.
Id use a tight stop of 5 points from here.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gkp27thjan2014.png

good luck