GKP

Hi Jacko.. would be grateful for your view on this "drop from 450 " . Is this the completion of wave 2 of the EWT ? and that you expect a primary wave 3 to start sometime soon and go higher than 450 ? i remember you had mentioned ~ 700p some stage.. is that number still valid from EWT perspective or has it been negated due to the huge fall in the sp. thanks a lot.

Hi MtM,

You're welcome and I apologise if I was patronising in any way - certainly wasn't my intention.

Your stop just below 100p makes sense from a risk averse point of view due to Friday's and Monday's lows (and yesterday's inside bar) but there's a fair chance you could get taken out in the formation of a higher low. Better to have stops below 86p but that depends on your positions size and attitude to risk.

Given that inside bar, the key short term levels are 100p and 110p though trading breaks of those levels ought to be treated on a short term basis. There is no buy signal on this stock at current levels (and I suspect it has some time yet to go before there will be one).

Resistances: 120p, 127p, 134p (Fib), 138/44p (gap).

Supports: 86p, 64p (I don't think we want to consider lower do we?)

I do think this is either at the end of, or near the end of, the big drop from 450p but that's based on my interpretation of the waves. Technically it's really not in a good way at all imho.

PS I did used to post on III under this name but never on those BBs.

Thank you jackozy for the advise.

I kind of went in head first with GKP getting a feel for things but yeah my buy in was at a bad point and I was unsure where to place my stop thought about 99p just below 100p. I could do with learning where to place my stop so will do some research.

I seem to remember a Jackozy from the either KAZ or XTA iii board, did you use to knock around there?

you should see the chartsview user name and not facebook.
unless there is a bug im not aware off..

manfrombrussels wrote: Thanks for the responses guys.

(off topic, I notice the live chat 'who's online', looks intriguing. If I log on with google or facebook you'll see the real me or my chartsview username? )

Thanks for the responses guys.

I can sum up my position re all this by saying, 'I pick well, but trade badly' so obviously I have belief in fundamentals but also in TA.

GKP is an odd one for me to comment on as percentage wise I am a long way up, having picked it up a long time ago on its fundamentals. However, had I had using a decent trading strategy backed by TA I would be a lot further ahead.

Maybe fundamentals come more into play when buying exploration stocks than companies like Kingfisher.

Interesting subject.

(off topic, I notice the live chat 'who's online', looks intriguing. If I log on with google or facebook you'll see the real me or my chartsview username? )

Hi MFB,

It's a difficult question to answer imho. I'm certain you don't need to know anything about fundamentals to be able to make money in the markets, but equally if you're good at the fundies then you can do the same a la Mr Buffett though you probably need a much longer term view.

Question: how has knowing GKP's fundamentals helped anyone make money on this share in 4.5 years?

As another example, Kingfisher Group is on remo's share tips as a possible short this week. It announced results today of approx 4.1% increase in sales, revenue, profit or something or other. That's fundamentally good news, right? However, unless it closes above 421p the stock will almost certainly drop. It could be making an exhaustion candle as I type (we have to wait and ee where it closes).

Both fundamentals and TA have their place in the market but they are not to be confused. Often news, whether good or bad, gets sold into. Sometimes TA predicts a price move and then news comes along to make it happen. Sometimes you get big price moves with no news at all (though investors will usually seek to justify such price moves through some vague and largely irrelevant snippet from an obscure blog).

The market is the market and there's no point in saying that a share *ought* to go up because the fundamentals are good. It just doesn't often work like that.

I remember a III poster called stopthismadness saying once: the only fundamental factors which affect share price movement over anything but the short term are company game changers (eg a new oil discovery in Aug 2009 lol). Everything else just provides a trading opportunity. Another way of looking at this is the "efficient market" theory: all the complexities of the fundamentals are already priced in to the market. You therefore don't need to know them. All you need is to be able to read the price history to see whether the company is fundamentally on the up or on the down. It's much easier to interpret one variable than hundreds.

Just my view. It's very difficult to effectively trade a share whose fundamentals you know. Fundies give you a bias which may not be apparent in the price action.