GKP

Hi Ian Just wondering what a three outside down pattern is or signifies...presumably bearish?

The way this has retraced more than 50% from 116.75, I now doubt this is a 5 way impulse move, rather an ABC....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...%20%281Hjuly2%29.png

.....The way I've drawn the extension on this chart will probably need amending as the SP progresses as there is no guarantee it has bottomed out at 97.25, even thought that marks a 50% retracement of the move up from 78.25. As it stands the extension shows a predicted 141.75 at the 100%, which is pretty close to the 140 resistance established from way-back.

Keep an open mind and let's see what develops. I'm certainly not suggesting this chart is set in stone, more a work in progress, and very much subject to amendment. It will be interesting to see what develops.

We seem to be approaching another crossroads already. Fast rise, fast fall. Looks like 109 held firm on closing basis.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...DZJJqXtB4G0+XLAoai0=

Bearish engulfing pattern will become a three outside down pattern today with a close below 104.75. Looks certain to me even this early in the day.

Low so far today of 97.25 is the retrace point from 108.50 on the initial rise. Below this there is the ma50 at 92 but IMO a slightly more solid support is in the 90 area with a declining trendline (red) and ma20. Look to RSI for a retest of the breakout for guidance.

More solid support can be found in the 80/81 area.

F4T

PS: 61.8% fib is at 93 so a close below this points us squarely to a 100% retrace to 78.25

Apologies for being a little patchy with my explanation, alas it's not one of my strong points, and I'm usually short of time due to dashing here and there as a taxi driver for my young sons. What I should have said is the possible endings for waves are places were one should be prepared for something to happen; points were you might want to exit if you're being conservative for example.

F4T,

The 50% retrace you expect should come on completion of the 5 way impulse move in the shape of an ABC correction. Wave 4's do not usually exceed 38.2%.

Once again, I would emphasize this is an hourly chart we have been discussing, which would normally be used for intraday trading or judging entries for swing trades.

SRB,

After the completion of a wave 3 expect an ABC 3 way correction.

Yes, if we continue above then we could still be in wave 3 or, wave 5 could also extend. Nothing set in stone here I'm afraid